Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Maryland 7-0-1

I am aware this is my 5th Maryland map that I have drawn. I wanted to draw a map though that created a 7-0-1 map with seven heavily Democratic seats and one swing seat. Creating an 8-0 map would require taking some Democratic precincts from Prince Georges County into the 1st district on the Eastern Shore and most legislators from Prince Georges County do not want that to happen. They recently for the map Maryland just passed with seven Democratic districts and one heavily Republican district. Instead of drawing a map that way, I drew a map with two majority African American districts, safe districts for all incumbents, a new Democratic district in western Maryland and a swing district combining the Eastern Shore with Democratic parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Also, this map features a new minority majority district. Anyway, here are the maps:

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris (R) Blue
Obama 48.0%, McCain 50.3%
Average: Dem 49.8%, Rep 50.2%
Demographics 18+: 4.7% Hispanic, 16.9% African American, 74.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Tossup

Harris does not live in this district anymore because his home is in Baltimore County and this district loses all of its territory in Baltimore County. This district retains all of the Eastern Shore which Harris previously represented so he may decide to run here. The 1st district gains Democratic leaning Annapolis, some Democratic leaning areas in western Anne Arundel County and a few Democratic precincts in Howard County. Even though McCain won the district, the district's Democratic average is nearly a tie. Also, Frank Kratovli (D) from the Eastern Shore may run here and he over performs in the Eastern Shore so if he runs, the Democratic areas outside of the Eastern Shore should be able to offset smaller Republican margins on the Eastern Shore.

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Obama 57.7%, McCain 40.3%
Average: Dem 63.1%, Rep 36.9%
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Hispanic, 4.6% Asian, 24.1% African American, 65.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 2nd Congressional district becomes a bit more Republican as it gains a few Republican areas from the 1st district such as Perry and parts of Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses all of its territory in Anne Arundel County as it becomes centered around Baltimore County and Baltimore City. Although the district is a bit less Democratic than before, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning here. The area votes heavily Democratic at a local level. It is possible Andy Harris (R) decides to run here but the nearly 58% Obama numbers may discourage him.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Obama 58.4%, McCain 39.6%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.8% Asian, 22.0% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd Congressional district changes a bit as it loses all of its area in Baltimore County except for Towson where Sarbanes lives. This district becomes focused around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, gaining parts of Columbia and Ellicot City that were formerly in the 7th district. The district remains strongly Democratic though with the 58% Obama number.

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Obama 75.5%, McCain 23.5%
Average: Dem 73.3%, Rep 26.7%
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian, 50.3% African American, 35.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

Edwards's district becomes more Republican as it gains most of heavily Republican Carroll County. The district retains minority heavy parts of Montgomery County as Edwards requested. The district retains heavily Democratic and African American parts of Prince Georges County, maintaining its VRA status and remaining too Democratic for a Republican to win.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.6%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 5.4% Hispanic, 33.1% African American, 55.7% Whiite
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th congressional district does not undergo major changes as it retains the southern portion of Maryland. It does gain the swingy Crofton area though while losing some precincts near Crofton and Laurel in Prince Georges County. Obama's 62% of the vote in this district though should ensure that it will remain in Democratic hands.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Obama 60.7%, McCain 37.6%
Average: Dem 62.1%, Rep 37.9%
Demographics 18+: 10.4% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 9.0% African American, 70.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Status: Likely Democratic

This district contains Van Hollen's home but makes major changes in its territory. While it retains heavily Democratic areas near Bethesda and Rockville, it also gains the Republican areas in the western part of the state in Alleghany, Garrett and Washington Counties. Van Hollen is very popular in his district though and the 60.7% Obama number should prevent Republican challengers such as Roscoe Bartlett (R) from successfully winning the district.

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Obama 67.8%, McCain 30.6%
Average: Dem 66.1%, Rep 33.9%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th Congressional district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Howard County and gains the heavily Republican areas of Harford and north Baltimore Counties. The even more strongly Democratic precincts in Baltimore City though keep this district strongly in the Democratic column.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (R) SlateBlue
Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.3%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 8.7% Asian, 20.1% Hispanic, 19.3% African American, 49.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Bartlett's home of Frederick is in the 8th district, he will probably not run here because of the 65% Obama numbers in this district. The 8th congressional district loses the heavily Republican western parts of Maryland with Alleghany and Garrett Counties while losing conservative areas in Carroll and Baltimore Counties. The 8th district then gains Democratic parts of Montgomery County such as Gaithersburg and even gains a small portion of Prince Georges County. Van Hollen may decide to run in the 8th district instead of the 6th district even though he does not live in the new 8th.

1 comment:

BobbyG said...

The northern portion of the area added to the Maryland 7th was the basis for what remains of the Maryland Republican party. What we have now is just another Baltimore City Democratic POL.

It seems our state government thinks of it as mind over matter, (They don't mind, and we don't matter). Our new congressman likely thinks the resorts where party social events are held are farms.

Here are some areas he is likely to run into trouble:

He hates guns. We hunt up here.

Our schools have graduation rates in the 90% area. We want them left alone.

People in northern Baltimore county are fairly well off because they work like hell, save and educate their children. They also expect everyone else to do the same.

The only thing we get from Baltimore City are crime, drugs and gangs. We don't want them.