New Jersey Fair Redistricting

New Jersey is one of the few states with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This means that even if one party holds the redistricting trifecta (Governorship and both houses of the legislature,) both parties will have a voice when New Jersey's state legislature and congressional lines are redrawn. At a first glance, a bipartisan commission suggests that the commission will draw a fair map that creates competitive districts that give opportunities for Democrats and Republicans to win. Also, a bipartisan commission would suggest a map with districts that combine communities of interest. The 2002 map that the commission drew though failed to create competitive districts that combined enough communities of interest. There were 13 congressional seats during the 2000s in New Jersey. During the 2000s, only one seat changed hands. In 2008, John Adler (D) gained the 3rd congressional seat for the Democrats and in 2010, Jon Runyan (R) returned the seat to the Republicans. This seat does not combine communities of interest though. The 3rd district combines Cherry Hill, a suburb close to Philadelphia with Toms River, a community on the central Jersey Shore. In my map's new 3rd district, it represents urban areas along the Delaware River instead of crossing the state to connect two different suburban areas connected only by a few roads crossing the rural Pine Barrens. Also, this map creates more competitive districts by making the 7th district more competitive by having Obama win it with 54% but the Republicans winning the district's average. Also, Republicans perform well in local races in New Jersey so they will have a strong shot at a 54% Obama district. Overall, the map should be 8-3-1 Democrats compared to the current 7-6 Democratic delegation. Anyway, here is a link to the current maps: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_nj.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

Statewide
New Jersey's 1st Congressional District Rob Andrews (D) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 193,498 63.9%, McCain 109,476 36.1%
Average: Dem 61.2%, Rep 38.8%
Demographics 18+: 15.3% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 69.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although I made major changes to some district such as the 3rd and 7th, the 1st district undergoes very minor changes. It does gain Republican leaning areas in western Gloucester County and part of Cherry Hill while losing all of its Burlington County precincts. These changes make the 1st district a point more Republican. It is still strongly Democratic at nearly 64% Obama so Andrews should have no trouble winning reelection. Also, the district combines communities of interest by combining the Philadelphia suburbs in Camden and Gloucester Counties.

New Jersey South

New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District Frank LoBiondo (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 156,149 52.8%, McCain 139,636 47.2%
Average: Dem 51.3%, Rep 48.7%
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 12.3% Hispanic,
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Status: Safe Republican with LoBiondo, Tossup if he retires

The 2nd district voted 53% for Obama and this number suggests the district is very competitive. The opposite is the case though because LoBiondo is moderate and extremely popular. He wins endorsements from many environmental groups in most of his races. Even in the heavily Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, he won easily despite Obama's narrow win here. The district's changes help LoBiondo a bit too by adding part of heavily Republican Ocean County along the shore. The district also does not undergo major changes so LoBiondo will continue to be elected by running in territory with familiar voters. If LoBiondo retires though, this district should become very competitive. It also combines communities of interest though by representing the combination of small cities, rural farmland and beach areas in southern Jersey.

New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District: Jon Runyan (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,899 60.7%, McCain 121,663 39.3%
Average: Dem 56.1%, Rep 43.9%
Demographics 18+: 15.6% African American, 6.3% Asian, 9.5% Hispanic, 66.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 3rd district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Ocean County. I removed Ocean County from the district because Ocean County is a Jersey Shore county filled with retirees and it is connected by only two roads to the Burlington County part of the district. The 3rd district now represents communities of interest by combining urban areas along the Delaware River by representing Willingboro, Burlington and Trenton. These changes boost the Obama numbers to around 60%. Runyan won by 3 points in 2010, a very Republican year and his entire margin came from Ocean County and he lost the Burlington and Camden County portions of the district. With the addition of heavily Democratic Trenton, Runyan will probably lose reelection. Rush Holt (D) may decide to run here because this district is safer than his other option, the 7th congressional district.

New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Chris Smith (R) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 125,322 42.1%, McCain 172,426 57.9%
Average: Rep 41.8%, Dem 58.2%
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Hispanic, 85.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district represents more communities of interest and becomes more Republican as it loses all of Mercer and Burlington Counties. It gains more of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. It extends south in Ocean County to gain all of Silverton and Toms River. In Monmouth County, it extends north to gain Republican leaning Lincroft and Tinton Falls. The 4th district also loses a few precincts in Carmerville to the 6th district. These changes bring the McCain percentage up to nearly 58%, making it the most Republican district in the state. Chris Smith already had an easy time winning reelection here but the new district should make winning easier.

North New Jersey
New Jersey's 5th Congressional District: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 172,562 57.4%, McCain 128,175 42.6%
Average: Dem 55.0%, Rep 45.0%
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 15.4% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic, 58.9% White
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Status: Likely Democratic

This map eliminates both the current 5th district (which represents Sussex, Warren and north Bergen Counties,) and the 7th district (which represents parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex Counties,) so I created the new 5th district. Most of its territory is from the current 11th and 7th districts. It takes parts of eastern Morris County from the 11th district while representing parts of Middlesex and Union Counties formerly in the 7th district. Both the 11th and 7th districts lean Republican but the 5th district becomes more Democratic by gaining Democratic areas too such as Rahway from the 10th district and Plainfield from the 6th district. The 5th district's goal is to combine communities of interest in Middlesex, Union and Morris Counties. The current map pairs Edison in Middlesex County with the Pennsylvania border in Hunterdon County. The new 5th district though represents suburban communities of interest and combines swing areas such as Westfield with nearby Democratic areas such as Plainfield instead of separating them into districts designed to protect incumbents. As for the politics of the 5th district, Frelinghuysen's home of Harding in Morris County is in the district. He will probably not run here because of the district's 57.4% Obama number. Also, he is not familiar to the voters in Union and Middlesex Counties. A moderate Republican such as Tom Kean Jr. (R) who lives in Westfield could pose a strong challenge but the district's Democratic lean should carry the Democrats to victory here.

