Friday, August 19, 2011

Florida Fair Redistricting Part II: Central Florida

This is the 2nd post out of 3 posts analyzing fair redistricting in Florida. Here is my 1st post: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html

Tampa Area

Florida's 10th Congressional District Bill Young (R) Deepink
Presidential Data: Obama 188,941 56.4%, McCain 146,119 43.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 12.3% African American, 8.3% Hispanic, 74.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 7.1% Hispanic, 77.8% White
Status: Likely Republican if Bill Young runs, Likely Democratic if not

The 10th district becomes more Democratic as it adds Democratic parts of St. Petersburg that were previously in the 11th district. The current 11th district jumped across Tampa Bay to grab Democratic parts of St. Petersburg but the 10th now combines communities of interest by representing all of Pinellas County except for the northern part. As for the district's representative, Bill Young (R) who is 80 years old has represented the area since 1971 and has won reelection easily in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. The addition of Democratic areas should not be enough to unseat him but they may prompt him to retire. If he retires, this seat should be competitive but the district's 56% Obama percentage should give the Democrats an advantage.

Florida's 11th Congressional District Kathy Castor (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 169,053 61.2%, McCain 107,391 38.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 20.5% African American, 28.2% Hispanic, 45.8% White
Demographics 18+: 18.6% African American, 26.6% Hispanic, 49.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 11th district becomes more compact as it loses the string connecting it to Democratic neighborhoods in Bradenton and St. Petersburg. The 11th district now contains Tampa Bay and its close in suburbs. These changes make the 11th district more Republican but Hillsborough County's Democratic trend and Obama's 61% in the district should keep Castor safe from a Republican challenge.

I-4 Corridor

Florida's 12th Congressional District Dennis Ross (R) Cornflower Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 129,100 45.5%, McCain 154,360 54.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 13.1% African American, 18.3% Hispanic, 65.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 15.4% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Status: Likely Republican

Ross receives a safer district under this plan. He gains all of Republican leaning Polk County while losing marginal Tampa suburbs including Brandon and Riverview. Although many of the districts on this plan become more favorable to Democrats, this district becomes safer for Republicans. If the Hispanic growth continues in Polk County though, Democrats may have a shot here soon.

Florida's 13th Congressional District Vern Buchanan (R) Darksalmon
Presidential Data: Obama 167,628 48.2%, McCain 179,797 51.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 6.6% African American, 12.3% Hispanic, 78.1% White
Demographics 18+: 5.5% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the 13th district becomes a tad more Democratic with the loss of Republican leaning De Soto and Hardee Counties with the addition of Democratic areas in Bradenton, Buchanan should win here. He is a popular incumbent with a large warchest, winning in the Democratic wave years of 2006 and 2008. He also performed strongly in 2010, winning with 69% of the vote.

Florida's 14th Congressional District  Vacant Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 155,609 58.5%, McCain 110,466 41.5%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 40.0% Hispanic, 43.5% White
Demographics 18+: 8.4% African American, 37.6% Hispanic, 46.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Under the current lines, the Orlando area is unfairly represented because there is no district completely within its metropolitan area. Districts such as the 3rd and 8th represent Orlando but also represent other portions of the state such as Jacksonville and Ocala. The 14th district though completely represents the Orlando metropolitan area, containing suburban Osceola County and part of Orange County. The district will probably elect a white representative but a Hispanic candidate could win soon because of the district's fast growing Hispanic population. The district should also elect a Democrat because of the 58.5% Obama percentage.

Florida's 15th Congressional District  Vacant Dark Orange
Presidential Data: Obama 173,124 61.1%, McCain 110,177 38.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 26.6% African American, 21.4% Hispanic, 45.5% White
Demographics 18+: 24.2% African American, 20.0% Hispanic, 49.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The orange colored district is located entirely within Orange County, representing all of Orlando and many of its close in suburbs. By representing the center of the Orlando metropolitan area, the district is strongly Democratic and is trending more Democratic as the Hispanic population continues to grow.

Florida's 16th Congressional District Bill Posey (R) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 163,639 45.0%, McCain 200,245 55.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 8.2% African American, 10.3% Hispanic, 76.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 79.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Posey's district becomes safer for him as it loses all of Democratic leaning Osceola and Orange Counties. The district also represents more communities of interest as it combines almost all of Brevard County in one district instead of splitting in half between the 15th and 24th districts. Posey's district also gains part of Republican leaning Seminole County. Posey was safe in a 51% McCain district so he should have no problems winning in a 55% McCain one.

