California House Races 2014

2012 was a fantastic year for Democrats in California. Obama won 60% of the vote here, Democrats won 2/3 majorities in the State Assembly and State Senate and Democrats gained four U.S. House seats (from 2002-10, they gained only one.) Democrats overperformed expectations by winning all the tossup House seats and winning Assembly seats such as one in formerly Republican leaning Lancaster. Democrats have even more opportunities in 2014 though and can gain three more U.S. House seats if everything goes right. Having everything go right does not happen often but in 2012, most projections showed Democrats gaining two House seats in California but they gained four, winning CA-36 and CA-7 which were previously thought to be Republican leaning tossups. They also performed well in CA-26 and CA-52, two districts with many upscale white voters. These districts voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but in 2010, voted for Whitman in the Gubernatorial so Democrats need to prevent the upscale voters from reverting back to the Republicans in 2014. Also, Democrats need to retain those seats because the base will have lower turnout in 2014 and midterms always have a more conservative electorate. With more resources in 2014 devoted to House races than in 2012 though, Democrats stand a strong chance to retain their wins in 2012 and expand on their 38-15 seat majority of California's Congressional delegation.

Map of California's congressional districts. Source:

Here is an interactive map of California's current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/CA

Republican held seats:

Tossup/Tilt Democratic (1 seat)

CA-31 Rep. Gary Miller (R) Redlands, San Bernadino, Rancho Cucamonga
Partisan Stats: Obama 57%, Romney 41% (2012 Presidential results by district for California are here)
Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Brown 49%, Whitman 44%
(2008 and 2010 district by district results + demographics are here)

The 31st district has a strong Democratic lean (even Whitman could not win it,) and it was one of the few districts where the President performed better in 2012 than he did in 2008. It is trending Democratic quickly too with a 49% Hispanic population so why does a Republican represent it? California's top two primary system is the answer. The top two vote receivers regardless of party run for the seat and in the 2012 primary, the top two vote receivers were Republicans. The Democratic field was split and Pete Aguilar (D), the Redlands Mayor was the top Democrat in that race. Democrats are working to convince him to run again and this time, two Republicans will not be the top two vote receivers. Miller does not even have a looming primary challenge. The district's lean should be enough to put Aguilar over the top in the general election if he runs although as Democrats learned in 2012, they can take nothing for granted in this district.

Lean Republican

CA-10 Jeff Denham (R) Modesto, Tracy
Partisan stats: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Brown 43%, Whitman 49%

Democrats nominated Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D) in 2012 and Hernandez lost by only 5 points. Hernandez may run again for this seat but it is difficult to see how 2014 should be more favorable to him than 2012 was. President Obama won the district in 2012 but Denham is popular here and convinced enough voters to ticket split even while Hernandez had strong ads, a strong backstory and strong fundraising. Voters have ticket split for Denham in the past when he represented a State Senate seat that Obama won with 59% in 2008 and even Kerry carried in 2004 so it was not a major surprise. It shows how difficult it will be to defeat  Denham though but since the demographics of the district are changing, Democrats should win here eventually.

CA-21 David Valadao (R) Bakersfield, Kings County
Partisan Stats: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Brown 47%, Whitman 44%

The 21st district is 70% Hispanic, the Hispanic population is growing quickly and the district is trending Democratic. Why does a Republican represent this district? The Hispanic turnout here is very low and the Hispanics in the Central Valley are more likely to ticket split than Hispanics in Los Angeles and Democrats nominated John Hernandez (D) who received little help from the DCCC and had ethics issues. The Democratic preferred candidate Michael Rubio (D) declined running due to family concerns. He also resigned the State Assembly where he served in 2012 to become a lobbyist for Chevron, taking him out of consideration in 2014. For 2014 though, Democrats need to nominate a better fundraiser than Hernandez and a possible candidate is Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong (D) who lost the 2012 primary to Hernandez. Other possible candidates include Fran Florez (D). Democrats have been attacking Valadao early seeing an opportunity in this district. The problem for Democrats is that Hispanic turnout in California tends to drop in midterms so whoever they nominate has to turnout Hispanics and prevent Valadao from winning them.

Democratic held seats:

Tossup/Tilt Democratic

CA-36 Raul Ruiz (D) Coachella, Palm Springs
Obama 51%, Romney 48%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Brown 43%, Whitman 49%

This seat barely supported President Obama in 2012, Ruiz is a freshman Congressman, this district has a large Hispanic population and the Hispanic turnout should be lower in 2014 so Republicans should be ready to target this seat. They should not underestimate Ruiz though because he overperformed President Obama not against a far right candidate in the mold of Michelle Bachmann but Mary Bono Mack (R), a moderate candidate who had represented the district since the 90s. This indicates that if even Bono Mack cannot hold this seat, how could a far right tea party candidate win it back? (and it is unlikely any moderate candidate can win a Republican primary in this climate and Bono Mack does not seem interested in running.) Also, with the Hispanic population here growing very quickly, Republicans will be unable to hold this seat long even if they win in 2014.

(Lean Democratic)

CA-07 Ami Bera (D) Sacramento suburbs
Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Brown 49%, Whitman 44%

In the 2006 edition of the Almanac of American Politics, a similar configuration to this district was called "safely Republican." In 2012, Dr. Ami Bera won this district against former Rep. Dan Lungren (R), defeating a man who had served as CA Attorney General in the 1990s and had 18 years of experience in the U.S. House. Bera won not only by his strong fundraising skills, he won by courting the new voters in the Sacramento suburbs in a district that was >70% white in 2000 but in 2010 was close to 60% White. Even in the 2010 midterms, this district voted for Gov. Jerry Brown (D). This district is listed at Lean Democratic for now due to the close nature of this district even though no strong Republican has stepped up to challenge Bera. Potential candidates Republicans may consider courting could be vocal Prop 8 supporter Andy Pugno (R) who ran for State Assembly in 2010 or State Assemblywoman Beth Gaines (R). The issue for Republicans though is that their bench has weakened recently in the Sacramento suburbs because they lost their State Assembly districts there in the late 2000s. One  possibility is 2012 Senate candidate Elizabeth Emken who expressed interest in running. Emken ran for office twice, first for U.S. House and came in last place in the Republican primary and ran for Senate in 2012, losing by 24 points. She may not be a major threat.

CA-26 Julia Brownley (D) Ventura, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks
Obama 54%, Romney 43%
Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Brown 46%, Whitman 47%

This was one of the most interesting races of 2012 where State Senator Tony Strickland (R) (who I met on January 23rd actually at a panel discussing President Obama's 2nd term,) Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (I) and State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faced each other in the top two primary. Brownley and Strickland went to the general election and Brownley won by showing Strickland's extremist views on women's rights. Brownley should probably win reelection because she is a good fit for the district and Strickland was an extremely difficult candidate to beat, proving Brownley can handle tough opponents. This race may move into the likely Democratic column soon.


CA-52 Scott Peters (D) northern San Diego
Obama 52%, Romney 46%
Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Brown 43%, Whitman 50%

Peters fought a hard battle to win this seat against Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) even though Bilbray is moderate and well respected in the San Diego area. Also, this district is trending Democratic which should help Peters but the issue for him is that San Diego votes more Republican during midterm races (Bilbray won easily in 2010 and Whitman performed well too.) Republicans however are working hard to beat Peters and potential candidates include San Diego City Councilman Kevin Faulconer (R) and former councilman Carl DeMaio (R). DeMaio ran for mayor in 2012. While he lost the mayor's race by 5 points, he carried the portion of San Diego in CA-52 56%-43% so he is popular here.



