Electoral Vote Ratings: One More Week

My previous electoral vote ratings: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/electoral-vote-rankings-obama.html

These are my 2nd to last Electoral rankings. My last will be right before election day. 
http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/electoral-vote-rankings-2012.html  has more detailed writeups on Safe and Likely states. 

Also, I have eliminated the tossup category because I believe at this stage, states are either trending one way or the other.

Dark Blue = Safe Democratic
Blue = Likely Democratic
Lean = Light Blue
Tilt Democratic = very light blue
Tilt Republican = Light red
Lean Republican = Orange
Likely Republican = Red
Safe Republican = Very Red

Changes favoring Democrats
Colorado-Tossup-Tilt D 
Connecticut Likely D-Safe D

Changes favoring Republicans
Florida-Tossup-Tilt R
New Hampshire Lean D-Tilt D



Safe Democratic (179 electoral votes)
CA, CT DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA, NE, ND, OK,

Likely Democratic (22 electoral votes)
 MN, NM, OR

Lean Democratic (52 electoral votes)
MI, NV, PA, WI

Tilt Democratic (52 electoral votes)
CO, IA, OH, VA

Tilt Republican (44 electoral votes)
NC, FL

Lean Republican (11 electoral votes)
AZ, 

Likely Republican (37 electoral votes)
GA, IN, MO, MT, NE-02

Safe Republican (129 electoral votes)
AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

My projections for the lean and tilt states:
Lean D
MI O 53-46
NV O 53-46
PA O 52-46
WI O 51-47
Tilt D
CO O 50-48
IA O 51-48
NH O 51-48
OH O 51-48
VA O 50-49
Tilt R
FL O 49-50
NC O 48-50
Lean R
AZ O 45-53

More detailed writeups on the safe and likely states: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/electoral-vote-rankings-2012.html

Lean Democratic (56 electoral votes)

Michigan (16 electoral votes) On paper, Romney seems to have a real shot in Michigan. His family hails from Michigan and in 2010, Michigan took a sharp turn to the right as the Republicans won the Governorship, the State Senate and two U.S House seats. Obama is doing well here because he revived the auto industry after it seemed to be dead and Romney appeared out of touch with Michigan because he wrote an article titled, "Let Detroit go bankrupt." He also is famous for saying, "The trees are just the right height," when referring to how he remembered Michigan from his boyhood days. For Obama to win in Michigan, he needs a large African American turnout in Detroit and needs to perform well in the Detroit suburbs, especially Oakland and Macomb Counties. Romney needs a strong turnout in the western part of the state where the auto industry is less prevalent but the tea party is prevalent. Most recent polls show Obama leading in the high single digits but a shocker poll released recently shows Obama and Romney tied in Michigan. It is just one poll however so I do not trust it. If other polls however show a similar result, then I will be worried. 

Nevada (6 electoral votes) Most polls show Obama with a small lead here. Nevada also has a history of having polls underestimate Democratic strength because of the Democrats' strong ground game and the large number of cellphone only voters. Also, many Hispanics who speak Spanish only are harder to poll and they vote strongly Democratic. For Democrats to win in Nevada, they have to win 55%+ in Clark County (Las Vegas) which has a large fast growing Hispanic population. They also must win Washoe County which is a bellwether. Romney's numbers with Hispanics are extremely low but he may make up some ground with the large Mormon population in the rural areas (known as the Cow Counties.) It will be hard for Romney to compete with the Democrats' organization and the changing demographics though. Also, the early voting numbers are strong for the Democrats being 47% Democratic and 37% Republican with 20% of Nevadans having early voted by 10/26/12. The Democrats' advantage in Clark County is showing itself too with the EV being 50% D and 31% R. Also, no poll in the last year has shown Romney ahead in NV, I am not worried about this state as long as the volunteers keep working. Even one of Gov. Brian Sandoval's (R) staff members says he thinks Obama will win Nevada. If I were Romney, I would pull out of here. His ground game cannot compete with the Democrats' ground game here. 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) Earlier this year, Romney hoped to make Pennsylvania competitive by winning over disgruntled working class voters in western Pennsylvania. With the revival of the auto industry though, it seems that Obama will hold enough western Pennsylvania voters to win statewide. For Obama to win, he needs to do very well in the Philadelphia area, win its suburbs and win enough western Pennsylvania voters. Republicans generally win elections in Pennsylvania by doing well in the center of the state and winning the swing area which is the cities between Philadelphia and the Appalachian mountains. Those areas include Harrisburg, Reading and Allentown/Bethlehem. Obama in 2008 won those areas and those cities usually vote a few points more Republican than the rest of the state so if Obama wins them, he wins statewide. Recently though, the Democrats put an ad buy in the Pittsburgh area but that may be for Sen. Bob Casey (D) who is facing an unexpectedly tough race. 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Wisconsin has had a Republican surge recently with the election of Scott Walker (R) as Governor and the failed recall. The Republican trend may be explained by Democrats moving out of Wisconsin and other Midwestern/Northern States. Romney's pick of Rep. Paul Ryan (R) also put Wisconsin in play because Ryan is from Wisconsin. For Democrats to win in Wisconsin, they not only need to increase turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, they have to win the rural counties in the western part of the state. They learned this in the Walker recall when Walker performed poorly in Madison and Milwaukee but won because he overperformed in the rural parts of the state. Romney's Ryan pick seems to have helped Romney in Wisconsin. Obama has had small leads although not a single poll this month has shown Romney leading Obama in Wisconsin. Therefore, I am keeping Wisconsin at Lean Democratic. 

Tilt Democratic (37 electoral votes)


Colorado (9 electoral votes) Obama won here by nine points, more than his countrywide average and the demographics here favor Democrats so if Obama wins the Presidency, he's probably winning Colorado too. Colorado is divided between the liberal areas of Denver, Boulder and the Rocky Mountain ski areas and the conservative areas of Colorado Springs, west Colorado and the Plains. The important swing areas though are the suburban counties of Jefferson and Arahaphoe. Those areas are socially liberal but not fiscally liberal. 2010 Senatorial candidate Michael Bennett (D) won statewide by winning over socially liberal suburban women so Obama needs to do the same in order to win Colorado. Also, Obama needs to excite the youth vote in Boulder because they were an important part of his winning coalition. Polls have been showing a near tie in Colorado but this may actually be an advantage for the Democrats. The reason is that Colorado has many Democratic leaning young and Hispanic voters who are harder to poll because many of them do not use landlines or respond to polls (in the case of Hispanics, some polls do not have Spanish options so Hispanics who do not speak English well may not respond.) This underpolling showed up in the 2008 Presidential race where the RCP average showed Obama ahead by 5, he won by 9 and in the 2010 Senatorial race, the RCP average showed Ken Buck (R) +1, he lost by 2 points. Still, this state is very close and the Democrats should take absolutely nothing for granted. 

Iowa (6 electoral votes) Iowa seems Republican at first. It is mostly rural and mostly white like the heavily Republican states of Kansas and Nebraska. The large number of universities, family farms and farms producing ethanol balance out the conservative evangelicals in the western part of the state. Obama won statewide by 9 points, thanks to strong support in the eastern part of the state but the Republican base in western Iowa seems more excited this year, making it harder for Obama. Iowa though is still trending toward Obama, with Nate Silver giving Obama a 66% chance of winning due to polls showing a small lead for Obama. Also, early voting numbers have been strong here. One important note is that in 2008, polls showed Obama with a double digit lead but he won by only 9 so Republicans can overperform in polls here. 

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) New Hampshire has a strong libertarian streak and Romney did very well here in the primary. The Republicans' views on social issues have gone too far to the right to win over enough New Hampshire voters. Romney needs to win New Hampshire by doing will in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties but since the Republican party brand is unpopular in New Hampshire this year (Democrats are looking to regain both house seats,) Obama should have an advantage. Romney's moderation though is helping him personally because he pulled close in a few polls last week and even led in a few. The most recent ones suggest Obama is coming back and RCP has him leading by 2.0

Ohio (18 electoral votes) Ohio is a state where I first thought Obama would fare poorly because he is not too popular with the state's large working class population. Romney however seems more out of touch with them and his opposition to the bailout which resurrected the auto industry does not help either. Obama is benefiting from the auto industry's revival and Ohio's low unemployment rate. This could help him in the important swing areas in Ohio he needs to win. For Obama to win Ohio, he needs high turnout in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland,) Franklin County (Columbus,) Summit County (Akron,) and Lucas County (Toledo.) The swing areas include Hamilton County (Cincinnati,) the rural counties between Toledo and Cleveland and the rural counties along the Ohio River. Anyway, Obama was doing well here in late September but after the 1st debate, polls showed a closer race. Obama regained his lead though, only one poll conducted since October 17th has shown Romney in the lead out of 18 polls released since then. All polls do show a 20%+ lead for Obama among early voters though, suggesting his ground game is very strong in Ohio. 

