Key Counties to Watch on the March 15th Primaries

The  Super Tuesday 2.0 is here and there are 691 delegates at stake. As  my friend calls it, “Significant Tuesday.” This is a chance for Hillary to secure her 200+ pledged delegate lead or for Sanders to prolong the race. Pundits expect Clinton to win Florida and North Carolina easily while Ohio, Illinois and Missouri should be close (although a few pundits say Sanders will win Missouri). Here are the key counties and regions to watch while the results unfold (on the Democratic side only).

Florida:

Florida is expected to go strongly for Hillary Clinton. The RCP polling average shows Hillary with a  29 point lead. The three main regions are: Gold Coast, I-4 Corridor and outstate Florida.  Hillary should perform well in outstate, mainly because of the high African American population in northern Florida, the elderly voters in the Villages and the wealthy voters on the southwest coast of Florida. She is also expected to do well in  the Gold Coast (Miami) with the high Hispanic, African American and elderly populations. Counties Sanders can try to score an upset:

Alachua County: the University of Florida is here but a  high African American population is here as well. This county will be close.

Counties north of Tampa: counties such as Pasco, Hernando and Citrus are heavily white and not as wealthy as the southwest coast of Florida. These have similar demographics to counties Bernie won in Michigan (and Midwestern transplants). At the same time, the percentage of elderly voters here is almost the highest in the nation so it is likely Bernie cannot even win here.

North Carolina:

This is another state where Hillary is expected to perform well, this time with a 24 point lead in the RCP average. Hillary should perform well in the eastern part of the state due to the high African American population. She should do well in the urban areas of  Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte as well. If Bernie wins a few counties, he needs to perform well in:

Western North Carolina: this is Appalachia with a low African American population but as shown in Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia, Hillary wins southern rural white voters.

Durham and Orange Counties: Duke and UNC are here but so are high African American populations.

Charlotte suburbs: Gaston and Union Counties  voted for Hillary by narrow margins in 08. These are heavily white and upscale suburban counties. If Bernie wants to make inroads among the upscale voters he needs to win these.

Ohio:

Here we go to our first  swing state of the evening. The RCP average has Hillary with an 8 point lead but after Michigan, it is highly unlikely that the Clinton folks are taking any chances. Ohio though will probably not be a Michigan repeat because Independents are represented in these polls. Also, Michigan has only one large urban area, Ohio however has:

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): this county is the center of Ohio’s Democratic base. Obama won here by 260,000 votes in 2008, Kerry won here by 227,000  votes in 2004. It is about 30% African American. Hillary will need those votes and if she wins Cuyahoga County with a margin of 57% or higher, she will probably win statewide. Obama won 54% here with his 8 point loss in 2008.

Franklin County: (Columbus) Franklin County used to be a swing county (Gore won by a few point) but as shown in 2012 (Obama won it by 20) it has become strongly Democratic. It is the 2nd most populous county in Ohio (after Cuyahoga). Obama won 56% here but expect Hillary to do worse because while there is a large African American population (20% of the county), there is a large population of college students as well. There are upscale Democrats  too so Hillary should win (although narrowly). If she loses, expect a good night for Bernie.

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Hamilton is the 3rd most populated county in Ohio and it was also Obama’s best. With a low number of white Democrats and a 23% African American population, Hillary  should aim to at least match Obama’s percentages in the low 60s.

Lucas County (Toledo): Toledo is a smaller city (Lucas County has roughly 480k people) and Obama lost it by 5 points in 2008 but Hillary should win here. The reason is that she lost Monroe County, Michigan (which borders Toledo) by only one point and Monroe County has a lower African American population than Lucas County does. It depends how big the Hillary win is here though.

Summit County (Akron): this is a county to watch. It has a 13% African American population and a large number of working class union voters who may lean Sanders. Hillary can probably win Ohio without Summit county but if she wins it, Bernie cannot win.

Sanders should do well in the rural part of the state, but Hillary can make a play for:

Southeast Ohio: this is a heavily white and rural area. Hillary though showed that she can win Appalachian voters on March 1st so if she can win northern Appalachian voters and score some surprise wins in rural areas, this is the area to watch. It  voted heavily for her in 08.

Illinois:

This is another close state. Despite a high African American population (15%), a large number of upscale voters and high Obama popularity, Illinois could be a tough state for Hillary. The RCP average has her winning by 2.3 points and the trusty PPP poll has her leading by 3. Here are the key counties to watch:

Cook County (Chicago): nearly half of the state’s Democratic votes live here. Hillary wants a large margin from the south side with its high African American population. She also wants to do well in northern Cook County with upscale Democrats near Evanston similar to the upscale Dems in Massachusetts that helped her win there. Sanders though is making a play for Hispanics, young African Americans and working class voters. He also is tying Hillary to the unpopular mayor Rahm Emanuel.  If Hillary wins Cook County by 5 points or less, she should be worried.

Lake County: is Hillary winning upscale voters? Look no further than Lake County which is north of Cook County, is upscale and suburban. I was phone banking for Hillary here and found mostly Hillary supporters but I do not know how they targeted the voters. Hillary will also look to do well in other upscale areas such as McHenry and DuPage. If she loses Lake County though and gets a five point or lower win in Cook, she will lose Illinois.

Downstate: this is rural Illinois and Sanders needs large margins in the rural areas to win. Hillary though could try to score some upsets in:

-St. Clair/Madison Counties: these are St. Louis suburbs with some heavily African American areas.

-Sangamon County: this is Springfield which also has some heavily African American neighborhoods.

-Pulaski County: this county is 30% African American and at the southern tip of Illinois. This was the only part of Illinois Hillary won in 08 so watch her try to repeat her win there.

Missouri:

This is the state Sanders has the best chance to win. With the state being only 11% African American and having a large white working class population, this is tough terrain for Hillary. PP has  Sanders winning by one point. Nate Silver says Hillary has a 54% chance of winning here.

St. Louis City: African Americans are about half the population here but there are many younger white Democrats as well. Hillary should win here but if her  margin is under 60% she should be concerned.

St. Louis County: with upscale voters, a 20% African American population and Ferguson, Hillary should win here. She also needs to keep her percentage above 60%. Obama won 63% here in his narrow Missouri win.

Jackson County (Kansas City): although there is an African American population in the 20s here, it is more working class and borders Kansas where Bernie performed well. If Hillary loses this county, she is in trouble.

Rural Missouri: although Hillary won rural Iowa on the Missouri border, that may have been more due to her ground game. Sanders should perform well in this part of the state. Hillary though can score some wins in rural counties in southeastern Missouri which border her husband’s home state Arkansas and a few counties in southeast Missouri such as New Madrid have  significant African American populations as well.

Illinois Primary Preview

After his wins in Mississippi and Alabama, Rick Santorum hopes to firmly establish himself as the conservative alternative to Romney by winning a state that conventional wisdom suggests should be safe for Romney. That state would be Illinois which has its primary on March 20th. Illinois not only has a large delegate prize of 54 delegates awarded on election day (Illinois has 69 delegates but only 54 are awarded based on the results of the March 20th primary,) but also appeared to be safe for Romney until recently when Santorum started to campaign there. Romney has a more than 300 delegate lead in the delegate count and to cut into Romney's lead, Santorum needs to win as many states as he can. Some upcoming states such as New York and New Jersey appear to be strong Romney states because of the large groups of socially moderate Republicans there. Illinois at first appears to resemble those states because like New Jersey and New York, Illinois has a large metropolitan area (Chicagoland, the 3rd largest metropolitan area in the nation,) which would suggest Illinois has a large population of moderate Republicans and would therefore vote for Romney. As Bill Brady's (R) one point loss shows though in the gubernatorial race against incumbent Pat Quinn (D), the conservative base in Illinois is still strong. Brady was against embryonic stem cell research, a woman's right to choose even in cases of rape and incest and he even supported legislation that would prevent pharmacists to refuse to dispense emergency contraception. Brady's platform was extremely far right on social issues and yet he still lost by one point, showing that the social conservative base in Illinois is very strong and if Santorum can capitalize on it, he can win. This post will discuss the three distinct regions of Illinois, describe their demographics and voting habits and highlight which candidate I expect to win there and why.

Here is a map of Illinois with dark blue representing Cook County, yellow representing the suburban "Collar Counties" and gray representing Downstate.

(Map courtesy of U.S Census quick facts.)

