California Redistricting: What Could Have Happened

In late June of 2015, the marriage equality case was the Supreme Court case received the most attention. At the same time, the Supreme Court ruled that redistricting commissions (non elected people who are Democrats, Republicans and Independents) can draw redistricting maps. This works out well for Democrats because Republicans have recently drawn convoluted maps across the country including a map with 12-4 Republican districts in Ohio even though President Obama won Ohio in 2012. One district in Florida (drawn by Republicans) represents parts of Orlando and Jacksonville that are almost 200 miles away from each other. Also, if the Supreme Court ruled against the commission, Arizona which has a commission would have redrawn its map and given two seats to the Republicans. In California though, the Democrats would have had to do a mid decade redistricting.

My map shows what the Democrats could do if the Supreme Court ruled the commission unconstitutional and the Democrats performed mid decade redistricting. This map shores up many of their vulnerable incumbents who won close races in 2014. It is a 43-10 Democratic map. While the Democrats could try to draw a 45-8 map, that would cause them to create more convoluted lines and if "good Government groups" lobbied against a strong gerrymander, many Democrats  may decide to go for a map that does not have convoluted lines and mostly respects communities of interest while still increasing Democratic chances in four Republican held districts. Also, many Democratic incumbents will not want drastic changes in their district lines so I did not make major changes to Bay Area seats and many LA ones. I also followed the Voting Rights Act which requires districts to be drawn to elect Hispanic, African American and Asian representatives.

Overall, the map I drew aims to add four new Democratic seats without strongly violating communities of interest and having convoluted lines.

The current map is here and here

The current data is here:

Unless the district is listed below, there were no changes made.

New Map Data:

 (Northern California) 

New Data: (the new data is not as accurate for larger counties such as Los Angeles unless it is the 2008 election. Also, all percentages are based on the two party vote).

Sacramento Area: 

District 3: John Garamendi (D) Likely Democratic Purple
Political Data: (2012): Obama 56.5% (2008): Obama 57.1% (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 54.4%
Demographics 18+: W 54%, AA 6%, Asian 11%, H 24%

The 3rd district becomes a point more Democratic by losing all of Sacramento County and gaining part of Democratic leaning West Sacramento. Garamendi has successfully held this district in 2014 and should continue to represent it.

District 6 Doris Matsui (D) Safe Democratic Teal
Political Data: (2012): Obama 62.9% (2008) Obama 62.9% (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 63.3%
Demographics 18+: W 54%, AA 9%, Asian 12%, H 20%

The 6th district increases from 30% R to 37% R by adding the Citrus Heights area but remains safely Democratic.

District 7 Ami Bera (D) Likely Democratic Grey
Political Data: (2012): Obama 57.4% (2008): Obama 57.3%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 56.9%
Demographics 18+: W 51%, AA 10%, Asian 18%, H 16%

The 7th district becomes more Democratic by removing the Citrus Heights area and adding southern Sacramento. The 2008 Obama percentage increases from 52.7% to 57.3%, meaning Rep. Bera would have won by nine points in 2014. With the higher Democratic percentages, after 2016, the 7th district will no longer hold the title of the district with the most expensive congressional race.

Central California

District 10 Jeff Denham (R) Safe Republican Pink
Political Data: (2012): Obama 43.4%, (2008): Obama 43.1%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 37.8%
Demographics 18+: W 60%, AA 3%, Asian 12%, Hispanic 27%

The 10th district becomes more Republican at it loses  Democratic parts of Stanislaus County (Modesto) and gains heavily  Republican parts of Merced, Madera and Fresno Counties (including Clovis). Denham will have no trouble here.

District 16 Jim Costa (D) Likely Democratic Green
Political Data: (2012): Obama 61.2% (2008): Obama 60.9% (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 56.2%
Demographics 18+: W 35%, AA 4%, H 52%, Asian 7%

The 16th district undergoes major changes. It loses all of Fresno, parts of Merced County and gains Democratic leaning Tracy in San Joaquin County, Democratic leaning parts of Stanislaus County, Gilroy in Santa Clara County, San Benito County and heavily Hispanic parts of Monterey County. The 16th district is rated as "Likely Democratic" because Costa had a close race in a similar district in 2014 but the addition of Tracy (it has higher turnout) and Monterey County should  help protect Costa. Also, there is a chance State Sen. Anthony Cannella (R) who represents a district with similar lines may run but the district he represents is more Republican, making  the 16th district easier for Democrats to win.

Sidenote: Merced County is split under this map and Section 5 of the VRA prevents that but in 2013, Section 5 was found unconstitutional so I chose to split Merced County.

District 20 Sam Farr (D) Safe Democratic Pink
Political Data: (2012) Obama 70.0%, (2008): Obama 70.4%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 64.9%
Demographics 18+: W 47%, AA 3%, H 41%, Asian 6%

The 20th district undergoes a major change as it loses some heavily Hispanic parts of the Salinas Valley to the 16th district which has similar lines to SD-12. The 20th district then gains heavily Republican Kings County but remains strongly Democratic.

District 21 David Valadao (R) Tilt Democratic Dark Brown
Political Data: (2012) Obama 55.0%, (2008): Obama 54.8%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 53.4%
Demographics 18+: W 22%, AA 5%, H 67%, Asian 4%

The current 21st district voted for President Obama but is represented by a Republican because the Republican has a strong base in Kings County which has high turnout. Also, many of the rural Hispanic voters (especially in Fresno County) are swing voters. The Kern County part votes strongly Democratic however. The new 21st district removes all of Kings and western Fresno Counties and instead adds heavily Hispanic parts of Tulare county where Rep. Valadao does not have a base. Without his base in the district, Valadao may attract a strong challenger such as Assm. Salas who represents Democratic parts of Kern County. Also, the real Obama 2012 percentage is probably close to 57% due to the heavily Hispanic parts of the Central Valley swinging further to Obama than the rest of the counties it represents did.

District 22 Kevin McCarthy (R) vs. Devin Nunes (R) Safe Republican Brown
Political Data: (2012) Obama 35.4%, (2008): Obama 35.4%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Obama 34.0%
Demographics 18+ W 62%, AA 3%, H 28%, Asian 4%

The 22nd district gains heavily Republican parts of San Luis Obispo County and parts of Tulare County. By being the Majority Leader, McCarthy should be safe from a primary challenge from Rep. Nunes. Nunes may run in the 21st district but probably would lose to Valadao in a primary.

District 23 Open Likely Democratic
Political Data: (2012) Obama 59.5% (2008) Obama 59.8%, (2010 Gubernatorial): Brown 55.3%
Demographics 18+: W 28%, AA 6%, H 55%, Asian 9%

This new district represents heavily Hispanic parts of Fresno (city) as well as western Fresno County. With the strong anchor of Fresno City and more straight ticket urban Democrats, Democrats should be extremely favored here. If Rep. Costa stays in the 16th, Assm. Perea or Assembly candidate Arambula may consider this seat.

Southern California: 

District 24 Open Likely Democratic Dark Purple
Political Data: (2012) Obama 58.3%, (2008) Obama 60.6%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 52.7%
Demographics 18+: W 62%, A 2%, H 30%, Asian 5%

The 24th district loses Republican parts of San Luis Obispo County and gains Ventura in Ventura County, increasing the Democratic percentage by a few points. With a competitive congressional race brewing here, this change should make the district much more Democratic.

District 25 Steve Knight (R) Likely Democratic Tan/Pink
Political Data: (2008) Obama 56.7%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 50.3%
Demographics 18+: W 49%, AA 9%, H 32%, Asian 8%

The 25th district loses heavily Republican Simi Valley and Santa Clarita and instead traverses the San Gabriel Mountains and gains Burbank and part of Glendale. This area has high turnout even during midterms and I find it hard to see Burbank/Glendale voters ticket splitting for Knight, an Antelope Valley Republican.

