Thursday, December 17, 2009

New York Redistricting Map

Long Island

New York City

Westchester County and vicinity

Upstate New York

Western Upstate New York

Buffalo/Rochester area

The 2010 census will be here shortly and that is when legislators redistrict congressional districts. There is this tool called Dave's Redistricting App that lets you create maps of the new congressional districts. Dave's Redistricting App now has partisan data for New York! New York has 29 U.S House seats and New York is expected to lose one due to slow population growth. There are currently 27 Democrats and 2 Republicans representing New Yorkers in Congress. I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation and he represents Buffalo and Rochester suburbs. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in western Suffolk County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district's heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa's (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama's performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. "Important areas" refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Here are some helpful links:
For maps and information on current Congressional districts:

For election results by county:

For demographic data by county:
Where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods:

Long Island
1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton
Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%
Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5
Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson, Patchouge and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is alot safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village vs. Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White
Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Change: Obama -7

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King's current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel's district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R) Seaford
Vote totals: Obama 181,941 57%, McCain 137,845 42%
Demographics: 17% African American, 11% Hispanic and 68%White Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47% Change: Obama +20

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, Seaford, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains his home and large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district's new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola
Vote totals: Obama 170,592 55%, McCain 140,394 44%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian and 72% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -6

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but it was the best I could give her. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60's for Obama. McCarthy might dislike getting used to her new territory but it is only a few points less Democratic from her old district should she should be safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst
Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White
Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36%
Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley's district that the 5th has is Crowley's home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 193,857 81%, McCain 43,718 18%
Demographics: 50% African American, 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 18% White.
Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%
Change: Obama -15

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district's number are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district, he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic
7th District Vacant
Vote totals: Obama 155,916 84%, McCain 26,857 15%
Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White
Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Change: Obama +10

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City's growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district's votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York's 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 134,644 65%, McCain 69,317 34%
Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 20%Asian and 65% White
Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%
Change: Obama -17

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler's home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 124,137 63%, McCain 71,713 36%
Demographics: 10% African American, 17% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 54% White Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44%
Change: Obama +16
Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama's percentage here from 55% to 63% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 10%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 185,755 84%, McCain 34,960 15%
Demographics: 51% African American, 16% Hispanic and 25% White Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to protect it. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 199,766 90%, McCain 20,258 9%
Demographics: 57% African American, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 20% White. Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 154,211 85%, McCain 26,156 14%
Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White. Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%
Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters levels. I barely kept Velazquez's home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White
Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 239,860 80%, McCain 56,360 19%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White
Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler's home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 219,782 92%, McCain 18,728 7%
Demographics: 35% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.
Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 158,103 94%, McCain 10,173 5% Demographics: 27% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.
Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%
Change: Obama -1
Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano's district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,893 61%, McCain 105,865 38%
Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White. Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel's district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama's percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison
Vote totals: Obama 188,392 61%, McCain 116,831 38%
Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White
Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38% Change: Obama -1
Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey's district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.


19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,336 55%, McCain 133,922 44%
Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White
Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls
Vote totals: Obama 176,121 54%, McCain 145,588 44%
Demographics: 91% White
Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County help make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 179,619 54%, McCain 144,301 44%
Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White
Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -8
Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schnectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama's percentage from the high 50's to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning
Vote totals: Obama 172,175 54%, McCain 143,225 45%
Demographics: 89% White
Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa's home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa's district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,891 54%, McCain 125,010 44%
Demographics: 92% White
Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5
Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onodaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama's performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica
Vote totals: Obama 162,838 54%, McCain 131,420 44%
Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White
Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48%
Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Onodaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama's margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama's performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates piling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,745 57%, McCain 136,803 42%
Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, 82% White
Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Onodaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, YatesMaffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei's home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 138,514 42%, McCain 183,587 56%
Demographics: 94% White
Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52%
Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.
27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 188,071 55%, McCain 146,218 43%
Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White
Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama's performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,743 61%, McCain 120,668 38%
Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White
Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30%
Change: Obama -16

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama's performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this plan? Do you have a redistricting plan or idea you want to share. Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts. 

1 comment:

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