Key Counties to Watch on the March 15th Primaries

The  Super Tuesday 2.0 is here and there are 691 delegates at stake. As  my friend calls it, “Significant Tuesday.” This is a chance for Hillary to secure her 200+ pledged delegate lead or for Sanders to prolong the race. Pundits expect Clinton to win Florida and North Carolina easily while Ohio, Illinois and Missouri should be close (although a few pundits say Sanders will win Missouri). Here are the key counties and regions to watch while the results unfold (on the Democratic side only).

Florida:

Florida is expected to go strongly for Hillary Clinton. The RCP polling average shows Hillary with a  29 point lead. The three main regions are: Gold Coast, I-4 Corridor and outstate Florida.  Hillary should perform well in outstate, mainly because of the high African American population in northern Florida, the elderly voters in the Villages and the wealthy voters on the southwest coast of Florida. She is also expected to do well in  the Gold Coast (Miami) with the high Hispanic, African American and elderly populations. Counties Sanders can try to score an upset:

Alachua County: the University of Florida is here but a  high African American population is here as well. This county will be close.

Counties north of Tampa: counties such as Pasco, Hernando and Citrus are heavily white and not as wealthy as the southwest coast of Florida. These have similar demographics to counties Bernie won in Michigan (and Midwestern transplants). At the same time, the percentage of elderly voters here is almost the highest in the nation so it is likely Bernie cannot even win here.

North Carolina:

This is another state where Hillary is expected to perform well, this time with a 24 point lead in the RCP average. Hillary should perform well in the eastern part of the state due to the high African American population. She should do well in the urban areas of  Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte as well. If Bernie wins a few counties, he needs to perform well in:

Western North Carolina: this is Appalachia with a low African American population but as shown in Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia, Hillary wins southern rural white voters.

Durham and Orange Counties: Duke and UNC are here but so are high African American populations.

Charlotte suburbs: Gaston and Union Counties  voted for Hillary by narrow margins in 08. These are heavily white and upscale suburban counties. If Bernie wants to make inroads among the upscale voters he needs to win these.

Ohio:

Here we go to our first  swing state of the evening. The RCP average has Hillary with an 8 point lead but after Michigan, it is highly unlikely that the Clinton folks are taking any chances. Ohio though will probably not be a Michigan repeat because Independents are represented in these polls. Also, Michigan has only one large urban area, Ohio however has:

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): this county is the center of Ohio’s Democratic base. Obama won here by 260,000 votes in 2008, Kerry won here by 227,000  votes in 2004. It is about 30% African American. Hillary will need those votes and if she wins Cuyahoga County with a margin of 57% or higher, she will probably win statewide. Obama won 54% here with his 8 point loss in 2008.

Franklin County: (Columbus) Franklin County used to be a swing county (Gore won by a few point) but as shown in 2012 (Obama won it by 20) it has become strongly Democratic. It is the 2nd most populous county in Ohio (after Cuyahoga). Obama won 56% here but expect Hillary to do worse because while there is a large African American population (20% of the county), there is a large population of college students as well. There are upscale Democrats  too so Hillary should win (although narrowly). If she loses, expect a good night for Bernie.

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Hamilton is the 3rd most populated county in Ohio and it was also Obama’s best. With a low number of white Democrats and a 23% African American population, Hillary  should aim to at least match Obama’s percentages in the low 60s.

Lucas County (Toledo): Toledo is a smaller city (Lucas County has roughly 480k people) and Obama lost it by 5 points in 2008 but Hillary should win here. The reason is that she lost Monroe County, Michigan (which borders Toledo) by only one point and Monroe County has a lower African American population than Lucas County does. It depends how big the Hillary win is here though.

Summit County (Akron): this is a county to watch. It has a 13% African American population and a large number of working class union voters who may lean Sanders. Hillary can probably win Ohio without Summit county but if she wins it, Bernie cannot win.

Sanders should do well in the rural part of the state, but Hillary can make a play for:

Southeast Ohio: this is a heavily white and rural area. Hillary though showed that she can win Appalachian voters on March 1st so if she can win northern Appalachian voters and score some surprise wins in rural areas, this is the area to watch. It  voted heavily for her in 08.

Illinois:

This is another close state. Despite a high African American population (15%), a large number of upscale voters and high Obama popularity, Illinois could be a tough state for Hillary. The RCP average has her winning by 2.3 points and the trusty PPP poll has her leading by 3. Here are the key counties to watch:

Cook County (Chicago): nearly half of the state’s Democratic votes live here. Hillary wants a large margin from the south side with its high African American population. She also wants to do well in northern Cook County with upscale Democrats near Evanston similar to the upscale Dems in Massachusetts that helped her win there. Sanders though is making a play for Hispanics, young African Americans and working class voters. He also is tying Hillary to the unpopular mayor Rahm Emanuel.  If Hillary wins Cook County by 5 points or less, she should be worried.

Lake County: is Hillary winning upscale voters? Look no further than Lake County which is north of Cook County, is upscale and suburban. I was phone banking for Hillary here and found mostly Hillary supporters but I do not know how they targeted the voters. Hillary will also look to do well in other upscale areas such as McHenry and DuPage. If she loses Lake County though and gets a five point or lower win in Cook, she will lose Illinois.

Downstate: this is rural Illinois and Sanders needs large margins in the rural areas to win. Hillary though could try to score some upsets in:

-St. Clair/Madison Counties: these are St. Louis suburbs with some heavily African American areas.

-Sangamon County: this is Springfield which also has some heavily African American neighborhoods.