Cook County:
Cook County contains the city of Chicago, its close in suburbs which represent a bit over 40% of Illinois's population. In the Democratic primaries, the Cook County vote is crucial and casts more than half of the votes. The 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial primary shows the power of Cook County. Incumbent Pat Quinn (D) won 54% in Cook County, only won a handful of counties outside of Cook County and lost downstate by more than 20%. Quinn still won though because although percentagewise his Cook County margin was not overwhelming, the margin was large enough because of the number of votes in Cook County. In the Republican primary though, the Cook County vote is less crucial. Cook County’s percent of the Republican statewide vote is close to 25%. This is good news for Santorum because Cook County's Republicans are not likely to strongly support him. Most of the Cook County Republicans are middle to upper middle class, well educated and socially moderate. Statewide, Cook County is the Democratic base with its large numbers of African Americans, Hispanics, college students, Jewish voters and upscale liberals in the Evanston area so Republicans never win Cook County in the general election. In the Republican primary though, what Romney needs to do is win by more than 20 points here so he can offset Santorum's margins in the rest of the state. Romney should do well here due to the extremely low number of social conservatives here. Santorum may receive some support from the Illinois 3rd congressional district which represents western Chicago and some suburbs nearby but the votes Santorum receives from there should be nowhere near enough to offset Romney's support throughout the rest of Cook County. Also, based on my experience monitoring election returns, Cook County almost always reports early and should give a Romney lead early but the lead should narrow as less pro Romney areas Downstate report late.

Collar Counties:
These counties contain the rapidly growing Chicago suburbs and exurbs. Political pundits refer to them as the "Collar Counties" because they seem to form a collar around Cook County. Many of the residents are middle class to upper middle class families who left Chicago in the 2nd half of the 20th Century and work in the private sector. Most of the voters are well educated too. The inner counties include DuPage and Lake Counties while the outer and generally fast growing counties include McHenry, Kane, Kendall, Kankakee, Grundy, DeKalb and Will Counties. They were once all heavily Republican, DuPage County voted 68% for George Bush Sr. in 1988 but these counties have trended more Democratic in recent years as the Republicans moved right on social issues. George W. Bush only won 54% in DuPage County in 2004. The Collar Counties though have not trended left as much as the suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City have though, suggesting there are some social conservatives in the Collar Counties but enough social moderates to provide a delicate balance between the two groups. Although the inner suburbs of Lake County along Lake Michigan are more socially moderate, more wealthy and more educated and therefore should support Romney, the further inland one drives, the more socially conservative the voters become as a general rule. Rick Santorum therefore needs to win the exurban swing counties of McHenry and Kane Counties if he wants to win statewide. The 2008 Republican Presidential primary in Illinois paints a strong picture. McCain, the moderate candidate won 47% of the vote statewide, winning an outright majority in Lake and DuPage Counties but performing poorly in the exurban areas of McHenry and Kane Counties. During election night, watch the fast growing Kendall and Kankakee Counties which were formerly rural but are quickly being converted into suburbs (Kendall was the nation's fastest growing county with a population above 10,000 people from 2000 to 2010.) Santorum needs to run up the numbers there if he wants to keep it close or pull off an upset win.

Downstate Illinois:
This part of Illinois is everything outside of Chicago and its suburbs. It is very crucial because it cast around 47% of the Republican Presidential Primary vote in 2008, despite having less than 40% of the state's population. Downstate is mostly composed of rural farming areas and a few small cities such as Peoria, East St. Louis and Decatur. The voters here are farmers, working class and more socially conservative. This is the Republican base in the state which produced conservatives such as Brady. Even Obama only carried Downstate 51%-48% in the 2008 general election, despite hailing from Illinois and being popular there. Downstate is fertile territory for Santorum because of the large number of socially conservative rural voters there.  It is very possible for Santorum to win the small cities such as Peoria and Decatur because although Romney usually appeals to urban voters, these cities have very conservative Republicans and cities with similar demographics in Ohio such as Springfield and Lima voted for Santorum. Watch for some Romney wins though in Madison and St. Clair Counties (St. Louis metropolitan area,) due to the suburban voters there but as Santorum's sweep of the St. Louis metropolitan area during the Missouri primary proved, St. Louis metropolitan area Republicans are definitely open to voting for him. If Romney wins by Illinois by double digits though, he should win in some of the small cities such as Rock Island and Peoria. If Santorum wants to win statewide, he needs to win by at least 15 points Downstate.

