Who won Nevada's Hispanic Vote?

After the Nevada caucus, Bernie and Hillary supporters are up in arms debating it. There is the debate over whether people were yelling  "English only" at Dolores Huerta. There is the debate over who has the most momentum but most importantly there is the debate over who won the Hispanic vote. The Sanders camp has long contended that they can win over voters of color and that Sanders is not simply a "candidate for white voters." 

The debate starts here: roughly 70% of Nevadans live in Clark County, the most urban and Democratic part of the state (Obama won 58% there in 2008 and 56% in 2012) and Clark County has the bulk of Nevada's Hispanics (30% of Clark County is Hispanic, 45% of Clark County is non Hispanic White). The other 30% of Nevada includes Washoe County with Reno and the rural counties are nicknamed the "Cow Counties." The U.S. Census quick facts website shows that the Hispanic population percentage is lower in these counties than Clark County. Sanders narrowly carried Washoe County and the "Cow Counties." Clinton however won Clark County by 10 points which was the entire winning margin for Nevada by 5-6 points. This would suggest that Clinton won the Hispanic vote but some Sanders supporters are saying that the entrance polls show Sanders leading with Hispanics which means he won Hispanics. Heavily Hispanic precincts voted for Clinton but Sanders supporters say Sanders won Hispanics in precincts with lower Hispanic populations. 

This article's goal is to not to prove that Hillary Clinton won Nevada's Hispanic voters but to show why exit/entrance poll crosstabs should not always be trusted, especially when judging the Hispanic vote.

We will examine this by looking at a few areas:
1. Clark County Voter Math
2. Why Exit Polls are not always reliable
3. Precincts with Medium Hispanic Populations

1. Clark County Voter Math

This point has been repeated thoroughly but in 22 heavily Hispanic majority  precincts, Hillary Clinton won the majority of the delegates. The Hillary campaign used these numbers to estimate that they won 61% of the Hispanic votes. She also overwhelmingly won the casino caucus sites which have high Hispanic populations. She did not win by narrow margins either, one precinct I had a friend awarded 28 delegates to Hillary and 12 to Sanders. This map below shows East Las Vegas which is heavily Hispanic.


Map of Las Vegas the red indicates white and green indicates Hispanic. As shown the large bulk of the Hispanic population is in East Las Vegas.

Map of East Las Vegas heavily Hispanic precincts and their primary results (map is from New York Times' writer Nate Cohn's Twitter)

African Americans were probably 14% of Clark County votes due to being 12% in the exit polls and the fact that outside of Clark County the African American population was low in Nevada. If the African Americans voted 76%-22% for Clinton (as shown by the exit polls) this means that Hillary Clinton won other voters by about three points. With heavily Hispanic East Las Vegas precincts voting for Clinton, it is safe to assume that the pockets of Sanders support came from areas with a higher White population.  

2. Why exit polls are not always reliable

Exit polls  have made mistakes with Hispanic votes previously. In 2004, they said Bush won 49% of Hispanic vote in Texas in 2004 and 56% in Florida in 2004. Results from heavily Cuban congressional districts and heavily Hispanic Osceola County seemed to confirm a result close to that, at least within a few points. When looking at Texas however, the heavily Hispanic counties suggest that Texas Hispanics voted more than 50% for Kerry.

(map courtesy of the New York Times of the Rio Grande Valley with the Democratic counties in 2004).

Take Webb County as an example in the Rio Grande Valley. The population of Webb County is 94% Hispanic which means it can show us how Texas Hispanics voted without other demographics changing the county results. Webb is also the most populated heavily Hispanic County in Texas above 90% Hispanic. Webb County voted 57% for Kerry. Other Rio Grande counties which were heavily Hispanic also backed Kerry, mostly by similar margins. One argument was that Bush performed better among Hispanics not in the Rio Grande Valley. The heavily Hispanic congressional districts outside of the Rio Grande Valley in San Antonio of TX-20 and TX-29 voted 55% and 56% respectively for Kerry according to the Almanac of American Politics 2006. Those numbers are lower than normal but still show that Hispanics voted more Democratic than 50%. 

