Why Michael Castle IS the Next Lisa Murkowski

 You may have seen my recent post titled  Why Michael Castle is not the Next Lisa Murkowskiwhere I proceeded to talk about why Michael Castle (R) would win the Delaware Senatorial primary. Lisa Murkowski (R) was the establishment candidate in Alaska and Joe Miller (R) came from behind with Palin's endorsement to win. Castle has never lost an election in Delaware and he has held statewide office for 30 years including holding  Delaware's U.S House seat since 1992. He was running for Ted Kaufman's (D) open Senate seat. The Democratic candidate, Chris Coons (D) from Newcastle county is a strong candidate but was losing to Castle in the polls. Most pundits predicted Castle would just have a small primary against teabagger Christine O' Donnell (R) and then continue holding statewide office. Most pundits also believed that Delaware was too moderate. O' Donnell had already run statewide and lost to Joe Biden (D) in 2008 by about 30 points, losing every county including conservative Sussex County.  Even last Friday when Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint (R) and the Tea Party Express endorsed O' Donnell, most pundits predicted a Castle win. The PPP poll last Sunday showed O' Donnell ahead by 3, the only sign of the future results. PPP has a reputation for being nearly spot on in the primaries. Most Democrats are overjoyed with O' Donnell's 53%-47% win, not because they like her positions (she is extremely conservative.) Most polls show her losing to Coons and a recent Rasmussen poll showed her down by 11. Unless Coons makes a major gaffe or has a major scandal, this race is basically his to lose. Although it is pretty clear who will win, the question I will answer is why did all the tea party figures and organizations succeed in Delaware which is supposed to be a moderate state?

Surges happen often in politics. In the 2008 primary between Clinton and Obama, surges happened in almost every state. The pattern was that Clinton would lead until two weeks before the election when Obama tied the race. Then four days before the election, the tide would turn and Clinton would get the lead. This was due to voters who went to one candidate after a big momentum bounce but as the momentum faded, the voters shifted back to the original candidate. I have seen too many races this year that prove the coming home factor is not strong. For example, the establishment candidate in Kentucky Trey Grayson (R) was down in the polls and voters did not come home to him. For Castle, pundits thought it would be different because he is so entrenched in Delaware. They predicted voters would realize they were actually saying no to Castle so they change their minds quickly. O' Donnell's surge though happened four days before the election which was late enough before voters would realize they were voting against Castle. Besides the money from the teabaggers, O'Donnell also won over voters by portraying herself as an outsider so voters viewed her as the candidate who will "take our country back" instead of the candidate who will "take our country back to the extremists."

The second reason is that Delaware is a closed primary which means only Republicans can vote in it, instead of Independents and Democrats. Although most voters in the Republican primaries are Republicans, Independents can make a big difference often. When McCain ran for President in 2000, he stayed in the race for awhile because he attracted Independents in the Republican Primaries. In the 2008 Republican primaries, McCain's appeal to Independents gave him the early momentum which gave him the nomination. In Delaware, Castle was leading the polls against Coons because Castle appealed to Independents. If Castle had realized O'Donnell would be a formidable challenger, he could have run a campaign to get Independents to register as Republicans before the registration deadline. However, Castle did not and may have believed he would win because he has never lost an election before. Even if Delaware's Republicans were more moderate, he may have won which leads to the third reason he lost.

Delaware's Republicans are too conservative for Castle. Wait, Delaware is a Northeast State so the Republicans are supposed to be moderates, right? Although there are definitely are moderate Republicans in northeastern states like New Jersey and Connecticut, Delaware is a little different. Yes, Newcastle County (Wilmington) is basically a suburb of Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs are known for moderate Republicans. Delaware though also is culturally a southern state outside of the Philadelphia suburbs. It is on the Delmarva peninsula which has very conservative whites and most of them are religious. The two southern counties in Delaware are Kent and Sussex Counties which are also fast growing. Sussex County is infamous for not letting a Jewish girl speak about her religion at her graduation speech. Although Newcastle County has about 62% of Delaware's population, Newcastle County is more Democratic than the rest of the state. Therefore, Newcastle County cast about half of the Republican primary votes last Tuesday. Even if the Republicans in southern Delaware were conservative, how did O'Donnell pick up enough votes in Newcastle County to prevent Castle's margin  there from carrying him to victory? In 2006 and 2008, Democrats made major gains in the Northeast with elected offices but also convinced many moderate Republicans to become Democrats because of Bush's unpopularity and the Republican image of extreme evangelical Christians. With many moderate Republicans gone, the Republican party has become more conservative. Yes, Castle had the votes to win but those voters could not vote in his primary.

