Races Democrats CAN Feel Optimistic About

 Go to any political website. Look in any politics section of the newspaper. Talk to any political analyst (including this one.) What do they tell you about the upcoming midterm election? They tell you that the Democrats will have a horrible night, they will lose the House, possibly lose 50 seats (that's the median for many projections now,) and almost lose the entire Senate. The Republicans also look to pick up numerous Gubernatorial races. Although I have seen people suggest that 2012 will be a good Democratic year, I am not looking too far ahead right now. Anyway, looking two years ahead in politics is like looking 200 years ahead into the future. Anyway, you probably see my diary title about Democrats having races to feel happy about. For the reasons I just listed about them losing the House and having a slim Senate majority, how can they be happy? Well, this post is about races where the Democrats can feel optimistic because although we ARE losing many seats, we are looking to pick up a few too. The Senate offers no pickup opportunities though except for Kentucky but most polls have shown Rand Paul (R) leading in the high single digits after Jack Conway's (D) ad criticizing Rand Paul's religion backfired. The Democrats are looking to pick up some Governorships and even a few House seats. I will start with the list of Governorships the Democrats have a strong chance at picking up, then I will go to the House seats:

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is retiring and former Governor Jerry Brown (D) is leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). Brown's campaigning in September and October was extremely skilled, making up for lost ground over the summer. He defeated Whitman in the debates. Then the housekeeper scandal surfaced and many voters viewed Whitman as mean while her strategy was to be friendly. Brown's closing arguments are even stronger, with an ad highlighting Whitman's similarities to Schwarzenegger and another ad saying how even Whitman admits Jerry Brown did well as Governor. A recent PPP poll showed Brown leading by nine points. That sounds right to me.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) was one of the most popular Govenors in the nation but she is retiring. It is a Repulican year but Connecticut is still a Democratic state. Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (D) is leading against businessman Tom Foley (R). Malloy won a primary against rich Ned Lamont (D) who challenged Benedict Arnold Joe Lieberman (I) in the primary in 2006 but lost the Senate race to him. Foley is not a bad campaigner but most polls show Malloy with a 5-7 point lead.

Florida: Charlie Crist (I) left the Governorship and ran for Senate. Both races looked competitive at first but Republicans have the lead in the Senate race. They were not able to seal the deal for the Gubernatorial race though. State CFO Alex Sink (D) is locked in a battle with Rick Scott (R) who should be in jail for fraud in his former company's billing practices. Scott is outspending Sink and the Republican year are keeping this race very close but Scott's ethical problems prevent him from gaining a clear lead. Sink is also personally popular and she is popular in the Tallahassee area which has been trending Republican recently. The polling pattern is that the leader changes every week and the leader has a 3 point lead. Scott has a small lead of 2 points now. The question is will he hold the lead or will the Democrats pick up this Governorship?

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) proved that Republicans can be elected Governor in Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona (R) needs to prove two Republican Governors can be elected consecutively. Unfortunately for him, the polling suggests that will not happen. Hawaii's 1st District Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) is leading by eight points in most polls. It is a Republican year but Obama is still popular in Hawaii. He recently cut an ad for Abercrombie which seems to be working.

Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) is retiring and may be a Presidential candidate in 2012. I do not expect him to win the nomination but anyway, this post is about the Governor's race. Former Senator and owner of Dayton Stores, Mark Dayton (D) is running for Governor against Tom Emmer (R). The Midwest is looking mostly bad for the Democrats but not in Minnesota. A recent poll showed Dayton leading by ten points. An independent candidate is on the ballot too though and independents can get high shares of the vote in Minnesota (Jesse Ventura (I) was Governor in the late 90's.) The independent may take more votes from Dayton than Emmer but Dayton should still win.

Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) was able to win easily despite Vermont's blue trend but Douglas is now retiring. Democrats should be holding a big lead in this race but instead, it is a close race between State Senator Peter Shumlin (D) and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R). Dubie is a moderate and Vermont likes its moderate Republicans AND this is a Republican year. Vermont is still trending blue though and most polls show Shumlin leading by a few points. Therefore, Shumlin should win but it will be close.

Now onto the House:

AZ-03: John Shadegg (R) vacated his seat and now Ben Quayle (R) is running for it against John Hulburd (D). This seat leans Republican but Quayle ran into problems when he called Obama "the worst president in history," and ran an ad where he played with kids that were not his. The race leans toward Quayle at the moment but since he is a flawed candidate, Democrats have a shot here. Having Quayle lose would help make it a good election night for the Democrats.

CA-03: Democrats are not favored to win this race but they have a strong shot at it. Obama barely won this district in 2008 and Dan Lungren (R), the incumbent still won. Conventional wisdom says that any Republican incumbent who survived 2008 can win in 2010. This year, the Democrats have Ami Bera (D) who has consistently out raised Lungren and campaigned extremely hard. Although most polls show Lungren with a small lead, Bera could pull an upset.

DE-AL: Michael Castle (R) vacated his house seat to run for Senate (and he later lost to Christine O'Donnell.) With a popular Republican no longer holding the House seat, Democrats nominated a strong candidate in John Carney (D). All polls show Glen Urquhart (R) behind in low double digits so this will be an easy Democratic pickup.

IL-10: Even Kerry won this suburban district by 6 points so the Democrats keep trying to find someone to win here. It has been almost impossible for them to beat former incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Now that Kirk vacated his seat to run for Senate, Democrats have a great chance at winning. Dan Seals (D) is running against teabagger Bob Dold (R) and we know what suburban voters think of extremist teabaggers. Still, this is a Republican year so the race is close. I expect a Seals win here though.

LA-02: Joe Cao (R) won in a 75% Obama district where Obama is still popular against corrupt Bill Jefferson (D) who put illegal contributions in his freezer. Cao is in trouble now though because he is up against Cedric Richmond (D) who has no money in his freezer. Yes, this is a Republican year, yes Cao is moderate but this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican unless the Democrat is as corrupt as Jefferson.

WA-08: Dave Reichert (R) is in a district that leans Democratic. He won in 2006 and 2008 which were strong Democratic years. Therefore, it appeared that this year, he would win because it is a Republican year. Apparently, he believed that so he got caught napping as Suzan DelBane (D) got closer in the polls. Reichert lost the endorsement of some of the area's major newspapers which were crucial to his winning in 2006 and 2008. Reichert is campaigning now but this race is getting closer. It will be a better election night than expected if Democrats can win seats like this one.

Overall, the Democrats will get kicked on November 2nd but they still have pickup opportunities in the Governorships and even seven in the House. It is hard to ignore all the losses the Democrats will face but there will be bright spots!
Feel free to share your thoughts on these races.

California Baselines

  With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California's Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman's $104 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Once Jerry Brown starts campaigning and the unions supporting him spend more money too, he should be able to pick up a few points. Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Anyway, this is going to be a close race. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.

The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/california_map.html clearer map of California

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2008 results

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_general/ag.pdf 2006 Attorney General results

(click for whole image)

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%
Blue: Brown 56%-69%
Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