3. Using precincts with medium Hispanic populations

I have heard the argument that Sanders performed better with Hispanics in precincts with 20%-40% Hispanics because he won some in Clark County. He also won a few in Washoe County as well which does not have as large or as dense Hispanic population. This brings me to California's 21st Congressional District located in Bakersfield and some rural agricultural communities in the southern Central Valley. The district voted 52%-45% for Obama in 2008 even though it was 70% Hispanic. This created the misconception that Hispanics in the Central Valley were more conservative. In 2013 and 2014, Democrats lost SD-16, a State Senate seat there and Republican touted this by saying that Hispanics could vote Republican. At a closer examination, the data showed that Hispanics mainly voted Democratic. I examined precincts such as Lost Hills, CA which were 96% Hispanic and showed that Hispanics voted heavily Democratic. At the same time, many precincts that were 90%+ White voted 80% for McCain.

Another example is Tulare County. It is 63% Hispanic but voted 41% for President Obama. It was not  however because Hispanics voted Republican but because Hispanic turnout was low in Tulare County. A few 90%+ Hispanic precincts were examined and while they backed Obama heavily (precincts in the southwest corner and in Orisi had 70%-80% margins for Obama), they had much lower turnout than surrounding whiter and conservative precincts. This shows that Hispanics in the Central Valley were not necessarily more conservative than Hispanics in Los Angeles. It shows that Hispanic turnout was low and the turnout from White voters was higher and most likely outnumbered Hispanics despite the higher Hispanic population. Reasons for the lower Hispanic turnout include that Hispanics are generally younger which means many are under 18 and many are not citizens and cannot vote. This is why it is important to use precincts to analyze Hispanics that are nearly 100% Hispanic because Hispanic turnout rates are generally lower than that of other demographic groups.

Precinct map of Tulare County's population (red is primarily white, green is primarily Hispanic, a district with both is a mix)

Map of Tulare County's votes in 2008: (courtesy of Dave's Redistricting App)

Some analyses have pointed to precincts with sizable but not majority Hispanic populations to show areas where Bernie performed well. However it is unclear whether that Bernie  support came from white voters or if it came from Hispanics. By looking at Tulare County though as an example, it appears that the White voters are overrepresented.

This explains my problem with justifying the Sanders win by looking at districts with medium sized Hispanic populations. As shown by Tulare County, Hispanics can be  underrepresented in precincts with lower Hispanic populations. That is why I want to only look at East Las Vegas precincts because the precincts have such a high Hispanic population so other demographic groups cannot dilute their votes. 

Conclusion: 

Overall, is Hillary or Bernie more popular with Hispanics? That question will only be fully answered when we see Texas vote on March 1st and see their exit polls. We can also examine the exit polls and see how closely they match Webb County and other heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley. So far, a YouGov poll shows Hillary with a 23 point lead among Texan Hispanics but as stated earlier, crosstabs are not always completely accurate. 

My educated guess though is that Hillary probably won Hispanics (although we do not know the margin) because poll crosstabs are known to be extremely inaccurate but actual precinct results from heavily Hispanic precincts which are not diluted are not. I will not however be 100% in any camp until Texas votes. 

Nevada Bipartisan Redistricting

Nevada is gaining a new congressional district and representatives Dean Heller (R) and Shelley Berkley (D) may run for Senate. Therefore, three out of Nevada's four districts will be open seats. The only seat with an incumbent running is the 3rd district with Joe Heck (R) who was elected in 2010 by one point. The power will shift to the Las Vegas area too because 72% of Nevada's population lives in Clark County, up from 68% in 2000. The legislature does not have to consider incumbency while redistricting but the map should have strong Democratic and Republican districts. The reason is that there is split control with Democrats controlling the legislature and Brian Sandoval (R) controlling the Governorship. The new map should be designed for a 2-2 delegation. Republicans may not be inclined to give the Democrats a seat but Heck won by only one point last year so the Republicans should exchange a safe district for Heck with a new Democratic district. Nevada is trending Democratic though so one or both of the 2 Republican districts may flip at the end of the decade but I doubt Sandoval would sign a bill with a 3-1 Democratic delegation. The Democrats may not attempt a 3-1 map either because it may endanger their incumbents. Anyway, here are the maps:

Las Vegas area

Here is a link to maps of Nevada's current congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_nv.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

A few notes: Dave's Redistricting App does not have partisan data so the partisan data for the 1st, 3rd and 4th districts are predicted. The 2nd district has partisan data because I did not split any counties while drawing it and used county by county percentages to calculate the votes there. Also, the demographic figures reflect the results of the 2010 census.