Overall, Castle lost because this was a real surge, Independents could not cross over and the Republican party in Delaware has become too conservative. Many pundits have suggested that the Republican party was becoming more conservative because of all the Independents moving to the Democrats two years ago. This could explain why the Independents now are leaning more towards the Republicans because those voters are going back to their original voting habits. They just have not changed their registration yet. The Republican party needs to convince these voters to return to the Republican party or the Republicans will continue to nominate extremists candidates like Christine O'Donnell.

What do you think about the recent events in the Delaware Senate race? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Why Michael Castle is not the Next Lisa Murkowski

 On August 24th in Alaska, pundits like me witnessed a large political upset. Everyone expected Lisa Murkowski (R) to beat back the primary challenge from lawyer Joe Miller (R) but instead he won by 51%-49%. Miller was not a high profile candidate challenging Murkowski but this is the year of the political upsets. In Utah, incumbent Bob Bennett (R) lost the primary for Senate and so did establishment candidate Trey Grayson (R) in Kentucky for Senate. Still, Murkowksi did not lose merely because she was a member of the establishment. Six years ago, Murkowski was not considered moderate but by today's standards, she is due to her pro choice views. This definitely affected her standing among voters. Then Palin came along and endorsed Miller. In past primaries, once Palin gives her endrosement, the candidate surges in the Republican primary. A classic example is when Palin endorsed Nikki Haley (R) who is running for South Carolina's Governorship. After that primary, Palin's endorsement seemed to not be the magic touch. In Georgia, her endorsed Gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel (R) lost to Nathan Deal (R). Still, her endorsement is powerful in Alaska, her home state. Also, the tea party pumped money into Alaska with a relatively cheap media market. The Palin factor, the tea party factor, the anti incumbent year and Murkowski's moderate views all together caused her to lose.

Some Republicans are hoping they can pull off another upset in Delaware. Ted Kaufman (D) is vacating his Senate seat so moderate and longtime U.S House member Michael Castle (R) is running for it. Castle is also a former Governor. Most polls show him beating Chris Coons (D) from New Castle County. Castle though is facing an obstacle that can potentially become big. Christine O'Donnell (R) is running far to the right of Castle in the primary. A Rasmussen poll shows Coons beating O'Donnell by 11 points so if she wins the primary, the Republicans lose a pickup chance. Recently, O'Donnell has been grabbing momentum. About a week ago, the tea party express decided to shift to Delaware to bring down Castle. Last Friday, O'Donnell picked up Palin's endorsement, tea party king Jim De Mint's endorsement and the NRA. Castle fits every definition of an incumbent and most pundits have said this is an anti incumbent year. Still, I think Castle will win for three important reasons:

    This is strong momentum for O'Donnell but is coming too late for her. In Alaska, Joe Miller had received Palin's endorsment much earlier than four days before the primary. In political races, momentum can change quickly but it takes time for it to change into actual votes. Most voters do not change their minds every time they see one positive news story about the opponent. If the endorsements had happened a week earlier, it will have given more voters time to change their minds and help O' Donnell. Many voters though have already made up their minds.

    Michael Castle and Lisa Murkowski were both incumbents but different kinds. Michael Castle has served in statewide office since 1981 when he became Lieutenant Governor. He has been reelected easily as a U.S House member. In 2008, he won 61% of the vote even as Delaware trends toward the left and voted 62% for Obama. Lisa Murkowski though served in statewide office since 2002 and her father Frank Murkowski (R) appointed her to the Senate seat. Many voters viewed this as nepotism and Murkowski won by only three points in 2004. She never truly connected with Alaska voters while Castle has never lost an election in Delaware. Yes Castle is a true incumbent but since he is so well known and liked, it may be too difficult for enough voters to say no to him.

   The final and most important reason is that Delaware's Republicans are different from Alaska's. Alaska is a state with many rural conservative Republicans who like teabaggers like Jim De Mint and Sarah Palin. Hunting is very prominent in Alaska too. Delaware though is a very different state. It is divided into New Castle County with Wilmington and Philadelphia suburbs. Sussex County which is rural and conservative and Kent County which is a mix of the two. Most of the state's votes are cast in New Castle County. Delaware is a state where the teabaggers are unpopular and Palin definitely made McCain lose some votes here in 2008. Delaware is not a big hunting state either. Republicans in Delaware are moderate and more urban, not like extremist conservatives. If O' Donnell wanted to win, she should have received Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie's (R) endorsement. He is popular in northeastern suburbs. Christie already endorsed Castle though. The endorsements may help O' Donnell in Sussex County but may hurt more in the Wilmington area where she needs votes.

