Will Trump Hurt House Republicans?

Cross posted on racesandredistricting.blogspot.com which has more election analysis. 

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Recently, the cook political report updated its House race ratings and all ten races favored Democrats. Before mid March of 2016, most pundits assumed that Democrats could not take the House. Trump may be the nomiee  and can harm downballot Republican candidates with his hateful rhetoric. While the downballot Republicans may not make the statements themselves, many will endorse Trump for President and many may appear with him at rallies. One however has already implied that he will not endorse Trump and possibly even vote for Hillary. This representative, Carlos Cuebelo (R) represents FL-26, a Democratic leaning and heavily Hispanic district that he narrowly won in 2014. 

The main question is though how strong of an impact will Trump have on downballot races? My answer is that if his candidacy causes high Democratic turnout, it will. If Trump’s candidacy does not generate high turnout among Democrats but only causes Independents to switch, it will not. As shown in states such as Ohio, Virginia and New York, Democratic wave elections that rely on low propensity voters (infrequent voters) have stronger downballot effects than wave elections that rely on persuading Independents.  

1. Ohio in 2006: Ohio in 2006 is a prime example of how top of the ticket races that rely on persuading voters instead of turning out base voters do not help downticket. In 2006, Rep. Ted Strickland (D) won the Governorship with 60%. He won for a couple of reasons. One was that Strickland’s opponent, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell (R) was unpopular statewide. Strickland also ran touting his moderate roots and connection to Appalachia (he represented a congressional district in southeastern Ohio). At the same time, Democrats failed to make major gains in House  seats. They only gained one, Rep. Bob Ney’s (R) seat which could have been explained as the result of a scandal. 

Ohio 2006 Gubernatorial Election results (red and blue are switched) 

As shown by the 2006 exit polls, turnout among key groups such as African Americans, Democrats and young voters remained similar to 2004 but Independents backed Strickland by 43 points. Therefore, Republicans won House seats such as OH-15 which was located in the Columbus area and strongly backed Strickland. The reason the Republican won though was that the voters were not low propensity Democrats but regular voters who backed Republicans in the past (OH-15 supported Bush in 2004) and decided to stick with Republicans downballot. Columbus has a high number of  college students and African Americans so a high  turnout among those groups would be problematic for Republicans in this district. The same happened in OH-01 as well which voted for  Bush by 2 points in 2004. The district is located around Cinncinatti and has a high African American population (27%).  

In 2008 however, although Obama won by five points instead of 24 in Ohio, turnout was stronger among young voters, African Americans and Democrats. OH-15 flipped however with help from high turnout from African Americans and young voters in Franklin County (Columbus). OH-01 flipped as well. With high  African American turnout in Cinncinati, OH-01 flipped as well. 

2. 2008 Virginia: in 2008, President Obama won Virginia by seven points, thanks to high turnout among upscale liberals/Hispanics/Asians  in Northern Virginia, high turnout from African Americans in SE  VA and high turnout from college students in areas such as Charlottesville. It is no surprise that Democrats gained three House seats in Virginia in 2008 despite gaining none in  2006. Even though Democrats won on top of the ticket, Dems won on winning over Independents, not by turning out low propensity voters.  

In 2006, Democrats did win a Senate seat with Jim Webb (D) defeating  Sen. George Allen (R). Webb’s strategy though did not appear to rely on turning out low propensity voters but appeared to rely on winning over blue dog Democrats in SW VA with his moderate views and winning over upscale voters in NoVA due to Allen’s extremism. Allen called an Indian campaign  worker of Webb’s a “macaca” (a racial slur from North Africa). Webb used that to cause upscale voters who may have backed Bush in 2004 (Bush received 46% in Fairfax County, the main suburban county in NoVa), to switch to Webb (Allen won 40% of the Fairfax County vote). At the same time, those voters voted Republican downballot. Take VA-11 for example, it flipped in 2008 when Obama won it by 11 but its Republican incumbent won by 13 points. The reason is  that its incumbent, Tom Davis (R) was a moderate similar to many of the upscale voters who switched from Bush in 2004 to Webb in 2006. If Webb had brought out more low propensity Democrats though, they may have voted against Davis. 

