Well, we said that we would talk about the races for governer sometime this year. Sorry for the delay but we believe that predictions close to the elections are most accurate. We will have the state rankings on the weekend before the election. Also we want to point out that the poll we just put on the blog will close the moment polls in our home state (California) close. Now back to the governers races. Republicans see oppurtunities in two races for governers and those two races will be very close. If this were a Republican year or even a neutral year, those two governerships would go to the Republicans. This is a big Democratic year and that makes those two races much closer. We are going to put the four governer races that are most likely to switch. Two as we already said are held by Democrats while the others are held by Republicans. Enough chatter, to the rankings.
1. Missouri (Open Blunt)R
Matt Blunt was unpopular and probably would have lost anyway against Attorney General Democrat Jay Nixon. Having Roy Blunt the House minority whip be Matt's father certainly did not help him. Now Kenny Hulshof from Missouri's 9th congressional district is running but he seems to be faring no better. The most recent poll had Nixon ahead by 19 points. Put it this way, Nixon should start deciding how he wants to decorate the governer's mansion.
Estimation, Democratic win
2. North Carolina (Open Easley) D
This race will be extremely close. Charlotte mayor Pat McCroy (R) faces state senator Beverly Perdue (D.) Perdue was down four points in the most recent poll but a surge of young and African American voters driven by Obama may have been underestimated. Most polls only interview likely voters, not voters who vote only sometimes. Anyway, the only danger to Perdue is that she probably cannot pull a big margin out of Charlotte like Obama will because that is Pat McCroy's home turf. We may be surprised though.
Estimation Too Close to Call
3. Washington Gregorie D
Deja vu? Maybe, Dino Rossi is running against incumbent Christine Gregorie again. In 2004, the two politicans faced each other and after a lengthy recount, Gregorie won by only 129 votes. Recently, we thought that this race would be just like 2004 but recent polls show Gregorie getting a small lead. The Obama surge will definitely help and it may just be what Gregorie needs to win.
Estimation Small Denocratic win
4. Indiana Daniels R
What the Democrats thought would be a great chance for a pickup now is fading away. Daniels was originally unpopular but now seems to be getting his sealegs. The Democrats nominated State Senator Jill Long Thompson who was not a very good candidate. Most polls showed Daniels with a large lead except for the most recent one which had him ahead by four points. That could be showing a change of direction but probably not enough for Thompson to pull off a win. Obama definitely will help but it will probably not be enough.
Estimation 6 point Republican win
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