Monday, November 5, 2012

My Last California Congressional District Rankings

These are my last rankings before the Presidential election on California's Congressional Districts.


After the California Redistricting Commission shuffled around all the California Congressional District lines, they created opportunities for Democrats in seats such as CA-07, CA-10, CA-26, CA-36 and CA-52. The Democrats are looking to gain somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 seats in California. Although they are not expected to gain back the House, they are expected to perform well in California, making takeover in 2014 a much easier task. 

Anyway, this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example. 

Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html


CA-03
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.) 
The competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district which is heavily Democratic. Also, Republican PACs have been pulling out of this district, I am not worried about Garamendi. 
Likely Democratic

CA-07
This race should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle. It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4 higher than Lungren’s.
Tossup

CA-08
Gregg Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading. Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.
Lean Cook

CA-09
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does, especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010 in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be able to survive 2012. Also, the registration advantage for the Democrats is strong here and Obama is expected to do well in this district so that should help McNerney.
Lean Democratic

CA-10
This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup from Lean Republican. Republicans may still have a slight advantage here due to the district's demographics but it is still close. 
Tossup

CA-15
Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with
Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so Swalwell has room to grow.
Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.

CA-21
This race is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too. Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher in the general which should help Hernandez. However, Washington folks do not Hernandez's chances. There was one article that was discussing how Jose Hernandez was a great candidate while criticizing John Hernandez. Hispanic turnout could make it close but Democrats needed a better candidate here. 
Lean Republican

CA-24
Rep. Lois Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar lines and was less Democratic. I used to live in Santa Barbara actually and it was much more Republican in the early 2000s when I lived there. The district is interesting with liberal Santa Barbara on the coast but the inland areas are very conservative and resemble the Central Valley in a way. Also, Maldonado is from Inland SB County which will help him but as long as Democratic turnout is high, Capps should win. 
Lean Democratic

CA-26
This race is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well.  A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too conservative for the district. Also, Brownley has been receiving endorsements such as from the LA Times, she seems to have the wind at her back in this district.
Tilt Democratic

CA-30
The battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7 million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s 32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.
Lean Sherman

CA-31
Democrats had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R) who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this 56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has support of the national Republicans as well as more money.
Lean Miller

CA-36
Mary Bono Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. She also won tough races in the 2000s in a 52-47 Obama district but she had conservative Murrietta in her district which anchored her (Murrietta is not in her new district.) Also, Bono Mack recently referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet," and more a few more gaffes.  The DCCC has been spending heavily here, hitting Bono Mack for her votes on the Ryan budget which would end Medicare as we know it. Ruiz though made a small gaffe by saying he supported Leonard Peltier when he attended a pro Native American rights rally. However, Ruiz recovered pretty easily and Bono Mack's gaffes outweigh his. A Ruiz internal showed Ruiz leading by 6. I am going to place this race at Tossup for now although I believe Ruiz definitely has an advantage.
Tossup

CA-41
This district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district (the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.
Lean Democratic

CA-44
Rep. Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district. Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the new 44th, her former city council district covered a large part of the 44th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68% Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in trouble.
Safe Hahn

CA-47
State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R). This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.
Likely Democratic

CA-52
This is another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters (D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded pensions. Also, Peters received the endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former Republican. As for polling, it has been all over the map with Bilbray internals showing Bilbray leading and Peters internals showing Peters leading. I believe that Peters should win in the end due to the Democratic overperformance here in the June primaries but this race is still very close. 
Tilt Democratic

4 comments:

Ed said...

Well its election day, but we won't be getting results from California until around midnight EST.

I'm going to predict Democratic gains in CA 26 (coastal Ventura), CA 41 (Riverside and Moreno Valley), and CA 47 (Long Beach and Garden Grove). These count as gains because the earlier versions of these districts were Republican and the boundary commission made them 56% Obama districts, though its hard to identify the earlier analog to CA 47, a special gift to the Democrats by the mapmakers.

Because Obama's popular vote percentage in 2008 was the highest for a Democratic presidential candidate in forty-four years, I usually assume that a 51% Obama district has a slight Republican lean. I also think that incumbent Congressmen who have run in tough races recently are difficult to unseat. For these reasons I think Lungren, Bono Mack, and Bilbray will hold on, though these are all close calls.

Its interesting that the new California electoral system has created situations where a Democratic candidate has adopted the strategy of appealing to Republican voters in one district, and a Republican candidate is trying to appeal to Democratic voters in another district, where the runoff featured candidates from the same party.

Alibguy said...

I agree about CA-26, CA-41 and CA-47 but I disagree on CA-7 and CA-36. Bera ran a good race in 2010, despite the district being more Republican and despite 2010 being a Republican year. Also, in 2010 he was overlooked but now he has gotten good coverage.

CA-36, I think we can beat Bono Mack because she has won before but she was more moderate then and now she keeps making gaffes. It's still a real tossup though.

Ed said...

We have no idea right now if I was right, since as of this morning the races for the seats of Lungren, Bono Mack, and Bilbray are essentially tied. Democrats gained CA 41 and CA 47 and will probably pick up CA 26 once all the votes are in.

Alibguy said...

Looks like we ended up getting CA-26 and CA-36. I had a good feeling about CA-26 before the election but I was surprised about CA-36. I thought Ruiz would get close but just not enough. I hope we get CA-7 and CA-52 as well, the Democrats are leading there right now.