2008 overall was a strong year for Democrats in Virginia. Besides Obama winning statewide by seven points, Democrats also gained VA-2 and VA-5. VA-2 was a district in the Hampton Roads with a sizable African American population that turned out to elect  a Democrat. VA-5 is a rural district with some  African Americans as well as young voters in Charlottesville. 

3. New York 2014: In 2010, Andrew Cuomo (D), then Gubernatorial candidate was thought to be facing a tough race (a poll showed him leading by only 6 points). Cuomo won by 28 points. Democrats however lost many House seats in New York, especially in Upstate. The reason is that although Cuomo may have won, he won by winning over enough center right voters. The Republican candidate, Carl Paladino (R) was in my opinion in a mini Donald Trump. Paladino told a reporter who asked him a tough question, “I’ll take you out!” Paladino then went on to compare being LGBT to being alcoholic. At his concession speech, Paladino also appeared to threaten newly elected Gov. Cuomo with a baseball bat. One can also make parallels between Paladino and Trump (they both made outlandish statements and both had a chance at winning for awhile) but that is a discussion for another article. 

 In 2014, Cuomo had angered most of the Democratic base and won by only 13 points, despite being on no one’s radar. At the same time though, Democratic turnout was extremely low hurting Democrats across the state. In NY-24 for example, a 57% Obama seat centered around Syracuse, a Republican John Katko (R) won it thanks to low Democratic turnout. Also, Rep.  Bishop (D) lost a Long Island Congressional seat that he had held for 12 years and won through 2010 and the Republican leaning years of 2002 and 2004. 

Conclusion: 

Overall, Trump will hurt House Republicans as long as his candidacy increases Democratic turnout.  It should not be difficult for Democrats to bring out their base regardless of the nominee, especially  with Trump’s hateful comments toward women, hateful comments toward Hispanics and refusal to denounce the KKK. If Trump’s candidacy though fails to turnout the Democratic base and instead mainly persuades moderate suburban Republicans to support the nominee, it will  not have as strong an impact downballot.

Also, both Democrats have arguments that they will increase higher turnout. Hillary’s campaign will argue that they can increase turnout with African Americans and Hispanics and Bernie’s campaign will argue that they will increase turnout among young people. With Trump’s candidacy though, turnout among all three groups should skyrocket. 

At this time, it is still unlikely that Democrats regain the House due to gerrymandering but  they can greatly narrow the GOP majority. At least any swing district Democrats hold with a high Hispanic population will now be safer due to high Hispanic turnout against Trump. What will be important for Democrats though is that besides persuading center right Hispanics, they also need to register and turnout as many low propensity Hispanic voters as they can. As shown in Ohio, New York and Virginia, sweeping Democratic wins have stronger coattail effects when those sweeping Democratic wins are fueled by low propensity voters instead of simply by persuading Independents to vote Democratic in a top of the ticket race.

California House Races 2014

2012 was a fantastic year for Democrats in California. Obama won 60% of the vote here, Democrats won 2/3 majorities in the State Assembly and State Senate and Democrats gained four U.S. House seats (from 2002-10, they gained only one.) Democrats overperformed expectations by winning all the tossup House seats and winning Assembly seats such as one in formerly Republican leaning Lancaster. Democrats have even more opportunities in 2014 though and can gain three more U.S. House seats if everything goes right. Having everything go right does not happen often but in 2012, most projections showed Democrats gaining two House seats in California but they gained four, winning CA-36 and CA-7 which were previously thought to be Republican leaning tossups. They also performed well in CA-26 and CA-52, two districts with many upscale white voters. These districts voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012 but in 2010, voted for Whitman in the Gubernatorial so Democrats need to prevent the upscale voters from reverting back to the Republicans in 2014. Also, Democrats need to retain those seats because the base will have lower turnout in 2014 and midterms always have a more conservative electorate. With more resources in 2014 devoted to House races than in 2012 though, Democrats stand a strong chance to retain their wins in 2012 and expand on their 38-15 seat majority of California's Congressional delegation.

Map of California's congressional districts. Source:

Here is an interactive map of California's current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/CA

Republican held seats:

Tossup/Tilt Democratic (1 seat)

CA-31 Rep. Gary Miller (R) Redlands, San Bernadino, Rancho Cucamonga
Partisan Stats: Obama 57%, Romney 41% (2012 Presidential results by district for California are here)
Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Brown 49%, Whitman 44%
(2008 and 2010 district by district results + demographics are here)

The 31st district has a strong Democratic lean (even Whitman could not win it,) and it was one of the few districts where the President performed better in 2012 than he did in 2008. It is trending Democratic quickly too with a 49% Hispanic population so why does a Republican represent it? California's top two primary system is the answer. The top two vote receivers regardless of party run for the seat and in the 2012 primary, the top two vote receivers were Republicans. The Democratic field was split and Pete Aguilar (D), the Redlands Mayor was the top Democrat in that race. Democrats are working to convince him to run again and this time, two Republicans will not be the top two vote receivers. Miller does not even have a looming primary challenge. The district's lean should be enough to put Aguilar over the top in the general election if he runs although as Democrats learned in 2012, they can take nothing for granted in this district.

Lean Republican

CA-10 Jeff Denham (R) Modesto, Tracy
Partisan stats: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Brown 43%, Whitman 49%

Democrats nominated Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D) in 2012 and Hernandez lost by only 5 points. Hernandez may run again for this seat but it is difficult to see how 2014 should be more favorable to him than 2012 was. President Obama won the district in 2012 but Denham is popular here and convinced enough voters to ticket split even while Hernandez had strong ads, a strong backstory and strong fundraising. Voters have ticket split for Denham in the past when he represented a State Senate seat that Obama won with 59% in 2008 and even Kerry carried in 2004 so it was not a major surprise. It shows how difficult it will be to defeat  Denham though but since the demographics of the district are changing, Democrats should win here eventually.

CA-21 David Valadao (R) Bakersfield, Kings County
Partisan Stats: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Brown 47%, Whitman 44%

The 21st district is 70% Hispanic, the Hispanic population is growing quickly and the district is trending Democratic. Why does a Republican represent this district? The Hispanic turnout here is very low and the Hispanics in the Central Valley are more likely to ticket split than Hispanics in Los Angeles and Democrats nominated John Hernandez (D) who received little help from the DCCC. The Democratic preferred candidate Michael Rubio (D) declined running due to family concerns. He also resigned the State Assembly where he served in 2012 to become a lobbyist for Chevron, taking him out of consideration in 2014. For 2014 though, Democrats need to nominate a better fundraiser than Hernandez and a possible candidate is Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong (D) who lost the 2012 primary to Hernandez. Other possible candidates include Fran Florez (D). Democrats have been attacking Valadao early seeing an opportunity in this district. The problem for Democrats is that Hispanic turnout in California tends to drop in midterms so whoever they nominate has to turnout Hispanics and prevent Valadao from winning them.

Democratic held seats:

Tossup/Tilt Democratic

CA-36 Raul Ruiz (D) Coachella, Palm Springs
Obama 51%, Romney 48%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Brown 43%, Whitman 49%

This seat barely supported President Obama in 2012, Ruiz is a freshman Congressman, this district has a large Hispanic population and the Hispanic turnout should be lower in 2014 so Republicans should be ready to target this seat. They should not underestimate Ruiz though because he overperformed President Obama not against a far right candidate in the mold of Michelle Bachmann but Mary Bono Mack (R), a moderate candidate who had represented the district since the 90s. This indicates that if even Bono Mack cannot hold this seat, how could a far right tea party candidate win it back? (and it is unlikely any moderate candidate can win a Republican primary in this climate and Bono Mack does not seem interested in running.) Also, with the Hispanic population here growing very quickly, Republicans will be unable to hold this seat long even if they win in 2014.

(Lean Democratic)

CA-07 Ami Bera (D) Sacramento suburbs
Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Brown 49%, Whitman 44%

In the 2006 edition of the Almanac of American Politics, a similar configuration to this district was called "safely Republican." In 2012, Dr. Ami Bera won this district against former Rep. Dan Lungren (R), defeating a man who had served as CA Attorney General in the 1990s and had 18 years of experience in the U.S. House. Bera won not only by his strong fundraising skills, he won by courting the new voters in the Sacramento suburbs in a district that was >70% white in 2000 but in 2010 was close to 60% White. Even in the 2010 midterms, this district voted for Gov. Jerry Brown (D). This district is listed at Lean Democratic for now due to the close nature of this district even though no strong Republican has stepped up to challenge Bera. Potential candidates Republicans may consider courting could be vocal Prop 8 supporter Andy Pugno (R) who ran for State Assembly in 2010 or State Assemblywoman Beth Gaines (R). The issue for Republicans though is that their bench has weakened recently in the Sacramento suburbs because they lost their State Assembly districts there in the late 2000s. One  possibility is 2012 Senate candidate Elizabeth Emken who expressed interest in running. Emken ran for office twice, first for U.S. House and came in last place in the Republican primary and ran for Senate in 2012, losing by 24 points. She may not be a major threat.

CA-26 Julia Brownley (D) Ventura, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks
Obama 54%, Romney 43%
Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Brown 46%, Whitman 47%

This was one of the most interesting races of 2012 where State Senator Tony Strickland (R) (who I met on January 23rd actually at a panel discussing President Obama's 2nd term,) Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (I) and State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) faced each other in the top two primary. Brownley and Strickland went to the general election and Brownley won by showing Strickland's extremist views on women's rights. Brownley should probably win reelection because she is a good fit for the district and Strickland was an extremely difficult candidate to beat, proving Brownley can handle tough opponents. This race may move into the likely Democratic column soon.


CA-52 Scott Peters (D) northern San Diego
Obama 52%, Romney 46%
Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Brown 43%, Whitman 50%

Peters fought a hard battle to win this seat against Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) even though Bilbray is moderate and well respected in the San Diego area. Also, this district is trending Democratic which should help Peters but the issue for him is that San Diego votes more Republican during midterm races (Bilbray won easily in 2010 and Whitman performed well too.) Republicans however are working hard to beat Peters and potential candidates include San Diego City Councilman Kevin Faulconer (R) and former councilman Carl DeMaio (R). DeMaio ran for mayor in 2012. While he lost the mayor's race by 5 points, he carried the portion of San Diego in CA-52 56%-43% so he is popular here.



Overall, how does the 2014 cycle look in California 20 months until Election Day? Both parties have opportunities with Democrats hoping to gain Republican held seats where they ran poor campaigns in 2012  and Republicans are hoping to win back seats they lost in 2012 due to changing demographics and poor candidates. What Republicans must worry about though is that even if they prevent Democrats from turning out in 2014 and gain a few seats, California's changing demographics and the Republicans' inability to win over the new demographics mean that in 2016, Republicans could lose those seats again and lose more seats they thought were safely Republican. In 2012, Republicans lost an Assembly seat in Palmdale with a fast growing Hispanic population, despite even Democratic pundits predicting Republicans would hold that seat. In 2016, Rep. Buck McKeon (R) representing Palmdale may face a very close race too, he won only 54% in 2012 against an underfunded challenger despite nearly no pundits predicting a single digit margin for him. Even running Hispanic candidates is not always a solution, Republicans ran Hispanic Abel Maldonado (R) in the 24th district which was a near tie between Brown and Whitman. Maldonado was moderate and well known throughout the district yet he lost by ten points. Another plus for the Democrats is that Organizing for Action, the President's campaign arm which helped him win in 2012 but focused little on the House races will be devoting more energy to the House races in 2014 and will be extremely helpful in districts such as California's by helping Democrats register and turnout the new demographics moving into California.

The Candidates Forum for California's 2nd Congressional District

I attended a forum for the Congressional Candidates for California's 2nd Congressional District on October 21st in the Marin Academy High School. The California Redistricting Commission redrew the map of California's districts so Marin County (where Marin Academy is) is in the same district as Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity and parts of Sonoma County including Petaluma. I testified in front of the California Redistricting Commission twice and my analysis of those meetings is here:  http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-visit-to-california-redistricting.html and http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/07/thoughts-on-californias-redistricting.html
The new district that the Commission created spans from Sausalito to Crescent City. It represents all of Marin, Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity and Del Norte Counties. It also represents western Sonoma County, Petaluma and all of Sonoma County including and north of Windsor. The district now has a mix of affulent voters in the Marin County area with a mix of working class and extremely liberal and environmental voters in the northern part of the district. The district is heavily white and heavily Democratic.
This post though focuses on the congressional candidates for the new seat now that Lynn Woolsey (D), the current representative in Marin plans to retire. Although California has a top two primary system where all candidates run in a jungle primary and the top two vote getters face each other in a runoff, all five candidates at the forum were Democrats and many of the candidates stated, "We agree on most of the issues." The candidates were Susan Adams (D), the President of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, Jared Huffman (D), the California State Assembly member from the 6th district representing Marin and southern Sonoma Counties, Norman Solomon (D), a progressive activist from Inverness in West Marin, Stacy Lawson (D), an entrepreneur from San Rafael and Tiffany Renee (D), a Petaluma city councilmember. Already, I noticed that none of these candidates live in the North Coast areas recently added to the district. This could create an opening for a North Coast candidate such as Wesley Chesbro (D) who is the State Assembly member there but all five Marin candidates have campaigned heavily in the North Coast which should increase their visibility there. The candidates discussed their outreach to the North Coast frequently during the forum because the North Coast has issues critical to them as a rural area that do not affect Marin which is a more suburban county. The candidates began the forum with their opening statements.

Jared Huffman's main points are that he is hardworking (he passed 60 bills including those that helped state parks and oil spills,) the country needs less vitriol and he has record of overcoming political gridlock. I liked his opening statement because he stated his environmental work which will play well with the large number of pro environment voters in the 2nd district and he stated his willingness to compromise which is important in the divided house today. Norman Solomon's opening statement including him calling himself "the grassroots candidate." He also strongly praised Occupy Wall St. and stated "We cannot remain silent." He also described health care as a human right. Although the 2nd district has many very liberal voters, Solomon may be running too far to the left to win. A recent poll showed him with 11% while Huffman had 16%. 46% of the voters were undecided though. Still, running to the left worked for Woolsey in 2006 when Joe Nation (D) challenged her in the primary and she won 66%-34% by running to his left. The next candidate, Stacy Lawson talked about how she grew up in a trailer in Washington State and became a successful businesswoman. After Lawson spoke, Susan Adams gave her opening statement. She stated how she wants a healthy planet with healthy communities and how she was a nurse for 33 years who supports health care for all. She ended by saying "Send a nurse to heal the house." She will probably will try to win the woman vote, especially from Mothers by focusing on the strong communities theme. Tiffany Renee talked about how she was the first Latina elected to Petaluma's city council, she had 20 years of experience in the community and that the United States needs to improve the nation's infrastructure. I liked her ideas but she seemed to lack a certain charisma.
Neha Budhraja, one of the Editors in Chief of Marin Academy's School Newspaper, the Voice asked the first question. "How will the district's expansion change the issues you hope to work on?" Susan Adams discussed how coastal issues connected the district. "We rely on your voices," she said. Tiffany Renee responded by talking about building consensus throughout the district and looking at natural resources. Her answer could have been more specific about which issues in particular though. Stacy Lawson explained the issues well by stating, "I went up and down the district. We need jobs. The 2nd big issue is protecting the coastline. The district was created for coastal interests. The 3rd issue is education." Norman Solomon responded by quickly stating how all the counties are unique with common threads with a hunger for honesty like the child in the Emperor's New Clothes who said, "The Emperor is not wearing any clothes." Most of his answer did not fully revolve around the question though. For example, he described his article against the Bank Bailout in the Marin Independent Journal (Marin IJ.) He stated he wanted to challenge Wall Street and power does not go without a fight. Then he mentioned how 70% of his donations were $50 or less and he would not accept corporate or PAC money. It should be noted that federal candidates cannot accept corporate money, including Norman Solomon and his opponents. Norman Solomon should have focused his answer on the question instead of describing his donations or an article he wrote against the bailout because that does not answer how the new district will specifically affect the issues. Jared Huffman fully explained the issues the new districts face when he said the common elements in this district with 500 miles of coastline is protectin oceans and fisheries. Jared Huffman also listed how the League of Conservation Voters and Ocean Champions have endorsed him and he will soon announce additional endorsements. Although he mentioned his supporters like Norman Solomon did, Jared Huffman integrated them better by using them to describe his consistent reliability on environmental issues. Jared Huffman also mentioned how the North Coast has a resource based economy and how the district needs someone who understands those issues.

After the candidates answered the first question, they opened questions to the audience. The first question was, "How do you plan to work around the power of the Pentagon?" Norman Solomon answered first by stating how Wall Street was the root of the problems with the Pentagon and he had a Dr. King reference in his answer but his reference was a real stretch. Although the Wall Street issue seems very important to Norman Solomon, he should have stated his opinion on the Iraq War instead of circling back to Wall Street. I know Solomon supports a full withdrawl of troops from both Iraq and Afghanistan and I know that most of the audience members would have agreed with him. I am not sure if many of the audience members though can see the connection between the funding for the Pentagon and the corporate power referenced by Occupy Wall Street. Still, the Iraq War is not a major issue for people but the Occupy Wall Street movement is at this moment and growing every day. As for Susan Adams, she had a focused answer on the Pentagon question and she highlighted how wars affected her when she mentioned how her brother had PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.) Jared Huffman explained how he opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. Stacy Lawson also mentioned Occupy Wall Street in her answer. Tiffany Renee mentioned how the war was a personal issue for her because she had relatives fighting in it. She did not want Operation Welcome Home to be defunded.

The next question was, "What are your proposals for deficit reduction?" Jared Huffman quickly answered by stating that the Bush tax cuts must expire. He stated his support for the American Jobs Act, proposed by President Obama, because it leads our nation on the right path by creating clean energy infrastructure and less military spending. Norman Solomon responded by saying "We need to protest Wall Street," in order to gain tax equity. Although protesting Wall Street may not have been the best answer for a question relating to the Pentagon, Occupy Wall Street fit well with the question relating to deficit reduction. Norman Solomon made a good decision though to highlight his views on Occupy Wall Street. Jared Huffman, through his work in the State Assembly, already has established himself as the environmental candidate. Also, Huffman's endorsements and environmental bills would make it very hard for Norman Solomon to win on the environmental issue, so discussing the extremely relevant Occupy Wall Street issue seems to work for him and increase his popularity with the district's progressives. Stacy Lawson seems to be trying to paint herself as the jobs candidate although Norman Solomon seems to be winning the battle for the Progressive movement. Stacy's answer to the question was that she supports the Warren Buffett plan which increases taxes on the rich. She did not highlight her opinions on Occupy Wall Street though. In order to beat Norman Solomon though and take one of the spots for the election after the top two primary, she needs to position herself as the candidate who can create jobs instead of as the candidate who dislikes the corporate power structure because voters are looking for solutions. As for Susan Adams's response to the question, she highlighted her support for the Warren Buffett plan. "Let's help Warren Buffett" she said. She also described how Marin County balanced its budget while she was a Supervisor and how she supported stewardship of taxpayer dollars. For example, she discussed how the state may release 40,000 prisoners because of budget problems. "In Marin, we give prisoners rehibilitation instead of jail," she said. She then described how Marin's recidivism rate was reduced by 85%. Tiffany Renee's answer to the question was quick when she said that she supported Occupy Wall Street and that, "Corporations are not people. " This was a reference to Romney's recent statement describing corporations as people.

The next question was from an independent friend of mine who asked, "You are all  liberal. How do you plan to compromise?" Adams responded first, reiterating her theme of healthy communities by stating how our country needs healthy discussions. She also discussed her experience with talking to conservatives in the Central Valley. Jared Huffman said that being bipartisan is a good idea but giving ones values away is a bad idea. He passed many bipartisan bills while in the state legislature. Stacy Lawson said that most people are favorable of tax reform and we need to look beyond ideology. People should stand for and not against something. Tiffany Renee replied by describing her politically diverse family who could always sit down together happily at family dinners. She believed Congress would not sit down together like her family at family dinners. I like how she brought the personal aspect of her life into the compromise debate. Norman Solomon though took a different stance on the compromising issue. He said, "We need to distinguish between compromise and capitulation." He described how Civil Rights movement leaders were considered unrighteous. Then he said how they did not compromise by asking for no colored fountains on Thursdays, they asked for no colored fountains on all days. As Solomon finished his statement, he advertised his non GMO sunflower seeds in seed packets that he brought with him to the event. After this question, the event ended because of the time limit. A few of the candidates including Susan Adams, Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon though stayed after the events. They did not have a chance to answer my questions in the forum so I wanted to have a chance to talk to them. I first talked to Stacy Lawson and I asked her about what she believes the most important issues for Marin's youth are. She said that getting into college was an extremely important issue. As for Norman Solomon, he talked about drug issues and their importance. Susan Adams also highlighted a quality education was extremely important for youth. Even after Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon left, Susan Adams stayed to talk to teachers and students.

Overall, this event was a fantastic way for the Marin Academy Community and me to learn about the candidates. A recent poll showed that 46% of the district's voters are undecided so I am glad voters could see where the candidates stand. The two polls released in this race though show that Jared Huffman leads with 16% and 20% respectively. Even the poll Norman Solomon's campaign released showed Solomon down by 5 points to Huffman. Although running to the left of all the candidates may work in the Democratic primary, California's top two primary system may change the dynamics of the race. All candidates of all parties run in a primary and the top two vote getters face each other in the general election, even if the top two are members of the same party. This means that independents can vote for the candidates in the primary and they will probably support the most moderate candidates. The five Democrats are all liberal but Susan Adams and Stacy Lawson could make inroads with the more moderate voters. Stacy Lawson's message of jobs will play well with voters who are unemployed while Susan Adams's message should work with women, especially mothers with her healthy communities' message. Overall, the candidates are successfully defining their roles. Jared Huffman is the environmental candidate, Norman Solomon is the Occupy Wall Street candidate, Stacy Lawson is the jobs candidate, Susan Adams is the health candidate and Tiffany Renee is the Latina candidate. Although the economy is rough and people want jobs, the North Coast is known for its strong commitment to the environment so I see Jared Huffman winning in the end.

Revised Maryland Redistricting

Central Maryland

East Maryland

West Maryland

I created these redistricting maps with this great tool called Dave's Redistricting App like I did with the other maps. I already did a map with Maryland redistricting on swing state project in September but now that Obama/McCain election results are incorporated into maps of Maryland, I decided to create a new map this time knowing how each congressional district I made voted for Obama. I decided to do an 8-0 Democratic map without creating a convoluted gerrymander. I also wanted to make sure none of the district violated the Voting Rights Act which requires Maryland to have two African American majority districts. If you are confused with the district labeling, CD4 is for the red district while CD8 is for the light purple district. CD3 is for the purple district and CD6 represents the teal district. Gerrymanders are when redistrictors create maps with districts that are not too compact but instead send tendrils out to pick up areas with certain voters. I think I gerrymandered a bit with the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts but on the most part, I probably avoided a large gerrymander. My main goals here were to shore up Frank Kratovli (D) who barely won in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional district last year. I also wanted to make Roscoe Bartlett's 6th district too Democratic so he would retire. Here is a link to the current map of Maryland's Congressional districts: http://http//www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Redist/congd02/cong02_md.htm

