Monday, May 31, 2010

How Pat Quinn Wins

A Quick note: this is my first post in a long time that focuses on race analysis without too many demographics. I used to have posts similar to this one in 2008 and early 2009 but I stopped because the horse race world was quiet. Now that election day is coming closer, I will do race analysis posts similar to my 2008 ones. Also, I will soon bring back the Senatorial and Gubernatorial rankings. Now onto the post:

In Illinois, Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached in early 2009 because he tried to sell Obama's Senate seat. Pat Quinn (D), the Lieutenant Governor replaced him. Now Quinn faces Downstate State Senator Bill Brady (R) who is very conservative. Brady won an upset by 200 votes in a crowded field in the February primary with big margins Downstate but he was crushed in the Chicagoland area. The campaign has barely started but Quinn is getting off to a poor start. Recently, he replaced his running mate Scott Lee Cohen (D) because Cohen was accused of domestic violence. The new candidate, Sheila Simon (D) is a professor from Downstate and yes, she is the daughter of the late Senator (not singer) Paul Simon (D). Although no poll have been released on this race since May 2nd, all polls show Brady with a high single digit or low double digit lead. Yes, Pat Quinn is behind but he can still pull off a win. Here is what he needs to do:

  • Distance himself from Blagojevich as much as possible. To do this, he needs to highlight how he was isolated from the Governor and did not speak with him for all of 2008. Also, he needs to highlight how Blagojevich said Quinn was not a member of Blagojevich's administration in 2006.
  • Highlight his ethical background: where he launched a panel to examine corruption in the University of Illinois. Also, he should highlight how he never used state money to pay for his trips, meals and hotel stays. If Pat Quinn wants to win, he needs to demonstrate he is not another corrupt Chicago politician.
  • Make the race about Brady: Quinn needs to paint Brady as who really is; a downstate social conservative. He needs to run ads showing Brady wants to eliminate the State Board of Education and how Brady voted against increasing the minimum wage.
  • Campaign hard in the suburbs: Quinn is from Chicago while Brady is from Bloomington which is Downstate. Brady should win almost every county (if not every county) in Downstate so Quinn needs to win as many suburban voters as possible.
  • Highlight Brady's positions while campaigning in the suburbs: Quinn needs to highlight how Brady opposes abortion even in cases of rape and that Brady voted against a bill to ban gay discrimination not with marriage but in the workplace. Brady even voted against a bill to increase funding for stem cell research and supports teaching intelligent design. Brady even supports concealed handguns and Chicago is mostly pro gun control. These are the issues that made the suburbs trend towards the Democratis in the 1990's. Although the social issues will motivate Democrats to turn out and vote, Quinn should not get carried away because the main issue for voters is the economy and jobs. If he can make his campaign in the suburbs half about Brady's social issues but half about how Quinn will create jobs, Quinn should win.
  • Do not bring up his tea parties unless they are absolutely necessary: in 1978, Quinn told people to send teabags to the current Illinois Governor due to state legislator pay raises. He could say he was one of the first real tea party people but this should depress Democratic turnout and Brady will win Downstate anyway.
Overall, Quinn should prove he is more connected to Chicagoland issues than Brady is but Quinn needs to define himself instead of being the "not Brady" candidate. Yes, Downstate is important and Democrats need to win in rural areas in states like Missouri to win elections. In Illinois though, Chicagoland has so many people so a Democrat can do well there, get crushed in Downstate but still win.

Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Oregon Gubernatorial Baselines

 In Oregon, Ted Kulogoshi (D) is not running for reelection as Governor. The Democrat running to replace him is John Kitzhaber (D) who is the former Governor of Oregon from 1994 to 2002. The Republican running is former basketball player Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber was a popular Governor and he was elected with 64% of the vote in 1998. A recent Rasmussen poll though showed Kitzhaber and Dudley tied. Kitzhaber should still win because Rasmussen has recently shown polls that favor Republicans. For the Arkansas Senatorial race, they found Republican John Boozmen winning against incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) by 38 points. Other polls show Boozmen winning by 10-15 points. For Oregon, other polls show Kitzhaber with a lead. This is an anti incumbent year but Kitzhaber has not been an incumbent for eight years. He was not very popular but Oregon has a strong Democratic lean so Kitzhaber should probably pull ahead.
For Kitzhaber to win, he needs to win big margins in Portland while carrying suburban Washington and Clackamas combined. He is from Portland but Dudley is from Lake Oswego in Clackamas County. Also, Kitzhaber needs to win traditionally Democratic rural counties like Clatsop and Tillamook counties where he performed very well in 1998. He hopefully will keep down Dudley's margins in the rural eastern part of the state.

