How Harry Reid Won

 Yes, I have seen many articles describing how Harry Reid won because his ground game and campaign were superior to Sharron Angle's (R) but I will actually look at the map here and see exactly what demographics carried Reid to victory. First, I will start at the beginning: the economic downturn affected people across the United States and Nevada was no exception. Unemployment here was at 14% so many Nevadans blamed the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid for the high unemployment rate. Reid appeared to be in danger and polls showed him losing to Sue Lowden (R) who was the frontrunner in the Republican primaries. Then after saying people should trade healthcare for chickens, she lost and Sharron Angle (R) won the primary. Immediately, Harry Reid introduced Angle's extreme beliefs to the public such as how she wants Social Security Eliminated, she suggested people should use "2nd Amendment remedies" against the Government while saying rape victims should not be allowed to choose whether to have an abortion. Angle tried to keep herself quiet by staying away from reporters not from Fox News. Angle's campaign had a poor ground game compared to Reid's which was extremely organized. Due to all these factors, Reid beat the Republican wind and won by 41,000 votes. Here is a map of the 2010 election results:

Here is a map of the 2008 election results

Here is a map representing the shift from 2008 to 2010:

light blue is Democratic 0%-5%
light red is Republican 0%-5%
Red is Republican 6%-10%
Dark Red is Republican 11%+

 Nevada is an interesting state in terms of the bases. The Democratic base is Clark County which contains Las Vegas. Clark County usually does not vote overwhelmingly Democratic but since it has so many people, Democrats can win Nevada by winning Clark County with a 10% or higher margin. The Republican base is the cow counties which are the rural counties outside of Clark. These counties generally have small populations but cast large Republican margins to offset Clark County. The big bellwether in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno.) It usually votes with the statewide average and represents the state as a whole. It has an urban area with casinos that leans Democratic and some conservative rural areas. While looking at the 2008 and 2010 map, it appears that Reid performed better than Obama because there is more blue on that map. When looking at the map showing the shifts though, it reveals that Obama performed better because the shifts toward Reid where in counties with smaller populations.

As the map shows, Obama performed much better than Reid but the shift toward Angle was not uniform across the state. The shift toward Angle was most apparent in the Reno area in counties such as Douglas County.  McCain won it 56%-41% but it shifted ten points toward Angle who won it by 59%-34%. The reason for the shift here is that Angle is from the Reno area so her presence here probably gave her a few points. It was not enough to give her Washoe County (Reno) which she lost by 5 points. In Clark County, the shift was -6 for the Democrats, one point below the -7 shift statewide. It is not surprising the Republican shift in Clark County was not as strong as the rest of the state because as many news articles have mentioned, Reid turned out the Democratic base in order to win.

Surprisingly, some of the conservative "Cow Counties" which vote more Republican than the rest of the state shifted toward Reid. An example is Humboldt County on the Oregon border near Elko County. It voted 63%-33% for McCain, giving him a 30 point win. Angle though won it 57%-32% by 25 points, 5 points less than McCain while she overperfomed him by 7 points statewide. Humboldt County does not have a strong Democratic base so that would not explain the shift toward Reid. One possible explanation is that a Harry Reid endorsement by Elko County's main newspaper caused a few voters to shift to Reid and since the newspaper had a strong presence in the area. Although the endorsement probably did not influence many voters, it seemed to influence enough voters to cause Reid to perform better than Obama did. This example suggests that Reid won by not only turning out the base voters but swaying independents as well due to the inroads he made in a few conservative counties.

Overall, the real reason for Reid winning was not that he turned out the base voters but he succeeded in winning over independents too. His campaign was so strong that he even overperformed in areas with conservative leaning independents when one may expect Angle to dominate among those voters due to the independents countrywide swinging to the Republicans. Angle had enough presence in her home area to overperform there but Reid's overperformance in the northern part of the state demonstrates how Reid's support among the large groups in Nevada was so strong that it helped him even there.

New Mexico Redistricting

 I have not redistricted many states with only a few congressional districts yet but I am now doing New Mexico. This state is gaining no congressional districts and the congressional makeup is 2-1 Democratic which is different from the last census in 2000 when the districts were 2-1 Republican. In 2008, the shift in congressional seats occured when Martin Heinrich (D) picked up the 1st Congressional district centered around Albequerque which always votes about 1-2 points more Democratic than the rest of the state. Also, the Democrats picked up the 2nd Congressional district with Harry Teague (D) which is heavily Hispanic and in the southern part of the state. Republicans gained the 2nd Congressional district but did not erase all of the Democratic gains in New Mexico because the Democrats still have the 1st Congressional district. Unfortunately for the Democrats though, Susana Martinez (R) from Las Cruces in southern New Mexico is now the Governor so Democrats do not hold the trifecta. If Democrats held the trifecta (controlling both houses of the legislature and the Governorship,) they could try to weaken the 2nd district's Republican lean but since the Governor is Republican, the best Democrats can hope for is an incumbent protection plan. Although the lines have stayed pretty firm since the 1970's when New Mexico gained a congressional district, I am shifting it around a bit so the incumbents have safer districts. The 1st and 3rd districts get more Democratic while Steve Pearce (although I dislike him,) gets safer. Now here are the maps:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NM (current map of New Mexico Congressional districts.)

North New Mexico

South New Mexico

Albequerque area
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: Martin Heinrich (D) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 179,555 61%, McCain 112,968 38%
Demographics: 43% White, 6% Native American, 45% Hispanic
Major Cities: Albequerque
Old district's partisan data: Obama 60%-39%
Status: Likely Democratic

Although Heinrich won in 2010, a Republican wave year, he still needs to be protected because he won by only four points. Therefore, I made his district a bit more Democratic by removing all of heavily Republican Torrance and swingy Valencia County. I added heavily Democratic areas in northern Sandoval County while keeping all of Bernallio County (Albequerque) which leans Democratic in the district. Heinrich's district is only a bit more Democratic but he should be more safe since he loses all the swingy suburban territory.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Pearce (R) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 118,398 44%, McCain 146,587 55%
Demographics: 50% White, 43% Hispanic
Major Cities: Roswell, Clovis, Alamogordo
Old district's partisan data: McCain 50%-49%
Status: Safe Republican


As much as I hate Steve Pearce, I definitely see him getting a safer district for incumbent protection. This is the district that I altered the most. I removed the most Democratic parts of heavily Hispanic Dona Ana County and I also removed Democratic counties in the west such as Grant and Cibola. To compensate for the loss of those counties, I added suburban Torrance and Sandoval Counties near Albequerque to help Heinrich. I also added a string of Republican counties in the northeast such as Curry County (Clovis) and Union County which were formerly in the 3rd district. The Hispanic population here also drops too from 49% to 43%. His district keeps "Little Texas," the Republican southeast part of the state with Roswell and Lea County. As much as I want to see Pearce lose, this district keeps him completely safe.

3rd District: Ray Lujan (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 173,992 66%, McCain 87,125 33%
Demographics: 33% White, 18% Native American, 47% Hispanic
Major Cities: Las Cruces, Santa Fe, Farmington
Old district's partisan data: Obama 61%-38%
Status: Safe Democratic

Lujan won with 57% in 2010 which is a good margin for an extremely bad election year for the Democrats. Still, I see him being stregthened in a bipartisan plan to protect Pearce. Lujan's district is currently centered in the north containing Santa Fe, Taos, the Democratic counties surrounding them, Republican Farmington and conservative counties on the eastern border. Although heavily Republican Farmington is still in the district, the district becomes more Democratic by losing the Republican counties on the eastern border and gaining a string of Democratic counties in the west all the way down to heavily Hispanic Las Cruces. These changes overall bring Obama's percentage up to 66%.