Overall, most polls suggest a Romney win (the RCP Poll average as of Saturday, March 17th show Romney +6.) I therefore expect Romney to win but as the Ohio and Mississippi polls showed, Romney's lead sometimes is overstated so we should not count out Santorum completely. For example,  exit polls showed +6 for Romney and Mississippi +2 for Romney (polls a few days before the election mostly showed similar leads) but Romney won Ohio by only 1 point and lost Mississippi by 2. Although Romney's lead should be too large to overcome, Santorum could make it close and therefore be able to stay in the race. For Santorum to perform well, he needs to keep Romney's margin in Cook County below 20 points, win more votes than Romney does in the Collar Counties and win at least a low double digit margin Downstate. Illinois is a representation of the United States in a way because of how it represents the U.S's demographics. There are large communities of African Americans, Hispanics, upscale liberals, suburban voters, rural evangelical voters and farmers. Illinois will therefore give an important signal to the Republicans about how the U.S Republicans view their candidates and could either keep Santorum's campaign alive or reinforce Romney's image as the inevitable nominee.

How Pat Quinn Wins

A Quick note: this is my first post in a long time that focuses on race analysis without too many demographics. I used to have posts similar to this one in 2008 and early 2009 but I stopped because the horse race world was quiet. Now that election day is coming closer, I will do race analysis posts similar to my 2008 ones. Also, I will soon bring back the Senatorial and Gubernatorial rankings. Now onto the post:

In Illinois, Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached in early 2009 because he tried to sell Obama's Senate seat. Pat Quinn (D), the Lieutenant Governor replaced him. Now Quinn faces Downstate State Senator Bill Brady (R) who is very conservative. Brady won an upset by 200 votes in a crowded field in the February primary with big margins Downstate but he was crushed in the Chicagoland area. The campaign has barely started but Quinn is getting off to a poor start. Recently, he replaced his running mate Scott Lee Cohen (D) because Cohen was accused of domestic violence. The new candidate, Sheila Simon (D) is a professor from Downstate and yes, she is the daughter of the late Senator (not singer) Paul Simon (D). Although no poll have been released on this race since May 2nd, all polls show Brady with a high single digit or low double digit lead. Yes, Pat Quinn is behind but he can still pull off a win. Here is what he needs to do:

• Distance himself from Blagojevich as much as possible. To do this, he needs to highlight how he was isolated from the Governor and did not speak with him for all of 2008. Also, he needs to highlight how Blagojevich said Quinn was not a member of Blagojevich's administration in 2006.
• Highlight his ethical background: where he launched a panel to examine corruption in the University of Illinois. Also, he should highlight how he never used state money to pay for his trips, meals and hotel stays. If Pat Quinn wants to win, he needs to demonstrate he is not another corrupt Chicago politician.
• Make the race about Brady: Quinn needs to paint Brady as who really is; a downstate social conservative. He needs to run ads showing Brady wants to eliminate the State Board of Education and how Brady voted against increasing the minimum wage.
• Campaign hard in the suburbs: Quinn is from Chicago while Brady is from Bloomington which is Downstate. Brady should win almost every county (if not every county) in Downstate so Quinn needs to win as many suburban voters as possible.
• Highlight Brady's positions while campaigning in the suburbs: Quinn needs to highlight how Brady opposes abortion even in cases of rape and that Brady voted against a bill to ban gay discrimination not with marriage but in the workplace. Brady even voted against a bill to increase funding for stem cell research and supports teaching intelligent design. Brady even supports concealed handguns and Chicago is mostly pro gun control. These are the issues that made the suburbs trend towards the Democratis in the 1990's. Although the social issues will motivate Democrats to turn out and vote, Quinn should not get carried away because the main issue for voters is the economy and jobs. If he can make his campaign in the suburbs half about Brady's social issues but half about how Quinn will create jobs, Quinn should win.
• Do not bring up his tea parties unless they are absolutely necessary: in 1978, Quinn told people to send teabags to the current Illinois Governor due to state legislator pay raises. He could say he was one of the first real tea party people but this should depress Democratic turnout and Brady will win Downstate anyway.

Overall, Quinn should prove he is more connected to Chicagoland issues than Brady is but Quinn needs to define himself instead of being the "not Brady" candidate. Yes, Downstate is important and Democrats need to win in rural areas in states like Missouri to win elections. In Illinois though, Chicagoland has so many people so a Democrat can do well there, get crushed in Downstate but still win.

Please feel free to share your thoughts.