Virginia (13 electoral votes) Obama won Virginia by seven points in 2008, Obama won the Presidency by seven points in 2008. It seems that Virginia will be a tipping point state again this year with the RCP average showing Obama with a 1 point lead there. Virginia has done well under Obama though with a lower than average unemployment rate. The Obama Administration's Defense spending has helped create jobs here due to the military presence of the Pentagon and in the Hampton Roads area. For Obama to win here, he has to win big in Northern Virginia which has helped Virginia trend Democratic as immigrants and upper middle class families from DC (like my family,) moved out to the suburbs to raise their kids. Also, he needs to increase African American turnout in the Richmond and Hampton Roads regions which have large African American populations. Republicans need to rely on their base of rural southwest Virginia and win the exurban counties surrounding the urban Democratic areas in Northern Virginia and Richmond. The bellwether counties include Loudon and Henrico Counties. Loudon County is the nation's 4th fastest growing county and has a mix of rural conservatives with Asians, Hispanics and residents from the inner DC area. Loudon County was crucial for Jim Webb's (D) successful Senate election in 2006 as well as Tim Kaine's (D) successful Gubernatorial election in 2005 because Loudon County shows whether rural Virginia or suburban Virginia turned out stronger. Henrico County is a Richmond suburb which has a large African American population and if Obama wins there, it shows he has successfully increased African American turnout. Virginia looks to be decided by less than 1 point though. The southwest part of the state which delivered the 2004 election for Bush is turning out strongly but the African American community in the Hampton Roads is energized as are the Hispanics in Northern Virginia so it will be very close in Virginia. Polls seem to show Obama getting a small lead here. 





Toss Up/Tilt Republican (15 electoral votes)


Florida (29 electoral votes) Florida was a pure tossup back in August but seems to be slightly tilting towards Romney. Demographically though, Florida is divided into three distinct regions. The Gold Coast, the I-4 Corridor and the rest of the state. The Gold Coast is southeast Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade Counties,) which is filled with Jewish retirees, African Americans and Cubans. The area usually votes Democratic but Cubans in Miami Dade County usually prevent Democrats from receiving more than 55% of the vote in that county. Broward and Palm Beach Counties have less Cubans though and usually vote 60%-65% Democratic but turnout in those areas is crucial. In 2010, Gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink (D) barely lost statewide because turnout in Palm Beach and Broward Counties was low. Obama though has been working on outreach to Hispanics, especially non Cuban Hispanics. The non Cuban Hispanics have a large presence on the I-4 Corridor and helped swing it strongly toward Obama. They have a large presence in Orlando and Tampa and are a fast growing segment of the population. Also, many of them are Puerto Rican which means they are citizens and can vote so Democrats have lots of voters to register. Obama has around 70 field offices in Florida compared to Romney's 30 so Democrats definitely have an advantage on the ground. The third part of the state is the rest of the state which consists of rural northern Florida, Jacksonville and conservative retirement communities along the southwest Florida coast. Romney is expected to do very well in this area but if Obama can win Duval County (Jacksonville) which has a large African American population, he will probably win Florida. Overall, the polls show the race within 1 point of each candidate. Political analyst Nate Silver made an interesting point though, "Romney has only a 0.3% chance of winning the election without Florida." Silver is right and it also means if Obama wins Florida + Kerry states, he hits 275 electoral votes so Romney has to win 6 electoral votes from the Kerry states and prevent Obama from winning any state that voted for Bush in 2004 (with New Mexico and Nevada leaning Democratic this year, that looks pretty unlikely.) So if Romney wants to be President, he has to win Florida. Polls are showing a slight Romney lead but early voting started last Sunday and the Secretary of State is reporting high numbers for the Democrats. 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)  North Carolina is trending Democratic demographically but I do not believe the Democrats are winning here this time. The reason is that in 2008, Obama completely maxxed out the turnout in Durham (which may not be repeated because the large numbers of young voters are less excited this year than in 2008,) Charlotte, the heavily African American northeastern part of the state and Obama still won by only 14,000 votes. North Carolina is a base state where Democrats and Republicans have to bring out their bases in order to win (Republicans bring out the exurban and rural white conservatives, Democrats bring out the college students and the African Americans,) instead of a state such as Iowa and Ohio where Democrats win by persuading voters. In 2008, the Republican base was not very excited and the Republicans barely even targeted North Carolina. All the Republicans need to do is erase a 14,000 vote lead and that should be pretty easy for them. I predict the demographic changes will help the Democrats make it close but I still see a 2-3 point win for Republicans here. Also, the early voting numbers look good for the Democrats with a PPP poll showing a tied race but a 57%-42% lead for Obama in the early votes. Most polls though show a slight Romney lead. The Romney campaign shifted one staffer from NC to OH and spun it as "pulling out of NC" but NC is still being contested by both campaigns, even if Romney has an advantage. 

Lean Republican (12 electoral votes)

Arizona (11 electoral votes) Earlier this year, the Obama campaign talked about putting Arizona in play. On paper, Arizona seems to be trending Democratic because it has a fast growing Hispanic population and lots of college students (Arizona State has 70,000 students, it is the largest public university in the country.) Also, Democrats are looking to gain two congressional seats too. Arizona though has a very conservative non persuadable base though in the Phoenix area who are strongly for Romney. Also, the state's Mormon population will boost him.  

So where do these rankings leave Obama? Although his path to winning seems more rocky than it did before the debate, Obama still has an advantage. He has maintained leads in the Gore/Kerry states which total 242 electoral votes. He also is ahead in New Mexico so the safe Obama states have a total of 247 electoral votes. To win, Obama needs 23 more electoral votes from the tilt Democratic or tossup states. Obama has been leading in Nevada so I will give him Nevada, giving him 253 electoral votes. From here, all Obama needs to do is win 17 more electoral votes. He can win that by winning VA + NH, NH + IA +CO, or simply win OH. Obama has strong leads in OH and IA so I would expect him to win those states. If he wins Gore/Kerry states, NV, IA and OH, he has 277 electoral votes which is enough to win. He is also leading in NH so he should get 281. The true tossup states are VA and CO and if Obama won both, he should win 303. From the looks of it now, Obama should receive between 281 and 303 electoral votes, enough to win. 

Florida Election Prediction 2012

What makes Florida such a close swing state? What must the President and Romney do in order to win there? I will examine those questions in my post.

This is my 2nd post in my swing state series. The first post examined Colorado here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/colorado-election-prediction-2012.html  In this post, I will look at the demographics and political trends of certain regions in Florida. I will also use election baselines to estimate what percentages the President needs to win Florida. For the baselines, I incorporated the 2008 Presidential election results and the 2010 Gubernatorial results. They show the minimum percentage the President needs in each county in order to win statewide. Anyway, here is a brief political history of Florida:

For the last 20 years, Florida has been a close swing state. It was heavily Republican in the 1980s but in 1996, Clinton won Florida by keeping down Republican margins in North Florida and winning big in the Gold Coast. In 2000 however, Al Gore (D) lost Florida by the painstaking margin of 537 votes. He won big margins in the Gold Coast area but did not do well enough in North Florida and the swing I-4 Corridor to win. When Bush won in 2004, it seemed that Florida was trending Republican because of the heavily Republican Cuban voters and the Republican trend in North Florida. In 2008 though, the President shocked many observers by pulling Florida back to the Democratic column. He did so by winning large margins in heavily Hispanic Miami Dade County. He won 57% of Hispanics statewide which helped him win the I-4 Corridor which is the swing part of the state. In 2012 though, Romney hopes to win Florida and he may be able to do so by eroding Obama's margins in the Gold Coast and doing well in the fast growing parts of Florida. Anyway, here are the three main regions of Florida:

Blue Counties = Gold Coast
Purple Counties = I-4 Corridor
Red Counties = Rest of Florida

The Gold Coast: 
The Gold Coast consists of four counties: Palm Beach, Broward, Miami Dade and Monroe Counties. This is the most Democratic area of Florida. The reason is that it has large African American and Jewish populations, especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties. The counties are very urban, containing a combined 5+million people. They are filled with Jewish voters who moved down from the New York area and other residents of the Northeast. Although the African American and Jewish populations keep Palm Beach and Broward Counties strongly Democratic (they both voted 60%+ for the Democratic Presidential candidates since 2000,) Miami Dade is less Democratic. The reason is that it is 65% Hispanic and many of those Hispanics are Cubans. Cubans usually vote Republican because they view Republicans as tough on Castro. The Cubans in 2000 and 2004 prevented Gore and Kerry from winning more than 53% of the vote in Miami Dade County but Obama won 58% of the vote there. How? He turned out non Cuban Hispanics which are more sympathetic toward the Democratic Party and now outnumber Cubans in Florida. Also, many young American born Cubans consider Castro less of an issue than their parents did so they are now swing voters. A recent poll showed Obama leading Romney among Florida Hispanics by 30 points, suggesting that he is making inroads among young Cubans too. So if Obama is performing better among Hispanics than in 2008, why is he not leading in Florida? One issue, the elderly Jewish voters. In 2000, Gore performed well with them, most likely because of his VP candidate Joe Lieberman but Obama is having a tougher time connecting with those voters. Many of them dislike Obama's stance on Israel. but if Obama is able to offset losses among the Jewish voters with gains with Hispanics and high African American turnout, he stands a good chance to win.

