Key Counties to Watch on the March 15th Primaries

The  Super Tuesday 2.0 is here and there are 691 delegates at stake. As  my friend calls it, “Significant Tuesday.” This is a chance for Hillary to secure her 200+ pledged delegate lead or for Sanders to prolong the race. Pundits expect Clinton to win Florida and North Carolina easily while Ohio, Illinois and Missouri should be close (although a few pundits say Sanders will win Missouri). Here are the key counties and regions to watch while the results unfold (on the Democratic side only).

Florida:

Florida is expected to go strongly for Hillary Clinton. The RCP polling average shows Hillary with a  29 point lead. The three main regions are: Gold Coast, I-4 Corridor and outstate Florida.  Hillary should perform well in outstate, mainly because of the high African American population in northern Florida, the elderly voters in the Villages and the wealthy voters on the southwest coast of Florida. She is also expected to do well in  the Gold Coast (Miami) with the high Hispanic, African American and elderly populations. Counties Sanders can try to score an upset:

Alachua County: the University of Florida is here but a  high African American population is here as well. This county will be close.

Counties north of Tampa: counties such as Pasco, Hernando and Citrus are heavily white and not as wealthy as the southwest coast of Florida. These have similar demographics to counties Bernie won in Michigan (and Midwestern transplants). At the same time, the percentage of elderly voters here is almost the highest in the nation so it is likely Bernie cannot even win here.

North Carolina:

This is another state where Hillary is expected to perform well, this time with a 24 point lead in the RCP average. Hillary should perform well in the eastern part of the state due to the high African American population. She should do well in the urban areas of  Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte as well. If Bernie wins a few counties, he needs to perform well in:

Western North Carolina: this is Appalachia with a low African American population but as shown in Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia, Hillary wins southern rural white voters.

Durham and Orange Counties: Duke and UNC are here but so are high African American populations.

Charlotte suburbs: Gaston and Union Counties  voted for Hillary by narrow margins in 08. These are heavily white and upscale suburban counties. If Bernie wants to make inroads among the upscale voters he needs to win these.

Ohio:

Here we go to our first  swing state of the evening. The RCP average has Hillary with an 8 point lead but after Michigan, it is highly unlikely that the Clinton folks are taking any chances. Ohio though will probably not be a Michigan repeat because Independents are represented in these polls. Also, Michigan has only one large urban area, Ohio however has:

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): this county is the center of Ohio’s Democratic base. Obama won here by 260,000 votes in 2008, Kerry won here by 227,000  votes in 2004. It is about 30% African American. Hillary will need those votes and if she wins Cuyahoga County with a margin of 57% or higher, she will probably win statewide. Obama won 54% here with his 8 point loss in 2008.

Franklin County: (Columbus) Franklin County used to be a swing county (Gore won by a few point) but as shown in 2012 (Obama won it by 20) it has become strongly Democratic. It is the 2nd most populous county in Ohio (after Cuyahoga). Obama won 56% here but expect Hillary to do worse because while there is a large African American population (20% of the county), there is a large population of college students as well. There are upscale Democrats  too so Hillary should win (although narrowly). If she loses, expect a good night for Bernie.

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Hamilton is the 3rd most populated county in Ohio and it was also Obama’s best. With a low number of white Democrats and a 23% African American population, Hillary  should aim to at least match Obama’s percentages in the low 60s.

Lucas County (Toledo): Toledo is a smaller city (Lucas County has roughly 480k people) and Obama lost it by 5 points in 2008 but Hillary should win here. The reason is that she lost Monroe County, Michigan (which borders Toledo) by only one point and Monroe County has a lower African American population than Lucas County does. It depends how big the Hillary win is here though.

Summit County (Akron): this is a county to watch. It has a 13% African American population and a large number of working class union voters who may lean Sanders. Hillary can probably win Ohio without Summit county but if she wins it, Bernie cannot win.

Sanders should do well in the rural part of the state, but Hillary can make a play for:

Southeast Ohio: this is a heavily white and rural area. Hillary though showed that she can win Appalachian voters on March 1st so if she can win northern Appalachian voters and score some surprise wins in rural areas, this is the area to watch. It  voted heavily for her in 08.

