Friday, November 28, 2008

Georgia Senate Runoff

Some of us political junkies have not much to watch in terms of horse races. We can look at the transistion and we will post something about that soon but there is something we do not see talked about much. The Democrat have 58 seats in the Senate and to at least get to 59, they need to pick up the seat in Georgia. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss received just short of 50% of the vote in the November 4th election against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss has been in Congress for a long time but was elected to the Senate in 2002 with 53% of the vote. He beat incumbent Max Cleland who lost body parts in Vietnam. Chambliss's campaign was that Cleland was not patriotic. Anyway, he still has to explain to us how you are unpatriotic if you go to war to serve your country and lose body parts in the process. That sounds very patriotic to us but what do you have to do to reach Chambliss's standards?
Now, we are going to explain this race a little bit. A reason that Martin got 47% of the vote is mainly because of high African American turnout which was 30% of the vote in Georgia, up from 25% in 2004. With Obama not on the ticket, it will harder to generate such a high percentage of African American voters. Also, this election will come down to turnout. People think that the turnout on December 2nd will be half as high as it was on November 4th. Also, early voting numbers show only 23% of early voters being African American which is alot lower than the 35% of early voters for November 4th being African American. In recent years especially in 2002, Republicans have won because of high turnout in counties that are near Atlanta but not in the core. The main ones are Forsyth, Coweta, Hall, Cherokee, Gwinnent and Cobb. The last two mentioned voted for McCain by much smaller margins than for Bush mostly because the areas are well educated and the turnout of African Americans was high. Chambliss won by doing well in those counties but times are changing and three of the conservative outer Atlanta counties, Rockdale, Newton and Douglas were won by Obama and Martin even though Bush won them easily in 2004. The reason for that is they are experiencing an in migration of African Americans. If Martin fails to get the turnout he needs in the Atlanta area, he must try to do well in the rural area. Although Obama did better than Martin in the Atlanta core area, Martin did better than Obama in the rural part of the state because he got a larger percentage of white voters to support him than Obama. It is important for Martin to win big in the counties containing Athens, Columbus, Augusta, Macon, Albany and Savannah and keep Republican margins in the suburbs low. Then Martin must do well in the central part of the rural state which has alot of African Americans.
Alot of prominent Republicans and Democrats such as Mitt Rommney and Al Gore have come to Georgia to campaign but Obama has not. Obama coming to Georgia could sway a few points and bring out more African Americans. He has a radio ad but it is not enough. He probably does not want to be tainted if Martin loses and Obama campaigned for him. Recent polls show Chambliss ahead by a few points but upsets can happen. In Texas, Republican Henry Bonilla was expected to keep his seat against Democrat Ciro Rodreguiez but Bonilla lost by 10 points.
Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Last State Rankings

Already the election season is almost over. Just three more days until we know the outcome of the presidential race and many other races. Since we wanted to get in a last update, here are the rankings for the states. Obama is still leading strongly. He is getting very close in states that no one thought he could win such as Indiana. Obama's 50 state strategy did work after all. In the rankings, Obama will appear to be doing alot better and we believe he will win because of the all the early voting and the excitment in his campaign. Also, something people never talk about is that alot of voters who are economically hurting but might feel uncomfortable about voting for a black man will probably vote for Obama in the end because of their pocketbooks. Now here are the rankings which are a little different than usual. The state that is number one is most likely to switch parties and the color it is in is the way it voted last presidential election.

1.Iowa

2.New Mexico
3.Colorado
4. Virginia
5.Nevada
6.Ohio
7.Florida
8.North Carolina
9.Missouri
10.Indiana
11.New Hampshire
12.Pennsylvania
13.Georgia
14.Arizona
15.Montana
16.North Dakota
17.West Virginia
18.Wisconsin
19.Michigan
20.Minniesota
21.South Dakota
22.Kentucky
23. Maine
24. Oregon
25. Washington
26. South Carolina
27. Mississippi
28. Arkansas
29. New Jersey
30. Conneticut
31. Texas
32. Tennessee
33. Louisiana
34. Alabama
35. Kansas
36. Rhode Island
37. Oklahoma
38. Nebraska
39. California
40. Vermont
41. Delaware
42. Idaho
43. Hawaii
44. Alaska
45. Vermont
46. Massachuttses
47. New York
48. Wyoming
49. Utah
50. Illinois
51. D.C

The last ones may not be as precise as we want because of polling data. Just put it this way, any state under 20th most likely to switch is definitely in the hands of the party that won it last time. The polls that show Pennsylvania getting closer probably will not be enough to switch it. If McCain does not win Pennsylvania, it is over. All Obama has to do is win New Mexico, Iowa and something else that has 6 or more electoral votes. Our current estimation is that Obama will come out with about 300 electoral votes.
Please feel free to comment on this post and vote on our poll.