Why the Republicans are not the dominant party

In 2004, all the pundits said that the Democrats were toast. They said that the Democrats might not be able to have a presidential candidate who could win if that candidate could not bridge the urban and rural divide. Well actually, Bush won because voters viewed family values as more important than the economy. Well now, someone could say the only reason Obama won is that voters viewed the economy as more important than values. Unfortunately, that is WRONG! Obama did not only win in the rust belt, he won in states in the West and in the Upper South. Also, Democrats did well at a Congressional level, kicking the last Republican Congressman out of New England and reducing the amount of Congressman in New York State down to three. Is all this sucess happening because of an unpopular Republican president? Mostly but there is another reason.
The Republicans have been tied to the religious Conservatives. McCain did worse than Bush everywhere except places in the South where the population was almost completely poor whites. In places up north, Obama improved a bit among that group except in Pennsylvania, he lost ground but only a few points. In Arkansas, McCain improved on Bush's percentage in almost every county. This is good for Republicans in the South but the problem is that it is only in the South. Most of the Republican Senators and leadership is in the South. As the Republicans continue to attach themselves to the South, they lose the West which used to be heavily Republican. Obama came within three points of winning Montana which in 2004, voted for Bush by 20 points. To see how this started, we should go back and look at the 80's.
In the 1980's, it was the decade of Reagan's not so silent anymore majority. Not only was he a popular president, he won everywhere against Mondale except for big northern central cities, a few rural counties in the south, some heavily Hispanic counties in the west, San Francisco and that was mainly it. In 1988, George H. W. Bush was able to win big states such as Illinois and Pennsylvania not because he carried about every rural county. He won with the economic conservatives in the suburbs. In Pennsylvania, Dukakis actually won the western part of the state but lost the eastern part because he could not win the suburbs. In the 1990's, Clinton won in the South partly because he was from there and the Democrats were not quite viewed as the party of the North. In 2000, Gore lost because of the Supreme Court's decision and he did well in some rural parts of the South, he could not win any states there. The Republicans were not yet tied to the Christian Conservatives so they were able to win Ohio and other states with large suburbs because the Gore did not do well enough in the urban areas. The reason of this trend in urban areas toward the Democrats is that voters there are usually not strong belief Christians and disagree with them on social issues. In 2004, Kerry did well in the urban areas but not ones in the South. Being unable to carry almost anything outside of a northern city or suburb cost him the election along with the values as I explained earlier.
Republicans truly are the party of the South. The only places they picked up house seats except for Kansas was in the South. When the Democrats were the party of the South in the 1920's, the only states they won were in the South. It was because the South is so different from the rest of the country. The Republicans became the party of the South because they became the party of religion. It seemed that they believed the only way to get rid of the Democrats was to win in their stronghold. The Republicans lost because they were the party of religion. As they get more conservative, they will win less votes and eventually start losing Montana and maybe even the Dakotas. The West has some religion but it is more of a libertarian place based on small government, not on religion. Even in Utah, Obama did much better than Kerry did. The only way for Republicans to win is if the Democrats do a horrible job or they start becoming more moderate. They could field moderate candidates but they have to shake off the Christian Conservatives. John McCain could not because he was forced to pick Palin. That resulted in him losing Florida because undecided voters in Palm Beach and Broward Counties did not want to vote for a Christian Conservative with no experience.
There is a hole Republicans could attack. We understand why Obama picked Rick Warren to speak at his inaugaration. He wanted to please everyone but there is this old saying that if you try to please everyone, you end up pleasing no one. Not only did it get gays angry, the Rick Warren pick may alienate some northern economic Conservatives who voted for Barack Obama because of social issues.
Even though the Republicans tried to reach out to Hispanic evangelicals, it did not work because Republicans are too Conservative on immigration. Although Obama is a Liberal, he does not alienate voters but the Conservative Republicans do. Yes, the Republicans have a long road ahead of them. They are no longer the party of just low taxes and small government. They are the party of the South and the evangelicals.
Please feel free to comment on this post.

Georgia Senate Runoff

Some of us political junkies have not much to watch in terms of horse races. We can look at the transistion and we will post something about that soon but there is something we do not see talked about much. The Democrat have 58 seats in the Senate and to at least get to 59, they need to pick up the seat in Georgia. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss received just short of 50% of the vote in the November 4th election against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss has been in Congress for a long time but was elected to the Senate in 2002 with 53% of the vote. He beat incumbent Max Cleland who lost body parts in Vietnam. Chambliss's campaign was that Cleland was not patriotic. Anyway, he still has to explain to us how you are unpatriotic if you go to war to serve your country and lose body parts in the process. That sounds very patriotic to us but what do you have to do to reach Chambliss's standards?
Now, we are going to explain this race a little bit. A reason that Martin got 47% of the vote is mainly because of high African American turnout which was 30% of the vote in Georgia, up from 25% in 2004. With Obama not on the ticket, it will harder to generate such a high percentage of African American voters. Also, this election will come down to turnout. People think that the turnout on December 2nd will be half as high as it was on November 4th. Also, early voting numbers show only 23% of early voters being African American which is alot lower than the 35% of early voters for November 4th being African American. In recent years especially in 2002, Republicans have won because of high turnout in counties that are near Atlanta but not in the core. The main ones are Forsyth, Coweta, Hall, Cherokee, Gwinnent and Cobb. The last two mentioned voted for McCain by much smaller margins than for Bush mostly because the areas are well educated and the turnout of African Americans was high. Chambliss won by doing well in those counties but times are changing and three of the conservative outer Atlanta counties, Rockdale, Newton and Douglas were won by Obama and Martin even though Bush won them easily in 2004. The reason for that is they are experiencing an in migration of African Americans. If Martin fails to get the turnout he needs in the Atlanta area, he must try to do well in the rural area. Although Obama did better than Martin in the Atlanta core area, Martin did better than Obama in the rural part of the state because he got a larger percentage of white voters to support him than Obama. It is important for Martin to win big in the counties containing Athens, Columbus, Augusta, Macon, Albany and Savannah and keep Republican margins in the suburbs low. Then Martin must do well in the central part of the rural state which has alot of African Americans.
Alot of prominent Republicans and Democrats such as Mitt Rommney and Al Gore have come to Georgia to campaign but Obama has not. Obama coming to Georgia could sway a few points and bring out more African Americans. He has a radio ad but it is not enough. He probably does not want to be tainted if Martin loses and Obama campaigned for him. Recent polls show Chambliss ahead by a few points but upsets can happen. In Texas, Republican Henry Bonilla was expected to keep his seat against Democrat Ciro Rodreguiez but Bonilla lost by 10 points.
Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Last State Rankings

Already the election season is almost over. Just three more days until we know the outcome of the presidential race and many other races. Since we wanted to get in a last update, here are the rankings for the states. Obama is still leading strongly. He is getting very close in states that no one thought he could win such as Indiana. Obama's 50 state strategy did work after all. In the rankings, Obama will appear to be doing alot better and we believe he will win because of the all the early voting and the excitment in his campaign. Also, something people never talk about is that alot of voters who are economically hurting but might feel uncomfortable about voting for a black man will probably vote for Obama in the end because of their pocketbooks. Now here are the rankings which are a little different than usual. The state that is number one is most likely to switch parties and the color it is in is the way it voted last presidential election.

1.Iowa

2.New Mexico
3.Colorado
4. Virginia
5.Nevada
6.Ohio
7.Florida
8.North Carolina
9.Missouri
10.Indiana
11.New Hampshire
12.Pennsylvania
13.Georgia
14.Arizona
15.Montana
16.North Dakota
17.West Virginia
18.Wisconsin
19.Michigan
20.Minniesota
21.South Dakota
22.Kentucky
23. Maine
24. Oregon
25. Washington
26. South Carolina
27. Mississippi
28. Arkansas
29. New Jersey
30. Conneticut
31. Texas
32. Tennessee
33. Louisiana
34. Alabama
35. Kansas
36. Rhode Island
37. Oklahoma
38. Nebraska
39. California
40. Vermont
41. Delaware
42. Idaho
43. Hawaii
44. Alaska
45. Vermont
46. Massachuttses
47. New York
48. Wyoming
49. Utah
50. Illinois
51. D.C

The last ones may not be as precise as we want because of polling data. Just put it this way, any state under 20th most likely to switch is definitely in the hands of the party that won it last time. The polls that show Pennsylvania getting closer probably will not be enough to switch it. If McCain does not win Pennsylvania, it is over. All Obama has to do is win New Mexico, Iowa and something else that has 6 or more electoral votes. Our current estimation is that Obama will come out with about 300 electoral votes.
Please feel free to comment on this post and vote on our poll.

The Governers Races

Well, we said that we would talk about the races for governer sometime this year. Sorry for the delay but we believe that predictions close to the elections are most accurate. We will have the state rankings on the weekend before the election. Also we want to point out that the poll we just put on the blog will close the moment polls in our home state (California) close. Now back to the governers races. Republicans see oppurtunities in two races for governers and those two races will be very close. If this were a Republican year or even a neutral year, those two governerships would go to the Republicans. This is a big Democratic year and that makes those two races much closer. We are going to put the four governer races that are most likely to switch. Two as we already said are held by Democrats while the others are held by Republicans. Enough chatter, to the rankings.