Illinois:

This is another close state. Despite a high African American population (15%), a large number of upscale voters and high Obama popularity, Illinois could be a tough state for Hillary. The RCP average has her winning by 2.3 points and the trusty PPP poll has her leading by 3. Here are the key counties to watch:

Cook County (Chicago): nearly half of the state’s Democratic votes live here. Hillary wants a large margin from the south side with its high African American population. She also wants to do well in northern Cook County with upscale Democrats near Evanston similar to the upscale Dems in Massachusetts that helped her win there. Sanders though is making a play for Hispanics, young African Americans and working class voters. He also is tying Hillary to the unpopular mayor Rahm Emanuel.  If Hillary wins Cook County by 5 points or less, she should be worried.

Lake County: is Hillary winning upscale voters? Look no further than Lake County which is north of Cook County, is upscale and suburban. I was phone banking for Hillary here and found mostly Hillary supporters but I do not know how they targeted the voters. Hillary will also look to do well in other upscale areas such as McHenry and DuPage. If she loses Lake County though and gets a five point or lower win in Cook, she will lose Illinois.

Downstate: this is rural Illinois and Sanders needs large margins in the rural areas to win. Hillary though could try to score some upsets in:

-St. Clair/Madison Counties: these are St. Louis suburbs with some heavily African American areas.

-Sangamon County: this is Springfield which also has some heavily African American neighborhoods.

-Pulaski County: this county is 30% African American and at the southern tip of Illinois. This was the only part of Illinois Hillary won in 08 so watch her try to repeat her win there.

Missouri:

This is the state Sanders has the best chance to win. With the state being only 11% African American and having a large white working class population, this is tough terrain for Hillary. PP has  Sanders winning by one point. Nate Silver says Hillary has a 54% chance of winning here.

St. Louis City: African Americans are about half the population here but there are many younger white Democrats as well. Hillary should win here but if her  margin is under 60% she should be concerned.

St. Louis County: with upscale voters, a 20% African American population and Ferguson, Hillary should win here. She also needs to keep her percentage above 60%. Obama won 63% here in his narrow Missouri win.

Jackson County (Kansas City): although there is an African American population in the 20s here, it is more working class and borders Kansas where Bernie performed well. If Hillary loses this county, she is in trouble.

Rural Missouri: although Hillary won rural Iowa on the Missouri border, that may have been more due to her ground game. Sanders should perform well in this part of the state. Hillary though can score some wins in rural counties in southeastern Missouri which border her husband’s home state Arkansas and a few counties in southeast Missouri such as New Madrid have  significant African American populations as well.

Ohio Fair Redistricting Map

As you may know, Ohio recently passed its new redistricting map for the 2010's decade. Ohio has a reputation for being the biggest swing state, deciding the election of 2004 and voting near the national average in 2000, 2004, and 2008. One might expect the legislature to draw a map designed to elect an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, so all political parties are fairly represented. The Republican legislature decided not to do that, instead, they drew a map designed to elect 12 Republicans and four Democrats. To create the large number of Republican districts, they split communities of interest by combining Toledo with Cleveland instead of creating a district representing Toledo and nearby counties. Also, instead of combining Cincinnati with nearby suburbs, they combine Cincinnati with a string to Warren County, an extremely conservative exurban county. They should have created a district representing as much of Hamilton County as possible because Hamilton County is where Cincinnati and its close suburbs are located. They should then create a district that represents the outer suburbs in Clermont, Warren and Butler Counties. Also, they placed Springfield and Lucas County (Toledo) in the same district. Another example of their splitting of communities of interest is when they combine suburbs close to Cleveland with not more Cleveland suburbs or Cleveland, they combine it Canton which is south of Akron and should not share a representative with voters who live in the Cleveland area. Canton and Cleveland are two distinct cities with two distinct metropolitan areas. The Ohio legislature should learn the intended purpose of congressional districts. It was not to help one's political party while stifling the voice of communities; it was to increase the voice of a community, not a political party. For example, in the 9th district which was drawn to absorb Democratic areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, if Marcy Kaptur (D) from Toledo retired and the district elected a Cleveland politician, the Toledo area will have no representative to go to Washington and fight for Toledo's interests because a Cleveland politician will not understand Toledo's interests as well as a Toledo politician would. Toledo has enough people for a district that can be drawn centered around it that would elect a representative who is familiar with Toledo's needs. Anyway, here is my map that combines communities of interest and creates competitive districts so incumbents will have to tailor to the needs of both parties in order to win reelection.

