Saturday, October 4, 2008

Where the Senate Seats Stand

Now that it is exactly one month away from the election, everyone is talking about the presidential race. A few people are mentioning the Senate races but they are currently not a big deal right now. So if you are looking for some information on the Senate races, here is some. For more in depth talk about the Senate races, please look at our recent post about the Senate seats most likely to switch. As it looks, the North Carolina race is getting more competitive and Landrieu is getting safer despite all the calls saying she is still not out of the woods. The Minniesota race still is very close and the prospects for Democrats keep getting stronger and stronger but we still do not believe that Democrats can gain nine seats. Now, here are the rankings.

Solid Dem(11 seats)
Pryor(Arkansas) Biden(Delaware) Durbin(Illinois) Harkin(Iowa) Kerry(Massachusetts) Levin(Michigan) Baucus(Montana) Lautenberg(New Jersey) Reed(Rhode Island) Johnson(South Dakota) Rockerfeller(West Virginia)

Likely Dem(1 seat)
Virginia(Open Warner)

Lean Dem(5 seats)
Alaska(Stevens) Colorado(Open Allard) Landrieu(Louisiana) Sumunu(New Hampshire) New Mexico(Open Domenichi)

Toss Up(4 seats)
Coleman(Minniesota) Wicker(Mississippi) Dole(North Carolina) Smith(Oregon)

Lean Rep(2 seats)
McConnel(Kentucky) Collins(Maine)

Likely Rep(3 seats)
Chambliss(Georgia) Inhofe(Oklahoma) Cornyn(Texas)

Solid Rep(9 seats)
Sessions(Alabama) Idaho(Open Criag) Roberts(Kansas) Cochran(Mississippi) Nebraska(Open Hagel) South Carolina(Graham) Alexander(Tennessee) Enzi(Wyoming) Barrasso(Wyoming)

From the looks of it, Democrats will certainly get at least five seats. They will have to win every seat that is a toss up to reach the goal of 60. That will not happen. They will probably gain either 6 or 7. The Minniesota race is dead even, along with the Oregon. Also if Stevens is accquited in his trial, he will have a much better chance of retaining his seat. In Mississippi, Wicker has a lead of about three points but it could be diminished. Also, people thought the New Hampshire race would get really close but Shaheen continues to hold a lead. Dole in North Carolina has a smaller chance of surviving now and it seems to be tilting to Hagan.
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