LA Metropolitan Area

District 26 Julia Brownley (D) Likely Democratic
Political Data: (2008) Obama 57.7% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 49.5%
Demographics 18+: W 48%, AA 2%, H 39%, Asian 8%

The 26th district's partisanship stays stable as it loses Thousand Oaks and gains Simi Valley and Democratic leaning parts of the San Fernando Valley west of the 22. Brownley may want more Democratic votes but she won in 2014, a horrible year for Democrats against the Republican "dream" candidate. The district will only continue to trend Democratic as the Hispanic population increases. Brownley can continue to send her weekly fundraising emails.

District 28 Adam Schiff (D) Safe Democratic Pink Gray (representing Beverly Hills)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 75.6% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 70.6%
Demographics 18+: W 60%, AA 3%, H 20%, Asian 14%

The 28th district loses most of Burbank/Glendale and goes as far west as the 405 in the Westside. Schiff should be safe from a primary challenge but when he retires, I expect a major Westside battle for this seat.

District 29 Tony Cardenas (D) Safe Democratic Green/Gray (representing San Fernando Valley)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 75.9% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 72.6%
Demographics 18+: W 22%, AA 4%, H 63%, Asian 9%

A few minor changes. None of them should affect Cardenas.

District 30 Brad Sherman (D) Safe Democratic Orange/Pink (representing San Fernando Valley)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 62.9%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 55.1%
Demographics 18+: W 55%, AA 4%, H 26%, Asian 13%

Sherman helps the team out by gaining Republican leaning Santa Clarita. Sherman however should be safe with his San Fernando Valley base anchoring his district.

District 31 Pete Aguilar (D) Likely Democratic Light Yellow (representing San Bernardino)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 58.3%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 54.4%
Demographics 18+: W 34%, AA 11%, H 46%, Asian 8%

The 31st district mostly remains the same. It still leans Democratic and should continue to trend Democratic as the Hispanic population grows. Aguilar won here in 2014 so as long as two Republicans and another Democrat challenge him at the same time, he should be safe.

LA County 
District 33 Ted Lieu (D) Safe Democratic (Blue, representing LA Coast)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 63.0%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 53.8%
Demographics 18+: W 73%, AA 3%, H 11%, Asian 11%

If one Democrat is not happy with the map, Lieu might be that Democrat. The 33rd district loses all of the Westisde east of the 405 and gains Thousand Oaks which narrowly leans Republican. At the same time, the 33rd district gains all of Westchester. Seeing how Lieu won by 16 points in 2014, a Republican year, he should be safe but may have to campaign a little bit in Republican years.

District 35 Norma Torres (D) Safe Democratic Purple (representing San Bernardino County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 65.9%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 62.9%
Demographics 18+: W 20%, AA 7%, H 64%, Asian 8%

Besides a few minor changes, the district remains similar. Torres should be safe.

District 36 Raul Ruiz (D) Likely Democratic Orange (representing Riverside County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 53.8%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 48.8%
Demographics 18+: W 48%, AA 5%, H 41%, Asian 4%

Ruiz's district becomes two points more Democratic as it loses part of Hemet and gains part of Moreno Valley. I decided not to trade more of Hemet and Moreno Valley in order to prevent the 41st from being too convoluted. Anyway, Ruiz won by 8 points in 2014, a Republican year against a strong candidate (Assm. Nestande) showing that Ruiz is popular. Also, Brown in 2014 overperformed Obama in 2012, the only district where he did so in the Inland Empire, showing the 36th is trending Democratic very quickly.

District 37 Karen Bass (D) Safe Democratic Light Blue (representing Central LA)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 87.2%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 84.1%
Demographics 18+: W 26%, AA 26%, H 35%, Asian 10%

There are a few small changes but Bass's district remains one of the most Democratic in California and the country.

District 38 Linda Sanchez (D) Safe Democratic Turquoise (representing southeast LA County)
Political Data (2008) Obama 63.3% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 60.6%
Demographics 18+: W 22%, AA 3%, H 57%, Asian 17%

The 38th district gains heavily Hispanic precincts in La Habra and a few near Long Beach. Otherwise, it does not change and remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

Orange County/Inland Empire
District 39 Ed Royce (R) Safe Republican Light Tan (representing Orange County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 44.2%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 34.2%
Demographics 18+: W 54%, AA 2%, H 18%, Asian 23%

The 39th district becomes more Republican. It loses Democratic leaning Buena Park and southern Fullerton. It gains heavily Republican parts of southern Orange County. Royce should not have major problems.

District 41 Mark Takano (D) Safe Democratic Grey (representing Inland Empire)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 58.5%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 54.6%
Demographics 18+: W 33%, AA 8%, H 50%, Asian 7%

The 41st district becomes a point more Republican as it loses part of Moreno Valley to the 36th but the 58.5% Obama number should be enough to protect Takano.

District  42 Ken Calvert (R) Safe Republican Green (representing Inland Empire)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 43.9%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 37.5%
Demographics 18+: W 53%, AA 5%, H 30%, Asian 9%

The 42nd district gains part of Hemet and loses heavily Hispanic parts of Corona. It remains Republican by representing conservative parts of southern Riverside County.

District 43 Maxine Waters (D) Safe Democratic Light Pink (representing South LA area)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 75.6%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 71.8%
Demographics 18+: W 17%, AA 23%, H 42%, Asian 15%

The 43rd district gains a few Republican leaning precincts in Torrance to strengthen the 33rd but remains strongly Democratic.

District 44 Open (Nanette Barragan (D) vs. Isadore Hall (D)) Safe Democratic Dark Pink (representing Compton)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 81.7% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 80.3%
Demographics 18+: W 11%, AA 17%, H  63%, Asian 7%

The 44th district becomes a point more Republican by gaining marginal precincts in Long Beach to shore up the 47th district.

District 45 John Campbell (R)? Leans Democratic Light Blue (representing Orange County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 56.6% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 46.1%
Demographics 18+: W 45%, AA 2%, H 30%, Asian 21%

The 45th district is the 2nd Democratic district in Orange County. It is a combination of Rohrabacher and Campbell's seats. It represents half of heavily Hispanic Santa Ana, Democratic leaning parts of Costa Mesa, Democratic leaning Irvine and Laguna Beach. Some may argue that this seat leans Republican due to Brown receiving 46% here in 2010. Part of that can be attributed to Whitman performing extremely well with high income voters (it is unknown but likely that Brown won this district in 2014). The major ticket splitters in Orange County are the Vietnamese voters mainly located in Garden Grove and Westminister  which are in the Republican 48th district. The Asian voters in Irvine and the  Hispanic voters in Santa Ana are less likely to ticket split, therefore preventing a scenario similar to SD-34 where the Vietnamese voters overwhelmingly supported Janet Nguyen (R) even though many of them backed President Obama in 2012 as shown by data from Garden Grove, a heavily Vietnamese community in SD-34 but not in the 45th district. Former Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang could be a strong fit for this district. Also, with Democrats winning narrowly Democratic leaning districts with high  numbers of upscale White voters in CA-26 and CA-52, it shows that these voters who voted Republican in the early 2000s are open to voting for Democrats on a congressional as well as Presidential level.

District 46 Open Safe Democratic Brown (representing Central Orange County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 58.7% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 53.6%
Demographics 18+ W 25%, AA 2%, H 56%, Asian 15%

The 46th district becomes more Republican as it loses part of heavily Democratic Santa Ana and gains less Democratic southern Fullerton and Buena Park. While Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) may not run for House because she is running for Senate (even after he "wha wha wha wha" moment where she "mimicked" Native Americans). Lou Correa (D) has expressed interest in this seat. The 15% Asian population is primarily Vietnamese but it is not large enough to make an impact even with ticket splitting as the 2010 race showed.

District 47 Alan Lowenthal (D) Likely Democratic Light Grey (representing Long Beach)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 58.9% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 49.8%
Demographics 18+: W 50%, AA 8%, H 26%, Asian 13%

The 47th district loses Garden Grove and gains most of Huntington and Newport Beaches which are Republican. At  the same time, the 47th district gains some heavily Hispanic areas in western Long Beach. The Orange County portion of the district is Republican but the addition of the Hispanic precincts in Long Beach should help counterbalance it. Also, Lowenthal won the 47th district in 2014 by 12 points, showing he can win this district even in a Republican year.