 Instead of creating 12 districts for the Republicans to win and 4 seats for the Democrats to win, this fair map tries to represent Ohio's close divide between both parties. This fair map also creates some competitive seats instead of seats designed to protect Republican incumbents for as long as they want. It creates four safe Democratic seats, two likely Democratic seats, three tossup seats, two lean Republican (they will both become tossups when their Republican incumbents retire,) one likely Republican seat and four safe Republican seats. Also, it is possible that there will be a referendum on the maps. If they are overtuned, a court will draw them. Hopefully the court draws a map similar to this one that respects communities of interest and creates many districts designed to be competitive for both parties.

Here is a link to Ohio's current congressional map: http://www.ocsea.org/politicalaction/districts.asp

Here is a link to the map Ohio's Republicans drew: http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2011/09/ohios_new_congressional_distri.html

Ohio statewide
Ohio's 1st Congressional District Steve Chabot (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 203,768 55.0%, McCain 162,949 44.0%
Average: Dem  52.1%, Rep  47.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Demographics 18+: 25.8% African American, 68.6% White
Status: Tossup

The 1st district becomes more centered around Cincinnati instead of extending into the suburbs around Hamilton County (Cincinnati.) The 1st district loses all of Butler County, stays completely within Hamilton County and gains all of Cincinnati as well as some nearby suburbs in eastern Hamilton County. As the district becomes more compact, it becomes more competitive as it gains swing areas in eastern Cincinnati in exchange for conservative areas in Butler County. This represents communities of interest better than the Ohio map the Republicans drew because that map combined exurbs in Warren County with inner city Cincinnati. Although Chabot won the district in 2010, that year had low Democratic turnout in heavily Democratic areas such as Cincinnati's inner city and the district is trending Democratic as Republican leaning voters move into suburban Butler, Warren and Clermont Counties. If Obama increases African American turnout in 2012, the Democrats will have a strong shot at winning. In a low turnout year though, Republicans will have a stronger chance.

Southwest Ohio
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District Jean Schmidt (R) vs. John Boehner (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 123,033 34.1%, McCain 233,542 64.7%
Average: Dem  35.4%, Rep  64.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 59%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 89.8% White
Status: Safe Republican

When I drew this map, I did not consider incumbents so John Boehner's (R) home is in the same district as Jean Schimdt's (R) but most of the territory here is in her current district. Boehner is Speaker of the House though so he should have no problem raising money in the primary but he may decide to run in the 8th district instead which contains most of his current district's territory. The new lines though remove Democratic parts of Hamilton County, making the district the most Republican one in Ohio so Schmidt can be as far right as she wants without worrying about a tough race in a Democratic year. In 2006 and 2008, she faced tight races from moderate Democrats who painted her as far right.

Ohio's 3rd Congressional District Mike Turner (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,716 50.2%, McCain 180,038 48.2%
Average: Dem  49.7%,  50.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 16.1% African American, 78.6% White
Status: Lean Republican, Tossup when Turner retires

This district becomes more Democratic and compact, losing rural counties such as Highland County that belong in a district that represents other rural counties in southern Ohio, not urban areas. The 3rd district combines urban areas, representing all of Montgomery County (Dayton) and Clark County (Springfield) as well as suburban Beavercreek in Greene County. Although the 3rd district becomes more Democratic, Turner should win here because he is popular and entrenched here. If he retires though, Democrats will have a strong shot at this district but it is trending Republican. Clark County voted for Gore in 2000 but Obama could not carry it in 2008.

Ohio's 4th Congressional District Vacant (Jim Jordan (R)?) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 140,593 41.0%, McCain 195,396 56.9%
Average: Dem  44.9%, Rep  55.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Demographics 18+: 4.6% African American, 91.4% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district moves further north as it loses four rural counties in the southern part of the district to the 8th district. It also loses Urbana which is Jordan's home but because this district contains most of Jordan's current territory and is strongly Republican, Jordan may run here. The district becomes a few points less Republican though as it gains swingy Sandusky County. Also, Bob Latta (R) may run here because his 5th district is eliminated and the 4th district adds part of his current district. Jordan represents more of the new 4th district than Latta does though so Jordan has the advantage.

Ohio's 5th Congressional District Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 174,487 48.9%, McCain 176,327 49.3%
Average: Dem 54.6%, McCain  45.4%
Old Presidential Data: (formerly the 16th) Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics 18+: 3.7% African American, 91.7% White
Status: Tossup

This new district combines most of north central Ohio. It represents Democratic areas in Erie and Lorian Counties but also contains Medina and Ashland Counties which help counterbalance the Democratic areas. Overall, the district voted for McCain by less than 1 point so although the district may lean Republican, Democrats should have a shot here. Sutton though may decide to run in the nearby 13th district which is more Democratic and does not contain a Republican incumbent's residency. The 5th district contains more of her current district than the new 13th district on this map does though. Also, the average percentage for the district was 54.6% Democratic so the district definitely seems Democratic at a statewide level. It depends on how strongly turnout in Lorain and Erie Counties counterbalance the rest of the district.