This map here is the baselines of the Gubernatorial race. This map shows how the Oregon counties will vote if the Gubernatorial race is tied. I found the results by adding the 2008 Presidential election results to the 1998 Gubernatorial election results. I then divided by two to get the results shown below.

Link for 1998 election results:

Link for 2008 election results:

Here is a map of the baselines

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 60%+
Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+
Light Red: Dudley 50%+
Red: Dudley 60%+
Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

Now here is a chart of the percentages by county. The formatting is not working but it should not be too hard to follow.

Counties Kitzhaber Dudley

Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

Saturday, May 22, 2010

California Redistricting

(Beware, this post is very long so read if you are not in a rush.)

First, this is finally finished! It took me a couple of months to map and write, including when half of the write up mysteriously vanished.

This is a hypothetical map but I wanted to see how big a Democratic gerrymander I could create. I tried to keep only seven Republicans safe while making the other seats winnable for the Democrats. Although 2010 is definitely looking like a bad year for the Democrats, 2012 with Obama on the ticket should be better. 2010 should be better than expected but that's another story. I drew this map assuming California has 53 congressional districts after the census. Yes, I know that keeping only seven Republicans safe could turn into a dummymander because I weakened too many Democrats. I hope to avoid that and I made current Democrats safe. Many of  the shakier seats should trend Democratic overtime so the Democrats will be able to pick up all the seats I made for them sometime in the decade if not 2012. I created 33 Safe Democratic, 9 Likely Democratic, 3 Lean Democratic, 2 Toss Up, 1 Likely Republican and 6 Safe Republican seats. Besides the Republican district, Obama does not win less than 53% of the vote in any district. He wins 53% in only one and 54% in two. Also, I gave the Hispanics four new districts while increasing the Asian population in the 31st district and 15th district. I also protected two of LA's three African American representatives. Diane Watson is retiring so I made her district more Hispanic so the 34th and 36th districts will be more African American but the Hispanics will get an extra district.

(if the photo is not fitting on the blog, click it for the full picture. I apoligize for the poor quailty)

1st District Mike Thompson (D) St. Helena
Obama 203,307 62% McCain 117,072 36%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 13% Hispanic, 78% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Santa Rosa, Eureka
Status: Safe Democratic

I removed most of Napa County except for Thompson's home in St. Helena. I also added most of heavily Republican Shasta County. The North Coast keeps the district safely Democratic though.

2nd District Wally Herger (R) Chico
Obama 160,489 55%, McCain 122,712 43%
Change: Obama +24
Demographics: 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 72% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Davis
Status: Lean Democratic

Herger's seat makes a big turn to the left because I removed Shasta County and Republican parts of Butte County. I added parts of Democratic Sonoma and Yolo Counties. Herger is unfamiliar with these areas so he should have trouble making inroads in them. Although he still has his home in the district, I should say he will lose by seven points to a strong challenger.

3rd district Dan Lungren (R) Folsom
Obama 148,675 56% McCain 110,520 42%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 7% African American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 67% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Folsom, Citrus Heights
Status: Likely Democratic

Lungren is already shaky in his current 49%-49% seat so a 56% Obama seat would be too Democratic for him. I added parts of Sacramento where he is not entrenched while removing Republican areas outside of Sacramento County. A strong challenger in 2012 when Obama is on the ballot should be able to knock off Lungren.

4th District Tom McClintock (R) Granite Bay
Obama 149,211 41% McCain 203,357 57%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 8% Hispanic, 85% White
Communities of Interest: Roseville, Lincoln, Rocklin
Status: Safe Republican

The only real change is that McClintock loses the Democratic Lake Tahoe area. He gets even safer with the addition of more Republican areas.

