Thursday, July 22, 2010

The First Gubernatorial Rankings for 2010

You may have seen my Senate rankings that I posted about two weeks ago. Unfortunately, those rankings did not cover all the races because they just mentioned the races I believed were most likely to switch parties. In the Senate, there appeared to be a large amount of movement in what party picked up seats. In the Gubernatorial elections though, there appears to be even more movement because of many term limited Governors. Many Governorships are switching parties mostly because it is easier to become Governor based on personal popularity instead of what letter is next to your name on the ballot. In Wyoming, the Governor is Dave Freudental (D) but in Hawaii, the Governor is Linda Lingle (R). Both of these Governorships should switch parties and by looking at the polls, it appears that people are becoming more partisan. Democratic states seem to be leaning towards Democratic Governors and Republican states are leaning towards Republican Governors. There are a few exceptions though including Illinois where unpopular Pat Quinn (D) may lose to the conservative Downstate candidate Bill Brady (R) who has far right views on a woman's right to choose. Another exception is Georgia where former Governor Roy Barnes (D) is running. Right now, I am looking at the Republican getting an overall gain of 1-3 seats. Now here are the rankings:

Safe Dem (3 held seats, 1 potential Democratic pickup)
Arkansas (Beebe), Hawaii OPEN (Lingle), New Hampshire (Lynch), New York OPEN (Paterson)

Likely Dem (0 seats)

Lean Dem (4 held seats, 3 potential Democratic pickups)
Colorado OPEN (Ritter), Conneticut OPEN (Rell), Florida OPEN (Crist), Georgia OPEN (Perdue), Maine OPEN (Baldacci), Maryland (O'Malley), Oregon OPEN (Kulogoshi)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic (2 held seats, 2 potential Democratic pickups)
California OPEN (Schwarzenegger), Massachusetts (Patrick), Minnesota OPEN (Pawlenty), New Mexico OPEN (Richardson)

REAL Toss Ups (2 Democratic seats, 2 Republican seats)
Illinois (Quinn), Ohio (Strickland), Rhode Island OPEN (Carcieri), Vermont OPEN (Douglas)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican (1 held seat, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Michigan OPEN (Granholm), Texas (Perry), Wisconsin OPEN (Doyle)

Lean Republican (2 held seats, 1 potential Republican pickup)
Arizona (Brewer), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Pennsylvania OPEN (Rendell)

Likely Republican (4 held seats, 3 potential Republican pickups)
Alabama OPEN (Riley), Iowa (Culver), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Oklahoma OPEN (Henry), South Carolina OPEN (Sanford), Tennessee OPEN (Bredesen)

Solid Republican (4 held seats, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Alaska (Parnell), Idaho (Otter), Kansas OPEN (Parkinson), Nebraska (Heineman), South Dakota (Rounds), Utah (Herbert), Wyoming OPEN (Freudental)

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours? Please feel free to shrae your thoughts.

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