Friday, August 5, 2011

Maryland Redistricting 8-0 Democratic

I previously drew a Maryland redistricting map http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2010/12/maryland-redistricting-7-1-d.html with partisan data but this new map is designed to elect an 8-0 Democratic delegation. The last map was designed for a 7-1 Democratic delegation. I previously thought that an 8-0 Democratic map was too risky because it may endanger Democratic incumbents such as Dutch Ruppersberger (D) because his district would add Republican areas to open other districts to Democratic challengers. Currently, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D) and many other Maryland Democrats are pushing for a 7-1 Delegation by either forcing Rep. Andy Harris (R) or Roscoe Bartlett (R) into a Democratic district. I drew this 8-0 Democratic map to demonstrate that Democrats can draw an 8-0 Democratic map in Maryland while protecting their incumbents. The Democrats need to draw an 8-0 map in Maryland because it is one of the few states where Democrats hold the trifecta. Republicans are drawing extremely grotesque gerrymanders in states such as North Carolina, severely under representing the Democratic voters so the Democrats need to counterbalance that with maps in states such as Maryland. The 8-0 map I drew also follows the guidelines of the VRA so two districts will have African American majorities while making sure that no district voted less than 55% Obama. To calculate the district's Democratic percentage though, I am also using the statewide average of all statewide races from 2006 to 2008. Also, the Demographics 18+ means the demographics for voters 18 and older. Anyway, here are the maps:


Maryland's current congressional maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd112_md.pdf


Maryland

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris? (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 170,838 55.2%, McCain 134,240 43.4%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,832 56.6%, Rep 111,834 43.4%
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 62.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 26.7% African American, 64.9% White
Old Presidential Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Status: Lean Democratic

In 2010, Andy Harris won in the 1st district by 13 points against Frank Kratovli (D) but underperformed McCain's 18 point win in the district. Harris does not even live in the new 1st district, he lives in Cockeysville, a Baltimore suburb in Baltimore County. He will probably run here though because this 1st district contains more than half of his current district. The new 1st district though is different from his current district. Instead of representing conservative Baltimore suburban communities, the district crosses the bridge and represents Annapolis and eastern Prince Georges County. These changes increase the African American population from 11% to 27% and the Obama percentage from 40% to 55%. If Kratovli ran in 2012, he would probably win because of high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County and ticket splitting for Kratovli in the Eastern Shore. Even in a midterm year, Kratovli should win because Prince Georges County is trending Democratic extremely quickly. Governor Martin O’Malley won 56% statewide in his reelection campaign but won 88% in Prince Georges County, just behind Obama’s 89% despite underperforming Obama more in the rest of the state. One possibility is that a Prince Georges County candidate would primary him but because 61% of the district's Obama vote was cast outside of the county, Kratovli should win a primary.

Baltimore Area
Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 163,753 57.0%, McCain 117,575 40.9%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 146,162 62.7%, Rep 86,796 37.3%
Demographics: 5.2% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 25.7% African American, 62.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 23.5% African American, 65.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district currently has convoluted lines but they become less convoluted on this map. The 2nd district becomes more centered around Baltimore County as it loses most of its Anne Arundel County portion and gains more of Baltimore County by gaining Pikesville, Perry Hill and Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses Randallstown, a heavily Democratic area so the Obama percentage drops from 60% to 57%. 57% should be enough to protect Ruppersberger who won reelection easily in 2010, a very strong Republican year. Also, the district's average is 62.7% Dem, close to the statewide average of 62.9% Dem. This area also has a reputation for voting strongly Democratic in local races such as House races. Also, the new district has a larger portion of heavily Democratic Baltimore City than the current district does. Ruppersberger should not have much trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 179,121 60.4%, McCain 111,585 37.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 150,898 62.7%, Rep 89,590 37.3%
Demographics: 6.0% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 25.9% African American, 57.6% White
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 24.2% African American, 61.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd district becomes more centered around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties as it loses Pikesville and Randallstown in Baltimore County. It gains more of Columbia and even a few precincts in Montgomery County. These changes boost the Obama percentage up to 60% which should keep Sarbanes safe from a Republican challenge. One issue though is that Sarbanes lives in Towson in Baltimore County and the majority of the district's population is not in Baltimore County so a primary challenge is possible. Sarbanes should win though because he has won primary challenges easily since 2006 when he won the seat. Also, he retains a large portion of Anne Arundel which was his best county in the competitive 2006 primary. In that primary, Sarbanes did not win Baltimore County so losing part of it may actually help him in the primary.