Florida West Coast

Florida's 17th Congressional District Connie Mack IV (R) DarkSlateBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 127,295 40.9%, McCain 183,918 59.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 6.1% African American, 21.5% Hispanic, 69.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.0% African American, 17.9% Hispanic, 74.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

Mack's district was already the most Republican district south of the I-4 corridor at 57% McCain but with the district's changes, it becomes even more Republican at 59% McCain. Mack's district loses all of Charlotte County as well as some Democratic neighborhoods in Fort Myers. The 17th district also gains all of heavily Republican and fast growing Collier County. These changes shift Mack's district further south along Florida's west coast because due to population growth, Florida's west coast is gaining a new district.

Florida's 18th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 131,583 45.8%, McCain 155,823 54.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 8.7% African American, 18.6% Hispanic, 69.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 15.6% Hispanic, 74.3% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district is a combination of the current 13th, 14th and 16th districts. The 18th district combines more inland communities along the Florida west coast such as Fort Myers and Port Charlotte while representing some rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although Rooney does not live in the district, he may decide to run here because the 18th district contains parts of his old district such as Port Charlotte and the rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although the 18th district is less Republican than the neighboring 17th district, McCain's 54% of the vote in the 18th district should be enough to keep it safely Republican.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Florida Fair Redistricting Part I: North Florida

Florida recently passed a fair redistricting inititative and although the republicans in the Florida state legislature control the mapping process, they cannot gerrymander the districts the way they did in 2001. In 2001, the Florida Republicans drew a map aiming to elect 18 Republicans and seven Democrats to Florida's congressional districts, although the 2000 election demonstrated Florida is an evenly divided state. The Republicans also gerrymandered the state legislature so the Democrats could not win control of it and undo the damage the Republicans created for the Democrats. The Republicans were successful by maintaining control of the legislature. Their congressional gerrymander was successful too because even in 2008 when the Democrats gained the most seats in the House since 1992, the Republicans still controlled five more Florida seats than the Democrats did. Democrats undid Republican gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and Ohio but not Florida. In 2010, Republicans won not only the legislature but the Governorship too but Florida's voters passed an amendment that prevented the legislature from gerrymandering for political purposes. The legislature also had to incorporate communities of interest when they redistricted. For example, a district could not contain Orlando and Jacksonville. Republicans may try to draw districts to their advantage while incorporating communities of interest but this map I drew is a real fair map for Florida. This post examines the first 9 districts in Florida, the next post will examine the next 9 districts and the last post will examine the last 9.
Florida's current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=FL



North Florida
Florida's 1st Congressional District: Jeff Miller (R) Blue
Obama 115,041 32.4%, McCain 240,363 67.6%
Old Percentage: McCain 67%, Obama 32%
Demographics: 13.6% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 75.1% White
Demographics 18+: 12.5% African American, 4.5% Hispanic, 77.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the fair redistricting initiative will change the borders of many districts, this one retains similar lines. The 1st loses Washington County to keep population deviation equal but besides this change, the 1st remains the same to its current form. It is still safe for Miller and the 2nd most Republican district in Florida on my map.

Florida's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Southerland (R) Green
Obama 162,690 47.6%, McCain 178,961 52.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 24.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 66.2% White
Demographics 18+: 23.3% African American, 4.8% Hispanic, 68.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

Although McCain won this district, many of these counties such as Liberty and Franklin County vote Democratic at a local level. Allen Boyd (D) represented this district until 2010 and Bill McBride (D) carried it strongly, despite losing by 13 points statewide to Jeb Bush (R). This map helps strengthen the Democrats' chances here by adding part of traditionally Democratic Madison County and removing more conservative counties such as Dixie, Suwanee and Lafayette. Boyd is currently working with Twenty First Century Group, a lobbying firm so he may want to stay with his new job. State Senator Alfred Lawson Jr. though may run under these more favorable lines.

