Key Counties to Watch in the New York Primary

On April 19th, the New York primary will take place. Donald Trump is expected to win on the Republican side but on the Democratic side, if Secretary Clinton wins here and she wins with a large margin (10% or more), she could solidify her position as the frontrunner and make her delegate lead nearly insurmountable in top of the media fallout that would have occurred if she were not victorious.

Sen. Sanders has had a string of wins and is hoping that if he wins New York, the win can generate momentum to carry California and then give him the imputes to persuade super delegates to support him. At the same time, Sen. Sanders  needs to win 56% of the remaining delegates and if he loses New York by more than 10 points, not only does the delegate deficit  become larger, he loses the momentum he needs for any success the campaign would have. The RCP polling average shows Secretary Clinton with a 14 point lead, showing  she is on track to win with the margin she needs.   Furthermore, one of the most demographically favorable states for him, Wisconsin went for him by 14 points, barely above the 12 point average he needs through the rest of the contest and not enough for any significant changes in the race for the nomination.

This article is  a county by county analysis showing which counties and demographic groups to watch on Election night.

Sen. Sanders’ strategy: Win crushing margins in Upstate, especially in the 21st district (near Vermont), keep Hillary’s margins in the New York City Boroughs low, win Manhattan and win Suffolk County. Also outperform the Teachout map (Zephyr Teachout  was a Progressive primary challenger for Governor Cuomo in 2014 and lost by 28 points but played well with white rural upstate voters).

Teachout vs. Cuomo Map:

Yellow = Cuomo

Green = Teachout

Secretary Clinton’s strategy: Win all five boroughs, win overwhelming margins  with African Americans and Latinos, win Suffolk County, win the Lower Hudson River Valley, win all major urban areas Upstate and surprise the pundits by winning some rural counties Teachout won.  

Predicted County Map for the New York Primary:

Dark Blue = Clinton

Light Blue = Sanders

Gray = Too close to Call/not enough information

New York City Boroughs:

Brooklyn:

Yes, Brooklyn may be famous for its hipsters and I am sure we all know which Democratic candidate  hipsters will back. At the same time, Brooklyn has a large African American population (34%) and a large Jewish population (23%). Many of those Jews are Orthodox and as shown by Hillary’s margins in heavily Jewish Palm Beach County in Florida, she is very popular with New York Jews. A Fox News poll also showed her with a 59%-35% lead among Jews, and it is probably higher with Orthodox Jewish population. While Sen. Sanders may play better with younger and more secular Jews in Manhattan, there are many Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn who should wind up voting for Clinton. My grandmother grew up in Brighton Beach so I have a genuine  connection to Brooklyn and have learned very much about the Brooklyn culture from her. Secretary Clinton won Brooklyn by under one point in 2008 vs. then Sen. Barack Obama despite performing poorly with the African American community.  With the added support from African Americans, Hillary should increase her margin and win Brooklyn with 58%-60% of the vote.  

Staten Island:

On paper, Staten Island should be Sen. Sanders country. It is white and working class. At the same time, it should support Secretary Clinton because many Democrats here are generally conservative and also, there is a growing minority population as well that would keep the Sanders numbers lower than anticipated.

Manhattan:

While Sen. Sanders may not win Manhattan, this is the borough he would have the best chance to win. The reason is that while many voters here may be the “limousine” liberals that would potentially vote for Sanders, there are large numbers of college students in NYU and Columbia that would vote with Sanders. Secretary Clinton will likely win Manhattan due to strong support from Harlem and Washington Heights (Manhattan has an 18% African American population and a 26% Hispanic population) but it could be close.

Queens:

Sen. Sanders may play better here than Brooklyn but the 21% African American and 28% Latino figures do not help him. Still I expect a tighter margin here than in Brooklyn (about 56%-57% for Secretary Clinton). The reason is that Queens is 25% Asian and Bernie has been shown to perform better with Asian voters than African American and Latino voters.