Washington Suburbs

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 236,034 77.3%, McCain 66,083 21.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 178,705 75.1%, Rep 59,312 24.9%
Demographics: 5.7% Asian, 13.0% Hispanic, 50.4% African American, 28.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.8% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 50.3% African American, 30.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district stays strongly Democratic but becomes more Republican as it loses part of central Prince Georges County and most of its Montgomery County portion. The 4th district does gain part of southwest Prince Georges County around Fort Washington, a few precincts in Democratic leaning Charles County, swing parts of Howard County and some conservative precincts in Carroll County. I added the Howard and Carroll County precincts to this district in order to protect the 3rd, 7th and 8th districts from becoming susceptible to a serious Republican challenge. This district also remains majority African American so it follows the VRA and the 28% white percentage should not be enough for a primary challenge against Edwards. The 4th district also gains more precincts around her home, Fort Washington.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 194,351 58.6%, McCain 132,523 40.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 162,906 60.9%, Rep 104,727 39.1%
Demographics: 7.8% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Hispanic, 27.3% African American, 60.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes more Republican as it gains the Severna Park area formerly in the 1st district. The 5th district also loses part of the heavily Democratic College Park and Fort Washington areas but gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Forestville. A string of heavily Democratic precincts in Prince Georges County connects the northern and southern part of the districts. The loss of eastern Prince Georges County to make the 1st district more Democratic brings the Obama percentage in the district down to 58.6%. Hoyer should have no worries though because he is entrenched with the Republican voters in St. Mary's and Calvert Counties and the district is trending Democratic with Charles County having African Americans move in from Prince Georges County.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 181,492 60.6%, McCain 113,197 37.8%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 156,046 62.0%, Rep 95,700 38.0%
Demographics: 7.4% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic, 11.5% African American, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5 Asian, 10.7% Hispanic, 11.6% African American, 68.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district (formerly numbered the 8th) becomes more Republican as Montgomery County's portion of the district is reduced to 59% and the other 41% is Republican counties in western Maryland such as Washington and Alleghany. The 8th district retains heavily Democratic areas in Montgomery County though including Silver Spring, Bethesda and Wheaton. Although the Obama percentage in this district drops to 60.6%, Van Hollen should have no trouble winning in this district due to its Democratic percentage and his fundraising ability. Also, the district is trending Democratic as Democrats continue to move into Montgomery County. Connie Morella (R) who represented part of Montgomery County in the House until 2002 is now 80 years old so she will probably not run here.

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 214,229 67.2%, McCain 99,716 31.3%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 166,639 65.3%, Rep 88,700 34.7%
Demographics: 50.8% African American, 41.8% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Howard County and gains conservative Baltimore exurbs in Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Although these areas are heavily Republican, the 7th district retains heavily Democratic precincts in Baltimore City and west Baltimore County, easily offsetting the Republican votes. The district also retains its VRA protection with a majority African American 18+ population. Cummings should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District (formerly numbered the 6th) Roscoe Bartlett (R)Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 181,059 59.4%, McCain 118,965 39.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,341 59.0%, Rep 101,087 41.0%
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 13.2% Hispanic, 12.1% African American, 60.3% White
Demographics18+: 11.5% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic,11.4% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Likely Democratic if Bartlett runs, Safe Democratic if Bartlett does not run

Great grandfather and 85 year old Bartlett may decide to retire now that his district’s McCain percentage dropped from 58% to 39%. Although Bartlett is entrenched in his district, he is unfamiliar with the voters in Montgomery County which has a fast growing minority population. The district’s new lines may convince Bartlett to retire. A Democrat should win this district by winning high margins in Montgomery County. They should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and Democratic trending Frederick County.

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