Overall, how does the 2014 cycle look in California 20 months until Election Day? Both parties have opportunities with Democrats hoping to gain Republican held seats where they ran poor campaigns in 2012  and Republicans are hoping to win back seats they lost in 2012 due to changing demographics and poor candidates. What Republicans must worry about though is that even if they prevent Democrats from turning out in 2014 and gain a few seats, California's changing demographics and the Republicans' inability to win over the new demographics mean that in 2016, Republicans could lose those seats again and lose more seats they thought were safely Republican. In 2012, Republicans lost an Assembly seat in Palmdale with a fast growing Hispanic population, despite even Democratic pundits predicting Republicans would hold that seat. In 2016, Rep. Buck McKeon (R) representing Palmdale may face a very close race too, he won only 54% in 2012 against an underfunded challenger despite nearly no pundits predicting a single digit margin for him. Even running Hispanic candidates is not always a solution, Republicans ran Hispanic Abel Maldonado (R) in the 24th district which was a near tie between Brown and Whitman. Maldonado was moderate and well known throughout the district yet he lost by ten points. Another plus for the Democrats is that Organizing for Action, the President's campaign arm which helped him win in 2012 but focused little on the House races will be devoting more energy to the House races in 2014 and will be extremely helpful in districts such as California's by helping Democrats register and turnout the new demographics moving into California.

Minnesota Redistricting 7-1 Democratic

After a yearlong absence, my redistricting map posts are back!

Although the 2011 redistricting season has passed and the next redistricting will take place around 2020, Minnesota has the possibility of undergoing mid decade redistricting. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats had split control of the state Government with Democrats controlling the Governorship and Republicans controlling the Legislature. Democrats now control the Legislature though so they have the trifecta. Currently, the map is 5-3 Democratic but with a bit of redistricting, Democrats can bring it up to 7-1 Democratic without splitting St. Paul and Minneapolis which is a big no no in Minnesota redistricting. I am not sure if Minnesota will undergo mid decade redistricting but if Minnesota did, I would recommend this map. In this map, besides not splitting the Twin Cities, I created a Republican vote sink in the western suburbs that combined John Kline's home with most of Michelle Bachmann's district. I also made the 3rd district more Democratic and changed its configuration greatly. The reason is that many of the incumbents such as Erik Paulsen (R) and John Kline (R) have become entrenched so I added unfamiliar territory to their districts. Anyway, here is the map.

Statewide

Data for the districts (the AA stands for African American.)

Minnesota's 1st District: Tim Walz (D) Rochester, southern Minnesota (blue)

Although this district barely voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Walz should probably win here. He has become entrenched after his 2006 win and won easily in 2010 and 2012. This district undergoes minimal changes, losing two conservative western rural counties and replacing them with two conservative counties Sibley and LeSeur. They do not alter the district makeup much and Walz keeps most of his constituents. 

Likely Democratic

Twin Cities and exurbs

Minnesota's 2nd District: Vacant Northfield, Dakota County, Washington County (green) 

This district contains parts of Rep. John Kline's (R) current district but Kline may not run here because this district supported Obama by 9 points in 2008 (Obama won Minnesota by 9 points in 2008 so this matches his statewide average,) and Kline's home of Lakeville is in the more conservative 6th district. Kline faced a tougher reelection campaign than expected in 2012, winning with 54% of the vote. This new district though adds unfamiliar territory for Kline where he is not entrenched while eliminating Scott and Goodhue Counties which gave him a combined 21,000 vote margin (his overall margin was 29,000 votes.) The 2nd district also loses conservative parts of Dakota County. Kline won 52% in Dakota County. The district retains Democratic parts of Rice County though which voted 40% for Kline. The 2nd district also adds new territory including central Washington County as well as some Democratic leaning St. Paul suburbs in Ramsey County. These voters are unfamiliar with Kline and it will be harder for him to win them. The 2008 Obama percentage goes up from 51% to 53% as well. The higher percentage may encourage some strong Democrats to run which will be hard for Kline because he has not faced a tough challenge since 2002. If Kline opts for the 6th district, he will have a difficult primary with Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) but since most of the new 6th district is new territory for her, she may have trouble winning the primary, especially if she is too extreme. 

Tossup/Tilt Democratic if Kline runs, Lean Democratic if not 

Minnesota's 3rd District: Vacant Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids (purple)

Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) will probably run in this district after it is increased from 50% to 56% Obama but he probably will lose. The reason is that he was entrenched in a swing district that contained the outer suburbs in Hennepin County so he did well there but the 3rd district adds Edina and a few other heavily Democratic suburbs bordering Minneapolis. The 3rd district also loses the conservative exurbs in western Hennepin County including Eden Prairie, Paulsen's home. These stronger Democratic lines should attract a strong Democratic challenger instead of the token opposition Paulsen faced in 2010 and 2012. The 3rd is at 56% Obama even without splitting Minneapolis and although it splits counties, I had to do so for population reasons.
Lean Democratic

Minnesota's 4th District: Betty McCollum (D) St. Paul, northern Anoka County (red)
This district loses most of the close in St. Paul suburbs and gains conservative areas such as northern Anoka County and Isanti County to remove them from the 6th and 8th districts. These changes bring down Obama's 2008 percentage to 58.7% and his 2012 percentage is probably 56%-57%. St. Paul does not ticket split in local races and it has high turnout so it should be enough to anchor McCollum. She may have to fight a bit more to keep her seat but she should still win.

Minnesota's 5th District: Keith Ellison (D) vs. Erik Paulsen (R) Minneapolis, Eden Prairie (yellow)
I placed Paulsen's home in this district but I doubt Paulsen would run in this district which voted 68% for Obama. The 5th district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic suburbs such as Edina and gains western Hennepin County which is exurban, conservative and resembles Sherburne County more than it resembles Minneapolis. These exurban areas also are staunchly Republican (especially in local races unlike the 7th district which is Republican nationally but Democratic in local races.) These changes make the 3rd district more Democratic while keeping the 5th safely in Democratic hands. The 5th also does not split any counties and it splits as few towns as possible, keeping Eden Prairie and Bloomington 100% intact.

Minnesota's 6th District: John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R): Lakeville, Carver County, Sherburne County (teal)
Bachmann and Kline will probably face each other in this extremely conservative district. It is 1 point more Republican than Bachmann's current district so Bachmann would be even safer here. I wanted to sacrifice her though for opening up the 2nd and 3rd districts to Democratic challenges. Also, Kline's home is in the district so he may prefer to run here and he would face an easy reelection if he won the primary. Bachmann will be able to fundraise easily but if the Republican Party does try to moderate itself, Bachmann may be in trouble. She is not popular in her district after her Presidential run (she won by only two points in 2012 despite her money advantage,) so if Kline can exploit that (and win big margins in his current district and Carver County which he represented until 2010,) he could win.

Minnesota 7th District: Collin Peterson (D) west Minnesota (gray)
Besides trading a few counties around the edges, the 7th district remains the same. These counties may lean Republican but they are strongly Democratic in statewide and local races. It is still Republican leaning but Peterson is very popular and he should hold it as long as he is in office.