How Michael Bennett Won in Colorado

 In the 2010 midterm elections, Colorado was one of the main battleground states. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) chose Michael Bennett (D) to fill outgoing Senator Ken Salazar's (D) spot. Immediately, Republicans believed they had a pickup opportunity and polls showed Bennett in a close race. To add to Bennett's worries, he faced a challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) who had the support of the netroots and Bill Clinton. In August, while Democrats across the country were facing poor polling numbers, Bennett was improving his numbers as he won the primary and extremist Ken Buck (R) won the Republican nomination for Senate. Bennett ran ads on social issues, highlighting how Bennett opposes a woman's right to an abortion in almost all cases. Bennett hoped these ads would help him win moderate voters in Denver's suburbs, a crucial swing area. While Democrats lost two U.S House seats and the State House, Bennett won by 16,000 votes. Here is a statewide map of the results of the Senate race:

Here is a map of the 2008 Presidential election results:

Many pundits have defined Colorado as a base state where there are very liberal and conservative voters. Many elections revolve around who can excite their base the most and bring those voters to the polls. The Democratic base is Denver, Boulder and the ski resort counties that run in the Rocky Mountains through the center of the state. A line of unbroken blue from Colorado's southern border to its northern usually indicates a Democratic win because the Democratic candidate was able to bring enough of its base in the ski resorts to the polls and win over Hispanics in the southern counties such as Huefrano and Las Animas. The Republican base is Douglas County, El Paso County (Colorado Springs,) rural ranching counties in the east and mining counties in the west. Colorado is not just liberal and conservative voters though. Counties such as Adams, Jefferson, Araphoe and Larmier are filled with swing voters who lean Democratic on social issues but lean Republican on economic ones.


 What is interesting about the results is that while Obama won by 9 points and Bennett won by only 1, the county map is almost identical except for Chaffee County which Bennett won by less than one point but Obama lost by about the same margin. Why though did Obama do much better than Bennett while winning almost all the same counties? Did Bennett win by turning out Colorado's Democratic base or winning over moderate voters?
 
While the maps look nearly identical, the results tell a different story. Take a look at El Paso County for example, The Republicans' most populous base county and one of the most conservative. Buck won there by 28 points. McCain only won there by 19 points in an election where he had trouble turning out the base. For the Democrats, a base county to examine is ski resort county Gunnison County. In 2008, Obama turned out the Democratic base and won Gunnison County by 28 points. Bennett however won Gunnison County by 15 points. The overall shift from 2008 to 2010 was Democrats -8 points but in Gunnison County, the shift was -13 for Democrats. Did Gunnison have large number of swing voters or an enthusiasm gap? It was certainly an enthusiasm gap because the turnout levels in 2010 in Gunnison County were 46% of 2008's levels.The overall statewide turnout level in 2010 was 70% of 2008. Now we shall examine Jefferson County, a swing county in Denver's suburbs. It is one of the main bellwether counties in the state along with Larmier County. Bennett won there by 2 points while Obama won there by 9, showing a -7 shift for Democrats, below the statewide average. Jefferson is filled with the moderate suburban voters whom Bennett hoped to win.
 
Overall, the county results show that there was indeed an enthusiasm gap with Buck triumphing in heavily Republican areas and Bennett facing low turnout in some Democratic areas. Bennett was able to make up the difference though by relying on persuasion instead of turnout. Buck's teabagger persona excited his base but his extremism on abortion rights and gay issues caused the moderate voters to be averse to his extremism and vote for Bennett. In the Senate races, many of the close races the Republicans lost were races with extremists such as Nevada where Harry Reid (D) beat back a challenge from extremist Sharron Angle (R) who had extreme opinions such as eliminating social security and the Department of Education. Republicans had an opportunity to win more Senate seats but instead of pandering to moderate voters, they pandered to the base too strongly. To win elections, both Republican and Democratic candidates have to find a balance between a base candidate where they scare away moderates or a moderate candidate where they anger the base.

My Last Senate Rankings: Tossups Galore

Pundits always say that when election day is really close, some candidates start pulling away from the opponent. In West Virginia, we are seeing that. Joe Manchin (D) was in a close race with John Raese (R) but Manchin retrieved his lead when Raese made some gaffes such as looking for "hicky" people in an ad and then the controversy of his house in Florida (his wife is not even registered to vote in West Virginia.) Not all tossup races though have an incumbent pulling away in then end. In Pennsylvania, Toomey is leading by about 3 and his seems to have stopped Sestak's surge. Sources on the ground in Philadelphia though tell me that the GOTV operation there is in full swing for Sestak and if a larger than expected turnout occurs in Philadelphia, Sestak will be much closer and maybe win. Races though that have stayed as pure tossups include Illinois, Colorado, Washington and Nevada. In Illinois, Mark Kirk (R) seems to be gaining a few points but the Obama rally may have woken up the base enough to beat him. Colorado has an interesting race where Michael Bennett (D) is winning because he is pushing a woman's right to choose as a big issue and it seems to be working. Ken Buck (R) leads heavily among men while Bennett has a big lead with women. The race that should shock the pundits though is Nevada. All polls show a small Angle lead but what I see is a dead heat. The early voting in Nevada presents good results for the Democrats and people on the ground have mentioned how all the Democrats there are planning to vote.

There is one race though the Republicans must pick up to win the Senate. West Virginia and California both look stronger for the Democrats so if the Republicans want to win, they MUST win Washington State. Patti Murray (D) has put up a strong fight against Dino Rossi (R). Rossi has run statewide twice before and he lost both times. His 2004 run for Governor against Christine Greigoire (D) went into a recount. Washington is a high turnout state and some polls even suggest Republicans have less enthusiasm than Democrats. Also, cell phone only households are common in the heavily Democratic Seattle and many pollsters do not poll cellphone users. In Oregon's Gubernatorial race, it made a difference when John Kitzhaber (D) lead by 8 points with all phone users but 4 points with landlines only. Anyway, these Senate rankings here are my last ones before election day. Races such as California and West Virginia shift more towards the Democrats while Illinois shifts towards the Republicans (but it is still tossup in my book.) The Republicans are looking to pick up 7-9 seats because I do not see Rossi winning. Also, the names in parentheses are the names of the candidate from the incumbent party.  Bolded races mean the race may switch parties. Anyway, here are the rankings:

Safe D (6 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) Has O'Donnell ever had a shot here?

Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) A few polls showed a tight race in September but not anymore.
Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (1 seat)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

Lean D (3 seats)
California (Barbara Boxer) Polls showed a tightening race but Boxer's strong campaigning keeps it Democratic.
Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?
West Virginia (Joe Manchin) After proving how out of touch he is with West Virginia, John Raese (R) is slipping in the polls.

Tossup (3 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) PPP showed Ken Buck (R) up one point, showing how this race is a DEAD HEAT.

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Polls show Kirk leading by 4 but Chicago has strong GOTV.
Nevada (Harry Reid) Polls show Angle with a small lead here but early voting looks good for Reid.

Lean Republican (5 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) The extremist Joe Miller (R) is slipping but write in Lisa Murkwski Murkowski (R) looks like she will win instead.


Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate but the Aqua Buddha ad sent him down.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) Democrats were hoping for a surprise pickup here but polls show Toomey with a 5 point lead. GOTV probably cannot narrow that gap.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (8 seats)

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) Saying he will caucus with the Democrats if elected has not saved Charlie Crist (I) against Marco Rubio.
Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but family values are not a big issue this year.
Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) At least Lee Fisher (D) knew he would not win so he gave $300,000 to Ohio Democrats.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.

Races Democrats CAN Feel Optimistic About

 Go to any political website. Look in any politics section of the newspaper. Talk to any political analyst (including this one.) What do they tell you about the upcoming midterm election? They tell you that the Democrats will have a horrible night, they will lose the House, possibly lose 50 seats (that's the median for many projections now,) and almost lose the entire Senate. The Republicans also look to pick up numerous Gubernatorial races. Although I have seen people suggest that 2012 will be a good Democratic year, I am not looking too far ahead right now. Anyway, looking two years ahead in politics is like looking 200 years ahead into the future. Anyway, you probably see my diary title about Democrats having races to feel happy about. For the reasons I just listed about them losing the House and having a slim Senate majority, how can they be happy? Well, this post is about races where the Democrats can feel optimistic because although we ARE losing many seats, we are looking to pick up a few too. The Senate offers no pickup opportunities though except for Kentucky but most polls have shown Rand Paul (R) leading in the high single digits after Jack Conway's (D) ad criticizing Rand Paul's religion backfired. The Democrats are looking to pick up some Governorships and even a few House seats. I will start with the list of Governorships the Democrats have a strong chance at picking up, then I will go to the House seats:

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is retiring and former Governor Jerry Brown (D) is leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). Brown's campaigning in September and October was extremely skilled, making up for lost ground over the summer. He defeated Whitman in the debates. Then the housekeeper scandal surfaced and many voters viewed Whitman as mean while her strategy was to be friendly. Brown's closing arguments are even stronger, with an ad highlighting Whitman's similarities to Schwarzenegger and another ad saying how even Whitman admits Jerry Brown did well as Governor. A recent PPP poll showed Brown leading by nine points. That sounds right to me.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) was one of the most popular Govenors in the nation but she is retiring. It is a Repulican year but Connecticut is still a Democratic state. Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (D) is leading against businessman Tom Foley (R). Malloy won a primary against rich Ned Lamont (D) who challenged Benedict Arnold Joe Lieberman (I) in the primary in 2006 but lost the Senate race to him. Foley is not a bad campaigner but most polls show Malloy with a 5-7 point lead.

