Saturday, May 29, 2010

Oregon Gubernatorial Baselines

 In Oregon, Ted Kulogoshi (D) is not running for reelection as Governor. The Democrat running to replace him is John Kitzhaber (D) who is the former Governor of Oregon from 1994 to 2002. The Republican running is former basketball player Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber was a popular Governor and he was elected with 64% of the vote in 1998. A recent Rasmussen poll though showed Kitzhaber and Dudley tied. Kitzhaber should still win because Rasmussen has recently shown polls that favor Republicans. For the Arkansas Senatorial race, they found Republican John Boozmen winning against incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) by 38 points. Other polls show Boozmen winning by 10-15 points. For Oregon, other polls show Kitzhaber with a lead. This is an anti incumbent year but Kitzhaber has not been an incumbent for eight years. He was not very popular but Oregon has a strong Democratic lean so Kitzhaber should probably pull ahead.
For Kitzhaber to win, he needs to win big margins in Portland while carrying suburban Washington and Clackamas combined. He is from Portland but Dudley is from Lake Oswego in Clackamas County. Also, Kitzhaber needs to win traditionally Democratic rural counties like Clatsop and Tillamook counties where he performed very well in 1998. He hopefully will keep down Dudley's margins in the rural eastern part of the state.

This map here is the baselines of the Gubernatorial race. This map shows how the Oregon counties will vote if the Gubernatorial race is tied. I found the results by adding the 2008 Presidential election results to the 1998 Gubernatorial election results. I then divided by two to get the results shown below.

Link for 1998 election results: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Link for 2008 election results: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Here is a map of the baselines

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 60%+
Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+
Light Red: Dudley 50%+
Red: Dudley 60%+
Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

Now here is a chart of the percentages by county. The formatting is not working but it should not be too hard to follow.

Counties Kitzhaber Dudley


Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

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