Minnesota Redistricting 7-1 Democratic

After a yearlong absence, my redistricting map posts are back!

Although the 2011 redistricting season has passed and the next redistricting will take place around 2020, Minnesota has the possibility of undergoing mid decade redistricting. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats had split control of the state Government with Democrats controlling the Governorship and Republicans controlling the Legislature. Democrats now control the Legislature though so they have the trifecta. Currently, the map is 5-3 Democratic but with a bit of redistricting, Democrats can bring it up to 7-1 Democratic without splitting St. Paul and Minneapolis which is a big no no in Minnesota redistricting. I am not sure if Minnesota will undergo mid decade redistricting but if Minnesota did, I would recommend this map. In this map, besides not splitting the Twin Cities, I created a Republican vote sink in the western suburbs that combined John Kline's home with most of Michelle Bachmann's district. I also made the 3rd district more Democratic and changed its configuration greatly. The reason is that many of the incumbents such as Erik Paulsen (R) and John Kline (R) have become entrenched so I added unfamiliar territory to their districts. Anyway, here is the map.

Statewide

Data for the districts (the AA stands for African American.)

Minnesota's 1st District: Tim Walz (D) Rochester, southern Minnesota (blue)

Although this district barely voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Walz should probably win here. He has become entrenched after his 2006 win and won easily in 2010 and 2012. This district undergoes minimal changes, losing two conservative western rural counties and replacing them with two conservative counties Sibley and LeSeur. They do not alter the district makeup much and Walz keeps most of his constituents. 

Likely Democratic

Twin Cities and exurbs

Minnesota's 2nd District: Vacant Northfield, Dakota County, Washington County (green) 

This district contains parts of Rep. John Kline's (R) current district but Kline may not run here because this district supported Obama by 9 points in 2008 (Obama won Minnesota by 9 points in 2008 so this matches his statewide average,) and Kline's home of Lakeville is in the more conservative 6th district. Kline faced a tougher reelection campaign than expected in 2012, winning with 54% of the vote. This new district though adds unfamiliar territory for Kline where he is not entrenched while eliminating Scott and Goodhue Counties which gave him a combined 21,000 vote margin (his overall margin was 29,000 votes.) The 2nd district also loses conservative parts of Dakota County. Kline won 52% in Dakota County. The district retains Democratic parts of Rice County though which voted 40% for Kline. The 2nd district also adds new territory including central Washington County as well as some Democratic leaning St. Paul suburbs in Ramsey County. These voters are unfamiliar with Kline and it will be harder for him to win them. The 2008 Obama percentage goes up from 51% to 53% as well. The higher percentage may encourage some strong Democrats to run which will be hard for Kline because he has not faced a tough challenge since 2002. If Kline opts for the 6th district, he will have a difficult primary with Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) but since most of the new 6th district is new territory for her, she may have trouble winning the primary, especially if she is too extreme. 

Tossup/Tilt Democratic if Kline runs, Lean Democratic if not 

Minnesota's 3rd District: Vacant Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids (purple)

Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) will probably run in this district after it is increased from 50% to 56% Obama but he probably will lose. The reason is that he was entrenched in a swing district that contained the outer suburbs in Hennepin County so he did well there but the 3rd district adds Edina and a few other heavily Democratic suburbs bordering Minneapolis. The 3rd district also loses the conservative exurbs in western Hennepin County including Eden Prairie, Paulsen's home. These stronger Democratic lines should attract a strong Democratic challenger instead of the token opposition Paulsen faced in 2010 and 2012. The 3rd is at 56% Obama even without splitting Minneapolis and although it splits counties, I had to do so for population reasons.
Lean Democratic

Minnesota's 4th District: Betty McCollum (D) St. Paul, northern Anoka County (red)
This district loses most of the close in St. Paul suburbs and gains conservative areas such as northern Anoka County and Isanti County to remove them from the 6th and 8th districts. These changes bring down Obama's 2008 percentage to 58.7% and his 2012 percentage is probably 56%-57%. St. Paul does not ticket split in local races and it has high turnout so it should be enough to anchor McCollum. She may have to fight a bit more to keep her seat but she should still win.

Minnesota's 5th District: Keith Ellison (D) vs. Erik Paulsen (R) Minneapolis, Eden Prairie (yellow)
I placed Paulsen's home in this district but I doubt Paulsen would run in this district which voted 68% for Obama. The 5th district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic suburbs such as Edina and gains western Hennepin County which is exurban, conservative and resembles Sherburne County more than it resembles Minneapolis. These exurban areas also are staunchly Republican (especially in local races unlike the 7th district which is Republican nationally but Democratic in local races.) These changes make the 3rd district more Democratic while keeping the 5th safely in Democratic hands. The 5th also does not split any counties and it splits as few towns as possible, keeping Eden Prairie and Bloomington 100% intact.