Ohio's 6th Congressional District Bob Gibbs (R) vs. Bill Johnson (R) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 145,046 45.9%, McCain 163,435 51.7%
Average: Dem  55.7%, Rep  44.3%
Old Presidential Data: (for 6th district) Obama 49%, McCain 50% (for 18th district) Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Demographics 18+: 95.7% White
Status: Tossup

This district combines the homes of freshmen Bob Gibbs (R) and Bill Johnson (R). Gibbs represents a larger portion of the district though while the only areas in Johnson's current district and this one are Athens, his home of Marietta and a few small Ohio River counties. This district represents communities of interest though by combining rural counties with some small cities in eastern Ohio. Gibbs should win the primary here but he could face a tough general. Although this part of Ohio is trending away from the Democrats, the Democratic average was nearly 56% and former Reps. Charlie Wilson (D) or Zack Space (D) who lost in the 2010 Republican wave could make a comeback here in a neutral or Democratic year.

Ohio's 7th Congressional District Steve Austria (R) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 130,340 41.0%, McCain 181,484 57.1%
Average: Dem 46.5%, Rep 53.5%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics 18+: 4.8% African American, 92.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Franklin County (Columbus) and gains some conservative rural counties in the southern portion of the state. The district becomes centered around the rural southern part of the state. He should face no primary challenge unless Jean Schmidt (R) decides to run here because many of the counties in her current district were added to the 7th. She probably will not run though because her home is in the 2nd district.

Ohio's 8th Congressional District Vacant (John Boehner (R)?) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 122,984 35.4%, McCain 217,843 62.7%
Average: Dem 39.0%, Rep 61.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 62%
Demographics 18+: 94.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 8th district becomes more rural as it gains counties along Ohio's western border and extends further into the central part of the state. Although Boehner does not live in the district, he may run here because it contains large portions of his current district with Preble, Butler and Miami Counties. The new counties the 8th district are both from the current 4th and 5th districts but it is unlikely Jordan or Latta would want to challenge Boehner in a primary because Boehner is the speaker.

Toledo area
Ohio's 9th Congressional District Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 210,399 58.6%, McCain 142,849 39.8%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 4.4% Hispanic, 11.2% African American, 81.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 9th district the Republicans in the Ohio Legislature drew combines Toledo with inner city Cleveland. This does not combine communities of interest because Toledo is an industrial area that looks toward Detroit and auto manufacturing while Cleveland focuses more around steel. This 9th district on this map though combines communities of interest instead of combining urban areas in western and eastern Ohio. Those communities of interest are Toledo and the nearby small cities and farming areas in western Ohio such as Bowling Green. Although the majority of the district's population is in Kaptur's current district, she gains Bowling Green which is where Latta lives. If Latta challenges Kaptur, Kaptur should win because she has represented parts of the district since the early 1980s and the district has a strong Democratic lean. Latta will probably want a safer district so he may run in the 4th district which also contains part of his current district.

Cleveland area
Ohio's 10th Congressional District Dennis Kucinich (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 199,469 54.8%, McCain 159,398 43.8%
Average: Dem 60.3%, Rep 39.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 4.9% Hispanic, 87.8% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The map of Ohio that the Republicans drew for the 10th district creates a district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs with Canton and Amish country. The Cleveland suburbs are urban and are focused around Cleveland, not Canton or rural Amish. That is why I drew a 10th district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs, including those in Lorain County. Anyway, the district becomes more Republican as it loses large parts of Cleveland and gains Republican leaning suburbs in southern Cuyahoga County. Although this district leans Democratic, it may not be Democratic enough to elect a far left Democrat such as Kucinich but it could elect a more moderate Democrat such as Betty Sutton. This district is trending Republican though so at the end of the decade, Republicans may be very competitive here.

Ohio's 11th Congressional District Marcia Fudge (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 300,111 81.5%, McCain 65,061 17.7%
Average: Dem 81.1%, Rep 18.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 42.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware that combining Akron and Cleveland does not represent communities of interest. I have to respect the Voting Rights Act though and draw one African American VAP majority district in the area surrounding Cleveland. This district combines African Americans in Cleveland's east side and in Akron. Fudge should have no trouble in the general election but it is possible that a candidate from Akron may challenge her in the primary.

