Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Nevada Senate County Baselines

Dark Red: Republican 70%+
Red: Republican 60%-69%
Light Red: Republican 50%-59%
Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

This map above is the visual for the Nevada Senate county baselines. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (who Keith Olbermann calls the chicken lady,) a State Senator from Republican areas in Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. No recent poll has shown her lead (or hopefully deficit) compared to Reid. Also, Lowden benefits from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid's past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may not keep down Republican margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates' percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid's 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election:
Link for 2008 Presidential election:

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City 45% 54% 1%
Churchill 29% 70% 1%
Clark 54% 45% 1%
Douglas 35% 64% 1%
Elko 27% 72% 1%
Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%
Eureka 21% 78% 1%
Humboldt 34% 65% 1%
Lander 29% 70% 1%
Lincoln 24% 75% 1%
Lyon 35% 64% 1%
Mineral 52% 47% 1%
Nye 41% 58% 1%
Pershing 37% 62% 1%
Storey 42% 57% 1%
Washoe 49% 50% 1%
White Pine 38% 61% 1%

No comments: