Maryland 7-0-1

I am aware this is my 5th Maryland map that I have drawn. I wanted to draw a map though that created a 7-0-1 map with seven heavily Democratic seats and one swing seat. Creating an 8-0 map would require taking some Democratic precincts from Prince Georges County into the 1st district on the Eastern Shore and most legislators from Prince Georges County do not want that to happen. They recently for the map Maryland just passed with seven Democratic districts and one heavily Republican district. Instead of drawing a map that way, I drew a map with two majority African American districts, safe districts for all incumbents, a new Democratic district in western Maryland and a swing district combining the Eastern Shore with Democratic parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Also, this map features a new minority majority district. Anyway, here are the maps:

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris (R) Blue
Obama 48.0%, McCain 50.3%
Average: Dem 49.8%, Rep 50.2%
Demographics 18+: 4.7% Hispanic, 16.9% African American, 74.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Tossup

Harris does not live in this district anymore because his home is in Baltimore County and this district loses all of its territory in Baltimore County. This district retains all of the Eastern Shore which Harris previously represented so he may decide to run here. The 1st district gains Democratic leaning Annapolis, some Democratic leaning areas in western Anne Arundel County and a few Democratic precincts in Howard County. Even though McCain won the district, the district's Democratic average is nearly a tie. Also, Frank Kratovli (D) from the Eastern Shore may run here and he over performs in the Eastern Shore so if he runs, the Democratic areas outside of the Eastern Shore should be able to offset smaller Republican margins on the Eastern Shore.

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Obama 57.7%, McCain 40.3%
Average: Dem 63.1%, Rep 36.9%
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Hispanic, 4.6% Asian, 24.1% African American, 65.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 2nd Congressional district becomes a bit more Republican as it gains a few Republican areas from the 1st district such as Perry and parts of Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses all of its territory in Anne Arundel County as it becomes centered around Baltimore County and Baltimore City. Although the district is a bit less Democratic than before, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning here. The area votes heavily Democratic at a local level. It is possible Andy Harris (R) decides to run here but the nearly 58% Obama numbers may discourage him.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Obama 58.4%, McCain 39.6%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.8% Asian, 22.0% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd Congressional district changes a bit as it loses all of its area in Baltimore County except for Towson where Sarbanes lives. This district becomes focused around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, gaining parts of Columbia and Ellicot City that were formerly in the 7th district. The district remains strongly Democratic though with the 58% Obama number.

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Obama 75.5%, McCain 23.5%
Average: Dem 73.3%, Rep 26.7%
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian, 50.3% African American, 35.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

Edwards's district becomes more Republican as it gains most of heavily Republican Carroll County. The district retains minority heavy parts of Montgomery County as Edwards requested. The district retains heavily Democratic and African American parts of Prince Georges County, maintaining its VRA status and remaining too Democratic for a Republican to win.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.6%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 5.4% Hispanic, 33.1% African American, 55.7% Whiite
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th congressional district does not undergo major changes as it retains the southern portion of Maryland. It does gain the swingy Crofton area though while losing some precincts near Crofton and Laurel in Prince Georges County. Obama's 62% of the vote in this district though should ensure that it will remain in Democratic hands.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Obama 60.7%, McCain 37.6%
Average: Dem 62.1%, Rep 37.9%
Demographics 18+: 10.4% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 9.0% African American, 70.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Status: Likely Democratic

This district contains Van Hollen's home but makes major changes in its territory. While it retains heavily Democratic areas near Bethesda and Rockville, it also gains the Republican areas in the western part of the state in Alleghany, Garrett and Washington Counties. Van Hollen is very popular in his district though and the 60.7% Obama number should prevent Republican challengers such as Roscoe Bartlett (R) from successfully winning the district.

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Obama 67.8%, McCain 30.6%
Average: Dem 66.1%, Rep 33.9%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th Congressional district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Howard County and gains the heavily Republican areas of Harford and north Baltimore Counties. The even more strongly Democratic precincts in Baltimore City though keep this district strongly in the Democratic column.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (R) SlateBlue
Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.3%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 8.7% Asian, 20.1% Hispanic, 19.3% African American, 49.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Bartlett's home of Frederick is in the 8th district, he will probably not run here because of the 65% Obama numbers in this district. The 8th congressional district loses the heavily Republican western parts of Maryland with Alleghany and Garrett Counties while losing conservative areas in Carroll and Baltimore Counties. The 8th district then gains Democratic parts of Montgomery County such as Gaithersburg and even gains a small portion of Prince Georges County. Van Hollen may decide to run in the 8th district instead of the 6th district even though he does not live in the new 8th.

Maryland Redistricting 8-0 Democratic

I previously drew a Maryland redistricting map http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2010/12/maryland-redistricting-7-1-d.html with partisan data but this new map is designed to elect an 8-0 Democratic delegation. The last map was designed for a 7-1 Democratic delegation. I previously thought that an 8-0 Democratic map was too risky because it may endanger Democratic incumbents such as Dutch Ruppersberger (D) because his district would add Republican areas to open other districts to Democratic challengers. Currently, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D) and many other Maryland Democrats are pushing for a 7-1 Delegation by either forcing Rep. Andy Harris (R) or Roscoe Bartlett (R) into a Democratic district. I drew this 8-0 Democratic map to demonstrate that Democrats can draw an 8-0 Democratic map in Maryland while protecting their incumbents. The Democrats need to draw an 8-0 map in Maryland because it is one of the few states where Democrats hold the trifecta. Republicans are drawing extremely grotesque gerrymanders in states such as North Carolina, severely under representing the Democratic voters so the Democrats need to counterbalance that with maps in states such as Maryland. The 8-0 map I drew also follows the guidelines of the VRA so two districts will have African American majorities while making sure that no district voted less than 55% Obama. To calculate the district's Democratic percentage though, I am also using the statewide average of all statewide races from 2006 to 2008. Also, the Demographics 18+ means the demographics for voters 18 and older. Anyway, here are the maps:


Maryland's current congressional maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd112_md.pdf

Maryland

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris? (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 170,838 55.2%, McCain 134,240 43.4%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,832 56.6%, Rep 111,834 43.4%
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 62.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 26.7% African American, 64.9% White
Old Presidential Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Status: Lean Democratic

In 2010, Andy Harris won in the 1st district by 13 points against Frank Kratovli (D) but underperformed McCain's 18 point win in the district. Harris does not even live in the new 1st district, he lives in Cockeysville, a Baltimore suburb in Baltimore County. He will probably run here though because this 1st district contains more than half of his current district. The new 1st district though is different from his current district. Instead of representing conservative Baltimore suburban communities, the district crosses the bridge and represents Annapolis and eastern Prince Georges County. These changes increase the African American population from 11% to 27% and the Obama percentage from 40% to 55%. If Kratovli ran in 2012, he would probably win because of high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County and ticket splitting for Kratovli in the Eastern Shore. Even in a midterm year, Kratovli should win because Prince Georges County is trending Democratic extremely quickly. Governor Martin O’Malley won 56% statewide in his reelection campaign but won 88% in Prince Georges County, just behind Obama’s 89% despite underperforming Obama more in the rest of the state. One possibility is that a Prince Georges County candidate would primary him but because 61% of the district's Obama vote was cast outside of the county, Kratovli should win a primary.

Baltimore Area
Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 163,753 57.0%, McCain 117,575 40.9%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 146,162 62.7%, Rep 86,796 37.3%
Demographics: 5.2% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 25.7% African American, 62.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 23.5% African American, 65.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district currently has convoluted lines but they become less convoluted on this map. The 2nd district becomes more centered around Baltimore County as it loses most of its Anne Arundel County portion and gains more of Baltimore County by gaining Pikesville, Perry Hill and Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses Randallstown, a heavily Democratic area so the Obama percentage drops from 60% to 57%. 57% should be enough to protect Ruppersberger who won reelection easily in 2010, a very strong Republican year. Also, the district's average is 62.7% Dem, close to the statewide average of 62.9% Dem. This area also has a reputation for voting strongly Democratic in local races such as House races. Also, the new district has a larger portion of heavily Democratic Baltimore City than the current district does. Ruppersberger should not have much trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 179,121 60.4%, McCain 111,585 37.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 150,898 62.7%, Rep 89,590 37.3%
Demographics: 6.0% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 25.9% African American, 57.6% White
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 24.2% African American, 61.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd district becomes more centered around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties as it loses Pikesville and Randallstown in Baltimore County. It gains more of Columbia and even a few precincts in Montgomery County. These changes boost the Obama percentage up to 60% which should keep Sarbanes safe from a Republican challenge. One issue though is that Sarbanes lives in Towson in Baltimore County and the majority of the district's population is not in Baltimore County so a primary challenge is possible. Sarbanes should win though because he has won primary challenges easily since 2006 when he won the seat. Also, he retains a large portion of Anne Arundel which was his best county in the competitive 2006 primary. In that primary, Sarbanes did not win Baltimore County so losing part of it may actually help him in the primary.

Washington Suburbs

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 236,034 77.3%, McCain 66,083 21.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 178,705 75.1%, Rep 59,312 24.9%
Demographics: 5.7% Asian, 13.0% Hispanic, 50.4% African American, 28.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.8% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 50.3% African American, 30.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district stays strongly Democratic but becomes more Republican as it loses part of central Prince Georges County and most of its Montgomery County portion. The 4th district does gain part of southwest Prince Georges County around Fort Washington, a few precincts in Democratic leaning Charles County, swing parts of Howard County and some conservative precincts in Carroll County. I added the Howard and Carroll County precincts to this district in order to protect the 3rd, 7th and 8th districts from becoming susceptible to a serious Republican challenge. This district also remains majority African American so it follows the VRA and the 28% white percentage should not be enough for a primary challenge against Edwards. The 4th district also gains more precincts around her home, Fort Washington.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 194,351 58.6%, McCain 132,523 40.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 162,906 60.9%, Rep 104,727 39.1%
Demographics: 7.8% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Hispanic, 27.3% African American, 60.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes more Republican as it gains the Severna Park area formerly in the 1st district. The 5th district also loses part of the heavily Democratic College Park and Fort Washington areas but gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Forestville. A string of heavily Democratic precincts in Prince Georges County connects the northern and southern part of the districts. The loss of eastern Prince Georges County to make the 1st district more Democratic brings the Obama percentage in the district down to 58.6%. Hoyer should have no worries though because he is entrenched with the Republican voters in St. Mary's and Calvert Counties and the district is trending Democratic with Charles County having African Americans move in from Prince Georges County.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 181,492 60.6%, McCain 113,197 37.8%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 156,046 62.0%, Rep 95,700 38.0%
Demographics: 7.4% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic, 11.5% African American, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5 Asian, 10.7% Hispanic, 11.6% African American, 68.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district (formerly numbered the 8th) becomes more Republican as Montgomery County's portion of the district is reduced to 59% and the other 41% is Republican counties in western Maryland such as Washington and Alleghany. The 8th district retains heavily Democratic areas in Montgomery County though including Silver Spring, Bethesda and Wheaton. Although the Obama percentage in this district drops to 60.6%, Van Hollen should have no trouble winning in this district due to its Democratic percentage and his fundraising ability. Also, the district is trending Democratic as Democrats continue to move into Montgomery County. Connie Morella (R) who represented part of Montgomery County in the House until 2002 is now 80 years old so she will probably not run here.

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 214,229 67.2%, McCain 99,716 31.3%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 166,639 65.3%, Rep 88,700 34.7%
Demographics: 50.8% African American, 41.8% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Howard County and gains conservative Baltimore exurbs in Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Although these areas are heavily Republican, the 7th district retains heavily Democratic precincts in Baltimore City and west Baltimore County, easily offsetting the Republican votes. The district also retains its VRA protection with a majority African American 18+ population. Cummings should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District (formerly numbered the 6th) Roscoe Bartlett (R)Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 181,059 59.4%, McCain 118,965 39.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,341 59.0%, Rep 101,087 41.0%
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 13.2% Hispanic, 12.1% African American, 60.3% White
Demographics18+: 11.5% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic,11.4% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Likely Democratic if Bartlett runs, Safe Democratic if Bartlett does not run

Great grandfather and 85 year old Bartlett may decide to retire now that his district’s McCain percentage dropped from 58% to 39%. Although Bartlett is entrenched in his district, he is unfamiliar with the voters in Montgomery County which has a fast growing minority population. The district’s new lines may convince Bartlett to retire. A Democrat should win this district by winning high margins in Montgomery County. They should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and Democratic trending Frederick County.

Maryland Redistricting, 7-1 D

 Like in 2001, Democrats hold the trifecta in Maryland again. This means that not only do they control the Governorship, they also control both houses of the state legislature. In 2001, the congressional delegation was 4-4 but Democrats redrew the maps to make a favorable Democratic map that accomplished its goal of removing 2 of the 4 Republican representatives. After 2002, there were no party changes until 2008 when Frank Kratovli (D) ran in the 1st district which contains conservative Baltimore suburbs and the Eastern Shore. He barely won against an extremist candidate. Unfortunately for the Democrats, he lost in 2010 by 13 points. Therefore, the delegation has returned to its original 6-2 Democrats. Maryland has turned more blue though since 2002 due to more African Americans moving into Prince Georges and Charles Counties. Also, Hispanics, Asians and white liberals are moving into Montgomery County and even Frederick County. The Baltimore suburbs are actually trending Republican but that's a different post for a different day.

Still, with Maryland trending Democratic overall, it is now possible to construct a 7-1 Democratic map. I have even seen some 8-0 Democratic maps but some districts are too shaky and can result in a dummymander when Republicans are able to pick up 1,2 or even 3 of those seats. I chose to draw a 7-1 map because I think it is close to what the state legislature will draw. While drawing the map, I made sure the 4th and 7th districts remained majority African American because of the VRA requiring 2 African American majority districts. While drawing the map, I made sure no district except for the Republican 6th fell below 54% Obama. Also, I made sure 6 of the districts were at least 58% for Obama. This map should protect all the Democratic incumbents, one Republican incumbent and create a new district that leans Democratic. Now here are some helpful links:

Maryland's current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer.htm?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd110_md.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

                                     Statewide map of Maryland
Maryland's 1st Congressional District: Andy Harris (R) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 137,680 54%, McCain 113,225 44%
Demographics: 23% African American, 5% Hispanic, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Major Cities: Annapolis, Salisbury
Status: Likely Democratic

 This district makes some major changes when I moved conservative suburbs in Harford and Anne Arundel out into other districts such as the 6th and 7th while adding in Democratic Annapolis and some neighborhoods in heavily Democratic Prince Georges County and places in Anne Arundel County such as Odenton which will become more Democratic due to in migration by African Americans. Harris's base is in conservative Harford County which I removed. Frank Kratovli (D), the representative before 2010 of the 1st now has a great shot at retaking this district because of the new Democratic areas in the district. The district's Democratic lean may be overstated due to high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County but as the areas in Anne Arundel keep getting more Democratic, they should offset any drop in turnout. Also, Kratovli tends to over perform in the Eastern Shore so with big margins in Prince Georges and Anne Arundel Counties, he should win here.

                                        Baltimore Area

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 155,376 58%, McCain 107,691 40%
Demographics: 24% African American, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Towson, Dundalk
Status: Safe Democratic

Ruppersberger's district gets less convoluted by losing all of its Anne Arundel County portions and picking up swingy Towson which was originally in the 3rd district. Although the 2nd district retains some Republican suburbs around Edgemere, it still remains Democratic by picking up more Baltimore City neighborhoods. They also help balance out the loss of some heavily Democratic precincts in Randallstown. Ruppersberger should be fine here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 164,297 62%, McCain 96,626 36%
Demographics: 26% African American, 8% Asian, 60% White
Old district's partisan data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Major Cities: Randallstown, Columbia, Catonsville
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware of the fact John Sarbanes does not live in this district but it still contains Democratic Columbia. The district undergoes some major changes though. It retains parts of Baltimore County but loses nearly all of Baltimore City and all of Anne Arundel County. It even picks up some Republican areas in southern Carroll County. Sarbanes is still safe though because his district picks up some heavily African American areas in west Baltimore County, bringing the African American population in the district from 16% to 26%. I am not sure the state legislature will support this district though because in their mind, it may need more of Sarbanes's old district and they may not want to extend this into Montgomery County. Still, this is a safe district for Sarbanes.

                                        Washington Suburbs
Maryland's 4th Congressional District: Donna Edwards (D) (Red)
Partisan Data: Obama 212,819 88%, McCain 27,795 11%
Demographics: 54% African American, 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 21% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Major Cities: Fort Washington, Chillum, Silver Spring
Status: Safe Democratic

The district remains VRA protected and gets even more Democratic although Edwards was more than safe here already. The district becomes smaller and loses more moderate areas in northern Montgomery County while picking up part of Wheaton in Montgomery County. I would have extended this district out into more swingy areas in Montgomery County but the 3rd district took them for population reasons. I am not sure if the legislature will send Edwards's district to pick up some Republican areas to help protect other incumbents or make a district similar to mine.

Maryland 5th Congressional District: Steny Hoyer (D) (yellow)
Partisan Data: Obama 176,048 66%, McCain 89,006 33%
Demographics: 36% African American, 5% Hispanic, 53% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 66% McCain 33%
Major Cities: St. Charles, Bowie
Status: Safe Democratic

Hoyer's district remains strongly Democratic although retaining Republican St. Mary's, Calvert and Anne Arundel Counties. The Democratic votes in Charles (which is getting even more Democratic due to migration from Prince Georges County,) and Prince Georges County more than counterbalance the Republican areas. The only changes in this district are the addition of Fairland in Montgomery County which leans Democratic and the switching around of some Prince Georges County precincts. Hoyer should be happy with his new district.

                                         West Maryland
Maryland's 6th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (D) Teal
Partisan Data: Obama 105,718 36%, McCain 183,765 62%
Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 40% McCain 58%
Major Cities: Hagerstown, Bel Air, Cumberland
Status: Safe Republican

This district contains the fast growing red Baltimore suburbs, the D.C suburbs that lean Republican and the older communities in the Appalachian Mountains. At a first glance, it appears that the lines do not change much. Actually, they do change a bit and these changes make the district more Republican by removing most of Frederick which leans Democratic. The district loses a bit of Carroll County to the 3rd district but picks up some conservative Harford County suburbs from the old 1st district. The location affects Bartlett who lives in Frederick (which is mostly in the 8th on this map) but since the new 6th district is so similar to the old one, he will probably run there and win easily (unless Republicans try to teabag him which is possible.)

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Partisan Data: Obama 193,995 70%, McCain 77,987 28%
Demographics: African American 50%, White 43%
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Glen Burnie, South Gate
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 7th district still is anchored in Baltimore, it swings off in a different direction now. Instead of heading through west Balitmore County to west Howard County, the 7th district heads south into the conservative Anne Arundel County suburbs. It picks up Republican areas such as Glen Burnie which were formerly in the 1st district when it was very Republican. Although there are some precincts there that voted as high as 70% for McCain, precincts in Baltimore City that voted as high as 99% for Obama make this district heavily Democratic. The 50% African American population is a bit low for a VRA district but it should work because almost all of the Democratic primary voters are Democratic. Also, a 70% Obama district is way too high for any Republican to win, even in a good year.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Chris Van Hollen (D) light purple
Partisan Data: Obama 173,125 69%, McCain 74,721 30%
Demographics: 12% African American, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 59% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 74% McCain 25%
Major Cities: Bethesda, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Rockville
Status: Safe Democratic

This district gets a bit more Republican. I removed Wheaton from the district as well as the heavily Democratic small part of Prince Georges County which helped Van Hollen beat Connie Morella (R) in 2002. Also, Van Hollen's district heads out into Republican leaning Frederick County but takes up the parts that lean Democratic such as the City of Frederick. These changes bring down the Obama percentage from 74% to 69%. Van Hollen will probably want a safer district but Montgomery County has grown much more Democratic since the 90's when it elected Morella. Frederick County is getting more Democratic too so Van Hollen should have no problems.

Do you have any ideas for redistrcting Maryland? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Maryland County Baselines

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+
Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%
Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%
Blue=O'Malley 60%-69%
Dark Blue= O'Malley 70%+

This is a map for those who like visual aides like myself. This is for the baselines which I will explain below.

Robert Ehlrich (R), the former Governor of Maryland is running against Martin O' Malley (D) the incumbent Governor of Maryland. This is like a repeat of 2010 because the two same candidates are running for the same seat, except O'Malley is the Governor this time. Yes, Maryland is a Democratic state where Obama won 62% but a recent Rasmussen poll showed O' Malley ahead by only three points. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maryland/election_2010_maryland_governor
Rasmussen usually leans to the right in their polling but still, Maryland should have a competitive race. Obama had a boost from high African American turnout but most political people believe it will be lower. For your knowledge and enjoyment, I have created the baseline for Maryland counties which are the expected percentages for each candidate by county if the race is tied. I factored in the 2006 Gubernatorial election because Ehlrich and O'Malley were the candidates in it. I also factored in the 2008 Presidential election because the results are more recent and should reflect Republican and Democratic trends. The two elections combined should offer a clear picture of Maryland's county baselines. The math I used was adding the 2006 and 2008 Republican and Democratic percentages. I then divided by two and subtracted 8 from the Democratic percentage for the baseline.

A bit about Ehlrich and O' Malley's past elections: Ehlrich won in 2002 by running far ahead of Republican percentages in the Baltimore County suburbs of Anne Arundel and Baltimore County (which does not include Balitmore City.) Ehlrich used to represent a congressional district in Republican Baltimore suburbs. In 2006, he was unable to pull big margins from them because O'Malley is the former mayor of Baltimore City and he was popular with the working class Baltimore suburban voters Ehlrich won in 2002. For example, he won Baltimore County with 61% in 2002 but lost by 300 votes in 2006. For Ehlrich to win, he needs to do very well with the working class voters. He did not so he lost with 53%-46%. Enough talk about elections, here are the baselines:

Wait, here are some helpful links:

For 2006 election: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/MD/G/00/county.000.html
For 2008 election:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#MDP00p1

Now finally the baselines:

County name O'Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George's 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne's 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary's 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

As seen in the baselines, O'Malley only wins the big three (Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's Counties.) I think he should barely win Charles County which is trending Democratic quickly. Overall, the baselines should fluctuate a bit but I wanted to stay with election results, not my personal opinion on each county. Any thoughts?

Revised Maryland Redistricting

Central Maryland

East Maryland

West Maryland

I created these redistricting maps with this great tool called Dave's Redistricting App like I did with the other maps. I already did a map with Maryland redistricting on swing state project in September but now that Obama/McCain election results are incorporated into maps of Maryland, I decided to create a new map this time knowing how each congressional district I made voted for Obama. I decided to do an 8-0 Democratic map without creating a convoluted gerrymander. I also wanted to make sure none of the district violated the Voting Rights Act which requires Maryland to have two African American majority districts. If you are confused with the district labeling, CD4 is for the red district while CD8 is for the light purple district. CD3 is for the purple district and CD6 represents the teal district. Gerrymanders are when redistrictors create maps with districts that are not too compact but instead send tendrils out to pick up areas with certain voters. I think I gerrymandered a bit with the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts but on the most part, I probably avoided a large gerrymander. My main goals here were to shore up Frank Kratovli (D) who barely won in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional district last year. I also wanted to make Roscoe Bartlett's 6th district too Democratic so he would retire. Here is a link to the current map of Maryland's Congressional districts: http://http//www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Redist/congd02/cong02_md.htm

