Louisiana County Benchmarks

This post is first in an installment continuing to Election Day looking at competitive Senate/Gubernatorial races and examining the dynamics and county benchmarks in each state.

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is no stranger to competitive races. She has been in the Senate since 1996 but has consistently faced close elections. She won by a few points in 1996, back when Louisiana voted Democratic at both a federal and statewide level. In 2002 however, she did not get 50% in the first election and due to Louisiana's jungle primary rules (all candidates regardless of party run in a primary on Election Day and if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, there is a runoff in December). Most polls show her opponent Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) from Baton Rouge with a slight lead but turnout in Louisiana is unpredictable in runoffs so it could easily shift.

These percentages show the percentage that Landrieu needs in order to avoid a runoff and in the runoff avoid losing the seat. The vote totals are the 2010 vote totals in the Vitter/Melancon race and turnout was uniformly increased by 10%. The results were calculated using the Landrieu 2008 results (to factor in regional strengths that Landrieu has including in the New Orleans suburbs and Cajun counties in southern Louisiana) and the 2012 Presidential results (to show how current political trends have affected Louisiana voting patterns).

Here is a map of the benchmarks:

Dark Blue = Landrieu 55%+
Light Blue = Landrieu 50%-54%
Light Red = Landrieu 45%-49%
Dark Red = Landrieu 44%-

New Orleans Metropolitan Area:
This area is the most Democratic part of Louisiana. New Orleans is the major Democratic area while the suburban Parishes St. Tammany and Jefferson are strongly Republican in national elections. St. Tammany frequently votes Republican in statewide elections too, it has a strong evangelical population and is fast growing. Jefferson County is more of a swing county in close statewide elections. Landrieu won it in 2008. It has a large African American population and the white voters are not as uniformly Republican as they are throughout the rest of the South. The Landrieu family is from the New Orleans family and Landrieu will need to win over enough suburban white voters to win Jefferson County and statewide. The baselines show the importance, if Landrieu loses Jefferson County in the runoff, then she will not be Senator.

Baselines:

Baton Rogue Metropolitan Area:
This is the 2nd most Democratic part of Louisiana. Despite being historically Republican (East Baton Rouge Parish voted Republican in 2003 when Louisiana elected a Democratic Governor,) East Baton Rouge Parish now leans Democratic. There is a large African American population there while the suburbs are evangelical and conservative. The suburban Parishes are Ascension and Livingston. Ascension formerly was a Republican leaning county (Bush in 2000 won it by 10,) but now it is heavily Republican with Romney winning 66% there. Livingston is even more Republican, Romney won more than 80% of the vote there. The problem for Landrieu though is despite Baton Rouge's Democratic trend, Cassidy's base is in Baton Rouge. Landrieu will need a large margin out of East Baton Rouge Parish in order to offset Republican margins from Livingston and Ascension Parishes.

Baselines: (possibly 1-2 points lower because the baselines do not factor in Cassidy)

Southern Louisiana:
There are two divides in rural Louisiana. The northern part of the state has rural southerners similar to Arkansas and Mississippi who vote heavily Republican. The southern part though is different with Catholic French descendants and this area is called the Cajun Country. While in 2012 it voted heavily Republican (Cameron County voted 87% for Romney,) it is open to voting for statewide Democrats, especially Cajun ones. Cameron County in 2008 voted for Landrieu but even if she wins, it is highly unlikely that Cameron County will support her. The Cajun voters kept Louisiana competitive after many southern states started voting Republican but they have trended Republican recently too. Winning coalitions for Democrats years back would be winning enough African Americans and Cajuns. Landrieu's coalition now is more likely to be focused around urban areas instead of the Cajuns but they will still play an influential role. Landrieu's family has strong ties to Louisiana and the Cajuns which will help her.

Baselines:

Northern Louisiana:
"The further north you go the further south you get" is what they say about Florida, they meant the same about Louisiana. The northern part of Louisiana is the most culturally southern part with few Cajuns and mostly evangelical Protestants. The politics here are closer to Mississippi than they are to the rest of Louisiana. Former Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) won here after voters did not want to support Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) due to his race but Landrieu and Cassidy are both white. The opening for Landrieu here though is in Caddo Parish (Sherveport) which is trending Democratic and turning out the African American voters in the counties surrounding it. The voting here is extremely racially polarized but Landrieu has traditionally made inroads in the counties around Sherveport (except Bossier which is heavily Republican) so she must win those. Also, Concordia Parish is a good Parish to watch as the bellwether.

Baselines:

So when you are watching Louisiana on election night, watch Jefferson Parish (Landrieu may overperform the baselines there because it is trending Democratic,) is East Baton Rouge offsetting Republican margins in Ascension and Livingston Parishes, is Landrieu keeping Republican margins low in Republican leaning southern Louisiana Parishes such as St. Martin and Calcaiseu and most importantly, is she hitting 50% in Jefferson and Concordia Parishes?

Below is the full baseline list:

Outlook for 2014 Senate Races

After an amazing 2012 election, it is already time to start previewing the 2014 Senate races. I have not posted many posts analyzing the 2012 election results yet because I like to wait until all the votes are tallied. In 2014 though, Democrats face a tough map. Like 2012, the majority of the seats up for reelection are held by Democrats and like 2012, some of those Democrats such as Kent Conrad (D) ND and Claire McCaskill (D)-MO, represented Republican leaning states which turned out strongly for Romney. In the beginning of 2011, most pundits were expecting a Republican takeover of the Senate. However, Republican candidate implosions (such as Todd Akin's,) and stronger than expected Democratic candidates (such as Heidi Heitkamp,) allowed the Democrats to retain the Senate and even gain two seats. Another point that compares this election to the 2004 election is that in 2004, Republicans gained seats across the South to create a string of red seats from Oklahoma to North Carolina which helped the Republicans have 55 seats. In 2012 though, Democrats have a string of seats across the North from Massachusetts to Montana which helped give them 55 seats.