1. Missouri (Open Blunt)R
Matt Blunt was unpopular and probably would have lost anyway against Attorney General Democrat Jay Nixon. Having Roy Blunt the House minority whip be Matt's father certainly did not help him. Now Kenny Hulshof from Missouri's 9th congressional district is running but he seems to be faring no better. The most recent poll had Nixon ahead by 19 points. Put it this way, Nixon should start deciding how he wants to decorate the governer's mansion.
Estimation, Democratic win

2. North Carolina (Open Easley) D
This race will be extremely close. Charlotte mayor Pat McCroy (R) faces state senator Beverly Perdue (D.) Perdue was down four points in the most recent poll but a surge of young and African American voters driven by Obama may have been underestimated. Most polls only interview likely voters, not voters who vote only sometimes. Anyway, the only danger to Perdue is that she probably cannot pull a big margin out of Charlotte like Obama will because that is Pat McCroy's home turf. We may be surprised though.
Estimation Too Close to Call

3. Washington Gregorie D
Deja vu? Maybe, Dino Rossi is running against incumbent Christine Gregorie again. In 2004, the two politicans faced each other and after a lengthy recount, Gregorie won by only 129 votes. Recently, we thought that this race would be just like 2004 but recent polls show Gregorie getting a small lead. The Obama surge will definitely help and it may just be what Gregorie needs to win.
Estimation Small Denocratic win

4. Indiana Daniels R
What the Democrats thought would be a great chance for a pickup now is fading away. Daniels was originally unpopular but now seems to be getting his sealegs. The Democrats nominated State Senator Jill Long Thompson who was not a very good candidate. Most polls showed Daniels with a large lead except for the most recent one which had him ahead by four points. That could be showing a change of direction but probably not enough for Thompson to pull off a win. Obama definitely will help but it will probably not be enough.
Estimation 6 point Republican win

Please feel free to share your thoughts on the blog or this post by commenting.

The Three Big Battlegrounds of the East

The three big battlegrounds of the presidential election. What do you think they are. Do you think they are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvaina. If that is your guess, you are two thirds right. Obama is leading in every poll by either the high single digits or low double digits. McCain still thinks he can win there but with Philadelphia probably going to deliever Obama something a bit over a 450,000 vote margin and the horrible economy, McCain should pull out of there. The state that takes Pennsylvania's place is not Virginia, it looks like Obama will win there by five points. The state that really will be close is North Carolina. It is the third big battleground in the Eastern time zone. These three states are going to be very close in the general election and while you are watching the returns on election night, we are going to tell you what to look for when the results start trickling in.

In Ohio, probably the most competitive state this election, there are alot of things to watch for. Obama is planning to do really well in Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Its population is 29% African American and the county is heavily unionized. Kerry got a margin there of 227,000 votes but it was not enough. Obama will have to do better than Kerry there and can probably get about an extra 40,000 votes. Another place Obama has to do well is Franklin County which contains Columbus. It is a well educated area with some African Americans. Obama would probably need to get a margin at a minimum of 20,000 votes or higher than Kerry's. Then there is Hamilton County which contains Cinnecinati. We believe that if Obama can win Hamilton County, he will win Ohio. Bush won Hamilton County by 23,000 votes and about 23% African American. They will definitely turnout strongly for him and they may be what it takes for Obama to win. Then there is the rural and conservative western part of the state where Obama needs to keep down McCain's margins. Since the area turned out heavily in 2004, there is probably not much room for increase. Then there is the Manhoning valley where Obama needs to do better than Kerry. Since the economy is failing there, the voters may want change but the Hillary and Bradley effect are pretty prevalent there. They may not be enough.

In Florida, there are alot of things to monitor. Watch Miami Dade County and see how Obama is doing there. He will need to win that county by ten points or more. Miami Dade County has alot of African Americans and Cuban Americans and it will be important to see how the Hispanics will vote and how large the African American turnout will be. Obama will need to do better than Kerry in the rest of the Gold Coast. Palin was a big help to Obama in those counties because Jewish voters who were originally scared of Obama's race and opinions of Israel and more scared of how right wing Palin is. Then in the Tampa Bay area, Obama will need to win Pinellas County by about 5 points and he will need to win Hillsborough County. That county will be close and we think if Obama wins Hillsborough County, he will win Florida. In Orange County where Orlando is, Obama will need to win there by five points. The I-4 corrider votes one point more Republican than the rest of the state, if Obama can carry it, he wins Florida. The central part of the Panhandle will be interesting to watch. Tallahassee and small counties with alot of African Americans are located there. Obama needs to do much better there than Kerry did.

In North Carolina, there are less places to really analyze since it is the smallest state out of these three. Obama has to do very well in the northeastern part of the state which has alot of rural African American communities. Also an important county to watch is Wake County which contains Raleigh. Obama needs to carry the county by about ten points if he wants to win North Carolina. There are alot of well educated people and African Americans in that county. Also an important place to boost the turnout would be in Durham. Obama would need to carry Forsyth County which contains Winston Salem. If he carries that county, he wins the state. Bush won it by nine points last time but the county has a large African American population. Another really important county where Obama needs to win by ten points or more is Mecklenberg County where Charlotte is located. There is a large African American population there and communities of white liberals. McCain should do well in the western part of the state except for Asheville which Obama must carry. A place to watch should be southeastern North Carolina to see if Obama is able to keep down McCain's margins there.

For Ohio, what really should be watched is how well is Obama doing in Franklin County, who is winning Hamilton County, how large are Obama's margins in the Manhoning Valley. For Florida, who is winning Hillsborough County, how large are Obama's margins on the Gold Coast, how is McCain doing in the northern part of the state. In North Carolina, is Obama running well in Wake, Forsyth, Buncombe and Mecklenberg counties, how is McCain doing in the southeastern part of the state. Watch these things to see who wins.
Please feel free to leave your comment on this post.

Where the Senate Seats Stand

Now that it is exactly one month away from the election, everyone is talking about the presidential race. A few people are mentioning the Senate races but they are currently not a big deal right now. So if you are looking for some information on the Senate races, here is some. For more in depth talk about the Senate races, please look at our recent post about the Senate seats most likely to switch. As it looks, the North Carolina race is getting more competitive and Landrieu is getting safer despite all the calls saying she is still not out of the woods. The Minniesota race still is very close and the prospects for Democrats keep getting stronger and stronger but we still do not believe that Democrats can gain nine seats. Now, here are the rankings.


Solid Dem(11 seats)
Pryor(Arkansas) Biden(Delaware) Durbin(Illinois) Harkin(Iowa) Kerry(Massachusetts) Levin(Michigan) Baucus(Montana) Lautenberg(New Jersey) Reed(Rhode Island) Johnson(South Dakota) Rockerfeller(West Virginia)

Likely Dem(1 seat)
Virginia(Open Warner)

Lean Dem(5 seats)
Alaska(Stevens) Colorado(Open Allard) Landrieu(Louisiana) Sumunu(New Hampshire) New Mexico(Open Domenichi)

Toss Up(4 seats)
Coleman(Minniesota) Wicker(Mississippi) Dole(North Carolina) Smith(Oregon)

Lean Rep(2 seats)
McConnel(Kentucky) Collins(Maine)

Likely Rep(3 seats)
Chambliss(Georgia) Inhofe(Oklahoma) Cornyn(Texas)

Solid Rep(9 seats)
Sessions(Alabama) Idaho(Open Criag) Roberts(Kansas) Cochran(Mississippi) Nebraska(Open Hagel) South Carolina(Graham) Alexander(Tennessee) Enzi(Wyoming) Barrasso(Wyoming)

From the looks of it, Democrats will certainly get at least five seats. They will have to win every seat that is a toss up to reach the goal of 60. That will not happen. They will probably gain either 6 or 7. The Minniesota race is dead even, along with the Oregon. Also if Stevens is accquited in his trial, he will have a much better chance of retaining his seat. In Mississippi, Wicker has a lead of about three points but it could be diminished. Also, people thought the New Hampshire race would get really close but Shaheen continues to hold a lead. Dole in North Carolina has a smaller chance of surviving now and it seems to be tilting to Hagan.
Please feel free to comment on this post.

States Most Likely to Switch

Obama is experiencing a surge in the polls currently and many more states are coming into play. A couple of weeks ago, everyone said Obama was doing horribly but look at where he is now. Although polls have not given him a lead in Ohio yet, they probably will soon. People are finally realizing how far right Palin really is and Obama was able to hold up against McCain in the debate. It will be interesting to see how Biden does in the debate. Now with the states, North Carolina and Florida are getting alot closer and Obama has a much better chance of winning those states now. Also, Indiana is getting more close but there are not many polls from that state so we don't really know what the outlook is there. We will say one thing, Obama would win the election if it were held today and it will take a major flop to make him lose. So far, that has not happened. The format for the rankings is the same as the one for the Senate. Here are the states most likely to switch parties.

1. Iowa
The Real Clear Politics average is Obama ahead by nine points. Being a neighbor of Illinois is definitely an asset here. With turnout in the west not as high as 2004 and with larger turnout in the university areas, this state is for Obama.

2. New Mexico
Obama's lead here is almost as large as the one in Iowa. Again, the turnout in Little Texas will not be high enough and Obama will probably do better with Hispanics than Kerry did. McCain is a neighbor but that is probably not enough for him to win. Also, there will probably be highly increased turnout in the Santa Fe area.