Nevada's 1st Congressional District Shelley Berkeley (D) Blue
President 2008 (predicted): Obama 61%
Demographics: 12.7% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 9.1% African American, 47.3% White
Demographics 18+: 13.2% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 8.8% African American, 51.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This district contains the western part of the Las Vegas area, picking up Spring Valley, Paradise and Democratic parts of western Las Vegas. This is Shelley Berkeley’s (D) district but if she runs for Senate, there will be a primary battle for the 1^st district. Dina Titus (D) lost the current 3rd district to Joe Heck (R) last year by 1 point despite the final polls showing Heck with high single digit leads. She may run in this district which is too Democratic for a Republican representative. The primary will be the important race here. Titus’s advantages include serving as Nevada's Senate Minority Leader from 1993 to 2009. She also represented the swing 3rd district from 2009 to 2011. Barbara Buckley (D) may run because her Spring Valley base is completely within in the 1st district. She has served in the State Assembly since 1994. She was also the former Speaker of the Assembly but may be too liberal for some voters. She planned to run for Governor in 2010 but Rory Reid (D) ran instead. He may run here too in hopes of a comeback. His advantages include being the former head of the Clark County Commission and being Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D) son.

Statewide map
Nevada's 2nd Congressional District Dean Heller (R) Green
President 2008: Obama 143,152 51%, McCain 139,941 49%
Senate 2010: Reid 102,040 47%, Angle 115,518 53%
Demographics: 20.4% Hispanic, 69.3% White
Demographics 18+: 16.5% Hispanic, 73.7% White
Status: Likely Republican

Although Obama won this district, I expect a Republican to win here because the district normally votes Republican. The 2nd district became a couple of points more Democratic by losing the heavily Republican and rural counties in south Nevada. Washoe County which voted for Obama and Reid gained more influence. Washoe County is not a Democrat county though because it votes close to the statewide average for both candidates. As for the district's representative, Dean Heller (R) is running for Senate so he will vacate the district. Obama will increase turnout in 2012 because he will target Nevada. Also, Reno is next to California and in 2008, many Californians raced into Reno to help Obama. I assume the volunteers will race into Reno again in 2012. I still believe that this district is too Republican to elect a Democrat now because of the conservative Cow Counties but if Nevada's Democratic trend continues, Democrats will be competitive later in the decade. As for the 2012 congressional race, State GOP Party Chair Mark Amodei (R) has announced his candidacy. On the Democratic side, State Senator Sheila Leslie (D) from Reno may examine the race. Also, Reno City Council member Jessica Sferraza (D) may consider running. She is young but has served in Reno's city council for ten years. She also has the Reno base and helped revitalize parts of Reno including Wells Ave.

Nevada's 3rd Congressional District OPEN Purple
President 2008 (predicted): Obama 70%
Demographics: 6.3% Asian, 44.7% Hispanic, 14.4% African American, 31.1% White
Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 39.1% Hispanic, 14.4% African American, 36.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This is the new minority majority district in Nevada. It contains North Las Vegas, Sunrise Manor, eastern Las Vegas and some Democratic parts of Republican leaning Henderson. This district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative but a competitive Democratic primary is possible. John Oceguera (D), the Speaker of the State Assembly may run here because his eastern Las Vegas base is in the 3rd district and he will do well with the district's large Hispanic population in the primary. Oceguera has served since 2000 and his work as Speaker makes him well known with voters in his district and nearby areas. He is a young face too at 43 years old. Oceguera may face competition from Steven Horsford (D) the Nevada Senate Majority Leader. Horsford's Senate district is completely in the new 3rd congressional district and represents part of North Las Vegas. Like Oceguera, Horsford is a young rising star elected in 2004 and Horsford's work as Senate Majority Leader has made voters familiar with him. In a primary, Horsford will probably win the endorsement of the powerful culinary union with 60,000 members because he is the CEO of the Culinary Training Academy and helped construct kitchen training facilities on the Nevada Partners Campus. Horsford is African American and the 3rd district's 14.4% African American population is the largest of Nevada's districts. With Oceguera though, 39% of the voting age population is Hispanic and although Hispanics usually have lower turnout rates than African Americans, the Hispanic population is probably high enough for more Hispanics than African Americans vote in the Democratic primary. Overall, Oceguera has advantages because he served longer than Horsford did, Oceguera is the Speaker of the State Assembly and Oceguera is Hispanic. Horsford's advantages though are that he should gain the culinary union's backing, his Senate district contains more of the 3rd district than Oceguera's and Horsford is the Senate Majority Leader.

