Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Recap of May 6th Primaries

Obama has taken North Carolina by 14 points with 90% of the precints reporting. That number is likely to hold. This took away Hillary's chance for a surprise win and gave Obama a chance to make up his loss in Pennsylvania by delegates and popular vote. Currently, Obama is leading by 212,000 votes. He won due to large margins in the counties containing the big cities and eastern North Carolina. They easily erased Hillary's small lead in western North Carolina.
Indiana is currently too close to call from most networks. Hillary has a 39,000 vote lead with 86% of the precints reporting. This race is closer than we expected. We expected for the race to be called for Hillary much earlier because exit polls showed her with a four point lead. Ohio which had the exit polls showing the same lead before votes came in gave Hillary a ten point win. Obama is running close due to carrying Marion County which contains Indainapolis by 61,000 votes. Since Marion County is about a quarter African American, we expected Obama's margin there to be narrower than his current lead of 34 points. Exit polls show high African American turnout and that is probably what happened in Indianapolis.
We believed that the current percentage margin in Indiana would be reached after Lake County which is in the Chicago media market and has 25% African American population had its votes counted. It will probably be awhile until all the votes are counted there. One reason it is slow is that there was high turnout in Lake County. Although we are currently giving Indiana to Hillary, her winning margin will probably be around 10,000 votes. It could be even narrower and with help from a few more precints in Bloomington and Indainapolis, what happened in Missouri might happen in Indiana.
One thing is certain, Hillary did not receive the win she needed in North Carolina and if she loses Indiana, she will be in big trouble. She cannot make the case Obama cannot win big states (If she calls New Jersey a big state, she must note North Carolina has more people.) The superdelegates will not come flocking to her side and Obama has proved that he can survive a strong attack. That attack was Reverand Wright.
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