Anyway, it is possible Democrats could surprise conventional wisdom and protect their seats in 2014 but it is a harder task than it was in 2012. In 2008, Democrats swept almost all of the competitive races so the 13 seats that Republicans do have up (the Democrats have 20,) are mostly in solidly Republican states such as Wyoming, Alabama and Kansas where Democrats are not going to win. The only opportunity for the Democrats is in Maine where moderate Susan Collins (R) could decide to retire. Another possibility is Georgia with Saxby Chambliss (R) where Democrats came within three points of unseating him in 2008. That year though, there was high African American turnout which is unlikely in 2014. Still, Georgia is having an influx of African Americans and Hispanics and Romney won by 7 points in 2014 when most observers predicted a 10-12 point victory. I am not going to predict Georgia as competitive just yet but if Democrats find a strong candidate to challenge Chambliss, that race could become interesting. As for the Republicans, they have a large range of seats they can win in such as Alaska, Arkansas North Carolina, South Dakota, Minnesota, West Virginia They need to gain six seats though and Democrats seem favored to prevent that. They have a disadvantage in South Dakota but in states such as Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina, Democrats may be unpopular nationally but the Senate candidates are popular statewide. Anyway, italicized names are potential retirement and here are the ratings:

My ratings standards:

Safe: the incumbent party will win easily, either the incumbent is too popular, the state is too blue or red and there is no potential candidate who can cross the party lines.

Likely: the incumbent party is heavily favored but retirement and/or the right candidate can make a competitive race.

Lean: this race is competitive now but one party is slightly favored.

Tossup: this race is too close to call

Dark blue =Safe Democratic

Blue=Likely Democratic

Light blue=Lean Democratic

Purple=Tossup

Red=Likely Republican

Dark Red=Safe Republican

Safe Democratic

Delaware Chris Coons (D): Republicans had their chance here in 2010 but they blew it by nominating Christine O'Donnell (R) who proved that telling voters "I'm not a witch, I'm you," is not a persuasive argument. Future candidates, please take note.

Illinois Richard Durbin (D): Illinois may have an unpopular Democratic Governor but the Majority Whip Durbin should have no trouble winning reelection here.

New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D): Lautenberg will be 90 in 2014 so he may retire and if he does, the seat should remain in Democratic hands unless Gov. Chris Christie (R) decides to run which is extremely unlikely because he will be preparing for the 2016 Presidential race.

Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D): Merkley's approval ratings are strong enough at 50/41 but a recent PPP poll shows Merkley with a 4 and 5 point leads over Rep. Greg Walden (R) and former Sen. Gordon Smith (R). While Walden and Smith can run a competitive race, Walden is running the NRCC so he is too busy to run for Senate and Smith has expressed no interest in running. The PPP poll tests other Republican candidates too but Merkley leads all of them by 17+ points. Oregon normally would be at Likely D seeing how Republicans have run close statewide races in 2008 and 2010 but since Merkley has no real opposition, the race is at Safe D.

Rhode Island Jack Reed (D): Republicans have no game in Rhode Island, one of the five most Democratic states. The only danger sign for Reed is if Gov. Lincoln Chaffee (I) ran but due to Chaffee's low approval ratings (at least for now because Governor's approval ratings change faster than Romney's platform does,) I expect Reed to win easily.

Likely Democratic

Colorado Mark Udall (D): Colorado has been trending toward the Democrats recently. In 2010, Democrats retained a Senate seat they were expected to lose and in 2012, Obama won Colorado by 5 points even though pundits said it would be a nailbiter (Colorado's margin was only two points behind Georgia's 7 point Romney margin and no pundit called Georgia a target state,) and Democrats won the legislature. Also, Udall leads by 7 points against a Generic Republican according to a PPP poll on November 4th. A potential Republican candidate is Rep. Cory Gardner (R). However, these Colorado Republican House members do not do well in statewide races. For example, Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) lost in the 2006 gubernatorial race, Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) lost in the 2008 Senatorial race and Rep. Scott McInnis (R) lost in the 2010 gubernatorial primary. I am not a big fan of Colorado's Republican bench and I do not see Udall losing since Republican have not won a Senatorial race in Colorado since 2002.

Iowa Tom Harkin (D): Iowa is well known as a swing state but Harkin has been a Senator since 1984 and will be 74 years old on Election Day in 2014. He has also been quiet about retirement plans but many Senators serve well into their 70s and 80s (hello Frank Lautenberg, Daniel Inouye, Dianne Feinstein etc.) Harkin should be able to fend off Republican challenges due to his popularity but if he retires, expect this race to move to tossup immediately. Potential Republican candidates include conservative firebrand Rep. Steve King (R), popular Rep. Tom Latham (R) and Gov. Terry Bransted (R). Potential Democratic candidates may include Rep. Bruce Braeley (D), Rep. Dave Loesbeck (D) and Christie Vilsack (D), the former Iowa first lady who ran against King in 2012.

Massachusetts John Kerry (D): Kerry is popular enough to win reelection but if he is appointed to Secretary of State by the President, then Massachusetts will have an open Senate seat with a special election. We all remember how the last special election in Massachusetts turned out where Scott Brown (R) shocked everyone by defeating Attorney General Martha Coakley (D). Brown lost his Senate race in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren (D) by 8 points even though Warren may have been too liberal so Brown may be weaker than pundits believe. Democrats have a good list of potential candidates though including Rep. Edward Markey (D), Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and Rep. Edward Capuano who ran in the 2009 Special Election primary. A few pundits mentioned Coakley but she is more interested in running for Governor so many Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief now. Anyway, as long as Kerry stays in the Senate, he should win easily. If it is an open seat though and Brown runs, I am moving this race to Lean Democratic. Markey is a good fundraiser and the other Democrats should beat Brown but they will have to fight a real race. The race will be at Likely Democratic for now though.

Michigan Carl Levin (D): Like Iowa, this is another state with an older Democratic incumbent who should win easily if he runs but would create a competitive race if he retires. Like Harkin, Levin has been quiet about his retirement plans. Republicans have a large bench but it is weaker than it looks (as the 2012 Senate race showed. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) was supposed to be a strong candidate but he ran a racist ad  which ruined his campaign.) Still, Republicans could run Rep. Candice Miller (R) who is a strong fundraiser or Rep. Mike Rogers (R) who is very popular in his swing district. Democrats though could run Rep. Gary Peters (D) but besides that, they do not have a strong bench. Still, Michigan's Democratic lean means this race should lean Democratic if Levin retires.

New Mexico Tom Udall (D): Udall's approval ratings are in the low 50s right now which are good numbers in the blue leaning state of New Mexico. This state used to be a swing state in the early 2000s but has shifted toward the Democrats in the last few years as the Hispanic population shifted toward the Democrats. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) could try at this seat but she lost by 6 points in the 2012 Senate race so she probably would not beat Udall. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) however could run a real challenge against Udall because her approval ratings are high (although they could change quickly because gubernatorial approval ratings are volatile,) but there has been no noise from her about running.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D): New Hampshire is such a bellwether state. It mirrors whichever party does well. For example, it went strongly Democratic in 2006, 2008 and 2012 while the Republicans did well in 2010. Midterms usually favor Republicans but Shaheen may be able to win. Her approval ratings are hovering around 50 and she leads a generic Republican opponent by 10 (the same poll sample showed Gubernatorial candidate Maggie Hassan (D) leading by 4 but Hassan won by 13 so this sample favored Republicans so Shaheen leads a generic Republican by more than 10.) Shaheen may face a challenge from former Sen. John Sunumu (R) but PPP shows Shaheen leading 53%-42% so Shaheen should win reelection as long as the Republican winds do not shift too far to the right.