Minnesota's 6th District: John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R): Lakeville, Carver County, Sherburne County (teal)
Bachmann and Kline will probably face each other in this extremely conservative district. It is 1 point more Republican than Bachmann's current district so Bachmann would be even safer here. I wanted to sacrifice her though for opening up the 2nd and 3rd districts to Democratic challenges. Also, Kline's home is in the district so he may prefer to run here and he would face an easy reelection if he won the primary. Bachmann will be able to fundraise easily but if the Republican Party does try to moderate itself, Bachmann may be in trouble. She is not popular in her district after her Presidential run (she won by only two points in 2012 despite her money advantage,) so if Kline can exploit that (and win big margins in his current district and Carver County which he represented until 2010,) he could win.

Minnesota 7th District: Collin Peterson (D) west Minnesota (gray)
Besides trading a few counties around the edges, the 7th district remains the same. These counties may lean Republican but they are strongly Democratic in statewide and local races. It is still Republican leaning but Peterson is very popular and he should hold it as long as he is in office.

Minnesota's 8th District: Rick Nolan (D) St. Cloud, Duluth, northeastern Minnesota (light purple)
I strengthened Nolan a bit by removing fast growing exurban areas in Chisago and Isanti Counties. I then added St. Cloud which is a swing area (the counties around it are Republican because the exurbs there are conservative even though the city of St. Cloud is pretty even politically.) Besides these changes, the district remains centered around the Iron Range. Nolan performed fine here in 2012, winning by 8 points against former Rep. Chip Craavack (R) but this district is still moving away from the Democrats so removing Isanti and part of Chisago will help Nolan because those areas are fast growing and trending Republican quickly. 

Minnesota Redistricting: The Democrats' Proposal

In Minnesota, the Democrats picked up the Governorship in 2010 with Mark Dayton (D) beating Tom Emmer (R). Despite performing well at a statewide level, the Democrats lost both houses of the state legislature. Besides giving Republicans the power to put initiatives before the voters such as marriage equality, the Democrats and Republicans have split control in redistricting. In the past though, the courts have drawn Minnesota's maps when the Democrats and Republicans had split control because the Republicans and Democrats could not agree on a plan. Although a court drawn map appears very likely, the map I drew here is a suggestion for the Democrats' proposal for Minnesota's congressional map. The map's main objectives were to weaken Chip Cravaack's (R) 8th district and weaken Erik Paulsen's (R) 3rd district. There are a few parts of this plan that may appeal to some Republicans though. For example, Michelle Bachmann's (R) 6th district is strengthened by the removal of Democratic leaning St. Cloud. The Republicans will probably not agree to this plan but this is a suggestion for what the Democrats should propose. This map contains 3 Safe Democratic seats, 1 Likely Democratic seat, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 1 Toss Up and 2 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:

Minnesota
Minnesota's 1st District Tim Walz (D) Blue
Obama 182,461 51.8%, McCain 161,245 45.8%
Old District's Presidential Election 2008: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 52.1%, Republicans 47.9%
Demographics: 5.0% Hispanic, 89.0% White
Demographics 18+: 3.8% Hispanic, 91.3% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Although Tim Walz (D) won in 2010, a very Republican year in a swing district that voted for both Bush and Obama, I strengthened the 1st district a bit so a very strong Republican challenger in a very Republican year cannot unseat him. I removed five counties in the western part of the district which combined voted 52%-46% for McCain. To compensate for that population loss, I added Democratic leaning Rice County which voted 55%-42% for Obama and Democratic parts of Goodhue County. Although Walz is not completely safe in this district that contains Red Wing, Waseca and Rochester, he is much safer than before.

Twin Cities

Minnesota's 2nd District John Kline (R) Green
Obama 163,538 45.3%, McCain 190,484 52.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 44.6%, Republicans 55.4%
Demographics: 4.0% Hispanic, 87.6% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 90.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Kline is a popular incumbent who is already safe in his district. He won in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 with 56% and 57% of the vote respectively. Under the new lines, his district becomes more Republican with the removal of Democratic leaning Rice County and Democratic leaning Eagan. The district gains all of heavily Republican McLeod County and Sibley Counties while gaining parts of Republican Meeker and Wright Counties. The addition of the Republican counties and the loss of the Democratic areas help make the 2nd district more Republican.