County Names, Brown, Meg Whitman, Percentages

Alameda 281,992 122,008 70%-30%

Alpine 228 223 51%-49%

Amador 4,056 8,215 33%-67%

Butte 25,182 38,977 39%-61%

Calaveras 5,175 10,045 34%-66%

Colusa 1,249 2,942 30%-70%

Contra Costa 173,524 121,084 59%-41%

Del Norte 2,407 3,788 39%-61%

El Dorado 20,174 40,197 33%-67%

Fresno 59,988 117,755 34%-66%

Glenn 1,766 4,655 28%-72%

Humboldt 22,494 19,085 54%-46%

Imperial 12,844 12,389 51%-49%

Inyo 1,999 3,547 36%-64%

Kern 41,243 110,109 27%-73%

Kings 6,561 16,259 29%-71%

Lake 8,346 8,312 50%-50%

Lassen 1,801 5,624 24%-76%

Los Angeles 1,246,840 888,300 58%-42%

Madera 7,606 20,002 28%-72%

Marin 62,269 29,101 68%-32%

Mariposa 1,975 4,315 31%-69%

Mendocino 16,088 10,029 62%-38%

Merced 16,694 24,938 40%-60%

Modoc 664 2,209 23%-77%

Mono 1,593 2,027 44%-56%

Monterey 49,391 34,965 59%-41%

Napa 21,903 16,864 57%-43%

Nevada 14,975 21,196 41%-59%

Orange 267,713 482,183 36%-64%

Placer 36,548 76,429 32%-68%

Plumas 2,412 4,756 34%-66%

Riverside 165,563 255,181 39%-61%

Sacramento 163,902 188,955 46%-54%

San Benito 6,553 6,309 51%-49%

San Bernadino 161,731 223,802 42%-58%

San Diego 342,077 458,103 43%-57%

San Francisco 188,722 60,745 76%-24%

San Joaquin 58,303 78,398 43%-57%

San Luis Obisbo 34,966 51,584 40%-60%

San Mateo 125,577 71,561 64%-36%

Santa Barbara 55,411 58,603 49%-51%

Santa Clara 245,302 187,329 57%-43%

Santa Cruz 56,957 26,071 69%-31%

Shasta 13,847 38,406 27%-73%

Sierra 381 913 29%-71%

Siskiyou 4,703 9,314 34%-66%

Solano 56,297 48,735 54%-46%

Sonoma 94,217 54,860 63%-37%

Stanislaus 39,683 65,299 38%-62%

Sutter 6,106 15,357 28%-72%

Tehama 4,366 11,598 27%-73%

Trinity 1,717 2,456 41%-59%

Tulare 17,799 50,792 26%-74%

Tuloumne 5,883 11,891 33%-67%

Ventura 96,762 124,914 44%-56%

Yolo 28,380 23,460 55%-45%

Yuba 4,173 9,737 30%-70%

Total 4,397,078 4,396,901 50%-50%

Colorado Baselines 2010

A few weeks ago, it appeared that Colorado would hold two very competitive races. One race would be the Colorado Gubernatorial race. John Hickelooper (D), the mayor of Denver is facing the former Western Slope congressman Scott McInnis (R). Then McInnis plagiarized so he has imploded. One Republican, Tom Tancredo from conservative Denver suburbs has announced he will run as a Constitution Party member. With the Republican vote split, Hickelooper should win easily unless the Republicans line up with Tancredo. The Senatorial race is a more interesting story. Michael Bennett (D) will either face Jane Norton (R) or Ken Buck (R) who are both very conservative and are destroying each other in the primary. Most polls show a close race here.

Although election night is far away, I have here a map with the baselines. The baselines show how each county in Colorado will vote if the race is tied. You may have seen my earlier baseline posts on races in Maryland, Nevada, Florida and/or Oregon. I put in results from individual candidates to get baselines there but now the only results I am using for the baselines are Obama's 2008 election results. At first, it does not seem too accurate but it probably is because Obama's improvement over Kerry in 2004 was mostly uniform across the state. The only place that may go more Democratic than the map suggests is the Hispanic areas in southern Colorado. The Denver suburbs might vote more Republican but since there are two Denver area Democrats on the ticket, it could tilt the suburbs towards the Democrats. I am also expecting Democratic turnout in the Rocky Mountain counties to drop a bit if the Democrats are unable to excite voters there. Also, I will soon add exit poll baselines with demographic numbers from 2004.
Anyway, the Democrats need to win by pulling out big margins in Denver and Boulder, winning the suburban swing counties of Jefferson and Araphoe and win enough ski area counties. The Republicans need to win by winning big in Douglas and El Paso Counties. They also need to do well in rural Colorado and the Western Slope by winning big in Mesa County. Without further ado, here is the map of the baselines