Columbus area

Ohio's 12th Congressional District:: Pat Tiberi (R) CornflowerBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 183,965 50.0%, McCain 179,489 48.7%
Average: Dem 48.0%, Rep 52.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 15.0% African American, 76.8% White
Status: Likely Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses part of Columbus's central city and becomes more suburban. It gains the suburban Blackhawk estates in southeast Franklin County. Although the district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic, voters here still vote Republican locally and Tiberi is personally popular in the district. Democrats failed to unseat him in 2006 and 2008 when his district voted 54% for Obama. In this safer district, Tiberi should win easily but if he retires, a strong Democrat will have a chance.

Ohio's 13th Congressional District Vacant
Presidential Data: Obama 191,833 54.1%, McCain 156,554 44.2%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Demographics 18+: 8.6% African American, 87.3% White
Status: Likely Democratic

This district combines the urban areas of Canton and Akron. On the new Ohio map, the Republicans drew districts that combined Canton and Akron with Mansfield, the Clevleand suburbs and Youngstown. Instead of diluting their voting power though, this district ensures that these areas will have a voice in the House. The district contains all of Stark County (Canton) and represents the eastern part of Summit County (Akron.) As for the candidates in the district, no incumbent currently lives here but Betty Sutton (D) may decide to run here because she lives in the 5th district which voted 49% for Obama, even though her current district and the new 13th share no territory. Also, the 54% Obama percentage gives Republicans a shot at this district in a Republican year.

Ohio's 14th Congressional District Steve LaTourette (R) Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 191,168 51.8%, McCain 172,047 46.8%
Average: Dem 56.0%, Rep 44.0%
Old Presidential Data: McCain 49%, Obama 49%
Demographics 18+: 3.5% African American, 92.2% White
Status: Lean Republican if Tourette runs, Tossup if not

The 14th congressional district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of its current territory and it becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative parts of Summit County while gaining Democratic leaning Portage County and Democratic parts of Cuyahoga County. These areas are mostly communities of interest by being in the northeastern corner of Ohio. As for the district's representation, LaTourette is very popular and moderate and won in the wave years of 2006 and 2008. If he decides to retire though, Democrats will be very competitive here and the district should trend Democratic as Democrats in Cleveland move further out into suburbs in areas such as Lake County.

Ohio's 15th Congressional District Steve Strivers (R) DarkOrange
Presidential Data: Obama 207,581 61.6%, McCain 123,762 36.7%
Average: Dem 60.9%, Rep 39.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 4.2% Hispanic, 17.2% African American, 72.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 15th congressional district  loses rural Madison and Union Counties and now is completely inside Franklin County (Columbus.) These changes help representation for communities of interest by eliminating rural parts of the district and making it centered around urban Columbus. As for the district's representation, Obama's percentage increases from 54% to 62%, eliminating any chance for Republicans. Strivers has no real option on this map because the new 15th district is too Democratic for him and Tiberi is too popular for a successful primary challenge. As for the Democrat in this district, the candidates who are planning to run in the Columbus district on the Republicans' map such as Mary Jo Kilroy (D) probably would run here.

Ohio's 16th Congressional District Tim Ryan (D) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 204,470 56.5%, McCain 149,673 41.3%
Average: Dem 70.7%, Rep 29.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 8.1% African American, 88.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 17th district becomes the 16th district and gains some industrial counties along the Ohio River valley while retaining the Youngstown area. This district represents communities of interest by combining industrial counties in eastern Ohio. The Youngstown area is Democratic but the Ohio River counties are more swingy so the addition of those counties bring Obama's percentage down to 57%. The Average Democrat's performance is 71% though, suggesting this area still votes heavily Democratic for local races. Although this district certainly looks Democratic enough to support Ryan, by the end of the decade, it could become more competitive if white working class voters continue to trend Republican.

