Friday, May 7, 2010

Baselines for Florida's Gubernatorial Race

 Charlie Crist (R), the current Governor of Florida is not running for reelection this year because he is running for Senate as an Independent (which is another story.) He leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink  is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a Rasmussen poll showed McCollum leading by 7. This poll on April 16th is the most recent poll on the race and Rasmussen usually leans to the right. For these reasons, it is hard to tell if McCollum still has a lead. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes.

Sink's background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education commission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)
McCollum's background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.

About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is...the rest of Florida.

How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Here are some helpful links:
For 2006 CFO election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2006 Attorney General election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Now finally the baselines:
County name Sink McCollum Other
Alachua          59%  40%  1%
Baker             27%  72%  1%
Bay                32%  67%  1%
Bradford        35%  64%  1%
Brevard          45%  54%  1%
Broward         66%  33%  1%
Calhoun          42%  57%  1%
Charlotte        44%  55%  1%
Citrus             44%  55%  1%
Clay               28%  71%  1%
Collier            35%  64%  1%
Columbia       39%  60%  1%
DeSoto          43%  56%   1%
Dixie              42%  57%   1%
Duval             44%  55%  1%
Escambia       38%  61%  1%
Flager            49%  50%  1%
Franklin         47%  52%  1%
Gadsden        72%  27%  1%
Gilchrest        39%  60%  1%
Glades          47%  52%  1%
Gulf              43%  56%  1%
Hamilton       51%  48%  1%
Hardee         36%  63%  1%
Hendry         45%  54%  1%
Hernando     47%  52%  1%
Highlands      41%  58%  1%
Hillsborough  48% 51% 1%
Holmes           31% 68% 1%
Indian River    40% 59% 1%
Jackson          43% 56% 1%
Jefferson         60% 39% 1%
Lafayette        38% 61% 1%
Lake              41% 58% 1%
Lee                41% 58% 1%
Leon              63% 36% 1%
Levy              44% 55% 1%
Liberty           45% 54% 1%
Madison        56% 43% 1%
Manatee        45% 54% 1%
Marion          44% 55% 1%
Martin           42% 57% 1%
Miami-Dade  56% 43% 1%
Monroe         52% 47% 1%
Nassau          31% 68%  1%
Okaloosa      26%  73% 1%
Okeechobee  46% 53% 1%
Orange          53%  46%  1%
Osceola        52%  47%  1%
Palm Beach   62%  37%  1%
Pasco            46%  53%  1%
Pinellas          51%  48%  1%
Polk              44%  55%  1%
Putnam          44%  55%  1%
Santa Rosa    27%  72%  1%
Sarasota        48%  51%  1%
Seminole        43%  56%  1%
St. Johns        34%  65%  1%
St. Lucie        53%  46%   1%
Sumter          37%   62%   1%
Suwanee       38%   61%   1%
Taylor           44%   55%   1%
Union            35%   64%   1%
Volusia          51%   48%   1%
Wakulla         50%  49%    1%
Walton          30%  69%    1%
Washington   34%  65%    1%

Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.
Dark Red: McCollum 65%+
Red: McCollum 60%-64%
Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%
Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%
Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%
Blue: Sink 55%-59%
Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%
Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+

A little more analysis:

The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink's margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County's leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.

Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama's coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular Florida election.

No comments: