Showing posts with label House races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label House races. Show all posts

Monday, November 5, 2012

My Last California Congressional District Rankings

These are my last rankings before the Presidential election on California's Congressional Districts.


After the California Redistricting Commission shuffled around all the California Congressional District lines, they created opportunities for Democrats in seats such as CA-07, CA-10, CA-26, CA-36 and CA-52. The Democrats are looking to gain somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 seats in California. Although they are not expected to gain back the House, they are expected to perform well in California, making takeover in 2014 a much easier task. 

Anyway, this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example. 

Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html


CA-03
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.) 
The competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district which is heavily Democratic. Also, Republican PACs have been pulling out of this district, I am not worried about Garamendi. 
Likely Democratic

CA-07
This race should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle. It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4 higher than Lungren’s.
Tossup

CA-08
Gregg Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading. Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.
Lean Cook

CA-09
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does, especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010 in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be able to survive 2012. Also, the registration advantage for the Democrats is strong here and Obama is expected to do well in this district so that should help McNerney.
Lean Democratic

CA-10
This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup from Lean Republican. Republicans may still have a slight advantage here due to the district's demographics but it is still close. 
Tossup

CA-15
Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with
Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so Swalwell has room to grow.
Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.

CA-21
This race is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too. Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher in the general which should help Hernandez. However, Washington folks do not Hernandez's chances. There was one article that was discussing how Jose Hernandez was a great candidate while criticizing John Hernandez. Hispanic turnout could make it close but Democrats needed a better candidate here. 
Lean Republican

CA-24
Rep. Lois Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar lines and was less Democratic. I used to live in Santa Barbara actually and it was much more Republican in the early 2000s when I lived there. The district is interesting with liberal Santa Barbara on the coast but the inland areas are very conservative and resemble the Central Valley in a way. Also, Maldonado is from Inland SB County which will help him but as long as Democratic turnout is high, Capps should win. 
Lean Democratic

CA-26
This race is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well.  A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too conservative for the district. Also, Brownley has been receiving endorsements such as from the LA Times, she seems to have the wind at her back in this district.
Tilt Democratic

CA-30
The battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7 million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s 32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.
Lean Sherman

CA-31
Democrats had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R) who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this 56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has support of the national Republicans as well as more money.
Lean Miller

CA-36
Mary Bono Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. She also won tough races in the 2000s in a 52-47 Obama district but she had conservative Murrietta in her district which anchored her (Murrietta is not in her new district.) Also, Bono Mack recently referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet," and more a few more gaffes.  The DCCC has been spending heavily here, hitting Bono Mack for her votes on the Ryan budget which would end Medicare as we know it. Ruiz though made a small gaffe by saying he supported Leonard Peltier when he attended a pro Native American rights rally. However, Ruiz recovered pretty easily and Bono Mack's gaffes outweigh his. A Ruiz internal showed Ruiz leading by 6. I am going to place this race at Tossup for now although I believe Ruiz definitely has an advantage.
Tossup

CA-41
This district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district (the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.
Lean Democratic

CA-44
Rep. Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district. Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the new 44th, her former city council district covered a large part of the 44th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68% Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in trouble.
Safe Hahn

CA-47
State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R). This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.
Likely Democratic

CA-52
This is another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters (D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded pensions. Also, Peters received the endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former Republican. As for polling, it has been all over the map with Bilbray internals showing Bilbray leading and Peters internals showing Peters leading. I believe that Peters should win in the end due to the Democratic overperformance here in the June primaries but this race is still very close. 
Tilt Democratic

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Competitive California Congressional Districts



My last analysis of the California Congressional Districts was in May before the top two primary elections which will determine the two candidates who will face each other in the congressional elections in November 6th, 2012. The Republican turnout in these primaries was higher, mostly because it seemed that there were more competitive primaries on the Republican side, especially in Southern California. Also, the Los Angeles area Democrats did not turn out strongly because there were few competitive primaries in the heavily Democratic districts there such as CA-37 but Republicans had more competitive primaries in conservative districts such as CA-08. Another reason for the low Democratic turnout in Southern California is that many of the voters there are sporadic voters and tend to vote in high turnout elections such as the 2008 Presidential election or the 2010 Gubernatorial election. Democratic turnout though was high in Northern California where Marin County for example voted 76% Democratic while statewide the congressional races voted 51% Democratic and in 2008, Obama won 78% of the vote in Marin while winning 61% statewide. Low turnout for the Democrats caused problems such as CA-31 which is a swing districts but the top two vote getters were Republicans, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) lost by 2 points there but in 2014, this seat will be a prime pickup opportunity. The primary elections though did shed some light on other competitive races, such as CA-52 which usually leans Republican locally but the primary results suggest it may lean more Democratic.

Anyway, this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example. 

Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html

Here is my map of the competitive districts





This map is courtesy of 270towin where I changed the district colors. 


CA-03
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.) 
The competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district which is heavily Democratic. He seems to be pulling away pretty strongly here.
Likely Democratic

CA-07
This race should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle. It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4 higher than Lungren’s.
Tossup

CA-08
Gregg Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading. Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.
Lean Cook

CA-09
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does, especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010 in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be able to survive 2012.
Lean Democratic

CA-10
This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup from Lean Republican.
Tossup

CA-15
Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with
Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so Swalwell has room to grow.
Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.

CA-21
This race is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too. Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher in the general which should help Hernandez. If it rises really strongly, then Hernandez should have a shot but for now, the race is Lean Republican.
Lean Republican

CA-24
Rep. Lois Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar lines and was less Democratic.
Lean Democratic

CA-26
This race is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well.  A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too conservative for the district.
Tossup/Tilt Democratic

CA-30
The battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7 million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s 32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.
Lean Sherman

CA-31
Democrats had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R) who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this 56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has support of the national Republicans as well as more money.
Lean Miller

CA-36
Mary Bono Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. A recent poll showed her ahead by only 3 so if there is a Democratic mini wave; this will be one of the seats that shifts enough for us to win. Also, Bono Mack recently referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet,” which should cost her some votes. I am going to keep this race at lean Republican for now but I am very tempted to move this to tossup if I see another poll showing a close race.
Lean Republican

CA-41
This district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district (the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.
Lean Democratic

CA-44
Rep. Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district. Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the new 44th, her former city council district covered a large part of the 44th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68% Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in trouble.
Safe Hahn

CA-47
State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R). This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.
Likely Democratic

CA-52
This is another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters (D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded pensions. No polls have been released on this race but due to the district’s Democratic lean and Peters’s strong campaign skills, Peters has a slight advantage but not enough to move it out of tossup. Also, Peters received the endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former Republican.
Tossup

Monday, September 20, 2010

California U.S House Rankings

 As Michael Barone put it, "Between 1995 and 2005, politics was trench warfare where each side tried to have stronger enthusiasm. Now we are in an open field." Barone is correct because of all the voter shifts right now. 1995 to 2005 were years with 50-50 divides (except for Clinton's win in 1996 where although he had 49% of the vote, he probably would have received a few more percentage points had Ross Perot not run.) The open field politics are clearly showing themselves now with the independents running to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, giving Democrats a 15 seat Senate pickup, a 54 seat House pickup and the Presidency. Unfortunately, the open field politics did not stop when the Democrats had the independents. The Republicans are now gaining momentum and it is not just because of lethargic Democrats. Many independents are shifting and the anti status quo view is showing itself in primaries. Incumbents in both parties like Arlen Specter (D) in Pennsylvania and Bob Bennett (R) in Utah are losing their primaries. Republicans are looking to flip more than 40 house seats, taking the House from the Democrats.

One place you may expect to see all the upheaval is California. The statewide offices are definitely contested where fired HP CEO Carly Fiorina hopes to end Barbara Boxer's (D) hard work in the Senate. Also, Republicans are contesting the Lieutenant Governorship and the Attorney General spot. One place though in California where there is not much upheaval is the U.S House districts in California. There are a few slightly competitive races like CA-45 where Mary Bono (R) faces the openly gay Palm Springs mayor. In a Democratic year, the Democrats would have more opportunities. Most of the Democrats now are in safe districts so the Republicans cannot win those seats. An exception is CA-11 where Jerry McNerney (D) won in 2006 against corrupt corporate puppet Richard Pombo (R). The district is growing more Democratic but Republicans are seeing an opportunity in Mormon David Harmer (R) who ran unsucessfully in 2009 for CA-10 against John Garamendi (D). Here are the rankings:

32 Safe D
1 Likely D
0 Lean D
1 Tossup
2 Lean R
3 Likely R
14 Safe R

Link for map of California's congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=CA


CA-1 Mike Thompson (D) Safe D
Great representative in a great district. What else can I say?

CA-2 Wally Herger (R) Likely R
Saying someone is a great American for calling himself, "A right wing terrorist," really goes against the tea party idea of respecting the country and the Constitution. Still, this district is too conservative and this is a Republican year.

CA-3 Dan Lungren (R) Lean R
Lungren won by 5 points last year so Democrats are now actively contesting this race. Although Democrats have a strong candidate, this is the wrong year and Obama did only win this district by 2 points. Although it is trending Democratic, if Lungren cannot be knocked off in a Democratic year, when can he lose?

CA-4 Tom McClintock (R) Solid R
Although he is a carpetbagger and extreme conservative, enough voters here do not mind.

CA-5 Doris Matsui (D) Safe D
One of the only safe places for Democrats in the Central Valley

CA-6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Safe D
My home district!

CA-7 George Miller (D) Safe D
Takes all the really Democratic areas in Contra Costa/Solano Counties.

CA-8 Nancy Pelosi (D) Safe D
No Republican wins here. The contest is the primary if Pelosi retires next year.

CA-9 Barbara Lee (D) Safe D
Most Democratic district in California and most liberal in the country.

CA-10 John Garamendi (D) Safe D
Won 53% of the vote in a 65% Obama district in 2009. David Harmer (R), the challenger from last year is not running here again. Garamendi should be fine.

CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D) Toss Up/Tilt Democratic
Democrats have been moving into this district from the Bay Area and they helped topple corrupt Richard Pombo (R) in 2006. McNerney won again by 10 points in 2008, not the best margin in a Democratic year. David Harmer (R) is now moving into the 11th to run there. This is the right year for Republicans and Harmer also lives in the San Ramon Valley, cutting away McNerney's advantage there. This is one of the races that will decide control of the House.

CA-12 Jackie Speier (D) Safe D
Great congresswoman in a great district.

CA-13 Pete Stark (D) Safe D
Not much else to say

CA-14 Anna Eshoo (D) Safe D
Eshoo is a great congresswoman and she is not leaving soon!

CA-15 Mike Honda (D) Safe D
Tom Campbell's (R) old district but its Republican tradition is gone.

CA-16 Zoe Lofgren (D) Safe D
Another easy win for the Democrats.

CA-17 Sam Farr (D) Safe D
The district with Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties is not changing hands.

CA-18 Dennis Cardoza (D) Likely D
This is Gary Condit's (D) old district. Condit is famous for having an affair in 2001. Cardoza has been safe the last few elections but Republicans found Mike Berryhill (R) from the Turlock Irrigation Board. Although this is a Republican year, the district's large Hispanic population makes this district too Democratic.

CA-19 OPEN George Radanovich (R) Solid R
There was a big primary here on the Republican side with corrupt former CA-11 congressman Richard Pombo (R) losing to Jeff Denham (R) from California's 12th State Senate district. Despite McCain only winning 52% of the vote here, it should be no contest in the general election.

CA-20 Jim Costa (D) Likely D
This is another district with a strong Republican challenger but due to its even larger Hispanic population than the 18th, Costa should win.

CA-21 Devin Nunes (R) Safe R
Pluarity Hispanic but still a safe Republican district.

CA-22 Kevin McCarthy (R) Safe R
Bakersfield's district and the most Republican district in California. No surprise.

CA-23 Lois Capps (D) Safe D
Capps is a great congresswoman in a great district. What can beat the California coast? Her district is safe.

CA-24 Elton Gallegy (R) Safe R
Once he retires, this district will have a big fight but for now, Gallegy has a hold on it.

CA-25 Buck McKeon (R) Safe R
Obama won 50% of the vote here but until McKeon retires, this district is staying Republican.

CA-26 David Dreier (R) Solid R
The district is trending Democratic quickly but Dreier is moderate and entrenched.

CA-27 Brad Sherman (D) Solid D
The San Fernando Valley used to be marginal but not anymore.

CA-28 Howard Berman (D) Solid D
Another heavily Democratic district

CA-29 Adam Schiff (D) Solid D
Pasadena used to be Republican but it is now Democratic.

CA-30 Henry Waxman (D) Solid D
Right in Westside LA, Waxman is not going anywhere.

CA-31 Xavier Beccara (D) Solid D
Solidly Democratic.

CA-32 Judy Chu (D) Solid D
Chu should worry about a Hispanic primary challenger but not a Republican.

CA-33 OPEN Diane Watson (D) Solid D
Karen Bass (D) should be elected here easily.

CA-34 Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Solid D
The first Hispanic congresswoman will have no trouble.

CA-35 Maxine Waters (D) Solid D
Waters may have ethical problems but this is one of the most Democratic districts in the country.

CA-36 Jane Harman (D) Safe D
Despite her moderate views, Harman's money will keep away any primary challenge.

CA-37 Laura Richardson (D) Safe D
No problems here for Richardson

CA-38 Grace Napolitano (D) Safe D
Another safe Democratic district.

CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) Safe D
This district used to be marginal but it is now safely Democratic.

CA-40 Ed Royce (R) Safe R
Although McCain barely won here, Royce is still safe.

CA-41 Jerry Lewis (R) Safe R
Longtime Representative Lewis is going nowhere.

CA-42 Gary Miller (R) Safe R
The district may be competitive in the future but it is Republican now.

CA-43 Joe Baca (D) Safe D
If you were wondering why there are so many Republican districts are in the Inland Empire, it is because the Democrats are here.

CA-44 Ken Calvert (R) Likely R
Calvert's district with Riverside in it is trending Democratic with Obama winning by 2 points after a Kerry loss of 19 points in 2004. In 2008, Calvert was caught off guard and nearly lost to Bill Hedrick (D). Hedrick is back again but he has had problems raising money and Calvert is ready for a challenge. Also, this is the wrong year for Hedrick but in 2012, Democrats will have a better shot.

CA-45 Mary Bono Mack (R) Lean R
Mack was elected in 2002 after her husband Sonny Bono (R) passed away. She has kept a somewhat moderate voting record and has been reelected easily. Some factors are making it harder for her though because the district is trending Democratic quickly with areas like Palm Springs and Moreno Valley. The openly gay mayor of Palm Springs, Steve Pougnet is challenging her. Although he is a strong candidate, this is the wrong year.

CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) Safe R
Another SoCal district trending Democratic but still strong for Rohrabacher.

CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) Likely D
Sanchez has been reelected easily in the past but she is facing Van Tran (R), a Vietnamese State Assemblyman. Although he is popular with the Vietnamese community, Sanchez is also popular with them and is expected to do well with the district's large Hispanic population. Although this is a Republican year and Bush won this district by one point, the district is still too Democratic for Van Tran.

CA-48 John Campbell (R) Safe R
Yes, Irvine is in this district but the rest of the district is Republican.

CA-49 Darrell Issa (R) Safe R
One of the more Republican district in SoCal.

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) Likely R
Francine Busby (D), two time challenger for this seat is running again. Bilbray (R) beat her in a 2006 special election 49%-46% and general election in a Democratic year 53%-43%. In this Republican year, it is even more difficult for Busby.

CA-51 Bob Filner (D) Safe D
So this is where many of the San Diego Democrats live.

CA-52 Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) Safe R
Yes, this is the son of Duncan Hunter (R) who was here since 1980.

CA-53 Susan Davis (D) Safe D
Davis beat Bilbray in 2000 but her district is too Democratic now for a successful Republican challenge.

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