Changing Senate Races After Labor Day

 In many states across the country, Democrats are looking at losing Senate seats. Fortunately, most pundits including myself believe that the Republicans will not pick up enough seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Still, many people believe the Republicans will pick up about 6-7 seats and the trend is more for the Republicans. Some races though are not as solidly Republican as you may think though. It may be because the Democrat is not well known to voters or has not spent enough time to define him/herself and the opponent. Since Labor Day is not here yet, the real campaign season is not here either (unless your name is Meg Whitman and you are spending money nonstop.) That is a good example (and probably the most famous) one of the races where the Democrat has not kicked the campaign into high gear. Not all races where one candidate will start doing better after Labor Day are races where Democrats will improve. For example, Ohio has a tied race with Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D). Portman has raised a large amount of money and when he starts spending it, he should open a lead. Now here is a list of the races which should change after Labor Day:

Delaware: Michael Castle (R) vs. Chris Coons (D)
Chris Coons is the County Supervisor for New Castle County (Wilmington) which is known as the state's  bellwether. Castle is the At-Large Representative for Delaware, he is a moderate and he has represented it for awhile. Also, his moderate views make him appealing to independents. Most polling also shows Castle with about a 10 point lead. Although Coons at first appears to be in trouble, he has a good shot at making this close. Coons needs to introduce himself to voters and the Democratic lean of Delaware should help him close in on castle. Still, this race looks like Castle's to lose.

Indiana: Dan Coats (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Coats is a former Indiana Senator and a former lobbyist. Ellsworth has been a U.S House member in southwestern Indiana for four years. Coats is definitely more of the incumbent but this race will tell us whether it is really an anti incumbent year or just an anti Democratic year. Most polls show Coats with a solid lead over Ellsworth. Do not expect the lead to be so large soon. Ellsworth won by 24 points in 2006, knocking out Republican John Hosteletter (R) and he is extremely popular in that district. Once Ellsworth starts introducing himself to rural voters outside of his district, he should get closer to Coats because Ellsworth pro gun stances and other views popular in rural areas should help him. Coats voted for the Brady Bill so it is even possible Ellsworth will get the NRA endorsement. Although I expect a Coats win by 5 points, Coats's big lead in the polls now is due to Ellsworth not being well known.

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Carnahan is the Secretary of State and she won by 26 points in 2008 and won the important rural areas of Missouri. For a Democrat to win an election here, he/she must keep Republican margins in rural areas down enough so they do not offset Democratic votes in St. Louis/Kansas City areas. Also, Carnahan's opponent is Roy Blunt who is from conservative southwest Missouri where Democrats never make big inroads (so no hometown advantage for him.) Blunt also is the former Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. You would think Carnahan would have this race in the bag but most polls show Blunt leading Carnahan by a few points. The likely explanation is that since Obama is unpopular in Missouri (he did not even win here in 2008,) the unpopularity is spilling over to Carnahan. Still, she has a better shot once she starts defining Roy Blunt and reminding 61% of Missouri voters why they supported her. This race should get closer but I expect a Blunt win.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
So far, races that I am saying will change are races which should shift toward the Democratic candiate. This race though should shift towards the Republicans. Portman (R) is the former U.S Trade Representative under the Bush Administration and Bush is still unpopular in Ohio. Lee Fisher (D), the Lieutenant Governor is a solid candidate from Northeast Ohio where Democrats need big turnout to win. Most polls show a close race but after Labor Day, Portman should get a bigger lead. His advantage is that he has much more money than Fisher so he will be able to blanket the state with ads while Fisher will not. Although Fisher has the backing of the state's strong unions, it will probably not be enough for him to win.

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D)
If one race will see a big shift in polls after Labor Day, it will be this one. Joe Sestak surprised everyone by beating Arlen Specter (D) by 8 points, thanks to an ad blitz at the end with Sestak defining himself as a populist which played really well in West Pennsylvania. Also, there was a clear contrast when Specter gave a not so exciting concession speech while Sestak was very energetic. Now Sestak needs to use his energy against Toomey, a former big Club For Growth conservative. In 2004, Toomey ran as the conservative when he primaried Specter but Toomey is now running to the center. Although most polls show Sestak behind, Sestak has not kicked in his campaign yet. If there is one race that will see a big shift, it will be this one. Sestak will probably wait until the last minute to do an ad blitz but as we saw with Martha Coakley (D) in Massachusetts, waiting until the last minute is not a good idea. Still, it worked for Sestak in the primary so it might work again. This race will end up being really close.