3. Colorado
After thinking for a long time about where we should put it on the line, we finally decided here. Why? The recent polls show Obama up by an average of five points and there will likely be very high turnout in the Boulder area because its House member, Mark Udall is running for Senate. For more in depth analysis of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, please see the Battle for the West.

4.Virginia
Earlier in the month, we thought that this state was probably going for McCain although Obama may have been able to get a comeback. It seems like he has one and most polls right now show him with a small lead. The reason is most likely that voters in Fairfax County and the rest of northern Virginia are not so fond of Palin, her inexperience and her far right views. The heavy turnout of African Americans may not be as high as hoped but probably will still be enough to make Obama win the state. This could be the Ohio of 2008.

5. Ohio
This state has economic woes and a high unemployment rate. The state wants a different direction for the country. McCain hopes to win by turnout in southwest Ohio. It is possible Obama could win Hamilton which contains Cinncenati by large African American turnout but that win would be offset by the suburbs. Obama needs to equal Kerry in counties around Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Ohio may be the state that decides this election and just like last year, should be watched closely.

6. Nevada
After wondering whether New Hampshire should hold this spot, we decided that Nevada would go here and New Hampshire would be at seven. Nevada as we said in a recent post is a different state from the other states in the area. The economy is on gambling and the corporations and unions are friends. For more details, please see the battle for the west post. Expect this state to be close.

7. New Hampshire
We think Obama has a better than 50% chance of winning this state but it is still just a small gap. New Hampshire is a state where McCain has always run strong. He won there in 2000 and in 2008 which virtually was the reason he is now on the ballot for president. Obama will try to run up margins in the western counties but he must make sure he can keep McCain's margins in the suburbs of Boston low enough so they can't offset Obama's margins.

8. North Carolina
Well we thought that this state was completely written off for Obama and McCain would win here in the high single digits. We even thought that number wise, it would be impossible for Obama to win but it seems that we were wrong. The African Americans in the state are definitely going to turnout strongly for Obama. So will the Liberals in Durham and Charlotte. Obama may even be able to do well among other groups. Although McCain will probably win here in the end. the state will be close.

9. Florida
This was another state that we had all but written off because of all the Republicans there and we thought it would be hard for Obama to attain the margins among Jewish voters that Kerry did. Polls are showing a closer race here and the Palin pick will hurt more than help in Florida. It will be very hard for a moderate Jewish voter who originally might support McCain but hates Palin because she is such a religious Christian. Also, Obama can probably create a large increase in turnout among African Americans here. Although McCain will probably win Florida in the end, Obama should try hard to win it.

10. Michigan
McCain thought that this would be the state he could pick off from Obama. Earlier in the month, we thought he may be correct but he was probably not. Poll after poll shows Obama with a lead here and that lead probably will not fall. Obama will turnout Detroit and do well with working class voters on the economy. McCain may come back but it is not likely.

Overall, we think Obama will win here. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.

Top Ten Senate Races

Our recent posts were about competitive states. We'll have more on that subject soon but right now, we are going to give an update on the Senate races. We've extended our rankings to ten from seven in our last post. Instead of putting the Senate seat most likely to switch on the bottom of the line, we will put it on the top of the line. It will still be ranked number one. The outlook for the Senate seems to be getting worse for the Republicans. The Republicans who seem to have escaped the possibility of a competitive race are Susan Collins, Mitch McConnel and John Cornyn. It seems likely that the Landrieu will win and that the Democrats will win about 5 to 7 seats. They won't have a filibuster proof majority but they may still be able to reject filibusters with help of moderate Republicans such as Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. The Democrats will finally be able to send "Traitor" Joe to the other side of the aisle. Enough chit chat, to the rankings.


1.Virginia
No surprise, even with Warner's poor keynote speech, he is leading at about 20 points. Jim Gilmore has absolutely no chance. Warner will be the next Senator from the Old Dominion and his great showing may help Obama enough to give the state to him.

2. New Mexico
Tom Udall has almost a great chance as Warner to win this seat. The NRCC have already pulled their ads out of the state. Pearce is just too conservative and Udall continues to lead by double digits. Also, Udall will be helped by the fact that Obama is leading in the mid single digits in most New Mexico polls and will probably win the state.


3. Colorado
This seat is probably going to switch as well. Bob Schaffer's strategy of painting Udall as a Boulder Liberal either hasn't worked or the voters don't mind. Colorado will be close this election but the Democratic trend in Colorado will probably be enough for Udall to win. He is currently leading in the mid single digits in most polls and that lead is likely to hold.

4. New Hampshire
After wondering whether New Hampshire and Alaska should hold this spot, we chose New Hampshire. Please note that we think New Hampshire is just a bit ahead of Alaska. Jeanne Shaheen has had a lead in the polls for the last few months but it seems to be dropping now. Some people think that Sumunu who has more money will be the winner. Although the race has been getting a bit closer, we expect Shaheen to win over Sumunu. This is not the first match between the two. Sumunu won by 4 points in 2002 which was a Republican leaning year. This is definitely another Democratic year which will probably be what it takes to make Sumunu lose.

5. Alaska
Stevens is still in trouble. He was indicted recently and his trial will be held soon. Some voters still do not seem to mind that Ted Stevens may have broken the law but enough care to make Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich have a small lead over Stevens. Palin may have helped Stevens a bit but now that her popularity is wearing down, Stevens will probably sink lower in the polls. Even if he is not found guilty, Stevens will be in for the fight of his life.

6. Minniesota
This was another race that we had a hard time placing on the rankings. It is just a hair ahead of Oregon. In the summer, Al Franken had trouble finding his footing and was not viewed very favorably. Now he has really started to campaign and the wind of change is in the air. Norm Coleman has to distance himself from Bush which is pretty hard. Also, Franken must do well in the Twin Cities core and keep Coleman's margins in the counties around the core lower than the margins in the core. Coleman won in 2002 because of turnout in the area. Expect this race to be one of the closest on the cycle.

7. Oregon
Even though Jeff Merkley is not the best candidate to beat Gordon Smith, this race is definitely getting close. Smith must distance himself from Bush and he is pretty moderate so it may not be too hard. Still, Smith must fight a wind of change and also must acknowledge that Obama will probably carry Oregon in the high single digits which will help Merkley. Although we think in the end that Smith will win by 2 to 3 points, this race could be decided by less than one point.

8. North Carolina
In June we thought that this could be a close race but a month later it seemed that Elizabeth Dole would have an easy time winning. That will not be the case. Kay Hagan seems to be coming back and a recent Rasmussen poll shows Hagan ahead by 3 points. Hagan will be helped by increased African American turnout and enthusiasm brought on by Obama. Also, Dole will have to distance herself from Bush which will be hard for her. This race could get closer and Hagan may be able to pull off a win.

9. Mississippi
There does not seem to be much hope for the Democrats here. Roger Wicker has been able to maintain a lead of about 5 to 6 points. Democrats may still be able to increase the amount of African American turnout but it probably will not be as high as they want. Ronnie Musgrove may be able to win a small share of the white vote but that probably will not be enough. We are not writing Musgrove off, we just think his chances are not good.

10. Louisiana
This race is no longer competitive. It is the only Democratic race on our rankings and it may not be on here any longer when we do our next Senate rankings. Landrieu continues to lead and a Rasmussen poll out today shows her leading by 13 points. That is a large lead and that means she is pretty safe. The only real reason we put this race on the line was that other races were not close enough.

We will probably put either one or two more posts with Senate rankings before election day. Your thoughts, questions and comments are always appreciated.

The Battle for the West

Obama instead of focusing almost completely on Pennorida (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) is now setting his sites on Nevexicado( Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado.) I think it is a good strategy. Al Gore focused only on Florida but lost because he tried to put all his eggs in one basket. Kerry tried to put his eggs in two baskets by focusing only on Florida and Ohio. Two was still not enough for him but Obama now is trying to put his eggs in more baskets. One is Iowa and Virginia, the other is Nevexicado. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado add up to 19 electoral votes. If Obama can hold onto all the Kerry states and completely win Nevexicado, he will be the president. Kerry did not try hard enough in those states and if he tried to put his eggs in that basket as well as Ohio and Florida, he would have won. Enough chitter chatter about eggs and baskets, let's start analyzing things and we can see how Obama can pull off a win in all three states.

New Mexico, this state should be the easiest for Obama to win out of these three. Bush won there by only 5,988 votes and the reason he won was that there was alot of turnout in heavily Republican Little Texas. Although Palin is able to excite the religious conservatives, she probably cannot do it at the level that Bush did. Also, Bush managed to receive 44% of the Hispanic vote. Obama can definitely do better than Kerry did among Hispanics. Also, he will do well in Liberal Santa Fe and can probably win Bernallio County by a larger margin than Kerry. Yes, Arizona is a neighbor of New Mexico but that will probably not be enough for McCain to win. Already, we have listed New Mexico as Lean Democratic on our most recent state rankings.

Nevada is another state Obama will have to win. It is a very unique state. The unions and the corporations are friends and the economy is mostly focused on the gambling industry. Kerry lost the state by 22,000 votes and the reason is that he did not do well enough with Hispanics and Bush did very well in the counties outside of Clark County (the Cow Counties) where Las Vegas is located. McCain cannot probably match the levels of turnout in the Cow Counties so he will need to do well with white voters in Clark County. Obama will need to do alot better with Hispanics there and can increase African American turnout. Palin will help McCain in the Cow Counties but it may not be enough. The Cow Counties have high turnout while Clark County has lower turnout. On election night, watch Washoe County where Reno is located. If Obama can win that county, he has won Nevada.