Here is a link for Maryland's demographic data: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/maryland_map.html

Here is yet another link, this time for 2008 election results in Maryland: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

1st District Frank Kratovli (D)
I could not split the eastern shore because the Maryland State Legislature would probably not back that kind of plan. The old district went onto the western shore taking in heavily Republican parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties. For this plan, I sent the 1st into Democratic Annapolis and up north towards Prince Georges County. Along the way, I slipped in some Democratic parts of Anne Arundel County besides Annapolis and put about 130,000 people in Prince George's County into the 1st. This raises Obama's percentage of the vote to 54% which is about the same as my old map. Prince Georges County had high turnout in 2008 because of Obama but the turnout may drop in an off year election, causing trouble for Kratovli. He should still win because the Republican base in the 1st district is in the Eastern Shore which is Kratovli's base. In 2008, the Republican challenger did well on the western shore. Demographics are 25% African American and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

2nd district Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

By creating a more compact district, I included more Republican areas in the district. Giving the 2nd district more of Baltimore compensates a bit but I still decreased the African American population from 27% to 23%. The 2nd district represents many working class neighborhoods in Baltimore City and Baltimore County and most of those votes should support Democrats except they might lean towards former Governor Bob Ehlrich (R). Unless a candidate like Ehlrich runs, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning. Obama won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% African American and 68% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

3rd district John Sarbanes (D)

I removed all of Anne Arundel County and parts of Baltimore County. I replaced those areas with Carroll County, more of Howard County and a bit more of Baltimore City. Even though Carroll County is heavily Republican, the Democratic areas in Howard County, Baltimore City and County make the 3rd district heavily Democratic. Also, I increased the African American percentage from 16% to 23%. In my last map, the 3rd district voted 55% for Obama because I did not have enough of Howard County and too much of Carrol County. Now with these changes, Obama won a solid 60% of the vote. Demographics are 23% African American, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th district Donna Edwards (D)

Originally, this district contained heavily Democratic areas in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties. In my old map I gave the district some Republican parts of Frederick County. Now this version of the 4th district has part of Carroll County too. The district also does not violate the Voting Rights Act because 50% of the population in my 4th district is African American. Donna Edwards should have no trouble winning here against a Republican. Obama won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Steny Hoyer (D)
Steny Hoyer is the House Majority Leader so he should get whatever kind of district he wants. By removing parts of Prince Georges County and adding Republican parts of Anne Arundel County, the district grows less Democratic. Even though he should win in this district, he may not view it as safe enough for him. Still, the 27% African American population should be enough to protect him. Obama won 57% of the vote here. Demographics are 27% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

6th District Vacant

This district formerly belonged to octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett (R) but since I moved his home out of the 6th, the district is currently vacant. Since I put the majority of the district in Montgomery County, the district turns from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. I also slipped in a small piece of Prince George's County which was in the old 8th district and basically caused Chris Van Hollen (D) to win there in 2002. The Republican areas in the west should not be enough to offset Democratic margins here. Obama won 61% of the vote in the new 6th. Demographics are 14% African American, 7% Asian, 12% Hispanic and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

7th District Elijah Cummings (D)
This district also barely meets the VRA standards but it does. It also includes heavily African American and Democratic parts of Baltimore City and County (Obama won 98% of the vote in many of the precincts) but also goes to the Pennsylvania border and includes heavily Republican exurban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties. Even though the suburban areas are extremely Republican, the district still remains heavily Democratic and Cummings should not have much trouble with reelection. Obama won 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American and 42% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

8th District Chris Van Hollen (D) v. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Since Bartlett is very old and this district is anchored in Montgomery County, he should just retire instead of facing a hard race. Van Hollen is a strong candidate with deep pockets. Anyway, Van Hollen's new district contains most of Frederick County which leans Republican and retains part of Montgomery County which leans Democratic. Obama won 64% of the vote here. Demographics are 14% African American, 11% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe Democrat.