Minnesota's 8th District: Rick Nolan (D) St. Cloud, Duluth, northeastern Minnesota (light purple)
I strengthened Nolan a bit by removing fast growing exurban areas in Chisago and Isanti Counties. I then added St. Cloud which is a swing area (the counties around it are Republican because the exurbs there are conservative even though the city of St. Cloud is pretty even politically.) Besides these changes, the district remains centered around the Iron Range. Nolan performed fine here in 2012, winning by 8 points against former Rep. Chip Craavack (R) but this district is still moving away from the Democrats so removing Isanti and part of Chisago will help Nolan because those areas are fast growing and trending Republican quickly. 

Outlook for 2014 Senate Races

After an amazing 2012 election, it is already time to start previewing the 2014 Senate races. I have not posted many posts analyzing the 2012 election results yet because I like to wait until all the votes are tallied. In 2014 though, Democrats face a tough map. Like 2012, the majority of the seats up for reelection are held by Democrats and like 2012, some of those Democrats such as Kent Conrad (D) ND and Claire McCaskill (D)-MO, represented Republican leaning states which turned out strongly for Romney. In the beginning of 2011, most pundits were expecting a Republican takeover of the Senate. However, Republican candidate implosions (such as Todd Akin's,) and stronger than expected Democratic candidates (such as Heidi Heitkamp,) allowed the Democrats to retain the Senate and even gain two seats. Another point that compares this election to the 2004 election is that in 2004, Republicans gained seats across the South to create a string of red seats from Oklahoma to North Carolina which helped the Republicans have 55 seats. In 2012 though, Democrats have a string of seats across the North from Massachusetts to Montana which helped give them 55 seats.

Anyway, it is possible Democrats could surprise conventional wisdom and protect their seats in 2014 but it is a harder task than it was in 2012. In 2008, Democrats swept almost all of the competitive races so the 13 seats that Republicans do have up (the Democrats have 20,) are mostly in solidly Republican states such as Wyoming, Alabama and Kansas where Democrats are not going to win. The only opportunity for the Democrats is in Maine where moderate Susan Collins (R) could decide to retire. Another possibility is Georgia with Saxby Chambliss (R) where Democrats came within three points of unseating him in 2008. That year though, there was high African American turnout which is unlikely in 2014. Still, Georgia is having an influx of African Americans and Hispanics and Romney won by 7 points in 2014 when most observers predicted a 10-12 point victory. I am not going to predict Georgia as competitive just yet but if Democrats find a strong candidate to challenge Chambliss, that race could become interesting. As for the Republicans, they have a large range of seats they can win in such as Alaska, Arkansas North Carolina, South Dakota, Minnesota, West Virginia They need to gain six seats though and Democrats seem favored to prevent that. They have a disadvantage in South Dakota but in states such as Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina, Democrats may be unpopular nationally but the Senate candidates are popular statewide. Anyway, italicized names are potential retirement and here are the ratings:

My ratings standards:

Safe: the incumbent party will win easily, either the incumbent is too popular, the state is too blue or red and there is no potential candidate who can cross the party lines.

Likely: the incumbent party is heavily favored but retirement and/or the right candidate can make a competitive race.

Lean: this race is competitive now but one party is slightly favored.

Tossup: this race is too close to call

Dark blue =Safe Democratic

Blue=Likely Democratic

Light blue=Lean Democratic

Purple=Tossup

Red=Likely Republican

Dark Red=Safe Republican

Safe Democratic

Delaware Chris Coons (D): Republicans had their chance here in 2010 but they blew it by nominating Christine O'Donnell (R) who proved that telling voters "I'm not a witch, I'm you," is not a persuasive argument. Future candidates, please take note.

Illinois Richard Durbin (D): Illinois may have an unpopular Democratic Governor but the Majority Whip Durbin should have no trouble winning reelection here.

New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D): Lautenberg will be 90 in 2014 so he may retire and if he does, the seat should remain in Democratic hands unless Gov. Chris Christie (R) decides to run which is extremely unlikely because he will be preparing for the 2016 Presidential race.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D): Merkley's approval ratings are strong enough at 50/41 but a recent PPP poll shows Merkley with a 4 and 5 point leads over Rep. Greg Walden (R) and former Sen. Gordon Smith (R). While Walden and Smith can run a competitive race, Walden is running the NRCC so he is too busy to run for Senate and Smith has expressed no interest in running. The PPP poll tests other Republican candidates too but Merkley leads all of them by 17+ points. Oregon normally would be at Likely D seeing how Republicans have run close statewide races in 2008 and 2010 but since Merkley has no real opposition, the race is at Safe D.

Rhode Island Jack Reed (D): Republicans have no game in Rhode Island, one of the five most Democratic states. The only danger sign for Reed is if Gov. Lincoln Chaffee (I) ran but due to Chaffee's low approval ratings (at least for now because Governor's approval ratings change faster than Romney's platform does,) I expect Reed to win easily.

Likely Democratic

Colorado Mark Udall (D): Colorado has been trending toward the Democrats recently. In 2010, Democrats retained a Senate seat they were expected to lose and in 2012, Obama won Colorado by 5 points even though pundits said it would be a nailbiter (Colorado's margin was only two points behind Georgia's 7 point Romney margin and no pundit called Georgia a target state,) and Democrats won the legislature. Also, Udall leads by 7 points against a Generic Republican according to a PPP poll on November 4th. A potential Republican candidate is Rep. Cory Gardner (R). However, these Colorado Republican House members do not do well in statewide races. For example, Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) lost in the 2006 gubernatorial race, Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) lost in the 2008 Senatorial race and Rep. Scott McInnis (R) lost in the 2010 gubernatorial primary. I am not a big fan of Colorado's Republican bench and I do not see Udall losing since Republican have not won a Senatorial race in Colorado since 2002.

Iowa Tom Harkin (D): Iowa is well known as a swing state but Harkin has been a Senator since 1984 and will be 74 years old on Election Day in 2014. He has also been quiet about retirement plans but many Senators serve well into their 70s and 80s (hello Frank Lautenberg, Daniel Inouye, Dianne Feinstein etc.) Harkin should be able to fend off Republican challenges due to his popularity but if he retires, expect this race to move to tossup immediately. Potential Republican candidates include conservative firebrand Rep. Steve King (R), popular Rep. Tom Latham (R) and Gov. Terry Bransted (R). Potential Democratic candidates may include Rep. Bruce Braeley (D), Rep. Dave Loesbeck (D) and Christie Vilsack (D), the former Iowa first lady who ran against King in 2012.

Massachusetts John Kerry (D): Kerry is popular enough to win reelection but if he is appointed to Secretary of State by the President, then Massachusetts will have an open Senate seat with a special election. We all remember how the last special election in Massachusetts turned out where Scott Brown (R) shocked everyone by defeating Attorney General Martha Coakley (D). Brown lost his Senate race in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren (D) by 8 points even though Warren may have been too liberal so Brown may be weaker than pundits believe. Democrats have a good list of potential candidates though including Rep. Edward Markey (D), Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and Rep. Edward Capuano who ran in the 2009 Special Election primary. A few pundits mentioned Coakley but she is more interested in running for Governor so many Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief now. Anyway, as long as Kerry stays in the Senate, he should win easily. If it is an open seat though and Brown runs, I am moving this race to Lean Democratic. Markey is a good fundraiser and the other Democrats should beat Brown but they will have to fight a real race. The race will be at Likely Democratic for now though.