Colorado is the biggest of the three. It is also the state with the biggest Democratic trend. The Liberal populations of Denver and Boulder along with the growing number of Hispanics are a big help in making the state trend Democratic. There was very high turnout in those areas in 2004 so Democrats may have a hard time finding new voters there. They need to win by doing well with Independents and also need to do well on the Western Slope. If Obama wins Larmier, Jefferson and Araphone Counties, he will probably have won the state. The rural counties in the east won't turnout as strongly this year as 2004 but there is Colorado Springs. There is a large military population there and McCain will do well with it. This state we believe will be very close in the general election and it may come down to it.

Now here are the places to watch on election night. In New Mexico, is McCain doing well in Little Texas? Is Obama doing well in the Santa Fe and Albequerque areas? Is he doing well around Las Cruces? In Nevada, is Obama leading by about seven to nine points in Clark County? Is Washoe County really close? Is McCain doing well in the Cow Counties? In Colorado, is Obama winning the counties that we mentioned earlier, is he doing well on the Western Slope? How high is the turnout in Denver and Boulder? Is the turnout in Colorado Springs high? If you want to see who will win these states on election night before all the votes are in? These are the areas to watch. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting and voting on our poll.

State Rankings

It has been a long time since we posted the state rankings for the presidential election. We apoligize for not posting the rankings since June. During that time, alot of changes have been made. Palin has energized conservatives in the South and the rest of the country so Obama's plans to win Mississippi and Georgia with African American turnout are dashed. McCain will probably win those two states by ten to twelve points, lower than Bush's margin in Georgia and Mississippi. Also, Texas has been written off too and McCain will probably win by about 14 points. We never mentioned North Dakota and Montana as possible states for Obama but he won't win those states. Obama still has a shot at North Carolina but McCain seems to be leading there by about 4 to 6 points right now. Also, we had all but written off Indiana but we just saw a new poll with McCain up by only 2 points. That state is in play but we think Obama will not win it. Enough chatter, now to the rankings. States colored blue will have voted Democratic in 2004 and states colored red will have voted Republican in 2004.


Solid Dem(164 electoral votes)
California(55) Conneticut(7) Delaware(3) District of Columbia(3) Hawaii(4) Illinois(21) Maryland(10) Massachuttses(12) New York (31) Rhode Island(4) Vermont(3) Washington (11)


Likely Dem(19 electoral votes)
Maine(4) New Jersey (15)

Lean Dem(60 electoral votes)
Iowa(7) Minniesota(10) New Mexico(5) Oregon(7) Pennsylvania(21) Wisconsin(10)

Toss Up(68 electoral votes)
Colorado(9) Michigan(17) Nevada(5) New Hampshire(4) Ohio(20) Virginia(13)

Lean Rep(64 electoral votes)
Florida(27) Indiana(11) Missouri(11) North Carolina(15)

Likely Rep(21 electoral votes)
Georgia(15) Montana(3) North Dakota(3)

Solid Rep(144 electoral votes)
Alabama(9) Alaska(3) Arizona(10) Arkansas(6) Idaho(4) Kansas(6) Kentucky(8) Louisiana(9) Mississippi(6) Nebraska(5) Oklahoma(7) South Carolina(8) South Dakota(3) Tennessee(11) Texas(34) Utah(5) West Virginia(5) Wyoming(3)

Obama 243 McCain 227
The states really have been heading toward one candidate leaving the traditional battleground states along with Virginia. Soon, we will start posting posts that analyze the battleground states and a few of the leaners. Also, on our next ranking, do expect that Pennsylvania may be in the toss up catergory next because it is in the Lean Obama catergory by a thread. To test our or your own scenario, please visit http://www.270towin.com/ Thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

Gephardt, Bayh or Dodd for VP?

There is currently a lot of talk as to who the VPs will be. We are joining it and we have found three more picks for Obama. The former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana and Senator Chris Dodd from Conneticut. We always think we are out of VP ideas and then a few more come to mind. We have not seen one article mentioning Gephardt for VP but we have seen some for Bayh. Now that Jim Webb has left the VP playing field, Obama needs some new choices. Now, here are the upsides and downsides of these two possible VP candidates.

Richard Gephardt is from Missouri which will be close in the general election. That will help Obama there and as Gephardt is from the St. Louis area, it might increase turnout there. Also, Gephardt is very experienced which will be a big help to Obama on that issue. That does come with a problem. Gephardt may be seen as yesterday's news and not quite part of Obama's change message. Oh, did we mention Gephardt voted to authorize the Iraq war? The funny thing is no one is mentioning Gephardt as a possible VP candidate except for us. We did, however mention Wesley Clark and the media floated his name quickly after that.


Evan Bayh is the Junior Senator of Indiana. He is very popular in his home state and since Indiana may be competitive, Bayh could be enough to tilt it to Obama. Edwards did not give Kerry North Carolina but was not very popular. Bayh is much more popular so he may be helpful enough. Bayh has not been through the presidential process of being vetted but he does not seem to have any problems in his background. Also, Bayh has been a governer for two terms and has been in the U.S Senate since 1999. He is not as experienced as Joe Biden or Chris Dodd but he still has a good amount of experience under his belt. He was a big Hillary supporter during the primaries so he might be able to please them.


Chris Dodd is the Senior Senator from Conneticut. His location will not help much as Conneticut should vote for Obama anyway. He does have alot of experience and Obama needs someone like that on the ticket. Also, Dodd has been vetted and been through the presidential process. The problem is that he does not bring enough to the ticket and may be viewed as elitist. If Obama wants a VP with experience, he should pick someone other than Dodd.

When it comes down to it, Obama does have alot of choices and he should decide soon. He needs to get a VP so he can start concentrating on other things and have the VP there to help him. This may be our last post on possible VP's for Barack Obama because he is bound to choose soon. We do think we are finally out of ideas but we may have another post on possible VP's for McCain.

McCain's VP Picks

We have talked on and on about Obama's VP picks but we have barely mentioned possible VP picks for McCain. There are quite a few choices for McCain. Here is a list of people McCain may pick for VP.


Tim Pawlenty, the Republican Governer of Minniesota is a possibility. He is a young guy unlike McCain. That will help McCain to not be portrayed as an old and boring guy. Pawlenty is from Minniesota which will help McCain there but it is hard to tell whether Pawlenty will help McCain much there. He was reelected by 23,000 votes against Mike Hatch who was not the greatest candidate Democrats could find in that state. Pawlenty could help McCain connect to blue collar voters because of Pawlenty's blue collar background.

John Thune, the Republican Junior Senator from South Dakota is a good choice. He is young and energetic. In 2004, he defeated Tom Daschle who was the Senate minority leader at the time. Thune is popular with the party base so he could do get some conservatives who don't like McCain. If McCain needs someone who is not boring and tired like him, Thune would be the guy. Pawlenty may be a better choice because South Dakota would probably go for McCain without Thune on the ticket.

Tom Ridge, the former Republican governer of Pennsylvania and former Secreatary of Homeland Security would be a good pick for McCain. Although Ridge is not quite young and fresh by being in his early 60's, he is not quite old and tired. He will help McCain in Pennsylvania and that will be essential for McCain's plan to pick off states that Kerry won in 2004. Tom Ridge is pro choice so evangelicals will not like him. Although conventional wisdom suggests that McCain should pick someone popular with evangelicals so they will help him in the South, McCain needs someone who can help him with moderates.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson, the Republican Senior Senator of Texas. Although Texas is considered a McCain state, it may come into play and Hutchinson would stop that. She would appeal to women and she is also pro choice. The problem with her is that conservative men who do not like McCain would be too sexist to vote for her. That could be equaled out by moderate women voters.

Bobby Jindal, the Republican Governer of Louisiana is another good choice for McCain. We do not believe he will be the guy. He is very young (37) which will be a help to McCain. Jindal is from India which may worry some conservatives. Jindal was able to carry 54% of the vote in Louisiana in 2007 but when he ran for governer in 2002, he did poorly in the northern part of the state which is more conservative. He has been able to cross racial lines in Louisiana but we need to see if he can do the same in the rest of the country.

Mitt Romney, the former Republican Governer of Massachuttses and former presidential hopeful. He has been thoroughly vetted which will be important. If McCain picks someone who has not been vetted, some unexpected story about the VP could surface which would not be good for McCain. Also, Romney has appeal in the western rural states because he is a Mormon but that will not help with evangelicals. Romney could help with other conservatives but is viewed as a flip flopper which is one of the reasons he is not the nominee. One thing is that McCain and Romney may not like each other enough to work on the same campaign.

When it comes dowm to it, we believe Ridge is the best choice with Pawlenty and Romney tying for second place. Ridge has been vetted more, his location and solidness will be what McCain needs. Pawlenty has not been vetted and the vetting issue is very important in this election as McCain will not want to take risks. Romney and McCain may not like each other enough to be on the same ticket.
Please feel free to say who you think the VP should be by commenting on this post.

Senate Rankings

Here are the current rankings of where we think the Senate races currently stand. If you would like an analysis or want to learn more about the most competitive Senate races, look at our recent post about the Senate races most likely to switch. Seats that are currently held by Democrats are in blue while seats currently held by Republicans are in red. Well, here are the rankings.