Florida: Charlie Crist (I) left the Governorship and ran for Senate. Both races looked competitive at first but Republicans have the lead in the Senate race. They were not able to seal the deal for the Gubernatorial race though. State CFO Alex Sink (D) is locked in a battle with Rick Scott (R) who should be in jail for fraud in his former company's billing practices. Scott is outspending Sink and the Republican year are keeping this race very close but Scott's ethical problems prevent him from gaining a clear lead. Sink is also personally popular and she is popular in the Tallahassee area which has been trending Republican recently. The polling pattern is that the leader changes every week and the leader has a 3 point lead. Scott has a small lead of 2 points now. The question is will he hold the lead or will the Democrats pick up this Governorship?

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) proved that Republicans can be elected Governor in Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona (R) needs to prove two Republican Governors can be elected consecutively. Unfortunately for him, the polling suggests that will not happen. Hawaii's 1st District Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) is leading by eight points in most polls. It is a Republican year but Obama is still popular in Hawaii. He recently cut an ad for Abercrombie which seems to be working.

Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) is retiring and may be a Presidential candidate in 2012. I do not expect him to win the nomination but anyway, this post is about the Governor's race. Former Senator and owner of Dayton Stores, Mark Dayton (D) is running for Governor against Tom Emmer (R). The Midwest is looking mostly bad for the Democrats but not in Minnesota. A recent poll showed Dayton leading by ten points. An independent candidate is on the ballot too though and independents can get high shares of the vote in Minnesota (Jesse Ventura (I) was Governor in the late 90's.) The independent may take more votes from Dayton than Emmer but Dayton should still win.

Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) was able to win easily despite Vermont's blue trend but Douglas is now retiring. Democrats should be holding a big lead in this race but instead, it is a close race between State Senator Peter Shumlin (D) and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R). Dubie is a moderate and Vermont likes its moderate Republicans AND this is a Republican year. Vermont is still trending blue though and most polls show Shumlin leading by a few points. Therefore, Shumlin should win but it will be close.

Now onto the House:

AZ-03: John Shadegg (R) vacated his seat and now Ben Quayle (R) is running for it against John Hulburd (D). This seat leans Republican but Quayle ran into problems when he called Obama "the worst president in history," and ran an ad where he played with kids that were not his. The race leans toward Quayle at the moment but since he is a flawed candidate, Democrats have a shot here. Having Quayle lose would help make it a good election night for the Democrats.

CA-03: Democrats are not favored to win this race but they have a strong shot at it. Obama barely won this district in 2008 and Dan Lungren (R), the incumbent still won. Conventional wisdom says that any Republican incumbent who survived 2008 can win in 2010. This year, the Democrats have Ami Bera (D) who has consistently out raised Lungren and campaigned extremely hard. Although most polls show Lungren with a small lead, Bera could pull an upset.

DE-AL: Michael Castle (R) vacated his house seat to run for Senate (and he later lost to Christine O'Donnell.) With a popular Republican no longer holding the House seat, Democrats nominated a strong candidate in John Carney (D). All polls show Glen Urquhart (R) behind in low double digits so this will be an easy Democratic pickup.

IL-10: Even Kerry won this suburban district by 6 points so the Democrats keep trying to find someone to win here. It has been almost impossible for them to beat former incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Now that Kirk vacated his seat to run for Senate, Democrats have a great chance at winning. Dan Seals (D) is running against teabagger Bob Dold (R) and we know what suburban voters think of extremist teabaggers. Still, this is a Republican year so the race is close. I expect a Seals win here though.

LA-02: Joe Cao (R) won in a 75% Obama district where Obama is still popular against corrupt Bill Jefferson (D) who put illegal contributions in his freezer. Cao is in trouble now though because he is up against Cedric Richmond (D) who has no money in his freezer. Yes, this is a Republican year, yes Cao is moderate but this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican unless the Democrat is as corrupt as Jefferson.

WA-08: Dave Reichert (R) is in a district that leans Democratic. He won in 2006 and 2008 which were strong Democratic years. Therefore, it appeared that this year, he would win because it is a Republican year. Apparently, he believed that so he got caught napping as Suzan DelBane (D) got closer in the polls. Reichert lost the endorsement of some of the area's major newspapers which were crucial to his winning in 2006 and 2008. Reichert is campaigning now but this race is getting closer. It will be a better election night than expected if Democrats can win seats like this one.

Overall, the Democrats will get kicked on November 2nd but they still have pickup opportunities in the Governorships and even seven in the House. It is hard to ignore all the losses the Democrats will face but there will be bright spots!
Feel free to share your thoughts on these races.

The Big Tossups of the Cycle

 The 2010 election season as many pundits know is a year where almost every race is competitive for both Democrats and Republicans. The pundits like to say it is a Republican year with Democrats being the party in trouble? Am I disagreeing with that? No I am not and the Democrats will definitely get a big beating and have a poor chance of holding the House. They will probably hold the Senate but the question is will they lose 6 or 9 seats out of the 10 Republicans must win to control the Senate? Unlike 2000 where the political races came down to Florida and 2004 where they came down to Ohio, this election is more like 2008 where control of the Senate will not come down to one seat. The same is true for the control of the House and the majority of Governorships which Republicans will definitely gain. The object of this post though is to highlight those big tossup races to watch during election night for both the Senate and the Governorships. Although those races are crucial to deciding who controls the Senate, the Republicans will not gain the Senate even if they pick up all the tossups. If they can get races such as Washington and California into the tossup column though, they will have a shot at picking up the Senate though. Anyway, here are those important Senate and Gubernatorial tossups that will keep you up on election night:

Senate Pure Tossups (4 seats)

Colorado: At first, this race appeared to be in Ken Buck's (R) column. Buck is a teabagger who has extreme beliefs such as he is better than any opponent of his who wears high heels and that being gay is a choice. Does he really think people would choose to be gay when people keep denying them rights and bullying them in school? Anyway, Michael Bennett (D), the former Colorado Superintendent of Schools is getting closer in the polls with a Rasmussen poll showing Buck ahead by only 2 points. He is helped by a great ad "extremes" where he talks about Colorado's extreme mountains, extreme rivers and extremists. At the end, he says that some extremes are good but not Ken Buck. Also, the Democratic base in Colorado may be waking up too. Overall, it appears that the combination of the base coming home and moderate voters realizing how extreme Buck is are the factors tilting the race toward Bennett. How far will it tilt though?

Illinois: If any race is within one point or heads for a recount, it will be this one. Unlike Colorado, this race has not experienced a shift toward either party. This race has always been a tossup with two not so popular candidates. Mark Kirk (R) may be moderate AND he may be from the crucial suburban collar counties BUT he lied about his Vietnam war record and yesterday he lied about legislation he passed. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis (D) is running in a heavily Democratic state where Obama is still popular BUT his family's bank is running into problems, making him look poorly. In Illinois, Democrats need to turn out heavily Democratic Cook County with Chicago and some Democratic suburbs. Giannoulis is not inspiring so having Obama come and help him is exactly what he needs. This campaign is very nasty and closepin sellers will become rich when people buy closepins to hold their noses when they vote.