Minnesota's 3rd District Erik Paulsen (R) DarkMagenta
Obama 217,112 55.4%, McCain 168,438 42.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Average: Democrats 52.7%, Republicans 47.3%
Demographics: 7.9% African American, 6.6% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic, 77.4% White
Demographics 18+: 6.6% African American, 6.2% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic, 81.3% White
Status: Toss Up

Paulsen has won in the 52% Obama district in 2008 and 2010 but with the district now voting 55% for Obama, he may face a tougher race. The 3rd district loses conservative areas near Maple Grove and gains the Democratic leaning towns of St. Louis, Burnsville, Eagan and Cottage Grove. Although Paulsen's district contains most of his old territory, he may not be entrenched yet because he has represented the district for less than four years. The district's shift toward the Democrats could attract a strong candidate who can beat Paulsen. State Senator Ron Latz (DFL) from St. Louis and Ashwin Madia (DFL), Paulsen's 2008 challenger may consider running in this district.

Twin Cities Core
Minnesota's 4th District Betty McCollum (D) Red
Obama 232,896 63.3%, McCain 127,572 34.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 64%, McCain 34%
Average: Democrats 62.3%, Republicans 37.7%
Demographics: 9.2% African American, 9.7% Asian, 7.2% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 8.0% Asian, 5.7% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district mostly retains its current boundaries and expands to keep the population deviation equal. The 4th district gains Stillwater in Washington County which is Michelle Bachmann's (R) home. Bachmann will not win in a 63% Obama district so she should not challenge McCollum who will continue to have a strong Democratic district.

Minnesota's 5th District Keith Ellison (D) Yellow
Obama 262,448 71.0%, McCain 99,476 26.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Average: Democrats 70.4%, Republicans 29.6%
Demographics: 14.7% African American, 5.6% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 12.4% African American, 5.2% Asian, 6.7% Hispanic, 72.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes less Democratic with the loss of the heavily Democratic suburb of St. Louis. To keep equal population deviation with other districts, the 5th gains marginal Coon Rapids. The 5th remains the most Democratic district in Minnesota though by containing of all Minneapolis.

Minnesota's 6th District Michelle Bachmann (R) Teal
Obama 153,831 42.6%, McCain 199,737 55.3%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Average: Democrats 43.6%, Republicans 56.4%
Demographics: 2.5% Asian, 91.4% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Asian, 93.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the Democrats dislike Bachmann, she gains a safe district under this map. Her district gains more Republican areas in order to strengthen Democratic chances in the 3rd and 8th districts. The 6th district loses swing areas including St. Cloud, Coon Rapids and Stillwater (Bachmann's home.) The 6th district also gains Republican Isanti and Chisago Counties from the 8th district and Republican Maple Grove in Hennepin County from the 3rd district. These changes raise the McCain percentage in the 6th district from 53% to 55% and make the district more Republican.

Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson (D) Gray
Obama 162,485 47.5%, McCain 171,203 50.1%
Old District's Presidential  Election Data: Obama 47%, McCain 50%
Average: Democrats 48.6%, Republicans 51.4%
Demographics: 4.2% Hispanic, 90.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 92.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 7th district does not undergo major changes. It retains rural western Minnesota while losing a few Republican counties near the Minneapolis exurbs that have the potential to fill with conservative suburbanites from the Twin Cities area. The 7th district gains a couple of Republican counties from the 8th district in order to strengthen opportunities for Democrats there and the 7th gains a couple of counties on the Iowa border. Although the district voted for McCain, Peterson won in 2010 so if he can win in 2010, he should win in any year. Also, this district is Democratic at a local level so when Peterson retires, a Democratic candidate should have an advantage.

Minnesota's 8th District Chip Cravaack (R) SlateBlue
Obama 198,534 54.5%, McCain 157,205 43.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Average: Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 42.6%

Demographics: 2.7% Native American, 91.6% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Native American, 93.2% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Cravaack won the 8th district in an upset by beating James Oberstar (D) in the heavily Republican year of 2010 which hit Minnesota hard. Although Democrats won the Governorship, the margin was closer than expected and the Democrats lost control of the state legislature. Cravaack won in this traditionally Democratic district containing Duluth and the Iron Range by winning large margins in the fast growing Republican leaning counties such as Isanti and Chisago. I removed both of those counties and added Democratic leaning St. Cloud. These changes bring the Obama percentage to almost 55%. If 2012 is even a neutral year, a Democrat should win in this district.

Redistricting Maps for Minnesota

Northeastern Minnesota

Twin Cities core

Northern Minnesota

Southern Minnesota

So these are the maps for Minnesota redistricting. You can view the write up for them on swing state project. Yes, I did try moving the maps to paint but I was unable to move them anywhere so I had to use the maps you see here. Sorry.