Bronx:

If Secretary Clinton’s margins with Puerto Ricans are similar to her Floridian margins with Puerto Ricans (many Floridian Puerto Ricans moved there from New York), expect a resounding performance here, with about 65% of the vote. If Sen. Sanders does better than expected  among Latinos (one poll shows a tie while others show Secretary Clinton leading with Latinos), expect a Secretary Clinton win but narrower (57%).

Suburban Counties:

Nassau County:

Attacking Wall Street works across most of the country but in Nassau County with cities such as Great Neck and Oyster Bay with large Wall Street populations, it definitely does not. Secretary Clinton should win Nassau County and having heavily African American Hempstead in the county does not hurt either (Nassau County is 13% African American).

Rockland County:

Despite being Jewish, Sen. Sanders has struggled to perform well with older and Orthodox Jewish voters (but plays better with secular, younger and Progressive Jews) as mentioned earlier. Due to the high Orthodox Jewish population in Rockland County with a 31% Jewish population (highest % of Jews in any county in the U.S), I would expect a solid victory for Secretary Clinton.

Suffolk County:

If Sen. Sanders wins one suburban county, it will be this one. The African American and Hispanic populations are lower here. There is also less wealth here than in Nassau County and many of the middle class south shore voters may be open to Sanders. If Sanders fails to win Suffolk County, expect a bad night for him.

Westchester County:

Besides being Secretary Clinton’s home as a Senator, Westchester County was almost made for her. Not only does it have a sizable African American and Latino population (16% and 24% respectively), it also has large number of wealthy white voters. Those voters are Secretary Clinton’s strength (as shown in the Massachusetts suburbs on Super Tuesday) so she should perform well here.

Upstate New York:

I expect Sen. Sanders to play  well here and win most of the central rural counties, due to the high number of progressive rural white voters and proximity to his home state Vermont (yes, I expect Secretary Clinton to lose “Clinton County” because it borders Vermont and has the demographic profile of counties Sen. Sanders wins). Secretary Clinton though has relationships in Upstate Counties and performed well in the 2008 primary. The NBC poll shows Sen. Sanders with a 1 point lead in Upstate, suggesting a close race here. The counties where Secretary Clinton can perform the best include:

Erie County (Buffalo):

On March 15th, Secretary Clinton surprised many pundits by not only winning Ohio but winning by 14 points and winning urban areas that faced large manufacturing job loss such as Cleveland and Toledo. Buffalo is similar demographically to many of those Ohio cities and Erie County has a 13% African American population, suggesting Secretary Clinton should play well here.

Albany County:

Due to the 12% African American population and large number of voters here involved in New York politics (New York politicians and political workers are firmly behind Secretary Clinton), I expect she will carry Albany County.

Monroe County (Rochester):

With the 16% African American population and similarity to Buffalo, Secretary Clinton  should win here as well.

Orange County:

This county is a fine boundary between Upstate and Downstate with a small population of Jewish voters, some Latinos (19%) and some African Americans (12%). I expect a Secretary Clinton  win here due to demographics and Orthodox Jews in places such as Kiryas Joel but the progressives here may keep it close for Sen. Sanders.

Other borderline Upstate/NYC Metro Counties: I expect Secretary Clinton to win Putnam County due to the high income level of the voters. The counties Bernie should win include Dutchess and Ulster (Secretary Clinton won Ulster by only 3 in 2008).

Conclusion:

Overall, I expect a 10%-15% win for Secretary Clinton in New York. Her ability to win demographic groups such as African Americans, Latinos and Jews will be extremely helpful here, as well as Bernie’s stalled momentum after the Daily News Interview, the delegate tie in Wyoming (most pundits expected a blowout there), and the “not qualified” comment he recently made.

Here is how I see New York Regionally:

Secretary Clinton will most likely win all five boroughs with the closest being Manhattan..

Secretary Clinton will win all the suburban counties with the possible exceptions of Suffolk and Orange Counties.

Secretary Clinton will lose in Central Upstate due to the Progressive streak and proximity to Vermont but may do well in Western New York (Buffalo, Rochester) due to the similarities to the voters she won in Ohio and relationships she previously built as Senator.

New York Fair Redistricting Map

The 2010 census results show New York losing two congressional seats. In 2000, New York also lost two congressional seats but they were both lost from Upstate New York while New York City and the suburbs lost no seats. This census, New York City will not be as lucky because growth has slowed there and New York City will lose one seat. Unlike in other solidly Democratic states such as Illinois and Maryland, Democrats do not control the redistricting trifecta. They control the Governorship and the State House but the Republicans control the State Senate 32-30. The Republicans control the State Senate due to a gerrymander that protects popular incumbents and places heavily Democratic areas into a few districts. Many Republican incumbents represent Democratic areas but they win because they are familiar with the voters. For example, Long Island leans Democratic and all of its Senate seats are represented by Republicans. The deciding race was a Democratic Buffalo Senate seat where Mark Gristiani (R) won because the Democratic incumbent had scandals and the Democrats should probably obtain the seat in 2012. Since redistricting control is split though, a compromise map is the most likely scenario with one Democratic district being eliminated and one Republican district being eliminated. Also, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) stated he wants to see a fair map. I decided to draw a fair map for New York with lines designed to protect communities of interest, not incumbents. When I drew the maps, I did not consider the homes or the needs of the districts' incumbents. Also, my map helps keep districts competitive so representatives will have to work to ensure reelection. The first district I chose to eliminate was Bob Turner's (R) 9th district which did not combine communities of interest by combining Forest Hills in Central Queens with Sheepshead Bay in Brooklyn. The second district I eliminated was Maurice Hinchey's 22nd district in Upstate New York which combined Newburgh along the Hudson River with Cornell University in Central Upstate New York. After drawing the map, I checked the partisan numbers and there are 16 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic seats, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 4 Tossup seats, 1 Lean Republican seat, and 2 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here is a link to the current New York maps: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NY

 New York State

Long Island

New York's 1st Congressional District: Timothy Bishop (D) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 54.6%, McCain 44.5%
Average: Dem 56.6%, Rep 43.4%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics 18+: 6.3% African American, 17.9% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 1st district becomes more Democratic as it swaps Republican leaning Smithtown for heavily Democratic Brentwood and Islip. The district also loses a few precincts along the South Coast to the 3rd district which is a South Coast based district. Anyway, the 1st district combines communities of interest by keeping eastern Long Island in one district. As for Bishop, he won an extremely close race in 2010, a very Republican year in his 52% Obama district. With the district becoming a few points more Democratic though, Bishop should win in a Democratic or neutral year.

New York's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Israel (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 54.8%, McCain 44.4%
Average: Dem 56.4%, McCain 43.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 6.0% Asian, 14.5% Hispanic, 68.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district loses all of its territory on the South Coast as it becomes a more North Coast and central Long Island based district. It gains Glen Cove and Smithtown. It also gains more of Nassau County by gaining Hicksville. The 2nd district becomes more Republican too though by losing heavily Democratic Islip and Brentwood. Although the district is a point more Republican, Israel should win because he is a strong fundraiser as the DCCC chairman and he is popular.

New York's 3rd Congressional District: Peter King (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 46.5%, McCain 52.6%
Average: Dem 50.1%, Rep 49.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 8.9% Hispanic, 84.1% White
Status: Safe Republican, Lean Republican when King retires

The 3rd congressional district combines communities of interest by becoming centered on Long Island's south shore, extending from the Queens border to Patchogue in Suffolk County. The 3rd congressional district combines these Republican leaning middle class areas along the South Shore while losing its finger onto the North Shore. The district leans Republican and Peter King is extremely popular on the South Shore, winning large majorities in even the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. King should even be stronger in this South Shore centered district. When he retires, the district may be competitive but the 52.6% McCain number will probably keep it in Republican hands.