Nevada: This is yet another race full of noseholding. Harry Reid (D) as the Majority leader in the Senate is getting blamed for Nevada's poor economy even though he has passed numerous legislation helping Nevada including a bill that prevented massive teacher layoffs. At first, Reid was in trouble against rich Sue Lowden (R) but after she suggested you should trade healthcare benefits for hens and roosters, she lost the Republican primary. Sharron Angle (R) won the primary and she is equally (or worse) as strange as Lowden. Angle wants to eliminate social security, the right of people to drink liquor (I bet the casino unions and the casinos love her,) and she wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Of course, you may have heard about her recently saying that Hispanics look Asian. Harry Reid is taking advantage of Angle and running ads attacking her whenever he can. Reid is still in a dead heat with Angle even while Nevadans are familiar with her extreme views. Overall, I think Reid pulls it off by 2 points because of Nevada's strong Democratic Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation and some Hispanics shifting to Reid after Angle's comment and an ad encouraging Hispanics not to vote.

Pennsylvania: If I had published this post on Tuesday, there is no way I would put this race on here. Most polls have showed fake moderate Pat Toomey (R) leading by 7 points...a few weeks ago. Former Admiral Joe Sestak (D) from the pivotal Philadelphia suburbs has been lying low. The polls have been narrowing ever so slowly but a new poll came out yesterday showing Sestak ahead. The poll is from PPP, a firm famous for getting the results of NJ Gov, MA Sen and the Maine anti gay rights initiative right on target (no pun intended, Target is in MN anyway.) Another poll came out today (not an internal for Sestak) from the Morning Call showing Sestak leading by three. This is similar to May when Sestak was trailing Arlen Specter (D) in the primary. Then Sestak came out of nowhere campaigning really hard. He won by eight points while pundits predicted a nailbiter. Sestak seems to be attempting a late surge again by slowly but surely running more ads until it explodes (which should be really soon.) Is Sestak ahead? Maybe he is ahead or maybe he is behind but it is certain this race is becoming closer. If the trend keeps up, more polls will show a close race and everyone else will view it as a Tossup.

Governor (2 races)

Florida: Although this race has been shifting, most of the time it has been close. State CFO Alex Sink (D) was always a shoo in for the Democratic nomination and I thought she would face Attorney General Bill McCollum (R). Rick Scott (R) leaped into the race though and playing on voter anger, won the Republican primary. Scott has money and is spending it while Sink does not have as much. She has been going negative against him which works until Scott starts spending again. Then he retakes the lead against her. Right now, Scott seems to be retrieving the lead again. He also shows how strong voter anger is right now because he is drawing support even though his company has been accused of fraud, the Government raided it and the company ended up paying 1.7 billion in settlements. Sink is highlighting Scott's past but will it work? Although the race always has about a 3 point lead for either candidate, this race will be very close. No, I am NOT looking at a 36 day hassle over yellow jacket...er butterfly ballots again but I am looking at a 2 point win by either candidate. It all depends on who can win the I-4 corridor with Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Oregon: Democrats have recently been bragging about a pacific firewall which I am worried about now that Patti Murray (D) in Washington State is leading by 3 points and Barbara Boxer (D) in California is leading by only 5. Oregon though has always been a close race. In Oregon, John Kitzhaber (D), the former Governor of Oregon who won with 64% in 1998 wants his old job back. It looked like an easy win until May when polls showed basketball player Chris Dudley (R) (who is famous for breaking the record of missing 13 consecutive free throws) in a tight race. Dudley has raised twice as much money as Kitzhaber and not until Labor Day did Kitzhaber campaign actively. His hard work seems to be paying off though because a few polls have shown Kitzhaber is taking a small lead. Still, Dudley has the money and it is a Republican friendly year. Also, Oregon is the only state that votes entirely by mail and many voters have mailed in their ballots. In the last two weeks though, Kitzhaber has had the wind at his back and Oregon is trending Democratic so Kitzhaber will probably pull it out but barely.

Do you think these races are all tossups? Should I add more races? Who do you think will win these races anway? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Senate Rankings: Who's Getting the Surge?

 Many pundits recently have been saying that there may be a Democratic surge. In the Gubernatorial races, there definitely is. In Ohio, Ted Strickland (D) was down by 8 points in most polls against John Kaisch (R) but most polls show Strickland down by about 2. In Illinois, Pat Quinn (D) was losing by 10 points to extremist conservative Bill Brady (R) who is anti abortion even in cases of rape. Quinn started airing ads highlighting Brady's extremist views in the Chicago suburbs, an area that shifted toward the Democrats in the 90's due to social issues. Now Quinn is down by only a few points. The shift is happening with seats in the Senate too.

 In New York, Kirstin Gillibrand (D) was appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. Joe DioGuardi (R) with money got the nomination over David Malpass (R). At first, polls showed a close race but Gillibrand now has a clear lead. By, the way, Kara DioGuardi is related to Joe, she is his daughter. In Connecticut, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) was expected to win easily against Linda McMahon (R) from WWE who is very rich. A week ago, polls showed the race tightened up with Blumenthal leading by only 6 points. Then a few new polls came out this week showing Blumenthal with a lead of about 12 points so this race is definitely heading back in his direction. This shift happened because he previously did not campaign strongly but he is now actively campaigning. In Washington, most polls show Patti Murray (D) with a lead over her challenger Dino Rossi (R). In California, the Democratic shift is also apparent. Barbara Boxer (D) is leading in most polls against the fired CEO of HP Carly Fiorina (R). Boxer is leading because she pulled a Karl Rove and used Fiorina's strength as a CEO as her weakness. Overall, most of the races where the Democrats are improving are races where the Democrats started campaigning.

Republicans also have their own surge in some races too. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold (D) was expected to win reelection easily. Then Ron Johnson (R), another rich Republican won the primary and started spending his money. Feingold was never popular with the Democratic base because he often votes against pieces of Democratic legislation that are not liberal enough. In West Virginia, pundits expected Governor Joe Manchin (D) to easily hold the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. Although Manchin is very popular, John Raese (R) has said that Manchin will be a rubber stamp for Obama and this strategy has caused Raese to obtain a small lead in the polls. Also, some polls are suggesting that Sharron Angle (R) who wants to eliminate social security, the Department of Education and the Department of Energy is surging too. I need to see a few more polls to confirm this though.

Overall, the Democratic surge seems to be in Democratic states while the Republican surge is in Republican and swing states. This suggests that the Democratic base is waking up now and they are entering the likely voter pool. An excited Democratic base will not save every seat of course but it will prevent Republicans from winning in Democratic states where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current prediction for Senate pickups is a 7-9 seat gain for the Republicans. By the way, bolded races show races that might switch parties. Now off to the rankings:

Safe D (5 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) O' Donnell keeps getting crazier and less popular. A poll showed her down by 19 points.


Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (2 seats)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) I strongly considered putting this seat in Solid D.
Lean D (2 seats)

California (Barbara Boxer) Fiorina is too conservative for California.

Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?

Tossup (4 seats)

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Can moderate Mark Kirk (R) beat Illinois's Democratic lean?

Nevada (Harry Reid) Wow Nevada, are you really considering electing social security and Department of Education hater Sharron Angle?

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) I know this race should be Lean R but polls show Sestak is getting closer now that he is running more ads.

West Virginia (Joe Manchin) John Raese (R) is running a strong race against Manchin but Manchin should pull it off if he campaigns hard.


Lean Republican (4 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) Ken Buck (R) may be a big teabagger but he is leading.

Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate against extremist Rand Paul but Kentucky is too conservative.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.



Likely Republican (9 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) Either Lisa Murkowski (R) will win with her write in or the extremist Miller will prevail.

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) With Charlie Crist (I) bleeding support to Meek (D), Rubio takes the lead.

Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but apparently, most Louisiana voters do not really care about family values.

Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) Lee Fisher (D) needs to go back to campaign school. Enough said.



Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.


Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.

