Friday, May 30, 2008

Why Won't Hillary Quit?

Hillary has almost no chance of getting the nomination. She is behind in pledged and superdelegates and has no way she can come back. She still will not quit. Most presidential hopefuls in Hillary's posistion would have left the race by now. Hillary is a fighter so she will not quit. Is that the real reason? We will discuss why Hillary is still in the race and why she got to where she is now.
When she first announced that she was running for president, all the polls showed her with a wide lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. She had more money than any of her opponents and she had much higher name recognition than her opponents. That made her belive that she would be the nominee. She ran a general election strategy by going to the center in issues. She knew Iowa was a weak state for her so she got the primary calender to be front loaded with states. She planned to make up a poor showing in Iowa and sweep Super Tuesday. Then she began to falter, she had the issue of having two different opinions about drivers liscenses for illegal immigrants in New York. Hillary Clinton gave Obama an opening to be the anti war candidate by not regretting that she voted for it. That is why Obama began to strike from nowhere and pulled off a win Iowa. Then Hillary came back and won New Hampshire by playing a woman who was bullied by the men. Next, Bill Clinton attacked Obama which later turned out to be a mistake. Obama crushed Clinton in South Carolina by 28 points. The Clintons should have seen it coming, Obama took 83% of the African American vote in Nevada. The Clintons pulled the race card by trying to diminish Martin Luther King's role in history and comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. If Hillary played the role of an anti war candidate, she would be the Democrats' nominee. Then Hillary did not sweep Super Tuesday as she hoped. She had not set up organizations in the remaining states because she believed the race would be over by then. She kept losing states but came back on March 4th. Then she lied about what happened when she went to Bosnia which did sway enough voters to give Pennsylvania to Obama. The primaries on May 6th told Hillary she would not be the nominee. The delegates of Michigan and Florida will count with half the vote but that will not be enough. Hillary was trapped by the rules she made. Perhaps if Michigan and Florida did count in the begining, Hillary would be the nominee. She herself gave Obama the nomination inadvertantly. Now the superdelegates must decide after the last primaries.
We have thoroughly discussed why Hillary is in this posistion now. Now here is why we believe she will not exit the race. The shock of not being out on top and believing she was inevitable is keeping Hillary in the race. She might still believe she can get it or maybe she wants to make a deal with Obama. It could be that she will be his VP. If Hillary does not drop out a little while after the last primaries, we were thinking that maybe Obama could offer to nominate her to be a Supreme Court justice if one retires. Then again, after the last primaries, the pressure for Hillary to drop out might be too much to resist.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

A few more VP picks for Obama

Now that the VP search for Obama has gotten underway, we have a few more ideas about who his VP will be. Here are more possible VPs for Barack Obama:

Ed Rendell: He is the governer of Pennsylvania and he is Jewish. Rendell is extremely popular in the Philadelphia area and that would be very helpful to Obama if Rendell were on the ticket. Having Rendell on the ticket would almost guarentee an Obama win in Pennsylvania. Since Rendell is Jewish, he might help Obama in Florida. Obama might not do as well with Jewish voters as recent Democratic nominees but with Rendell on the ticket, that might not happen.

Ted Strickland: He is the governer of Ohio. That is another competitive state Obama must win in the fall. Strickland will be very helpful to Obama in that state. Another thing is that Strickland has the life story of a working class white in Ohio (Strickland's father was a steelworker who did not go to high school.) Strickland will help Obama with working class whites. That is a group Obama needs to do well with if he wants to be president. Strickland has some experience as he has been in the House for six terms before running for governer. Strickland seems to have the right experience but it might not be enough.

Tom Daschle: No one seems to talk about him as a possible VP candidate. He is an Obama supporter and the former majority leader in the Senate. He is experienced and we believe his the possible VP that Obama can trust the most. Daschle probably cannot deliever South Dakota to Obama and it has only 3 electoral votes anyway. Daschle's wife, Linda Daschle is a lobbyist and that might not go well for Obama since he will not take contributions from lobbyists.

Out of these three, we believe Strickland will be the biggest help to Obama. With the other possible VPs, he is right below Webb on the possibility list. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.

Will Texas be in Play?