District 48 Vacant Dana Rohrabacher (R)? Safe Republican Orange/Brown (representing Orange County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 45.9% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 39.9%
Demographics 18+: W 42%,  AA 2%, H 23%, Asian 31%

Do not be fooled by the high percentage of minorities in the 48th district. This district is solidly Republican by combining heavily Republican parts of Fullerton with heavily Republican parts of Huntington Beach and heavily Vietnamese Garden Grove. Rohrabacher would probably prefer to run here instead of the 47th which has much of his current territory. The 48th district is much more Republican than the 47th and does not have an incumbent.

District 49 Darrell Issa (R) Safe Republican Brown (representing North County)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 47.6%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 37.6%
Demographics 18+: W 65%, AA 3%, H 22%, Asian 8%

Issa's district becomes a few points more Republican. The former car thief will be safe.

San Diego:

District 50 Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) Safe Republican (light blue)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 40.3%,(2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 33.7%
Demographics 18+: W 63%, AA 2%, H 26%, Asian 6%

A few minor tweaks but the district remains one of the most Republican in California.

District 51 Juan Vargas (D) Safe Democratic (brown)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 65.1%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 62.0%
Demographics 18+: W 20%, AA 7%, H 62%, Asian 9%

A few tweaks here too. The district remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

District 52 Scott Peters (D) Safe Democratic (green)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 60.8%, (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 50.3%
Demographics 18+: W 65%, AA 3%, H 12%, Asian 17%

The 52nd district becomes more Democratic as it loses Republican leaning areas in northern San Diego and gains neighborhoods near Downtown. These changes would meant that Peters would have won in 2014 by double digits. He should be fine with the 60.8% Obama numbers and this should deter major Republican challengers.

District 53 Susan Davis (D) Safe Democratic (white)
Political Data: (2008) Obama 61.6% (2010 Gubernatorial) Brown 55.5%
Demographics 18+: W 46%, AA 8%, H 29%, Asian 14%

The district becomes a few points more Republican but should remain strongly Democratic and safe for Rep. Davis.

Competitive California Congressional Districts

My last analysis of the California Congressional Districts was in May before the top two primary elections which will determine the two candidates who will face each other in the congressional elections in November 6th, 2012. The Republican turnout in these primaries was higher, mostly because it seemed that there were more competitive primaries on the Republican side, especially in Southern California. Also, the Los Angeles area Democrats did not turn out strongly because there were few competitive primaries in the heavily Democratic districts there such as CA-37 but Republicans had more competitive primaries in conservative districts such as CA-08. Another reason for the low Democratic turnout in Southern California is that many of the voters there are sporadic voters and tend to vote in high turnout elections such as the 2008 Presidential election or the 2010 Gubernatorial election. Democratic turnout though was high in Northern California where Marin County for example voted 76% Democratic while statewide the congressional races voted 51% Democratic and in 2008, Obama won 78% of the vote in Marin while winning 61% statewide. Low turnout for the Democrats caused problems such as CA-31 which is a swing districts but the top two vote getters were Republicans, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) lost by 2 points there but in 2014, this seat will be a prime pickup opportunity. The primary elections though did shed some light on other competitive races, such as CA-52 which usually leans Republican locally but the primary results suggest it may lean more Democratic.

Anyway, this analysis will only examine races that are competitive or potentially competitive. This analysis will not examine races such as CA-13 where Rep. Barbara Lee (D) is easily winning reelection or CA-37 where Rep. Karen Bass (D) is winning easily too in her 84% Obama district. The post will examine races pundits expect to be close such as CA-10, CA-26 and CA-52 for example. 

Anyway, here is my past post on the California Congressional Districts: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/05/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html

Here is my map of the competitive districts

This map is courtesy of 270towin where I changed the district colors. 

CA-03

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/03.png (district demographics and partisan data. Each link next to the district summary has the demographics and partisan info.) 

The competitive primary here was on the Republican side, yet Garamendi won a majority with 53% of the vote in this district without general election turnout from UC Davis. Also, the competitive primary was on the Republican side instead of the Democratic side. This 55% Obama district should be considered a Tossup but Garamendi is a good fit for this district because of his understanding of agricultural issues which are important in the northern part of the district. Also, his opponent Kim Dolbow Vann (R) is from the northern part of the district so it should be harder for her to make inroads in the southern part of the district which is heavily Democratic. He seems to be pulling away pretty strongly here.

Likely Democratic

CA-07

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/07.png 

This race should be one of the most competitive and close races in this election cycle. It contains the Sacramento suburbs which used to be strongly Republican but have been trending Democratic recently. Democrats have gained the two State Assembly seats in the Sacramento suburbs, gaining one in 2010 which was the only seat they gained in the State Assembly that year. Democratic challenger Ami Bera (D) has outraised Lungren but Lungren is raising money quickly too which shows he will not be caught napping. Lungren beat Bera by 10 points in the June 5th Primary but the June 5th Primary is not a good indicator of the general election because Bera was assured a spot in the top two primary so Democrats did not need to turn out extra heavily to support him. Also, a poll from the Hill in late August showed a tied race but Bera’s favorables were +4 higher than Lungren’s.

Tossup

CA-08

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/08.png

Gregg Imus (R) and Assemblyman Paul Cook (R) are facing each other in this extremely red district covering exurbs in San Bernardino County and the desert. There have been no polls in this heavily Republican district and Imus won 16% of the vote to Cook’s 15% in the primary so both candidates are close. Cook though seems to have the slight advantage because he has outraised Imus 4-1 but there have been no polls on this race so it is difficult to tell who is leading. Until a new poll is released, I will give Cook the advantage.

Lean Cook

CA-09

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/09.png

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) did well in the top two primary against Ricky Gill (R) and since the primary had lower Democratic turnout than the general election usually does, especially in the valley, this is a good sign for McNerney. Although Gill has been a strong fundraiser, McNerney is no slouch either when it comes to fundraising. Also, Gill’s experience is an issue because Gill is in his mid 20s and is a UC Berkeley law student. Even though Gill has money and moderate views, McNerney has faced tough races before and won. McNerney even won in 2010 in a more Republican district so if McNerney can survive 2010, he should be able to survive 2012.

Lean Democratic

CA-10

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/10.png

This district voted 50-47 for Obama which in California means a Republican leaning district because Republicans tend to over perform in down ballot races. Also, the Republican candidate is State Sen. Jeff Denham (R) who frequently won in a Democratic leaning district. The Democrats though found a strong candidate in former Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D). He has received strong financial backing from the DCCC and is a strong campaigner. He has a strong slogan saying how Washington is full of lawyers who know how to argue but he is an engineer who knows how to solve problems instead of just arguing about them. He also mentions his agricultural roots and his hard work to become an astronaut which is an inspiring life story. A poll was released showing Hernandez leading by 2. Although it is from the DCCC, it shows Obama leading Romney by 1 which is similar to Obama’s 3 point lead in 2008 so there may not be much oversampling of Democrats. Therefore, I am moving this race to Tossup from Lean Republican.

Tossup

CA-15

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/15.png

Rep. Pete Stark (D) has been a representative in Congress since the 1970s when he ran as the young candidate challenging an elderly incumbent. The tables are reversed this time though with

Eric Swalwell (D) running as the young candidate challenging the elderly incumbent. Recently, Stark came under fire for recent gaffes so Swalwell has a strong shot. Also, the redrawn district added areas Stark is unfamiliar with the voters such as Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and San Ramon. These areas are less liberal than Hayward and Union City which Stark has always represented. Swalwell is hoping to capitalize on support in the inland areas to beat Stark. Stark won 42% of the vote to Swalwell’s 36% so Swalwell has room to grow.

Tossup between Swalwell and Stark.

