Last State Rankings

Already the election season is almost over. Just three more days until we know the outcome of the presidential race and many other races. Since we wanted to get in a last update, here are the rankings for the states. Obama is still leading strongly. He is getting very close in states that no one thought he could win such as Indiana. Obama's 50 state strategy did work after all. In the rankings, Obama will appear to be doing alot better and we believe he will win because of the all the early voting and the excitment in his campaign. Also, something people never talk about is that alot of voters who are economically hurting but might feel uncomfortable about voting for a black man will probably vote for Obama in the end because of their pocketbooks. Now here are the rankings which are a little different than usual. The state that is number one is most likely to switch parties and the color it is in is the way it voted last presidential election.

1.Iowa

2.New Mexico
3.Colorado
4. Virginia
5.Nevada
6.Ohio
7.Florida
8.North Carolina
9.Missouri
10.Indiana
11.New Hampshire
12.Pennsylvania
13.Georgia
14.Arizona
15.Montana
16.North Dakota
17.West Virginia
18.Wisconsin
19.Michigan
20.Minniesota
21.South Dakota
22.Kentucky
23. Maine
24. Oregon
25. Washington
26. South Carolina
27. Mississippi
28. Arkansas
29. New Jersey
30. Conneticut
31. Texas
32. Tennessee
33. Louisiana
34. Alabama
35. Kansas
36. Rhode Island
37. Oklahoma
38. Nebraska
39. California
40. Vermont
41. Delaware
42. Idaho
43. Hawaii
44. Alaska
45. Vermont
46. Massachuttses
47. New York
48. Wyoming
49. Utah
50. Illinois
51. D.C

The last ones may not be as precise as we want because of polling data. Just put it this way, any state under 20th most likely to switch is definitely in the hands of the party that won it last time. The polls that show Pennsylvania getting closer probably will not be enough to switch it. If McCain does not win Pennsylvania, it is over. All Obama has to do is win New Mexico, Iowa and something else that has 6 or more electoral votes. Our current estimation is that Obama will come out with about 300 electoral votes.
Please feel free to comment on this post and vote on our poll.

The Governers Races

Well, we said that we would talk about the races for governer sometime this year. Sorry for the delay but we believe that predictions close to the elections are most accurate. We will have the state rankings on the weekend before the election. Also we want to point out that the poll we just put on the blog will close the moment polls in our home state (California) close. Now back to the governers races. Republicans see oppurtunities in two races for governers and those two races will be very close. If this were a Republican year or even a neutral year, those two governerships would go to the Republicans. This is a big Democratic year and that makes those two races much closer. We are going to put the four governer races that are most likely to switch. Two as we already said are held by Democrats while the others are held by Republicans. Enough chatter, to the rankings.

1. Missouri (Open Blunt)R
Matt Blunt was unpopular and probably would have lost anyway against Attorney General Democrat Jay Nixon. Having Roy Blunt the House minority whip be Matt's father certainly did not help him. Now Kenny Hulshof from Missouri's 9th congressional district is running but he seems to be faring no better. The most recent poll had Nixon ahead by 19 points. Put it this way, Nixon should start deciding how he wants to decorate the governer's mansion.
Estimation, Democratic win

2. North Carolina (Open Easley) D
This race will be extremely close. Charlotte mayor Pat McCroy (R) faces state senator Beverly Perdue (D.) Perdue was down four points in the most recent poll but a surge of young and African American voters driven by Obama may have been underestimated. Most polls only interview likely voters, not voters who vote only sometimes. Anyway, the only danger to Perdue is that she probably cannot pull a big margin out of Charlotte like Obama will because that is Pat McCroy's home turf. We may be surprised though.
Estimation Too Close to Call

3. Washington Gregorie D
Deja vu? Maybe, Dino Rossi is running against incumbent Christine Gregorie again. In 2004, the two politicans faced each other and after a lengthy recount, Gregorie won by only 129 votes. Recently, we thought that this race would be just like 2004 but recent polls show Gregorie getting a small lead. The Obama surge will definitely help and it may just be what Gregorie needs to win.
Estimation Small Denocratic win

