Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Nevada Senate County Baselines

Dark Red: Republican 70%+
Red: Republican 60%-69%
Light Red: Republican 50%-59%
Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

This map above is the visual for the Nevada Senate county baselines. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (who Keith Olbermann calls the chicken lady,) a State Senator from Republican areas in Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. No recent poll has shown her lead (or hopefully deficit) compared to Reid. Also, Lowden benefits from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid's past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may not keep down Republican margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates' percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid's 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election:
Link for 2008 Presidential election:

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City 45% 54% 1%
Churchill 29% 70% 1%
Clark 54% 45% 1%
Douglas 35% 64% 1%
Elko 27% 72% 1%
Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%
Eureka 21% 78% 1%
Humboldt 34% 65% 1%
Lander 29% 70% 1%
Lincoln 24% 75% 1%
Lyon 35% 64% 1%
Mineral 52% 47% 1%
Nye 41% 58% 1%
Pershing 37% 62% 1%
Storey 42% 57% 1%
Washoe 49% 50% 1%
White Pine 38% 61% 1%

Friday, April 23, 2010

Maryland County Baselines

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+
Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%
Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%
Blue=O'Malley 60%-69%
Dark Blue= O'Malley 70%+

This is a map for those who like visual aides like myself. This is for the baselines which I will explain below.

Robert Ehlrich (R), the former Governor of Maryland is running against Martin O' Malley (D) the incumbent Governor of Maryland. This is like a repeat of 2010 because the two same candidates are running for the same seat, except O'Malley is the Governor this time. Yes, Maryland is a Democratic state where Obama won 62% but a recent Rasmussen poll showed O' Malley ahead by only three points.
Rasmussen usually leans to the right in their polling but still, Maryland should have a competitive race. Obama had a boost from high African American turnout but most political people believe it will be lower. For your knowledge and enjoyment, I have created the baseline for Maryland counties which are the expected percentages for each candidate by county if the race is tied. I factored in the 2006 Gubernatorial election because Ehlrich and O'Malley were the candidates in it. I also factored in the 2008 Presidential election because the results are more recent and should reflect Republican and Democratic trends. The two elections combined should offer a clear picture of Maryland's county baselines. The math I used was adding the 2006 and 2008 Republican and Democratic percentages. I then divided by two and subtracted 8 from the Democratic percentage for the baseline.

A bit about Ehlrich and O' Malley's past elections: Ehlrich won in 2002 by running far ahead of Republican percentages in the Baltimore County suburbs of Anne Arundel and Baltimore County (which does not include Balitmore City.) Ehlrich used to represent a congressional district in Republican Baltimore suburbs. In 2006, he was unable to pull big margins from them because O'Malley is the former mayor of Baltimore City and he was popular with the working class Baltimore suburban voters Ehlrich won in 2002. For example, he won Baltimore County with 61% in 2002 but lost by 300 votes in 2006. For Ehlrich to win, he needs to do very well with the working class voters. He did not so he lost with 53%-46%. Enough talk about elections, here are the baselines:

Wait, here are some helpful links:

Now finally the baselines:

County name O'Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George's 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne's 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary's 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%
As seen in the baselines, O'Malley only wins the big three (Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's Counties.) I think he should barely win Charles County which is trending Democratic quickly. Overall, the baselines should fluctuate a bit but I wanted to stay with election results, not my personal opinion on each county. Any thoughts?