Virginia: Mark Warner (D): Virginia may be a swing state but Warner is extremely popular here, mostly due to his strong career as Governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. He won the Senate seat in 2008 with 65% of the vote against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). In Virginia, the Governors have always run for Senate (Charles Robb (D), George Allen (R), Mark Warner (D) and Tim Kaine (D)) and it may happen again because Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) is term limited out so he may challenge Warner. If the Republicans nominate an unknown candidate, I will move this race to 'Safe Democratic' but McDonnell should give Warner a race (although I expect Warner to win.) McDonnell is popular but Warner is more popular.

Lean Democratic:

Arkansas Mark Pryor (D): Pryor faced no Republican opponent in 2008 but he will not be as lucky in 2014. In 2008, Arkansas's congressional delegation was 3-1 Democratic and Democrats controlled the Legislature. In 2012, Republicans control the congressional delegation 4-0 and the Legislature. Rep. Tim Griffin (R), announced he will not run, helping Pryor because Griffin would have been a formidable foe. Still, Reps. Tom Cotton (R) and Steve Womack (R) are potential candidates. In 2010, Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) lost and Republicans hope Pryor will follow her path. Pryor though is more popular than Lincoln and is from a strong political family. He has been moderate but did not anger the base the way Lincoln did. No polls have been released so it is difficult to assess the race but Pryor seems to have an edge.

Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D): Why am I placing Landrieu's seat in the Lean Democratic category despite Louisiana’s strong Republican bent? The reason is that Landrieu has become entrenched after representing Louisiana since 1996 and her political family is popular (her father Moon Landrieu (D) was Governor and her brother Mitch Landrieu (D) is mayor of New Orleans.) She also is popular in the New Orleans metropolitan area and can make inroads in the conservative New Orleans suburbs. Potential Republican candidates include Reps. Charles Boustany (R), Bill Cassidy (R) and John Fleming (R) (one of Fleming's aides said Fleming is interested.) Although the Republicans have many potential candidates, none of them have the star power needed to beat Landrieu but they should run a close race. Also, Louisiana has jungle primaries were candidates of all parties are on the same ballot and if no one receives 50% or more, they have another election between the top two in a month.

Minnesota: Al Franken (D): Franken's approval ratings are at 47/39 and 48%-42% against a generic Republican according to a recent PPP poll so Franken has more supporters than opponents but not by a large margin. Franken probably will win, especially if Michelle Bachmann (R) decides to challenge him. It is possible former Senator Norm Coleman (R) will run after losing in 2008 but he has been quiet about the race and Minnesota Republicans think he is more likely to run for Governor. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) stated he will not run but two strong potential candidates include Reps. John Kline (R) and Erik Paulsen (R). Neither Paulsen nor Kline have said they will not run but neither of them said they will. Paulsen could be the Mark Kirk of Minnesota because of his popularity in a swing district and his appeal to moderates (although his voting record is conservative.) Still, I expect Franken to win but it could be close.

Montana Max Baucus (D): Baucus has been a Senator from Montana since 1978 but he may face a tough race in 2014 even though he has fallen below 55% of the vote only once since his 1974 House election. His popularity sank because of the healthcare controversy and he has a 41/44 approval rating. He also leads a generic Republican 45/42 which means Republicans have a chance to beat Baucus but their bench is weak. Republicans ran their strongest candidate former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) who lost the 2012 Senate race by 4. Democrats also won all statewide offices except Attorney General in 2012. Also, the influx of Democrats from California and other west coast states is helping Montana become less red. Possible Republican candidates include Attorney General Tim Fox (R), U.S. House Freshman Steve Daines (R) (although he may not be inclined to run after freshman Rick Berg (R) ran for Senate in ND and lost,) and Rehberg (Rehberg challenged Baucus in 1996 and lost though.) Another possibility is a primary challenge from former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) because Schweitzer has not quashed any rumors about running although he may be more interested in higher office. Overall, Baucus's low approval ratings put this race at Lean Democratic but the weak Republican bench prevents it from reaching tossup. Republicans also usually underestimate how Montana ticketsplits for Republican Presidential candidates and Democratic statewide candidates. Republicans have not won a single Gubernatorial or Senatorial contest since 2000.

Tossup

Alaska Mark Begich (D): If anyone is encouraged by Alaska's swing toward Obama (it was one of the five states where Obama performed better in 2012 than in 2008. He lost by 13 points in 2012 instead of by 20 in 2008,) Begich should be happy. In 2008, he barely won against Sen. Ted Stevens (R) who was extremely corrupt and represented Alaska since the 1960s. Begich has kept a moderate profile and will certainly be hard to beat. The Republicans though are already lining up to challenge him including Gov. Sean Parnell (R) and 2010 Senate candidate Joe Miller (R). Democrats should hope Miller gets the nomination because he is a far right conservative who might go the road of Todd Akin (R), Richard Mourdock (R) and Sharron Angle (R). Parnell though is a saner Republican so he would be harder to beat.

North Carolina Kay Hagan (D): The North Carolina Democratic Party took a beating recently with Republicans seizing control of the Governorship and State Legislature. Even Obama could not win North Carolina despite high turnout in the Democratic areas. In 2014, Democratic turnout will be lower but Hagan could make up for it with crossover support in rural eastern North Carolina (many white voters there support Democrats in statewide races.) Also, she has announced she will run.  Republicans though have a large bench of Congressmen looking to move up in the Senate.

South Dakota Tim Johnson (D): Johnson is no stranger to tough races. He faced two close elections in 1996 and 2002 and emerged successfully. His opponent though is popular former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) who recently announced his candidacy so Johnson faces a tough race. There were speculations he would retire but his statement suggests Johnson plans to stay in the race. If Johnson retires, Democrats could recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) to run. Although Rounds is popular, he is very conservative and in 2006 signed a bill banning abortion, even in cases of rape. Voters had other ideas and overturned the bill 44%-56%. Johnson may run ads comparing Rounds's abortion positions with Akin's and Mourdock's. Also, Johnson needs to turn out the Native American voters because in 2002, they provided his winning margin. Overall, although South Dakota is a Republican state, the Dakotas will ticket split for Senate races as shown with Heidi Heitkamp's win in North Dakota so Johnson has a strong shot. I think Democrats are overreacting a bit here, Johnson probably will win although it could be close. If it is a Republican wave year, Republicans should win this though.