Baselines:
Broward County: Obama 66%, Romney 34%
Miami Dade County: Obama 57%, Romney 43%
Palm Beach County: Obama 60%, Romney 40%

I-4 Corridor
The I-4 Corridor consists of the cities following I-4 which cuts across Central Florida. The I-4 Corridor contains the Tampa area, the Orlando area and the Daytona Beach area. It is the fastest growing part of Florida, has many middle class voters and 40 years ago, the Orlando area was mostly orange groves. The I-4 Corridor is a mix of retirees and families from the Midwest who lean Republican and a very fast growing Hispanic population (mostly Puerto Rican) who lean Democratic. In 2004, Bush trounced Kerry in the I-4 Corridor by winning over Hispanics. Bush lost only two counties in the I-4 Corridor. In 2008 though, Obama performed extremely well. He won large margins in the Orlando area, winning 59% in Orange County (which had a high African American turnout and a fast growing Hispanic population,) and 59% in Osceola County which is nearly majority Hispanic. He even performed well in the traditionally Republican Tampa area, winning traditionally Republican Hillsborough County (Tampa.) Hillsborough used to be more Republican than Florida but it is trending Democratic faster than Florida and in 2010, Gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink (D) won Hillsborough County by 4 points despite losing statewide by 1. Therefore, Obama must win Hillsborough County or he will be in trouble. Romney though hopes to do well in the I-4 Corridor by winning over Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 because of the economic downturn which hurt the I-4 Corridor. Also, turnout is very important too because some polls predict lower Hispanic turnout. Obama's ground game has been very active in the I-4 Corridor though which should help bring out the Hispanic vote and the sizable African American population in Hillsborough and Orange Counties. Also, a good bellwether to watch would be Volusia County (Daytona Beach) and Flager County. Volusia voted for Gore by 8 points but has trended Republican because its large number of native Floridians (there are many southern accented voters here,) have trended Republican throughout the rest of northern Florida. Flager County was the fastest growing county of the 2000s and was hard hit by the recession when it voted for Obama in 2008. It may swing to Romney though because of the economy. I expect Obama to lose strength in the Gold Coast area so for him to win statewide, he must win the I-4 Corridor.

Baselines:
Flager County: Obama 48%, Romney 52%
Hillsborough County: Obama 52%, Romney 48%
Osceola County: Obama 56%, Romney 44%
Orange County: Obama 57%, Romney 43%
Pinellas County: Obama 53%, Romney 47%
Volusia County: Obama 50.6%, Romney 49.4%

Rest of the State: 
The rest of Florida outside the I-4 Corridor and the Gold Coast is mostly very conservative. The rest of Florida consists of the west coast which has Midwestern retirees, southwest Florida with wealthy conservative retirees, Jacksonville with a sizable African American population and a conservative white population and the Panhandle which resembles Alabama more than Miami. North Florida used to be Democratic leaning but similarly to rural areas in Georgia and Alabama, North Florida has trended away from the Democrats. Demographically, North Florida west of Jacksonville is lower income culturally conservative voters similar to the rest of the rural South. Jacksonville is another story because Duval County (Jacksonville) voted for McCain by only 2 points as the African American population there grows and the conservative whites move into the suburbs such as fast growing Clay and Nassau Counties. Southwest Florida trended toward Obama in 2008 but should swing back to Romney in 2012 because he should perform well with the wealthy fiscal conservatives there. Also, since the retirees there are well off, Ryan's vouchercare is not a major issue for them. The only strongly Democratic areas here includes the Tallahassee area which has a large African American and Government workers population. For Obama to win Florida, he just has to keep margins down in this region by coming close in Jacksonville or winning it. Jacksonville recently elected a Democratic African American mayor which suggests Jacksonville may be trending towards the Democrats. Obama also needs to make inroads among the less wealthy retirees in Hernando and Citrus Counties by using the Medicare issue but he did not do well there in 2008 so he may have a harder time.

Baselines:
Duval County: Obama 48%, Romney 52%
Escambia County (Pensacola): Obama 40%, Romney 60%
Hernando County: Obama 46%, Romney 54%
Lee County (Fort Myers): Obama 41%, Romney 59%


Overall, keep a few ideas in mind on election night? Is Obama performing well in Miami Dade and Osceola Counties which have large Hispanic populations? Does Palm Beach County have a greatly reduced margin compared to 2008? How well is Romney doing in Citrus and Hernando Counties with middle income seniors? Also, how well is Obama performing in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties which have been trending Democratic quickly? These questions will show which candidate is winning in Florida.

Colorado Election Prediction 2012

What makes Colorado such a close swing state? What do and Obama and Romney have to do to win there? Has Colorado always been such a close swing state? What counties do Obama and Romney need to win in order to win Colorado? I will examine those questions in my post.