All the focus of competitive states has been on states that were competitive in 2004. Now many pundits are talking about states such as Georgia and Mississippi with large African American populations being competitive. No one has ever mentioned Texas, though. The reason is that Texas's African American population is close to the national average and McCain should do well with Hispanics because moderate stances on immigration. Obama can generate a massive turnout of African Americans but that alone will not be enough to put Texas in play. But we have noticed many other factors that favor Obama.
Obama has an appeal to the highly educated so he will do well in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth mertoplex with rich people along with parts of Houston. The Democrat running against Cornyn for Senate is Rick Noreiga who is Hispanic. He could help Obama by generating a big Hispanic turnout while Obama helped him by bringing out the African Americans. The 2008 election seems to be resembling the statewide elections in 2002 in Texas. That year, Tony Sanchez who was Hispanic ran for governer against Rick Perry. Ron Klink was African American and ran against Cornyn. Sanchez lost by 18 points and Klink lost by 12 points. Hispanic turnout only increased significantly in Laredo where Sanchez came from and African American turnout only increased significantly in Dallas. The two reasons that those two Democrats lost were that they were not running for president and it was not a presidential election year. As it is an election year and Hispanic were about 30% of the Democratic primary voters on March 4th, they will probably turnout in higher numbers. Another thing is that Bush won Texas by 23 points but it would be narrower than that anyway because Bush was from there and would do better in Texas than a general Republican candidate. McCain will not be able to excite the religious conservatives like Bush did. These reasons make Texas be competitive.
A poll done by Rasmussen earlier this month showed McCain ahead of Obama by five points. That seems to be what we believe his lead is. Another poll done by Rasmussen a few weeks ago showed Cornyn with a lead of four points. That race will be close. Although Obama does face an uphill battle in Texas, it is a state where he should spend some time and money.
Please feel free to comment this post.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Obama/Edwards '08?

Is that possible? Although Edwards is not our number one pick for Obama's VP, he is on our list. We always believed that in the end, Edwards would endorse Obama over Clinton. Edwards teamed up with Obama in the debates with Hillary. His style of campaigning was closer to Obama's than Hillary's. But what will an Obama/Edwards ticket bring?
Edwards will help Obama among the working class. That is a group Edwards is popular with and Obama has been struggling to gain. This will be important in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Edwards could help Obama in North Carolina. It is true that Kerry did not do as well with these voters as Gore even with Edwards on the ticket. Also, Bush increased his popular vote margin in North Carolina over his in 2000. Here is why those two things happened, Edwards was not very prominent during the campaign. The focus was not on him. Obama could give Edwards to be more prominent and campaign in heavily working class areas in battleground states. If Edwards does have more prominence, he can make North Carolina become extremely close or even give the state to Obama. North Carolina will probably be close anyway due to the large African American population there which will probably turn out in record numbers for Obama along with the Universities. Obama will try to win South Carolina by creating a heavy turnout of African Americans but definiteky will be helped because Edwards was born there. Edwards's message is that there are two Americas, upper class and lower class and that the government ignores the lower class. It is similar to Obama's message of change and that we are one nation.
Not everything about having Edwards as VP will be positive. Edwards is young and exciting but he does not have much experience in politics. To get the experience factor smaller, Obama would need an experienced VP candidate. Another problem with putting Edwards on the ticket would be that he has already tried for that spot. Some voters may believe that Edwards already had his chance. But it might not be a very big deal because the VP spot is much smaller than the presidential spot. A small issue may be the $400 haircut. Republicans may say someone who pays that much for his hair would not be in touch with the ordinary American. That likely would not outweigh what Edwards has said about the ordinary American. None of this could be a factor because Edwards has said that he would not take the spot. Since this is politics, that may easily change but Republicans may use that against him. Many of these factors may not be a problem because there will probably not be much focus on Edwards if he is VP.
Alltogether, we believe Edwards will have a positive effect on the campaign if he is chosen. Due to the experience issue, we still believe Jim Webb is the best pick for Obama. We will soon post something about a possible VP for Obama we have not mentioned, Ted Strickland, the Governer of Ohio.
Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Recap of May 6th Primaries

Obama has taken North Carolina by 14 points with 90% of the precints reporting. That number is likely to hold. This took away Hillary's chance for a surprise win and gave Obama a chance to make up his loss in Pennsylvania by delegates and popular vote. Currently, Obama is leading by 212,000 votes. He won due to large margins in the counties containing the big cities and eastern North Carolina. They easily erased Hillary's small lead in western North Carolina.
Indiana is currently too close to call from most networks. Hillary has a 39,000 vote lead with 86% of the precints reporting. This race is closer than we expected. We expected for the race to be called for Hillary much earlier because exit polls showed her with a four point lead. Ohio which had the exit polls showing the same lead before votes came in gave Hillary a ten point win. Obama is running close due to carrying Marion County which contains Indainapolis by 61,000 votes. Since Marion County is about a quarter African American, we expected Obama's margin there to be narrower than his current lead of 34 points. Exit polls show high African American turnout and that is probably what happened in Indianapolis.
We believed that the current percentage margin in Indiana would be reached after Lake County which is in the Chicago media market and has 25% African American population had its votes counted. It will probably be awhile until all the votes are counted there. One reason it is slow is that there was high turnout in Lake County. Although we are currently giving Indiana to Hillary, her winning margin will probably be around 10,000 votes. It could be even narrower and with help from a few more precints in Bloomington and Indainapolis, what happened in Missouri might happen in Indiana.
One thing is certain, Hillary did not receive the win she needed in North Carolina and if she loses Indiana, she will be in big trouble. She cannot make the case Obama cannot win big states (If she calls New Jersey a big state, she must note North Carolina has more people.) The superdelegates will not come flocking to her side and Obama has proved that he can survive a strong attack. That attack was Reverand Wright.
Please feel free to comment on this post.