New York's 4th Congressional District: Carolyn McCarthy (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 57.2%, McCain 42.1%
Average: Dem 58.4%, Rep 41.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 41%
Demographics 18+: 11.6% African American, 12.2% Asian, 15.0% Hispanic, 59.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district undergoes major changes although it retains the Hempstead area. It becomes one point more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic Valley Stream and North Valley Stream to the majority African American 6th district. The 4th district also loses East Meadow to the 3rd district. To compensate for the loss of these areas, I added the Great Neck area from the current 5th district. I also added Bellaire and Glen Oaks in Queens into the district. These changes keep the Obama number at 57% which should be high enough to protect McCarthy.

New York's 5th Congressional District: Gary Ackerman (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.9%
Average: Dem 66.2%, Rep 33.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 32.9% Asian, 16.3% Hispanic, 44.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district loses all of its Nassau County territory and is completely located in Queens. It retains Flushing but loses heavily Hispanic Corona to the Hispanic majority 9th district. To compensate for the loss of Nassau County and Corona, the 5th district gains some territory from the current 9th district. The 5th district gains Forest Hills, Kew Gardens and Middle Village. The 5th district combines communities of interest by representing working class areas in northern Queens. It also helps break up the 9th district which places Forest Hills in the same district as Sheepshead Bay in Brooklyn. The new map though places Forest Hills with other nearby neighborhoods in Queens that have similar interests. As for the partisan composition of the district, the 62% Obama number should be enough to elect a Democrat. Bob Turner (R) who represents the 9th district should not be able to overcome the district's Democratic lean. Also, the district's 32.9% Asian population gives an Asian candidate a chance to win when Ackerman retires.

Queens/Brooklyn

New York's 6th Congressional District: Gregory Meeks (D) vs. Bob Turner (R) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 86.0%, McCain 13.7%
Average: Dem 87.0%, Rep 13.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 89%, McCain 11%
Demographics 18+: 50.2% African American, 10.8% Asian, 17.5% Hispanic, 14.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district actually lost population during the 2000s and was less than 50% Black by the end of the decade so it had to gain population in order to boost the African American percentage over 50% to respect the Voting Rights Act. The 6th district adds conservative parts of the Rockaway Peninsula, gains African American areas in Valley Stream, North Valley Stream and Brooklyn in order to remain above 50% African American. Rep. Bob Turner's (R) home on the Rockaway Peninsula is added to the 6th district but I doubt he would run in an 86% Obama district. The district combines communities of interest by representing heavily African American areas in and near southern Queens. Meeks should have no trouble winning in this heavily Democratic district.

New York's 7th Congressional District: Joseph Crowley (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 82.1%, McCain 17.2%
Average: Dem 83.1%, Rep 16.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 79%, McCain 20%
Demographics 18+: 20.0% African American, 9.7% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 30.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district undergoes changes as it loses the Elmhurst area and gains Astoria. These changes take Crowley's home out of the district but he will probably run here because the new 7th district contains most of his current district in the Bronx. As for communities of interest, I did not want to combine Astoria and the eastern Bronx but I had to for population reasons.

New York's 8th Congressional District Jerrold Nadler (D) SlateBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 75.4%, McCain 23.7%
Average: Dem 78.8%, Rep 21.2%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Demographics 18+: 25.4% Asian. 21.0% Hispanic, 47.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 8th district becomes more Brooklyn centered as it loses the Wall Street area and Chelsea areas. It gains Chinatown and follows the Brooklyn shore of the East River to the Queens border. This district represents communities of interest by combining mostly white areas in Brooklyn. Nadler may want more of Manhattan in this district but the district is heavily Democratic so he should win easily.