This is my first post in a series of posts analyzing the important battleground states of the Presidential election. I recently wrote a post with a similar format for Wisconsin http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/06/wisconsin-recall-race-election-night.html for the recall election. In these posts, I will discuss the demographics and political trends of each state. I will also discuss the bellwether areas of each state as well as the county baselines Obama needs in order to win statewide. I will be writing this series alphabetically so I will start with Colorado. This post primarily focuses on the baseline and to create the election baseline, I incorporated the results of the 2008 Presidential election and the 2010 Senatorial election. I incorporated the 2008 Presidential results because it shows Obama's previous performance in Colorado and I incorporated the 2010 Senatorial race because it shows how a close election looks in Colorado. As for the baseline percentages, they show the minimum percentage Obama needs in each county to win in Colorado. Anyway, here is a brief political history of Colorado:

Colorado was once a Republican leaning state. It only voted Democratic once between 1968 and 2004. As recently as 2000, Bush won Colorado by 8 points. The Republican margins in the suburban and rural counties easily outweighed Democratic margins in Boulder and Denver. In 2004 though, Colorado began to trend toward the Democrats. They gained the State Legislature and a Senate seat while Kerry lost statewide by 5 points. In 2006, they gained the Governorship then the other Senate seat in 2008 with Obama winning by 9 points statewide. In 2010, they lost the State House but kept the Senate seat by 2 points. This Democratic trend was fueled by an influx of Hispanics into the Denver area, college educated voters into the Boulder area and wealthy liberals into the ski areas. Republicans hope they can reverse the trend and claim they can because Colorado's economy is improving too slowly. Most polls show Obama with a small 3 point lead but the lead could shift a bit before Election Day. Now I will look at the Democratic, Republican and swing areas in Colorado.

Colorado's Democratic areas:

Most states such as Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania have extremely Democratic urban areas and extremely Republican rural areas. In Colorado, the urban core of Denver is Democratic (I will get to the suburbs later,) but not all the rural areas are conservative. There is a "C" shape of counties that cuts through the center of the state along the Rocky Mountains. This "C" contains counties in the north which have ski resorts such as Aspen and Steamboat Springs. The ski areas usually outvote the rural Republicans in the center counties but if the ski area turnout is low, Republicans might make a few surprise wins. The southern part of the "C" contains counties such as Costilla and Pueblo which are Democratic leaning due to the large Hispanic population there. Although many of the Hispanics there were born in the U.S., they still lean strongly Democratic. Although the ski counties and the heavily Hispanic areas in southern Colorado take up space in Colorado, they hold relatively few voters. The main base for the Democrats in Colorado is in Boulder and Denver Counties. Denver County contains the city of Denver with its large liberal white population as well as large numbers of African Americans and Hispanics. Denver usually votes 70%+ Democratic but it needs to have high turnout. Boulder is heavily Democratic because of the extremely liberal university there and the large number of college educated voters and environmentally conscious voters there. It has also been one of the fastest Democratic trending areas too. Gore won here by only 14 points but Obama in 2008 won by 46 points. Anyway, here are the baselines for Obama in the main Democratic areas.

Baselines:

Boulder Obama 69%-31%

Denver Obama 73%-27%

Pitkin Obama 71%-29%

Pueblo Obama 54%-46%

Colorado's Republican areas:

Republicans in Colorado dominate in the far western and eastern parts of the state. The western parts contain many rural conservatives as well as Mormons near the Utah border. The main city in this area is Grand Junction in Mesa County. The eastern part of the state contains many evangelical Christians which is similar to states such as Nebraska and Kansas along the eastern border. The most populous county in this group is Weld County which has a fast growing Hispanic population but Weld County is 67% White and most of the white voters here are very conservative. The center of the state has a few Republican areas too, including the 2nd most populous county in Colorado, El Paso County (Colorado Springs.) Colorado Springs has a few Hispanic areas as well as liberal Colorado College but those areas are outvoted strongly by the large religious and military presence in Colorado Springs. The other large Republican county is Douglas County which is a fast growing suburban county south of Denver. It has nearly 300,000 people today, up from 60,000 in 1990. While the other suburbs are mostly 50-50, Douglas County has a large population of religious and fiscal conservatives. Obama made gains here though because he won 40% of the vote here in 2008 compared to Kerry's 33% in 2004. For Romney to win, he needs to win back a large number of those voters and match the baselines.

Baselines:

Douglas Obama 37%-63%

El Paso Obama 36%-64%

Mesa Obama 32%-68%

Weld Obama 40%-60%

Colorado's suburban/swing areas: 

The swing areas of Colorado are the more mature suburban areas unlike Douglas County which contains a mix of fiscally conservative voters and evangelical Christians and has an 85% White population. The more mature suburban areas are Jefferson, Adams, Broomfield and Arapahoe Counties which are fast growing but have areas that are mostly built up and filled with socially liberal middle class voters. Also, Adams and Arapahoe have fast growing minority populations (Adams has a 35% Hispanic population,) which are helping them trend more Democratic. Adams leans Democratic, mainly due to the large minority population but Arapahoe and Jefferson have voted near or at the state average in the last few elections. These counties were key to Michael Bennett's (D) Senatorial win. In 2010, he faced a strong challenge from social conservative Ken Buck (R) but Bennett won by highlighting Buck's extreme views on abortion rights which worked well for Bennett with the socially liberal unaffiliated women voters in the suburban areas. He won both Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties. Arapahoe County usually votes 1-2 points more Democratic than Colorado and Jefferson usually matches the statewide percentage so these two counties are good barometers. Not only are Adams, Arapahoe and Jefferson County key barometers, they also contain 30% of Colorado's population so they have a strong pull on the rest of the state. The other key swing area is Larimer County which will be a barometer for how well Obama is performing with young and well educated voters who are socially liberal but not as liberal on economic issues. Larimer County used to have similar demographics to Douglas County but as Fort Collins which is in Larimer County gained more college educated environmentally conscious residents, it began to take on similar characteristics to Boulder and helped Larimer County trend more Democratic. Republicans though can win Larimer County by performing well in the southern part of the county which is more exurban and conservative like next door Weld County. Here are the baselines for the swing areas:

