Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Colorado Baselines 2010

A few weeks ago, it appeared that Colorado would hold two very competitive races. One race would be the Colorado Gubernatorial race. John Hickelooper (D), the mayor of Denver is facing the former Western Slope congressman Scott McInnis (R). Then McInnis plagiarized so he has imploded. One Republican, Tom Tancredo from conservative Denver suburbs has announced he will run as a Constitution Party member. With the Republican vote split, Hickelooper should win easily unless the Republicans line up with Tancredo. The Senatorial race is a more interesting story. Michael Bennett (D) will either face Jane Norton (R) or Ken Buck (R) who are both very conservative and are destroying each other in the primary. Most polls show a close race here.

Although election night is far away, I have here a map with the baselines. The baselines show how each county in Colorado will vote if the race is tied. You may have seen my earlier baseline posts on races in Maryland, Nevada, Florida and/or Oregon. I put in results from individual candidates to get baselines there but now the only results I am using for the baselines are Obama's 2008 election results. At first, it does not seem too accurate but it probably is because Obama's improvement over Kerry in 2004 was mostly uniform across the state. The only place that may go more Democratic than the map suggests is the Hispanic areas in southern Colorado. The Denver suburbs might vote more Republican but since there are two Denver area Democrats on the ticket, it could tilt the suburbs towards the Democrats. I am also expecting Democratic turnout in the Rocky Mountain counties to drop a bit if the Democrats are unable to excite voters there. Also, I will soon add exit poll baselines with demographic numbers from 2004.
Anyway, the Democrats need to win by pulling out big margins in Denver and Boulder, winning the suburban swing counties of Jefferson and Araphoe and win enough ski area counties. The Republicans need to win by winning big in Douglas and El Paso Counties. They also need to do well in rural Colorado and the Western Slope by winning big in Mesa County. Without further ado, here is the map of the baselines

Here is a link for a clearer map of Colorado: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/colorado_map.html

Dark Red: Republican 65%+
Red: Republican 55%-64%
Light Red: Republican 50%-54%
Light Blue: Democrat 50%-54%
Blue: Democrat 55%-64%
Dark Blue: Democrat 65%+
County Names Democrat Republican


Adams 54% 46%

Alamosa 53% 47%

Arapahoe 52% 48%

Archuleta 39% 61%

Baca 22% 78%

Bent 38% 62%

Boulder 69% 31%

Broomfield 51% 49%

Chaffee 45% 55%

Cheyenne 15% 85%

Clear Creek 55% 45%

Conejos 52% 48%

Costilla 70% 30%

Crowley 32% 68%

Custer 31% 69%

Delta 29% 71%

Denver 72% 28%

Dolores 27% 73%

Eagle 57% 43%

Elbert 26% 74%

El Paso 36% 64%

Fremont 31% 69%

Garfield 45% 55%

Gilpin 57% 43%

Grand 45% 55%

Gunnison 60% 40%

Hinsdale 37% 63%

Huerfano 51% 49%

Jackson 26% 74%

Jefferson 50% 50%

Kiowa 19% 81%

Kit Carson 23% 77%

Lake 58% 42%

La Plata 53% 47%

Larmier 50% 50%

Douglas 37% 63%

Las Animas 49% 51%

Lincoln 21% 79%

Logan 29% 71%

Mesa 31% 69%

Mineral 41% 59%

Moffat 24% 76%

Montezuma 36% 64%

Montrose 31% 69%

Morgan 33% 67%

Otero 40% 60%

Ouray 50% 50%

Park 42% 58%

Philips 23% 77%

Prowers 29% 71%

Pueblo 53% 47%

Rio Blanco 17% 83%

Rio Grande 41% 59%

Routt 59% 41%

Saguache 60% 40%

San Juan 50% 50%

San Miguel 73% 27%

Pitkin 70% 30%

Sedgwick 31% 69%

Summit 62% 38%

Teller 32% 68%

Washington 17% 83%

Weld 41% 59%

Yuma 21% 79%

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