Michigan Carl Levin (D): Like Iowa, this is another state with an older Democratic incumbent who should win easily if he runs but would create a competitive race if he retires. Like Harkin, Levin has been quiet about his retirement plans. Republicans have a large bench but it is weaker than it looks (as the 2012 Senate race showed. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) was supposed to be a strong candidate but he ran a racist ad  which ruined his campaign.) Still, Republicans could run Rep. Candice Miller (R) who is a strong fundraiser or Rep. Mike Rogers (R) who is very popular in his swing district. Democrats though could run Rep. Gary Peters (D) but besides that, they do not have a strong bench. Still, Michigan's Democratic lean means this race should lean Democratic if Levin retires.

New Mexico Tom Udall (D): Udall's approval ratings are in the low 50s right now which are good numbers in the blue leaning state of New Mexico. This state used to be a swing state in the early 2000s but has shifted toward the Democrats in the last few years as the Hispanic population shifted toward the Democrats. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) could try at this seat but she lost by 6 points in the 2012 Senate race so she probably would not beat Udall. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) however could run a real challenge against Udall because her approval ratings are high (although they could change quickly because gubernatorial approval ratings are volatile,) but there has been no noise from her about running.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D): New Hampshire is such a bellwether state. It mirrors whichever party does well. For example, it went strongly Democratic in 2006, 2008 and 2012 while the Republicans did well in 2010. Midterms usually favor Republicans but Shaheen may be able to win. Her approval ratings are hovering around 50 and she leads a generic Republican opponent by 10 (the same poll sample showed Gubernatorial candidate Maggie Hassan (D) leading by 4 but Hassan won by 13 so this sample favored Republicans so Shaheen leads a generic Republican by more than 10.) Shaheen may face a challenge from former Sen. John Sunumu (R) but PPP shows Shaheen leading 53%-42% so Shaheen should win reelection as long as the Republican winds do not shift too far to the right.

Virginia: Mark Warner (D): Virginia may be a swing state but Warner is extremely popular here, mostly due to his strong career as Governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. He won the Senate seat in 2008 with 65% of the vote against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). In Virginia, the Governors have always run for Senate (Charles Robb (D), George Allen (R), Mark Warner (D) and Tim Kaine (D)) and it may happen again because Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) is term limited out so he may challenge Warner. If the Republicans nominate an unknown candidate, I will move this race to 'Safe Democratic' but McDonnell should give Warner a race (although I expect Warner to win.) McDonnell is popular but Warner is more popular.

Lean Democratic:

Arkansas Mark Pryor (D): Pryor faced no Republican opponent in 2008 but he will not be as lucky in 2014. In 2008, Arkansas's congressional delegation was 3-1 Democratic and Democrats controlled the Legislature. In 2012, Republicans control the congressional delegation 4-0 and the Legislature. Rep. Tim Griffin (R), announced he will not run, helping Pryor because Griffin would have been a formidable foe. Still, Reps. Tom Cotton (R) and Steve Womack (R) are potential candidates. In 2010, Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) lost and Republicans hope Pryor will follow her path. Pryor though is more popular than Lincoln and is from a strong political family. He has been moderate but did not anger the base the way Lincoln did. No polls have been released so it is difficult to assess the race but Pryor seems to have an edge.

Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D): Why am I placing Landrieu's seat in the Lean Democratic category despite Louisiana’s strong Republican bent? The reason is that Landrieu has become entrenched after representing Louisiana since 1996 and her political family is popular (her father Moon Landrieu (D) was Governor and her brother Mitch Landrieu (D) is mayor of New Orleans.) She also is popular in the New Orleans metropolitan area and can make inroads in the conservative New Orleans suburbs. Potential Republican candidates include Reps. Charles Boustany (R), Bill Cassidy (R) and John Fleming (R) (one of Fleming's aides said Fleming is interested.) Although the Republicans have many potential candidates, none of them have the star power needed to beat Landrieu but they should run a close race. Also, Louisiana has jungle primaries were candidates of all parties are on the same ballot and if no one receives 50% or more, they have another election between the top two in a month.

Minnesota: Al Franken (D): Franken's approval ratings are at 47/39 and 48%-42% against a generic Republican according to a recent PPP poll so Franken has more supporters than opponents but not by a large margin. Franken probably will win, especially if Michelle Bachmann (R) decides to challenge him. It is possible former Senator Norm Coleman (R) will run after losing in 2008 but he has been quiet about the race and Minnesota Republicans think he is more likely to run for Governor. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) stated he will not run but two strong potential candidates include Reps. John Kline (R) and Erik Paulsen (R). Neither Paulsen nor Kline have said they will not run but neither of them said they will. Paulsen could be the Mark Kirk of Minnesota because of his popularity in a swing district and his appeal to moderates (although his voting record is conservative.) Still, I expect Franken to win but it could be close.

Montana Max Baucus (D): Baucus has been a Senator from Montana since 1978 but he may face a tough race in 2014 even though he has fallen below 55% of the vote only once since his 1974 House election. His popularity sank because of the healthcare controversy and he has a 41/44 approval rating. He also leads a generic Republican 45/42 which means Republicans have a chance to beat Baucus but their bench is weak. Republicans ran their strongest candidate former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) who lost the 2012 Senate race by 4. Democrats also won all statewide offices except Attorney General in 2012. Also, the influx of Democrats from California and other west coast states is helping Montana become less red. Possible Republican candidates include Attorney General Tim Fox (R), U.S. House Freshman Steve Daines (R) (although he may not be inclined to run after freshman Rick Berg (R) ran for Senate in ND and lost,) and Rehberg (Rehberg challenged Baucus in 1996 and lost though.) Another possibility is a primary challenge from former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) because Schweitzer has not quashed any rumors about running although he may be more interested in higher office. Overall, Baucus's low approval ratings put this race at Lean Democratic but the weak Republican bench prevents it from reaching tossup. Republicans also usually underestimate how Montana ticketsplits for Republican Presidential candidates and Democratic statewide candidates. Republicans have not won a single Gubernatorial or Senatorial contest since 2000.

Tossup

Alaska Mark Begich (D): If anyone is encouraged by Alaska's swing toward Obama (it was one of the five states where Obama performed better in 2012 than in 2008. He lost by 13 points in 2012 instead of by 20 in 2008,) Begich should be happy. In 2008, he barely won against Sen. Ted Stevens (R) who was extremely corrupt and represented Alaska since the 1960s. Begich has kept a moderate profile and will certainly be hard to beat. The Republicans though are already lining up to challenge him including Gov. Sean Parnell (R) and 2010 Senate candidate Joe Miller (R). Democrats should hope Miller gets the nomination because he is a far right conservative who might go the road of Todd Akin (R), Richard Mourdock (R) and Sharron Angle (R). Parnell though is a saner Republican so he would be harder to beat.

North Carolina Kay Hagan (D): The North Carolina Democratic Party took a beating recently with Republicans seizing control of the Governorship and State Legislature. Even Obama could not win North Carolina despite high turnout in the Democratic areas. In 2014, Democratic turnout will be lower but Hagan could make up for it with crossover support in rural eastern North Carolina (many white voters there support Democrats in statewide races.) Also, she has announced she will run.  Republicans though have a large bench of Congressmen looking to move up in the Senate.

