How will the housekeeper scandal affect Whitman?

 The California Governorship is one of those races where the leader keeps changing. In early 2009, former Governor Jerry Brown (D) led former ebay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by double digits. In late 2009 when she started spending her money in the primary, she strongly cut Brown's lead and the lead stayed that way throughout early 2010. Close to the June 8th primary though, Brown pulled ahead again by a few points. His lead of about 5 points stayed intact throughout most of the summer until August came along. I have frequently mentioned in other posts that August is a bad month for Democrats. This fact was no exception for Brown who saw Whitman's $104 million at that time work on voters. In early September, Whitman was leading but that was before Brown decided to campaign. Before September, Brown had barely campaigned. A month ago, I was seeing Brown become the next Phil Angelides (D) who ran against Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in 2006. Angelides barely campaigned at all and lost by 17 points.

Fortunately, Brown realized he could not become the next Angelides so he began to campaign. He ran ads like a funny one with Meg Whitman's nose growing longer after he clearly showed how she lied. These ads helped him get a lead of 5 points and in the last week, the outlook is getting better and better for Brown. In a debate last week, Whitman appeared over rehearsed while Brown was personable but also knew his issues. Unless a candidate makes a major gaffe in a debate, bounces from debates do not last forever. I expected Brown to continue to have a five point lead. This was before the housekeeper Nicky Diaz Santiallo came onto the scene. Whitman was discovered firing her undocumented housekeeper who was like family for nine years. The news story is everywhere and if you are in California, I do not know how you have NOT heard about it. It makes Whitman hypocritical when she said people need to crack on illegal immigrants. The media is saying how dangerous the story is for Whitman because it will send Hispanics flying away from her. My question is, will it hurt her with everyone?

One group it will certainly hurt Whitman with is Hispanics. Before the scandal broke, Whitman was poised to make strong inroads among Hispanics. She has been courting this group and many polls showed Brown leading because he was pulling it close with whites and not because of margins among Hispanics. Whitman said she treated Santiallo like part of her family until Whitman learned that Santiallo was undocumented. Then Whitman fired her and tore herself away from Santiallo. Many Hispanics found Whitman unsympathetic and I know someone who told me "I have a Hispanic friend who generally votes Republican but after the housekeeper scandal, she is fully behind Brown." Now that Whitman lost her inroads among Hispanics, what normally Democratic group can Whitman win now? Winning middle class whites in the Central Valley/Inland Empire is not enough to win.

No one has mentioned this but the housekeeper scandal can give Whitman an opening with one group. She could pick up upper class white voters who may feel the same way she does with hiring undocumented immigrants. Many of them may have Hispanic housekeepers and worry that they could be undocumented. Also, upper class white voters may feel worried they will hire undocumented workers s so they understand how Whitman feels. Whitman cannot use this issue to make inroads among all white voters because many of the liberals will dislike Whitman's firing of Santiallo. The more moderate whites Whitman could try to pick up are the upper class white voters in the southern Bay Area, Santa Barbara and the LA coast south of Venice. Still, whatever gains Whitman makes among these voters will be offset by Hispanic losses. If Whitman wants to win though, she has to take control of the issue and try to appeal to upper class white moderates.

Another group that will be affected by the housekeeper scandal is the teabagger supporting middle class whites in Inland California. Some of them may hire housekeepers but most of the voters want undocumented immigrants to leave and they will be unable to help contribute to the economy and take jobs no one else wants in California. Some of those voters will see Whitman as not tough enough on Santiallo while many of the Hispanics will. The Inland conservatives may think that once Whitman knew Santiallo was illegal, Whitman should have called the Border Patrol in 2009 or in 2003 when her husband received the letter. Still, will this story sway voters because are the Inland conservatives going to vote for Brown? Now with Jill Armstrong, Whitman's ex-nanny backing up Santiallo, the story should stay for a longer time. With the story still dominating the headlines, it may convince those conservatives to leave the Governor's race blank. Whitman cannot win without the big conservative turnout in the Central Valley (for more info on where Whitman needs to win, check my post California Baselines )