CA-21

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/21.png

This race is one where Hispanic Chamber of Commerce member David Hernandez (D) has underrated chances. State Assemblyman David Valadao (R) performed well in the primary, winning 57% of the vote. At a first glance, this suggests that Valadao should win easily but I expect a much closer race. The reason is that Hispanic turnout which should favor Hernandez was extremely low in this district during the primary. Low Hispanic turnout in the primary was felt in other areas too. Grace Napolitano's (D) district for example was heavily Hispanic and had much lower turnout than usual. In most elections though, Hispanic turnout is higher in the general which should help Hernandez. If it rises really strongly, then Hernandez should have a shot but for now, the race is Lean Republican.

Lean Republican

CA-24

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/24.png

Rep. Lois Capps (D) the incumbent did not do well in the primary because she won less than 50% of the vote, suggesting former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (R) has a shot. The problem in the primary was that UCSB had very low turnout like it did in 2010. Obama however seems to have regained excitement with young voters so he should be able to turnout voters there. I expect Capps to win. Also, Capps has won tough races before including in the 90s when her district had similar lines and was less Democratic.

Lean Democratic

CA-26

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/26.png

This race is definitely one of the most if not the most competitive race in the state. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faces State Senator Tony Strickland (R) for the seat which covers all of Ventura County except heavily Republican Simi Valley. Brownley faced Strickland and Ventura Supervisor Linda Parks (I) in the primary but Parks received 3rd place so Brownley will be competing against Strickland. Brownley has attacked Strickland for his views on a woman’s right to choose and contraception in this district with many suburban women who are swing voters. The Thousand Oaks and Camarillo areas are more fiscally conservative but Democrats have an opening on social issues. Brownley has been sending out mailers too which worked for her in the primary. Emily's List has been involved in the race too and sent out many mailers as well.  A recent poll showed Brownley ahead. This is a very competitive race but I would give Brownley the slight edge because Strickland just seems too conservative for the district.

Tossup/Tilt Democratic

CA-30

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/30.png

The battle of the titans it is! Democratic Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) are running in the same district. At first, Berman seems to have the advantages because he has received endorsements from almost all of the high profile Democrats. Sherman though has outraised Berman $3.5 million to $2.7 million and his old district covered 58% of this one compared to 20% for Berman. Also, Sherman won 42% of the vote in the primary compared to Berman’s 32%. Berman though has tried to win the 1/3 of the district which votes Republican by receiving endorsements from Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa (R) from the San Diego area. Trying to win over Republicans though may hurt Berman so I am going to give the race to Lean Sherman for now.

Lean Sherman

CA-31

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/31.png

Democrats had a chance to win this district with Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D) but other Democratic candidates stole votes from him so he could not make it to the top two. The Democrats mostly focused on helping Julia Brownley in CA-26 and while they got her into the top two, they did not focus on this race. The two Republican candidates are State Senator Bob Dutton (R) and Rep. Gary Miller (R) who is carpetbagging. In 2014, Democrats will have a good chance to win this 56% Obama district but Dutton is trying to win over Democrats. He has announced a few endorsements from Democrats but Miller has an advantage because he has support of the national Republicans as well as more money.

Lean Miller

CA-36

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/36.png

Mary Bono Mack (R) is moderate and very popular in this district. She has won close elections in 2008 and 2010, even while the Democrats had a strong candidate in Steve Pougent (D) the mayor of Palm Springs. The Democrats found another strong candidate though with Dr. Raul Ruiz (D). He is a doctor and the first Hispanic to receive three graduate degrees from Harvard. Bono Mack though seemed to be leading because Obama only won 50-47 here and she had moderate views. A recent poll showed her ahead by only 3 so if there is a Democratic mini wave; this will be one of the seats that shifts enough for us to win. Also, Bono Mack recently referred to Coachella which is in her district as a “third world toilet,” which should cost her some votes. I am going to keep this race at lean Republican for now but I am very tempted to move this to tossup if I see another poll showing a close race.

Lean Republican

CA-41

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/41.png

This district in Riverside County voted 59% for Obama and has a high Hispanic population but the Republican candidate Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) is running a competitive campaign here. The Democrats have a strong candidate too though in Mark Takano (D) who is openly gay and ran for a similar seat in 1992 and lost by less than 1 percent. Being openly gay may not play well with the large number of socially conservative voters in the district (the district voted strongly for Prop 8,) but Takano’s campaign skills and the district’s Democratic lean should be enough to help him.

Lean Democratic

CA-44

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/44.png

Rep. Laura Richardson (D) and Rep. Janice Hahn (D) face off in this district. Although Hahn’s current congressional district only has a small portion of the new 44^th, her former city council district covered a large part of the 44^th so many voters here are familiar with her. Richardson though is in trouble due to ethics issues. Also, she has run racially divisive campaigns in her primaries which will make it hard for her to win over the 68% Hispanic population in the district. Hahn though is popular in the Hispanic community and she won in the primary with 60% of the vote. Richardson is in trouble.

Safe Hahn

CA-47

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/47.png

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) faces Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R). This race at first seemed competitive, despite the district’s Democratic lean because Lowenthal had trouble raising money. Lowenthal though seems to have stepped up his fundraising and polls show him leading DeLong. This district also should have high turnout in the Long Beach portion in the 2012 election, cancelling out the Republican leaning areas in Orange County.

Likely Democratic

CA-52

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/52.png

This is another extremely competitive race in California. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is a moderate Republican who represented a 51% Obama district but redistricting increased it to 55%. The Democrats also have a strong candidate in Scott Peters (D) who is the Port Commissioner for San Diego and the former City Council President. Peters has been running a strong campaign and has been attacking Bilbray over his career as a lobbyist and receiving two taxpayer funded pensions. No polls have been released on this race but due to the district’s Democratic lean and Peters’s strong campaign skills, Peters has a slight advantage but not enough to move it out of tossup. Also, Peters received the endorsement of the Independent San Diego Mayoral candidate who was a former Republican.

Tossup

California State Senate Races Guide and Analysis

In 2011, the California Redistricting Commission redrew California's Congressional lines, California's Senate lines and California's Assembly lines. The California Redistricting Commission is a group of five Democrats, five Republicans and four Decline to States who worked together to draw lines that combine communities of interest and create competitive districts. California's bipartisan incumbent protection plan in 2002 eliminated competitive districts. No seats in the California State Senate changed hands from 2004 to the 2010 elections. Currently, the State Senate map is being sued in court but most pundits believe the California Supreme Court will uphold the map. Many of my earlier posts on California's redistricting maps here: analyzed the communities of interest aspect of the map. This new post though will analyze the partisanship of the new California State Senate seats. Control of the California State Senate is important because if the Democrats gain 27 Senate seats, they will have the 2/3 Senate majority needed to pass a tax increase. The Democrats used to need a supermajority to pass a budget but in 2010, Proposition 25 passed which allowed a simple majority to pass a budget. Before 2010, the State Legislature would not pass a budget until late in the year around October, instead of in June when the deadline is. Another fact about California's Senate seats is that only the odd number seats are up in 2012. Of those 20 seats up in 2012, Democrats hold 11 of them and need to win 13 of them in order to gain the 2/3 majority in the Senate. In 2012, the redistricting suggests that they can gain the two seats they need. The 2001 map for California protected many of the State Senators, preventing any partisan turnover in the State Senate since 2004. Anyway, here are the Senate races.

Link to new California Senate maps: http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/california-state-senate/

California's 1st State Senate District: Ted Gaines (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 79% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 1st district represents the Mother Lode Country in the Sierras and the mountainous northern part of the state. This district should elect Republicans easily.

California's 3rd State Senate District: Lois Wolk (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 66%, McCain 31%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 34%
Demographics: 8% African American, 11% Asian, 25% Hispanic, 52% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Wolk's district gains the Napa area and part of Sonoma County but she remains anchored in Yolo County. Her district is also still strongly Democratic.