5th District Doris Matsui (D) Sacramento
Obama 165,279 62% McCain 96,765 36%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 12% African American, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 50% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove,
Status: Safe Democratic

Although her district picks up some moderate Sacramento suburbs, her district still remains strong for her with a base in Sacramento.

(click for full picture)

6th District Lynn Woolsey (D) Petaluma
Obama 223,326 68% McCain 99,268 30%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: San Rafael, Petaluma, Napa, Yuba City
Status: Safe Democratic

First, this is my home district! I am not too pleased with this district because Central Valley Democrats will have an influence over voters next to San Francisco. The district is still anchored in the North Bay so when Woolsey retires, a North Bay Democrat will replace her. A good candidate is Jared Huffman, a liberal State Assembly member from Marin County which cast 48% of the district's Obama votes with 1/3 of the district's population. Marin County does not have a representative in the State Senate or the House so when Woolsey retires, Marin probably will have one in the House (finally.)

7th District George Miller (D) Martinez
Obama 182,391 68%, McCain 83,750 31%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 14% African American, 20% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg
Status: Safe Democratic

George Miller loses most of Richmond and gains all of Solano County which drops the Obama percentage a bit but Miller is still safe.

8th District Nancy Pelosi (D) San Francisco
Obama 282,287 85%, McCain 41,850 12%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 8% African American, 15% Hispanic, 29% Asian, 44% White
Communities of Interest: San Francisco
Status: Safe Democratic

Keeping all of San Francisco except part of the Sunset District, the district does not change a bit.

9th District Barbara Lee (D) Oakland
Obama 249,791 84%, McCain 41,860 14%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 27% African American, 19% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 36% White
Communities of Interest: Oakland, Berkeley, Lafayette
Status: Safe Democratic

Lee's district gets a bit more Republican by going into the less Democratic cities in the San Ramon Valley such as Danville and Orinda but still stays extremely safe.

10th District John Garamendi (D)
Obama 208,364 65% McCain 108,189 33%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 67% White
Communities of Interest: El Cerrito, Concord, Antioch, Lodi
Status: Safe Democratic
This district keeps its anchor in north-central Contra Costa County but gains mostly white but heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Oakland and goes further into the Central Valley to pick up Republican parts of San Joaquin County. Also for Garamendi, the district picks up a few more precincts in Sacramento County.

11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Pleasanton
Obama 164,551 58% McCain 115,845 40%
Change: Obama +8
Demographics: 5% African American, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 61% White
Communities of Interest: Pleasanton, Oakley, Tracy

Status: Likely Democratic

McNerney gets safer. I was able to give him Democratic Castro Valley and Oakley while removing the Republican area around Lodi. I slipped in Livermore too because Tauscher does not represent the 10th anymore and she wanted Livermore in her district. McNerney also picks up a few precincts in Stockton from the 18th district. Most of McNerney's old territory is in the district too.

12th District Jackie Speier (D) Hillsborough
Obama 216,684 74% McCain 70,455 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: Hispanic 20%, Asian 27%, 46% White
Communities of Interest: South San Francisco (the industrial city,) Redwood City, Half Moon Bay
Status: Safe Democratic

The district picks up the San Mateo County coastline and part of Redwood City but besides that, the district remains the same.

13th District Pete Stark (D) Fremont
Obama 183,890 74%, McCain 58,035 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 7% African American, 25% Hispanic, 23% Asian, 40% White
Communities of Interest: Hayward, Fremont, Santa Clara
Status: Safe Democratic

Stark's district loses some of Fremont to the plurality Asian 15th and gains minority majority areas in Sunnyvalle and Santa Clara. These changes should affect the district much.

14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Atherton
Obama 220,962 70% McCain 90,352 28%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 13% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Los Altos, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

The district loses all of Santa Cruz County and goes into mostly white areas formerly in the 15th district. Although the changes rise the McCain percentage a bit, Eshoo is still very safe and has her home in the district.