Florida's 3rd Congressional District: Corrine Brown (D) Purple
Obama 172,246 53.0%, McCain 152,527 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 73%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 33.9% African American, 4.2% Asian, 7.7% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 31.3% African American, 4.3% Asian, 7.0% Hispanic, 55.5% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Brown's current district combines African American neighborhoods in Jacksonville, Gainesville and Orlando. Although the Voting Rights Act requires that African American majority districts should be drawn, it did not ask for drawing extremely convoluted districts that combine communities with no common interests. Districts drawn that way are considered "racial gerrymanders" and are unconstitutional. If the 3rd district is considered a racial gerrymander, it will be dismantled. The 3rd district is now centered around the Jacksonville area, making it more Republican but Obama won the district by six points. This creates an opportunity for Republicans but Brown should probably win.

Florida's 4th Congressional District: Ander Crenshaw (R) Red
Obama 110,813 31.3%, McCain 243,349 68.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 37%, McCain 62%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 5.9% Hispanic, 80.6% White
Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 82.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Crenshaw already had a safe district that voted 62% for McCain but the new lines give a 69% McCain district, the most Republican district in Florida under this map. The 4th district loses eastern Jacksonville to the 3rd district and loses the string out to Tallahassee to the 2nd and 6th district. The 4th district now represents the fast growing and heavily Republican Jacksonville suburbs in Clay, Nassau and St. Johns Counties as well as the conservative rural counties of Bradford, Union and Columbia. By combining the communities of interest in the Jacksonville suburbs, the 4th district becomes more compact and more Republican.

Florida's 5th Congressional District Rich Nugent (R) Yellow
Obama 156,627 46.4%, McCain 180,722 53.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 43%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4.1% African American, 10.2% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.6% African American, 8.6% Hispanic, 84.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 5th district was one of the fastest growing districts in Florida so it becomes more compact. It loses the conservative areas near the Villages and retains the fast growing coastal counties of Citrus, Hernando and Pasco. These counties are more swingy than the Villages area (Pasco and Hernando Counties voted for Gore.) McCain won all the counties in this district though so Nugent should not have difficulties winning reelection.

Florida's 6th Congressional District Cliff Stearns (R) Teal
Obama 155,210 47.9%, McCain 169,148 52.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 17.2% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 69.1% White
Demographics 18+: 15.7% African American, 8.1% Hispanic, 72.0% White
Status: Lean Republican

The current 6th district combines Jacksonville suburbs with Gainesville and the Villages Area. I altered the 6th district so it would contain north central rural Florida and its small cities including Gainesville and Ocala. I removed all the Jacksonville suburbs and the Villages Area while adding more of Marion County (Ocala) and some rural counties such as Hamilton and Suwanee which the 2nd and 4th districts formerly represented. I also moved all of Gainesville into the 6th district because it was unfairly split between the 6th and the 3rd, undermining its power to unite and elect a representative. Stearns does not live in the new 6th district, he lives in the new 4th district but I expect him to run here because the 6th district contains most of his old territory. The district voted only 52% for McCain though and Stearns is not familiar with most of the rural voters. Therefore, a blue dog Democrat can win in 2012 by winning over rural voters and benefiting from Gainesville's high turnout.

Florida's 7th Congressional District: John Mica (R) Gray
Obama 178,903 53.0%, McCain 158,960 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 11.7% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 72.6% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 10.0% Hispanic, 76.0% White
Status: Toss Up

Volusia County has a stronger voice now that it is united in the 7th district except for one precinct instead of being split between the 7th, 24th and 3rd districts. The 7th district also becomes more compact as it loses St. Johns County (Jacksonville suburbs) and gains all of Volusia County. The 7th district also loses most of Seminole County but retains Sanford which is a similar community with Deltona in Volusia County. With the loss of conservative St. Johns County and the addition of most of Democratic leaning Volusia County, the 7th district becomes more Democratic. Mica is a popular representative though so it will be difficult to unseat him. In a good Democratic year though, the Democrats should have a shot to unseat Mica.

Florida's 8th Congressional District: Daniel Webster (R) SlateBlue
Obama 143,874 41.5%, McCain 202,758 58.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 11.2% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 9.4% Hispanic, 79.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Currently, the 8th district combines Ocala, Orlando and the retirement communities between them. I altered the lines of the 8th district though so it contained all of Lake and Sumter Counties which contain large retirement communities. For population purposes, I added a small part of Seminole County and kept the 8th district to the left of I-4 as much as possible. Anyway, this district becomes extremely safe for Webster because it voted 59% for McCain.