How Lee Fisher Can Win

 Yet again, Ohio will be a battleground state for a hard fought race. In 2004, this state was ground zero for campaigning as Bush and Kerry focused all their efforts here. Kerry did well in traditionally Democratic cities and even did well in urban swing counties. He unfortunately could not match Bush's margins in rural and suburban counties so he lost. In 2008 though, Obama turned out the cities even more. He improved in certain rural areas, most specifically the northern and western parts of the state. The area Obama was most successful in improving over Kerry was the suburbs of the big cities. Still, the national trend to Obama over Kerry was higher than the trend in Ohio. In the 2010 Senate race, Lee Fisher (D) will need to perform well to be successful in winning Ohio like Obama. Fisher is the Lieutenant Governor and he is from Cleveland. Before he was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2006 , Fisher was a State Senator from Cleveland. Polls show him in a tight race for George Voinovich's (R) open U.S Senate seat against Rob Portman (R). Besides being a former congressman from the Cincinnati area, Portman worked under the Bush Administration. Although 2010 should be a good year for Republicans, Fisher has a chance of actually picking up a Republican Senate seat by beating Portman. Fisher will soon have to face Portman's deep pockets but Fisher can still win this race. Here are some good ways for him to do that:

• Make the race about Portman and his background. Rob Portman was a U.S trade representative under the Bush Administration.  On his website, Fisher does mention how he will not be a continuation of Bush policies. Unfortunately, this strategy is starting to become stale with the Democrats' popularity falling. The strategy works though because Portman is not an outsider Republican, he was a Republican in the Bush Administration. Fisher must remind voters about how bad Bush was while portraying himself as someone with new ideas. Already, Fisher mentions on his website frequently how he  does not represent the policies that lead us into this economic decline but Portman does. Something else Fisher does well is that he has a page devoted to jobs with a detailed plan for creating them. He needs to keep focusing on jobs. It did not work for Kerry in 2004 in Ohio but it will work now.
• Focus more on the rural voters. Fisher's website does have a page for rural voters but it should be more detailed and show specific ways Fisher helped farmers and others in rural communities. Farmers and others in rural areas were the reason Bush won Ohio in 2004 so if Fisher can swing some of them to the Democrats, he should be successful. Fisher should run an ad showing how Portman wanted to cut farm subsidies by 60% while Fisher has strongly supported the 2008 farm bill and development for rural communities. Fisher highlights how he strongly fought crime and helped children in urban areas. These issues should help with votes in Cleveland, Akron and will probably play well in Columbus. Farmers working on their crops will not be thinking about crime in urban areas right now though.
• Win the rural counties near the Ohio River (also known as Southeast Ohio.) Fisher has roots in Northeast Ohio while Portman is popular in the Cincinnati and Southwest Ohio areas. The union presence may help Fisher in Southeast Ohio but if Fisher wants to win, he must run up numbers here. In 2006, successful Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland (D) and Senatorial candidate Sherrod Brown piled up large margins in these counties. In 2004, Kerry tried to win by winning big margins in Northeast Ohio. Even though he won areas outside of Northeast Ohio like Columbus and Dayton, it still was not enough to win. Overall, Kerry proved that unless you do well in rural areas (or run up margins in urban areas outside of Northeast Ohio,) you cannot win in Ohio. For Fisher to win here, he needs to highlight his family's background as eastern European immigrants. Although many voters are Scots-Irish, there is a good portion of eastern European immigrant descendants throughout Northeast Ohio and the river counties. Also, Fisher needs to highlight strongly how he helped workers rights with his support of the Paycheck Fairness Act for example.
• Win the progressive base that supported Jennifer Brunner (D) before Fisher beat her in the Senatorial primary. This should not be too hard for Fisher even though Brunner said she will not endorse him. This should not impact Fisher strongly because there is not a large progressive base in Ohio. Many of the Democrats here are more liberal on issues like the economy but are not the environment liberals you find in California or the social liberals you find in New York City. Columbus and Athens are two of the few areas where progressives are strong. Fisher is trying to appeal to the base by highlighting his work on civil rights. Also, the results from the primary show Fisher not doing poorly in progressive areas so maybe he never had any trouble with them at all.
• Match Portman on the money front. Rob Portman is beating Fisher on the money front. Fisher could consider pandering to the progressive base but that could hurt his standing among moderates. Anyway, Brunner was considered the progressive but she received little money from donors, even the progressive base. At the primary, Brunner interestingly won some rural counties with few progressives though. If Fisher successfully painted Portman as a product of the Bush Administration, he could energize some progressives which would cause him to raise money. Still, Fisher should not nationalize the race. I believe the best way for Fisher to get money is through the unions because they are powerful in Ohio and he has a record of supporting workers rights.