15th District Mike Honda (D) San Jose
Obama: 170,000 70% McCain 69,345 28%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 43% Asian, 31% White
Communities of Interest: Fremont, San Jose, Cupertino
Status: Safe Democratic

This is one of the two Asian plurality districts I created on the map. I added Union City and Asian parts of Fremont while removing white neighborhoods in western San Jose. Honda should be safe here.

16th District Zoe Lofgren (D) San Jose
Obama 130,902 67% McCain 60,558 32%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 13% Asian, 50% Hispanic, 29% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Watsonville, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

I think Zoe is a great representative but I had to create more districts for Hispanic representatives. This district keeps Hispanic areas in San Jose and picks up Hispanic areas in San Benito, Santa Cruz and Fresno Counties. Although 50% Hispanic is barely a majority, the number should be 54% about now and Hispanics outside her district are not used to voting for her in the primary.

17th District Sam Farr (D) Carmel
Obama 216,197 65% McCain 109,291 33%
Change: McCain +14
Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: San Carlos, Santa Cruz, Monterey
Status: Safe Democratic

The district gets whiter and safer for Farr. It is interesting though having a district represent Peninsula and San Luis Obisbo communities. I removed Hispanic parts of Monterey County and San Benito County while adding Republican eastern San Luis Obisbo County as well as some white San Mateo County neighborhoods. Farr is still very safe.

18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Atwater
Obama 96,786 61% McCain 59,722 37%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 6% African American, 46% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 36% White
Communities of Interest: Stockton, Modesto, Merced
Status: Safe Democratic

Cardoza loses whiter parts of Merced County and picks up more Hispanic neighborhoods in Madera County, making the district a tad more Democratic and Hispanic.

19th District George Radanovich (R) Mariposa
Obama 115,407 41% McCain 157,413 57%
Change: McCain +10
Communities of Interest: Clovis, Madera, Merced
Status: Safe Republican

Radanovich’s district was safe already but now it is even safer with the removal of Democratic parts of Fresno and the inclusion of Republican parts of Merced. Also, Yosemite National Park which is Democratic was removed.

20th District Jim Costa (D) Fresno
Obama 91,480 59% McCain 61,190 40%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 6% African American, 55% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 27% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Salinas, Shafter
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Costa’s district picks up Democratic and Hispanic areas in Monterey County, the district grows more Republican as it extends into Republican white areas around Fresno formerly in the 19th district. Costa’s district is still Hispanic and Democratic.

21st District Devin Nunes (R) Tulare
Obama 70,892 53% McCain 61,228 46%
Change: Obama +22
Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 25% White
Communities of Interest: Bakersfield, Visalia, Delano
Status: Likely Democratic

This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Central Valley. Nunes’s district now takes in Hispanic parts of Fresno County and Hispanic parts of Tulare County. The district also takes in Hispanic parts of Bakersfield. This district is probably too Hispanic for Nunes so he will probably not run here. The Democrats should find a Hispanic candidate who will help increase the Obama percentage by turning out the Hispanics and having them vote more Democratic. Even if Nunes runs, he should lose.

22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Bakersfield
Obama 96,063 37% McCain 161,271 61%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 67% White
Communities of Interest: Bakersfield, Visalia, California City
Status: Safe Republican

McCarthy’s district changes as it loses San Luis Obisbo County and picks up Republican parts of Tulare and Ventura Counties. It even goes into Simi Valley which is close to the San Fernando Valley. Nunes might run in this district because the 21st is too Democratic for him. McCarthy should win because most of his current district is in the new 22nd district.

23rd District Lois Capps (D) Santa Barbara
Obama 187,384 61% McCain 115,227 37%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 31% Hispanic, 60% White
Communities of Interest: San Luis Obisbo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Status: Safe Democratic

Capps’s district gets less Democratic. I removed heavily Hispanic Oxnard and added the Republican interior of Santa Barbara County. I also added Ventura and Ojai which lean Democratic. The only place where Capps’s district is a line along the coast is in San Luis Obisbo County. Although her district becomes similar to the competitive 1990’s lines, she is entrenched enough and the areas trended Democratic enough to protect her.