West Virginia Jay Rockefeller (D): Rep. Shelley Moore Captio (R) announced her candidacy for Senate. Rockefeller has served since 1984, has more than enough money but pundits say he is too liberal for West Virginia. I believe he is an institution in West Virginia but he needs to prepare for a tough race and he is in his mid 70s. However, Capito is moderate which helps her in the general election but since she is pro choice and West Virginia is a socially conservative state, I expect she will receive a challenge from the right such as 2010 and 2012 Senate candidate John Raese (R). Unless the tea party movement shrinks, a right wing challenger should be able to knock her off because I do not see how a socially conservative state such as West Virginia can nominate a pro choice Republican. As for Rockefeller's plans, he may decide to retire and has been quiet about his plans. If he does retire, Democrats could nominate former Sen. Carte Goodwin (D) or Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) for the seat. Overall, I think Capito is overhyped because she will get attacked by the right and it will be hard to beat Rockefeller because West Virginia still supports Democrats for statewide offices (and Rockefeller can self-fund.) Also, Capito probably announced early because she was worried about a conservative primary challenge and wanted to clear the field.

Likely Republican:

Georgia Saxby Chambliss: Although Chambliss seems safe enough from Democrats (he won in 2008 despite the high African American turnout,) Chambliss may not be safe enough from a Republican challenge on the right. The teabaggers may run a candidate because Chambliss may not follow the Norquist pledge. Potential candidates include 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel (R), Rep. Tom Price (R), conservative editor of RedState Erick Erickson (R) and former Presidential candidate Herman Cain (R). A PPP poll showed Chambliss leads all challengers except Cain and 43%-38% of Republicans wanted a more conservative nominee. If Chambliss loses the primary, Democrats have a shot because if the Republican candidate is too extreme, Democrats could win the way they did in Indiana and Missouri. A potential candidate is Atlanta mayor Kasim Reed (D). Price leads by only 5 in the PPP poll against Reed so Reed could make it close (but Chambliss leads Reed by 15.) The Gubernatorial polling numbers are more favorable for Democrats though so Reed may run there.

Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R): Democrats would love to defeat the Minority Leader of the Senate and the Minority Leader of Americans who's first priority is to make Obama a one term President. McConnell may receive a challenge on the right but no candidate has emerged. For the Democrats though, actress and Kentucky native Ashley Judd (D) may run for the seat. She is well known, can attract national attention to this race and can raise money. Kentuckians though are not a fan of Hollywood Stars running for office (as shown in 2004 when George Clooney's Father Nick Clooney (D) ran for U.S. House and lost after Republicans tied him to Hollywood.) Still, Judd has real Kentucky roots and will be able to compete with McConnell on the airwaves (and a recent PPP poll shows her within four points of McConnell.)  Also, Kentucky has a tendency to support Democrats in statewide races, as shown when Democrats swept all but one statewide office in 2011. If she decides to run, this race will automatically move to Lean Republican but since Judd has not officially announced, this race remains at Likely Republican. Democrats control all but one statewide office in Kentucky but no candidate there has stepped forward to challenge McConnell.

Maine Susan Collins (R): Collins is very popular in Maine. In 2008, she won 62%-38% against a strong candidate, Rep. Tom Allen (D) so Collins should probably win again and PPP's early November poll gave Collins a 65% approval rating. If Collins decides to run, she will win. If she retires though, Democrats have a great chance to win and I will immediately move the race to Lean Democratic. Potential Democratic candidates include Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) and Rep. Michael McAuland (D). Pingree should be a strong candidate due to her popularity. Also, Collins may get a primary challenge from the right due to her moderate views. Although conventional wisdom says Maine is a moderate state, it does have its conservatives (Maine elected the unpopular teabagger Governor Paul LePage (R). 2012 Senate candidate Charlie Summers (R) is a potential primary challenger.

South Carolina A: Lindsay Graham (R): Graham has been shifting right lately because he is worried about a primary challenge. Even if Graham loses though, the seat should stay Republican because Democrats have a weak bench in South Carolina. Their only strong candidate is State Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) but he seems more likely to run for Governor and leads Gov. Nikki Haley (R). Also, Graham receives 51% of the vote against a more conservative challenger but if he moderates himself on the fiscal cliff issue, expect the number to go south for him. 

Safe Republican

Alabama Jeff Sessions (R): Alabama has not elected a Democratic Senator in who knows how long. Anyway, Alabama is not unseating Sen. Sessions.

Idaho Jim Risch (R): As long as Risch does not follow the footsteps of former Idaho Senator Larry Craig (R), Risch should win reelection easily.

Kansas Pat Roberts (R): Even if former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) ran here, Roberts should hold this seat easily. Sebelius lost her popularity in the Obama Administration.

Mississippi Thad Cochran (R): Should be an easy hold for Republicans. 

Nebraska Mike Johannes (R): Nebraska is looking pretty safe for Republicans here. Not even former Gov. Bob Kerrey (D) could make a close race for Senate in 2012.

Oklahoma James Inhofe (R): Oklahoma is one of the five reddest states so Inhofe should have no trouble winning reelection. He may retire though because he will be 80 in 2014. If he does, Democrats should persuade Paul Ryan's wife's cousin former Rep. Dan Boren (D) or former Gov. Brad Henry (D) to run. Boren previously represented the 2nd district in eastern Oklahoma and won reelection with double digit margins, even in 2010. Henry was very popular as Governor however Oklahoma has been trending away from the Democratic Party quickly so Henry or Boren may run a slightly competitive race but should not win.

Safe Republican if Inhofe runs, Likely Republican if Boren or Henry runs +Inhofe retirement.

South Carolina B: Open Jim DeMint (R): DeMint resigned to work for the Heritage Foundation. There is no strong Democratic candidate waiting to run for office though (unless Stephen Colbert decides to run as a Democrat.) Republicans should hold this. 

Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R): It was only 2006 that Democrats controlled the Governorship, five House seats and came within three points of winning a Senate seat. Those days are long gone now; Tennessee is a solidly Republican state. Democrats control two House seats and won 30% in the 2012 Senate race.

Texas John Cornyn (R): Texas is trending Democratic but Cornyn should have no trouble winning. 

Wyoming Michael Enzi (R): Assuming former Gov. Dave Freudental (D) does not run here, Enzi should have an easy race.