Strong Dem(10 seats)
Arkansas(Pyror) Delaware(Biden) Illinois(Durbin) Iowa(Harkin) Massachuttses(Kerry) Michigan(Levin) Montana(Baucus) Rhode Island(Reed) South Dakota (Johnson) West Virginia(Rockerfeller)

Likely Dem(2 seats)
New Jersey(Lautenburg) Virginia Open(Warner)

Lean Dem(2 seats)
Louisiana(Landireu) New Hampshire(Sumunu)

Toss up(5 seats)
Alaska(Stevens) Colorado Open(Allard) Minniesota(Coleman) Mississippi(Wicker) New Mexico Open(Domeinichi)

Lean Rep(3 seats)
Maine(Collins) North Carolina(Dole) Oregon(Smith)

Likely Rep(2 seats)
Kentucky(McConnel) Texas(Cornyn)

Solid Rep(11 seats)
Alabama(Sessions) Georgia(Chambliss) Idaho Open(Craig) Kansas(Roberts) Mississippi(Cochran) Nebraska Open(Hagel) Oklahoma(Inhofe) South Carolina(Graham) Tennessee(Alexander) Wyoming(Enzi) Wyoming(Barrasso)

These are the rankings for the Senate races of 2008. Democrats will have to gain nine seats to reject a fillibuster and have total control of the Senate. That would require them to get every seat up to toss up and two of the seats leaning Republican. It will probably not happen but as we said recently, the Democrats will gain 5 to 6 seats.
If you have any thoughts, please feel free to comment this post.

Three More Possible VPs

The talk of Obama's VP has died down recently. We have not mentioned many new ones recently until now. Wesley Clark seems to be a great pick for Obama. He has been brought up a bit but not much. Clark seems to have everything necessary to be Obama's VP. Obama needs someone who is experienced and Wesley Clark is very experienced. He was a four star general for NATO. Also, Wesley Clark was a big Hillary supporter and that will help Obama with some disenchanted Hillary supporters although there are not many left in that group. Wesley Clark will help Obama with the military and he is someone who can respond to McCain's combat experience. Wesley Clark has never held public office before and that would help Obama as portraying himself as the change candidate. Clark is from Arkansas but he is not likely to help there. He can help in the military communities in Virginia and Colorado. Those are states that Bush won in 2004 and if Obama could hold onto the Democratic states and win those two, he would be president. We do not really see any horrible problems for Clark except that the Republicans may use the fact that Clark never held public office against him. We do believe that fact will probably be more of a help than a problem.

These are two other picks that we do not think are good picks for Obama but we wanted to just float these names in the air. Obama is probably considering the former Senator of Georgia Sam Nunn for VP. Nunn is experienced and may help Obama in Georgia where Obama hopes he can be competitive enough to win. There are more downsides to Nunn however. He will be 70 in September which is probably a bit too old. Nunn has not been in politics for twevle years so he may not be quite as skilled as needed. He is a very conservative Democrat and he supports school prayer and opposes gay rights which will help in the South but not with Liberals. Overall, we believe Nunn is too old for VP and too conservative.

We do not believe Senator Chuck Hagel from Nebraska would be the best VP for Obama but we wanted to float the name because there are some things Hagel would bring to the ticket to help Obama. Hagel has a good amount of experience and is a big opponent of the Iraq war. That would help Obama as the anti war candidate although he is doing a fantastic job being the anti war candidate by himself. Hagel probably cannot bring Nebraska into Obama's collum but Nebraska has a weird way of proportioning its electoral votes. The winner of a congressional district gets one electoral vote and the winner of the state gets an extra two electoral votes. Hagel could probably get Obama one electoral vote from Nebraska. Hagel is a Republican so he could get some Republicans to vote for Obama. That is a double edged sword though because that may not make some Liberals happy. Also, Hagel is conservative on almost everything else. This is why Hagel would not be the best choice for Obama's VP.

Out of these three, Clark is the best pick. We think that Clark is the best pick after Webb or maybe even as good as Webb. We definitely think there are a lot of great choices for Obama's VP. We have talked much about McCain's VP and we plan to make a post about that soon. Please feel free to share your thoughts about these VP picks.

The Senate Races Most Likely to Switch

Even if McCain wins, the Democrats are still going to make gains in Congress. It is unlikely the Democrats will pick up nine seats to overturn a fillibuster. The Democrats will probably get about 5 to 6 seats. With this large majority, Harry Reid can move "Traitor" Joe to the other side of the aisle. The Democrats will have an easier time pushing their agenda. If McCain does become president, he will have a nightmare facing the heavily Democratic Congress. If Obama becomes president, the Democrats will steer the agenda for two years and 2010 will probably be a Republican year. We have a list of the seven Senate races that are most likely to switch parties. The Senate race with the 1 next to it is the Senate race that we believe has the best chance of switching parties. Enough chitter chatter, onto the list.

7. Louisiana (held by Democrat)
Mary Landrieu is up for reelection and she won 52%-48% in her last election. She will be facing state treasurer John Kennedy(R) who is a former Democrat. Landrieu will definitely be helped by Obama. He will probably bring large numbers of African Americans to the polls. The African American population of Louisiana was 32%. That number has probably dropped a bit after Katrina and it remains to be seen how many African Americans there are in Lousiana after Katrina. Currently we believe this race is slightly tilting Democratic.

6. Mississippi (held by a Republcan)
Although Thad Cochran is pretty safe, the new Senator Roger Wicker (R) is having a tough time holding onto his seat. The former governer of the state Ronnie Musgrove (D) is running against Wicker. Wicker has never held statewide office before. He was the Representative from the 1st Congressional district of Mississippi. Haley Barbour appointed Wicker to fill Trent Lott's open U.S Senate seat. Musgrove is a conservative white Democrat so he must get enough whites to vote for him so he can win along with the African American turnout Obama will bring. Currently, this race is a toss up.

5. Alaska (held by a Republican)
Although Ted Stevens has been a Senator from Alaska for 40 years, this may be the last term for the longest serving Senator from the Last Frontier. He is facing Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage and the son of former congressman Nick Begich. Stevens usually wins reelection by a wide margin but that will not happen this time. Recently, the FBI raided his house due to an ethics charge. Polls show Stevens and Begich attracting about the same percentage of their own party. The reason for this race being close is that Begich has a large lead of unaffiliated voters. Expect this race to be one of the closest of the cycle. This race is currently a toss up.

4. Colorado (held by a Republican)
Since 2004, Democrats have been making gains in Colorado. They control the Governership, the state Senate and state House along with one U.S Senate seat. Wayne Allard who holds the other U.S Senate seat is retiring. Rep. Mark Udall (D) from Boulder and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) from the 4th district which contains Fort Collins and the eastern part of the state are both running for the seat. Recent polls show Udall with a lead and Obama will be contesting Colorado. Those two factors may be enough for Udall to pull off a win. This race currently leans Democratic.


3. New Mexico (held by a Republican)
We were not sure whether to give this spot to New Hampshire or not but we decided to give this to New Mexico. Pete Domenichi (R) is retiring and Rep. Tom Udall (D) who is the cousin of Mark Udall who is running for Senate in Colorado won an easy primary. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) will be running for the seat too. Pearce barely won the primary 51%-49% against Rep. Heather Wilson. Pearce is heavily conservative which is why he won the primary but that will probably not play well into the general election. Udall also is the son of Stewart Udall who was the Secretary of the Interior when Johnson and Kennedy were president. Polls show Udall with a lead which is why we think this race currently leans Democratic.


2. New Hampshire (held by a Republican)
This is not the first contest between former Governer Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Senator John Sumunu (R). In 2002, they ran against each other and Sumunu won only 51%-47%. Now Shaheen is back and polls show she is leading Sumunu in the high single didgits and the low double didgits. Sumunu is a moderate to conservative Republican and McCain is on the top of the ticket which may help Sumunu. Democrats have been doing really well in New Hampshire. Since 2004, Democrats gained the governership, both of New Hampshire's U.S house seats, control of the State House and State Senate. It looks like this may be Sumunu's last term even if McCain does win New Hampshire. This race currently leans Democratic.

1. Virginia (held by a Republican)
This race is almost certain to fall into Democratic hands. John Warner (R) is retiring and former Governer Mark Warner (D) is running for the seat. Former Governer Jim Gilmore (R) is running too but it looks like there is no chance for him. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Warner leading in the high teens. Now that Warner said he will not run for VP, it is certain he will be the Junior Senator of Virginia next year.

These our the opinons we have of the Senate Races most likely to switch this cycle. We plan to soon post rankings of the Senate seats like the rankings for the states in the presidential. In the future, we will make make the list of the Senate races most likely to switch longer.
If you have any thoughts on this list, please feel free to comment it.

State Rankings

Since our last rankings, some states have changed their spots. Michigan was formerly lean Obama but we changed it to toss up. Minniesota will replace Michigan on the lean Obama list. Missouri is being moved from lean Republican to toss up. There will be a few more changes but we believe these are the most important ones. We do believe that the battlegrounds may move to the west and not be as centered on Ohio although the Rust Belt states Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and possibly Indiana will be competitive. Well, here are the rankings.

