Sunday, April 27, 2008

State Rankings for Hillary vs. McCain

These are how the states stand if Hillary somehow mamages to get the nomination. She will be not be competitive in many of the southern states that Obama could bring into play. She will have a better chace in Florida than Obama due to the large elderly population there. Hillary will not be as strong in the West as Obama. There will be less competitive states and we believe that except for a few exceptions such as Arkansas, this election will be alot like the ones in 2000 and 2004. One big problem for Hillary, if she gets the nomination, many African Americans may believe she stole the election from Obama and many might not vote or even go to McCain. The rules of the rankings will be the same with the McCain vs. Obama rankings. Now here are the rankings:

Solid Hillary (143 electoral votes)

California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)

Probably Hillary (29 electoral votes)

Conneticut (7) Delaware (3) Maine (4) New Jersey (15)

Leaning Hillary (34 electoral votes)

Arkansas (6) Michigan (17) Washington (11)

Toss Up (116 electoral votes)

Florida (27) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Wisconsin (10)

Leaning McCain (33 electoral votes)

Colorado (9) Missouri (11) Virginia (13)

Probably McCain (5 electoral votes)

West Virginia (5)

Solid McCain (178 electoral votes)

Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Georgia (15) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Lousiana (9) Mississippi (6) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3)Oklahoma (7) South Carolina (8) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) Wyoming (3)

Total: Hillary(206) McCain (216)

Even though McCain has a narrower lead against Hillary in the electoral vote count here, he has 178 electoral votes solidly for him. That's 35 more than Hillary's 143 solid votes. This shows that even though at first it appears that Hillary will have an easier time beating McCain the opposite is true.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Who will Win What States?

We are posting this list to show you the place where states stand for the general election. If a state is solid Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive now and probably will not be competitive. If a state is probably Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive currently but the states could become competitive later. If a state is leaning Dem. or Rep., this means that state is competitive but one party has a slight lead. If a state is a toss up, that means that state will be very competitive in the general and each party has a shot at winning that state. Here are the rankings for the states if Obama is running against McCain.

Solid Obama (143 electoral votes)

California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)

Probably Obama (18 electoral votes)
Delaware (3) Maine (4) Washington (11)

Leaning Obama (46 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Michigan (17) New Jersey (15) Oregon (7)

Toss up (108 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)

Leaning McCain (38 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Missouri (11)

Probably McCain (74 electoral votes)
Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Georgia (15) Kansas (6) Louisiana (9) Mississippi (6) North Carolina (15) South Carolina (8)

Solid McCain (115 electoral votes)
Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kentucky (8) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)

Total: Obama (207) McCain (227)

Many of the states that are probably McCain are states you might expect to be solid McCain. We put the southern states that are on there because Obama might be able to turn out a large number of African Americans. For Kansas, the governer might be Obama's VP. If Jim Webb is picked for VP, expect Virginia to move to lean Obama. Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

The Republican's Solid South?

The South used to be heavily Democratic but since the civil rights movement, it has trended Republican. Now most political analysts say the Demcrats cannot win the general without winning the South. That is not true but the Democrats will have a tough time winning without the South. It seems that since 1968, the only Democrats to win states in the South are southern Democrats. They are able to win states in the South by attracting enough whites to their side to make thier large majority among African Americans give them the state. This time, it might be different. Virginia will be probably be a competitive state and Arkansas will if Hillary is on the ballot. Now we will say what might happen if Obama gets the nomination.
Obama will probably try to win the South in a different way. He will try to generate a massive African American turnout. Another big factor here is that many evangelicals do not like McCain. Some of them might be racist so they will not vote for Obama. Many might stay home which means turnout for McCain drops below 2004 turnout for Bush in the South and it rises for Obama in the south above the 2004 turnout for Kerry in the South. We believe that the state in the South, Obama has the strongest chance of winning is Virginia. That state is experiencing a Democratic trend. Democrats hold the governership, one house in the state legislature and one Senate seat. They will likely hold the other one now that Mark Warner is running for it. Northern Viriginia is trending Democratic quickly, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb could not have won without it. Also, Virginia's population is 19% African American. They will probably turn out in large numbers and Northern Virginia will go strongly for Obama. It will be much easier to win Virginia with Jim Webb on the ticket (see VP picks for Barack Obama.)
Virginia is not the only state Obama has a strong chance of winning. Mississippi and South Carolina are states that both have large percentages of African Americans. South Carolina has 29%, Mississippi has 36%. These two states also have large numbers of evangelicals. If many of them do not vote but the African Americans do, Obama could win those two states. Georgia holds the same possibility.
Not only will the massive African American turnout help Obama, it will help Democrats in downballot races. It will help Mary Landrieu, the Democratic Senator from Louisiana. It will help Democrats retain Bud Cramer's open seat in Alabama. It will help in other downballot races as well.
Even if Obama loses New Jersey and a few other states in the Northeast, he might be able to win a few marginal states in the west, Ohio and win with a few victories in the South. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

The Last Term for the Senator from the Last Frontier?