Senate Rankings: Democrats Swap Washington for Wisconsin

 It has been a month since my last Senate rankings. Has the outlook improved for the Democrats? Yes and no. In early September, all eyes were on the "left coast" that supposedly would push out Patti Murray (D) Washington and Barbara Boxer (D) California. Recent polls though show that the candidates are back in the lead including an LA Times poll showing Boxer ahead by 8. In Washington, a CNN poll showed Murray leading by 9 and even Republican leaning pollsters such as Survey USA and Rasmussen showed Murray ahead. Also, Christine O'Donnell (R) surprised everyone in winning her primary in Delaware and she is challenging Chris Coons (D). Most polls show him leading by about 10 points and with new quotes coming out about her every week (like how she does not believe in evolution,) she is not likely to gain momentum among non extremist voters. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Republicans are finding more opportunities outside of the West Coast. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold (D) suddenly found himself 6 points below Ron Johnson (R) in a recent CNN poll. Feingold is known for voting against many Democratic bills because they are not liberal enough so he might be facing backlash from the base. Also in West Virginia, popular Governor Joe Manchin (D) is facing a tight race against John Raese (R) which shows how West Virginia voters are suddenly disliking their Governor because of the (D) next to his name.

In other bad news for Democrats, there were some races they thought would be closer but their hopes failed to materialize. In Indiana, Dan Coats (R) ran against Brad Ellsworth (D) who was a moderate rural candidate running against a former incumbent lobbyist. Unfortunately, Indiana was too Republican. In Missouri, Robin Carnahan (D) who was reelected with 61% of the vote to Missouri Treasurer ran against conservative Roy Blunt (R). Yes, the Roy Blunt who was the former Majority Whip. Many pundits thought once Carnahan started campaigning, voters would see how conservative Blunt was but Obama is unpopular in Missouri and Blunt is connecting Carnahan to Obama.

Also, I will be changing the formatting of the Senate Rankings. I used to list the races most likely to switch but now I will be saying whether a race is Safe D, Likely D, Lean D or Toss Up and vice versa. Also, look at the time, it is a month until election day. Therefore, I will be posting my updated Senate Rankings weekly because a week in October in politics is as long as a month. The candidate listed is the one running for the seat in the incumbent party. Also, the races bolded are ones the Republicans have a chance at stealing from the Democrats. Right now, the Republicans are looking at a 6-8 seat gain. Now here are the rankings:

Safe D (4 seats)
Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.
New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.
Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (2 seats)
Delaware (Chris Coons) Voters have not seen the worst of O'Donnell yet but Castle can steal votes from Coons if Castle writes in.
New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) Joe DiGuardi is tough but Gillibrand should win.

Lean D (4 seats)
California (Barbara Boxer) Fiorina is too conservative for California.
Connecticut (Mark Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but popular Blumenthal should pull off a win.
Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?
West Virginia (Joe Manchin) John Raese (R) is running a strong race against Manchin but Manchin should pull it off if he campaigns hard.

Tossup (4 seats)
Colorado (Michael Bennett) Ken Buck (R) may be a conservative tea party member but he has a small lead.
Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Can moderate Mark Kirk (R) beat Illinois's Democratic lean?
Nevada (Harry Reid) Wow Nevada, are you really considering electing social security and Department of Education hater Sharron Angle?
Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) I know this race should be Lean R but polls show Sestak is getting closer now that he is running more ads.

Lean Republican (5 seats)
Florida (Marco Rubio) With Charlie Crist (I) bleeding support to Meek (D), Rubio takes the lead.
Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate against extremist Rand Paul but Kentucky is too conservative.
Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (7 seats)
Alaska (Joe Miller) Either Lisa Murkowski (R) will win with her write in or the extremist Miller will prevail.
Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.
Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)
Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but it is not enough for Melancon.
North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.
Ohio (Rob Portman) Lee Fisher (D) needs to go back to campaign school. Enough said.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)
Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.
Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.
Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.
Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.
North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.
South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.
South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

California U.S House Rankings

 As Michael Barone put it, "Between 1995 and 2005, politics was trench warfare where each side tried to have stronger enthusiasm. Now we are in an open field." Barone is correct because of all the voter shifts right now. 1995 to 2005 were years with 50-50 divides (except for Clinton's win in 1996 where although he had 49% of the vote, he probably would have received a few more percentage points had Ross Perot not run.) The open field politics are clearly showing themselves now with the independents running to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, giving Democrats a 15 seat Senate pickup, a 54 seat House pickup and the Presidency. Unfortunately, the open field politics did not stop when the Democrats had the independents. The Republicans are now gaining momentum and it is not just because of lethargic Democrats. Many independents are shifting and the anti status quo view is showing itself in primaries. Incumbents in both parties like Arlen Specter (D) in Pennsylvania and Bob Bennett (R) in Utah are losing their primaries. Republicans are looking to flip more than 40 house seats, taking the House from the Democrats.

One place you may expect to see all the upheaval is California. The statewide offices are definitely contested where fired HP CEO Carly Fiorina hopes to end Barbara Boxer's (D) hard work in the Senate. Also, Republicans are contesting the Lieutenant Governorship and the Attorney General spot. One place though in California where there is not much upheaval is the U.S House districts in California. There are a few slightly competitive races like CA-45 where Mary Bono (R) faces the openly gay Palm Springs mayor. In a Democratic year, the Democrats would have more opportunities. Most of the Democrats now are in safe districts so the Republicans cannot win those seats. An exception is CA-11 where Jerry McNerney (D) won in 2006 against corrupt corporate puppet Richard Pombo (R). The district is growing more Democratic but Republicans are seeing an opportunity in Mormon David Harmer (R) who ran unsucessfully in 2009 for CA-10 against John Garamendi (D). Here are the rankings:

32 Safe D
1 Likely D
0 Lean D
1 Tossup
2 Lean R
3 Likely R
14 Safe R

Link for map of California's congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=CA


CA-1 Mike Thompson (D) Safe D
Great representative in a great district. What else can I say?

CA-2 Wally Herger (R) Likely R
Saying someone is a great American for calling himself, "A right wing terrorist," really goes against the tea party idea of respecting the country and the Constitution. Still, this district is too conservative and this is a Republican year.

CA-3 Dan Lungren (R) Lean R
Lungren won by 5 points last year so Democrats are now actively contesting this race. Although Democrats have a strong candidate, this is the wrong year and Obama did only win this district by 2 points. Although it is trending Democratic, if Lungren cannot be knocked off in a Democratic year, when can he lose?

CA-4 Tom McClintock (R) Solid R
Although he is a carpetbagger and extreme conservative, enough voters here do not mind.

CA-5 Doris Matsui (D) Safe D
One of the only safe places for Democrats in the Central Valley

CA-6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Safe D
My home district!

CA-7 George Miller (D) Safe D
Takes all the really Democratic areas in Contra Costa/Solano Counties.

CA-8 Nancy Pelosi (D) Safe D
No Republican wins here. The contest is the primary if Pelosi retires next year.

CA-9 Barbara Lee (D) Safe D
Most Democratic district in California and most liberal in the country.

CA-10 John Garamendi (D) Safe D
Won 53% of the vote in a 65% Obama district in 2009. David Harmer (R), the challenger from last year is not running here again. Garamendi should be fine.

CA-11 Jerry McNerney (D) Toss Up/Tilt Democratic
Democrats have been moving into this district from the Bay Area and they helped topple corrupt Richard Pombo (R) in 2006. McNerney won again by 10 points in 2008, not the best margin in a Democratic year. David Harmer (R) is now moving into the 11th to run there. This is the right year for Republicans and Harmer also lives in the San Ramon Valley, cutting away McNerney's advantage there. This is one of the races that will decide control of the House.

CA-12 Jackie Speier (D) Safe D
Great congresswoman in a great district.

CA-13 Pete Stark (D) Safe D
Not much else to say

CA-14 Anna Eshoo (D) Safe D
Eshoo is a great congresswoman and she is not leaving soon!

CA-15 Mike Honda (D) Safe D
Tom Campbell's (R) old district but its Republican tradition is gone.

CA-16 Zoe Lofgren (D) Safe D
Another easy win for the Democrats.

CA-17 Sam Farr (D) Safe D
The district with Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties is not changing hands.

CA-18 Dennis Cardoza (D) Likely D
This is Gary Condit's (D) old district. Condit is famous for having an affair in 2001. Cardoza has been safe the last few elections but Republicans found Mike Berryhill (R) from the Turlock Irrigation Board. Although this is a Republican year, the district's large Hispanic population makes this district too Democratic.

