My last
analysis of the California Congressional Districts was in May before the top
two primary elections which will determine the two candidates who will face
each other in the congressional elections in November 6th, 2012. The Republican
turnout in these primaries was higher, mostly because it seemed that there were
more competitive primaries on the Republican side, especially in Southern
California. Also, the Los Angeles area Democrats did not turn out strongly
because there were few competitive primaries in the heavily Democratic districts
there such as CA-37 but Republicans had more competitive primaries in
conservative districts such as CA-08. Another reason for the low Democratic
turnout in Southern California is that many of the voters there are sporadic
voters and tend to vote in high turnout elections such as the 2008
Presidential election or the 2010 Gubernatorial election. Democratic turnout
though was high in Northern California where Marin County for example voted 76%
Democratic while statewide the congressional races voted 51% Democratic and in
2008, Obama won 78% of the vote in Marin while winning 61% statewide. Low
turnout for the Democrats caused problems such as CA-31 which is a swing
districts but the top two vote getters were Republicans, Redlands Mayor Pete
Aguilar (D) lost by 2 points there but in 2014, this seat will be a prime
pickup opportunity. The primary elections though did shed some light on other
competitive races, such as CA-52 which usually leans Republican locally but the
primary results suggest it may lean more Democratic.
Anyway,
this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially
competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to
be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example.
Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html
Here is my map of the competitive districts
This map is courtesy of 270towin where I changed the district colors.
CA-03
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.)
The
competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a
majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout
from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead
of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup
but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural
issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his
opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it
should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district
which is heavily Democratic. He seems to be pulling away pretty strongly here.
Likely
Democratic
CA-07
This race
should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle.
It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but
have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State
Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the
only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger
Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too
which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in
the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the
general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so
Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll
from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4
higher than Lungren’s.
Tossup
CA-08
Gregg
Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely
red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There
have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the
vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though
seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there
have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading.
Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.
Lean Cook
CA-09
Rep. Jerry
McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the
primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does,
especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has
been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to
fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s
and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate
views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010
in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be
able to survive 2012.
Lean
Democratic
CA-10
This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California
means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in
down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R)
who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found
a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received
strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a
strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue
but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing
about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become
an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing
Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading
Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not
be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup
from Lean Republican.
Tossup
CA-15
Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress
since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly
incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with
Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate
challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent
gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas
Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and
San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark
has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the
inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so
Swalwell has room to grow.
Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.
CA-21
This race
is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has
underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the
primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao
should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic
turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during
the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too.
Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much
lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher
in the general which should help Hernandez. If it rises really strongly, then
Hernandez should have a shot but for now, the race is Lean Republican.
Lean Republican
CA-24
Rep. Lois
Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less
than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a
shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did
in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so
he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps
has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar
lines and was less Democratic.
Lean
Democratic
CA-26
This race
is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state.
Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for
the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi
Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the
primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against
Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right
to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are
swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the
primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well. A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race
but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too
conservative for the district.
Tossup/Tilt Democratic
CA-30
The
battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman
(D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the
advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high
profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7
million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for
Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s
32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes
Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa
(R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt
Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.
Lean
Sherman
CA-31
Democrats
had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but
other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the
top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and
while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two
Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R)
who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this
56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced
a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has
support of the national Republicans as well as more money.
Lean
Miller
CA-36
Mary Bono
Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close
elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in
Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong
candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic
to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be
leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. A recent poll
showed her ahead by only 3 so if there is a Democratic mini wave; this will be
one of the seats that shifts enough for us to win. Also, Bono Mack recently
referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet,” which
should cost her some votes. I am going to keep this race at lean Republican for
now but I am very tempted to move this to tossup if I see another poll showing
a close race.
Lean
Republican
CA-41
This
district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic
population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John
Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a
strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a
similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not
play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district
(the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the
district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.
Lean
Democratic
CA-44
Rep.
Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district.
Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the
new 44th, her former city council district covered a large part of
the 44th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson
though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive
campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68%
Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic
community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in
trouble.
Safe Hahn
CA-47
State
Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R).
This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because
Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up
his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should
have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling
out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.
Likely
Democratic
CA-52
This is
another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a
moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting
increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters
(D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council
President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking
Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded
pensions. No polls have been released on this race but due to the district’s
Democratic lean and Peters’s strong campaign skills, Peters has a slight
advantage but not enough to move it out of tossup. Also, Peters received the
endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former
Republican.
Tossup
4 comments:
I see the Democrats gaining at least three seats: CA 26 (coastal Ventura), CA 41 (western Riverside), and CA 47 (Long Beach and Garden Grove), all as a consequence of the commission producing a Democratic leaning map. I don't see them losing any seats.
I'm not sure about CA 10 (Stanislaus County) and CA 52 (north San Diego). CA-10 should be Republican leaning but the Democrats came up with an excellent candidate, a pick-up there will cancel out their own goal with CA 31 (San Bernardino). CA-52 is Democratic leaning, but Bilbray has won tough races in the past. The Democrats will get it if Obama winds up running up a large margin against Romney.
If there is an Obama wave, the Democrats will wind up with half a dozen seats, the five listed above and one more race will break for them somewhere.
Also, excellent analysis as usual. I particularly liked the links to the district maps and demographic info, the maps are particularly useful as the commission scrambled the numbering and I haven't memorized which district is where.
Yep, I am a bit worried about CA-52 because Bilbray definitely has won tough races before. We have a strong candidate and the district is more Democratic so hopefully Peters can win but we will see.
Also, I'm glad you liked the map links. They really give all the political and demographic info for each district.
Its funny, I was writing a post for Ricochet from the Republican POV when I came across your excellent post. We actually agree on all but 1 or 2 of the races. I've got GOP keeping 7, 10, 26, 36, & 52 tho just barely in the case of 7, 36 and 52. We pick up 21 and 41, tho both districts should belong to you Dems along with 31 of course. Dems keep 3,9,16,24,33 and 47. In the R on Rs, Miller loses to Dutton who will be tough to beat in 14 while Cook wins in 8. In D on D action, Swalwell beats Stark, Sherman beats Berman, and its 50/50 with Baca/Bocanegra.
My one real upset is CA-41. Like 21, and 31, and so many of the other districts, this was gerrymandered to be won by a not too liberal hispanic Democrat. But naturally, we have in Takano an openly gay, Japanese American, "progressive". Tavaglione is a compromising type of Republican who has repped city of Riverside as County Supervisor, has the endorsement of the Press-Enterprise and lots of other local support. Plus, Takano's 42-38 poll if anything makes me thing this district goes Repub. Clearly 21,31,and 41 will be on the Dem hit list come 14 but they'll all be tough in an off year.
My prediction- R+2 in November.
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