Senate Ratings: My Last Ratings This Cycle

These are my last Senate race ratings before election day. I have really enjoyed writing these ratings and I cannot wait to get start writing up Senate ratings for the 2014 midterm cycle. Here are my previous Senate ratings this cycle: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/10/senate-ratings-democrats-likely-to-keep.html

In the 2011 cycle, conventional wisdom suggested that Republicans would gain control of the Senate, mainly because of opportunities in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Missouri and Virginia. However, indications are suggesting that Republicans have a 50% chance of actually losing seats. Democrats have surged in states such as Virginia and Massachusetts where Nate Silver has given the Democrats a greater than 80% chance of winning. Also, Missouri and Indiana originally resembled Republican wins but the Republican candidates Todd Akin (R) and Richard Mourdock (R) hurt their chances with offensive comments about rape. Republicans still hope they can gain seats in the high prairies in NE, MT and ND. Although they have a shot in NE, MT and ND are both close races where likeable Democrats face not so likeable Republicans in states where personality is important. Anyway, here are my ratings. By the way, I have removed the tossup column because I believe by now, Senate seats should shift one way or the other (even though in a few states, specifically AZ, MT, NV, and ND, it was particularly difficult to make a decision.) 

On another note, I am not including writeups on most Safe and Likely seats, they can be found here though: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/senate-rankings-september-2012.html

Dark blue = Safe Democratic
Blue =Likely Democratic
Light Blue = Lean Democratic
Very Light Blue=Tilt Democratic
Light Red=Tilt Republican
Red=Lean Republican
Dark Red/Brown=Safe Republican
Dark Green = Safe Independent
Green =Likely Independent
Gray= no election

Projected Senate turnover: Democrats +2
Republicans gain two: NE, ND
Democrats gain four: IN, MA, ME, NV

Safe Democratic (10 seats) CA, DE, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NY, RI, WA, WV

Likely Democratic (5 seats) FL, HI, NM, OH, PA

Lean Democratic (4 seats) CT, MA, MO, VA

Tilt Democratic (4 seats) IN, MT, NV, WI

Tilt Republican (2 seats) AZ, ND

Lean Republican (1 seat) NE

Likely Republican (0 seats)

Safe Republican (5 seats) MS, TN, TX, UT, WY

Safe Independent (1 seat) VT

Likely Independent (1 seat) ME


Seat changes favoring Democrats
IN-Tossup-Tilt D
NE Likely R-Lean R
NV-Tossup-Tilt D
VA-Tossup-Lean D

Seat changes favoring Republicans: 
AZ Tossup-Tilt R
ND-Tossup-Tilt R
WI Lean D-Tilt D

Overall, how do Republicans gain a path to a Senate majority? Well, they already have 47 seats and need 4 seats to win a majority, assuming Obama wins reelection and Biden is the tiebreaker. Nebraska is already Lean R and Maine is Likely Independent (Angus King probably will caucus with the Democrats,) so Republicans need to sweep all tilt R and tilt D which includes retaining AZ, IN and NV and picking up WI, ND and MT. That still only gives them +3 so they must win one of the leaning Democratic seats, CT, MA, MO or VA. Democrats have leads in all those states so it makes it difficult for Republicans to make a surprise win and I am 100% certain Republicans cannot sweep all the tilt D and tilt R states. Overall, Republicans have a very difficult path to the Senate majority.

Anyway, here is a more in depth look at the Lean and Tilt seats. 


Lean Democratic (4 seats) 

Connecticut (Open-Joe Lieberman): Rep. Chris Murphy (D) is facing Linda McMahon (R), former WWE CEO who spent around $50 million in the 2010 Senate race (she lost by 11 points) but is running closer in the polls than in 2010. In late August, McMahon was tied in the polls after she sent an ad blitz into Connecticut. Murphy though was boosted after the DSCC spent money to help him. Although September showed a close race, the newer polls are showing around +5 for Murphy, suggesting a similarity with the 2010 race where McMahon ran a close race in September but lost points close to the election. 

Massachusetts (Scott Brown (R)): Brown seemed to be invincible after winning Ted Kennedy's (D) former Senate seat in this heavily Democratic state in a 2010 Special Election until Elizabeth Warren (D), Obama's nominee for the Consumer Protection Bureau decided to run. Warren has been a prolific fundraiser and is one of the top 15 highest fundraisers in Senate history. She also raised $12.4 million in the 3rd Quarter (compared to 7.45 million for Brown) and has performed well in the debates. Brown said his role model was Scalia which plays into Warren's strategy that a vote for Brown is a vote for a Republican to control the Senate. This is Warren's strategy because polls including a PPP one released on October 11th shows that 53%-36% of Massachusetts residents want Democrats to control the Senate. Brown has been running away from the Republican party but Warren has been tying him to the unpopular Republican Congress. Also, Brown probably feels sad he did not accept Super PAC money because Warren is outraising and outspending him. Brown also skipped the last debate. Also, Brown has led in only one poll since mid September. Warren should win this seat. 

Missouri (Claire McCaskill (D)): I was at first very worried about McCaskill's chances here because of Missouri's sharp turn to the right (it was the only swing state in 2008 to support John McCain and it voted Republican for Senate by 13 points in 2010.) Then Republican candidate Todd Akin (R) said his famous legitimate rape comment which turned a 5 point Akin lead into a 5 point McCaskill lead. The NRSC and other Republican groups have come back and spent money here but McCaskill still has a strong advantage here. 

Virginia (Open Jim Webb (D)): This race pits two former Governors against each other, Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). For Kaine to win, he has to perform well in Northern Virginia, winning with 60%+ in Fairfax County and carrying bellwether Loudon County. Also, high African American turnout in the Hampton Roads/Richmond area should help Kaine too. Kaine and Allen are both well known so most voters have chosen a side so the candidates have to focus on turning out their voters. Recently though, Kaine has opened a lead with even Rasmussen showing him leading Allen. I considered placing this seat in Tilt Democratic but after the favorable polling data for Kaine, I am planning on moving it into "Lean Democratic." 


Tilt Democratic (4 seats)


Indiana (Open Richard Lugar (R)):  The Republican Legislature gave Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) a Republican leaning seat after redistricting which urged Donnelly to run for Senate. Mourdock defeated 36 year incumbent Lugar in a primary by claiming Lugar was not conservative enough for Indiana (Democrats may win though because Mourdock may be too conservative for Indiana.) To win, Donnelly needs to convince the voters that is the case. He also needs to perform well in not only Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs but also win a big margin out of St. Joseph County (South Bend,) which is in his district and hit 40%+ in heavily Republican Elkhart County which is also in his district. Polls show many undecided voters are Lugar backers in the Republican primary so Donnelly has been tying himself to Lugar, including mentioning how Lugar and him both backed the auto bailout which saved Indiana jobs. At first, I expected those disaffected Lugar voters to move to Mourdock in the end but after Mourdock's rape comments, a Howey-DePauw poll (they are very reputable in Indiana,) showed Donnelly with an 11 point lead. I expect Donnelly to now win here. 