Tampa Area

Florida's 9th Congressional District: Gus Bilkaris (R) Cyan
Obama 157,295 47.7%, McCain 172,265 52.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 7.1% African American, 14.8% Hispanic, 72.3% White
Demographics 18+: 6.5% African American, 12.8% Hispanic, 75.7% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 9th district undergoes minor changes as it combines the community of interest of suburban areas north and east of Tampa Bay. Although the district voted for McCain by a small margin, the district is more Republican on a local level so Bilkaris should have no trouble winning reelection. The district may become more Democratic though as Hispanics and African Americans move into parts of the 9th district such as Brandon. In 2012 though, Bilkaris should have no difficulties.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Maryland Redistricting 8-0 Democratic

I previously drew a Maryland redistricting map http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2010/12/maryland-redistricting-7-1-d.html with partisan data but this new map is designed to elect an 8-0 Democratic delegation. The last map was designed for a 7-1 Democratic delegation. I previously thought that an 8-0 Democratic map was too risky because it may endanger Democratic incumbents such as Dutch Ruppersberger (D) because his district would add Republican areas to open other districts to Democratic challengers. Currently, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D) and many other Maryland Democrats are pushing for a 7-1 Delegation by either forcing Rep. Andy Harris (R) or Roscoe Bartlett (R) into a Democratic district. I drew this 8-0 Democratic map to demonstrate that Democrats can draw an 8-0 Democratic map in Maryland while protecting their incumbents. The Democrats need to draw an 8-0 map in Maryland because it is one of the few states where Democrats hold the trifecta. Republicans are drawing extremely grotesque gerrymanders in states such as North Carolina, severely under representing the Democratic voters so the Democrats need to counterbalance that with maps in states such as Maryland. The 8-0 map I drew also follows the guidelines of the VRA so two districts will have African American majorities while making sure that no district voted less than 55% Obama. To calculate the district's Democratic percentage though, I am also using the statewide average of all statewide races from 2006 to 2008. Also, the Demographics 18+ means the demographics for voters 18 and older. Anyway, here are the maps:


Maryland's current congressional maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd112_md.pdf


Maryland

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris? (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 170,838 55.2%, McCain 134,240 43.4%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,832 56.6%, Rep 111,834 43.4%
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 62.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 26.7% African American, 64.9% White
Old Presidential Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Status: Lean Democratic

In 2010, Andy Harris won in the 1st district by 13 points against Frank Kratovli (D) but underperformed McCain's 18 point win in the district. Harris does not even live in the new 1st district, he lives in Cockeysville, a Baltimore suburb in Baltimore County. He will probably run here though because this 1st district contains more than half of his current district. The new 1st district though is different from his current district. Instead of representing conservative Baltimore suburban communities, the district crosses the bridge and represents Annapolis and eastern Prince Georges County. These changes increase the African American population from 11% to 27% and the Obama percentage from 40% to 55%. If Kratovli ran in 2012, he would probably win because of high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County and ticket splitting for Kratovli in the Eastern Shore. Even in a midterm year, Kratovli should win because Prince Georges County is trending Democratic extremely quickly. Governor Martin O’Malley won 56% statewide in his reelection campaign but won 88% in Prince Georges County, just behind Obama’s 89% despite underperforming Obama more in the rest of the state. One possibility is that a Prince Georges County candidate would primary him but because 61% of the district's Obama vote was cast outside of the county, Kratovli should win a primary.

Baltimore Area
Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 163,753 57.0%, McCain 117,575 40.9%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 146,162 62.7%, Rep 86,796 37.3%
Demographics: 5.2% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 25.7% African American, 62.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 23.5% African American, 65.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district currently has convoluted lines but they become less convoluted on this map. The 2nd district becomes more centered around Baltimore County as it loses most of its Anne Arundel County portion and gains more of Baltimore County by gaining Pikesville, Perry Hill and Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses Randallstown, a heavily Democratic area so the Obama percentage drops from 60% to 57%. 57% should be enough to protect Ruppersberger who won reelection easily in 2010, a very strong Republican year. Also, the district's average is 62.7% Dem, close to the statewide average of 62.9% Dem. This area also has a reputation for voting strongly Democratic in local races such as House races. Also, the new district has a larger portion of heavily Democratic Baltimore City than the current district does. Ruppersberger should not have much trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 179,121 60.4%, McCain 111,585 37.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 150,898 62.7%, Rep 89,590 37.3%
Demographics: 6.0% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 25.9% African American, 57.6% White
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 24.2% African American, 61.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd district becomes more centered around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties as it loses Pikesville and Randallstown in Baltimore County. It gains more of Columbia and even a few precincts in Montgomery County. These changes boost the Obama percentage up to 60% which should keep Sarbanes safe from a Republican challenge. One issue though is that Sarbanes lives in Towson in Baltimore County and the majority of the district's population is not in Baltimore County so a primary challenge is possible. Sarbanes should win though because he has won primary challenges easily since 2006 when he won the seat. Also, he retains a large portion of Anne Arundel which was his best county in the competitive 2006 primary. In that primary, Sarbanes did not win Baltimore County so losing part of it may actually help him in the primary.