New York's 9th Congressional District: Nydia Velazquez (D) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 81.3%, McCain 18.0%
Average: Dem 83.7%, Rep 16.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 86%, McCain 13%
Demographics 18+: 20.3% Asian, 53.0% Hispanic, 18.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Nydia Velazquez's home is also moved from the 9th district but I expect her to run here because it contains most of her current district and is Hispanic majority. The 9th district is the renumbered 12th district, which loses the Bush Terminal area and gains Corona and Elmhurst in Queens. These changes increase the Hispanic 18+ population to 53% which should be high enough to protect Nydia Velazquez from a primary challenge from a non Hispanic candidate. The district also combines communities of interest by representing heavily Hispanic areas in Brooklyn and Queens.

New York's 10th Congressional District: Edolphus Towns (D) Deep Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 78.1%, McCain 21.5%
Average: Dem 81.0%, Rep 19.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 91%, McCain 9%
Demographics 18+: 50.6% African American, 11.9% Hispanic, 29.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 10th district lost Bedford-Stuyvesant to the 11th district. To compensate for the loss, the 10th district gains Brownsville, Marine Park and Sheepshead Bay. These changes make the district more Republican and white. Although the mostly white areas of Sheepshead Bay may not have many commonalities with heavily African American neighborhoods such as Canarsie, these areas had to be combined in order to allow the 11th district to also maintain its African American majority status. If the African American population in Brooklyn continues to drop though, Brooklyn may lose one of its two African American majority districts.

New York's 11th Congressional District: Yvette Clarke (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 88.9%, McCain 10.7%
Average: Dem 89.3%, Rep 10.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 91%, McCain 9%
Demographics 18+: 52.1% African American, 17.3% Hispanic, 23.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 11th district gains Bedford-Stuyvesant from the 10th district while losing Brownsville and East Flatbush to the 10th district. The 11th district also gains heavily Republican Borough Park but the district still remains heavily Democratic at nearly 89% Obama.

New York's 12th Congressional District: Michael Grimm (R) Cornflower Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.4%
Average: Dem 52.9%, Rep 47.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Demographics 18+: 7.6% African American, 10.2% Asian, 14.4% Hispanic, 66.3% White
Status: Tossup

The 12th district (formerly the 13th district) retains communities of interest by representing Staten Island and Brooklyn neighborhoods with large white populations but undergoes a few changes. It gains Coney Island and Brighton Beach while losing Bensonhurst to the 8th district. These changes make the 12th district two points more Democratic and Obama barely won the new district. These changes may convince Michael McMahon (D), the district's former representative to run for the seat.

Manhattan/Bronx
New York's 13th Congressional District: Carolyn Maloney (D) Dark Salmon
Presidential Data: Obama 82.0%, McCain 17.0%
Average: Dem 78.4%, Rep 21.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Demographics 18+: 13.1% Asian, 9.5% Hispanic, 71.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 13th district loses all of Astoria and represents communities of interest by representing Manhattan instead of being split between Queens and Manhattan. It represents all of lower Manhattan except for the Chinatown area up to 82nd St. and 84th St. on the Upper East Side. On the Upper West Side, the 13th district extends up to 83rd St. I wanted to combine all of the Upper West Side and the Upper East Side into the same district because they are communities of interest by mostly being populated by high income white voters. The district could not combine them all though for population reasons. Anyway, Carolyn Maloney should have no trouble winning this heavily Democratic district. She may face a primary from Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) who represents the current 8th district which represents west Manhattan up to 89th St. but he will probably run in the 8th district which lacks an incumbent and contains some of his current territory.