4. Indiana Daniels R
What the Democrats thought would be a great chance for a pickup now is fading away. Daniels was originally unpopular but now seems to be getting his sealegs. The Democrats nominated State Senator Jill Long Thompson who was not a very good candidate. Most polls showed Daniels with a large lead except for the most recent one which had him ahead by four points. That could be showing a change of direction but probably not enough for Thompson to pull off a win. Obama definitely will help but it will probably not be enough.
Estimation 6 point Republican win

Please feel free to share your thoughts on the blog or this post by commenting.

The Three Big Battlegrounds of the East

The three big battlegrounds of the presidential election. What do you think they are. Do you think they are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvaina. If that is your guess, you are two thirds right. Obama is leading in every poll by either the high single digits or low double digits. McCain still thinks he can win there but with Philadelphia probably going to deliever Obama something a bit over a 450,000 vote margin and the horrible economy, McCain should pull out of there. The state that takes Pennsylvania's place is not Virginia, it looks like Obama will win there by five points. The state that really will be close is North Carolina. It is the third big battleground in the Eastern time zone. These three states are going to be very close in the general election and while you are watching the returns on election night, we are going to tell you what to look for when the results start trickling in.

In Ohio, probably the most competitive state this election, there are alot of things to watch for. Obama is planning to do really well in Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Its population is 29% African American and the county is heavily unionized. Kerry got a margin there of 227,000 votes but it was not enough. Obama will have to do better than Kerry there and can probably get about an extra 40,000 votes. Another place Obama has to do well is Franklin County which contains Columbus. It is a well educated area with some African Americans. Obama would probably need to get a margin at a minimum of 20,000 votes or higher than Kerry's. Then there is Hamilton County which contains Cinnecinati. We believe that if Obama can win Hamilton County, he will win Ohio. Bush won Hamilton County by 23,000 votes and about 23% African American. They will definitely turnout strongly for him and they may be what it takes for Obama to win. Then there is the rural and conservative western part of the state where Obama needs to keep down McCain's margins. Since the area turned out heavily in 2004, there is probably not much room for increase. Then there is the Manhoning valley where Obama needs to do better than Kerry. Since the economy is failing there, the voters may want change but the Hillary and Bradley effect are pretty prevalent there. They may not be enough.

In Florida, there are alot of things to monitor. Watch Miami Dade County and see how Obama is doing there. He will need to win that county by ten points or more. Miami Dade County has alot of African Americans and Cuban Americans and it will be important to see how the Hispanics will vote and how large the African American turnout will be. Obama will need to do better than Kerry in the rest of the Gold Coast. Palin was a big help to Obama in those counties because Jewish voters who were originally scared of Obama's race and opinions of Israel and more scared of how right wing Palin is. Then in the Tampa Bay area, Obama will need to win Pinellas County by about 5 points and he will need to win Hillsborough County. That county will be close and we think if Obama wins Hillsborough County, he will win Florida. In Orange County where Orlando is, Obama will need to win there by five points. The I-4 corrider votes one point more Republican than the rest of the state, if Obama can carry it, he wins Florida. The central part of the Panhandle will be interesting to watch. Tallahassee and small counties with alot of African Americans are located there. Obama needs to do much better there than Kerry did.

In North Carolina, there are less places to really analyze since it is the smallest state out of these three. Obama has to do very well in the northeastern part of the state which has alot of rural African American communities. Also an important county to watch is Wake County which contains Raleigh. Obama needs to carry the county by about ten points if he wants to win North Carolina. There are alot of well educated people and African Americans in that county. Also an important place to boost the turnout would be in Durham. Obama would need to carry Forsyth County which contains Winston Salem. If he carries that county, he wins the state. Bush won it by nine points last time but the county has a large African American population. Another really important county where Obama needs to win by ten points or more is Mecklenberg County where Charlotte is located. There is a large African American population there and communities of white liberals. McCain should do well in the western part of the state except for Asheville which Obama must carry. A place to watch should be southeastern North Carolina to see if Obama is able to keep down McCain's margins there.

For Ohio, what really should be watched is how well is Obama doing in Franklin County, who is winning Hamilton County, how large are Obama's margins in the Manhoning Valley. For Florida, who is winning Hillsborough County, how large are Obama's margins on the Gold Coast, how is McCain doing in the northern part of the state. In North Carolina, is Obama running well in Wake, Forsyth, Buncombe and Mecklenberg counties, how is McCain doing in the southeastern part of the state. Watch these things to see who wins.
Please feel free to leave your comment on this post.

Where the Senate Seats Stand

Now that it is exactly one month away from the election, everyone is talking about the presidential race. A few people are mentioning the Senate races but they are currently not a big deal right now. So if you are looking for some information on the Senate races, here is some. For more in depth talk about the Senate races, please look at our recent post about the Senate seats most likely to switch. As it looks, the North Carolina race is getting more competitive and Landrieu is getting safer despite all the calls saying she is still not out of the woods. The Minniesota race still is very close and the prospects for Democrats keep getting stronger and stronger but we still do not believe that Democrats can gain nine seats. Now, here are the rankings.


Solid Dem(11 seats)
Pryor(Arkansas) Biden(Delaware) Durbin(Illinois) Harkin(Iowa) Kerry(Massachusetts) Levin(Michigan) Baucus(Montana) Lautenberg(New Jersey) Reed(Rhode Island) Johnson(South Dakota) Rockerfeller(West Virginia)

Likely Dem(1 seat)
Virginia(Open Warner)

Lean Dem(5 seats)
Alaska(Stevens) Colorado(Open Allard) Landrieu(Louisiana) Sumunu(New Hampshire) New Mexico(Open Domenichi)

Toss Up(4 seats)
Coleman(Minniesota) Wicker(Mississippi) Dole(North Carolina) Smith(Oregon)

Lean Rep(2 seats)
McConnel(Kentucky) Collins(Maine)

Likely Rep(3 seats)
Chambliss(Georgia) Inhofe(Oklahoma) Cornyn(Texas)

Solid Rep(9 seats)
Sessions(Alabama) Idaho(Open Criag) Roberts(Kansas) Cochran(Mississippi) Nebraska(Open Hagel) South Carolina(Graham) Alexander(Tennessee) Enzi(Wyoming) Barrasso(Wyoming)

From the looks of it, Democrats will certainly get at least five seats. They will have to win every seat that is a toss up to reach the goal of 60. That will not happen. They will probably gain either 6 or 7. The Minniesota race is dead even, along with the Oregon. Also if Stevens is accquited in his trial, he will have a much better chance of retaining his seat. In Mississippi, Wicker has a lead of about three points but it could be diminished. Also, people thought the New Hampshire race would get really close but Shaheen continues to hold a lead. Dole in North Carolina has a smaller chance of surviving now and it seems to be tilting to Hagan.
Please feel free to comment on this post.

States Most Likely to Switch

Obama is experiencing a surge in the polls currently and many more states are coming into play. A couple of weeks ago, everyone said Obama was doing horribly but look at where he is now. Although polls have not given him a lead in Ohio yet, they probably will soon. People are finally realizing how far right Palin really is and Obama was able to hold up against McCain in the debate. It will be interesting to see how Biden does in the debate. Now with the states, North Carolina and Florida are getting alot closer and Obama has a much better chance of winning those states now. Also, Indiana is getting more close but there are not many polls from that state so we don't really know what the outlook is there. We will say one thing, Obama would win the election if it were held today and it will take a major flop to make him lose. So far, that has not happened. The format for the rankings is the same as the one for the Senate. Here are the states most likely to switch parties.

1. Iowa
The Real Clear Politics average is Obama ahead by nine points. Being a neighbor of Illinois is definitely an asset here. With turnout in the west not as high as 2004 and with larger turnout in the university areas, this state is for Obama.

