Virginia 2013 Governor Election Guide

2013 is an odd numbered year which means that there are no major U.S. House, Senate or Presidential elections (except for a few specials) so it is a relatively quiet year. There are two major Gubernatorial elections though and those are in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, the RCP average shows Republican incumbent Chris Christie ahead by 25 points due to goodwill from his Hurricane Sandy response (the effects still impact New Jersey today.) Virginia though has a streak of not electing a Governor of the same party as the incumbent President since the 1970s but a combination of factors look to break that streak. Virginia's demographic changes in Northern Virginia as well as Republican Gubernatorial candidate State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli's (R) stands on social issues are helping former DNC chair and friend of the Clintons Terry McAuliffe (D) lead Cuccinelli in every poll since July (even polls conducted by Republican leaning firms such as Rasmussen.) Cuccinelli also seems to have realized he is in trouble, he recently tweeted that "the only poll that matters is Election Day." This is one of the six things losing candidates say according to well known political analyst Staurt Rotheberg. Others include "I'm the next Scott Brown" and "My son is running my campaign."

The two other statewide offices up for a vote in Virginia are Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. For Lieutenant Governor, State Senator Ralph Northam (D) is posting double digit leads. Those leads grow as Virginian voters learn more and more about his opponent E.W. Jackson's views which include that "gay people are perverted and psychologically sick"  and that Planned Parenthood is the "KKK" When a reporter asked Jackson why he made these statements, he pretends he never said them. That strategy however is not working as Northam continues to lead. 

The Attorney General's race is much closer though where it is a contest between two State Senators named Mark. The Democrat, Mark Herring (D) is from Loudon County, the main bellwether county in Virginia (since 2001, only one Virginia general election candidate has won without carrying Loudon County.) Herring's record includes working on fixing transportation issues and bringing tech jobs to Northern Virginia. His opponent, Mark Obershain (R) is from the Shenandoah Valley, one of the most conservative areas in Virginia. While the other two statewide offices are locked up for the Democrats, this race has been close, mainly because Obershain is more moderate than Cuccinelli and Jackson. The Attorney General race is important policywise if there is a lawsuit against the gay marriage ban because the Attorney General can decide not to defend the ban. Also, the Attorney General of Virginia is important for other issues. For example, Cuccinelli in 2010 sued the U.S. Government over the Affordable Care Act and brought the case to the Supreme Court. 

This post overall will be devoted to dividing up the areas in Virginia and explaining how well Herring needs to perform in order to win. 

(map is courtesy of U.S. Census Quick facts. The author is responsible for coloring the regions.) 

Virginia can be divided into 7 regions:
1. Inner core (Dark Blue)
2. 1st Ring suburbs (Light Blue)
3. 2nd Ring suburbs (Purple)
4. Exurbs (Red)
5. Tidewater/Hampton Roads (Green)
6. Richmond Area (Yellow)
7. Rural Virginia (Gray)

The Inner core:
The Inner core includes Arlington and Alexandria, the first areas to experience suburban growth from Washington D.C. in the 1970s. These areas have large numbers of well educated professionals, many of them white. D.C. is famous for having 80%+ of its white voters voting Democratic and many of those voters have moved to Arlington and Alexandria.

For Dems:
These voters fit McAuliffe's business and D.C. connection profile well and while he will overperform in Virginia as a whole, there needs to be high turnout here to carry Herring over the top.

1st Ring suburbs:
Fairfax County would constitute that 1st ring of suburbs. The voters here are also mainly well educated professionals who are socially liberal and fiscally moderate. There is a fast growing immigrant community of Hispanics and Asians in Fairfax County. Back in the 1980s and the 1990s, Fairfax County grew as families (including mine,) left Washington D.C. Fairfax County used to be a heavily Republican bastion that even  Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton failed to win. In 2004 though, Fairfax County voted Democratic Presidentially for the first time in decades with Kerry winning 53% of the vote. Part of this was due to the trend among socially liberal suburbanites toward the Democrats as the Republicans shifted right on cultural issues. The influx of Asians and Hispanics helped the Democrats even further while the more conservative voters moved out into the exurbs and the 2nd ring.

For Dems:
McAuliffe should overperform here because he is the kind of Democrat that this area will support. He is white collar, well educated, a successful businessman and he has ties to Washington (many of the residents here are involved in the Government.) Northern Virginia is famous for propelling these kinds of Democrats such as Mark Warner (D) in the 2001 Gubernatorial race and Jim Webb (D) in his 2006 Senatorial race to victory in extremely close races. If a Republican emphasizes the economy and his business credentials though, they can win as Bob McDonnell (R) showed when he won Fairfax County in 2009. McAuliffe though is the right fit for this area and Cuccenelli's social issues extremism should hurt him here. McAuliffe could win about 65% of the vote here if he wins more than 55% statewide. Cuccenelli though is a former State Senator from Fairfax County so it will be important to see whether latent goodwill here will trump over his social extremism.

2nd ring suburbs:
Prince William and Loudon County used to be heavily Republican counties but have become bellwethers. The counties themselves are both swing counties but are very different from each other. Loudon County is very upscale (a 100k income here is considered average,) is 65% White with the other 35% being a mix between Hispanics and Asians. The Democrats here are socially liberal while the Republicans here are economic conservatives similar to the Wall Street voter (there are a few evangelicals in the western part of the county but their presence is diminishing.) In Prince William County, the scene is different with many evangelicals and Hispanics and African Americans. President Obama won 57% here in 2012 due to the turnout among African Americans and Hispanics but this should not be taken for granted as a Democratic area. Turnout rates among minorities usually drop in non Presidential elections.

For Dems: In 2012, President Obama won Loudon County (albeit very narrowly) even though Romney connected with the upscale economic conservatives due to the area's large Asian vote swinging strongly for Obama. McAuliffe can overperform Obama among the economic conservatives and Loudon County is the perfect county to test if Obershain is associated enough with Cuccenelli. In Prince William County, McAuliffe must increase turnout among the African Americans and Hispanics who are the main Dem voter base there.

Exurbs:
This area includes Faquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties. These are counties boarding the 2nd ring suburbs of Washington D.C. They are a mix of rural and new subdivisions. Unlike the inner suburbs, these areas are less diverse and have more in common with rural Virginia than they do with Fairfax County. These areas are not as Republican as other exurban areas are including the Atlanta suburbs but they still lean in a Republican direction.

For Dems: Although voters here are not socially liberal, it is possible McAuliffe can win Stafford or Spotsylvania Counties if Cuccinelli's implosion in the polls translates into votes. Herring should not expect to win any counties here but should be able to at least reach the mid 40s in Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties. If he is unable to do so, it will be problematic for him.

Tidewater Virginia:
Tidewater Virginia is also known as the Hampton Roads Region. This area has a strong military presence and a large African American population, creating a perfect swing area. The major Democratic areas are Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton and Newport News while the more Republican areas are York County and Virginia Beach. The swing areas are Suffolk and Chesapeake. President Obama won both areas in his 2008 and 2012 elections and barely lost Virginia Beach both times. In 2004, Kerry lost both areas, however. Democrats such as Senator Tim Kaine (D) have done well here too while the African American population turned out strongly for President Obama.

For Dems:
Herring needs to win Suffolk and come within 1-2 points in Chesapeake. Republicans may overperform here a little bit because McAuliffe does not have the same appeal among African American voters that President Obama did which caused them to turnout in high numbers for him and therefore help other Dems such as Kaine in 2012. Kaine in 2005 still performed well here despite average African American turnout levels because he was able to win over swing voters here though. This is very doable for Herring because of the Government shutdown which Cuccenelli supported. Government employment is high here so the shutdown is a major issue and with the shutdown ending less than a month before the election, this issue hurts Republicans.

Richmond:
The Richmond metropolitan area appears similar to the Hampton Roads demographically at first with a large African American population but many of the white voters here are more upscale and not associated with the military. In 2008 and 2012, President Obama overperformed here due to the high African American turnout which will not be as high in 2013 but the white voters here are not as socially conservative as rural white voters so it is possible that the swing voters here will break strongly for the Dems.

For Dems:
Henrico County is the bellwether county here, it used to be heavily Republican but African American voters moving in there from Richmond have caused it to become a swing county (and even a few points more Dem in certain elections such as the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections.) Herring needs to win Henrico County, the last Democrat to win statewide and lose Henrico County was Jim Webb in 2006.

Rural Virginia:
Rural Virginia is a large area and while a few parts of it are Democratic (Charlottesville with UVA in Central Virginia, a few counties in Southeast Virginia with high African American populations,) it is primarily Republican. It is trending that way too. For example, Buchannan County in Southwest Virginia voted 66% for Romney but voted for Kerry in 2004. The area is socially conservative so unless McAuliffe decimates Cuccinelli, Buchannan County should stay Republican. The white voters in rural Virginia are mostly conservative and in southwest Virginia (this area is demographically similar to West Virginia with working class white voters who are trending Republican,) are becoming more Republican. This area one could say has more in common with Alabama than with Fairfax County.