Solid Obama (154 electoral votes)
California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (11) Washington D.C (3)

Likely Obama(14 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Delaware (3) Maine (4)

Leaning Obama (32 electoral votes)
Minniesota (10) New Jersey (15) Oregon (7)

Toss Up(122 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Missouri (11) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)


Leaning McCain(57 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Georgia (15) North Carolina (15)


Likely McCain(63 electoral votes)
Indiana (11) Louisiana (9) Mississippi (6) Montana (3) Texas (34)

Solid McCain(96 electoral votes)

Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Carolina (8) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Utah (5) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)

Total: Obama 200 McCain 216

Obama has managed to narrow the gap a bit but this is what is really important, the majority of the Obama states are solidly for him while the majority of the McCain states are not solidly for him. We moved many states that were formerly likely McCain because those states we believed could be competitive due to high African American populations but we believe they weren't high enough to give Obama those states. We moved Indiana because of the possibility of Evan Bayh being on the ticket (we will have a post about him soon) Texas just should not be ignored. We believe that even though there is a possibility of a high turnout of African Americans in Florida, we do not think it is quite enough to give Obama the state. If you want to test your electoral college scenarios, please go to www.270towin.com We hope to have a post talking about the most competitive states.
If you have any thoughts about the state rankings or something else, please feel free to comment it.

African American Turnout in the Big Battlegrounds

The biggest states that are currently battlegrounds are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. The percentage of African Americans in these states are all smaller than the states we talked about in our last post. The percentage of African Americans in Florida is 16%, Pennsylvania 11%, Ohio 12%, Michigan 14%. They would have the largest influence in Florida because it has the largest population of African Americans out of these states and many African Americans did not vote in 2004 while African American turnout in Ohio and Pennsylvania was higher.
In 2004, about 900,000 African Americans in Florida which made up about 12% of the voters there voted 86%-13% for Kerry. There are about 2.6 million African Americans in Florida and about 800,000 elligable African Americans did not vote. If Obama wants to win Florida by only using high African American turnout he would probably need between 60%-70% of the African Americans who did not vote to go to the polls on election day. Although McCain will get a boost from turnout of elderly and Hispanics, there will probably not be many new voters in the districts with lots of elderly residents. The turnout in those districts was very high in the 2004 election. For example, in the Florida 5th district which has the highest percentage of elderly residents in the nation (a bit under 40%,) had about 370,000 people vote there. The good side for McCain is that districts like the 5th are growing very quickly so he could get the new voters there to the polls. The congressional districts with large populations of African Americans do not have very high turnout. In the Florida 23rd district which is 51% African American had about 210,000 people vote there in 2004. Assuming about half of the voters there are African American, there are about 100,000 elligable African Americans who did not vote in 2004. There are many new voters Obama can get to the polls but he must do well with Jews and get the 18-29 year olds to the polls.
In Pennsylvania, a large turnout of African Americans will not be as influential as one in Florida. There are about 1.3 million African Americans in Pennsylvania and about 700,000 of them voted in 2004 and Kerry won them 84%-16%. This means there are only 200,000 elligable African Americans who did not vote in 2004. Kerry won Pennsylvania by 145,000 votes so Obama needs to turnout enough African Americans to offset any gains in the working class by McCain. Since the potential number of new African American voters in Pennsylvania is low, they might not be the main factor in giving Obama a victory here but if the vote count is exceedlingly close, they will have made the difference.
In Ohio, 10% of the voters in 2004 were African American and they voted 84%-16% for Kerry. A bit under 600,000 African Americans out of the 1.4 million in Ohio voted in 2004. Subtracting the number of African Americans too young to vote leaves around 370,000 elligable African Americans who did not vote in 2004. Bush won Ohio by 119,000 votes and Obama's percentage among African Americans definitely would increase over Kerry's which means that a bit under 1/3 of the African Americans who did not vote in 2004 would have to vote in 2008. The African American turnout would probably be not as influential here as it would in Florida. Many of the African Americans here vote, for example, 290,000 people voted in the Ohio 11th congressional district which is 55% African American.
In Michigan, about 600,000 out of the 1.4 million African Americans voted in 2004. Kerry won them 89%-10%. This means that there are a bit under 400,000 elligable African Americans in Michigan who did not vote in 2004. Like Florida, the heavily African American congressional districts here do not have as high turnout as Ohio. The 14th congressional district of Michigan had 265,000 voters in 2004 and this district is 61% African American. The problem for the Democrats is that the population of this district declined by 44,000 in the past six years. Obama won Michigan by 166,000 votes and McCain will definitely try to make inroads among the independents and the working class. The African American turnout Obama brings may just be able to offset McCain's margins in other parts of the state.
We do belive that even though Obama can get the highest increase in African American turnout in Florida, we think it is the state Obama has the least chance of winning out of these four. The elderly in Florida will go to McCain more strongly than to Bush and there are not many evangelicals there. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied for the state that Obama has the best chance of winning. Ohio is in the middle. The levels of African American turnout will probably be historic and if Obama wins, the turnout will have propelled him to victory.
If you have any thoughts about this post, please feel free to comment it.

A Look at Potential African American Turnout in the South

Now the Democratic nominee is certain. Obama as the first African American to be on a major party ticket will be taking on John McCain. The map will be different this year than in 2004. McCain will try to snatch Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minniesota and New Jersey from the Democrats. Obama will try to take Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia from the Republicans. We believe that Obama will have more oppurtunities in the South than just Virginia. There has been talk about other states in the South being competitive but the pundits say there are simply not enough African Americans. We do believe that Obama can create a massive turnout and some unenthusiastic evangelicals might not come out and vote.
A few really moderate ones may be inclined to go to Obama if Ted Strickland who is a former minister is on the ticket. Now here is the math to see how many African Americans Obama could get to the polls.
Mississippi has almost 1.1 million African American who voted 90%-10% for Kerry against Bush. About 1.1 million people voted in that election and of those voters, around 380,000 of those voters were African American. 1/3 of the population of Mississippi is under 18 but we do not know the percentage for African Americans. We do estimate that about 300,000 African Americans elligable to vote did not cast ballots. Bush won Mississippi by about 167,000 votes. This does not exactly mean that half of the African Americans who did not vote in 2004 in Mississippi need to vote. Obama will probably win African Americans 95%-5% which will already make his percent of the vote go up at least one point. As we pointed out earlier, many evangelicals are not enthused by McCain and they made up 48% of the voters in 2004. Then some of them hate Obama because of his race. So Obama in order to win Mississippi would have to increase African American turnout by a bit under 50% It is not impossible because that turnout happened in some parts of the Mississippi 1st district during the special election. The reason is that the Republican candidate, Greg Davis tried to tie the Democrat, Travis Childers to Barack Obama. A recent Rasmussen poll showed McCain leading in Mississippi by 6 points. Obama definitely should try hard to win Mississippi.
Even though Mississippi definitely should not be overlooked, it only has 6 electoral votes. Obama should try harder to win a bigger state such as North Carolina with 15 electoral votes. There are 1.9 million African Americans there and they are 22% of the population. In 2004, 900,000 African Americans in North Carolina voted for president and Kerry won them 85%-14%. We believe that there are between 400,000 and 500,000 African Americans who did not vote in 2004. Bush won North Carolina by 436,000 votes but this does not mean Obama needs to get 436,000 more African Americans out than in 2004. Obama will probably win African Americans 95%-5% making his percent of the vote go up 2 points even without the massive turnout. Then North Carolina has Durham with Duke University and the research triangle with well educated whites which has been a strength of Obama's in the primaries. It seems that after we include the turnout in the Durham area along with the drop in the evangelical turnout, Obama will need a bit more than 200,000 African Americans who did not vote in 2004 to vote in 2008. This is not impossible and the RCP poll average shows McCain with a lead of only three points.
Obama has a better shot at winning North Carolina than Georgia and he especially would if he put Edwards on the ticket. Georgia definitely should not be overlooked, it has 15 electoral votes and African Americans are 30% of the population. They cast 25% of the votes in 2004 and Kerry won them 88%-12% They cast over 800,000 votes out of the population of about 2.7 million. A bit under one million of the African Americans are children. That means about 900,000 African Americans elligible to vote didn't. Bush won Georgia in 2004 by 558,000 votes. The evangelicals who do not like McCain may vote for Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate for president who is from Georgia. We need to see how prominent Bob Barr becomes. If he does not become prominent, Obama will need 400,000 to 450,000 more African American voters to win Georgia. If Bob Barr does become prominent we estimate the winning number should over 200,000 African Americans. This is certainly possible for Obama.
Virginia and its 13 electoral votes is the state that Obama has the best chance of winning in the South. Yes, we believe Obama has a better chance here than in Florida. Virginia has about 1.5 million African Americans that are 20% of the population. The African American voting bloc here is not as influential here as in the other states we were talking about. In the 2004 presidential election, a bit over 600,000 African Americans voted and Kerry won them 87%-12% This means about 400,000 elligable African American voters did not vote in 2004. Bush won Virginia by 262,000 votes but this does not mean that Obama will have to get a bit over 200,000 African Americans who did not vote to the polls even counting the evangelicals who won't vote. McCain will probably get a boost of turnout from the military community but it might not be as stronlgy for McCain if Jim Webb is on the ticket. Then there is Northern Virginia which has been trending to the Democrats in recent years so Obama needs to do very well there. The way it looks is that Obama will need about 150,0000 more African Americans in 2004 to vote in the general. These factors make Virginia the most competitive state in the South. The RCP poll average has McCain up by only 1.3 points.
We could go on and on about other states in the South but we do not believe there are enough African Americans in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee to tilt the state to Obama. Louisiana may be competitive but we do not think there are enough African Americans and South Carolina has some retirement communities where McCain could do very well. We will have another post soon about how African American turnout can affect the traditional battleground states.
If you have any thoughts on this post, please feel free to comment it.