2. New Mexico
Obama's lead here is almost as large as the one in Iowa. Again, the turnout in Little Texas will not be high enough and Obama will probably do better with Hispanics than Kerry did. McCain is a neighbor but that is probably not enough for him to win. Also, there will probably be highly increased turnout in the Santa Fe area.

3. Colorado
After thinking for a long time about where we should put it on the line, we finally decided here. Why? The recent polls show Obama up by an average of five points and there will likely be very high turnout in the Boulder area because its House member, Mark Udall is running for Senate. For more in depth analysis of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, please see the Battle for the West.

4.Virginia
Earlier in the month, we thought that this state was probably going for McCain although Obama may have been able to get a comeback. It seems like he has one and most polls right now show him with a small lead. The reason is most likely that voters in Fairfax County and the rest of northern Virginia are not so fond of Palin, her inexperience and her far right views. The heavy turnout of African Americans may not be as high as hoped but probably will still be enough to make Obama win the state. This could be the Ohio of 2008.

5. Ohio
This state has economic woes and a high unemployment rate. The state wants a different direction for the country. McCain hopes to win by turnout in southwest Ohio. It is possible Obama could win Hamilton which contains Cinncenati by large African American turnout but that win would be offset by the suburbs. Obama needs to equal Kerry in counties around Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Ohio may be the state that decides this election and just like last year, should be watched closely.

6. Nevada
After wondering whether New Hampshire should hold this spot, we decided that Nevada would go here and New Hampshire would be at seven. Nevada as we said in a recent post is a different state from the other states in the area. The economy is on gambling and the corporations and unions are friends. For more details, please see the battle for the west post. Expect this state to be close.

7. New Hampshire
We think Obama has a better than 50% chance of winning this state but it is still just a small gap. New Hampshire is a state where McCain has always run strong. He won there in 2000 and in 2008 which virtually was the reason he is now on the ballot for president. Obama will try to run up margins in the western counties but he must make sure he can keep McCain's margins in the suburbs of Boston low enough so they can't offset Obama's margins.

8. North Carolina
Well we thought that this state was completely written off for Obama and McCain would win here in the high single digits. We even thought that number wise, it would be impossible for Obama to win but it seems that we were wrong. The African Americans in the state are definitely going to turnout strongly for Obama. So will the Liberals in Durham and Charlotte. Obama may even be able to do well among other groups. Although McCain will probably win here in the end. the state will be close.

9. Florida
This was another state that we had all but written off because of all the Republicans there and we thought it would be hard for Obama to attain the margins among Jewish voters that Kerry did. Polls are showing a closer race here and the Palin pick will hurt more than help in Florida. It will be very hard for a moderate Jewish voter who originally might support McCain but hates Palin because she is such a religious Christian. Also, Obama can probably create a large increase in turnout among African Americans here. Although McCain will probably win Florida in the end, Obama should try hard to win it.

10. Michigan
McCain thought that this would be the state he could pick off from Obama. Earlier in the month, we thought he may be correct but he was probably not. Poll after poll shows Obama with a lead here and that lead probably will not fall. Obama will turnout Detroit and do well with working class voters on the economy. McCain may come back but it is not likely.

Overall, we think Obama will win here. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.

Top Ten Senate Races

Our recent posts were about competitive states. We'll have more on that subject soon but right now, we are going to give an update on the Senate races. We've extended our rankings to ten from seven in our last post. Instead of putting the Senate seat most likely to switch on the bottom of the line, we will put it on the top of the line. It will still be ranked number one. The outlook for the Senate seems to be getting worse for the Republicans. The Republicans who seem to have escaped the possibility of a competitive race are Susan Collins, Mitch McConnel and John Cornyn. It seems likely that the Landrieu will win and that the Democrats will win about 5 to 7 seats. They won't have a filibuster proof majority but they may still be able to reject filibusters with help of moderate Republicans such as Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. The Democrats will finally be able to send "Traitor" Joe to the other side of the aisle. Enough chit chat, to the rankings.