Washington Suburbs

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 236,034 77.3%, McCain 66,083 21.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 178,705 75.1%, Rep 59,312 24.9%
Demographics: 5.7% Asian, 13.0% Hispanic, 50.4% African American, 28.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.8% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 50.3% African American, 30.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district stays strongly Democratic but becomes more Republican as it loses part of central Prince Georges County and most of its Montgomery County portion. The 4th district does gain part of southwest Prince Georges County around Fort Washington, a few precincts in Democratic leaning Charles County, swing parts of Howard County and some conservative precincts in Carroll County. I added the Howard and Carroll County precincts to this district in order to protect the 3rd, 7th and 8th districts from becoming susceptible to a serious Republican challenge. This district also remains majority African American so it follows the VRA and the 28% white percentage should not be enough for a primary challenge against Edwards. The 4th district also gains more precincts around her home, Fort Washington.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 194,351 58.6%, McCain 132,523 40.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 162,906 60.9%, Rep 104,727 39.1%
Demographics: 7.8% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Hispanic, 27.3% African American, 60.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes more Republican as it gains the Severna Park area formerly in the 1st district. The 5th district also loses part of the heavily Democratic College Park and Fort Washington areas but gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Forestville. A string of heavily Democratic precincts in Prince Georges County connects the northern and southern part of the districts. The loss of eastern Prince Georges County to make the 1st district more Democratic brings the Obama percentage in the district down to 58.6%. Hoyer should have no worries though because he is entrenched with the Republican voters in St. Mary's and Calvert Counties and the district is trending Democratic with Charles County having African Americans move in from Prince Georges County.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 181,492 60.6%, McCain 113,197 37.8%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 156,046 62.0%, Rep 95,700 38.0%
Demographics: 7.4% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic, 11.5% African American, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5 Asian, 10.7% Hispanic, 11.6% African American, 68.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district (formerly numbered the 8th) becomes more Republican as Montgomery County's portion of the district is reduced to 59% and the other 41% is Republican counties in western Maryland such as Washington and Alleghany. The 8th district retains heavily Democratic areas in Montgomery County though including Silver Spring, Bethesda and Wheaton. Although the Obama percentage in this district drops to 60.6%, Van Hollen should have no trouble winning in this district due to its Democratic percentage and his fundraising ability. Also, the district is trending Democratic as Democrats continue to move into Montgomery County. Connie Morella (R) who represented part of Montgomery County in the House until 2002 is now 80 years old so she will probably not run here.

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 214,229 67.2%, McCain 99,716 31.3%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 166,639 65.3%, Rep 88,700 34.7%
Demographics: 50.8% African American, 41.8% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Howard County and gains conservative Baltimore exurbs in Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Although these areas are heavily Republican, the 7th district retains heavily Democratic precincts in Baltimore City and west Baltimore County, easily offsetting the Republican votes. The district also retains its VRA protection with a majority African American 18+ population. Cummings should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District (formerly numbered the 6th) Roscoe Bartlett (R)Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 181,059 59.4%, McCain 118,965 39.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,341 59.0%, Rep 101,087 41.0%
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 13.2% Hispanic, 12.1% African American, 60.3% White
Demographics18+: 11.5% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic,11.4% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Likely Democratic if Bartlett runs, Safe Democratic if Bartlett does not run

Great grandfather and 85 year old Bartlett may decide to retire now that his district’s McCain percentage dropped from 58% to 39%. Although Bartlett is entrenched in his district, he is unfamiliar with the voters in Montgomery County which has a fast growing minority population. The district’s new lines may convince Bartlett to retire. A Democrat should win this district by winning high margins in Montgomery County. They should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and Democratic trending Frederick County.