Here is a link for a clearer map of Colorado: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/colorado_map.html

Dark Red: Republican 65%+
Red: Republican 55%-64%
Light Red: Republican 50%-54%
Light Blue: Democrat 50%-54%
Blue: Democrat 55%-64%
Dark Blue: Democrat 65%+
County Names Democrat Republican


Adams 54% 46%

Alamosa 53% 47%

Arapahoe 52% 48%

Archuleta 39% 61%

Baca 22% 78%

Bent 38% 62%

Boulder 69% 31%

Broomfield 51% 49%

Chaffee 45% 55%

Cheyenne 15% 85%

Clear Creek 55% 45%

Conejos 52% 48%

Costilla 70% 30%

Crowley 32% 68%

Custer 31% 69%

Delta 29% 71%

Denver 72% 28%

Dolores 27% 73%

Eagle 57% 43%

Elbert 26% 74%

El Paso 36% 64%

Fremont 31% 69%

Garfield 45% 55%

Gilpin 57% 43%

Grand 45% 55%

Gunnison 60% 40%

Hinsdale 37% 63%

Huerfano 51% 49%

Jackson 26% 74%

Jefferson 50% 50%

Kiowa 19% 81%

Kit Carson 23% 77%

Lake 58% 42%

La Plata 53% 47%

Larmier 50% 50%

Douglas 37% 63%

Las Animas 49% 51%

Lincoln 21% 79%

Logan 29% 71%

Mesa 31% 69%

Mineral 41% 59%

Moffat 24% 76%

Montezuma 36% 64%

Montrose 31% 69%

Morgan 33% 67%

Otero 40% 60%

Ouray 50% 50%

Park 42% 58%

Philips 23% 77%

Prowers 29% 71%

Pueblo 53% 47%

Rio Blanco 17% 83%

Rio Grande 41% 59%

Routt 59% 41%

Saguache 60% 40%

San Juan 50% 50%

San Miguel 73% 27%

Pitkin 70% 30%

Sedgwick 31% 69%

Summit 62% 38%

Teller 32% 68%

Washington 17% 83%

Weld 41% 59%

Yuma 21% 79%

The First Gubernatorial Rankings for 2010

You may have seen my Senate rankings that I posted about two weeks ago. Unfortunately, those rankings did not cover all the races because they just mentioned the races I believed were most likely to switch parties. In the Senate, there appeared to be a large amount of movement in what party picked up seats. In the Gubernatorial elections though, there appears to be even more movement because of many term limited Governors. Many Governorships are switching parties mostly because it is easier to become Governor based on personal popularity instead of what letter is next to your name on the ballot. In Wyoming, the Governor is Dave Freudental (D) but in Hawaii, the Governor is Linda Lingle (R). Both of these Governorships should switch parties and by looking at the polls, it appears that people are becoming more partisan. Democratic states seem to be leaning towards Democratic Governors and Republican states are leaning towards Republican Governors. There are a few exceptions though including Illinois where unpopular Pat Quinn (D) may lose to the conservative Downstate candidate Bill Brady (R) who has far right views on a woman's right to choose. Another exception is Georgia where former Governor Roy Barnes (D) is running. Right now, I am looking at the Republican getting an overall gain of 1-3 seats. Now here are the rankings:

Safe Dem (3 held seats, 1 potential Democratic pickup)
Arkansas (Beebe), Hawaii OPEN (Lingle), New Hampshire (Lynch), New York OPEN (Paterson)

Likely Dem (0 seats)

Lean Dem (4 held seats, 3 potential Democratic pickups)
Colorado OPEN (Ritter), Conneticut OPEN (Rell), Florida OPEN (Crist), Georgia OPEN (Perdue), Maine OPEN (Baldacci), Maryland (O'Malley), Oregon OPEN (Kulogoshi)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic (2 held seats, 2 potential Democratic pickups)
California OPEN (Schwarzenegger), Massachusetts (Patrick), Minnesota OPEN (Pawlenty), New Mexico OPEN (Richardson)

REAL Toss Ups (2 Democratic seats, 2 Republican seats)
Illinois (Quinn), Ohio (Strickland), Rhode Island OPEN (Carcieri), Vermont OPEN (Douglas)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican (1 held seat, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Michigan OPEN (Granholm), Texas (Perry), Wisconsin OPEN (Doyle)

Lean Republican (2 held seats, 1 potential Republican pickup)
Arizona (Brewer), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Pennsylvania OPEN (Rendell)

Likely Republican (4 held seats, 3 potential Republican pickups)
Alabama OPEN (Riley), Iowa (Culver), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Oklahoma OPEN (Henry), South Carolina OPEN (Sanford), Tennessee OPEN (Bredesen)

Solid Republican (4 held seats, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Alaska (Parnell), Idaho (Otter), Kansas OPEN (Parkinson), Nebraska (Heineman), South Dakota (Rounds), Utah (Herbert), Wyoming OPEN (Freudental)

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours? Please feel free to shrae your thoughts.

What to watch this election night for California races

On May 18th, everyone called that day the Super Tuesday for primaries. They apparently were not thinking about this Tuesday, June 8th. Today, about a dozen states are holding their primaries. Some states like Virginia only have primaries for House and State legislature while states like Arkansas have very contested Senatorial primaries. The state I will examine is my home state, California. Today, we have important primaries for many of our statewide seats. California had the potential to have even more. First, Jerry Brown sealed the Democratic nomination once Newsom dropped out of the primary although polls showed he did not have a strong chance. Although no one has dropped out of the Gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican primaries, Fiorina and Whitman are leading by more than 20 points in most polls. In March, Whitman was leading by 40 points and in early May, her lead was in the single digits. She came ahead again by writing herself another check so she has spent the most money of any candidate ever. Fiorina earned her money after running Hewlett Packard to the ground and she is now using that to defeat Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore. I see Chuck DeVore signs all around but he is not winning, he just has very enthusiastic supporters. The races I will examine are both Attorney General Primaries, the Lieutenant Governor priamry and Prop 16. I will discuss what to watch in each of them and here are the three most important factors: turnout, turnout and turnout.

For the Democrats Attorney General primary, the candidates are San Francisco Attorney Kamala Harris, Facebook's former privacy officer Chris Kelly, Rocky Delgadillo from the Los Angeles area, Pedro Nava from Santa Barbara and Ted Lieu. The three main candidates are Harris, Kelly and Delgadillo although polls show the race is between Kelly and Harris. A recent Survey USA poll showed Harris leading by 6 points. For Harris to win, she needs to win big margins in the Bay Area. Kelly should win big in the Los Angeles area although Harris received the LA Times endorsement. Delgadillo though might steal votes from Kelly, especially among Hispanics. The Survey USA poll has Kelly and Delgadillo tied in the Inland Empire. While watching the returns, ask yourself these questions: is Harris getting the margins she needs in the Bay Area and the Central Valley? Is Kelly winning in the Inland Empire or is he tied with Delgadillo? Most importantly, is Kelly crushing Harris in Los Angeles or is it a three way tie?