New York's 14th Congressional District: Charlie Rangel (D) Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 90.2%, McCain 9.1%
Average: Dem 88.2%, Rep 11.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 93%, McCain 6%
Demographics 18+: 22.9% African American, 35.1% Hispanic, 34.3% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 14th district (formerly the 15th district,) undergoes a few changes as it loses heavily Hispanic Washington Heights for population reasons. The 14th district gains precincts in the Upper West and East Sides extending to 82nd St. and 84th St. in the Upper East Side and 83rd St. in the Upper West Side. These changes bring the district's white population up to 34%. Rangel has ethics problems and faced a recent tough primary from New York City Councilman Adam Clayton Powell IV (D). Although the district's changes are small, they increase the white population in the district to 34% which gives a strong base for a white candidate to challenge Rangel in the primary.

New York's 15th Congressional District: Jose Serrano (D) Dark Orange
Presidential Data: Obama 94.4%, McCain 5.3%
Average: Dem 95.5%, Rep 4.5%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Demographics 18+: 26.5% African American, 66.5% Hispanic, 3.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The only change this district undergoes is the addition of heavily Hispanic Washington Heights in Manhattan. Besides this change, the district remains heavily Democratic and Hispanic.

Westchester County

New York's 16th Congressional District Eliot Engel (D) vs. Nita Lowey (D) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 70.9%, McCain 28.5%
Average: Dem 69.3%, Rep 30.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 72%, McCain 28%
Demographics 18+: 26.7% African American, 24.9% Hispanic, 41.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 16th district represents communities of interest by combining northern parts of the Bronx such as Riverdale with southern Westchester County suburbs such as Yonkers and New Rochelle. The 16th district does combine the homes of incumbent Eliot Engel (D) of the 17th district and Nita Lowey (D) of the 18th district. The new 17th district representing Rockland and north Westchester Counties though leans Democratic and is open so one of the incumbents may decide to run there. More of Lowey's territory is in the new 17th district than Engel's so she may run there.

New York's 17th Congressional District: Vacant Dark Slate Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 58.6%, McCain 40.6%
Average: Dem 60.2%, Rep 39.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 38%
Demographics 18+: 9.1% African American, 15.3% Hispanic, 68.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 17th district combines communities of interest by combining Rockland County and northern Westchester County which are connected by the Tappan Zee Bridge. The district represents upscale suburbs on both sides of the Hudson. Nita Lowey (D) may decide to run here to avoid a primary challenge with Eliot Engel (D) in the 16th district. The district voted almost 59% for Obama which should be high enough to protect her against a strong Republican candidate. Rockland County is trending Republican though so the district may become more competitive but Westchester County is also trending Democratic.

Upstate New York
New York's 18th Congressional District: Nan Hayworth (R) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 52.5%, McCain 46.4%
Average: Dem 54.9%, McCain 45.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 9.0% African American, 14.4% Hispanic, 72.1% White
Status: Tossup

Although the district loses most of Westchester County and shifts north, it becomes 3 points more Democratic by gaining Newburgh and some precincts in Democratic Ulster County. The district also continues to combine communities of interest by representing small cities and rural areas along the mid Hudson Valley. The current 22nd district combined Newburgh with Cornell University in central New York so the new 18th district gains it and helps unite the Hudson River communities. The district's slight shift to the Democrats makes this district more competitive and it could shift to the Democrats in a Democratic year.

New York's 19th Congressional District: Chris Gibson (R) Yellow Green
Presidential Data: Obama 53.3%, McCain 45.1%
Average: Dem 54.1%, Rep 45.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 88.3% White
Status: Tossup

Previously, the Catskills were split between the 22nd and 20th districts but this map unites the Catskills into the 19th district which also represents rural communities along the Hudson Valley. The district becomes a few points more Democratic with the addition of Ulster County along the Hudson River. The district also retains communities on the Upper Hudson such as part of Warren County where former Rep. Scott Warren (D) lives. He lost to Chris Gibson in 2010 so he may seek a rematch under lines a couple of points more Democratic. The 53% Obama number makes this district a swing district that should swing Democratic in a Democratic year and Republican in a Republican year. It is possible Maurice Hinchey (D) will run here because his home of Saugerties of Ulster County is in this district. He may choose the more Democratic 21st district instead though.