California's 5th State Senate District: Tom Berryhill (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 47%, Whitman 46%
Demographics: 6% African American, 12% Hispanic, 38% Hispanic, 40% White
Status: Tossup

Most of Berryhill's current district is further south in the Central Valley but his home is in the new 5th district which represents all of San Joaquin County and part of Stanislaus County so he may run here although Obama and Brown won the district. The confirmed Republican candidate is Leroy Ornellas (R), the San Joaquin County Supervisor. The Democratic candidate is State Assembly member Cathleen Galgiani (D) who represented parts of San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced Counties. She has been a strong advocate for high speed rail and placed Proposition 1A on the ballot in 2008 which allowed California to build a high speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Also, she is a strong advocate of water for farmers, an important issue in the Central Valley. This district is a swing district but is trending Democratic quickly. Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) won his congressional race in 2010 in similar territory so the voters may decide to choose Galgiani.

California's 7th State Senate District: Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 53%, Whitman 41%
Demographics 18+: 6% African American, 14% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 59% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses territory along the Bay and represents inland suburbs. Although this area was once swing territory, it has trended Democratic very quickly and the cities of Pittsburg and Antioch help keep the district fully in the Democratic column.

California's 9th State Senate District: Lori Hancock (D) vs. Sandre Swanson (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 86%, McCain 11%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 83%, Whitman 12%
Demographics 18+: 19% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 35% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The district remains heavily Democratic but the primary challenge between Hancock and Swanson looks extremely competitive. Swanson was endorsed by Rep. Barbara Lee (D) from the southern part of the district while George Miller (D) endorsed Hancock. Both candidates have strong support from labor and the candidates dislike each other so this race will be extremely competitive.

California's 11th State Senate District: Mark Leno (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 82%, McCain 14%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 77%, Whitman 17%
Demographics 18+: 6% African American, 36% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 41% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This district represents San Francisco and Daly City. No Republican should win this district and State Senator Mark Leno (D) who is extremely popular should keep this district easily.

California's 13th State Senate District: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 73%, McCain 24%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 64%, Whitman 31%
Demographics 18+: 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 51% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Jerry Hill (D) is a State Assembly member from northern San Mateo County running for the new State Senate district against State Assembly member Sally Lieber (D) from the Mountain View area. They are both popular State Assembly members but I expect Jerry Hill to win because of his strong organization and his endorsements from people such as Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (D).

California's 15th State Senate District: Jim Beall (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 67%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 59%, Whitman 35%
Demographics 18+: 30% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 37% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This district which represents most of San Jose and its southern suburbs around Campbell and Los Gatos should easily vote Democratic. Jim Beall is the current 24th District Assembly member and should have no trouble winning the district.

California's 17th State Senate District: Open (R held)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 33%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 56%, Whitman 37%
Demographics 18+: 26% Hispanic, 61% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 17th district was formerly the 15th district held by Sam Blakeslee (R) who was moderate and represented a 59% Obama district. The addition of all of Santa Cruz County though increases the Obama percentage from 59% to 64% which made the terrain for Sam Blakeslee more difficult. He therefore decided not to run and with no top tier Republican running, Democrats will probably win the seat. State Assembly member Bill Monning (D) has announced his candidacy and assuming no primary challenge arises, he should win the district easily.

California's 19th State Senate District: Open (R-held)
Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 37%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 43%
Demographics 18+: 6% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 48% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 19th district is currently represented by Tony Strickland (R) who lives in Ventura County but the district has become four points more Democratic as Oxnard was added to the district. Tony Strickland is not running for reelection though so Democrats have a great shot at picking up this seat which Strickland won by only one point against State Assemblymember Hannah Beth Jackson (D) when it voted 56% for Obama, not 60%. The candidates include Jason Hodge (D), the Commissioner of the Oxnard Harbor District and a firefighter and Hannah Beth Jackson is also running again for the seat. The Republican candidate is Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker (R). Both Jason Hodge and Hannah Beth Jackson are strong candidates. Jason Hodge is viewed as a rising star who is likable and young while Jackson is an experienced politician who has won "legislator of the year" awards from NOW and LCV. The Democratic primary should be extremely close due to the strengths of both candidates.

California's 21st State Senate District: Open (R-held)
Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 50%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 38%, Whitman 50%
Demographics 18+: 11% African American, 5% Asian, 36% Hispanic, 45% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district which represents Los Angeles suburbs in northern Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties may be close and trending Democratic nationally but are still heavily Republican at a local level. Assemblyman Steve Knight (R) from Palmdale is running for the seat and will probably win.

California's 23rd State Senate District: Bill Emmerson (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 50%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 40%, Whitman 50%
Demographics 18+: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 33% Hispanic, 51% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district is also strongly Republican at a local level. It represents the outer suburbs in the Inland Empire and does not include the more Democratic parts of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. State Senator Bill Emmerson should be reelected easily in this district.

California's 25th State Senate District: Carol Lieu (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 36%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics 18+: 5% African American, 14% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 55% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 25th State Senate district represents the Foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Although a few areas in the eastern part of the district such as Upland lean Republican, the Pasadena and Burbank areas help keep the district safe for Lieu

California's 27th State Senate District: Fran Pavley (D) vs. Todd Zink (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 47%, Whitman 47%
Demographics 18+: 11% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 61% White
Status: Lean Democratic

This district combines the heavily Democratic west San Fernando Valley with the Republican leaning Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley in Ventura County into the same district. State Senator Fran Pavley (D) is the Democratic candidate with a strong chance of winning the seat. She has represented the southern portion of the district and has been a strong environmental advocate, winning the "Legislator of the year" award from Californians against Waste and the "Global Warming Leadership award" from the California League of Conservation voters. The Republican candidate is Attorney Todd Zink (R) who was a former marine. Due to Fran Pavley's connections in the district and the district's Democratic lean, Fran Pavley should probably win but the race could be close because Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks may have been close in the Presidential election but they vote strongly Republican at the local level.

California's 29th State Senate District: Bob Huff (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 39%, Whitman 53%
Demographics 18+: 28% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 35% White
Status: Safe Republican

The district may be trending Democratic in areas such as Fullerton but for now it is heavily Republican and should elect State Senator Bob Huff (R) easily.

California's 31st State Senate District: Open (New District)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 48%, Whitman 43%
Demographics 18+: 9% African American, 8% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 33% White
Status: Lean Democratic

This new district containing Democratic leaning northern Riverside County has a strong chance of being picked up by a Democrat. State Assemblyman Jeff Miller (R) from the Corona area is planning to run. He is strong on transportation and law and order issues. As for the Democrat, State Assemblyman Steve Clute (D) is the candidate. This district leans Democratic but if Jeff Miller campaigns strongly, he has a shot at winning this seat.

California's 33rd State Senate District: Ricardo Lara (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 21%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 69%, Whitman 22%
Demographics 18+: 10% African American, 7% Asian, 66% Hispanic, 16% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This seat is safely Democratic but at first it seemed that the primary would be competitive. Young and openly gay State Senator Ricardo Lara (D) from Commerce was planning to face a tough primary with State Assembly member Bonnie Lowenthal (D), the wife of State Senator Alan Lownethal (D) from Long Beach who is running for Congress in the 47th district (see my post on the California Congressional districts for more info on that race.) Bonnie Lowenthal withdrew from the race though after Ricardo Lara received high profile endorsements from the California Nurses Association and Linda Sanchez. This seat should be safe for Ricardo Lara.

California's 35th State Senate District: Roderick Wright (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 20%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 72%, Whitman 21%
Demographics 18+: 22% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 11% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This seat should be heavily Democratic and safe for Wright as it contains heavily Democratic areas in the Los Angeles area.

California's 37th State Senate District: Mimi Walters (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 49%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 34%, Whitman 58%
Demographics 18+: 18% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 59% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district representing central Orange County is trending Democratic as Irvine becomes Democratic quickly but the district's Republican roots keep it heavily Republican at a local level. Walters may have lost her statewide run for State Treasurer but she should win this district easily.

California's 39th State Senate District:
Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 36%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 43%
Demographics 18+: 15% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 62% White
Status: Likely Democratic

This district voted strongly for Obama but in 2008, Obama overperformed strongly in San Diego County so his numbers are a bit overstated here. Former State Assemblymember George Plescia (R) has announced his candidacy for the seat and he is facing Democratic State Assembly member Marty Block (D). As the Whitman percentage shows, Republicans can come close in this district but the district's Democratic trend should be enough to push Marty Block over the top.