CA-19 OPEN George Radanovich (R) Solid R
There was a big primary here on the Republican side with corrupt former CA-11 congressman Richard Pombo (R) losing to Jeff Denham (R) from California's 12th State Senate district. Despite McCain only winning 52% of the vote here, it should be no contest in the general election.

CA-20 Jim Costa (D) Likely D
This is another district with a strong Republican challenger but due to its even larger Hispanic population than the 18th, Costa should win.

CA-21 Devin Nunes (R) Safe R
Pluarity Hispanic but still a safe Republican district.

CA-22 Kevin McCarthy (R) Safe R
Bakersfield's district and the most Republican district in California. No surprise.

CA-23 Lois Capps (D) Safe D
Capps is a great congresswoman in a great district. What can beat the California coast? Her district is safe.

CA-24 Elton Gallegy (R) Safe R
Once he retires, this district will have a big fight but for now, Gallegy has a hold on it.

CA-25 Buck McKeon (R) Safe R
Obama won 50% of the vote here but until McKeon retires, this district is staying Republican.

CA-26 David Dreier (R) Solid R
The district is trending Democratic quickly but Dreier is moderate and entrenched.

CA-27 Brad Sherman (D) Solid D
The San Fernando Valley used to be marginal but not anymore.

CA-28 Howard Berman (D) Solid D
Another heavily Democratic district

CA-29 Adam Schiff (D) Solid D
Pasadena used to be Republican but it is now Democratic.

CA-30 Henry Waxman (D) Solid D
Right in Westside LA, Waxman is not going anywhere.

CA-31 Xavier Beccara (D) Solid D
Solidly Democratic.

CA-32 Judy Chu (D) Solid D
Chu should worry about a Hispanic primary challenger but not a Republican.

CA-33 OPEN Diane Watson (D) Solid D
Karen Bass (D) should be elected here easily.

CA-34 Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Solid D
The first Hispanic congresswoman will have no trouble.

CA-35 Maxine Waters (D) Solid D
Waters may have ethical problems but this is one of the most Democratic districts in the country.

CA-36 Jane Harman (D) Safe D
Despite her moderate views, Harman's money will keep away any primary challenge.

CA-37 Laura Richardson (D) Safe D
No problems here for Richardson

CA-38 Grace Napolitano (D) Safe D
Another safe Democratic district.

CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) Safe D
This district used to be marginal but it is now safely Democratic.

CA-40 Ed Royce (R) Safe R
Although McCain barely won here, Royce is still safe.

CA-41 Jerry Lewis (R) Safe R
Longtime Representative Lewis is going nowhere.

CA-42 Gary Miller (R) Safe R
The district may be competitive in the future but it is Republican now.

CA-43 Joe Baca (D) Safe D
If you were wondering why there are so many Republican districts are in the Inland Empire, it is because the Democrats are here.

CA-44 Ken Calvert (R) Likely R
Calvert's district with Riverside in it is trending Democratic with Obama winning by 2 points after a Kerry loss of 19 points in 2004. In 2008, Calvert was caught off guard and nearly lost to Bill Hedrick (D). Hedrick is back again but he has had problems raising money and Calvert is ready for a challenge. Also, this is the wrong year for Hedrick but in 2012, Democrats will have a better shot.

CA-45 Mary Bono Mack (R) Lean R
Mack was elected in 2002 after her husband Sonny Bono (R) passed away. She has kept a somewhat moderate voting record and has been reelected easily. Some factors are making it harder for her though because the district is trending Democratic quickly with areas like Palm Springs and Moreno Valley. The openly gay mayor of Palm Springs, Steve Pougnet is challenging her. Although he is a strong candidate, this is the wrong year.

CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) Safe R
Another SoCal district trending Democratic but still strong for Rohrabacher.

CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) Likely D
Sanchez has been reelected easily in the past but she is facing Van Tran (R), a Vietnamese State Assemblyman. Although he is popular with the Vietnamese community, Sanchez is also popular with them and is expected to do well with the district's large Hispanic population. Although this is a Republican year and Bush won this district by one point, the district is still too Democratic for Van Tran.

CA-48 John Campbell (R) Safe R
Yes, Irvine is in this district but the rest of the district is Republican.

CA-49 Darrell Issa (R) Safe R
One of the more Republican district in SoCal.

CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) Likely R
Francine Busby (D), two time challenger for this seat is running again. Bilbray (R) beat her in a 2006 special election 49%-46% and general election in a Democratic year 53%-43%. In this Republican year, it is even more difficult for Busby.

CA-51 Bob Filner (D) Safe D
So this is where many of the San Diego Democrats live.

CA-52 Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) Safe R
Yes, this is the son of Duncan Hunter (R) who was here since 1980.

CA-53 Susan Davis (D) Safe D
Davis beat Bilbray in 2000 but her district is too Democratic now for a successful Republican challenge.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any rankings you want to share? Do you want more information? Please comment and share your thoughts.

Why Michael Castle IS the Next Lisa Murkowski

 You may have seen my recent post titled  Why Michael Castle is not the Next Lisa Murkowskiwhere I proceeded to talk about why Michael Castle (R) would win the Delaware Senatorial primary. Lisa Murkowski (R) was the establishment candidate in Alaska and Joe Miller (R) came from behind with Palin's endorsement to win. Castle has never lost an election in Delaware and he has held statewide office for 30 years including holding  Delaware's U.S House seat since 1992. He was running for Ted Kaufman's (D) open Senate seat. The Democratic candidate, Chris Coons (D) from Newcastle county is a strong candidate but was losing to Castle in the polls. Most pundits predicted Castle would just have a small primary against teabagger Christine O' Donnell (R) and then continue holding statewide office. Most pundits also believed that Delaware was too moderate. O' Donnell had already run statewide and lost to Joe Biden (D) in 2008 by about 30 points, losing every county including conservative Sussex County.  Even last Friday when Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint (R) and the Tea Party Express endorsed O' Donnell, most pundits predicted a Castle win. The PPP poll last Sunday showed O' Donnell ahead by 3, the only sign of the future results. PPP has a reputation for being nearly spot on in the primaries. Most Democrats are overjoyed with O' Donnell's 53%-47% win, not because they like her positions (she is extremely conservative.) Most polls show her losing to Coons and a recent Rasmussen poll showed her down by 11. Unless Coons makes a major gaffe or has a major scandal, this race is basically his to lose. Although it is pretty clear who will win, the question I will answer is why did all the tea party figures and organizations succeed in Delaware which is supposed to be a moderate state?

Surges happen often in politics. In the 2008 primary between Clinton and Obama, surges happened in almost every state. The pattern was that Clinton would lead until two weeks before the election when Obama tied the race. Then four days before the election, the tide would turn and Clinton would get the lead. This was due to voters who went to one candidate after a big momentum bounce but as the momentum faded, the voters shifted back to the original candidate. I have seen too many races this year that prove the coming home factor is not strong. For example, the establishment candidate in Kentucky Trey Grayson (R) was down in the polls and voters did not come home to him. For Castle, pundits thought it would be different because he is so entrenched in Delaware. They predicted voters would realize they were actually saying no to Castle so they change their minds quickly. O' Donnell's surge though happened four days before the election which was late enough before voters would realize they were voting against Castle. Besides the money from the teabaggers, O'Donnell also won over voters by portraying herself as an outsider so voters viewed her as the candidate who will "take our country back" instead of the candidate who will "take our country back to the extremists."

The second reason is that Delaware is a closed primary which means only Republicans can vote in it, instead of Independents and Democrats. Although most voters in the Republican primaries are Republicans, Independents can make a big difference often. When McCain ran for President in 2000, he stayed in the race for awhile because he attracted Independents in the Republican Primaries. In the 2008 Republican primaries, McCain's appeal to Independents gave him the early momentum which gave him the nomination. In Delaware, Castle was leading the polls against Coons because Castle appealed to Independents. If Castle had realized O'Donnell would be a formidable challenger, he could have run a campaign to get Independents to register as Republicans before the registration deadline. However, Castle did not and may have believed he would win because he has never lost an election before. Even if Delaware's Republicans were more moderate, he may have won which leads to the third reason he lost.