South Dakota Tim Johnson (D): Johnson is no stranger to tough races. He faced two close elections in 1996 and 2002 and emerged successfully. His opponent though is popular former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) who recently announced his candidacy so Johnson faces a tough race. There were speculations he would retire but his statement suggests Johnson plans to stay in the race. If Johnson retires, Democrats could recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) to run. Although Rounds is popular, he is very conservative and in 2006 signed a bill banning abortion, even in cases of rape. Voters had other ideas and overturned the bill 44%-56%. Johnson may run ads comparing Rounds's abortion positions with Akin's and Mourdock's. Also, Johnson needs to turn out the Native American voters because in 2002, they provided his winning margin. Overall, although South Dakota is a Republican state, the Dakotas will ticket split for Senate races as shown with Heidi Heitkamp's win in North Dakota so Johnson has a strong shot. I think Democrats are overreacting a bit here, Johnson probably will win although it could be close. If it is a Republican wave year, Republicans should win this though.

West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D): Rep. Shelley Moore Captio (R) announced her candidacy for Senate. Rockefeller has served since 1984, has more than enough money but pundits say he is too liberal for West Virginia. I believe he is an institution in West Virginia but he needs to prepare for a tough race and he is in his mid 70s. However, Capito is moderate which helps her in the general election but since she is pro choice and West Virginia is a socially conservative state, I expect she will receive a challenge from the right such as 2010 and 2012 Senate candidate John Raese (R). Unless the tea party movement shrinks, a right wing challenger should be able to knock her off because I do not see how a socially conservative state such as West Virginia can nominate a pro choice Republican. As for Rockefeller's plans, he may decide to retire and has been quiet about his plans. If he does retire, Democrats could nominate former Sen. Carte Goodwin (D) or Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) for the seat. Overall, I think Capito is overhyped because she will get attacked by the right and it will be hard to beat Rockefeller because West Virginia still supports Democrats for statewide offices (and Rockefeller can self-fund.) Also, Capito probably announced early because she was worried about a conservative primary challenge and wanted to clear the field.

Likely Republican:

Georgia Saxby Chambliss: Although Chambliss seems safe enough from Democrats (he won in 2008 despite the high African American turnout,) Chambliss may not be safe enough from a Republican challenge on the right. The teabaggers may run a candidate because Chambliss may not follow the Norquist pledge. Potential candidates include 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel (R), Rep. Tom Price (R), conservative editor of RedState Erick Erickson (R) and former Presidential candidate Herman Cain (R). A PPP poll showed Chambliss leads all challengers except Cain and 43%-38% of Republicans wanted a more conservative nominee. If Chambliss loses the primary, Democrats have a shot because if the Republican candidate is too extreme, Democrats could win the way they did in Indiana and Missouri. A potential candidate is Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed (D). Price leads by only 5 in the PPP poll against Reed so Reed could make it close (but Chambliss leads Reed by 15.) The Gubernatorial polling numbers are more favorable for Democrats though so Reed may run there.

Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R): Democrats would love to defeat the Minority Leader of the Senate and the Minority Leader of Americans who's first priority is to make Obama a one term President. McConnell may receive a challenge on the right but no candidate has emerged. For the Democrats though, actress and Kentucky native Ashley Judd (D) may run for the seat. She is well known, can attract national attention to this race and can raise money. Kentuckians though are not a fan of Hollywood Stars running for office (as shown in 2004 when George Clooney's Father Nick Clooney (D) ran for U.S. House and lost after Republicans tied him to Hollywood.) Still, Judd has real Kentucky roots and will be able to compete with McConnell on the airwaves (and a recent PPP poll shows her within four points of McConnell.)  Also, Kentucky has a tendency to support Democrats in statewide races, as shown when Democrats swept all but one statewide office in 2011. If she decides to run, this race will automatically move to Lean Republican but since Judd has not officially announced, this race remains at Likely Republican. Democrats control all but one statewide office in Kentucky but no candidate there has stepped forward to challenge McConnell.

Maine Susan Collins (R): Collins is very popular in Maine. In 2008, she won 62%-38% against a strong candidate, Rep. Tom Allen (D) so Collins should probably win again and PPP's early November poll gave Collins a 65% approval rating. If Collins decides to run, she will win. If she retires though, Democrats have a great chance to win and I will immediately move the race to Lean Democratic. Potential Democratic candidates include Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) and Rep. Michael McAuland (D). Pingree should be a strong candidate due to her popularity. Also, Collins may get a primary challenge from the right due to her moderate views. Although conventional wisdom says Maine is a moderate state, it does have its conservatives (Maine elected the unpopular teabagger Governor Paul LePage (R). 2012 Senate candidate Charlie Summers (R) is a potential primary challenger.

South Carolina A: Lindsay Graham (R): Graham has been shifting right lately because he is worried about a primary challenge. Even if Graham loses though, the seat should stay Republican because Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina. Their only strong candidate is State Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) but he seems more likely to run for Governor and leads Gov. Nikki Haley (R). Also, Graham receives 51% of the vote against a more conservative challenger but if he moderates himself on the fiscal cliff issue, expect the number to go south for him. 

Safe Republican

Alabama Jeff Sessions (R): Alabama has not elected a Democratic Senator in who knows how long. Anyway, Alabama is not unseating Sen. Sessions.

Idaho Jim Risch (R): As long as Risch does not follow the footsteps of former Idaho Senator Larry Craig (R), Risch should win reelection easily.

Kansas Pat Roberts (R): Even if former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) ran here, Roberts should hold this seat easily. Sebelius lost her popularity in the Obama Administration.

Mississippi Thad Cochran (R): Should be an easy hold for Republicans. 

Nebraska Mike Johannes (R): Nebraska is looking pretty safe for Republicans here. Not even former Gov. Bob Kerrey (D) could make a close race for Senate in 2012.

Oklahoma James Inhofe (R): Oklahoma is one of the five reddest states so Inhofe should have no trouble winning reelection. He may retire though because he will be 80 in 2014. If he does, Democrats should persuade Paul Ryan's wife's cousin former Rep. Dan Boren (D) or former Gov. Brad Henry (D) to run. Boren previously represented the 2nd district in eastern Oklahoma and won reelection with double digit margins, even in 2010. Henry was very popular as Governor however Oklahoma has been trending away from the Democratic Party quickly so Henry or Boren may run a slightly competitive race but should not win.

Safe Republican if Inhofe runs, Likely Republican if Boren or Henry runs +Inhofe retirement.

South Carolina B: Open Jim DeMint (R): DeMint resigned to work for the Heritage Foundation. There is no strong Democratic candidate waiting to run for office though (unless Stephen Colbert decides to run as a Democrat.) Republicans should hold this. 

Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R): It was only 2006 that Democrats controlled the Governorship, five House seats and came within three points of winning a Senate seat. Those days are long gone now; Tennessee is a solidly Republican state. Democrats control two House seats and won 30% in the 2012 Senate race.

Texas John Cornyn (R): Texas is trending Democratic but Cornyn should have no trouble winning. 

Wyoming Michael Enzi (R): Assuming former Gov. Dave Freudental (D) does not run here, Enzi should have an easy race.

Presidential Election Liveblog

I will be running a liveblog for this election so you can see the results.