Analysis of California's Congressional Districts (January Edition)

This post is my January 2012 analysis of California's congressional districts. My November 2012 analysis before the November 6th 2012 election is here and my analysis of the 2014 races is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2013/03/california-congressional-districts-2014.html


The redistricting season is winding down as states finalize their maps. Most of my future posts will involve analyzing election races, including this post which analyzes California's congressional races.

On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Independents to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. They approved the final maps in mid August. Also, this is the first election year where all California Congressional elections will have a top two primary where all candidates run in the June primary and the top two vote getters advance to the general election on November 6th.
I posted an earlier analysis of California's new congressional districts here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/analysis-of-californias-proposed.html but this version is different because it analyzed the 1st draft of California's redistricting maps. This new version here analyzes California's Congressional districts after the Commission approved the final maps. Instead of focusing on communities of interest, this analysis will mostly focus on the congressional races themselves and which party is likely to win them. Overall, the Commission’s new Congressional map produces 28 Safe Democratic seats, four Likely Democratic seats, five Lean Democratic seats, two Tossup seats, two Lean Republican seats and 12 Safe Republican seats. This totals to 37 seats expected to vote Democratic with 14 seats expected to vote Republican for Congress, suggesting Democrats could win 3-5 seats under California’s new map.

A few notes: CVAP represents the citizen voting age population.
Here are the maps of the districts drawn in 2002: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=CA
Here are the maps of the new districts: http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/california-congressional-delegation/

California's 1st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 53%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 53%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 79% White
Safe Republican

Rep. Wally Herger (R) recently announced his retirement here. State Senator Doug LaMalfa (R) will probably run here. He should have no trouble winning reelection in this heavily rural and Republican district representing the Sierras and the Central Valley in Northern California.

California's 2nd Congressional District: Open (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 73% White
Safe Democratic

This district which represents Marin County and the North Coast is heavily Democratic so it should not elect a Republican. The Democratic Primary though has been extremely competitive. Four Marin County Democrats are running including State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D), Progressive activist Norman Solomon (D), Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), and entrepreneur Stacy Lawson (D). The lone Republican is business owner Dan Roberts (R). Most polls have showed Huffman in the lead with Solomon as the close second. Due to California's top two primary systems, two Democrats can run against each other in the general election so Solomon is trying to run to the left of Huffman. The strategy seems to be working because most polls show Solomon in 2nd place. Also, Solomon has gained endorsements from progressives such as Raul Griljava (D) from Arizona. The question is how important will these endorsements be in the 2nd district. Huffman has received endorsements from State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and three former State Assembly members who represented parts of the 2nd district. As for Adams, her campaign theme of healthy communities and healthy families is appealing but she needs to get more endorsements. Also, for more details on the race for the 2nd district, read my post here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/11/candidates-forum-for-californias-2nd.html

California's 3rd Congressional District: John Garamendi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 42%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 43%
Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 51% White
Lean Democratic

Garamendi used to represent inland Contra Costa County as well as Fairfield in Solano County but his district is now more Republican with the addition of Sutter, Yuba, Colusa and Glenn Counties. Although Obama and Brown still won the district, the Republican areas in the district's northern part make the district competitive. The Republican field consists of Sutter County District Attorney Tony Carlos (R) and Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann (R). Carlos will be a strong candidate in the general election because of his moderate views on immigration in a district where Hispanics are 16% of the CVAP (Citizen Voting Age population.) He can make inroads among the Hispanic voters in Solano County where Garamendi needs to win large margins in order to win. Carlos may be too moderate for voters in the primary because the Republican electorate in the 3rd district is very conservative. As for Vann, most pundits consider her the frontrunner. I see Garamendi winning though because Vann's primary campaign theme is agricultural issues. Those issues are important to voters in the northern part of the district but if Vann wants to win, she needs to make inroads in Solano County and agriculture is less important there. Also, Obama's presence on the ticket should increase turnout in Yolo County where Garamendi needs a strong turnout to win.

California's 4th Congressional District: Tom McClintock (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 78% White
Safe Republican

McClintock gains new territory in the Central Sierras but the new territory is rural and Republican like the rest of his district. He should have no trouble winning reelection here.

California's 5th Congressional District: Mike Thompson (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 26% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 53% White
Safe Democratic

Thompson faces unfamiliar territory by gaining Santa Rosa and the Martinez area. Although Rep. George Miller (D) lives in Martinez, he should run in the nearby district containing Richmond and Concord. Thompson should be safe from a primary challenge though and the 70% Obama number should ensure his reelection against a Republican.

California's 6th Congressional District: Doris Matsui (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 13% African American, 27% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 39% White
Safe Democratic

Matsui's district remains similar to its current form. It is still heavily Democratic and safe for her.

California's 7th Congressional District: Dan Lungren (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 8% African American, 14% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic

In its 2006 edition, the Almanac of American Politics called Lungren's district safely Republican but in the last few years, the district's demographics have changed as the Sacramento suburbs have trended Democratic quickly. The Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010 and Democratic candidate Dr. Ami Bera (D) came within seven points of unseating Lungren in 2010, a heavily Republican year. Across the state, Jerry Brown (D) underperformed Obama statewide but in the Sacramento suburbs, he matched Obama's percentages. Also, Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010, further evidence the area is trending Democratic. The commission also decreased McCain's percentage in Lungren's district from 49% to 46%. This race should be very competitive because Bera is running again and he is a strong fundraiser (he outraised Lungren in 2010.) Also, 2012 should be more favorable to the Democrats than 2010 was.

California's 8th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 36%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 35% Hispanic, 50% White
Safe Republican

The 42% Obama percentage makes this district too Republican to elect a Democrat in the foreseeable future so the Republican primary will be the important contest in this race. Candidates for the 8th district include Victorville city councilwoman Angela Valles (R), Victorville mayor Ryan McEachron (R) and Hesperia city councilman Bill Jensen (R). Jensen plans to run on the tea party platform while Eachron seems to have a more moderate platform. He does not mention the tea party once on his website. Although the 8th district's Republicans are mostly conservative, the conservative candidates could split the vote, allowing McEachron to consolidate the less conservative Republicans and win the nomination.

California's 9th Congressional District: Jerry McNerney (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 51%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 37% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Likely Democratic

McNerney has consistently faced close elections in the current 11th district which voted for Obama by nine points. In the 9th district though, Obama won by 15 points so McNerney will be much safer here. The district becomes more Democratic because it gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Stockton and Antioch. 24 year old law student Ricky Gill (R) plans to challenge McNerney and has already raised $800,000. McNerney though has defeated tough candidates before, including former House Resources Chairman Richard Pombo (R) in a less Democratic district. Also, 2012 should not be a Republican year so McNerney should probably win although I expect the DCCC to spend money here.

California's 10th Congressional District: Jeff Denham (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 25%
Lean Republican

The 10th district represents southern San Joaquin County which is split between Republican leaning Manteca and Democratic leaning Tracy. The 10th district then represents all of Republican leaning Stanislaus County. Also, Rep. Jeff Denham (R) from the current 19th district which voted 46% for Obama, compared to the 10th district's 50% Obama, plans to run here. Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) who represents part of the 10th district then decided to retire. The Democrats recruited a strong candidate though, Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D) who the DCCC is strongly supporting.

California's 11th Congressional District: George Miller (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 9% African American, 13% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 52% White
Safe Democratic

George Miller should have no trouble winning this heavily Democratic district representing Richmond and central Contra Costa County.

California's 12th Congressional District: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 78%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 6% African American, 31% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 44% White
Safe Democratic

Besides gaining part of the Sunset District, Pelosi's district does not change. It remains located in heavily Democratic San Francisco.

California's 13th Congressional District: Barbara Lee (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 10%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 84%, Whitman 11%
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Democratic

Lee's district gains Alameda and San Leandro. Besides these changes, her district remains the same. It is still one of California's most Democratic districts.

California's 14th Congressional District: Jackie Speier (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 73%, McCain 24%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic

Speier's district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of San Mateo County and remains heavily Democratic.