For Dems: Rural Virginia is the Republican base so Democrats should not expect to carry it unless McAuliffe has a large double digit win. The bellwether county for Herring is Montgomery County where Virginia Tech is located. Montgomery County is in Southwest Virginia but the college voters in Virginia Tech have helped the county become a swing county.

Overall, while watching the election results, here are a few tips to keep in mind while watching for the Attorney General race.
1. Is McAuliffe winning by extremely high single digits or double digits? If so, this is good news for Herring.
2. Is Herring performing well in Loudon County? While Loudon County normally is a bellwether, Herring needs to overperform there because it is his home and he will receive a regional bounce.
3. Is Herring winning Henrico County? If he is, it means that the African American turnout is high and he is winning over enough Richmond area white voters.

Keep these in mind in order to determine who the next Attorney General of Virginia will be.

Leticia Perez and SD-16 Election Night Guide

On May 21st, 2013, the voters of California's SD-16 (a State Senate District spanning Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern Counties,) voted in a special election for State Senate. This election is pivotal for the Democrats in order to maintain their 2/3rd majority there which allows them to pass legislation more easily. The previous State Senator, Michael Rubio (D) had retired in order to accept a lobbying position at Chevron. Rubio recently came under fire from Democratic pundits for not challenging former State Sen. David Valadao (R) in a race for California's 21st Congressional district which covered much of Rubio's district. Valadao went on to win with 58% of the vote, despite President Obama winning 54% in the same district. Rubio now may cause the Republicans to win another seat, this time his State Senate district.

The SD-16 race so far has been very close. The Democrats nominated Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez (D) whose campaign platform is increasing the minimum wage and supporting the high speed rail project (the high speed rail project is a very contentious issue in the Central Valley with some voters supporting it due to job creation and others opposing it saying it is a waste of tax dollars.) The Republicans have nominated Andy Vidak (R), a rancher from Kings County who ran against Rep. Jim Costa (D) in 2010 under similar district lines and nearly beat Costa. This race is drawing attention, $400,000 was spent on TV ads between June 9th and July 6th and experts predict that $4.5 million will be spent on the race. Even though President Obama won 58% of the vote in 2008 in this district, Vidak nearly won the primary, winning 49.8% of the vote on May 21st, 2013. This primary featured candidates from all parties and if no candidate received 50% of the vote or more, there would be a July 23rd runoff. Vidak at first seemed to have won with 51.9% of the vote on the morning after election day but after late provisional ballots were counted, his vote percentage dropped to 49.8%. Perez received about 43% of the vote but the rest of the votes that Perez and Vidak did not win went to Democrats so hopefully Perez can win over those voters. This post though will feature a description of the district and show the county baselines for Perez.

I previously wrote a similar post focusing more on turnout in SD-16 and why Leticia Perez should not concede. It was written just after the May 21st primary. It can be found here: 

map of SD-16:

President Obama's 2008 numbers in SD-16: 

Supervisor Perez's numbers in the 2013 primary: 

Fresno County:
The Fresno County part of this district is heavily Hispanic. It excludes the more conservative areas such as Clovis and contains inner city Fresno and some farming areas in the western part of the county, including the area along the I-5 with the "Congress created the dust bowl" signs. Even though the sign owners may be Republicans, the large majority of the population in this part of the district are Democratic leaning Hispanics. Many of them however are migrant workers who do not have a permanent residence and even more may be undocumented. This part of the district will be helped by the high speed rail which will be built through Fresno and create jobs there. Jobs are an important issue here for voters who were hurt by the 2008 foreclosure crisis. This area usually votes Democratic (President Obama won around 66% of the vote here in 2008,) but can Perez motivate enough Democrats in this district, especially Hispanic ones to turn out in this off year special election?

Kings County: 
Kings County is 50% Hispanic but that number should not fool anyone, it is a heavily Republican area, voting 57% for Romney in 2012. Kings County is also Vidak's home county. The main city here is Hanford and the main industry is farming (prisons also have a presence here too.) Ranching and farming is also large here but the turnout among Hispanic voters is low, allowing the white voters who generally vote 70%+ Republican in this district to cast the large majority of votes. Many argue this district is culturally closer to Texas than Los Angeles, despite being around 2.5 hours from Los Angeles and much farther from Texas. Despite having lower turnout in 2008 than the Kern County part of SD-16, Kings County had higher turnout in the 2013 primary which hurt Perez, especially since Kings County voted 74% for Vidak.