New Jersey's 6th Congressional District: Frank Pallone (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 165,067 56.9%, McCain 124,975 43.1%
Average: Dem 55.7%, Rep 44.3%
Demographics 18+: 9.1% African American, 9.5% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 63.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 6th district undergoes a few changes. It loses all of Somerset County, all of Edison and its finger into Plainfield in order to combine more communities of interest. The district becomes more centered in Middlesex County as it gains Perth Amboy, East Brunswick and Milltown. Perth Amboy formerly was in the 13th district which combined Perth Amboy with North Bergen in Hudson County in order to create a Hispanic majority district. It is impossible to create a district with a Hispanic majority that also has Hispanics as the majority of the citizen voting population so I had to dismantle the Hispanic majority district. Also, a minority majority district cannot be created if the minority population in a certain area is not large enough for one and the district will have to have contorted lines to become a minority majority district. As for the 6th district, these changes bring the Obama percentage down from 60% to 57%. Although there is an argument that the more urbanized parts of  Monmouth and Middlesex Counties that this district combines are not communities of interest, I had to combine them for population reasons. As for the district's representation, the 57% Obama number should not hurt Pallone.

New Jersey's 7th Congressional District: Leonard Lance (R) vs. Rush Holt (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 169,679 54.3%, McCain 142,951 45.7%
Average: Obama 49.1%, McCain 50.9%
Demographics 18+: 8.5% African American, 11.7% Asian, 7.4% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (7th district,) Obama 58%, McCain 40% (12th district)
Status: Tossup

The new 7th district is a combination of the current 7th and 12th districts, representing parts of Mercer and Middlesex Counties formerly in the 12th district while also representing Hunterdon and Somerset Counties which were formerly in the 7th district. The 7th district loses its finger into Union and Middlesex Counties and does a strong job of representing communities of interest by combining exurban parts of central New Jersey. I included Trenton because of population reasons. The addition of Trenton though brings Obama's number in the district up to 54%. Although that number suggests the district leans Democratic, it is very even because the Republicans win the average vote. Also, Somerset County in 2008 swung heavily to Obama but Somerset County usually votes Republican (Governor Christie won Somerset County by 22 points in 2009.) Also, Leonard Lance who lives in the district is moderate and popular. He won by 8 points in 2008, despite facing a strong challenger in an even district. If Holt decides to run here though, it will be a close fight because Holt is a strong candidate and half of the voters in the district are familiar with him. Most of the other half of the voters are familiar with Lance though.

New Jersey's 8th Congressional District: Bill Pascrell (D) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 159,555 58.4%, McCain 113,625 41.6%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.3% Asian, 28.4% Hispanic, 54.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 8th district becomes more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic West Orange and gains swing parts of Bergen County near Lyndhurst. Also, the district adds Caldwell in west Essex County which is heavily Republican. Although these changes decrease the Obama percentage to 58%, Pascrell should win easily. He is popular here and won with 63% in the heavily Republican year of 2010.

New Jersey's 9th Congressional District: Steve Rotham (D) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 172,011 56.7%, McCain 131,469 43.3%
Average: Dem 57.0%, Rep 43.0%
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 16.0% Asian, 16.1% Hispanic, 60.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 9th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of its Hudson County portions including Jersey City and represents Bergen County only. This change makes the district more centered around communities of interest by combining the similar suburban areas in Bergen County that were built in the 1950's-60s instead of combining north Bergen County with Jersey City. The new district also gains the northern Republican leaning part of Bergen County with areas such as Norwood and Bergenfield. Although these changes bring down the Obama percentage to 56.7%, Rotham is a popular incumbent, winning 61% in 2010 so he should be safe.

Newark/Jersey City area
New Jersey's 10th Congressional District: Donald Payne (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 204,541 83.0%, McCain 41,966 17.0%
Average: Dem 79.5%, Rep 20.5%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 5.8% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 24.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 10th district lost population so it had to gain more territory in order to maintain population equity with other districts. To represent as many communities of interest as possible though, the 10th district lot Rahway in Union County on the Middlesex County border so the 10th district could be more centered around Essex County and northern Union County. The 10th district also lost most of Elizabeth to the 12th district and Maplewood to the 5th district. To compensate for the loss of these areas though, the 10th district gained West Orange and some swing areas in Union County such as Cranford. These changes bring the Obama percentage down to 83% but the district is still African American majority VAP and is the most Democratic district in New Jersey.

New Jersey's 11th Congressional District: Scott Garrett (R) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 147,263 43.0%, McCain 195,297 57.0%
Average: Dem 39.7%, Rep 60.3%
Demographics 18+: 6.4% Asian, 8.5% Hispanic, 81.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 54%
Status: Safe Republican

The 11th district represents communities of interest by representing conservative and affluent exurban areas in western New Jersey. Those areas are western Morris County, western Bergen County, Warren and Sussex Counties. The 43% Obama number is too low to elect a Democrat in the 2nd most Republican district in New Jersey. The primary though will be interesting. Although Frelinghuysen does not live in this district, most of his current territory is here. The new 11th district is a combination of Garrett's and Frelinghuysen's districts. They each represent close to an equal portion of the district and are both popular representatives. Garrett is more conservative than Frelinghuysen is though so Garrett may have a stronger chance in the primary.

New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: Albio Sires (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 121,570 71.7%, McCain 48,010 28.3%
Average: Dem 72.2%, Rep 27.8%
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 10.0% Asian, 47.6% Hispanic, 32.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 24%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 12th district becomes a few points more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic Perth Amboy and gains less Democratic areas such as Seacaucs and Kearny. The district also gains most of Elizabeth from the 10th district. These changes reduce the Obama percentage by a few points but the district is still heavily Democratic. Although the population of the district is majority Hispanic (50.3%,) the VAP is not. It is not possible to a create a Hispanic majority VAP district without extending the district to Perth Amboy and even there, the Citizens Voting Age population will probably not be over 50% for Hispanics. I used this district instead to combine communities of interest by representing industrial areas near the port such as Elizabeth and Kearny and combining it with the nearby Hudson County communities.

New Jersey Redistricting with Christie in Office

Camden and Vicinity

Southern New Jersey

Central New Jersey

Western New Jersey

Urban New Jersey

Northern New Jersey

The census should show that New Jersey will lose one congressional district. Currently, New Jersey has 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans representing it in the House of Representatives. Democrats control New Jersey's State Legislature and Governor Christie is a Republican so I expect there will be a bipartisan deal. I combined the districts of Rush Holt (D) and Leonard Lance (R) in a district that leans Democratic but Lance can win in it since it contains alot of his current district. I strengthened all the other incumbents and kept the 10th and 12th district African American and Hispanic majority respectively. For this map, I tried to not make it too convoluted because realistically, I do not see that happening. Also, I calculated the partisan data for these districts by town and I tried not to split the towns. I had to in a few cases but the partisan data should be accurate most of the time. Also, I calculated it for the top two candidates only. Here are some helpful links

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
For results by town: http://njelections.org/2008_general_election.html
For map of current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NJ

For map of the state: maps.google.com

District 1 Rob Andrews (D)
Demographics: 17% African American, 10% Hispanic and 68% White Partisan data: Obama 209,913 64%, McCain 116,314 36%
Communities of interest: Camden, Pennesauken

The district grows a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic neighborhoods in Burlington County to help strengthen the 3rd district. I also added more of Gloucester County and the areas I added are marginal. I also added a heavily Democratic slice of Salem County. Overall, I made mostly minor changes so Rob Andrews should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democrat

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 11% Hispanic and 76% White

Partisan data: Obama 179,951 49%, McCain 188,164 51%

Communities of interest: Vineland, Atlantic City, Berkeley

LoBiondo looks safe in his current district but since Obama won his current district 54%-45%, a bipartisan plan would strengthen him. To strengthen LoBiondo, I mostly removed Democratic areas. I removed Democratic parts of Salem County and some Democratic areas in Cumberland County. Since LoBiondo lives in Vineland, I could not remove it. I also removed small parts of Atlantic County but Obama barely won them. The main additions in Burlington County are Medford and Southampton which lean Republican. To completely shore up LoBiondo, I added about half of Ocean County and McCain won a 25,000 vote margin in the portion I added. These changes help boost McCain's performance from 45% to 51%, ensuring LoBiondo safety and his sucessor's safety too. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Adler (D)

Demographics: 20% African American, 10% Hispanic and 64% White
Partisan data: Obama 202,172 63%, McCain 120,457 37%

Communities of interest: Cherry Hill, Burlington, Trenton

I definitely strengthened Adler so he will have no problems with reelection. I strengthened him a bit too much though. I removed all of heavily Republican Ocean County while adding territory in South Jersey that leans Democratic as well as more Democratic territory in Burlington County. I also added Trenton which voted 92% for Obama so that brings up the Democratic total. I had to give Adler Trenton because I do not see Christie signing a bill with Trenton in the 7th district. Overall, Adler should have no problem in this district. Corzine won it in his unsucessful Gubernatorial run in 2009. Status is Safe Democratic.

District 4 Chris Smith (R)

Demographics 8% Hispanic, 83% White

Partisan Data: Obama 138,535 43%, McCain 184,011 57%

Communities of interest: Toms River, Lakewood, Freehold

Chris Smith seemed safe already, even with Democratic parts of Mercer and Burlington Counties inside his district. He lives in the Democratic parts of the district but he would probably not mind moving as long as his district is safer. I increased McCain's percentage from 52% to 57% by removing most of the Democratic areas along the Delaware River and adding more Republican areas in Monmouth County. Smith should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Scott Garrett (R)

Demographics: Hispanic 6%, Asian 6%, 85% White

Partisan Data: Obama 154,049 43%, McCain 215,083 57%

Communities of Interest: Newton, Rockaway and Montvale

This district does not go through large changes but the few I made strengthen Garrett. I removed marginal towns in Bergen County such as Bergenfield and Ridgewood. I mostly did this because the 9th district needed room to expand. I added in some Republican townships in Morris County. I also kept Garrett's home, Wantage in the district. Increasing the McCain percentage here should keep Garrett safe for until he retires. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 13% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 58% White

Partisan Data: Obama 165,102 58%, McCain 117,226 42%

Communities of Interest: Edison, Asbury Park, New Brunswick

Pallone's district gets a bit weaker. I removed Plainfield to give more African Americans to the 10th and since I tried to keep town boundries intact, I removed the small Democratic slice of Somerset County. I replaced it with Woodbridge and Edison which lean Democratic even though Christie barely won them. Still, Pallone is entrenched here and since the minority population is growing quickly here (the white population was 65% in 2000,) this district should grow more Democratic. Pallone should not have trouble. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) vs. Leonard Lance (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 8% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 69% White

Partisan Data: Obama 215,083 58%, McCain 154,049 42%

Communities of Interest: Ewing, North Brunswick

This district may at first look like a sure win for Holt because he has represented his district since the 90's and this district contains most of his old territory. Lance is a freshman but he is a moderate. He also ran a great campaign in 2008, winning against Linda Stender (D) by nine points in a district Obama barely carried. Stender was a good candidate and she almost beat Mike Ferguson (R) who formerly represented the 7th district in 2006. Also, the territory here is less Democratic than it looks with high income independents who swung heavily toward Christie in the Gubernatorial race last year. About the areas in the district, I had to remove Trenton because I think Christie would never sign a plan putting Lance in the same district as Trenton. Still, the district is Democratic with other parts of Mercer County as well as Democratic areas in Middlesex County. Overall, this should be a tough battle but Holt should win. Status is Lean Democratic.

8th District Bill Pascrell (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 29% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 53% White

Partisan Data: Obama 193,000 +-2,000 63% McCain 113,000 +-2,000 37%

Communities of Interest: Westfield, West Orange, Paterson, Clifton

I had to split some towns in this district so the vote totals are not exact. Overall, his district gets more Democratic by a few points. I removed all the Republican parts of Passaic County, leaving only Paterson, Clifton, Passaic and a few small Democratic suburbs. Obama won 74% of the vote in the 8th district's part of Passaic. I added most of western Union County which Obama and McCain split but most of the time, Republicans should win that area. I also added a slice of Bergen County which is also split between Obama and McCain. These changes should not affect Pascrell much because Paterson and neighborhoods in Essex County keep this district strongly Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Steven Rotham (D)

Demographics: 7% African American, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 56% White

Partisan Data: Obama 181,000 +-1,000 62%, McCain 113,000 +-1,000 38%

Communities of Interest: Jersey City (part,) Englewood, Hackensack, Garfield

Rotham's district gets a touch more Republican but does not make many changes. I gave the district some northern Bergen County suburbs such as Bergenfield and Tenafly which lean Democratic. The only areas I removed were Fairview and North Bergen which are heavily Democratic. These changes should not affect the composition of the district strongly. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Donald Payne (D)

Demographics: 55% African American, 17% Hispanic and 23% White

Partisan Data: 82% Obama, 18% McCain

Communities of Interest: Plainfield, Rahway, Linden, Elizabeth, East Orange, Newark

Since I split most of the towns in the district, I decided to just estimate the partisan data. Also, Payne's district changes a bit. I did not remove many areas from it but I added Plainfield and the marginal Union County suburbs for a few reasons: Plainfield has an African American majority and since the 10th is New Jersey's African American majority district, I decided it should be included. Also, the 10th helps shore up the 8th by taking in some marginal suburbs. I am not sure if the New Jersey legislature would go for this but since it would help keep the 10th African American majority, they would go for it. The district still remains heavily Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Harding

Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 75% White

Partisan Data: Obama 162,166 47%, McCain 184,827

Communities of Interest: Dover, Morristown

I weakened Frelinghuysen a bit by removing all of Republican Sussex and Warren Counties. I also removed parts of Morris County too. The new areas I put in the district are mostly in Somerset, Union and Essex Counties. The new areas are marginal but Obama overperformed in most of the district so Frelinghuysen should still be very safe. Status is Safe Republican.

12th District Albio Sires (D) West New York

Demographics: 10% African American, 53% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 30% White

Partisan Data: Obama 76% McCain 23%

Communities of Interest: Linden, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Hoboken, Newark

Since I split too many towns in this district, I had to estimate the partisan data. Overall, the district experiences few changes. I added all of North Bergen as well as Fairview in Bergen County. I also added a few neighborhoods in Elizabeth but besides this, I made few changes. Sires's district gets more Hispanic and he remains safe. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this redistricting plan? Do you have a redistricting map or idea you want to share? Please feel free to share your thoughts. 

How Christie won in New Jersey: Urban and Northern New Jersey

Here is my next and last post in analyzing county by county why Christie beat Corzine in New Jersey. Here is my first post: http://http//frogandturtle.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-christie-won-in-new-jersey-southern.html

Here is the link to the 2008 election results (red is Democratic and blue is Republican)http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Here is the link to the 2009 election results: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2009&fips=34&f=0&off=5&elect=0

Here is the link for New Jersey demographics by county: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_jersey_map.html


Urban New Jersey
This area contains Union, Essex and Hudson Counties. Christie underperformed the most in this part of the state with Corzine winning it almost 2-1. This was no surprise because Urban New Jersey is by far the most Democratic part of the state. It is minority majority and mostly resembles a city instead of suburbs. Christie also was unable to make large inroads here. In Hudson County where Obama won 73%-26%, Corzine won 69%-27% which only shows a decrease in the Democratic margin by 5 points, the smallest decrease of any county in New Jersey from 2008 to 2009. Hudson County is 35% White, one of the smallest percentages in New Jersey. Christie had a difficult time making inroads among minority voters. The main reason for Christie's small increase is that Corzine lives in Hoboken, a really nice town in Hudson County where alot of transplants from Manhattan live. Corzine's proximity was a large factor in Hudson County. Since Christie had a difficult time winning minority voters, it appears that Republicans can still win in New Jersey without having to make inroads among minorities if they want to win. Essex County which contains heavily Democratic Newark voted 67%-28% for Corzine while Obama won there 76%-23%. This shows a 14 point decrease in the Democratic margin, only 5 points below the statewide decrease of 19 points. Even though Corzine appeared to hold minorities, there are many independent high income white voters in the western part of Essex County that trended heavily toward Christie, causing the Democratic margin in Essex County to shrink. Union County is where Christie performed the best, decreasing Obama's 28 point margin to an eight point margin for Corzine. While Union County contains Elizabeth and Plainfield, two cities with large minority populations, Union County is basically Somerset County in the west with heavily white and high income Westfield and Summit. In my post about what to watch for in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, I said Corzine had to win Union County but ten points or more and unfortunately, he did not. Overall, Corzine did very well in Urban New Jersey by preventing Christie from making large inroads among minorities.

Northern New Jersey
Except for Passaic and Bergen Counties, Christie did very well here. He pulled a combined margin of about 30,000 votes out of Sussex and Warren Counties, even though Daggett did very well in them winning 9% and 10% of the vote there. Christie won his home county, Morris by 28 points and its residents are mostly high income white voters. The trend towards Christie over 2008 was 19 points, the same as the overall trend towards him in New Jersey. The reason for the trend not being too sharp in Morris County is party due to Daggett's strong 8% of the vote here and that Christie appeared to spend more time campaigning on the Shore than here. Passaic County is a different story where Corzine won 51%-44% and Obama won there by 22 points. Passaic County is a mixture of Hispanic immigrants in the city of Paterson and high income white voters in the suburbs along with some working class white voters. The Hispanics probably kept Passaic County from trending too far to the right but it appears that Christie did very well with white voters and Corzine failed to excite the base enough. Corzine won Bergen County by 3 points, only a 6 point decrease from Obama's 9 point win. Corzine was definitely helped by his running mate Loretta Weinberg who has held political office in Bergen County for more than 20 years. Bergen County is full of high income white voters and if Weinberg were not on the ballot, Christie would probably win Bergen County by about 7 points. Weinberg was not perfect because she was unpopular with party bosses which probably contributed to low turnout in Democratic areas. Also, Corzine's close proximity in Hudson County may have swayed a few voters.

So overall, what happened to make Corzine lose? On the issues, people swayed towards Christie not because he was a fantastic candidate. In New Jersey, almost all campaigns are negative so the candidates spent most of their time criticizing each other. People believed Corzine was an ineffective Governor who caused the New Jersey economy to sour while he sat in his office counting all his money. Also, Corzine made the mistake of not appeasing the New Jersey Democratic party. If he had chosen a popular party official as his running mate instead of Weinberg who was unpopular with the party, Corzine may have been able to boost turnout enough to offset Christie's margins. A good person for running mate would be Richard Codey who was the New Jersey Senate President. He was active Governor in 2005 and he is extremely popular with New Jersey's Democratic party. He was even considered last August as a candidate to replace Corzine on the ballot. The turnout levels in Democratic counties was about 50%-60% of the 2008 Presidential election turnout while turnout in Republican counties was closer to 66%. Christie on his part excited the base because he portrayed himself as one of the voters on the Shore or in the high income suburbs. He also took independents by highlighting New Jersey's poor economy. The main reason though is that Christie swept the high income voters who trended towards the Democrats in the 1990's because the Republicans were too socially Conservative. Now that the Republicans are downplaying their social Conservatism and highlighting the poor economy, they are able to win in the Northeast suburbs again. If Democrats want to start winning in New Jersey again, they have to excite the base while also reaching out to the white high income socially moderate but economically Conservative suburban voter.

How Christie Won In New Jersey: Southern and Central New Jersey

The New Jersey Gubernatorial race appeared to resemble one of the Obama/Clinton primaries in 2008. In those primaries, Clinton lead until about two weeks before the primary where Obama started kicking his volunteers into full geer. Then in the last few days (or the last second as in New Hampshire,) Clinton came from behind and won. The comparison does not include Clinton's tactics or political beliefs, it just includes what the polls showed in the primaries. In early 2009, Chris Christie (R) was ahead of incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) and in the summer, Christe lead by ten points. I was not too worried until then because since 1997, Republicans are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy. Christie painted himself as a new voice and blamed Corzine for the economic recession. Corzine highlighted his experience on Wall Street and pointed out how Christie had no real plan for fixing the economy (Christie, releasing the same economic plan twice does not mean you have two economic plans.) Then in September, the race became very narrow. Independent Chris Daggett began to take independents on the Jersey Shore and Republican suburbs around Somerset and Morris Counties. Corzine, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs began running ads with his gigantic warchest and overall spent around $23 million, about 12 million more than Christie. These two factors heavily contributed to Christie's slip in the polls but Daggett was the more prominent factor. He had numbers in the teens throughout October while Christie and Corzine hovered around 40%. This pattern remained until the last few days until election day on November 3rd. Many Daggett supporters realized that Daggett could not win so they began drifting towards Christie. This explains the final result where Christie beat Corzine and his running mate Loretta Weinberg from Bergen County 49%-45% with Daggett winning most of the remaining 6%. It looks like Charlie Brown finally got what he wanted. Corzine also learned that attacking your opponent's weight does NOT gain voters. On average, Corzine won 12 points less than Obama and the margin between the two races leaned towards the Republicans by 19 points. Corzine did not lose much ground among minority voters but Obama performed much better among independent white voters. Yes, the main reason Corzine lost was that Daggett's poll numbers fell down the drain. In this post though, I will explain how Christie won by analyzing each county in Southern and Central New Jersey. In an earlier post, I wrote about what to watch in New Jersey during election night. Besides analyzing the Gubernatorial race results, I will also compare to my last post. As in the last post, the geographical designations are in the same places. Okay, here are the links: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
for election results in 2008. Once you click the link, go to the icon choose another office, select gubernatorial races, select a year and you should find yourself a map.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_jersey_map.html
This is for New Jersey's demographic data. Click on a county and you will find it for each county.

Southern New Jersey
In my last post, I said that even Corzine wins, he should still lose Southern New Jersey. Corzine lost and he definitely lost Southern New Jersey. Camden County is the most urban county in Southern New Jersey and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. I said that Corzine needed to win by at least 15 points to win. Corzine barely missed, winning by 14 points. This explains that Christie was able to win white middle class independents but Christie lost Camden County because of heavily Democratic Camden City and its close suburbs. In my last post, I said that if Corzine won Gloucester County, he was sucessful with winning white voters in Camden County. Christie won Gloucester County by three points so Christie's sucess among the Camden County suburban voter was widespread. Gloucester County has the same demographics as Camden County without the inner city. I found heavily white and rural Salem County's result unexpected. Christie won by six points and since the county narrowly voted for Obama, I would have expected a larger Christie win. The answer to this question could be that Daggett peeled away enough Christie voters to narrow the margin. Daggett won 10% of the vote in Salem. Another interesting result is Cape May County where Obama won 45% of the vote but Corzine won 38%, higher than counties with similar counties on the Jersey Shore. This could be because Kim Guandango, Christie's running mate helped him in Monmouth and Ocean Counties further north but not at Cape May. Corzine won Cumberland County 50%-42% winning ten points less than Obama. I expected a smaller drop here due to large numbers of minority voters. As always, Atlantic County was the complete bellweather in the race as it was in 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2008. Christie won 49% of the vote and only 0.05% less than his statewide average, 48.75%. Atlantic County's population is 61% White, one point less than New Jersey's 62% White population. Atlantic County culturally may be closer to Las Vegas on the beach than the rest of New Jersey but Atlantic County has a close proportion to the rest of New Jersey of urban, suburban and rural areas. Ocean County just to Atlantic County's north voted for Christie by 38 points and the increase over McCain's margin in 2008 was only a bit above the average increase. The important point is the turnout which is about 2/3 the level of 2008, showing that Christie was able to turn out the base. Another important county was Burlington County which usually votes 1-2 points more Democratic than New Jersey and has similar demographics to Camden County. Christie won Burlington County by two points showing his narrow margin among the demographic of southwestern New Jersey white voters. Overall, Southern New Jersey voted similar to what I expected.

Central New Jersey:
Christie received large margins here, losing only one county. Christie lost Mercer County which contains heavily Democratic Trenton by only 16 points, 19 points less than Obama. Most of the voting was polarized with Christie gaining more than average over McCain while Christie gained less in heavily Democratic areas. Mercer County was a different story because even though it was a base county, the base did not turn out and Christie made inroads among the white voters here. In Monmouth County on the Shore, Christie's running Kim Guandango who is from Monmouth County definitely helped him there. Obama lost Monmouth County by three points even though it is an upper class county that is 77% White. Christie won by 31 points, improving over McCain's margin by 28 points. The large increase is probably due to not only Guandango but also that Daggett was unable to garner enough votes. He won only 6% of the vote and I expected the Shore would be a strong area for Daggett. If Daggett stayed strong and won somewhere around 15% of the vote, he probably would have reudced Christie 64,000 vote margin in Monmouth County by about 15,000. Another reason for Monmouth County's strong Christie result is that the New York suburban white voter is trending towards the Republicans. As long as the Republicans stay away from cultural issues, they can start winning these voters again. If Democrats want to keep these voters, they need to highlight how they will keep your job or create one for you. Moving onto Hunterdon County, Christie won there by 40 points, 27 points higher than McCain's 13 point margin. Hunterdon County has wealthy independents and the large shift towards Christie is probably because Obama overperformed with wealthy independents and they are reverting back to their normal voting patterns. Also, many of the wealthy voters may have trusted Wall Street so were angry that a former Wall Street corporate executive could not fix their economy. Somerset County is less Republican but contains many of the same voters as Hunterdon County. When I saw the Middlesex County result, I was pretty shocked. Obama won there by 22 points but Christie won by three. Middlesex County was not extremely white, its population was 53% White. Most of the minorities were Hispanic or Asians but Christie did not appear to make inroads among those groups. My explanation would be that Corzine failed to turn out the base and Christie did extremely well with white independents. Northwestern Middlesex County is close to his home, Mendhem so Christie's close proximity probably helped him.
Overall in Southern and Central New Jersey, Christie and Guandango's homes helped them win voters while sweeping independents and preventing Corzine from turning out his base.
My next post, this time analyzing Urban and Northern New Jersey should be up in about a week.