California's 15th Congressional District: Pete Stark (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 67%, McCain 30%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 59%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic

Stark gains San Ramon and Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore and these changes make his district a bit more Republican. He may face a primary challenge from Rohit Khanna (D) who is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Commerce Department and raised $1.2 million for a possible race. If he runs for Stark's seat, he could make the primary very close.

California's 16th Congressional District: Jim Costa (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 25% White
Hispanic CVAP: 41% Hispanic
Likely Democratic

Costa's district moves north as it retains Democratic parts of Fresno and gains Madera and Merced Counties. Merced County is a swing county but Madera County is Republican but trending Democratic. Although Costa faced a tough reelection in 2010, he should win during more neutral years in this district. In 2010, Costa had a close race due to Republican margins in Kings County but Kings County is no longer in his district so Costa has a stronger chance to win.

California's 17th Congressional District: Mike Honda (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 49% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 27% White
Safe Democratic

Honda's district almost becomes an Asian majority district and if population trends continue, the district should become Asian majority. Honda remains safe from a Republican challenge. Although Honda does not live in this district, I expect him to run here because this district contains most of his current district.

California's 18th Congressional District: Anna Eshoo (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 27%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 58% White
Safe Democratic

Eshoo's district does not change much and remains heavily Democratic.

California's 19th Congressional District: Zoe Lofgren (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 26% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 27% White
Hispanic CVAP: 29%
Safe Democratic

Lofgren's district gains Morgan Hill but besides this change, her district retains most of its current lines and remains Democratic.

California's 20th Congressional District: Sam Farr (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 39% White
Hispanic CVAP: 28%
Safe Democratic

Farr's district does not make major changes. It gains some precincts in Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties but remains anchored in Central California and is heavily Democratic.

California's 21st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 47%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 71% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 49%
Tossup

The 21st district represents heavily Hispanic areas in the southern Central Valley. It contains large portions of Costa's current district but Costa decided to run in the new 16th district so the 21st district lacks an incumbent. Although the district has a high Hispanic population, the Hispanic turnout is usually low so the district is a swing district. It is trending Democratic though because despite underperforming Obama throughout the state, Brown nearly equaled Obama's performance in the 21st district. The Republicans have a strong candidate for the 21st district though. State Assembly member David Valadao (R) is running and he easily beat Fran Florez (D) for the State Assembly seat. State Assembly member Michael Rubio (D) originally planned to run but he left the race. Democrats hope Florez's son, former State Senate Majority Leader Dean Florez (D) decides to run.

California's 22nd Congressional District: Devin Nunes (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 45% Hispanic, 42% White
Hispanic CVAP: 30%
Safe Republican

Nunes's district becomes smaller but remains heavily Republican and centered around Tulare County and conservative Fresno suburbs.

California's 23rd Congressional District: Kevin McCarthy (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 61%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 33%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 36% Hispanic, 51% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Safe Republican

McCarthy's district loses all of its San Luis Obispo County territory and becomes more centered around Kern and Tulare Counties. The district remains heavily Republican and is McCain's best district in California.

California's 24th Congressional District: Lois Capps (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 46%
Demographics: 34% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic

Before 2002, Capps ran in a district with similar lines to the 24th and faced competitive races. In 2002, she received a safer district and won easily in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. The district's new lines though remove heavily Democratic Oxnard while adding the conservative interiors of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. I lived in Santa Barbara for a few years so I realized how Santa Barbara County seems to be a small version of California. It has beach communities, agricultural based communities, upscale liberals, county club Republicans, college liberals, heavily Hispanic communities, and conservative inland communities. Like California, Santa Barbara County has trended Democratic. Gore won by only a few points but Obama won 60% of the vote there. San Luis Obispo County in the northern part of the district has trended Democratic too. Santa Barbara County swung toward the Republicans though in 2010 because turnout in UCSB was low. If Capps wants to win in 2012, she needs to increase turnout there. Her challenger is former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado (R) who is a moderate. Capps is a strong campaigner and has survived tough challenges in the 90s when the district was less Democratic. Being named the "nicest member of Congress" by the Washingtonian magazine does not hurt her chances either.

California's 25th Congressional District: Buck McKeon (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 39%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 8% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 46% White
Safe Republican

Although Lancaster and Palmdale are trending Democratic quickly, Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and McKeon's popularity will keep this district safely in the Republican column.

California's 26th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 47%
Demographics: 6% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 26%
Lean Democratic

Gallegly recently announced his retirement which makes this race easier for Democrats. His district became more Democratic with the addition of Oxnard and his home of Simi Valley was placed in Buck McKeon's (R) district. There are already five Democrats running though. They include Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock (D), retired longshoreman Zeke Ruelas, Oxnard Harbor District President Jess Herrera (D), Westlake Village Businessman David Cruz (D) and Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett (D). Bennett represents Democratic leaning Ventura City as a Supervisor, is popular and well known throughout the district. Cruz and Herrera though are getting support from Hispanic groups and should win support from the district's large Hispanic population in the primary. Pollock is from Republican leaning Moorpark so if he wins the nomination, he could make inroads there. Most pundits agree though that Bennett is the frontrunner in the primary. On the Republican side, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (R) from Thousand Oaks has announced. Other potential candidates include State Senator Tony Strickland (R), and Moorpark City Councilman Keith Millhouse (R). Parks should do well with moderate Republicans while Strickland appeals to the district's more conservative voters.

California's 27th Congressional District: Judy Chu (D) vs. David Dreier (R)?
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 39%
Demographics: 37% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 29% White
Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic if Dreier runs

The 27th district is a combination of Chu's and Dreier's districts while representing foothill communities currently in Dreier's district and heavily Asian areas such as Monterey Park in Chu's current district. Although Dreier is moderate and popular, the 61% Obama number should be high enough to protect Chu. Also, she is a very strong campaigner and a popular incumbent.

California's 28th Congressional District: Adam Schiff (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 55% White
Safe Democratic

Schiff's district loses Pasadena and gains West Hollywood. His district remains heavily Democratic.

California's 29th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 68%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 8% Asian, 69% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic

The commission created this new district as a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Although the district contains territory from both Reps. Howard Berman's (D) and Brad Sherman's (D) districts, they both decided not to run here (see California's 30th Congressional district.) The frontrunner for the 29th district is Los Angeles City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D). He has received support from important political figures such as California's Assembly Speaker John Perez (D) and Rep. Howard Berman.

California's 30th Congressional District: Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 66%, McCain 31%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 36%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 53% White
Safe Democratic

The commission combined the homes of Reps. Berman and Sherman so there will be a contentious primary in this district. Some pundits have suggested that Sherman should run in the open 26th district in Ventura County in order to avoid a possible primary loss in the 30th district. Although no polls have been released for the primary, Berman has gained many endorsements, with 23 representatives endorsing him compared to two for Sherman (Reps. Judy Chu (D) and Grace Napolitano (D).) It is unclear how many voters will be swayed by all the endorsements. This does not indicate Sherman will lose though. He received the endorsement of Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (D), State Controller John Chiang (D) and has raised $3.7 million, more than Berman's $2.2 million but Berman is raising money quickly. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) hosted a large fundraiser for Berman recently. This primary will be very close and could attract national attention.

California's 31st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 12% African American, 7% Asian, 49% Hispanic, 30% White
Hispanic CVAP: 35%
Lean Democratic

This district represents Republican leaning Rancho Cucamonga and Democratic leaning San Bernardino and Colton. The district as a whole leans Democratic and is trending Democratic as Hispanics continue to move into the district. Although Lewis lives in the new 31st district, he does not represent much territory in it and he may decide to either retire or run in the more conservative 8th district. Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) lives in this district but recently announced his retirement. Rep. Gary Miller (R) who represented eastern Orange County and Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County plans to run here instead.  Anyway, Rep. Joe Baca (D) lives in this district but decided to run in the more Democratic 35th district so the Democratic field is open here. Two Democratic candidates, Renea Wickman (D) and Russ Warner (D) have announced plans to run. Wickman is a community activist working with youth and ran unsuccessfully in 2010 for the 63rd Assembly district. Warner is a businessman from Rancho Cucamonga who is more moderate than Wickman is, especially on issues such as immigration. This could be difficult for him in this district with a large Hispanic population. The frontrunner though is Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) who recently announced his candidacy.

