Sunday, September 21, 2008

The Battle for the West

Obama instead of focusing almost completely on Pennorida (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) is now setting his sites on Nevexicado( Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado.) I think it is a good strategy. Al Gore focused only on Florida but lost because he tried to put all his eggs in one basket. Kerry tried to put his eggs in two baskets by focusing only on Florida and Ohio. Two was still not enough for him but Obama now is trying to put his eggs in more baskets. One is Iowa and Virginia, the other is Nevexicado. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado add up to 19 electoral votes. If Obama can hold onto all the Kerry states and completely win Nevexicado, he will be the president. Kerry did not try hard enough in those states and if he tried to put his eggs in that basket as well as Ohio and Florida, he would have won. Enough chitter chatter about eggs and baskets, let's start analyzing things and we can see how Obama can pull off a win in all three states.

New Mexico, this state should be the easiest for Obama to win out of these three. Bush won there by only 5,988 votes and the reason he won was that there was alot of turnout in heavily Republican Little Texas. Although Palin is able to excite the religious conservatives, she probably cannot do it at the level that Bush did. Also, Bush managed to receive 44% of the Hispanic vote. Obama can definitely do better than Kerry did among Hispanics. Also, he will do well in Liberal Santa Fe and can probably win Bernallio County by a larger margin than Kerry. Yes, Arizona is a neighbor of New Mexico but that will probably not be enough for McCain to win. Already, we have listed New Mexico as Lean Democratic on our most recent state rankings.

Nevada is another state Obama will have to win. It is a very unique state. The unions and the corporations are friends and the economy is mostly focused on the gambling industry. Kerry lost the state by 22,000 votes and the reason is that he did not do well enough with Hispanics and Bush did very well in the counties outside of Clark County (the Cow Counties) where Las Vegas is located. McCain cannot probably match the levels of turnout in the Cow Counties so he will need to do well with white voters in Clark County. Obama will need to do alot better with Hispanics there and can increase African American turnout. Palin will help McCain in the Cow Counties but it may not be enough. The Cow Counties have high turnout while Clark County has lower turnout. On election night, watch Washoe County where Reno is located. If Obama can win that county, he has won Nevada.

Colorado is the biggest of the three. It is also the state with the biggest Democratic trend. The Liberal populations of Denver and Boulder along with the growing number of Hispanics are a big help in making the state trend Democratic. There was very high turnout in those areas in 2004 so Democrats may have a hard time finding new voters there. They need to win by doing well with Independents and also need to do well on the Western Slope. If Obama wins Larmier, Jefferson and Araphone Counties, he will probably have won the state. The rural counties in the east won't turnout as strongly this year as 2004 but there is Colorado Springs. There is a large military population there and McCain will do well with it. This state we believe will be very close in the general election and it may come down to it.

Now here are the places to watch on election night. In New Mexico, is McCain doing well in Little Texas? Is Obama doing well in the Santa Fe and Albequerque areas? Is he doing well around Las Cruces? In Nevada, is Obama leading by about seven to nine points in Clark County? Is Washoe County really close? Is McCain doing well in the Cow Counties? In Colorado, is Obama winning the counties that we mentioned earlier, is he doing well on the Western Slope? How high is the turnout in Denver and Boulder? Is the turnout in Colorado Springs high? If you want to see who will win these states on election night before all the votes are in? These are the areas to watch. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting and voting on our poll.

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