24th District Elton Gallegy (R) Simi Valley
Obama 149,125 59% McCain 100,007 40%
Change: Obama +16
Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 45% White
Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, San Fernando Valley
Status: Likely Democratic

Gallegy’s district gets much more Democratic and the Hispanic population rises from 24% to 39% with the inclusion of Oxnard, Hispanic areas in the San Fernando Valley and the loss of interior Santa Barbara County. Although Gallegy is a popular incumbent, the 24th district is too Democratic. He is also not entrenched in Oxnard and the San Fernando Valley. This should get him to retire which he has been considering. This is a good district for Brad Sherman to run in because his district is combined with the more entrenched Howard Berman. The 24th also contains part of Sherman's current district. If Sherman ran, he would definitely win here.

25th District Buck McKeon (R) Santa Clarita
Obama 135,401 55% McCain 106,766 43%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 9% African American, 31% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Lancaster, Victorville, South Lake Tahoe
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Although Buck McKeon does not live in the district, it belongs to him because it contains most of his old territory. It will be harder for him to win because I added the Democratic Lake Tahoe area, moved Republican Santa Clarita and added a few Hispanic neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley. Although McKeon is popular, the district is trending Democratic, especially around Lancaster and Palmdale. If the Democrats find a great candidate, they should be able to kick off McKeon.

26th District Vacant (D)
Obama 128,868 63% McCain 71,638 36%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 5% African American, 56% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 28% White
Communities of Interest: Upland, Glendora, San Fernando
Status: Safe Democratic

This new district is also a new Hispanic majority district. It looks like David Dreier’s (R) current district but this district picks up heavily Hispanic areas instead of areas that lean Republican. It does contain Glendora which is Republican though. Still, a Democratic should have no trouble winning here and a 56% Hispanic population (and increasing) should be enough to elect a Hispanic representative.

27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Green
Obama 204,550 65% McCain 104,583 33%
Change: McCain +22
Demographics: 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, San Fernando Valley, Burbank
Status: Safe Democratic

Berman’s district gets less Democratic with the inclusion of Santa Clarita and more white but remains heavily Democratic. Sherman has less territory here than Berman so if I were Sherman, I would run in the 24th District which has part of Sherman’s current territory.

28th District Adam Schiff (D) Burbank (originally the 29th)
Obama 179,592 68% McCain 80,069 30%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Pasadena, Glendale, La Canada Flitridge
Status: Safe Democratic

Schiff’s district remains pretty similar with a high enough white population to keep him in office and Democratic.

29th District Henry Waxman (D) Los Angeles (originally the 30th)
Obama 245,543 68% McCain 111,756 30%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Thousand Oaks, Beverly Hills, Santa Monica
Status: Safe Democratic

Waxman’s district picks up marginal Thousand Oaks and loses a few Democratic areas in the San Fernando Valley. These minor changes do not affect the district’s strong Democratic lean.

30th District Xavier Beccara (D) Eagle Rock (originally the 31st)
Obama 141,239 81% McCain 29,245 17%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 5% African American, 61% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 16% White
Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic

Beccara’s district was formerly 70% Hispanic but now has less Hispanics with the inclusion of white areas formerly in Watson’s district. Beccara’s district is still heavily Hispanic and safely Democratic though.

31st District Judy Chu (D) Monterey Park (originally the 32nd)
Obama 132,559 62% McCain 78,365 36%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 38% Asian, 18% White
Communities of Interest: El Monte, Temple City, Walnut
Status: Safe Democratic

I know that Asians do not vote as one bloc but I think if given the choice, they will support an Asian candidate over a Hispanic one. Chu’s district gets more Asian with a small line to Walnut and Diamond Bar and the exclusion of Baldwin Park and the vicinity. Her district gets more Republican but she is still safe.

32nd District Diane Watson (D) Los Angeles (originally the 33rd) Orange color
Obama 149,611 83% McCain 28,305 16%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 20% African American, 53% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 12% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Huntington Park
Status: Safe Democratic

Watson is retiring and the Hispanic population is getting too high in Los Angeles to keep three districts with African American representatives. I removed white areas in the northern part of the district and added Hispanic areas on the east and west sides of the original 35th district while taking out some African American areas in the district’s center. The Hispanic population will keep growing so the district should elect a Hispanic.