Delaware's Republicans are too conservative for Castle. Wait, Delaware is a Northeast State so the Republicans are supposed to be moderates, right? Although there are definitely are moderate Republicans in northeastern states like New Jersey and Connecticut, Delaware is a little different. Yes, Newcastle County (Wilmington) is basically a suburb of Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs are known for moderate Republicans. Delaware though also is culturally a southern state outside of the Philadelphia suburbs. It is on the Delmarva peninsula which has very conservative whites and most of them are religious. The two southern counties in Delaware are Kent and Sussex Counties which are also fast growing. Sussex County is infamous for not letting a Jewish girl speak about her religion at her graduation speech. Although Newcastle County has about 62% of Delaware's population, Newcastle County is more Democratic than the rest of the state. Therefore, Newcastle County cast about half of the Republican primary votes last Tuesday. Even if the Republicans in southern Delaware were conservative, how did O'Donnell pick up enough votes in Newcastle County to prevent Castle's margin  there from carrying him to victory? In 2006 and 2008, Democrats made major gains in the Northeast with elected offices but also convinced many moderate Republicans to become Democrats because of Bush's unpopularity and the Republican image of extreme evangelical Christians. With many moderate Republicans gone, the Republican party has become more conservative. Yes, Castle had the votes to win but those voters could not vote in his primary.

Overall, Castle lost because this was a real surge, Independents could not cross over and the Republican party in Delaware has become too conservative. Many pundits have suggested that the Republican party was becoming more conservative because of all the Independents moving to the Democrats two years ago. This could explain why the Independents now are leaning more towards the Republicans because those voters are going back to their original voting habits. They just have not changed their registration yet. The Republican party needs to convince these voters to return to the Republican party or the Republicans will continue to nominate extremists candidates like Christine O'Donnell.

What do you think about the recent events in the Delaware Senate race? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Why Michael Castle is not the Next Lisa Murkowski

 On August 24th in Alaska, pundits like me witnessed a large political upset. Everyone expected Lisa Murkowski (R) to beat back the primary challenge from lawyer Joe Miller (R) but instead he won by 51%-49%. Miller was not a high profile candidate challenging Murkowski but this is the year of the political upsets. In Utah, incumbent Bob Bennett (R) lost the primary for Senate and so did establishment candidate Trey Grayson (R) in Kentucky for Senate. Still, Murkowksi did not lose merely because she was a member of the establishment. Six years ago, Murkowski was not considered moderate but by today's standards, she is due to her pro choice views. This definitely affected her standing among voters. Then Palin came along and endorsed Miller. In past primaries, once Palin gives her endrosement, the candidate surges in the Republican primary. A classic example is when Palin endorsed Nikki Haley (R) who is running for South Carolina's Governorship. After that primary, Palin's endorsement seemed to not be the magic touch. In Georgia, her endorsed Gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel (R) lost to Nathan Deal (R). Still, her endorsement is powerful in Alaska, her home state. Also, the tea party pumped money into Alaska with a relatively cheap media market. The Palin factor, the tea party factor, the anti incumbent year and Murkowski's moderate views all together caused her to lose.

Some Republicans are hoping they can pull off another upset in Delaware. Ted Kaufman (D) is vacating his Senate seat so moderate and longtime U.S House member Michael Castle (R) is running for it. Castle is also a former Governor. Most polls show him beating Chris Coons (D) from New Castle County. Castle though is facing an obstacle that can potentially become big. Christine O'Donnell (R) is running far to the right of Castle in the primary. A Rasmussen poll shows Coons beating O'Donnell by 11 points so if she wins the primary, the Republicans lose a pickup chance. Recently, O'Donnell has been grabbing momentum. About a week ago, the tea party express decided to shift to Delaware to bring down Castle. Last Friday, O'Donnell picked up Palin's endorsement, tea party king Jim De Mint's endorsement and the NRA. Castle fits every definition of an incumbent and most pundits have said this is an anti incumbent year. Still, I think Castle will win for three important reasons:

    This is strong momentum for O'Donnell but is coming too late for her. In Alaska, Joe Miller had received Palin's endorsment much earlier than four days before the primary. In political races, momentum can change quickly but it takes time for it to change into actual votes. Most voters do not change their minds every time they see one positive news story about the opponent. If the endorsements had happened a week earlier, it will have given more voters time to change their minds and help O' Donnell. Many voters though have already made up their minds.

    Michael Castle and Lisa Murkowski were both incumbents but different kinds. Michael Castle has served in statewide office since 1981 when he became Lieutenant Governor. He has been reelected easily as a U.S House member. In 2008, he won 61% of the vote even as Delaware trends toward the left and voted 62% for Obama. Lisa Murkowski though served in statewide office since 2002 and her father Frank Murkowski (R) appointed her to the Senate seat. Many voters viewed this as nepotism and Murkowski won by only three points in 2004. She never truly connected with Alaska voters while Castle has never lost an election in Delaware. Yes Castle is a true incumbent but since he is so well known and liked, it may be too difficult for enough voters to say no to him.

   The final and most important reason is that Delaware's Republicans are different from Alaska's. Alaska is a state with many rural conservative Republicans who like teabaggers like Jim De Mint and Sarah Palin. Hunting is very prominent in Alaska too. Delaware though is a very different state. It is divided into New Castle County with Wilmington and Philadelphia suburbs. Sussex County which is rural and conservative and Kent County which is a mix of the two. Most of the state's votes are cast in New Castle County. Delaware is a state where the teabaggers are unpopular and Palin definitely made McCain lose some votes here in 2008. Delaware is not a big hunting state either. Republicans in Delaware are moderate and more urban, not like extremist conservatives. If O' Donnell wanted to win, she should have received Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie's (R) endorsement. He is popular in northeastern suburbs. Christie already endorsed Castle though. The endorsements may help O' Donnell in Sussex County but may hurt more in the Wilmington area where she needs votes.

Overall, the Delaware race does have some similarities to the Alaska primary because of the anti establishment candidate getting the endorsements from the teabaggers. The differences though are that the endorsements came too late, Castle is more popular and Delaware is a state where the teabaggers are just too extreme for most voters. Remember that even with the momentum in Alaska, Miller won by only two points.

Senate Rankings: August is never good for Democrats

 Another August come and gone with Labor Day leaving too. This means that summer is officially over and if you live in the East Coast, you will agree. Everyone knows August as the month where people go on vacation and/or want to install air conditioners. August also has another name on it that not many people mention: the bad month for Democrats and/or Obama. In August of 2004, Kerry was down in the polls due to the swift boat ads. In August of 2006, the generic ballot was tied. In August of 2007, Hillary was crushing Obama. In August of 2008, Palin was nominated and tied the race (until she crashed of course but that comes later.) In August of 2009, people came to town hall meetings to parrot talking points by Republicans that denounced the healthcare bill and spread lies about death panels. Now August of 2010 is a month where Obama's poll numbers are low because the economy was supposed to recover in a day. Rome was built in a day too. Also, this August showed bad polling numbers for many of the Senate candidates.

Yes, I am finally getting to the subject of this post: Senate races. August is always a bad month people so we should not be too worried about losing the Senate because it always gets a little better. Still, my Senate rankings are going in the Republicans' favor because my rankings show the way the races stand now. Many races though will start seeing action soon but were quiet in August. Alaska is an exception where Lisa Murkowski (R) was primaried out by Joe Miller (R), a teabagger who makes the race closer. It is not close enough to put in the rankings though. Other races that are shifting are Florida Senate with Kendrick Meek (D) taking votes from Charlie Crist (I) who may caucus with the Democrats if he wins. Other races with movement include Pennsylvania and Ohio. I am not keeping Nevada on the list although some pundits suggested Republicans will vote for extremist Sharron Angle (R) holding their nose. As I see Republicans like Nevada's first lady Dawn Gibbons endorse Harry Reid (D), I just cannot put this race on the line. I have also removed Missouri from the list although Carnahan can make it closer once she reminds Missouri why 61% of the voters supported her in 2008. I am predicting a 6 seat pickup for the Republicans. Enough talk about the races though, here are the rankings with a description on each race:

1. North Dakota OPEN Bryon Dorgan (D)
North Dakota is known for electing personally popular politicians regardless of the party. Governor John Hoeven (R) is anything but an exception to this rule.
Ranking: Safe Republican
Previous Ranking: 1