6:58: Things are not looking too good in North Carolina. We got our voters out but the Republican turnout seemed to have increased higher than I would have liked.

6:53 MSNBC calls New Hampshire for Obama!

6:47: Two pickups in the Senate! Warren and Donnelly!

6:45: Obama leading by 140,000 in Ohio. People still in line there, it will take awhile to call many of these states.

6:41: Looking at these results, I think there is one person who is the happiest person in politics. No, it's not Obama. It's Nate Silver.

6:38: Virginia narrows a bit. Romney 51%, Obama 48%. Looks like Democratic areas are coming in.

6:35: Jefferson and Araphaoe Counties, the big bellwethers in Colorado are looking good for Obama.

6:30: Wisconsin goes to Obama! First battleground state to go! Thought it would be closer but that Maruqette poll showed Obama ahead. Looks like that is happening.

6:26: Looks like MSNBC called Pennsylvania for Obama. Was a bit worried about that but it looks like we are fine there.

6:17: 78% in at Florida, Obama ahead by only 2,000 votes. Polls showed a close race. However, I think Obama still narrowly pulls it out because the I-4 Corridor still has not reported everything and I see Obama overperforming there.

6:13 Obama actually did better in Pensacola now than he did in 2008. Also, there are still more votes in Miami Dade and Broward. Early voting went well for Democrats there, reported early but it is reporting later.

6:10: David Gergen said that one more state may flip to the Democrats in the Senate. I think he is looking at Indiana.

6:06: Looks like Wisconsin should go our way. Minnesota though is a bit closer than I would like. The problem with Minnesota is that polls always overstate the leads for Democrats there.

5:58: Feeling much better about Florida. Except for the Panhandle, northern Florida which is pretty conservative is almost all in. Miami Dade just has 1% of non early votes in so I am not super worried yet. I think we pull out in Florida but by less than 100,000 votes. Obama currently ahead by only 3,000 votes.

5:56: Lots of these Senate races like Ohio and Missouri still too early to call although Democrats have a lead.

5:51: Carville says Florida is looking good for Obama. I would agree. Obama up by 5 in Pinellas, 5 in Hillsborough County (these are all bellwethers.) Only worry is that the conservative Panhandle has not reported strongly yet. Palm Beach is almost all in, Broward County is on its way too.

5:50: Elizabeth Warren is ahead by about 5, I think she is going to pull this out! Sorry Scotty.

5:48: Still too close to call in Florida. It is going to be a long night there.

5:32 Chris Murphy (D) wins in the Connecticut race. Linda McMahon (R) spent $41 million but still could not win. She ran in 2010, made it close in September but it was not enough.

5:28: Numbers not looking the best in NC. Not liking that Wake County, 2nd biggest NC county, Obama won by 13%, is leaning toward Romney.

5:27 Franklin County in Ohio, Obama needs 59% to win statewide, has 66% there. Still, it is the early voting.

5:18: Florida shows Romney ahead but this is a total glitch. Broward County has Romney with 70%. I would expect that to be the other way around, Broward County is a very strongly Democratic county.

5:14: If Obama wins Florida, it is checkmate. It will make it nearly impossible for Mitt Romney to win.

5:03: New Jersey too early to call. Interesting, would have expected it to go more strongly for Obama. Looks like Sandy had a big effect.

4:58: Democrats +3 in Florida, we will see how the Independents go.

4:50 pm: Florida is looking very good for Obama. Baseline for Miami Dade was 57%, he has 62%. Baseline for Osceola was below 60%, he has 63%. Obama is ahead by 140,000 votes so far and Broward County which is strongly Democratic is 0% in.

4:48 Republican areas in Virginia traditionally report early. Romney ahead 141,000 to 101,000. Similar in 2008, do not freak out yet Democrats. Fairfax County is not in yet.

4:41: Looks like Obama is barely going to pull it out in the bellwether Vigo County.

4:29: Obama ahead by 9 in Hillsborough County. That county is the bellwether. Also, Obama ahead now with NOTHING from Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade.

4:28: 39% Democratic, 30% Republican in Ohio. Please pray the exit polls are correct! 59% approve auto industry bailout.

4:24: Obama ahead by 7 in Pinellas. Basically matches his percentages in 2008. Problem is that Romney ahead by only 19,000 votes in Florida with 1.3 million votes in with NOTHING from Broward, Palm Beach and Miami Dade.

4:23: Worth watching IN Governor race. Republican ahead by only 3, Romney ahead by 16. Exit polls did not project good numbers for dems.

4:13 pm: Orange County early votes go 152,000 to 96,000 for Obama. Really good news, he needs to break 60% in Orange County to win statewide and he got 61% of the vote there so far. Hopefully the early votes match the results.

4:12 pm: For Virginia, watch Fairfax County. Obama must get above 57% there and Obama needs to win by around 100,000 votes to win statewide.

4:08 pm: national bellwether Vigo County in Indiana is 78% in. 49-49 tie with a very slight Romney lead. Still could go the other way.

4:06 pm: Exit polls show Romney +1 in Virginia. Not reading too much into that, I remember 2004. However, Mourdock is behind by about 5 points in Indiana. We will see.

3:57 pm: Looking close in IN-09. Expecting a big Republican win but Shelli Yoder (D) is an energetic and young candidate. Maybe she has a shot?

3:56: Mourdock ahead by 4, Romney ahead by 22 in Indiana. If Mourdock can't do as well as that, then Mourdock is in trouble.

3:19: Indiana is starting to report. So far, Romney is ahead 63%-35% but the main counties reporting include Shelby County, a Republican leaning county in the Indianapolis suburbs. Mourdock is leading 54%-41%. I am expecting Obama to lose Indiana by less than 15 points (and Romney is overperforming Mourdock by 15 points.) This is not good for Mourdock. However, Shelby County just started reporting, results could change.

3:16 So far, the early exit polls are showing according to Politico that half of voters blame Bush for the economic recession, 39% say the economy is getting better and the #of people saying the economy is getting worse is at 31%, according to ThinkProgress.

3:16 Kentucky's first polls have closed and they are showing a large Romney lead. The counties reporting though are in the southern part of the state which is heavily Republican. Kentucky is expected to go Republican but if Romney gets a large margin out of Kentucky (greater than 20%,) then expect a good night for him.

My Last California Congressional District Rankings

These are my last rankings before the Presidential election on California's Congressional Districts.

After the California Redistricting Commission shuffled around all the California Congressional District lines, they created opportunities for Democrats in seats such as CA-07, CA-10, CA-26, CA-36 and CA-52. The Democrats are looking to gain somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 seats in California. Although they are not expected to gain back the House, they are expected to perform well in California, making takeover in 2014 a much easier task. 

Anyway, this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example. 

Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html

CA-03

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.) 

The competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district which is heavily Democratic. Also, Republican PACs have been pulling out of this district, I am not worried about Garamendi. 

Likely Democratic

CA-07

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/07.png 

This race should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle. It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4 higher than Lungren’s.

Tossup

CA-08

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/08.png

Gregg Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading. Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.

Lean Cook

CA-09

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/09.png

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does, especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010 in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be able to survive 2012. Also, the registration advantage for the Democrats is strong here and Obama is expected to do well in this district so that should help McNerney.

Lean Democratic

CA-10

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/10.png

This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup from Lean Republican. Republicans may still have a slight advantage here due to the district's demographics but it is still close. 