33rd District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Los Angeles (formerly the 34th)
Obama 123,083 66% McCain 59,211 32%
Change: McCain +18
Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 18% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Park, Downey, La Habra
Status: Safe Democratic

Allard’s district gets more Republican with losing some Hispanic areas in Los Angeles and adding whiter Whitter and La Habra. Although La Habra is Republican, Allard’s district is still safe and Democratic.

34th District Maxine Waters (D)
Obama 202,877 88% McCain 23,877 10%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 43% African American, 41% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Inglewood, Gardena
Status: Safe Democratic

Waters’s district gets safer as the African American population increases from 34% to 43%. Also, something interesting is you can see how high African American turnout really was by looking at the precincts. There were 930 votes in a 92% African American precinct with 1,380 people.

35th District Jane Harman (D) Venice (formerly the 36th) Purple
Obama 192,875 62% McCain 113,650 36%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 26% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Torrance, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach
Status: Safe Democratic

Harman’s district gets more Republican with the addition of Rancho Palos Verdes which leans Republican. Communities in the district’s northern part like Venice keep Harman safe though.

36th District Laura Richardson (D) Long Beach (formerly the 37th)

Obama 162,948 71% McCain 61,850 28%
Change: McCain +18
Demographics: 22% African American, 40% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 23% White
Communities of Interest: Carson, Compton, Seal Beach
Status: Safe Democratic

Adding Orange County communities that lean Republican such as Seal Beach and Los Alamitos make this district more Republican. They also reduce the Hispanic population by a few points though. Richardson should have no problems from Republicans in a district where McCain won 28% of the vote though.

37th District Grace Napolitiano (D) Norwalk (formerly the 38th district)
Obama 131,462 67% McCain 59,629 31%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 66% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 14% White
Communities of Interest: Baldwin Park, Chino Hills, Pico Rivera
Status: Safe Democratic

Grace Napolitiano (D) has her home in the 38th district but she should run here because this district has most of her current district. The district becomes a bit gerrymandered by having the 32nd cut into the middle of it. Also, her district gets Republican Chino Hills. It is still safely Democratic though.

38th District Linda Sanchez (D) Lakewood (formerly the 39th)
Obama 135,584 60% McCain 87,210 38%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 6% African American, 54% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 29% White
Communities of Interest: Lynwood, Bellflower, Fullerton
Status: Safe Democratic

Napolitiano should run in the 37th district so Sanchez should be safe from a primary challenge. Also, the district should be Hispanic and Democratic enough to protect her from Republicans. Her district does get weaker with the addition of Republican parts of Fullerton though.

39th District Ed Royce (R) Fullerton (formerly the 40th district)
Obama 113,574 54% McCain 93,975 44%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 35% White
Communities of Interest: Norwalk, Cypress, Anaheim
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Royce’s district gets much more Democratic with the addition of Democratic parts of Anaheim, Norwalk and he loses Republican parts of Fullerton to the 42nd. Royce is pretty entrenched in his district but not in the Norwalk area so Democrats have a strong shot at replacing him. Also, it would not be easy for a Republican to win in a 35% White district (and decreasing.)

40th District David Dreier (R) San Dimas (formerly the 26th)
Obama 127,168 58% McCain 89,498 40%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 7% African American, 46% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 37% White
Communities of Interest: Pomona, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga
Status: Likely Democratic

Dreier is a pretty popular incumbent but even he will have trouble in a 58% Obama district with unfamiliar territory such as Azusa, Ontario and Pomona. He also loses the most Republican parts of his current district. Dreier will probably not run and a Democrat will win easily. If Dreier runs, he will probably not be strong enough to compete with the new Democratic areas. I hope a Hispanic politician wins this seat and although Hispanics do not make a large share of voters, there should be more in the Democratic primary.