Nevada's 4th Congressional District Joe Heck (R) red
President 2008 (predicted): McCain 52%
Demographics: 7.5% Asian, 14.2% Hispanic, 5.6% African American, 68.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 5.5% African American, 71.9% White
Status: Likely Republican

Brian Sandoval (R) will not sign a bill that weakens Joe Heck (R) who barely won against Dina Titus (D) in the current 3rd district so I strengthened Heck. I removed Democratic leaning Spring Valley, East Las Vegas and Democratic leaning parts of Henderson. I added Republican parts of North Las Vegas and some extremely red rural counties such as Lincoln, Nye and White Pine counties. Heck's Clark County base is large enough to avoid a primary challenge from the rural areas though. The district's Republican lean may change as Democrats from Las Vegas move out into the suburbs. In 2012 though, Heck should have no difficulties winning reelection.

How Harry Reid Won

 Yes, I have seen many articles describing how Harry Reid won because his ground game and campaign were superior to Sharron Angle's (R) but I will actually look at the map here and see exactly what demographics carried Reid to victory. First, I will start at the beginning: the economic downturn affected people across the United States and Nevada was no exception. Unemployment here was at 14% so many Nevadans blamed the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid for the high unemployment rate. Reid appeared to be in danger and polls showed him losing to Sue Lowden (R) who was the frontrunner in the Republican primaries. Then after saying people should trade healthcare for chickens, she lost and Sharron Angle (R) won the primary. Immediately, Harry Reid introduced Angle's extreme beliefs to the public such as how she wants Social Security Eliminated, she suggested people should use "2nd Amendment remedies" against the Government while saying rape victims should not be allowed to choose whether to have an abortion. Angle tried to keep herself quiet by staying away from reporters not from Fox News. Angle's campaign had a poor ground game compared to Reid's which was extremely organized. Due to all these factors, Reid beat the Republican wind and won by 41,000 votes. Here is a map of the 2010 election results:

Here is a map of the 2008 election results

Here is a map representing the shift from 2008 to 2010:

light blue is Democratic 0%-5%
light red is Republican 0%-5%
Red is Republican 6%-10%
Dark Red is Republican 11%+

 Nevada is an interesting state in terms of the bases. The Democratic base is Clark County which contains Las Vegas. Clark County usually does not vote overwhelmingly Democratic but since it has so many people, Democrats can win Nevada by winning Clark County with a 10% or higher margin. The Republican base is the cow counties which are the rural counties outside of Clark. These counties generally have small populations but cast large Republican margins to offset Clark County. The big bellwether in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno.) It usually votes with the statewide average and represents the state as a whole. It has an urban area with casinos that leans Democratic and some conservative rural areas. While looking at the 2008 and 2010 map, it appears that Reid performed better than Obama because there is more blue on that map. When looking at the map showing the shifts though, it reveals that Obama performed better because the shifts toward Reid where in counties with smaller populations.

As the map shows, Obama performed much better than Reid but the shift toward Angle was not uniform across the state. The shift toward Angle was most apparent in the Reno area in counties such as Douglas County.  McCain won it 56%-41% but it shifted ten points toward Angle who won it by 59%-34%. The reason for the shift here is that Angle is from the Reno area so her presence here probably gave her a few points. It was not enough to give her Washoe County (Reno) which she lost by 5 points. In Clark County, the shift was -6 for the Democrats, one point below the -7 shift statewide. It is not surprising the Republican shift in Clark County was not as strong as the rest of the state because as many news articles have mentioned, Reid turned out the Democratic base in order to win.

Surprisingly, some of the conservative "Cow Counties" which vote more Republican than the rest of the state shifted toward Reid. An example is Humboldt County on the Oregon border near Elko County. It voted 63%-33% for McCain, giving him a 30 point win. Angle though won it 57%-32% by 25 points, 5 points less than McCain while she overperfomed him by 7 points statewide. Humboldt County does not have a strong Democratic base so that would not explain the shift toward Reid. One possible explanation is that a Harry Reid endorsement by Elko County's main newspaper caused a few voters to shift to Reid and since the newspaper had a strong presence in the area. Although the endorsement probably did not influence many voters, it seemed to influence enough voters to cause Reid to perform better than Obama did. This example suggests that Reid won by not only turning out the base voters but swaying independents as well due to the inroads he made in a few conservative counties.

Overall, the real reason for Reid winning was not that he turned out the base voters but he succeeded in winning over independents too. His campaign was so strong that he even overperformed in areas with conservative leaning independents when one may expect Angle to dominate among those voters due to the independents countrywide swinging to the Republicans. Angle had enough presence in her home area to overperform there but Reid's overperformance in the northern part of the state demonstrates how Reid's support among the large groups in Nevada was so strong that it helped him even there.