Overall, the housekeeper scandal is definitely affecting Whitman with every demographic. More Hispanic voters dislike her, richer whites may understand her and the Inland conservatives are less enthusiastic about her. Still, many pundits are overestimating the damage of the story. Unless the story gets very large, the Inland conservatives will probably not sit out the election as a protest vote. Yes, the story will move Hispanics toward Brown but it might shift a few rich white voters who associate Brown with the unions and see identifying with Whitman on the immigration issue as the final reason to move toward her. Overall, this story definitely hurts Whitman but not as much as the pundits say, unless the story grows and stays.

California Baselines

  With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California's Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman's $104 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Once Jerry Brown starts campaigning and the unions supporting him spend more money too, he should be able to pick up a few points. Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Anyway, this is going to be a close race. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.

The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/california_map.html clearer map of California

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2008 results

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_general/ag.pdf 2006 Attorney General results

(click for whole image)

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%
Blue: Brown 56%-69%
Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

County Names, Brown, Meg Whitman, Percentages

Alameda 281,992 122,008 70%-30%

Alpine 228 223 51%-49%

Amador 4,056 8,215 33%-67%

Butte 25,182 38,977 39%-61%

Calaveras 5,175 10,045 34%-66%

Colusa 1,249 2,942 30%-70%

Contra Costa 173,524 121,084 59%-41%

Del Norte 2,407 3,788 39%-61%

El Dorado 20,174 40,197 33%-67%

Fresno 59,988 117,755 34%-66%

Glenn 1,766 4,655 28%-72%

Humboldt 22,494 19,085 54%-46%

Imperial 12,844 12,389 51%-49%

Inyo 1,999 3,547 36%-64%

Kern 41,243 110,109 27%-73%

Kings 6,561 16,259 29%-71%

Lake 8,346 8,312 50%-50%

Lassen 1,801 5,624 24%-76%

Los Angeles 1,246,840 888,300 58%-42%

Madera 7,606 20,002 28%-72%

Marin 62,269 29,101 68%-32%

Mariposa 1,975 4,315 31%-69%

Mendocino 16,088 10,029 62%-38%

Merced 16,694 24,938 40%-60%

Modoc 664 2,209 23%-77%

Mono 1,593 2,027 44%-56%

Monterey 49,391 34,965 59%-41%

Napa 21,903 16,864 57%-43%

Nevada 14,975 21,196 41%-59%

Orange 267,713 482,183 36%-64%

Placer 36,548 76,429 32%-68%

Plumas 2,412 4,756 34%-66%

Riverside 165,563 255,181 39%-61%

Sacramento 163,902 188,955 46%-54%

San Benito 6,553 6,309 51%-49%

San Bernadino 161,731 223,802 42%-58%

San Diego 342,077 458,103 43%-57%

San Francisco 188,722 60,745 76%-24%

San Joaquin 58,303 78,398 43%-57%

San Luis Obisbo 34,966 51,584 40%-60%

San Mateo 125,577 71,561 64%-36%

Santa Barbara 55,411 58,603 49%-51%

Santa Clara 245,302 187,329 57%-43%

Santa Cruz 56,957 26,071 69%-31%

Shasta 13,847 38,406 27%-73%

Sierra 381 913 29%-71%

Siskiyou 4,703 9,314 34%-66%

Solano 56,297 48,735 54%-46%

Sonoma 94,217 54,860 63%-37%

Stanislaus 39,683 65,299 38%-62%

Sutter 6,106 15,357 28%-72%

Tehama 4,366 11,598 27%-73%

Trinity 1,717 2,456 41%-59%

Tulare 17,799 50,792 26%-74%

Tuloumne 5,883 11,891 33%-67%

Ventura 96,762 124,914 44%-56%

Yolo 28,380 23,460 55%-45%

Yuba 4,173 9,737 30%-70%

Total 4,397,078 4,396,901 50%-50%