Montana (Jon Tester (D)): Rep. Danny Rehberg (R) is challenging Tester, a popular incumbent with strong campaign skills (who can forget his haircut ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joQi27QG7Cs) Rehberg however is well known and popular throughout this Republican leaning state, making it more difficult.  Like in 2006, this race could be one of the last Senatorial races decided and the polls reflect a very tight race. What Tester has to do is to win over some Romney voters who are conservative on guns while capitalizing on Obama turnout in the cities. In 2006, Tester won by carrying Native Americans and urban voters. He needs to replicate this to win. Also, Tester should keep margins down in the rural areas by talking about his authenticity as a regular Montanan while portraying Rehberg as a false Montanan. This race should be a nailbiter but I am giving the edge to Tester because even Rasmussen showed a 1 point lead for him and Rehberg seems to be a poor fit for Montana voters. 


Nevada (Dean Heller (R)): This is another chance for a Democratic pickup as Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) from Las Vegas challenges appointed Senator Heller, a former Representative from the northern part of the state.   Recently Berkley is making a wise campaign move by campaigning heavily in Reno because voters there are unfamiliar with her. She does not want to repeat the 2006 gubernatorial race where Dina Titus (D), a Las Vegas centric candidate over performed in Vegas but lost because she underperformed in Reno. Heavy turnout in Las Vegas should help Berkley (early voting in Clark County so far is 47% Dem and 33% Rep,) but unless she can win Clark County by more than 10 points, she needs to make inroads in Heller's base.  Also, Nevada is underpolled in the Democrats favor. There are two reasons for this, the first one is that most polls do not have a Spanish speaking option (and the ones that do such as Mellman which was the only polling firm to predict Reid's 2010 win showed Berkley up 3,) and the 2nd is Nevada's Democratic Party's organization strength. The underpolling made a big difference in 2008 when polls showed Obama leading by 6 but he ended up winning by 12 in Nevada. Also, the Harry Reid organization is working strong for Berkley. This was a tough decision for me but I decided to rank Nevada at Tilt Democratic because of the Democratic organization but I expect a very close race here. 

Wisconsin (Open Herb Kohl (D)): Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) from Madison is running for the seat against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). At first, Republicans thought that this seat would be an easy pickup for them because Thompson is moderate and won reelection with 60%+ as Governor. Conventional wisdom also said Baldwin was too liberal for the state. What conventional wisdom did not say though was that Baldwin would campaign extremely hard throughout August and September while Thompson made only a few campaign appearances due to his "frail health." Baldwin gained a lead in September and was helped when Thompson's son said, "Obama should go back to Kenya," which should hurt the Thompson campaign. However, Thompson has been bouncing back, even leading in a few recent polls although Baldwin still has a slight advantage. 

Tilt Republican (2 seats)

Arizona (Open Jon Kyl (R)): Democrats have a strong candidate, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). He served under George W. Bush and was a registered Independent until recently. He also is campaigning as an Independent frustrated with gridlock and has criticized the Bush Administration which is helping him with Independents. The Republican candidate is Rep. Jeff Flake (R)-Mesa who was leading early this year but polls show a narrowing race. In early October, a few polls showed Carmona leading. No polls were released last week though and the last poll released was a Rasmussen one showing Flake ahead by 6. I am extremely unsure about whether to rank this race Tilt Republican or Tilt Democratic but I decided on Tilt Republican because of how although Hispanics are underpolled here like in Nevada, Arizona lacks the strong Democratic organization of Nevada. This was a tough decision for me and I believe Flake has a <60% chance of winning here. 

North Dakota (Open Kent Conrad (D)): This race resembles the Montana race. It is a primarily rural and Republican leaning state with a moderate likeable Democrat facing a not so popular Republican U.S House member. Many North Dakotans vote for the person, not the party and Berg is not very personally popular which works in Heitkamp's favor. She is very likeable and a news reporter described her as "the person who hugs everyone in the room while Berg is the person in the room who gives talking points about why you should vote for him."  North Dakota really likes personally popular candidates (Kent Conrad won easily because he is personally popular,)  but it is a Presidential year and North Dakota should go for Romney. Berg's new theme though is "you may like Heidi but she likes Obama." I personally believe this race is very close but I will give the edge to Berg for now, noting how the undecideds are Republican leaning voters. Heitkamp still has a strong chance and I expect this race to be 1 point either way. 

Lean Republican (1 seat)

Nebraska (Open Ben Nelson (D)): Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has retired and Democrats found former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), their best candidate to retake this seat. Republicans picked Deb Fischer (R). Kerrey was once very popular in Nebraska but since his Senate retirement, Kerrey has been President of Eugene Lang College in New York City, hurting his Nebraska roots. Kerrey received a recent boost from comedian Steve Martin who endorsed Kerrey and released a strong ad for him here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/05/steve-martin-bob-kerrey_n_1942521.html (Martin also has not endorsed candidates until now.) Former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) endorsed Kerrey too and this momentum has narrowed the race. An Omaha World Herald poll on October 25th showed Fischer with a 3 point lead, down from a 16 point lead in September. Kerrey has narrowed the race but I think it is too late to win (although a win would be a very pleasant surprise.) 

Senate Ratings: Democrats Likely to Keep Senate Majority

In 2010, Democrats lost control of the House but retained control of the Senate. While retaining control though, they lost six seats and have a 53-47 advantage over the Republicans. Therefore, Republicans could gain three Senate seats and win control of the Senate if Romney becomes President because Romney's Vice President will cast the tiebreaking vote. Assuming Obama wins reelection which most polls suggest now, Republicans will need to gain four Senate seats in order to have 51 Senators to bypass Vice President Joe Biden's (D) tiebreaking vote. 

2012 is one of the worst years for Democrats to retain control of the Senate because they have 23 seats up for reelection in 2012 while the Republicans have only 10 (before the Scott Brown (R) win in the special election in Massachusetts, the Democrats would have had 24 seats to defend in 2012.) The Democrats gained six of their Senate seats up for the 2012 election cycle in 2006 when conservatives stayed home because they had depressed enthusiasm due to the Bush Administration's failures with the Iraq War. This is 2012 though where the Republicans are more enthusiastic because of their opposition to Obama. The focus this year is more on the Presidential election too but if Republicans regain control of the Senate, they have a chance to win the Government trifecta. In August, Republicans seemed to have a 50-50 shot at gaining the Senate but their chances fell in three tossup seats. Those seats include Missouri where Todd Akin (R) said his famous rape comments, and Wisconsin where Tammy Baldwin (D) has campaigned more energetically than her opponent Tommy Thompson (R) has. 