What to Watch for in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race

This race has definitely been turning in every direction possible. In the begining of 2009, Republican Chris Christie had a small lead. In the summer, Christie was leading easily and now, it looks like an extremely close race. I have seen a few suggestions that Corzine should win by two to three points. I actually have to agree with them. The main question I plan to address in this diary is what to watch for on election night. I am not planning to address campaign strategies, it will only be what you should watch in each county while the votes are reporting. I know a Gubernatorial election is extremely different from a Presidential election. It does not matter if Corzine or Christie wins the swing counties, it matters who racks up the most votes. For example, if Corzine won all the swing counties, it could require only a shift of a few votes to win them all. However, the swing counties determine how well Christe, Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett are doing in parts of New Jersey. During this diary, I will split New Jersey into four geographical areas. They are Southern New Jersey, Central New Jersey, Northern New Jersey and Urban New Jersey. The counties in Southern New Jersey are Burlington, Ocean Counties and all the counties south of them. The counties in Central NJ are Monmouth, Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex. Urban New Jersey is Union, Essex and Hudson Counties. All the other counties are in Northern New Jersey.

Southern New Jersey
This area leans Democratic in most elections. I believe that Christie should beat Corzine here for a few reasons: Corzine tends to do better than average in urban areas but below average in suburban areas. Southern New Jersey is mostly suburban except for Camden County which has 517,000 people. Southern New Jersey has more white voters and more independents than the rest of the state and Christie should do well with these groups. If Daggett grows stronger, southern New Jersey should be one of his strongholds. He goes to Ocean County every summer but then again, so do many other New Jersey residents. The only solid stronghold Corzine has here is Camden County which he won 60% of the vote in 2005 and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. Camden County is 63% White, just above the 62% White population of NJ. Therefore, I believe that Corzine needs to beat Christie in Camden by more than 15 points if Corzine wants to win. To do that, Corzine needs to maximize minority turnout but also win over middle class white voters in the Camden suburbs. Other counties in Southern Jersey are mostly swing counties except for Ocean County which is going solidly for Christie due to all the Conservative retirees there. Cape May County should also go the same way. Salem County is a small rural county which Obama barely won but Christie should win due to its working class voters. If Corzine were sucessful with white working class voters in Camden County, he would win Gloucester County which demographically is Camden County without the heavily Democratic city Camden and its close in suburbs. Cumberland County with Vineland is 53% White with large numbers of Hispanics and African Americans. Due to the large minority population, Christie should fail to win this county where Obama won 60% of the vote. If Christie wins Cumberland County, expect Christie to be moving to Trenton and Corzine moving back to Hoboken. Burlington County which gave Obama 59% of the vote seems to be one of the three big bellweathers. Even though it voted 2 points more for Obama than the rest of the state, the population is 72% White. Most of the white voters are the working class voters Corzine needs to win over along the Pennsylvania border from Salem County to Trenton. The other bellweather county is Atlantic County. In one sense, it is completely different from most of New Jersey. It represents beach communities while New Jersey has some nice beaches New Jersey is basically a suburb, not a beach resort or a gambling capital. Obama won 57% of the vote here, Corzine in 2000 won 50%, in 2005 Corzine won 53%. These percentages are also the percentages of the respective candidates statewide wins. Demographically, Atlantic County is like the rest of New Jersey. The population is 62% White, the same as New Jersey. Also, there is a correct balance between urban and suburban. Atlantic County has Atlantic City as the urban area, some suburban mainland communities and some rural areas in the Pine Barrens. This relates to New Jersey as a whole because there are urban areas in Essex and Hudson Counties with suburban counties further out and a few rural areas. Since Christie appears more popular on the shore, I could see him winning Atlantic County by one or even two points but still losing. This is why I believe that if Corzine wins Atlantic County, he wins the Governorship.