New York's 20th Congressional District: Paul Tonko (D) Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 58.2%, McCain 40.0%
Average: Dem 59.3%, Rep 40.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Demographics 18+: 7.6% African American, 83.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 20th district gains most of Saratoga County but remains Democratic leaning and centered around the Albany metropolitan area. Paul Tonko should have no trouble winning here.

West Upstate New York

New York's 21st Congressional District: Ann Marie Buerkle (R) Maroon
Presidential Data: Obama 59.7%, McCain 38.5%
Average: Dem 60.2%, Rep 39.8%
Old Presidential Data: (formerly the 25th) Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 84.2% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 21st district represents cities in Central New York by combining Auburn, Syracuse and Ithaca. The 21st also loses more rural areas such as Wayne County. These changes make the 21st district a few points more Democratic. The Democratic shift will endanger Buerkle because she won by only 0.3% in 2010 against Rep. Dan Maffei (D) and the district has added new Democratic territory. Dan Maffei may challenge Buerkle and with the district's new Democratic territory, he should win.

New York's 22nd Congressional District: Bill Owens (D) Sienna
Presidential Data: Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.4%
Average: Dem 53.7%, Rep 46.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics 18+: 92.0% White
Status: Tossup

Due to low population growth, the 22nd district needs to expand. It becomes a bit more Republican as it gains Republican leaning Montgomery County and parts of Republican leaning Oneida and Herkimer Counties. Bill Owens faced a strong challenge last year so he will probably face another difficult race in 2012. The northern New York rural counties Bill Owens represent though are trending Democratic, especially the counties on the Vermont border so Owens should slowly become safer.

New York's 23rd Congressional District: Richard Hanna (R) Aquamarine
Presidential Data: Obama 49.3%, McCain 48.8%
Average: Dem 50.9%, Rep 49.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 90.3% White
Status: Lean Republican

The 23rd district represents more rural areas in Upstate New York and the small cities of Rome, Utica and Binghamton. Although Obama barely won the district, the district should lean Republican because the area usually votes Republican for local offices. In a Democratic year though, this district could become competitive.

New York's 24th Congressional District: Tom Reed (R) Indigo
Presidential Data: Obama 45.3%, McCain 53.2%
Average: Dem 46.3%, Rep 53.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Demographics 18+: 93.4% White
Status: Safe Republican

Instead of combining Rochester suburbs with rural counties on the Pennsylvania border, Tom Reed's district now combines rural counties on the Pennsylvania border with other rural counties in west Upstate New York. Also, the district becomes a couple of points more Republican, keeping it safe for Tom Reed.

New York's 25th Congressional District: Louise Slaughter (D) Pale Violet Red
Presidential Data: Obama 58.6%, McCain 40.1%
Average: Dem 59.4%, Rep 40.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 30%
Demographics 18+: 13.2% African American, 76.0% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Instead of dividing Monroe County (Rochester) into four districts, it is divided into two districts with the 25th district being located entirely within Monroe County. The 25th district represents Rochester and its suburbs. Rep. Louise Slaughter's district currently combines inner city Buffalo and Rochester but those cities are unique and need different representatives to effectively represent their interests so I split them into different districts. Louise Slaughter will probably run here because her home is in the 25th district. Her district has become more Republican but the 58.6% Obama number should be strong enough to protect her. Also, it should help a Democrat win this district if she retires but in a Republican year, Republicans could run a competitive campaign.

Buffalo area

New York's 26th Congressional District: Kathy Hochul (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 52.6%, McCain 45.8%
Average: Dem 48.8%, Rep 51.2%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 8.8% African American, 84.6% White
Status: Lean Democratic

The 26th district resembles former Rep. John LaFalce's (D) district in the 1990s as it gains all of Niagara County and Democratic leaning northern Erie County. These changes boost the Obama numbers in the district from 46% to 52.6%, strengthening Hochul although Republicans should be very competitive here in a Republican year. Hochul is a strong campaigner though so the Republicans should not underestimate her.