Baselines:

Adams Obama 54%-46%

Arapahoe Obama 52%-48%

Broomfield Obama 51%-49%

Jefferson Obama 50.2%-49.8%

Larimer Obama 50.3%-49.7%

Map of all baseline counties (map is courtesy of U.S Census Quick facts.) Blue is Democratic, Red is Republican and purple is suburban/swing. 

What to Watch for on Election Night: 

While the election results are coming in, keep a few thoughts in mind. Is there a clear blue "C" shape extending from the New Mexico to the Wyoming border or is it broken in a few places? Is Denver surrounded by blue counties or is it a little blue island in a sea of red? Another important factor is watching how the bases compare in the vote totals. If El Paso County casts a larger Republican margin than Denver's Democratic one, the race is over (like in 2000) and Republicans have won statewide, probably by 6 or more points. If Boulder cancels out Colorado Springs (like in 2008,) the race is over and Democrats have probably won statewide by 4 or more points. To avoid a blowout, Democrats and Republicans have to keep El Paso County's (Colorado Springs) Republican margin between the Democratic margins of Boulder and Denver. Whether Colorado Springs's margin gets closer to Denver's or Boulder's determines who wins statewide. The most important thought to keep in mind though is who is winning Jefferson County? That one county voted only 0.2% away from Bennett's and Obama's combined statewide percentages, it is the most accurate barometer for Colorado and which candidate won the suburban moderates. That will determines who wins Colorado and possibly who the next President is. 

The Three Big Battlegrounds of the East

The three big battlegrounds of the presidential election. What do you think they are. Do you think they are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvaina. If that is your guess, you are two thirds right. Obama is leading in every poll by either the high single digits or low double digits. McCain still thinks he can win there but with Philadelphia probably going to deliever Obama something a bit over a 450,000 vote margin and the horrible economy, McCain should pull out of there. The state that takes Pennsylvania's place is not Virginia, it looks like Obama will win there by five points. The state that really will be close is North Carolina. It is the third big battleground in the Eastern time zone. These three states are going to be very close in the general election and while you are watching the returns on election night, we are going to tell you what to look for when the results start trickling in.

In Ohio, probably the most competitive state this election, there are alot of things to watch for. Obama is planning to do really well in Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Its population is 29% African American and the county is heavily unionized. Kerry got a margin there of 227,000 votes but it was not enough. Obama will have to do better than Kerry there and can probably get about an extra 40,000 votes. Another place Obama has to do well is Franklin County which contains Columbus. It is a well educated area with some African Americans. Obama would probably need to get a margin at a minimum of 20,000 votes or higher than Kerry's. Then there is Hamilton County which contains Cinnecinati. We believe that if Obama can win Hamilton County, he will win Ohio. Bush won Hamilton County by 23,000 votes and about 23% African American. They will definitely turnout strongly for him and they may be what it takes for Obama to win. Then there is the rural and conservative western part of the state where Obama needs to keep down McCain's margins. Since the area turned out heavily in 2004, there is probably not much room for increase. Then there is the Manhoning valley where Obama needs to do better than Kerry. Since the economy is failing there, the voters may want change but the Hillary and Bradley effect are pretty prevalent there. They may not be enough.

In Florida, there are alot of things to monitor. Watch Miami Dade County and see how Obama is doing there. He will need to win that county by ten points or more. Miami Dade County has alot of African Americans and Cuban Americans and it will be important to see how the Hispanics will vote and how large the African American turnout will be. Obama will need to do better than Kerry in the rest of the Gold Coast. Palin was a big help to Obama in those counties because Jewish voters who were originally scared of Obama's race and opinions of Israel and more scared of how right wing Palin is. Then in the Tampa Bay area, Obama will need to win Pinellas County by about 5 points and he will need to win Hillsborough County. That county will be close and we think if Obama wins Hillsborough County, he will win Florida. In Orange County where Orlando is, Obama will need to win there by five points. The I-4 corrider votes one point more Republican than the rest of the state, if Obama can carry it, he wins Florida. The central part of the Panhandle will be interesting to watch. Tallahassee and small counties with alot of African Americans are located there. Obama needs to do much better there than Kerry did.