Alaska's Senior Senator, Ted Stevens has been a Republican Senator from Alaska since 1968. He has won more than 60% of the vote in every election as a Senator since 1970. In 2002, he won 78% of the vote.
Stevens is now heading into hot water because the Democrats have found a very strong Democrat to challenge Stevens whose name is not Tony Knowles. The popular mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich is now close to Stevens in the polls. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Stevens leading by one point. 47% of the voters in Alaska view Stevens unfavorably, compared to Begich whom only 35% view him unfavorably. Stevens and Begich each have about 80% of their own party supporting them. The key to the closeness of this race is that Begich leads Stevens in independent voters by 23 points. This could be the key for Begich because the Democrats sucess in the 2006 midterms was mostly due to a much larger percentage of moderates voting Democratic than in 2004.
Why exactly, is Stevens in big trouble after blowing away all challengers for his seat in the past and him being in the Senate since 1968? The FBI raided his home due to an ethics charge and found the man in charge of fixng up Steven's home guilty of bribing government officials.
This is why that if Stevens does not run for reelection, they should not be as worried. But the Republicans will need to find a candidate like Sarah Palin, the current Republican governer of Alaska. She was virtually unknown when she ran but won by seven points against Tony Knowles.

If you have any thoughts on this race or our post, please tell us.

Friday, April 11, 2008

VP Picks for Barack Obama

If Barack Obama gets the nomination which is very likely, he will need to choose a vice presidential candidate. Here is a list of people Barack might be considering to pick for the VP spot.

Jim Webb, the Democratic Senator from Virginia. Jim Webb has alot of experience by being the Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. Jim Webb was a former Republican and is now a big opponent of the Iraq war. If Obama chose Webb, it would make it easier for Barack to win Virginia. Webb would help Obama on the experience issue. There are some downsides to choosing Jim Webb. He has attacked feminists and Webb once said that he has never met a woman he would trust to give combat leadership to men. That would not help gain women Democrats who are disenchanted with Barack and are supporting Hillary.

Hillary Clinton, Obama's rival in the race for the Democrats presidential nominee. The Democrats might be so strongly split between the two that the only way to mend the party would be to choose Hillary. She will certainly help Obama with the demographics that she carries. These two could be unbeatable. There are some downsides. There could be some voters who are leaning toward Obama but hate Hillary so much they will not vote for the Democratic ticket. That should not be the main problem. The main problem should be that Hillary might make big mistakes that would hurt Obama on purpose to make sure Obama loses but make sure she will be well posistioned to run in 2012. Even if Hillary does not do that, she will bring all her problems with her and the Republcians will attack that.

Joe Biden, the Senior Senator from Delaware. He is very experienced (he's been in the Senate since 1972.) and he does not have bad problems like Webb and the Clintons. If Obama chose Biden, he would make the experience factor not be a big issue. The problem is that Biden does not seem very exciting and Obama would not need someone who is viewed as boring.

Kathleen Sebelius, the popular governer of Kansas. She is a woman who is Catholic so she would help Obama in those groups. Those two groups are groups that mostly back Hillary. Sebelius would make Kansas competitive against John McCain. The problem with Sebelius is that she is not very experienced in foreign affairs.

Claire McCaskill, the Junior Senator of Missouri. She is a woman and Catholic like Sebelius. Also, McCaskill would make it easier for Obama to take Missouri. McCaskill may help Obama in white rural areas which she lost by ten points to Jim Talent in 2006. That margin was much smaller than her loss of 23 points in the 2004 gubernatorial race which made McCaskill able to capture Talent's Senate seat.

We believe the most likely pick would be Webb but it may easily change. If you have any thoughts about this list, feel free to comment it.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

How to win the Pennsylvania Primary

For the first time since 1976, Pennsylvania is having a crucial primary on deciding the presidential nominee. This state could decide the Democratic race and here is what each candidate needs to win Pennsylvaina.
For Barack Obama to win Pennsylvania, he would need a massive African American turnout from places such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. He will need a massive turnout of young voters from places such as State College in central Pennsylvania. These alone probably will not make Barack Obama the winner of Pennsylvania. Obama will need to make inroads among the working class and women. A recent poll showed Hillary leading among woman by thirteen points, lower than a poll a couple of weeks ago. Obama must capture the Philadelphia suburbs which have large numbers of well educated affluent voters. Some good news for Obama, the 1st and 2nd congressional districts which are in Philadelphia make up 9% of the state's population, 17% of Kerry's votes in Pennsylvania were from those districts. In the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary, Ed Rendell beat Bob Casey 57%-43% although Rendell lost 57 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvaina. That win was due to a massive turnout for Rendell in the Philadelphia area. Obama is likely to do well where Rendell did well.
For Hillary Clinton to win, she must keep her strong lead among women and the working class. She will need those groups to turnout in large numbers in places like Scranton, Erie and Johnstown. Hillary will need to at least make Obama take the Philadelphia suburbs by a narrow margin or tie him there. Hillary will need to make inroads among men. She may be doing that because the same poll that showed her lead with women getting narrower showed Obama's lead among men getting narrower. Hillary has not been making any inroads among African Americans. A poll showed Obama with 86% of the African American vote. It will be difficult for Hillary to make inroads among them because of things she has said and done that are insulting to African Americans such as saying MLK did not accomplish much until Lyndon Johnson helped him.