Tossup

CA-15

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/15.png

Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with

Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so Swalwell has room to grow.

Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.

CA-21

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/21.png

This race is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too. Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher in the general which should help Hernandez. However, Washington folks do not Hernandez's chances. There was one article that was discussing how Jose Hernandez was a great candidate while criticizing John Hernandez. Hispanic turnout could make it close but Democrats needed a better candidate here. 

Lean Republican

CA-24

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/24.png

Rep. Lois Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar lines and was less Democratic. I used to live in Santa Barbara actually and it was much more Republican in the early 2000s when I lived there. The district is interesting with liberal Santa Barbara on the coast but the inland areas are very conservative and resemble the Central Valley in a way. Also, Maldonado is from Inland SB County which will help him but as long as Democratic turnout is high, Capps should win. 

Lean Democratic

CA-26

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/26.png

This race is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well.  A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too conservative for the district. Also, Brownley has been receiving endorsements such as from the LA Times, she seems to have the wind at her back in this district.
Tilt Democratic

CA-30

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/30.png

The battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7 million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s 32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.

Lean Sherman

CA-31

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/31.png

Democrats had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R) who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this 56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has support of the national Republicans as well as more money.

Lean Miller

CA-36

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/36.png

Mary Bono Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. She also won tough races in the 2000s in a 52-47 Obama district but she had conservative Murrietta in her district which anchored her (Murrietta is not in her new district.) Also, Bono Mack recently referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet," and more a few more gaffes.  The DCCC has been spending heavily here, hitting Bono Mack for her votes on the Ryan budget which would end Medicare as we know it. Ruiz though made a small gaffe by saying he supported Leonard Peltier when he attended a pro Native American rights rally. However, Ruiz recovered pretty easily and Bono Mack's gaffes outweigh his. A Ruiz internal showed Ruiz leading by 6. I am going to place this race at Tossup for now although I believe Ruiz definitely has an advantage.
Tossup

CA-41

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/41.png

This district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district (the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.

Lean Democratic

CA-44

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/44.png

Rep. Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district. Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the new 44^th, her former city council district covered a large part of the 44^th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68% Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in trouble.

Safe Hahn

CA-47

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/47.png

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R). This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.

Likely Democratic

CA-52

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/52.png

This is another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters (D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded pensions. Also, Peters received the endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former Republican. As for polling, it has been all over the map with Bilbray internals showing Bilbray leading and Peters internals showing Peters leading. I believe that Peters should win in the end due to the Democratic overperformance here in the June primaries but this race is still very close. 

Tilt Democratic

Senate Ratings: My Last Ratings This Cycle

These are my last Senate race ratings before election day. I have really enjoyed writing these ratings and I cannot wait to get start writing up Senate ratings for the 2014 midterm cycle. Here are my previous Senate ratings this cycle: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/senate-ratings-democrats-likely-to-keep.html

In the 2011 cycle, conventional wisdom suggested that Republicans would gain control of the Senate, mainly because of opportunities in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Missouri and Virginia. However, indications are suggesting that Republicans have a 50% chance of actually losing seats. Democrats have surged in states such as Virginia and Massachusetts where Nate Silver has given the Democrats a greater than 80% chance of winning. Also, Missouri and Indiana originally resembled Republican wins but the Republican candidates Todd Akin (R) and Richard Mourdock (R) hurt their chances with offensive comments about rape. Republicans still hope they can gain seats in the high prairies in NE, MT and ND. Although they have a shot in NE, MT and ND are both close races where likeable Democrats face not so likeable Republicans in states where personality is important. Anyway, here are my ratings. By the way, I have removed the tossup column because I believe by now, Senate seats should shift one way or the other (even though in a few states, specifically AZ, MT, NV, and ND, it was particularly difficult to make a decision.) 

On another note, I am not including writeups on most Safe and Likely seats, they can be found here though: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/senate-rankings-september-2012.html

Dark blue = Safe Democratic
Blue =Likely Democratic
Light Blue = Lean Democratic
Very Light Blue=Tilt Democratic
Light Red=Tilt Republican
Red=Lean Republican
Dark Red/Brown=Safe Republican
Dark Green = Safe Independent
Green =Likely Independent
Gray= no election

Projected Senate turnover: Democrats +2
Republicans gain two: NE, ND
Democrats gain four: IN, MA, ME, NV

Safe Democratic (10 seats) CA, DE, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NY, RI, WA, WV

Likely Democratic (5 seats) FL, HI, NM, OH, PA

Lean Democratic (4 seats) CT, MA, MO, VA

Tilt Democratic (4 seats) IN, MT, NV, WI

Tilt Republican (2 seats) AZ, ND

Lean Republican (1 seat) NE

Likely Republican (0 seats)

Safe Republican (5 seats) MS, TN, TX, UT, WY

Safe Independent (1 seat) VT

Likely Independent (1 seat) ME


Seat changes favoring Democrats
IN-Tossup-Tilt D
NE Likely R-Lean R
NV-Tossup-Tilt D
VA-Tossup-Lean D

Seat changes favoring Republicans: 
AZ Tossup-Tilt R
ND-Tossup-Tilt R
WI Lean D-Tilt D

Overall, how do Republicans gain a path to a Senate majority? Well, they already have 47 seats and need 4 seats to win a majority, assuming Obama wins reelection and Biden is the tiebreaker. Nebraska is already Lean R and Maine is Likely Independent (Angus King probably will caucus with the Democrats,) so Republicans need to sweep all tilt R and tilt D which includes retaining AZ, IN and NV and picking up WI, ND and MT. That still only gives them +3 so they must win one of the leaning Democratic seats, CT, MA, MO or VA. Democrats have leads in all those states so it makes it difficult for Republicans to make a surprise win and I am 100% certain Republicans cannot sweep all the tilt D and tilt R states. Overall, Republicans have a very difficult path to the Senate majority.

Anyway, here is a more in depth look at the Lean and Tilt seats. 


Lean Democratic (4 seats) 

Connecticut (Open-Joe Lieberman): Rep. Chris Murphy (D) is facing Linda McMahon (R), former WWE CEO who spent around $50 million in the 2010 Senate race (she lost by 11 points) but is running closer in the polls than in 2010. In late August, McMahon was tied in the polls after she sent an ad blitz into Connecticut. Murphy though was boosted after the DSCC spent money to help him. Although September showed a close race, the newer polls are showing around +5 for Murphy, suggesting a similarity with the 2010 race where McMahon ran a close race in September but lost points close to the election. 

Massachusetts (Scott Brown (R)): Brown seemed to be invincible after winning Ted Kennedy's (D) former Senate seat in this heavily Democratic state in a 2010 Special Election until Elizabeth Warren (D), Obama's nominee for the Consumer Protection Bureau decided to run. Warren has been a prolific fundraiser and is one of the top 15 highest fundraisers in Senate history. She also raised $12.4 million in the 3rd Quarter (compared to 7.45 million for Brown) and has performed well in the debates. Brown said his role model was Scalia which plays into Warren's strategy that a vote for Brown is a vote for a Republican to control the Senate. This is Warren's strategy because polls including a PPP one released on October 11th shows that 53%-36% of Massachusetts residents want Democrats to control the Senate. Brown has been running away from the Republican party but Warren has been tying him to the unpopular Republican Congress. Also, Brown probably feels sad he did not accept Super PAC money because Warren is outraising and outspending him. Brown also skipped the last debate. Also, Brown has led in only one poll since mid September. Warren should win this seat. 