-Pulaski County: this county is 30% African American and at the southern tip of Illinois. This was the only part of Illinois Hillary won in 08 so watch her try to repeat her win there.

Missouri:

This is the state Sanders has the best chance to win. With the state being only 11% African American and having a large white working class population, this is tough terrain for Hillary. PP has  Sanders winning by one point. Nate Silver says Hillary has a 54% chance of winning here.

St. Louis City: African Americans are about half the population here but there are many younger white Democrats as well. Hillary should win here but if her  margin is under 60% she should be concerned.

St. Louis County: with upscale voters, a 20% African American population and Ferguson, Hillary should win here. She also needs to keep her percentage above 60%. Obama won 63% here in his narrow Missouri win.

Jackson County (Kansas City): although there is an African American population in the 20s here, it is more working class and borders Kansas where Bernie performed well. If Hillary loses this county, she is in trouble.

Rural Missouri: although Hillary won rural Iowa on the Missouri border, that may have been more due to her ground game. Sanders should perform well in this part of the state. Hillary though can score some wins in rural counties in southeastern Missouri which border her husband’s home state Arkansas and a few counties in southeast Missouri such as New Madrid have  significant African American populations as well.

Changing Senate Races After Labor Day

 In many states across the country, Democrats are looking at losing Senate seats. Fortunately, most pundits including myself believe that the Republicans will not pick up enough seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Still, many people believe the Republicans will pick up about 6-7 seats and the trend is more for the Republicans. Some races though are not as solidly Republican as you may think though. It may be because the Democrat is not well known to voters or has not spent enough time to define him/herself and the opponent. Since Labor Day is not here yet, the real campaign season is not here either (unless your name is Meg Whitman and you are spending money nonstop.) That is a good example (and probably the most famous) one of the races where the Democrat has not kicked the campaign into high gear. Not all races where one candidate will start doing better after Labor Day are races where Democrats will improve. For example, Ohio has a tied race with Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D). Portman has raised a large amount of money and when he starts spending it, he should open a lead. Now here is a list of the races which should change after Labor Day:

Delaware: Michael Castle (R) vs. Chris Coons (D)
Chris Coons is the County Supervisor for New Castle County (Wilmington) which is known as the state's  bellwether. Castle is the At-Large Representative for Delaware, he is a moderate and he has represented it for awhile. Also, his moderate views make him appealing to independents. Most polling also shows Castle with about a 10 point lead. Although Coons at first appears to be in trouble, he has a good shot at making this close. Coons needs to introduce himself to voters and the Democratic lean of Delaware should help him close in on castle. Still, this race looks like Castle's to lose.

Indiana: Dan Coats (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Coats is a former Indiana Senator and a former lobbyist. Ellsworth has been a U.S House member in southwestern Indiana for four years. Coats is definitely more of the incumbent but this race will tell us whether it is really an anti incumbent year or just an anti Democratic year. Most polls show Coats with a solid lead over Ellsworth. Do not expect the lead to be so large soon. Ellsworth won by 24 points in 2006, knocking out Republican John Hosteletter (R) and he is extremely popular in that district. Once Ellsworth starts introducing himself to rural voters outside of his district, he should get closer to Coats because Ellsworth pro gun stances and other views popular in rural areas should help him. Coats voted for the Brady Bill so it is even possible Ellsworth will get the NRA endorsement. Although I expect a Coats win by 5 points, Coats's big lead in the polls now is due to Ellsworth not being well known.

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Carnahan is the Secretary of State and she won by 26 points in 2008 and won the important rural areas of Missouri. For a Democrat to win an election here, he/she must keep Republican margins in rural areas down enough so they do not offset Democratic votes in St. Louis/Kansas City areas. Also, Carnahan's opponent is Roy Blunt who is from conservative southwest Missouri where Democrats never make big inroads (so no hometown advantage for him.) Blunt also is the former Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. You would think Carnahan would have this race in the bag but most polls show Blunt leading Carnahan by a few points. The likely explanation is that since Obama is unpopular in Missouri (he did not even win here in 2008,) the unpopularity is spilling over to Carnahan. Still, she has a better shot once she starts defining Roy Blunt and reminding 61% of Missouri voters why they supported her. This race should get closer but I expect a Blunt win.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
So far, races that I am saying will change are races which should shift toward the Democratic candiate. This race though should shift towards the Republicans. Portman (R) is the former U.S Trade Representative under the Bush Administration and Bush is still unpopular in Ohio. Lee Fisher (D), the Lieutenant Governor is a solid candidate from Northeast Ohio where Democrats need big turnout to win. Most polls show a close race but after Labor Day, Portman should get a bigger lead. His advantage is that he has much more money than Fisher so he will be able to blanket the state with ads while Fisher will not. Although Fisher has the backing of the state's strong unions, it will probably not be enough for him to win.

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D)
If one race will see a big shift in polls after Labor Day, it will be this one. Joe Sestak surprised everyone by beating Arlen Specter (D) by 8 points, thanks to an ad blitz at the end with Sestak defining himself as a populist which played really well in West Pennsylvania. Also, there was a clear contrast when Specter gave a not so exciting concession speech while Sestak was very energetic. Now Sestak needs to use his energy against Toomey, a former big Club For Growth conservative. In 2004, Toomey ran as the conservative when he primaried Specter but Toomey is now running to the center. Although most polls show Sestak behind, Sestak has not kicked in his campaign yet. If there is one race that will see a big shift, it will be this one. Sestak will probably wait until the last minute to do an ad blitz but as we saw with Martha Coakley (D) in Massachusetts, waiting until the last minute is not a good idea. Still, it worked for Sestak in the primary so it might work again. This race will end up being really close.