Overall, Fisher is running a good campaign with putting jobs as front and center and making comparisons between Portman and Bush. He is also solidifying his lead in urban Ohio by talking about how he helped reduce crime. What he needs to do is focus more on rural issues and rural voters. Highlighting his family's background as immigrants from Russia and working in the steel industry helps him along the Ohio River and strengthens him in  Northeast Ohio. Many farmers and other rural residents cannot relate to Fisher's family story though. Fisher does not give specific examples of bills he helped work on or sponsored to help rural areas. Saying you support rural residents is good but Fisher must give specific examples of how he helped them. If urban voters turn out strongly for Fisher because he highlighted important issues for them such as crime and workers rights but if Fisher also keeps down margins in rural areas, Fisher can be Ohio's next Senator.

The Three Big Battlegrounds of the East

The three big battlegrounds of the presidential election. What do you think they are. Do you think they are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvaina. If that is your guess, you are two thirds right. Obama is leading in every poll by either the high single digits or low double digits. McCain still thinks he can win there but with Philadelphia probably going to deliever Obama something a bit over a 450,000 vote margin and the horrible economy, McCain should pull out of there. The state that takes Pennsylvania's place is not Virginia, it looks like Obama will win there by five points. The state that really will be close is North Carolina. It is the third big battleground in the Eastern time zone. These three states are going to be very close in the general election and while you are watching the returns on election night, we are going to tell you what to look for when the results start trickling in.

In Ohio, probably the most competitive state this election, there are alot of things to watch for. Obama is planning to do really well in Cuyahoga County which contains Cleveland. Its population is 29% African American and the county is heavily unionized. Kerry got a margin there of 227,000 votes but it was not enough. Obama will have to do better than Kerry there and can probably get about an extra 40,000 votes. Another place Obama has to do well is Franklin County which contains Columbus. It is a well educated area with some African Americans. Obama would probably need to get a margin at a minimum of 20,000 votes or higher than Kerry's. Then there is Hamilton County which contains Cinnecinati. We believe that if Obama can win Hamilton County, he will win Ohio. Bush won Hamilton County by 23,000 votes and about 23% African American. They will definitely turnout strongly for him and they may be what it takes for Obama to win. Then there is the rural and conservative western part of the state where Obama needs to keep down McCain's margins. Since the area turned out heavily in 2004, there is probably not much room for increase. Then there is the Manhoning valley where Obama needs to do better than Kerry. Since the economy is failing there, the voters may want change but the Hillary and Bradley effect are pretty prevalent there. They may not be enough.

In Florida, there are alot of things to monitor. Watch Miami Dade County and see how Obama is doing there. He will need to win that county by ten points or more. Miami Dade County has alot of African Americans and Cuban Americans and it will be important to see how the Hispanics will vote and how large the African American turnout will be. Obama will need to do better than Kerry in the rest of the Gold Coast. Palin was a big help to Obama in those counties because Jewish voters who were originally scared of Obama's race and opinions of Israel and more scared of how right wing Palin is. Then in the Tampa Bay area, Obama will need to win Pinellas County by about 5 points and he will need to win Hillsborough County. That county will be close and we think if Obama wins Hillsborough County, he will win Florida. In Orange County where Orlando is, Obama will need to win there by five points. The I-4 corrider votes one point more Republican than the rest of the state, if Obama can carry it, he wins Florida. The central part of the Panhandle will be interesting to watch. Tallahassee and small counties with alot of African Americans are located there. Obama needs to do much better there than Kerry did.

In North Carolina, there are less places to really analyze since it is the smallest state out of these three. Obama has to do very well in the northeastern part of the state which has alot of rural African American communities. Also an important county to watch is Wake County which contains Raleigh. Obama needs to carry the county by about ten points if he wants to win North Carolina. There are alot of well educated people and African Americans in that county. Also an important place to boost the turnout would be in Durham. Obama would need to carry Forsyth County which contains Winston Salem. If he carries that county, he wins the state. Bush won it by nine points last time but the county has a large African American population. Another really important county where Obama needs to win by ten points or more is Mecklenberg County where Charlotte is located. There is a large African American population there and communities of white liberals. McCain should do well in the western part of the state except for Asheville which Obama must carry. A place to watch should be southeastern North Carolina to see if Obama is able to keep down McCain's margins there.

For Ohio, what really should be watched is how well is Obama doing in Franklin County, who is winning Hamilton County, how large are Obama's margins in the Manhoning Valley. For Florida, who is winning Hillsborough County, how large are Obama's margins on the Gold Coast, how is McCain doing in the northern part of the state. In North Carolina, is Obama running well in Wake, Forsyth, Buncombe and Mecklenberg counties, how is McCain doing in the southeastern part of the state. Watch these things to see who wins.
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