41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Redlands
Obama 104,391 41% McCain 147,051 57%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 20% Hispanic, 69% White
Communities of Interest: Hesperia, Beaumont, Yucaipa
Status: Safe Republican

Lewis was extremely safe before and he gets even safer. Enough said.

42nd District Gary Miller (R) Diamond Bar
Obama 131,169 40% McCain 189,640 58%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Murrieta, Rancho Santa Margarita
Status: Safe Republican

Miller loses his home but he does not have to live in this district to run. His district gets more Republican by picking up the Lake Forest area formerly in the 44th and Murrieta formerly in the 45th. He has no worries.

43rd District Joe Baca (D) Rialto
Obama 107,522 66% McCain 52,753 32%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 14% African American, 51% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 27% White
Communities of Interest: San Bernadino, Fontana, Ontario
Status: Safe Democratic

Baca’s district gets less Hispanic but the Hispanic population is growing quickly and he is entrenched enough to survive. He should have no problems from Republicans though.

44th District Ken Calvert (R) Corona
Obama 92,733 56% McCain 70,846 43%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 7% African American, 43% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 41% White
Communities of Interest: Riverside, Norco, Colton
Status: Likely Democratic

In 2008, Calvert barely won reelection but he lost Riverside County. Now with the Republican parts of Orange County removed, Calvert is in trouble. I also removed Republican areas in Riverside County too and the addition of heavily Hispanic Colton does not help Calvert either. Since Calvert was already weak, it should not be too difficult to find a challenger, get the DCCC interested and kick out Calvert.

45th District Mary Bono (R) Palm Springs

Obama 113,612 57% McCain 82,064 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 10% African American, 36% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Moreno Valley, Perris, San Jacinto
Status: Lean Democratic

Bono is a popular moderate incumbent but she will probably lose here. I added Democratic Perris and Lake Elsinore while removing Hemet. Also, the district has fast growing African American and Hispanic populations so if a Democrat is not reelected in 2012, a Democrat certainly will be soon.

46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Huntington Beach

Obama 163,591 55% McCain 127,405 43%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 23% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 58% White
Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa
Status: Lean Democratic

Rohrabacher keeps most of his old district where he is entrenched. Still, the addition of Irvine and Democratic Long Beach areas should be enough to unseat him with a good candidate.

47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Garden Grove
Obama 89,040 55% McCain 69,075 43%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 19% Asian, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Tustin
Status: Likely Democratic

Sanchez’s district gets less Democratic and Hispanic but Sanchez is entrenched and should win Hispanic by large margins.

48th District John Campbell (R) Irvine  Peach
Obama 135,283 48% McCain 144,225 51%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 21% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 65% White
Communities of Interest: Vista, Oceanside, Lake Forest
Status: Likely Republican

Yes, I know Campbell is a birther but I realized that if I tried to get rid of him, I would make other seats safer for Republicans that I wanted Democratic. Campbell’s district is mostly shifted out of the Irvine area into more conservative Vista and Oceanside. By the end of the decade, Campbell should be vulnerable but for now, he is unfortunately safe.

49th District Darrell Issa (R) Vista
Obama 113,663 39% McCain 175,745 59%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 73% White
Communities of Interest: Hemet, Temecula, Poway
Status: Safe Republican

Issa’s home is not in the district but he should not mind. His district gets more Republican with the loss of Perris and Lake Elsinore.

50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Carlsbad
Obama 187,575 56% McCain 144,396 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 70% White
Communities of Interest: Carlsbad, Escondido, San Diego
Status: Likely Democratic

Bilbray has faced close races in his currently marginal district but the addition of liberal parts of San Diego near the coast make the district more Democratic. He also loses more conservative areas in the east to the 53rd district. These changes should be enough to elect a Democrat.

51st District Bob Filner (D) San Diego
Obama 112,770 63% McCain 64,790 36%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 7% African American, 62% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 19% White
Communities of Interest: Indio, El Centro, Chula Vista
Status: Safe Democratic

I think Bob Filner is fine but I wanted another Hispanic congressman so I increased the Hispanic population from 53% to 62%. Although Filner has not faced many challenges recently, the change in population should attract a strong Hispanic candidate.

