Thursday, April 10, 2008

How to win the Pennsylvania Primary

For the first time since 1976, Pennsylvania is having a crucial primary on deciding the presidential nominee. This state could decide the Democratic race and here is what each candidate needs to win Pennsylvaina.
For Barack Obama to win Pennsylvania, he would need a massive African American turnout from places such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. He will need a massive turnout of young voters from places such as State College in central Pennsylvania. These alone probably will not make Barack Obama the winner of Pennsylvania. Obama will need to make inroads among the working class and women. A recent poll showed Hillary leading among woman by thirteen points, lower than a poll a couple of weeks ago. Obama must capture the Philadelphia suburbs which have large numbers of well educated affluent voters. Some good news for Obama, the 1st and 2nd congressional districts which are in Philadelphia make up 9% of the state's population, 17% of Kerry's votes in Pennsylvania were from those districts. In the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Ed Rendell beat Bob Casey 57%-43% although Rendell lost 57 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvaina. That win was due to a massive turnout for Rendell in the Philadelphia area. Obama is likely to do well where Rendell did well.
For Hillary Clinton to win, she must keep her strong lead among women and the working class. She will need those groups to turnout in large numbers in places like Scranton, Erie and Johnstown. Hillary will need to at least make Obama take the Philadelphia suburbs by a narrow margin or tie him there. Hillary will need to make inroads among men. She may be doing that because the same poll that showed her lead with women getting narrower showed Obama's lead among men getting narrower. Hillary has not been making any inroads among African Americans. A poll showed Obama with 86% of the African American vote. It will be difficult for Hillary to make inroads among them because of things she has said and done that are insulting to African Americans such as saying MLK did not accomplish much until Lyndon Johnson helped him.

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