Tulare County: 
Tulare County is similar to Kings County demographically and economically. SD-16 only represents part of Tulare County and that part of Tulare County voted for President Obama in 2008 with 53% of the vote. Vidak won 59% of the vote in that portion though, mainly due to lower Hispanic turnout (this portion of Tulare County represents rural areas with large populations of Hispanic farm workers.) This district also excludes the major urban areas in Tulare County such as Visalia.

Kern County: 
Perez needs to perform extremely well here in order to win. Although Kern County as a whole voted 57% for Romney, this part of Kern County is heavily Democratic and contains heavily Hispanic areas such as Delano and eastern Bakersfield. Delano was the former headquarters for Cesar Chavez and like other towns in the district such as Wasco, has a large agricultural presence. Perez actually underperformed President Obama the least here, he won about 65% of the vote in 2008 in this part of SD-16 and she won about 60%. The reason is that this is her home area. Many volunteers from Los Angeles were working hard in the district last weekend (I helped volunteer with a group last April in Bakersfield and noticed that the minimum wage platform was very helpful with the voters I talked to,) so hopefully they can help Perez win big here.

Here are the benchmarks from each county for Perez to win with about 51%, assuming turnout rates are similar to the primary. To calculate the benchmarks, I relied on the results from the May 21st primary.

Fresno: Perez 59-41
Kern: Perez 66-34
Kings: Perez 27-73
Tulare: Perez 42-58

Turnout: 
The Central Valley has a long history of having low Democratic turnout in non Presidential elections. The 2010 midterms had low turnout where Rep. Jim Costa (D) nearly lost his seat which voted 59% for President Obama. Jerry Brown also won 42% of the vote in Fresno County, despite voting 50% for President Obama in 2012. Brown also faced Whitman who was unpopular with most Hispanics due to the housekeeper issue. Another turnout fact about the Central Valley is that many provisional ballots are counted after election day and these ballots tend to favor Democrats (for example, Costa won 54.6% by election day morning but that increased to 57.9% once the provisional ballots were counted. Ballots counted after election day also include absentee ballots dropped off at polling places on election day.) Costa also appeared to have lost in 2010 until the provisional reported and gave him a win. In 2012, President Obama lost Fresno by 2% before the provisionals were counted and won by 2% when they were counted. The example that applies to this race is the May 21st primary where Vidak won with 51.9% of the vote and Perez conceded but the provisional ballots reduced Vidak's percentage to 49.8%. If Vidak does not receive more than 52% of the vote by the morning of Wednesday, July 24th, then expect a long wait until all the votes are counted.

Final Questions: 

Overall, on election night, keep three questions while watching the returns: 1. Is Fresno County voting strongly for Perez the same way Kern County probably will? 2. Is Kings County having higher or lower turnout than Kern County which had higher turnout in 2008 but lower turnout in the 2013 primary? 3. If Vidak is ahead by Wednesday morning, did he win less than 52% of the vote so the provisionals can make up the ground? Keep these questions in mind to find out who will control this crucial seat for the 2/3rd majority in the California State Senate.

*Disclaimer: while I volunteered for this race last April, the views espoused in this article do not express the views of Supervisor Perez's campaign. This article espouses my views only.

Leticia Perez and Democratic Turnout in Senate District 16

On May 21st, the voters of California's 16th Senate District nearly voted to elect a Republican even though President Obama won the district handily in 2012. This district is a 71% Hispanic district representing all of Kings County and heavily Hispanic parts of Fresno, Tulare and Kern Counties. This was a special election for the seat that State Sen. Michael Rubio (D) vacated in order to serve as a lobbyist for Chevron. The rules for this special election are that all candidates will run in an all party primary and if no candidate receives the 50.1% majority or more, there will be a runoff on July 23rd. The main Democratic candidate is Leticia Perez (D), a young Kern County Supervisor and the Republican candidate is Andy Vidak (R), the 2010 candidate for the 20th Congressional district representing parts of Fresno, Kings and Kern Counties. Perez campaigned on the high speed rail, raising the minimum wage to $9 and not raising taxes on working families. The CA Democratic Party also encouraged Democratic organizations (including the USC Democrats which I am a proud member of,) to campaign for Perez. Despite the hard work, Perez fell short on election night with Vidak winning 51.9% on the morning of May 22nd. Provisional ballots are being counted and have brought Vidak's numbers down to 49.8% and Perez's up from 41% to 43.8% (the other 8% went to less advertised Democratic candidates.) The race will now probably go to a July 23rd runoff because no candidate won 50.1% of the vote or more. There are almost no ballots in Fresno and Kern Counties but there are 135 left in Kings County and 170 left in Tulare County. Vidak needs to get a 211 vote margin from these 305 votes which means 85% of the remaining ballots must break for him which is unlikely. Many Republicans however are touting Vidak's numbers as a resurgence for Republicans in California and evidence that Republican candidates can win Hispanics. No exit polls were conducted on this race but this race should be seen not as a sign of Republican resurgence in California or with Hispanics. This race should be seen as a sign of low turnout especially with Hispanic voters which is typical in off year California elections, especially in the Central Valley.