Why Won't Hillary Quit?

Hillary has almost no chance of getting the nomination. She is behind in pledged and superdelegates and has no way she can come back. She still will not quit. Most presidential hopefuls in Hillary's posistion would have left the race by now. Hillary is a fighter so she will not quit. Is that the real reason? We will discuss why Hillary is still in the race and why she got to where she is now.
When she first announced that she was running for president, all the polls showed her with a wide lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. She had more money than any of her opponents and she had much higher name recognition than her opponents. That made her belive that she would be the nominee. She ran a general election strategy by going to the center in issues. She knew Iowa was a weak state for her so she got the primary calender to be front loaded with states. She planned to make up a poor showing in Iowa and sweep Super Tuesday. Then she began to falter, she had the issue of having two different opinions about drivers liscenses for illegal immigrants in New York. Hillary Clinton gave Obama an opening to be the anti war candidate by not regretting that she voted for it. That is why Obama began to strike from nowhere and pulled off a win Iowa. Then Hillary came back and won New Hampshire by playing a woman who was bullied by the men. Next, Bill Clinton attacked Obama which later turned out to be a mistake. Obama crushed Clinton in South Carolina by 28 points. The Clintons should have seen it coming, Obama took 83% of the African American vote in Nevada. The Clintons pulled the race card by trying to diminish Martin Luther King's role in history and comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. If Hillary played the role of an anti war candidate, she would be the Democrats' nominee. Then Hillary did not sweep Super Tuesday as she hoped. She had not set up organizations in the remaining states because she believed the race would be over by then. She kept losing states but came back on March 4th. Then she lied about what happened when she went to Bosnia which did sway enough voters to give Pennsylvania to Obama. The primaries on May 6th told Hillary she would not be the nominee. The delegates of Michigan and Florida will count with half the vote but that will not be enough. Hillary was trapped by the rules she made. Perhaps if Michigan and Florida did count in the begining, Hillary would be the nominee. She herself gave Obama the nomination inadvertantly. Now the superdelegates must decide after the last primaries.
We have thoroughly discussed why Hillary is in this posistion now. Now here is why we believe she will not exit the race. The shock of not being out on top and believing she was inevitable is keeping Hillary in the race. She might still believe she can get it or maybe she wants to make a deal with Obama. It could be that she will be his VP. If Hillary does not drop out a little while after the last primaries, we were thinking that maybe Obama could offer to nominate her to be a Supreme Court justice if one retires. Then again, after the last primaries, the pressure for Hillary to drop out might be too much to resist.

A few more VP picks for Obama

Now that the VP search for Obama has gotten underway, we have a few more ideas about who his VP will be. Here are more possible VPs for Barack Obama:

Ed Rendell: He is the governer of Pennsylvania and he is Jewish. Rendell is extremely popular in the Philadelphia area and that would be very helpful to Obama if Rendell were on the ticket. Having Rendell on the ticket would almost guarentee an Obama win in Pennsylvania. Since Rendell is Jewish, he might help Obama in Florida. Obama might not do as well with Jewish voters as recent Democratic nominees but with Rendell on the ticket, that might not happen.

Ted Strickland: He is the governer of Ohio. That is another competitive state Obama must win in the fall. Strickland will be very helpful to Obama in that state. Another thing is that Strickland has the life story of a working class white in Ohio (Strickland's father was a steelworker who did not go to high school.) Strickland will help Obama with working class whites. That is a group Obama needs to do well with if he wants to be president. Strickland has some experience as he has been in the House for six terms before running for governer. Strickland seems to have the right experience but it might not be enough.

Tom Daschle: No one seems to talk about him as a possible VP candidate. He is an Obama supporter and the former majority leader in the Senate. He is experienced and we believe his the possible VP that Obama can trust the most. Daschle probably cannot deliever South Dakota to Obama and it has only 3 electoral votes anyway. Daschle's wife, Linda Daschle is a lobbyist and that might not go well for Obama since he will not take contributions from lobbyists.

Out of these three, we believe Strickland will be the biggest help to Obama. With the other possible VPs, he is right below Webb on the possibility list. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.

Will Texas be in Play?

All the focus of competitive states has been on states that were competitive in 2004. Now many pundits are talking about states such as Georgia and Mississippi with large African American populations being competitive. No one has ever mentioned Texas, though. The reason is that Texas's African American population is close to the national average and McCain should do well with Hispanics because moderate stances on immigration. Obama can generate a massive turnout of African Americans but that alone will not be enough to put Texas in play. But we have noticed many other factors that favor Obama.
Obama has an appeal to the highly educated so he will do well in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth mertoplex with rich people along with parts of Houston. The Democrat running against Cornyn for Senate is Rick Noreiga who is Hispanic. He could help Obama by generating a big Hispanic turnout while Obama helped him by bringing out the African Americans. The 2008 election seems to be resembling the statewide elections in 2002 in Texas. That year, Tony Sanchez who was Hispanic ran for governer against Rick Perry. Ron Klink was African American and ran against Cornyn. Sanchez lost by 18 points and Klink lost by 12 points. Hispanic turnout only increased significantly in Laredo where Sanchez came from and African American turnout only increased significantly in Dallas. The two reasons that those two Democrats lost were that they were not running for president and it was not a presidential election year. As it is an election year and Hispanic were about 30% of the Democratic primary voters on March 4th, they will probably turnout in higher numbers. Another thing is that Bush won Texas by 23 points but it would be narrower than that anyway because Bush was from there and would do better in Texas than a general Republican candidate. McCain will not be able to excite the religious conservatives like Bush did. These reasons make Texas be competitive.
A poll done by Rasmussen earlier this month showed McCain ahead of Obama by five points. That seems to be what we believe his lead is. Another poll done by Rasmussen a few weeks ago showed Cornyn with a lead of four points. That race will be close. Although Obama does face an uphill battle in Texas, it is a state where he should spend some time and money.
Please feel free to comment this post.

Obama/Edwards '08?

Is that possible? Although Edwards is not our number one pick for Obama's VP, he is on our list. We always believed that in the end, Edwards would endorse Obama over Clinton. Edwards teamed up with Obama in the debates with Hillary. His style of campaigning was closer to Obama's than Hillary's. But what will an Obama/Edwards ticket bring?
Edwards will help Obama among the working class. That is a group Edwards is popular with and Obama has been struggling to gain. This will be important in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Edwards could help Obama in North Carolina. It is true that Kerry did not do as well with these voters as Gore even with Edwards on the ticket. Also, Bush increased his popular vote margin in North Carolina over his in 2000. Here is why those two things happened, Edwards was not very prominent during the campaign. The focus was not on him. Obama could give Edwards to be more prominent and campaign in heavily working class areas in battleground states. If Edwards does have more prominence, he can make North Carolina become extremely close or even give the state to Obama. North Carolina will probably be close anyway due to the large African American population there which will probably turn out in record numbers for Obama along with the Universities. Obama will try to win South Carolina by creating a heavy turnout of African Americans but definiteky will be helped because Edwards was born there. Edwards's message is that there are two Americas, upper class and lower class and that the government ignores the lower class. It is similar to Obama's message of change and that we are one nation.
Not everything about having Edwards as VP will be positive. Edwards is young and exciting but he does not have much experience in politics. To get the experience factor smaller, Obama would need an experienced VP candidate. Another problem with putting Edwards on the ticket would be that he has already tried for that spot. Some voters may believe that Edwards already had his chance. But it might not be a very big deal because the VP spot is much smaller than the presidential spot. A small issue may be the $400 haircut. Republicans may say someone who pays that much for his hair would not be in touch with the ordinary American. That likely would not outweigh what Edwards has said about the ordinary American. None of this could be a factor because Edwards has said that he would not take the spot. Since this is politics, that may easily change but Republicans may use that against him. Many of these factors may not be a problem because there will probably not be much focus on Edwards if he is VP.
Alltogether, we believe Edwards will have a positive effect on the campaign if he is chosen. Due to the experience issue, we still believe Jim Webb is the best pick for Obama. We will soon post something about a possible VP for Obama we have not mentioned, Ted Strickland, the Governer of Ohio.
Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.

Recap of May 6th Primaries

Obama has taken North Carolina by 14 points with 90% of the precints reporting. That number is likely to hold. This took away Hillary's chance for a surprise win and gave Obama a chance to make up his loss in Pennsylvania by delegates and popular vote. Currently, Obama is leading by 212,000 votes. He won due to large margins in the counties containing the big cities and eastern North Carolina. They easily erased Hillary's small lead in western North Carolina.
Indiana is currently too close to call from most networks. Hillary has a 39,000 vote lead with 86% of the precints reporting. This race is closer than we expected. We expected for the race to be called for Hillary much earlier because exit polls showed her with a four point lead. Ohio which had the exit polls showing the same lead before votes came in gave Hillary a ten point win. Obama is running close due to carrying Marion County which contains Indainapolis by 61,000 votes. Since Marion County is about a quarter African American, we expected Obama's margin there to be narrower than his current lead of 34 points. Exit polls show high African American turnout and that is probably what happened in Indianapolis.
We believed that the current percentage margin in Indiana would be reached after Lake County which is in the Chicago media market and has 25% African American population had its votes counted. It will probably be awhile until all the votes are counted there. One reason it is slow is that there was high turnout in Lake County. Although we are currently giving Indiana to Hillary, her winning margin will probably be around 10,000 votes. It could be even narrower and with help from a few more precints in Bloomington and Indainapolis, what happened in Missouri might happen in Indiana.
One thing is certain, Hillary did not receive the win she needed in North Carolina and if she loses Indiana, she will be in big trouble. She cannot make the case Obama cannot win big states (If she calls New Jersey a big state, she must note North Carolina has more people.) The superdelegates will not come flocking to her side and Obama has proved that he can survive a strong attack. That attack was Reverand Wright.
Please feel free to comment on this post.