Overall, the Delaware race does have some similarities to the Alaska primary because of the anti establishment candidate getting the endorsements from the teabaggers. The differences though are that the endorsements came too late, Castle is more popular and Delaware is a state where the teabaggers are just too extreme for most voters. Remember that even with the momentum in Alaska, Miller won by only two points.

Changing Senate Races After Labor Day

 In many states across the country, Democrats are looking at losing Senate seats. Fortunately, most pundits including myself believe that the Republicans will not pick up enough seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Still, many people believe the Republicans will pick up about 6-7 seats and the trend is more for the Republicans. Some races though are not as solidly Republican as you may think though. It may be because the Democrat is not well known to voters or has not spent enough time to define him/herself and the opponent. Since Labor Day is not here yet, the real campaign season is not here either (unless your name is Meg Whitman and you are spending money nonstop.) That is a good example (and probably the most famous) one of the races where the Democrat has not kicked the campaign into high gear. Not all races where one candidate will start doing better after Labor Day are races where Democrats will improve. For example, Ohio has a tied race with Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D). Portman has raised a large amount of money and when he starts spending it, he should open a lead. Now here is a list of the races which should change after Labor Day:

Delaware: Michael Castle (R) vs. Chris Coons (D)
Chris Coons is the County Supervisor for New Castle County (Wilmington) which is known as the state's  bellwether. Castle is the At-Large Representative for Delaware, he is a moderate and he has represented it for awhile. Also, his moderate views make him appealing to independents. Most polling also shows Castle with about a 10 point lead. Although Coons at first appears to be in trouble, he has a good shot at making this close. Coons needs to introduce himself to voters and the Democratic lean of Delaware should help him close in on castle. Still, this race looks like Castle's to lose.

Indiana: Dan Coats (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Coats is a former Indiana Senator and a former lobbyist. Ellsworth has been a U.S House member in southwestern Indiana for four years. Coats is definitely more of the incumbent but this race will tell us whether it is really an anti incumbent year or just an anti Democratic year. Most polls show Coats with a solid lead over Ellsworth. Do not expect the lead to be so large soon. Ellsworth won by 24 points in 2006, knocking out Republican John Hosteletter (R) and he is extremely popular in that district. Once Ellsworth starts introducing himself to rural voters outside of his district, he should get closer to Coats because Ellsworth pro gun stances and other views popular in rural areas should help him. Coats voted for the Brady Bill so it is even possible Ellsworth will get the NRA endorsement. Although I expect a Coats win by 5 points, Coats's big lead in the polls now is due to Ellsworth not being well known.

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Carnahan is the Secretary of State and she won by 26 points in 2008 and won the important rural areas of Missouri. For a Democrat to win an election here, he/she must keep Republican margins in rural areas down enough so they do not offset Democratic votes in St. Louis/Kansas City areas. Also, Carnahan's opponent is Roy Blunt who is from conservative southwest Missouri where Democrats never make big inroads (so no hometown advantage for him.) Blunt also is the former Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. You would think Carnahan would have this race in the bag but most polls show Blunt leading Carnahan by a few points. The likely explanation is that since Obama is unpopular in Missouri (he did not even win here in 2008,) the unpopularity is spilling over to Carnahan. Still, she has a better shot once she starts defining Roy Blunt and reminding 61% of Missouri voters why they supported her. This race should get closer but I expect a Blunt win.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
So far, races that I am saying will change are races which should shift toward the Democratic candiate. This race though should shift towards the Republicans. Portman (R) is the former U.S Trade Representative under the Bush Administration and Bush is still unpopular in Ohio. Lee Fisher (D), the Lieutenant Governor is a solid candidate from Northeast Ohio where Democrats need big turnout to win. Most polls show a close race but after Labor Day, Portman should get a bigger lead. His advantage is that he has much more money than Fisher so he will be able to blanket the state with ads while Fisher will not. Although Fisher has the backing of the state's strong unions, it will probably not be enough for him to win.

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D)
If one race will see a big shift in polls after Labor Day, it will be this one. Joe Sestak surprised everyone by beating Arlen Specter (D) by 8 points, thanks to an ad blitz at the end with Sestak defining himself as a populist which played really well in West Pennsylvania. Also, there was a clear contrast when Specter gave a not so exciting concession speech while Sestak was very energetic. Now Sestak needs to use his energy against Toomey, a former big Club For Growth conservative. In 2004, Toomey ran as the conservative when he primaried Specter but Toomey is now running to the center. Although most polls show Sestak behind, Sestak has not kicked in his campaign yet. If there is one race that will see a big shift, it will be this one. Sestak will probably wait until the last minute to do an ad blitz but as we saw with Martha Coakley (D) in Massachusetts, waiting until the last minute is not a good idea. Still, it worked for Sestak in the primary so it might work again. This race will end up being really close.