On another note, I am not including writeups on most Safe and Likely seats, they can be found here though: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2012/09/senate-rankings-september-2012.html

Dark blue = Safe Democratic
Blue =Likely Democratic
Light Blue = Lean Democratic
Purple=Tossup
Light Red=Lean Republican
Red=Likely Republican
Dark Red/Brown=Safe Republican
Green = Safe Independent
Gray= no election

Seat changes favoring Democrats
AZ-Lean R-Tossup
FL-Lean D-Likely D
MA Tossup-Lean D
MI-Likely D-Safe D
VA-Tossup-Lean D
WI-Tossup-Lean D
Seat changes favoring Republicans: 
PA-Safe D-Likely D (moved because some polls are showing a single digit race.) 

Seat changes not favoring Independents: 
ME Safe I-Likely I

Safe Democratic (11 seats) CA, DE, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA, WV

Likely Democratic (5 seats) FL, HI, NM, OH, PA

Lean Democratic (4 seats) CT, MA, MO, WI

Tossup (6 seats) AZ, IN, NV, MT, ND, VA

Lean Republican (0 seats)

Likely Republican (1 seat) NE

Safe Republican (5 seats) MS, TN, TX, UT, WY

Likely Independent (1 seat) ME


Lean Democratic (4 seats) 

Connecticut (Open-Joe Lieberman): Rep. Chris Murphy (D) is facing Linda McMahon (R), former WWE CEO who spent around $50 million in the 2010 Senate race (she lost by 11 points) but is running closer in the polls than in 2010. In late August, McMahon was tied in the polls after she sent an ad blitz into Connecticut. Murphy though was boosted after the DSCC spent money to help him. The most recent poll, Rasmussen shows him leading by 5 points. If even Rasmussen, a conservative leaning polling firm shows a mid single digit lead for Murphy, it suggests he has escaped danger. Also, McMahon at a recent debate said churches could deny emergency contraception pills to rape victims. In Connecticut which is a strong pro choice state, those comments should be very harmful to her. 

Massachusetts (Scott Brown (R)): Brown seemed to be invincible after winning Ted Kennedy's (D) former Senate seat in this heavily Democratic state in a 2010 Special Election until Elizabeth Warren (D), Obama's nominee for the Consumer Protection Bureau decided to run. Her fundraising has been strong. For Brown to win, he needs to win more than 2/3rds of the Independents because he won in 2010 by winning Independents in the Boston exurbs while underperforming in the college towns and Boston proper (but Obama should increase turnout in those areas and some colleges were not in session in the 2010 Special election.) Warren has been a prolific fundraiser and is one of the top 15 highest fundraisers in Senate history. She also raised $12.4 million in the 3rd Quarter (compared to 7.45 million for Brown) and has performed well in the debates. Brown said his role model was Scalia which plays into Warren's strategy that a vote for Brown is a vote for a Republican to control the Senate. This is Warren's strategy because polls including a PPP one released on October 11th shows that 53%-36% of Massachusetts residents want Democrats to control the Senate. Brown has been running away from the Republican party but Warren has been tying him to the unpopular Republican Congress. Warren's strategy seems to be working though as her leads in the polls are mainly around 5-6 points which is high enough to put the race in the Lean Democratic category. 

Missouri (Claire McCaskill (D)): I was at first very worried about McCaskill's chances here because of Missouri's sharp turn to the right (it was the only swing state in 2008 to support John McCain and it voted Republican for Senate by 13 points in 2010.) Then Republican candidate Todd Akin (R) said his famous legitimate rape comment which turned a 5 point Akin lead into a 5 point McCaskill lead. I was worried that Akin could make up ground after the legitimate rape comments but McCaskill is holding steady and even Rasmussen is showing her ahead by 6 points. Also, McCaskill has 3.5 million CoH while Akin only has 500k CoH. 

Wisconsin (Open Herb Kohl (D)): Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) from Madison is running for the seat against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). At first, Republicans thought that this seat would be an easy pickup for them because Thompson is moderate and won reelection with 60%+ as Governor. Conventional wisdom also said Baldwin was too liberal for the district. What conventional wisdom did not say though was that Baldwin would campaign extremely hard throughout August and September while Thompson made only a few campaign appearances due to his "frail health." This is what happened and Baldwin's hard work has paid off because she has led in all of the nine polls conducted since September 17th (yes, even Rasmussen shows her ahead.) Also, Thompson's son said, "Obama should go back to Kenya," which should hurt the Thompson campaign. Baldwin's fundraising is going strong too, she has 3.5 million CoH compared to Thompson's 2.0 million CoH.


Tossup (6 seats)

Arizona (Open Jon Kyl (R)): Democrats seemed to have found a strong candidate here in former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). He served under George W. Bush and was a registered Independent until recently. He also is campaigning as an Independent frustrated with gridlock and has criticized the Bush Administration which is helping him with Independents. The Republican candidate is Rep. Jeff Flake (R)-Mesa who was leading early this year but the last two polls have shown Carmona ahead by 2 (PPP) and 4 points (Rocky Mountain) respectively. Carmona is also posting big leads among Hispanics, including a 36 point lead in the PPP poll. The Rocky Mountain polling firm is relatively unknown but since they used the words "Democrat Party" in their memo (that's a common phrase Republicans use to describe the Democratic Party,) I assume they are not affiliated with the Democratic Party. What the Rocky Mountain firm does do though is not undersample cellphone only voters and they also sample Spanish speaking voters (who usually vote Democratic.) 

Indiana (Open Richard Lugar (R)):  The Republican Legislature gave Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) a Republican leaning seat after redistricting which urged Donnelly to run for Senate (if Donnelly wins, Republican candidate and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) is not going to be happy with the legislature.) Mourdock defeated 36 year incumbent Lugar in a primary by claiming Lugar was not conservative enough for Indiana (Democrats may win though because Mourdock may be too conservative for Indiana.) To win, Donnelly needs to convince the voters that is the case. He also needs to perform well in not only Indianapolis and the Chicago suburbs but also win a big margin out of St. Joseph County (South Bend,) which is in his district and hit 40%+ in heavily Republican Elkhart County which is also in his district. Donnelly's strong campaign skills (he survived 2010,) and moderate views should help him though. Polls have been showing a slight Mourdock lead but due to the sparse number of polls, it is difficult to gauge who is ahead. What polls do show though is that most undecided voters are Republicans (mainly those who voted for moderate Lugar and are worried about Mourdock's extremism,) so Donnelly has been tying himself to Lugar, including mentioning how Lugar and him both backed the auto bailout which saved Indiana jobs. Although Indiana is a Republican leaning state, I do see a path for Donnelly to win. Obama did win in 2008 so voters here are open to supporting Democrats. Nate Silver says Donnelly has a 52.5% chance to win, showing a very tight race. 