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)
One of the Democrats' last holdouts in statewide offices was Arkansas. Lincoln won a primary against Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) when most pundits thought he would win. She will definitely not have the same luck while running against Rep. John Boozemen (R).
Ranking: Likely Republican
Previous Ranking: 2

3. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)
Bayh jumped out of the race as Dan Coats (R) jumped into the race. Coats is known as a former incumbent, a lobbyist and this is supposed to be anti incumbent year, right? Actually, it is an anti Democratic incumbent year. The Democrats nominated sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) from Evansville in southern Indiana, a critical area for Democrats to win so they can win statewide. The campaign has not gotten into full mode. Although Ellsworth should narrow the margin a bit, it is the wrong year and he is not doing well enough in the urban areas.
Ranking: Likely Republican
Previous Ranking: 5

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)
Rep. Michael Castle (R) is running against New Castle County Exec. Chris Coons (D) and due to Castle's  popularity, it looked like an easy win for him. Now the race suddenly got more interesting. The Tea Party Express which kicked out Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska now is supporting Christine O'Donnell (R) in the primary against Castle. They are going to pour in their money. Most polls show Coons winning against O'Donnell so if she wins the primary, expect the race to fall down the list. If Castle wins, Coons is still in trouble.
Ranking: Lean Republican
Previous Ranking: 4

5. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)
First, the Senate race that kept changing was Florida. Although Florida does keep shifting, so does Pennsylvania. First, Specter switched parties and became a Democrat. Then congressman Joe Sestak (D) from the Philadelphia suburbs challenged him. Sestak won by 8 points, shocking the Philadelphia establishment. Sestak won by using an ad blitz but now he is sinking the polls against Pat Toomey (R). Toomey primaried Specter in 2004, ran as a conservative and lost. Toomey is now running to the center and Sestak is doing...nothing. He plans to do an ad blitz really close to election day. I do not think it will work this time though because most voters will have made up their minds.
Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)
Bennett (D) faced a challenge from the left and Bill Clinton in Andrew Romanoff (D) in the primary. Bennett survived, defying a late surge for Romanoff. Now Bennett faces Ken Buck (R). Although Buck is leading by a few points, he is a prone gaffe machine who rivals Sharron Angle. Buck said that the difference between Jane Norton (his primary opponent) and him was that he did not wear high heels. Also, Buck said he liked the education system of the 1950's. He did not say which part of the country's education system. Did he mean the South? Bennett has not spent much time defining Buck yet which Bennett needs to do if he wants to win.
Previous Ranking: 8
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)
This race is another one where the leader in the polls keeps switching. First, Mark Kirk (R) from the Chicago suburbs was winning against Alexi Giannoulis (D). Then Kirk lied about his military credentials...more than once. Giannoulis though has problems with his family's bank. Therefore, both candidates are tied. Kirk is a moderate and it is a Republican year. Giannoulis though will get the support of the strong Democratic party in Chicago and Illinois's Democratic lean. This is a race that should have a recount if there is one but I expect Giannoulis to win by 1-2 points.
Status: Pure Toss Up
Previous Ranking: Not on top 10

8. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)
This race used to be much higher up in the rankings. Now with Kendrick Meek's (D) primary win, this race is shifting in Marco Rubio's (R) favor. Charlie Crist (I) used to be leading in the polls but Meek received a post primary bounce. It also though could be a permanent boost. Whatever it was, Crist lost his lead in the polls and is now a few points behind Rubio. It may be a temporary bounce for Meek but even so, Crist is getting squeezed from both sides of the aisle.
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican
Previous Ranking: 4

9. Washington Patti Murray (D)
I had a diary on the county baselines of Washington recently where I mentioned how Washington State is the New Jersey of the west. Here, Republicans always think they finally have the candidate but the voters always side with the Democrat. In New Jersey though, that trend broke with Chris Christie (R) winning the Governorship last year. Now former moderate Dino Rossi (R) is vying for statewide office for the third time. Rossi first ran for Governor and lost after a long recount in 2004. He ran for Governor again in 2008 and lost by a not so recountable margin, 53%-47%. Washington State has an interesting primary system where all candidates regardless of party run and the top two vote getters advance to the general election. Murray got 46% in that election and since it was not a high turnout election for Democrats, this looks like a close race.
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic
Previous Ranking: Not on Top 10

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)
I was going to put a race like Wisconsin in for this spot but this morning, I saw a poll showing the two candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D) tied. Although Conway is not from the crucial coal counties in east Kentucky, he is a strong candidate from Louisville which Democrats rely on now to win in Kentucky. Paul is well known for outrageous comments like suggesting businesses should decide whether African Americans can come and that Kentucky has no drug problem. Although Paul is a poor candidate and Conway is a good one, the year and Kentucky's Republican lean is probably too strong for Conway to beat.
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican
Previous Ranking: 10

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Do you want more information on a certain race? Please feel free to comment on this post.

California Baselines

  With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California's Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman's $104 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Once Jerry Brown starts campaigning and the unions supporting him spend more money too, he should be able to pick up a few points. Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Anyway, this is going to be a close race. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.

The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/california_map.html clearer map of California

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2008 results

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_general/ag.pdf 2006 Attorney General results

(click for whole image)

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%
Blue: Brown 56%-69%
Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

County Names, Brown, Meg Whitman, Percentages

Alameda 281,992 122,008 70%-30%

Alpine 228 223 51%-49%

Amador 4,056 8,215 33%-67%

Butte 25,182 38,977 39%-61%

Calaveras 5,175 10,045 34%-66%

Colusa 1,249 2,942 30%-70%

Contra Costa 173,524 121,084 59%-41%

Del Norte 2,407 3,788 39%-61%

El Dorado 20,174 40,197 33%-67%

Fresno 59,988 117,755 34%-66%

Glenn 1,766 4,655 28%-72%

Humboldt 22,494 19,085 54%-46%

Imperial 12,844 12,389 51%-49%

Inyo 1,999 3,547 36%-64%

Kern 41,243 110,109 27%-73%

Kings 6,561 16,259 29%-71%

Lake 8,346 8,312 50%-50%

Lassen 1,801 5,624 24%-76%

Los Angeles 1,246,840 888,300 58%-42%

Madera 7,606 20,002 28%-72%

Marin 62,269 29,101 68%-32%

Mariposa 1,975 4,315 31%-69%

Mendocino 16,088 10,029 62%-38%

Merced 16,694 24,938 40%-60%

Modoc 664 2,209 23%-77%

Mono 1,593 2,027 44%-56%

Monterey 49,391 34,965 59%-41%

Napa 21,903 16,864 57%-43%

Nevada 14,975 21,196 41%-59%

Orange 267,713 482,183 36%-64%

Placer 36,548 76,429 32%-68%

Plumas 2,412 4,756 34%-66%

Riverside 165,563 255,181 39%-61%

Sacramento 163,902 188,955 46%-54%

San Benito 6,553 6,309 51%-49%

San Bernadino 161,731 223,802 42%-58%

San Diego 342,077 458,103 43%-57%

San Francisco 188,722 60,745 76%-24%

San Joaquin 58,303 78,398 43%-57%

San Luis Obisbo 34,966 51,584 40%-60%

San Mateo 125,577 71,561 64%-36%

Santa Barbara 55,411 58,603 49%-51%

Santa Clara 245,302 187,329 57%-43%

Santa Cruz 56,957 26,071 69%-31%

Shasta 13,847 38,406 27%-73%

Sierra 381 913 29%-71%

Siskiyou 4,703 9,314 34%-66%

Solano 56,297 48,735 54%-46%

Sonoma 94,217 54,860 63%-37%

Stanislaus 39,683 65,299 38%-62%

Sutter 6,106 15,357 28%-72%

Tehama 4,366 11,598 27%-73%

Trinity 1,717 2,456 41%-59%

Tulare 17,799 50,792 26%-74%

Tuloumne 5,883 11,891 33%-67%

Ventura 96,762 124,914 44%-56%

Yolo 28,380 23,460 55%-45%

Yuba 4,173 9,737 30%-70%

Total 4,397,078 4,396,901 50%-50%