Here is a link for Maryland's demographic data: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/maryland_map.html

Here is yet another link, this time for 2008 election results in Maryland: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

1st District Frank Kratovli (D)
I could not split the eastern shore because the Maryland State Legislature would probably not back that kind of plan. The old district went onto the western shore taking in heavily Republican parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties. For this plan, I sent the 1st into Democratic Annapolis and up north towards Prince Georges County. Along the way, I slipped in some Democratic parts of Anne Arundel County besides Annapolis and put about 130,000 people in Prince George's County into the 1st. This raises Obama's percentage of the vote to 54% which is about the same as my old map. Prince Georges County had high turnout in 2008 because of Obama but the turnout may drop in an off year election, causing trouble for Kratovli. He should still win because the Republican base in the 1st district is in the Eastern Shore which is Kratovli's base. In 2008, the Republican challenger did well on the western shore. Demographics are 25% African American and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

2nd district Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

By creating a more compact district, I included more Republican areas in the district. Giving the 2nd district more of Baltimore compensates a bit but I still decreased the African American population from 27% to 23%. The 2nd district represents many working class neighborhoods in Baltimore City and Baltimore County and most of those votes should support Democrats except they might lean towards former Governor Bob Ehlrich (R). Unless a candidate like Ehlrich runs, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning. Obama won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% African American and 68% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

3rd district John Sarbanes (D)

I removed all of Anne Arundel County and parts of Baltimore County. I replaced those areas with Carroll County, more of Howard County and a bit more of Baltimore City. Even though Carroll County is heavily Republican, the Democratic areas in Howard County, Baltimore City and County make the 3rd district heavily Democratic. Also, I increased the African American percentage from 16% to 23%. In my last map, the 3rd district voted 55% for Obama because I did not have enough of Howard County and too much of Carrol County. Now with these changes, Obama won a solid 60% of the vote. Demographics are 23% African American, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th district Donna Edwards (D)

Originally, this district contained heavily Democratic areas in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties. In my old map I gave the district some Republican parts of Frederick County. Now this version of the 4th district has part of Carroll County too. The district also does not violate the Voting Rights Act because 50% of the population in my 4th district is African American. Donna Edwards should have no trouble winning here against a Republican. Obama won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Steny Hoyer (D)
Steny Hoyer is the House Majority Leader so he should get whatever kind of district he wants. By removing parts of Prince Georges County and adding Republican parts of Anne Arundel County, the district grows less Democratic. Even though he should win in this district, he may not view it as safe enough for him. Still, the 27% African American population should be enough to protect him. Obama won 57% of the vote here. Demographics are 27% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

6th District Vacant

This district formerly belonged to octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett (R) but since I moved his home out of the 6th, the district is currently vacant. Since I put the majority of the district in Montgomery County, the district turns from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. I also slipped in a small piece of Prince George's County which was in the old 8th district and basically caused Chris Van Hollen (D) to win there in 2002. The Republican areas in the west should not be enough to offset Democratic margins here. Obama won 61% of the vote in the new 6th. Demographics are 14% African American, 7% Asian, 12% Hispanic and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

7th District Elijah Cummings (D)
This district also barely meets the VRA standards but it does. It also includes heavily African American and Democratic parts of Baltimore City and County (Obama won 98% of the vote in many of the precincts) but also goes to the Pennsylvania border and includes heavily Republican exurban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties. Even though the suburban areas are extremely Republican, the district still remains heavily Democratic and Cummings should not have much trouble with reelection. Obama won 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American and 42% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

8th District Chris Van Hollen (D) v. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Since Bartlett is very old and this district is anchored in Montgomery County, he should just retire instead of facing a hard race. Van Hollen is a strong candidate with deep pockets. Anyway, Van Hollen's new district contains most of Frederick County which leans Republican and retains part of Montgomery County which leans Democratic. Obama won 64% of the vote here. Demographics are 14% African American, 11% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe Democrat.