California's 32nd Congressional District: Grace Napolitano (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 15% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic

Napolitano's district loses her home but I expect her to run here because it contains most of her current district. Dreier's home is here so he may run here but I doubt he would win in a 62% Obama district.

California's 33rd Congressional District: Henry Waxman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 33%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 13% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 69% White
Safe Democratic

Waxman's district gains large portions of the current 36th district along the coast. It remains heavily Democratic and upscale.

California's 34th Congressional District: Xavier Beccara (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 76%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 20% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 9% White
Safe Democratic

Beccara's district does not undergo major changes. It remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

California's 35th Congressional District: Joe Baca (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 7% African American, 69% Hispanic, 16% White
Hispanic CVAP: 52%
Safe Democratic

This district should be too Democratic to elect a Republican representative but the Democratic primary will be close. Rep. Joe Baca (D) who represented parts of the district plans to run here and so does State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D). Both representatives are popular and McLeod defeated Baca's son in her 2006 State Senate primary.

California's 36th Congressional District: Mary Bono Mack (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White
Hispanic CVAP: 27%
Lean Republican

The district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic but Bono Mack is a very popular representative and is moderate. Also, openly gay Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougent (D) has not made plans to run for the seat although he would be a strong candidate. He ran in 2010 and performed well against Bono Mack. The Democrats found a candidate to challenge Bono Mack though. Dr. Raul Ruiz (D), a physician has announced his candidacy and he is the first Hispanic candidate to challenge Bono Mack for her seat in a district with a large and fast growing Hispanic population. Bono Mack's moderate positions and popularity make her formidable though.

California's 37th Congressional District: Karen Bass (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 79%, McCain 15%
Demographics: 25% African American, 9% Asian, 39% Hispanic, 24% White
African American CVAP: 34%, Hispanic CVAP, 21%
Safe Democratic

Bass retains most of her current territory and represents heavily Democratic areas with a large African American CVAP. She should be safe here.

California's 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 51%
Safe Democratic

Although this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative, there will be a competitive primary here. State Senator Ron Calderon (D) is challenging Sanchez here. Although Sanchez is a popular representative, she has represented only a small part of the district while she is unfamiliar with the voters in the Montebello area where Calderon lives. She needs to introduce herself to voters in that area. I expect she will receive support from other congressional representatives though so she may win.

California's 39th Congressional District: Ed Royce (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 49%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 38%, Whitman 54%
Demographics: 29% Asian, 33% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Republican

Although this district may be trending Democratic because Democratic voters are moving into it, this district remains Republican at a local level. Reps. Miller and Royce were both drawn into the district but Miller decided to run in CA-31 instead so Royce has the field to himself.

California's 40th Congressional District: Lucille Roybal Allard (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 73%, Whitman 19%
Demographics: 6% African American, 86% Hispanic, 5% White
Hispanic CVAP: 73%
Safe Democratic

Allard's district becomes the most heavily Hispanic district in the country with an 86% Hispanic population. It also remains heavily Democratic.

California's 41st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 38%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 10% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 26% White
Hispanic CVAP: 37%
Likely Democratic

The commission created this new Hispanic majority district combining communities of interest in northern Riverside County. The district also voted for Obama and Brown by double digit margins so Democrats have an advantage here. The Democrat running is openly gay Riverside Community College School Board Member Mark Takano (D). Takano ran for this seat under similar lines in 1992 and lost by 550 votes when the area was less Democratic. Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) who represents most of the district is challenging Takano. Although Taviglione is popular and well known, the 59% Obama number in this Democratic trending district and Takano's campaign skills may be too high for him to overcome.

California's 42nd Congressional District: Ken Calvert (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 56%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 36% Hispanic, 47% White
Safe Republican

In 2008, Calvert faced a tough race not only because of his ethics problems but also because the district was trending Democratic quickly and voted for Obama. In this new map though, Calvert is much safer by losing Democratic Riverside and gaining more Republican parts of Riverside County.

California's 43rd Congressional District: Maxine Waters (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 22%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 69%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Asian, 46% Hispanic, 15% White
African American CVAP 33%, Hispanic CVAP 29%
Safe Democratic

Waters's district remains heavily Democratic but the Hispanic CVAP is increasing and is almost as high as the African American CVAP. This creates the possibility of a Hispanic candidate challenging Waters in the primary and winning due to support from Hispanics. Waters's ethics problems though create an even larger opening for a primary challenger too.

California's 44th Congressional District: Laura Richardson (D) vs. Janice Hahn (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 81%, McCain 15%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 77%, Whitman 15%
Demographics: 17% African American, 68% Hispanic, 7% White
African American CVAP 28%, Hispanic CVAP 49%
Safe Democratic

This district will see a tight primary race for the Democrats. Only a small portion of Hahn's district is in the new 44th but Hahn has a strong shot at winning not only because she is popular with the district's many working class voters but also because Richardson has ethics problems. Hahn is a former city councilmember from Los Angeles and represented large portions of the district in the city council. A poll showed her leading Richardson 47-26 but the poll was conducted in August so it may be outdated.

California's 45th Congressional District: John Campbell (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 34%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 21% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 56% White
Safe Republican

Campbell's district loses territory on the Orange County coast and gains more conservative towns inland such as Lake Forest. Although Irvine is Democratic leaning, the rest of the district leans Republican and should keep this district strongly in the Republican column.

California's 46th Congressional District: Loretta Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 67% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic

Sanchez's district remains similar to its current form; heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

California's 47th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 8% African American, 21% Asian, 34% Hispanic, 34% White
Likely Democratic

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) is facing Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R) in this district combining the city of Long Beach with some Orange County communities such as Garden Grove. As of last October though, DeLong had outraised Lowenthal but the district has a large Democratic base and if Obama motivates the Democratic base, Lowenthal should receive a large boost and be able to win.

California's 48th Congressional District: Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 17% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican

Rohrabacher's district loses the entire Los Angeles County portion and gains more of the Orange County coast. It remains Republican and safe for him.

California's 49th Congressional District: Darrell Issa (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 62% White
Safe Republican

Issa's district becomes more Democratic by gaining Carlsbad and Del Mar which were formerly in Bilbray's district. Issa's district still remains safe for him but if Democratic trends continue and Issa retires, this district could become competitive. Bilbray faced competitive races in 2006 and 2008 in a district with similar territory.

California's 50th Congressional District: Duncan Hunter (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 39%, McCain 58%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 30%, Whitman 66%
Demographics: 30% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican

Hunter should be safe in this district representing inland San Diego County. It was Whitman's best district in California and McCain's best district south of Bakersfield.

California's 51st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 58%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 68% Hispanic, 14% White
Safe Democratic

Rep. Bob Filner (D) represented most of this district in Congress but the seat is open because he plans to run for mayor. State Sen. Juan Vargas (D) is running to replace him. Vargas has an advantage because he is well known in the San Diego portion of the district and his State Senate district covers almost the entire new 51st district. Denise Duchney (D), a former State Senator from Vargas's district is running too so there will be a competitive primary for this seat that should vote Democratic in the general election.

California's 52nd Congressional District: Brian Bilbray (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 50%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 62% White
Tossup

Bilbray's district still represents northern San Diego City but the district suddenly jumps from 50% Obama to 55% Obama. He now faces three strong Democratic challengers: Assemblywoman Lori Saldana (D), businessman Bob Nascenzi (D) and Port of San Diego Commission Chairman Scott Peters (D). Most pundits believe that Saldana and Peters will be the Democratic frontrunners for the seat. Bilbray though has fended off difficult challenges for the seat in 2006 and 2008 but the new district is more Democratic so he should worry.

California's 53rd Congressional District: Susan Davis (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 36%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 43% White
Safe Democratic

Davis’s district becomes less Democratic as it gains some San Diego suburbs. The 61% Obama number though should keep her safe.