1.Virginia
No surprise, even with Warner's poor keynote speech, he is leading at about 20 points. Jim Gilmore has absolutely no chance. Warner will be the next Senator from the Old Dominion and his great showing may help Obama enough to give the state to him.

2. New Mexico
Tom Udall has almost a great chance as Warner to win this seat. The NRCC have already pulled their ads out of the state. Pearce is just too conservative and Udall continues to lead by double digits. Also, Udall will be helped by the fact that Obama is leading in the mid single digits in most New Mexico polls and will probably win the state.


3. Colorado
This seat is probably going to switch as well. Bob Schaffer's strategy of painting Udall as a Boulder Liberal either hasn't worked or the voters don't mind. Colorado will be close this election but the Democratic trend in Colorado will probably be enough for Udall to win. He is currently leading in the mid single digits in most polls and that lead is likely to hold.

4. New Hampshire
After wondering whether New Hampshire and Alaska should hold this spot, we chose New Hampshire. Please note that we think New Hampshire is just a bit ahead of Alaska. Jeanne Shaheen has had a lead in the polls for the last few months but it seems to be dropping now. Some people think that Sumunu who has more money will be the winner. Although the race has been getting a bit closer, we expect Shaheen to win over Sumunu. This is not the first match between the two. Sumunu won by 4 points in 2002 which was a Republican leaning year. This is definitely another Democratic year which will probably be what it takes to make Sumunu lose.

5. Alaska
Stevens is still in trouble. He was indicted recently and his trial will be held soon. Some voters still do not seem to mind that Ted Stevens may have broken the law but enough care to make Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich have a small lead over Stevens. Palin may have helped Stevens a bit but now that her popularity is wearing down, Stevens will probably sink lower in the polls. Even if he is not found guilty, Stevens will be in for the fight of his life.

6. Minniesota
This was another race that we had a hard time placing on the rankings. It is just a hair ahead of Oregon. In the summer, Al Franken had trouble finding his footing and was not viewed very favorably. Now he has really started to campaign and the wind of change is in the air. Norm Coleman has to distance himself from Bush which is pretty hard. Also, Franken must do well in the Twin Cities core and keep Coleman's margins in the counties around the core lower than the margins in the core. Coleman won in 2002 because of turnout in the area. Expect this race to be one of the closest on the cycle.

7. Oregon
Even though Jeff Merkley is not the best candidate to beat Gordon Smith, this race is definitely getting close. Smith must distance himself from Bush and he is pretty moderate so it may not be too hard. Still, Smith must fight a wind of change and also must acknowledge that Obama will probably carry Oregon in the high single digits which will help Merkley. Although we think in the end that Smith will win by 2 to 3 points, this race could be decided by less than one point.

8. North Carolina
In June we thought that this could be a close race but a month later it seemed that Elizabeth Dole would have an easy time winning. That will not be the case. Kay Hagan seems to be coming back and a recent Rasmussen poll shows Hagan ahead by 3 points. Hagan will be helped by increased African American turnout and enthusiasm brought on by Obama. Also, Dole will have to distance herself from Bush which will be hard for her. This race could get closer and Hagan may be able to pull off a win.

9. Mississippi
There does not seem to be much hope for the Democrats here. Roger Wicker has been able to maintain a lead of about 5 to 6 points. Democrats may still be able to increase the amount of African American turnout but it probably will not be as high as they want. Ronnie Musgrove may be able to win a small share of the white vote but that probably will not be enough. We are not writing Musgrove off, we just think his chances are not good.

10. Louisiana
This race is no longer competitive. It is the only Democratic race on our rankings and it may not be on here any longer when we do our next Senate rankings. Landrieu continues to lead and a Rasmussen poll out today shows her leading by 13 points. That is a large lead and that means she is pretty safe. The only real reason we put this race on the line was that other races were not close enough.

We will probably put either one or two more posts with Senate rankings before election day. Your thoughts, questions and comments are always appreciated.