(map of the 2014 version of the State Senate district, mpi maps.) 

(note: while I am a member of the USC Democrats and campaigned for Leticia Perez, the views espoused in this article do not represent the views of the Perez campaign, the CA Democratic Party or the USC Democrats. This article only represents my opinion.)

Turnout: 

In 2010, turnout in this area was low. The Democratic base in this district is Hispanics and the white voters in this district are mostly Republicans. Rep. Jim Costa (D) who represented the 20th Congressional district which overlaps much of the 16th State Senate district barely won in 2010, winning 51% of the vote. The reason is probably low turnout. Many of the Hispanics counted here in the 2010 census may be undocumented residents who cannot vote or documented residents who are not citizens yet and cannot vote. Also, some may be migrant farmworkers who do not have a permanent residence and travel around the valley depending on the harvest. The 2012 June primary is a bigger example of low turnout. Dianne Feinstein (D) only won 49% of the vote in the primary statewide. While she slightly underperformed in the Bay Area, she performed poorly in Los Angeles and other heavily Hispanic areas. She won 62% of the vote statewide in November and performed well in heavily Hispanic areas so Feinstein's problem was not that Hispanics preferred her opponent, it was that many of them were not voting. Therefore, it appears that Hispanics in these off year elections, especially special elections and primaries, have lower turnout rates. 

Turnout rates: 

Here are the turnout rates by county for each candidate compared with the 2008 Presidential election totals (2012 results are not available.) 

Senate District 16

               Obama  McCain

Fresno    50,332   25,618 

Kern      26,400    13,955 

Kings     14,747    19,710

Tulare     9,389     8,166
Totals     100,868  67,449

Percent 58.3% 39.8%  

Source:

            Perez     Vidak

Fresno 13,336   10,997

Kern    8,563     5,215

Kings   3,286     11,104

Tulare  2,079     3,677

Total:   27,264   30,993
Percent  43.8%     49.8%
Source: 

As shown, while Kern County had higher turnout than Kings County in 2012, it was the opposite in the State Senate election where Kings County had higher turnout. The Kern County portion of the 16th district is heavily Hispanic, and contains east Bakersfield which is heavily Hispanic. Kings County is roughly split between Hispanics and Whites but most of the Kings County Hispanics do not vote, either due to being below 18, not having permanent residence and not having citizenship. Therefore, Kings County is extremely Republican (and it is Vidak's home base.) Even President Obama in 2012 only won 40% of the vote there.

The Republicans' main response to this argument is CA-21 where David Valadao (R) won a 54% Obama district in 2012 with 58% of the vote. For CA-21, it has similar lines to SD-16. The reason for Valadao's win is not that Hispanics in the valley are trending Republican, it is that Valadao faced a poor Democratic candidate. John Hernandez (D), Valadao's challenger was poorly funded (the DCCC's preferred candidate Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong (D) lost in the June 2012 primary,) and ran a poor campaign. For example, he spelled Karl Rove as "Carl Rove" in one of his ads. Democrats should nominate a candidate such as Perez for this seat and then they can win. Perez has a solid base in Kern County as a Supervisor, she can raise money and she is very likable. She needs to run in 2014 or 2016 though when Hispanic turnout will be higher than in the special election.

Overall, as of Sunday, May 26th, the provisional ballots are being counted and the counting will finish on Friday May 31st. Vidak currently has 49.8% of the vote and it is surprising that the pundits did not see his 51.9% lead from the morning of Wednesday May 22nd declining because provisional ballots favor Democrats in California and make a difference in close races. In 2010, CA Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) was behind and her opponent declared victory but when the provisional ballots finished reporting, she won. Even more importantly, Costa in 2010 was behind but won when all the provisional ballots reported. Even in 2012 the provisional ballots changed results transforming a 2 point Romney lead in Fresno County into a 2 point Obama lead. Perez is ready for the runoff but no matter what happens with this race or the runoff, it should not be an indicator for Republicans that Hispanics are winnable, it should be an indicator to the Democrats that the turnout rates for Hispanics are lower in special elections.