Saturday, September 20, 2008

State Rankings

It has been a long time since we posted the state rankings for the presidential election. We apoligize for not posting the rankings since June. During that time, alot of changes have been made. Palin has energized conservatives in the South and the rest of the country so Obama's plans to win Mississippi and Georgia with African American turnout are dashed. McCain will probably win those two states by ten to twelve points, lower than Bush's margin in Georgia and Mississippi. Also, Texas has been written off too and McCain will probably win by about 14 points. We never mentioned North Dakota and Montana as possible states for Obama but he won't win those states. Obama still has a shot at North Carolina but McCain seems to be leading there by about 4 to 6 points right now. Also, we had all but written off Indiana but we just saw a new poll with McCain up by only 2 points. That state is in play but we think Obama will not win it. Enough chatter, now to the rankings. States colored blue will have voted Democratic in 2004 and states colored red will have voted Republican in 2004.

Solid Dem(164 electoral votes)
California(55) Conneticut(7) Delaware(3) District of Columbia(3) Hawaii(4) Illinois(21) Maryland(10) Massachuttses(12) New York (31) Rhode Island(4) Vermont(3) Washington (11)

Likely Dem(19 electoral votes)
Maine(4) New Jersey (15)

Lean Dem(60 electoral votes)
Iowa(7) Minniesota(10) New Mexico(5) Oregon(7) Pennsylvania(21) Wisconsin(10)

Toss Up(68 electoral votes)
Colorado(9) Michigan(17) Nevada(5) New Hampshire(4) Ohio(20) Virginia(13)

Lean Rep(64 electoral votes)
Florida(27) Indiana(11) Missouri(11) North Carolina(15)

Likely Rep(21 electoral votes)
Georgia(15) Montana(3) North Dakota(3)

Solid Rep(144 electoral votes)
Alabama(9) Alaska(3) Arizona(10) Arkansas(6) Idaho(4) Kansas(6) Kentucky(8) Louisiana(9) Mississippi(6) Nebraska(5) Oklahoma(7) South Carolina(8) South Dakota(3) Tennessee(11) Texas(34) Utah(5) West Virginia(5) Wyoming(3)

Obama 243 McCain 227
The states really have been heading toward one candidate leaving the traditional battleground states along with Virginia. Soon, we will start posting posts that analyze the battleground states and a few of the leaners. Also, on our next ranking, do expect that Pennsylvania may be in the toss up catergory next because it is in the Lean Obama catergory by a thread. To test our or your own scenario, please visit Thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

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