State Rankings for Hillary vs. McCain

These are how the states stand if Hillary somehow mamages to get the nomination. She will be not be competitive in many of the southern states that Obama could bring into play. She will have a better chace in Florida than Obama due to the large elderly population there. Hillary will not be as strong in the West as Obama. There will be less competitive states and we believe that except for a few exceptions such as Arkansas, this election will be alot like the ones in 2000 and 2004. One big problem for Hillary, if she gets the nomination, many African Americans may believe she stole the election from Obama and many might not vote or even go to McCain. The rules of the rankings will be the same with the McCain vs. Obama rankings. Now here are the rankings:


Solid Hillary (143 electoral votes)

California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)


Probably Hillary (29 electoral votes)

Conneticut (7) Delaware (3) Maine (4) New Jersey (15)


Leaning Hillary (34 electoral votes)

Arkansas (6) Michigan (17) Washington (11)


Toss Up (116 electoral votes)

Florida (27) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Wisconsin (10)

Leaning McCain (33 electoral votes)

Colorado (9) Missouri (11) Virginia (13)

Probably McCain (5 electoral votes)

West Virginia (5)

Solid McCain (178 electoral votes)

Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Georgia (15) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Lousiana (9) Mississippi (6) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3)Oklahoma (7) South Carolina (8) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) Wyoming (3)

Total: Hillary(206) McCain (216)

Even though McCain has a narrower lead against Hillary in the electoral vote count here, he has 178 electoral votes solidly for him. That's 35 more than Hillary's 143 solid votes. This shows that even though at first it appears that Hillary will have an easier time beating McCain the opposite is true.

Who will Win What States?

We are posting this list to show you the place where states stand for the general election. If a state is solid Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive now and probably will not be competitive. If a state is probably Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive currently but the states could become competitive later. If a state is leaning Dem. or Rep., this means that state is competitive but one party has a slight lead. If a state is a toss up, that means that state will be very competitive in the general and each party has a shot at winning that state. Here are the rankings for the states if Obama is running against McCain.

Solid Obama (143 electoral votes)

California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)

Probably Obama (18 electoral votes)
Delaware (3) Maine (4) Washington (11)


Leaning Obama (46 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Michigan (17) New Jersey (15) Oregon (7)


Toss up (108 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)

Leaning McCain (38 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Missouri (11)

Probably McCain (74 electoral votes)
Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Georgia (15) Kansas (6) Louisiana (9) Mississippi (6) North Carolina (15) South Carolina (8)

Solid McCain (115 electoral votes)
Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kentucky (8) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)

Total: Obama (207) McCain (227)

Many of the states that are probably McCain are states you might expect to be solid McCain. We put the southern states that are on there because Obama might be able to turn out a large number of African Americans. For Kansas, the governer might be Obama's VP. If Jim Webb is picked for VP, expect Virginia to move to lean Obama. Please feel free to share your thoughts.

The Republican's Solid South?

The South used to be heavily Democratic but since the civil rights movement, it has trended Republican. Now most political analysts say the Demcrats cannot win the general without winning the South. That is not true but the Democrats will have a tough time winning without the South. It seems that since 1968, the only Democrats to win states in the South are southern Democrats. They are able to win states in the South by attracting enough whites to their side to make thier large majority among African Americans give them the state. This time, it might be different. Virginia will be probably be a competitive state and Arkansas will if Hillary is on the ballot. Now we will say what might happen if Obama gets the nomination.
Obama will probably try to win the South in a different way. He will try to generate a massive African American turnout. Another big factor here is that many evangelicals do not like McCain. Some of them might be racist so they will not vote for Obama. Many might stay home which means turnout for McCain drops below 2004 turnout for Bush in the South and it rises for Obama in the south above the 2004 turnout for Kerry in the South. We believe that the state in the South, Obama has the strongest chance of winning is Virginia. That state is experiencing a Democratic trend. Democrats hold the governership, one house in the state legislature and one Senate seat. They will likely hold the other one now that Mark Warner is running for it. Northern Viriginia is trending Democratic quickly, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb could not have won without it. Also, Virginia's population is 19% African American. They will probably turn out in large numbers and Northern Virginia will go strongly for Obama. It will be much easier to win Virginia with Jim Webb on the ticket (see VP picks for Barack Obama.)
Virginia is not the only state Obama has a strong chance of winning. Mississippi and South Carolina are states that both have large percentages of African Americans. South Carolina has 29%, Mississippi has 36%. These two states also have large numbers of evangelicals. If many of them do not vote but the African Americans do, Obama could win those two states. Georgia holds the same possibility.
Not only will the massive African American turnout help Obama, it will help Democrats in downballot races. It will help Mary Landrieu, the Democratic Senator from Louisiana. It will help Democrats retain Bud Cramer's open seat in Alabama. It will help in other downballot races as well.
Even if Obama loses New Jersey and a few other states in the Northeast, he might be able to win a few marginal states in the west, Ohio and win with a few victories in the South. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.

The Last Term for the Senator from the Last Frontier?

Alaska's Senior Senator, Ted Stevens has been a Republican Senator from Alaska since 1968. He has won more than 60% of the vote in every election as a Senator since 1970. In 2002, he won 78% of the vote.
Stevens is now heading into hot water because the Democrats have found a very strong Democrat to challenge Stevens whose name is not Tony Knowles. The popular mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich is now close to Stevens in the polls. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Stevens leading by one point. 47% of the voters in Alaska view Stevens unfavorably, compared to Begich whom only 35% view him unfavorably. Stevens and Begich each have about 80% of their own party supporting them. The key to the closeness of this race is that Begich leads Stevens in independent voters by 23 points. This could be the key for Begich because the Democrats sucess in the 2006 midterms was mostly due to a much larger percentage of moderates voting Democratic than in 2004.
Why exactly, is Stevens in big trouble after blowing away all challengers for his seat in the past and him being in the Senate since 1968? The FBI raided his home due to an ethics charge and found the man in charge of fixng up Steven's home guilty of bribing government officials.
This is why that if Stevens does not run for reelection, they should not be as worried. But the Republicans will need to find a candidate like Sarah Palin, the current Republican governer of Alaska. She was virtually unknown when she ran but won by seven points against Tony Knowles.

If you have any thoughts on this race or our post, please tell us.

VP Picks for Barack Obama

If Barack Obama gets the nomination which is very likely, he will need to choose a vice presidential candidate. Here is a list of people Barack might be considering to pick for the VP spot.

Jim Webb, the Democratic Senator from Virginia. Jim Webb has alot of experience by being the Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. Jim Webb was a former Republican and is now a big opponent of the Iraq war. If Obama chose Webb, it would make it easier for Barack to win Virginia. Webb would help Obama on the experience issue. There are some downsides to choosing Jim Webb. He has attacked feminists and Webb once said that he has never met a woman he would trust to give combat leadership to men. That would not help gain women Democrats who are disenchanted with Barack and are supporting Hillary.

Hillary Clinton, Obama's rival in the race for the Democrats presidential nominee. The Democrats might be so strongly split between the two that the only way to mend the party would be to choose Hillary. She will certainly help Obama with the demographics that she carries. These two could be unbeatable. There are some downsides. There could be some voters who are leaning toward Obama but hate Hillary so much they will not vote for the Democratic ticket. That should not be the main problem. The main problem should be that Hillary might make big mistakes that would hurt Obama on purpose to make sure Obama loses but make sure she will be well posistioned to run in 2012. Even if Hillary does not do that, she will bring all her problems with her and the Republcians will attack that.

Joe Biden, the Senior Senator from Delaware. He is very experienced (he's been in the Senate since 1972.) and he does not have bad problems like Webb and the Clintons. If Obama chose Biden, he would make the experience factor not be a big issue. The problem is that Biden does not seem very exciting and Obama would not need someone who is viewed as boring.

Kathleen Sebelius, the popular governer of Kansas. She is a woman who is Catholic so she would help Obama in those groups. Those two groups are groups that mostly back Hillary. Sebelius would make Kansas competitive against John McCain. The problem with Sebelius is that she is not very experienced in foreign affairs.

Claire McCaskill, the Junior Senator of Missouri. She is a woman and Catholic like Sebelius. Also, McCaskill would make it easier for Obama to take Missouri. McCaskill may help Obama in white rural areas which she lost by ten points to Jim Talent in 2006. That margin was much smaller than her loss of 23 points in the 2004 gubernatorial race which made McCaskill able to capture Talent's Senate seat.

We believe the most likely pick would be Webb but it may easily change. If you have any thoughts about this list, feel free to comment it.