Montana (Jon Tester (D)): Rep. Danny Rehberg (R) is challenging Tester, a popular incumbent with strong campaign skills (who can forget his haircut ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joQi27QG7Cs) and his new ad with a similar Montana theme (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1pteKuWCEI&feature=channel&list=UL.) Rehberg however is well known and popular throughout this Republican leaning state, making it more difficult.  Like in 2006, this race could be one of the last Senatorial races decided and the polls reflect a very tight race. What Tester has to do is to win over some Romney voters who are conservative on guns while capitalizing on Obama turnout in the cities. In 2006, Tester won by carrying Native Americans and urban voters. He needs to replicate this to win. 

Nevada (Dean Heller (R)): This is another chance for a Democratic pickup as Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) from Las Vegas challenges appointed Senator Heller, a former Representative from the northern part of the state.   Recently Berkley is making a wise campaign move by campaigning heavily in Reno because voters there are unfamiliar with her. She does not want to repeat the 2006 gubernatorial race where Dina Titus (D), a Las Vegas centric candidate over performed in Vegas but lost because she underperformed in Reno. Heavy turnout in Las Vegas should help Berkley (Obama will be targeting Clark County too due to the large base there,) but unless she can win Clark County by more than 10 points, she needs to make inroads in Heller's base.  Also, Nevada is underpolled in the Democrats' favor. The reason is that Obama is polling well in Nevada and OFA is registering voters like crazy and volunteers are flooding the state to help out Obama. This made a big difference in 2008 when polls showed Obama leading by 6 but he ended up winning by 12 in Nevada. Also, the Harry Reid organization is working strong for Berkley. Also, the Melman polling group found her ahead by 3 points and they were the only polling firm showing Reid with a lead right before November 6th. Melman's track record is very strong and if they show Berkley ahead, they are probably right.

North Dakota (Open Kent Conrad (D)): At first, this seat seemed to be an easy Republican pickup for Rep. Rick Berg (R). This race has narrowed after former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) announced her candidacy. Many North Dakotans vote for the person, not the party and Berg is not very personally popular which works in Hentkamp's favor. She is very likable and a news reporter described her as "the person who hugs everyone in the room while Berg is the person in the room who gives talking points about why you should vote for him."  North Dakota really likes personally popular candidates (Kent Conrad won easily because he is personally popular,)  but it is a Presidential year and North Dakota should go for Romney. Berg has been working to tie Heitkamp to Obama and he may receive support for the new conservative residents moving in after the oil boom. Heitkamp though hopes she can win over enough native North Dakotans who are used to voting for likable Democrats. A recent poll showed a tied race. 

Virginia (Open Jim Webb (D)): This race pits two former Governors against each other, Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Most polls show this race to be extremely close although Kaine seems to have gained a slight edge. A Rasmussen poll (a Republican leaning polling firm,) with a likely voter model showed a dead heat between the two. Also, Allen may face some backlash from the racial slur “macaca” he said to a campaign worker for Jim Webb while complaining that the campaign worker would catch any gaffes he made. Also, another hopeful sign for Kaine is that Obama barely leads in Virginia and while there are many Romney-Kaine voters (a recent New York Times article showed how many southwest Virginians were ticket splitting,) but there were almost no Obama-Allen voters. For Kaine to win, he has to perform well in Northern Virginia, winning with 60%+ in Fairfax County and carrying bellwether Loudon County. Also, high African American turnout in the Hampton Roads/Richmond area should help Kaine too. Kaine and Allen are both well known so most voters have chosen a side so the candidates have to focus on turning out their voters. In a recent debate though, Kaine made a gaffe about tax rates but it does not seem to have much backlash. Polls though have differed on Kaine's lead. PPP says Kaine is ahead by 7 but Rasmussen says Kaine is leading by only 1. I would guess it is somewhere in between, maybe around 3 points but it is still in the tossup zone. 

Lean Republican (0 seats) 

Likely Republican (5 seats) 

Nebraska (Open Ben Nelson (D)): Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson has retired and Democrats found former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), their best candidate to retake this seat. Kerrey was once very popular in Nebraska but since his Senate retirement, Kerrey has been President of Eugene Lang College in New York City, hurting his Nebraska roots.  Also, polls have shown the Republican candidate Debbie Fischer (R) with a 10-18 point lead, suggesting this will be a Republican pickup. Kerrey received a recent boost from comedian Steve Martin who endorsed Kerrey and released a strong ad for him here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/05/steve-martin-bob-kerrey_n_1942521.html (Martin also has not endorsed candidates until now.) It may help move a few voters but Fischer's lead is too high for Kerrey to overcome. 

Likely Independent: (1 seat)

Maine (Open Olympia Snowe (R)): Moderate Republican Snowe is retiring (who can blame her? She was a swing vote in the Senate and felt pressure from both parties.) This race seemed to be a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats until former Governor Angus King (I) threw his hat in the ring and polls show him ahead 20%+. He has not announced which party he will caucus with but his liberal leaning views such as his support for Obamacare and marriage equality suggest he may caucus with the Democrats. He also endorsed John Kerry for President in 2004 as well as endorsing Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Republicans think they can win this race and have been backing their Republican candidate. Democratic candidate Cynthia Dill (D) is polling below 10% though so she will probably not be a big spoiler. Also, most pundits are suggesting King will caucus with the Democrats (although he has not officially announced yet,) so this race should be considered a Democratic pickup. Also, King has outraised the other candidates by more than 2-1.

Overall, what does the Republican path to the Senate majority look like? Well, they already have 47 seats and need 4 seats to win a majority, assuming Obama wins reelection and Biden is the tiebreaker. Nebraska is already likely R and Maine is Likely Independent (Angus King probably will caucus with the Democrats,) so Republicans need to sweep all tossups which includes retaining AZ, IN and NV and picking up VA, ND and MT. That still only gives them +3 so they must win one of the leaning Democratic seats, CT, MA, MO or WI. Democrats have leads in all those states so it makes it difficult for Republicans to make a surprise win. Overall, Republicans have a very difficult path to the Senate majority, even with the post first debate performance.