Tuesday, September 30, 2008

States Most Likely to Switch

Obama is experiencing a surge in the polls currently and many more states are coming into play. A couple of weeks ago, everyone said Obama was doing horribly but look at where he is now. Although polls have not given him a lead in Ohio yet, they probably will soon. People are finally realizing how far right Palin really is and Obama was able to hold up against McCain in the debate. It will be interesting to see how Biden does in the debate. Now with the states, North Carolina and Florida are getting alot closer and Obama has a much better chance of winning those states now. Also, Indiana is getting more close but there are not many polls from that state so we don't really know what the outlook is there. We will say one thing, Obama would win the election if it were held today and it will take a major flop to make him lose. So far, that has not happened. The format for the rankings is the same as the one for the Senate. Here are the states most likely to switch parties.

1. Iowa
The Real Clear Politics average is Obama ahead by nine points. Being a neighbor of Illinois is definitely an asset here. With turnout in the west not as high as 2004 and with larger turnout in the university areas, this state is for Obama.

2. New Mexico
Obama's lead here is almost as large as the one in Iowa. Again, the turnout in Little Texas will not be high enough and Obama will probably do better with Hispanics than Kerry did. McCain is a neighbor but that is probably not enough for him to win. Also, there will probably be highly increased turnout in the Santa Fe area.

3. Colorado
After thinking for a long time about where we should put it on the line, we finally decided here. Why? The recent polls show Obama up by an average of five points and there will likely be very high turnout in the Boulder area because its House member, Mark Udall is running for Senate. For more in depth analysis of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, please see the Battle for the West.

Earlier in the month, we thought that this state was probably going for McCain although Obama may have been able to get a comeback. It seems like he has one and most polls right now show him with a small lead. The reason is most likely that voters in Fairfax County and the rest of northern Virginia are not so fond of Palin, her inexperience and her far right views. The heavy turnout of African Americans may not be as high as hoped but probably will still be enough to make Obama win the state. This could be the Ohio of 2008.

5. Ohio
This state has economic woes and a high unemployment rate. The state wants a different direction for the country. McCain hopes to win by turnout in southwest Ohio. It is possible Obama could win Hamilton which contains Cinncenati by large African American turnout but that win would be offset by the suburbs. Obama needs to equal Kerry in counties around Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Ohio may be the state that decides this election and just like last year, should be watched closely.

6. Nevada
After wondering whether New Hampshire should hold this spot, we decided that Nevada would go here and New Hampshire would be at seven. Nevada as we said in a recent post is a different state from the other states in the area. The economy is on gambling and the corporations and unions are friends. For more details, please see the battle for the west post. Expect this state to be close.

7. New Hampshire
We think Obama has a better than 50% chance of winning this state but it is still just a small gap. New Hampshire is a state where McCain has always run strong. He won there in 2000 and in 2008 which virtually was the reason he is now on the ballot for president. Obama will try to run up margins in the western counties but he must make sure he can keep McCain's margins in the suburbs of Boston low enough so they can't offset Obama's margins.

8. North Carolina
Well we thought that this state was completely written off for Obama and McCain would win here in the high single digits. We even thought that number wise, it would be impossible for Obama to win but it seems that we were wrong. The African Americans in the state are definitely going to turnout strongly for Obama. So will the Liberals in Durham and Charlotte. Obama may even be able to do well among other groups. Although McCain will probably win here in the end. the state will be close.

9. Florida
This was another state that we had all but written off because of all the Republicans there and we thought it would be hard for Obama to attain the margins among Jewish voters that Kerry did. Polls are showing a closer race here and the Palin pick will hurt more than help in Florida. It will be very hard for a moderate Jewish voter who originally might support McCain but hates Palin because she is such a religious Christian. Also, Obama can probably create a large increase in turnout among African Americans here. Although McCain will probably win Florida in the end, Obama should try hard to win it.

10. Michigan
McCain thought that this would be the state he could pick off from Obama. Earlier in the month, we thought he may be correct but he was probably not. Poll after poll shows Obama with a lead here and that lead probably will not fall. Obama will turnout Detroit and do well with working class voters on the economy. McCain may come back but it is not likely.

Overall, we think Obama will win here. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.

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