Central New Jersey
I will start with Mercer County where Trenton, New Jersey's capital is located. With heavily African American Trenton and Princeton University, Chrisite has absolutely no chance winning in Mercer County. John McCain even failed to win a single municipality in Mercer County which explains why he won only 31% of the vote here. There are some working class voters here but not as many as the other Delaware River counties. Corzine's percentage should drop below Obama's because Corzine will not get Obama's boost of African American and University turnout even though Obama's recent visit may help a bit. To hold down Chrisite, Corzine needs to beat him here 3:2 and if Corzine can do that, this shows he was able to bring Democrats out to the polls. Monmouth County along the shore is 77% White with a mix of Conservatives and middle class voters should be an easy win for Christie and his Lieutenant Governor candidate Kim Guadango who lives there. This area is possibly strong Daggett territory so if Daggett gets more than 20% of the vote here, expect Christie to be in trouble. Hunterdon County is a high income Conservative area where Christie needs to slow down Daggett's advances. Somerset County should be watched carefully. It has high income voters and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 lost the county. Somerset County definitely has been trending Democratic with Obama winning 52% of the vote and Somerset County barely trended toward Bush from 2000 to 2004, even with 9/11. Corzine's sucess as a businessman may appeal to the high income voters but Chrisite's close proximity in western Union County and the independent streak of the voters should give Somerset County to Christie. Daggett has a chance to overperform here among all the independents so if Christie can carry Somerset County by more than 15 points, he definitely has won. Christie can still win with a few less votes here. Middlesex County is 53% White. It does not have a singificantly high African American or even Hispanic population, Middlesex County is 19% Asian. Middlesex County is not the most important county in New Jersey but Corzine should try to keep his margin at about 10 points.

Urban New Jersey
This is the smallest area I designated in New Jersey. There is a fair argument for including Passaic and Bergen Counties but most of those counties are suburban. Hudson, Essex and Union County are all expected to go for Corzine and Daggett should win few votes in these areas because independents are less abundant here. Also, an important group are Hispanics who are 41% of the population in Hudson County. Corzine has not cracked down harder on immigrants but he has not pushed to help them. Christie however does not address immigration directly on his website. Corzine does not either but he does address diversity, has worked to improve health care for minorities and he started a panel that discussed immigration reform. Since Christie and Daggett represent the more Conservative suburban voters, I do not see them making inroads in Hudson County. Corzine lives in Hoboken which is a really nice Liberal town filled with transplants from Manhattan. Corzine has always overperformed in Hudson County, winning 75% of the vote there in 2005 in his sucessful Gubernatorial race against Republican Douglas Forrester. Corzine won 53% of the vote, like John Kerry but Kerry won 67% of the vote in Hudson County, much worse than Corzine. Another county to watch is Essex County which contains Newark and is heavily Democratic. Christie should make few inroads there due to its large minority population. Corzine would at least need to receive about 60% of the vote there if he wants to win. Union County is probably the most crucial county in Urban New Jersey. It is basically Essex County in the east and Somerset County in the west. Even though it is Christie's home county, Corzine should still win it due to margins in Elizabeth. If Christie can pull it close in his home area, it shows he is winning overall. This is why Christie needs to hold Corzine below a 10 point win in Union County.

Northern New Jersey
Except for Passiac County and possibly Bergen County, Christie looks set to sweep this area. Warren and Sussex Counties are both heavily Republican and lightly populated so Christie should have no trouble winning them. Morris County also looks like a set Christie win because Morris County is traditionally Republican and McCain won 54% of the vote there. The issue for Christie in Morris County is that Daggett should be able to garner votes there. During the election, I expect Christie's and McCain's percentages to remain similar and if Christe beats Corzine by more than 20 points, Christie's percentage in Morris County should be near McCain's. If Christie wins Morris County by less than 20 points, it will show Daggett made inroads or Corzine overperformed so Christie needs to win by more than 20 points. Passaic County is the only county in northern New Jersey that Corzine looks set to win. If Corzine does not win Passaic County, it will demonstrate he failed to increase turnout in the central cities and therefore he will lose. I believe if he is reelected, he will have won Passaic County by six points or more. In 2000, Corzine won Passaic County by eight points and won the Senate seat by three. Passaic County includes heavily Hispanic Paterson but also some Republican suburbs which are outnumbered by Democratic areas. The real county to watch is Bergen County. Obama won 54% of the vote, 3 points less than his 57% statewide win. Corzine lost the county by three points in 2000. The White population is above average for New Jersey. On paper, it appears that Corzine can lose Bergen County but still beat Christie. I would agree except the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate is Loretta Weinberg who is from Bergen County. Weinberg is 74 years old but neither Christie nor Daggett has made her age an issue. She represents that 37th Legislative district which is mostly in southeastern Bergen County, a Democratic area. Someone running for Lieutenant Governor should not have the biggest influence on the voters but Weinberg has been in Bergen County politics since Gerald Ford was president. She was elected in 1975 to countywide office and has remained in Bergen County politics since. Her problem is that party bosses are not crazy about her but that should not impact Bergen County as much as other counties. If Weinberg had a large effect on the campaign, Corzine could win Bergen County and still lose to Christie but if Weinberg's effect was minimal, Corzine could lose Bergen County but still beat Christie.

Here are the last words: If you look at the final map and see Corzine won a line of counties stretching from Bergen to Cumberland, Corzine has won. Also, ask yourself; is Christie pulling up large margins along the shore, is there large turnout in Urban New Jersey, how heavily is Union County swinging towards Corzine, who is leading in Bergen County and how large is Corzine's margin in Camden County?

New Jersey Redistricting Maps

Northeast New Jersey

Central western New Jersey

Newark/Jersey City

Central New Jersey

Southern New Jersey

These are the maps for redistricting that I made with Dave's Redistricting App. You can view the write up for these on swing state project. Sorry for the awkwardness of a few of the maps and that this is not the best quality in the world.