Nevada Senate County Baselines

Dark Red: Republican 70%+

Red: Republican 60%-69%

Light Red: Republican 50%-59%

Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

This map above is the visual for the Nevada Senate county baselines. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (who Keith Olbermann calls the chicken lady,) a State Senator from Republican areas in Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. No recent poll has shown her lead (or hopefully deficit) compared to Reid. Also, Lowden benefits from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid's past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may not keep down Republican margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates' percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid's 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Link for 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City 45% 54% 1%

Churchill 29% 70% 1%

Clark 54% 45% 1%
Douglas 35% 64% 1%

Elko 27% 72% 1%

Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%

Eureka 21% 78% 1%

Humboldt 34% 65% 1%

Lander 29% 70% 1%

Lincoln 24% 75% 1%

Lyon 35% 64% 1%

Mineral 52% 47% 1%

Nye 41% 58% 1%

Pershing 37% 62% 1%

Storey 42% 57% 1%

Washoe 49% 50% 1%

White Pine 38% 61% 1%

Nevada Redistricting Maps

Central Nevada

Las Vegas area

North Nevada

Southern Nevada

These are the maps for Nevada redistricting done with Dave's Redistricting App. You can view the write up for the maps on swing state project.

(Click them if you want a larger picture)

Feel free to comment on them.

The Battle for the West

Obama instead of focusing almost completely on Pennorida (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) is now setting his sites on Nevexicado( Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado.) I think it is a good strategy. Al Gore focused only on Florida but lost because he tried to put all his eggs in one basket. Kerry tried to put his eggs in two baskets by focusing only on Florida and Ohio. Two was still not enough for him but Obama now is trying to put his eggs in more baskets. One is Iowa and Virginia, the other is Nevexicado. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado add up to 19 electoral votes. If Obama can hold onto all the Kerry states and completely win Nevexicado, he will be the president. Kerry did not try hard enough in those states and if he tried to put his eggs in that basket as well as Ohio and Florida, he would have won. Enough chitter chatter about eggs and baskets, let's start analyzing things and we can see how Obama can pull off a win in all three states.

New Mexico, this state should be the easiest for Obama to win out of these three. Bush won there by only 5,988 votes and the reason he won was that there was alot of turnout in heavily Republican Little Texas. Although Palin is able to excite the religious conservatives, she probably cannot do it at the level that Bush did. Also, Bush managed to receive 44% of the Hispanic vote. Obama can definitely do better than Kerry did among Hispanics. Also, he will do well in Liberal Santa Fe and can probably win Bernallio County by a larger margin than Kerry. Yes, Arizona is a neighbor of New Mexico but that will probably not be enough for McCain to win. Already, we have listed New Mexico as Lean Democratic on our most recent state rankings.

Nevada is another state Obama will have to win. It is a very unique state. The unions and the corporations are friends and the economy is mostly focused on the gambling industry. Kerry lost the state by 22,000 votes and the reason is that he did not do well enough with Hispanics and Bush did very well in the counties outside of Clark County (the Cow Counties) where Las Vegas is located. McCain cannot probably match the levels of turnout in the Cow Counties so he will need to do well with white voters in Clark County. Obama will need to do alot better with Hispanics there and can increase African American turnout. Palin will help McCain in the Cow Counties but it may not be enough. The Cow Counties have high turnout while Clark County has lower turnout. On election night, watch Washoe County where Reno is located. If Obama can win that county, he has won Nevada.

Colorado is the biggest of the three. It is also the state with the biggest Democratic trend. The Liberal populations of Denver and Boulder along with the growing number of Hispanics are a big help in making the state trend Democratic. There was very high turnout in those areas in 2004 so Democrats may have a hard time finding new voters there. They need to win by doing well with Independents and also need to do well on the Western Slope. If Obama wins Larmier, Jefferson and Araphone Counties, he will probably have won the state. The rural counties in the east won't turnout as strongly this year as 2004 but there is Colorado Springs. There is a large military population there and McCain will do well with it. This state we believe will be very close in the general election and it may come down to it.

Now here are the places to watch on election night. In New Mexico, is McCain doing well in Little Texas? Is Obama doing well in the Santa Fe and Albequerque areas? Is he doing well around Las Cruces? In Nevada, is Obama leading by about seven to nine points in Clark County? Is Washoe County really close? Is McCain doing well in the Cow Counties? In Colorado, is Obama winning the counties that we mentioned earlier, is he doing well on the Western Slope? How high is the turnout in Denver and Boulder? Is the turnout in Colorado Springs high? If you want to see who will win these states on election night before all the votes are in? These are the areas to watch. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting and voting on our poll.