Missouri (Claire McCaskill (D)): I was at first very worried about McCaskill's chances here because of Missouri's sharp turn to the right (it was the only swing state in 2008 to support John McCain and it voted Republican for Senate by 13 points in 2010.) Then Republican candidate Todd Akin (R) said his famous legitimate rape comment which turned a 5 point Akin lead into a 5 point McCaskill lead. The NRSC and other Republican groups have come back and spent money here but McCaskill still has a strong advantage here. 

Virginia (Open Jim Webb (D)): This race pits two former Governors against each other, Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). For Kaine to win, he has to perform well in Northern Virginia, winning with 60%+ in Fairfax County and carrying bellwether Loudon County. Also, high African American turnout in the Hampton Roads/Richmond area should help Kaine too. Kaine and Allen are both well known so most voters have chosen a side so the candidates have to focus on turning out their voters. Recently though, Kaine has opened a lead with even Rasmussen showing him leading Allen. I considered placing this seat in Tilt Democratic but after the favorable polling data for Kaine, I am planning on moving it into "Lean Democratic." 


Tilt Democratic (4 seats)


Indiana (Open Richard Lugar (R)):  The Republican Legislature gave Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) a Republican leaning seat after redistricting which urged Donnelly to run for Senate. Mourdock defeated 36 year incumbent Lugar in a primary by claiming Lugar was not conservative enough for Indiana (Democrats may win though because Mourdock may be too conservative for Indiana.) To win, Donnelly needs to convince the voters that is the case. He also needs to perform well in not only Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs but also win a big margin out of St. Joseph County (South Bend,) which is in his district and hit 40%+ in heavily Republican Elkhart County which is also in his district. Polls show many undecided voters are Lugar backers in the Republican primary so Donnelly has been tying himself to Lugar, including mentioning how Lugar and him both backed the auto bailout which saved Indiana jobs. At first, I expected those disaffected Lugar voters to move to Mourdock in the end but after Mourdock's rape comments, a Howey-DePauw poll (they are very reputable in Indiana,) showed Donnelly with an 11 point lead. I expect Donnelly to now win here. 



Montana (Jon Tester (D)): Rep. Danny Rehberg (R) is challenging Tester, a popular incumbent with strong campaign skills (who can forget his haircut ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joQi27QG7Cs) Rehberg however is well known and popular throughout this Republican leaning state, making it more difficult.  Like in 2006, this race could be one of the last Senatorial races decided and the polls reflect a very tight race. What Tester has to do is to win over some Romney voters who are conservative on guns while capitalizing on Obama turnout in the cities. In 2006, Tester won by carrying Native Americans and urban voters. He needs to replicate this to win. Also, Tester should keep margins down in the rural areas by talking about his authenticity as a regular Montanan while portraying Rehberg as a false Montanan. This race should be a nailbiter but I am giving the edge to Tester because even Rasmussen showed a 1 point lead for him and Rehberg seems to be a poor fit for Montana voters. 


Nevada (Dean Heller (R)): This is another chance for a Democratic pickup as Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) from Las Vegas challenges appointed Senator Heller, a former Representative from the northern part of the state.   Recently Berkley is making a wise campaign move by campaigning heavily in Reno because voters there are unfamiliar with her. She does not want to repeat the 2006 gubernatorial race where Dina Titus (D), a Las Vegas centric candidate over performed in Vegas but lost because she underperformed in Reno. Heavy turnout in Las Vegas should help Berkley (early voting in Clark County so far is 47% Dem and 33% Rep,) but unless she can win Clark County by more than 10 points, she needs to make inroads in Heller's base.  Also, Nevada is underpolled in the Democrats favor. There are two reasons for this, the first one is that most polls do not have a Spanish speaking option (and the ones that do such as Mellman which was the only polling firm to predict Reid's 2010 win showed Berkley up 3,) and the 2nd is Nevada's Democratic Party's organization strength. The underpolling made a big difference in 2008 when polls showed Obama leading by 6 but he ended up winning by 12 in Nevada. Also, the Harry Reid organization is working strong for Berkley. This was a tough decision for me but I decided to rank Nevada at Tilt Democratic because of the Democratic organization but I expect a very close race here. 

Wisconsin (Open Herb Kohl (D)): Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) from Madison is running for the seat against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). At first, Republicans thought that this seat would be an easy pickup for them because Thompson is moderate and won reelection with 60%+ as Governor. Conventional wisdom also said Baldwin was too liberal for the state. What conventional wisdom did not say though was that Baldwin would campaign extremely hard throughout August and September while Thompson made only a few campaign appearances due to his "frail health." Baldwin gained a lead in September and was helped when Thompson's son said, "Obama should go back to Kenya," which should hurt the Thompson campaign. However, Thompson has been bouncing back, even leading in a few recent polls although Baldwin still has a slight advantage. 

Tilt Republican (2 seats)

Arizona (Open Jon Kyl (R)): Democrats have a strong candidate, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). He served under George W. Bush and was a registered Independent until recently. He also is campaigning as an Independent frustrated with gridlock and has criticized the Bush Administration which is helping him with Independents. The Republican candidate is Rep. Jeff Flake (R)-Mesa who was leading early this year but polls show a narrowing race. In early October, a few polls showed Carmona leading. No polls were released last week though and the last poll released was a Rasmussen one showing Flake ahead by 6. I am extremely unsure about whether to rank this race Tilt Republican or Tilt Democratic but I decided on Tilt Republican because of how although Hispanics are underpolled here like in Nevada, Arizona lacks the strong Democratic organization of Nevada. This was a tough decision for me and I believe Flake has a <60% chance of winning here. 

North Dakota (Open Kent Conrad (D)): This race resembles the Montana race. It is a primarily rural and Republican leaning state with a moderate likeable Democrat facing a not so popular Republican U.S House member. Many North Dakotans vote for the person, not the party and Berg is not very personally popular which works in Heitkamp's favor. She is very likeable and a news reporter described her as "the person who hugs everyone in the room while Berg is the person in the room who gives talking points about why you should vote for him."  North Dakota really likes personally popular candidates (Kent Conrad won easily because he is personally popular,)  but it is a Presidential year and North Dakota should go for Romney. Berg's new theme though is "you may like Heidi but she likes Obama." I personally believe this race is very close but I will give the edge to Berg for now, noting how the undecideds are Republican leaning voters. Heitkamp still has a strong chance and I expect this race to be 1 point either way. 

Lean Republican (1 seat)

Nebraska (Open Ben Nelson (D)): Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has retired and Democrats found former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), their best candidate to retake this seat. Republicans picked Deb Fischer (R). Kerrey was once very popular in Nebraska but since his Senate retirement, Kerrey has been President of Eugene Lang College in New York City, hurting his Nebraska roots. Kerrey received a recent boost from comedian Steve Martin who endorsed Kerrey and released a strong ad for him here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/05/steve-martin-bob-kerrey_n_1942521.html (Martin also has not endorsed candidates until now.) Former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) endorsed Kerrey too and this momentum has narrowed the race. An Omaha World Herald poll on October 25th showed Fischer with a 3 point lead, down from a 16 point lead in September. Kerrey has narrowed the race but I think it is too late to win (although a win would be a very pleasant surprise.)