In North Carolina, there are less places to really analyze since it is the smallest state out of these three. Obama has to do very well in the northeastern part of the state which has alot of rural African American communities. Also an important county to watch is Wake County which contains Raleigh. Obama needs to carry the county by about ten points if he wants to win North Carolina. There are alot of well educated people and African Americans in that county. Also an important place to boost the turnout would be in Durham. Obama would need to carry Forsyth County which contains Winston Salem. If he carries that county, he wins the state. Bush won it by nine points last time but the county has a large African American population. Another really important county where Obama needs to win by ten points or more is Mecklenberg County where Charlotte is located. There is a large African American population there and communities of white liberals. McCain should do well in the western part of the state except for Asheville which Obama must carry. A place to watch should be southeastern North Carolina to see if Obama is able to keep down McCain's margins there.

For Ohio, what really should be watched is how well is Obama doing in Franklin County, who is winning Hamilton County, how large are Obama's margins in the Manhoning Valley. For Florida, who is winning Hillsborough County, how large are Obama's margins on the Gold Coast, how is McCain doing in the northern part of the state. In North Carolina, is Obama running well in Wake, Forsyth, Buncombe and Mecklenberg counties, how is McCain doing in the southeastern part of the state. Watch these things to see who wins.
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The Battle for the West

Obama instead of focusing almost completely on Pennorida (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) is now setting his sites on Nevexicado( Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado.) I think it is a good strategy. Al Gore focused only on Florida but lost because he tried to put all his eggs in one basket. Kerry tried to put his eggs in two baskets by focusing only on Florida and Ohio. Two was still not enough for him but Obama now is trying to put his eggs in more baskets. One is Iowa and Virginia, the other is Nevexicado. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado add up to 19 electoral votes. If Obama can hold onto all the Kerry states and completely win Nevexicado, he will be the president. Kerry did not try hard enough in those states and if he tried to put his eggs in that basket as well as Ohio and Florida, he would have won. Enough chitter chatter about eggs and baskets, let's start analyzing things and we can see how Obama can pull off a win in all three states.

New Mexico, this state should be the easiest for Obama to win out of these three. Bush won there by only 5,988 votes and the reason he won was that there was alot of turnout in heavily Republican Little Texas. Although Palin is able to excite the religious conservatives, she probably cannot do it at the level that Bush did. Also, Bush managed to receive 44% of the Hispanic vote. Obama can definitely do better than Kerry did among Hispanics. Also, he will do well in Liberal Santa Fe and can probably win Bernallio County by a larger margin than Kerry. Yes, Arizona is a neighbor of New Mexico but that will probably not be enough for McCain to win. Already, we have listed New Mexico as Lean Democratic on our most recent state rankings.

Nevada is another state Obama will have to win. It is a very unique state. The unions and the corporations are friends and the economy is mostly focused on the gambling industry. Kerry lost the state by 22,000 votes and the reason is that he did not do well enough with Hispanics and Bush did very well in the counties outside of Clark County (the Cow Counties) where Las Vegas is located. McCain cannot probably match the levels of turnout in the Cow Counties so he will need to do well with white voters in Clark County. Obama will need to do alot better with Hispanics there and can increase African American turnout. Palin will help McCain in the Cow Counties but it may not be enough. The Cow Counties have high turnout while Clark County has lower turnout. On election night, watch Washoe County where Reno is located. If Obama can win that county, he has won Nevada.

Colorado is the biggest of the three. It is also the state with the biggest Democratic trend. The Liberal populations of Denver and Boulder along with the growing number of Hispanics are a big help in making the state trend Democratic. There was very high turnout in those areas in 2004 so Democrats may have a hard time finding new voters there. They need to win by doing well with Independents and also need to do well on the Western Slope. If Obama wins Larmier, Jefferson and Araphone Counties, he will probably have won the state. The rural counties in the east won't turnout as strongly this year as 2004 but there is Colorado Springs. There is a large military population there and McCain will do well with it. This state we believe will be very close in the general election and it may come down to it.

Now here are the places to watch on election night. In New Mexico, is McCain doing well in Little Texas? Is Obama doing well in the Santa Fe and Albequerque areas? Is he doing well around Las Cruces? In Nevada, is Obama leading by about seven to nine points in Clark County? Is Washoe County really close? Is McCain doing well in the Cow Counties? In Colorado, is Obama winning the counties that we mentioned earlier, is he doing well on the Western Slope? How high is the turnout in Denver and Boulder? Is the turnout in Colorado Springs high? If you want to see who will win these states on election night before all the votes are in? These are the areas to watch. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting and voting on our poll.