52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) Lakeside
Obama 135,237 56% McCain 101,445 42%
Change: Obama +22
Demographics: 7% African American, 29% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: La Mesa, El Cajon, Chula Vista
Status: Likely Democratic

This district undergoes one of the largest partisan changes under my plan. Duncan Hunter Jr. is new to this district. The addition of Chula Vista and Democratic parts of San Diego unfamiliar with him (and his father) will not help him. The changes should make the district Democratic enough to elect a Democrat.

53rd District Susan Davis (D) San Diego
Obama 167,156 60% McCain 107,595 38%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 7% African American, 24% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Cornado, Imperial Beach, San Diego
Status: Safe Democratic

Davis’s district goes inland and therefore gets more Republican but coastal areas keep this district Democratic.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Baselines for Florida's Gubernatorial Race

 Charlie Crist (R), the current Governor of Florida is not running for reelection this year because he is running for Senate as an Independent (which is another story.) He leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink  is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a Rasmussen poll showed McCollum leading by 7. This poll on April 16th is the most recent poll on the race and Rasmussen usually leans to the right. For these reasons, it is hard to tell if McCollum still has a lead. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes.

Sink's background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education commission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)
McCollum's background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.

About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is...the rest of Florida.

How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Here are some helpful links:
For 2006 CFO election:

For 2006 Attorney General election:

For 2008 Presidential election:

Now finally the baselines:
County name Sink McCollum Other
Alachua          59%  40%  1%
Baker             27%  72%  1%
Bay                32%  67%  1%
Bradford        35%  64%  1%
Brevard          45%  54%  1%
Broward         66%  33%  1%
Calhoun          42%  57%  1%
Charlotte        44%  55%  1%
Citrus             44%  55%  1%
Clay               28%  71%  1%
Collier            35%  64%  1%
Columbia       39%  60%  1%
DeSoto          43%  56%   1%
Dixie              42%  57%   1%
Duval             44%  55%  1%
Escambia       38%  61%  1%
Flager            49%  50%  1%
Franklin         47%  52%  1%
Gadsden        72%  27%  1%
Gilchrest        39%  60%  1%
Glades          47%  52%  1%
Gulf              43%  56%  1%
Hamilton       51%  48%  1%
Hardee         36%  63%  1%
Hendry         45%  54%  1%
Hernando     47%  52%  1%
Highlands      41%  58%  1%
Hillsborough  48% 51% 1%
Holmes           31% 68% 1%
Indian River    40% 59% 1%
Jackson          43% 56% 1%
Jefferson         60% 39% 1%
Lafayette        38% 61% 1%
Lake              41% 58% 1%
Lee                41% 58% 1%
Leon              63% 36% 1%
Levy              44% 55% 1%
Liberty           45% 54% 1%
Madison        56% 43% 1%
Manatee        45% 54% 1%
Marion          44% 55% 1%
Martin           42% 57% 1%
Miami-Dade  56% 43% 1%
Monroe         52% 47% 1%
Nassau          31% 68%  1%
Okaloosa      26%  73% 1%
Okeechobee  46% 53% 1%
Orange          53%  46%  1%
Osceola        52%  47%  1%
Palm Beach   62%  37%  1%
Pasco            46%  53%  1%
Pinellas          51%  48%  1%
Polk              44%  55%  1%
Putnam          44%  55%  1%
Santa Rosa    27%  72%  1%
Sarasota        48%  51%  1%
Seminole        43%  56%  1%
St. Johns        34%  65%  1%
St. Lucie        53%  46%   1%
Sumter          37%   62%   1%
Suwanee       38%   61%   1%
Taylor           44%   55%   1%
Union            35%   64%   1%
Volusia          51%   48%   1%
Wakulla         50%  49%    1%
Walton          30%  69%    1%
Washington   34%  65%    1%

Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.
Dark Red: McCollum 65%+
Red: McCollum 60%-64%
Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%
Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%
Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%
Blue: Sink 55%-59%
Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%
Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+

A little more analysis:

The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink's margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County's leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.

Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama's coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular Florida election.