New York's 27th Congressional District: Brian Higgins (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 55.6%, McCain 42.7%
Average: Dem 51.0%, Rep 49.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 83.4% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 27th district combines the southern part of the Buffalo area. It also becomes a bit more Democratic as it gains more of inner city Buffalo. Higgins already seemed safe in this district due to his strong performance in 2010 and he becomes even safer. Although the Democratic average suggests this district is closely divided, the reason the Republican average percentage is high is that 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino (R) overperformed in Erie County (his home area) and increased Republican turnout.

New York Redistricting Map

Long Island

New York City

Westchester County and vicinity

Upstate New York

Western Upstate New York

Buffalo/Rochester area

The 2010 census will be here shortly and that is when legislators redistrict congressional districts. There is this tool called Dave's Redistricting App that lets you create maps of the new congressional districts. Dave's Redistricting App now has partisan data for New York! New York has 29 U.S House seats and New York is expected to lose one due to slow population growth. There are currently 27 Democrats and 2 Republicans representing New Yorkers in Congress. I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation and he represents Buffalo and Rochester suburbs. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in western Suffolk County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district's heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa's (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama's performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. "Important areas" refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Here are some helpful links:
For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Congressional_Districts

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_york_map.html
Where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island
1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson, Patchouge and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is alot safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village vs. Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Change: Obama -7

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King's current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel's district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 181,941 57%, McCain 137,845 42%

Demographics: 17% African American, 11% Hispanic and 68%White Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47% Change: Obama +20

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, Seaford, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains his home and large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district's new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,592 55%, McCain 140,394 44%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian and 72% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -6

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but it was the best I could give her. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60's for Obama. McCarthy might dislike getting used to her new territory but it is only a few points less Democratic from her old district should she should be safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36%
Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley's district that the 5th has is Crowley's home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 193,857 81%, McCain 43,718 18%
Demographics: 50% African American, 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 18% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%
Change: Obama -15

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district's number are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district, he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,916 84%, McCain 26,857 15%
Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Change: Obama +10

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City's growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district's votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York's 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 134,644 65%, McCain 69,317 34%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 20%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -17

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler's home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 124,137 63%, McCain 71,713 36%

Demographics: 10% African American, 17% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 54% White Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44%
Change: Obama +16

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama's percentage here from 55% to 63% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 10%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 185,755 84%, McCain 34,960 15%

Demographics: 51% African American, 16% Hispanic and 25% White Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to protect it. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 199,766 90%, McCain 20,258 9%

Demographics: 57% African American, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 20% White. Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 154,211 85%, McCain 26,156 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White. Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters levels. I barely kept Velazquez's home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 239,860 80%, McCain 56,360 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler's home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 219,782 92%, McCain 18,728 7%

Demographics: 35% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 158,103 94%, McCain 10,173 5% Demographics: 27% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%
Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano's district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,893 61%, McCain 105,865 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White. Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel's district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama's percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 188,392 61%, McCain 116,831 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey's district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

Upstate

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,336 55%, McCain 133,922 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,121 54%, McCain 145,588 44%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County help make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 179,619 54%, McCain 144,301 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schnectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama's percentage from the high 50's to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,175 54%, McCain 143,225 45%
Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa's home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa's district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,891 54%, McCain 125,010 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onodaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama's performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 162,838 54%, McCain 131,420 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48%

Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Onodaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama's margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama's performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates piling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,745 57%, McCain 136,803 42%
Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Onodaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, YatesMaffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei's home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 138,514 42%, McCain 183,587 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52%

Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 188,071 55%, McCain 146,218 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama's performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,743 61%, McCain 120,668 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30%

Change: Obama -16

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama's performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this plan? Do you have a redistricting plan or idea you want to share. Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.