The Battle for the West

Obama instead of focusing almost completely on Pennorida (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida) is now setting his sites on Nevexicado( Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado.) I think it is a good strategy. Al Gore focused only on Florida but lost because he tried to put all his eggs in one basket. Kerry tried to put his eggs in two baskets by focusing only on Florida and Ohio. Two was still not enough for him but Obama now is trying to put his eggs in more baskets. One is Iowa and Virginia, the other is Nevexicado. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado add up to 19 electoral votes. If Obama can hold onto all the Kerry states and completely win Nevexicado, he will be the president. Kerry did not try hard enough in those states and if he tried to put his eggs in that basket as well as Ohio and Florida, he would have won. Enough chitter chatter about eggs and baskets, let's start analyzing things and we can see how Obama can pull off a win in all three states.

New Mexico, this state should be the easiest for Obama to win out of these three. Bush won there by only 5,988 votes and the reason he won was that there was alot of turnout in heavily Republican Little Texas. Although Palin is able to excite the religious conservatives, she probably cannot do it at the level that Bush did. Also, Bush managed to receive 44% of the Hispanic vote. Obama can definitely do better than Kerry did among Hispanics. Also, he will do well in Liberal Santa Fe and can probably win Bernallio County by a larger margin than Kerry. Yes, Arizona is a neighbor of New Mexico but that will probably not be enough for McCain to win. Already, we have listed New Mexico as Lean Democratic on our most recent state rankings.

Nevada is another state Obama will have to win. It is a very unique state. The unions and the corporations are friends and the economy is mostly focused on the gambling industry. Kerry lost the state by 22,000 votes and the reason is that he did not do well enough with Hispanics and Bush did very well in the counties outside of Clark County (the Cow Counties) where Las Vegas is located. McCain cannot probably match the levels of turnout in the Cow Counties so he will need to do well with white voters in Clark County. Obama will need to do alot better with Hispanics there and can increase African American turnout. Palin will help McCain in the Cow Counties but it may not be enough. The Cow Counties have high turnout while Clark County has lower turnout. On election night, watch Washoe County where Reno is located. If Obama can win that county, he has won Nevada.

Colorado is the biggest of the three. It is also the state with the biggest Democratic trend. The Liberal populations of Denver and Boulder along with the growing number of Hispanics are a big help in making the state trend Democratic. There was very high turnout in those areas in 2004 so Democrats may have a hard time finding new voters there. They need to win by doing well with Independents and also need to do well on the Western Slope. If Obama wins Larmier, Jefferson and Araphone Counties, he will probably have won the state. The rural counties in the east won't turnout as strongly this year as 2004 but there is Colorado Springs. There is a large military population there and McCain will do well with it. This state we believe will be very close in the general election and it may come down to it.

Now here are the places to watch on election night. In New Mexico, is McCain doing well in Little Texas? Is Obama doing well in the Santa Fe and Albequerque areas? Is he doing well around Las Cruces? In Nevada, is Obama leading by about seven to nine points in Clark County? Is Washoe County really close? Is McCain doing well in the Cow Counties? In Colorado, is Obama winning the counties that we mentioned earlier, is he doing well on the Western Slope? How high is the turnout in Denver and Boulder? Is the turnout in Colorado Springs high? If you want to see who will win these states on election night before all the votes are in? These are the areas to watch. Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting and voting on our poll.

State Rankings

It has been a long time since we posted the state rankings for the presidential election. We apoligize for not posting the rankings since June. During that time, alot of changes have been made. Palin has energized conservatives in the South and the rest of the country so Obama's plans to win Mississippi and Georgia with African American turnout are dashed. McCain will probably win those two states by ten to twelve points, lower than Bush's margin in Georgia and Mississippi. Also, Texas has been written off too and McCain will probably win by about 14 points. We never mentioned North Dakota and Montana as possible states for Obama but he won't win those states. Obama still has a shot at North Carolina but McCain seems to be leading there by about 4 to 6 points right now. Also, we had all but written off Indiana but we just saw a new poll with McCain up by only 2 points. That state is in play but we think Obama will not win it. Enough chatter, now to the rankings. States colored blue will have voted Democratic in 2004 and states colored red will have voted Republican in 2004.


Solid Dem(164 electoral votes)
California(55) Conneticut(7) Delaware(3) District of Columbia(3) Hawaii(4) Illinois(21) Maryland(10) Massachuttses(12) New York (31) Rhode Island(4) Vermont(3) Washington (11)


Likely Dem(19 electoral votes)
Maine(4) New Jersey (15)

Lean Dem(60 electoral votes)
Iowa(7) Minniesota(10) New Mexico(5) Oregon(7) Pennsylvania(21) Wisconsin(10)

Toss Up(68 electoral votes)
Colorado(9) Michigan(17) Nevada(5) New Hampshire(4) Ohio(20) Virginia(13)

Lean Rep(64 electoral votes)
Florida(27) Indiana(11) Missouri(11) North Carolina(15)

Likely Rep(21 electoral votes)
Georgia(15) Montana(3) North Dakota(3)

Solid Rep(144 electoral votes)
Alabama(9) Alaska(3) Arizona(10) Arkansas(6) Idaho(4) Kansas(6) Kentucky(8) Louisiana(9) Mississippi(6) Nebraska(5) Oklahoma(7) South Carolina(8) South Dakota(3) Tennessee(11) Texas(34) Utah(5) West Virginia(5) Wyoming(3)

Obama 243 McCain 227
The states really have been heading toward one candidate leaving the traditional battleground states along with Virginia. Soon, we will start posting posts that analyze the battleground states and a few of the leaners. Also, on our next ranking, do expect that Pennsylvania may be in the toss up catergory next because it is in the Lean Obama catergory by a thread. To test our or your own scenario, please visit http://www.270towin.com/ Thoughts and comments are always appreciated.

Gephardt, Bayh or Dodd for VP?

There is currently a lot of talk as to who the VPs will be. We are joining it and we have found three more picks for Obama. The former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana and Senator Chris Dodd from Conneticut. We always think we are out of VP ideas and then a few more come to mind. We have not seen one article mentioning Gephardt for VP but we have seen some for Bayh. Now that Jim Webb has left the VP playing field, Obama needs some new choices. Now, here are the upsides and downsides of these two possible VP candidates.

Richard Gephardt is from Missouri which will be close in the general election. That will help Obama there and as Gephardt is from the St. Louis area, it might increase turnout there. Also, Gephardt is very experienced which will be a big help to Obama on that issue. That does come with a problem. Gephardt may be seen as yesterday's news and not quite part of Obama's change message. Oh, did we mention Gephardt voted to authorize the Iraq war? The funny thing is no one is mentioning Gephardt as a possible VP candidate except for us. We did, however mention Wesley Clark and the media floated his name quickly after that.


Evan Bayh is the Junior Senator of Indiana. He is very popular in his home state and since Indiana may be competitive, Bayh could be enough to tilt it to Obama. Edwards did not give Kerry North Carolina but was not very popular. Bayh is much more popular so he may be helpful enough. Bayh has not been through the presidential process of being vetted but he does not seem to have any problems in his background. Also, Bayh has been a governer for two terms and has been in the U.S Senate since 1999. He is not as experienced as Joe Biden or Chris Dodd but he still has a good amount of experience under his belt. He was a big Hillary supporter during the primaries so he might be able to please them.


Chris Dodd is the Senior Senator from Conneticut. His location will not help much as Conneticut should vote for Obama anyway. He does have alot of experience and Obama needs someone like that on the ticket. Also, Dodd has been vetted and been through the presidential process. The problem is that he does not bring enough to the ticket and may be viewed as elitist. If Obama wants a VP with experience, he should pick someone other than Dodd.

When it comes down to it, Obama does have alot of choices and he should decide soon. He needs to get a VP so he can start concentrating on other things and have the VP there to help him. This may be our last post on possible VP's for Barack Obama because he is bound to choose soon. We do think we are finally out of ideas but we may have another post on possible VP's for McCain.