In the Republican Attorney General primary, Steve Cooley from Los Angeles goes against Orange County State Senator Tom Harman and teabagger John Eastman. Cooley is the more moderate candidate and he is establishment backed. This resembles many previous primaries this year where most people voted for teabaggers. The problem was that the teabagger divided the vote, allowing the establishment candidate to receive the nomination. This may happen in this election because a recent Survey USA poll showed Cooley leading by five points. Although Cooley is popular in the Los Angeles area, Eastman should win Orange County because he is from there. The Survey USA poll shows Harman leading in Northern California even though he has no strong connection to the area. Remember to ask yourself these questions while the results arrive: how high is the Los Angeles area turnout? Is Harman actually winning in the Bay Area and the Central Valley or is Eastman splitting the vote with him? Most importantly, who is winning the Inland Empire?

The Lieutenant Governor primaries are less active. For the Republicans, moderate Abel Maldonado is leading against Nevada County conservative Sam Aanestad. Maldonado has his Central Valley state Senate open with a close race brewing. This is another blog post for another time though. The Democrats have a more interesting race. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom faces Janice Hahn, the sister of a former Los Angeles mayor. Although the Hahn family is popular in LA, the LA Times endorsed Newsom. Although Newsom should probably win by getting high turnout from the Bay Area, Hahn may get close if there is low turnout. Newsom needs to win big margins in Northern California while keeping down her margins in Southern California. Although the state’s main political divide is Coastal vs. Inland California in the general election now, the primaries still have the NorCal vs. SoCal divide. While the results come in, ask yourself these questions: Is Hahn winning LA County by more than 30 points? Is Newsom winning the Bay Area by more than 30 points? If Hahn is winning the Inland Empire, is she winning it in the double digits? Most importantly, how high is the Bay Area turnout?

Prop 16 is the last race I will examine but it is very intriguing. PG&E put Prop 16 on the ballot and they are spending $46 million so it will pass. The ads claim it is about the taxpayers right to vote but they “forget” to mention it has to be 2/3 of the taxpayers. If passed, PG&E has its competition eliminated and it can raise electricity rates. If a county does not like that and wants to start a new electricity provider, it will not be able to. PG&E will start spending to prevent 2/3 of the people from supporting a new one and PG&E should get at least 1/3 of the voters to support PG&E. A Survey USA poll had the No side leading by 4 points. The poll also showed that minorities are split on their opinions of Prop 16 as well as LA County. Also, a good number of Republicans are against Prop 16 but many Democrats are for it. I would expect San Diego and Orange Counties to go strongly for Prop 16 because many people there care about taxes. The poll also showed the Central Valley mostly opposing Prop 16. You should remember these questions to ask yourself while the results come in: is the Central Valley actually opposing Prop 16? How high is the margin and the turnout in the Bay Area? Most importantly, which side is winning LA County?

How Pat Quinn Wins

A Quick note: this is my first post in a long time that focuses on race analysis without too many demographics. I used to have posts similar to this one in 2008 and early 2009 but I stopped because the horse race world was quiet. Now that election day is coming closer, I will do race analysis posts similar to my 2008 ones. Also, I will soon bring back the Senatorial and Gubernatorial rankings. Now onto the post:

In Illinois, Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached in early 2009 because he tried to sell Obama's Senate seat. Pat Quinn (D), the Lieutenant Governor replaced him. Now Quinn faces Downstate State Senator Bill Brady (R) who is very conservative. Brady won an upset by 200 votes in a crowded field in the February primary with big margins Downstate but he was crushed in the Chicagoland area. The campaign has barely started but Quinn is getting off to a poor start. Recently, he replaced his running mate Scott Lee Cohen (D) because Cohen was accused of domestic violence. The new candidate, Sheila Simon (D) is a professor from Downstate and yes, she is the daughter of the late Senator (not singer) Paul Simon (D). Although no poll have been released on this race since May 2nd, all polls show Brady with a high single digit or low double digit lead. Yes, Pat Quinn is behind but he can still pull off a win. Here is what he needs to do:

• Distance himself from Blagojevich as much as possible. To do this, he needs to highlight how he was isolated from the Governor and did not speak with him for all of 2008. Also, he needs to highlight how Blagojevich said Quinn was not a member of Blagojevich's administration in 2006.
• Highlight his ethical background: where he launched a panel to examine corruption in the University of Illinois. Also, he should highlight how he never used state money to pay for his trips, meals and hotel stays. If Pat Quinn wants to win, he needs to demonstrate he is not another corrupt Chicago politician.
• Make the race about Brady: Quinn needs to paint Brady as who really is; a downstate social conservative. He needs to run ads showing Brady wants to eliminate the State Board of Education and how Brady voted against increasing the minimum wage.
• Campaign hard in the suburbs: Quinn is from Chicago while Brady is from Bloomington which is Downstate. Brady should win almost every county (if not every county) in Downstate so Quinn needs to win as many suburban voters as possible.
• Highlight Brady's positions while campaigning in the suburbs: Quinn needs to highlight how Brady opposes abortion even in cases of rape and that Brady voted against a bill to ban gay discrimination not with marriage but in the workplace. Brady even voted against a bill to increase funding for stem cell research and supports teaching intelligent design. Brady even supports concealed handguns and Chicago is mostly pro gun control. These are the issues that made the suburbs trend towards the Democratis in the 1990's. Although the social issues will motivate Democrats to turn out and vote, Quinn should not get carried away because the main issue for voters is the economy and jobs. If he can make his campaign in the suburbs half about Brady's social issues but half about how Quinn will create jobs, Quinn should win.
• Do not bring up his tea parties unless they are absolutely necessary: in 1978, Quinn told people to send teabags to the current Illinois Governor due to state legislator pay raises. He could say he was one of the first real tea party people but this should depress Democratic turnout and Brady will win Downstate anyway.

Overall, Quinn should prove he is more connected to Chicagoland issues than Brady is but Quinn needs to define himself instead of being the "not Brady" candidate. Yes, Downstate is important and Democrats need to win in rural areas in states like Missouri to win elections. In Illinois though, Chicagoland has so many people so a Democrat can do well there, get crushed in Downstate but still win.

Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Oregon Gubernatorial Baselines

 In Oregon, Ted Kulogoshi (D) is not running for reelection as Governor. The Democrat running to replace him is John Kitzhaber (D) who is the former Governor of Oregon from 1994 to 2002. The Republican running is former basketball player Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber was a popular Governor and he was elected with 64% of the vote in 1998. A recent Rasmussen poll though showed Kitzhaber and Dudley tied. Kitzhaber should still win because Rasmussen has recently shown polls that favor Republicans. For the Arkansas Senatorial race, they found Republican John Boozmen winning against incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) by 38 points. Other polls show Boozmen winning by 10-15 points. For Oregon, other polls show Kitzhaber with a lead. This is an anti incumbent year but Kitzhaber has not been an incumbent for eight years. He was not very popular but Oregon has a strong Democratic lean so Kitzhaber should probably pull ahead.
For Kitzhaber to win, he needs to win big margins in Portland while carrying suburban Washington and Clackamas combined. He is from Portland but Dudley is from Lake Oswego in Clackamas County. Also, Kitzhaber needs to win traditionally Democratic rural counties like Clatsop and Tillamook counties where he performed very well in 1998. He hopefully will keep down Dudley's margins in the rural eastern part of the state.

This map here is the baselines of the Gubernatorial race. This map shows how the Oregon counties will vote if the Gubernatorial race is tied. I found the results by adding the 2008 Presidential election results to the 1998 Gubernatorial election results. I then divided by two to get the results shown below.

Link for 1998 election results: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Link for 2008 election results: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Here is a map of the baselines

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 60%+
Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+
Light Red: Dudley 50%+
Red: Dudley 60%+
Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

Now here is a chart of the percentages by county. The formatting is not working but it should not be too hard to follow.

Counties Kitzhaber Dudley


Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

Baselines for Florida's Gubernatorial Race

 Charlie Crist (R), the current Governor of Florida is not running for reelection this year because he is running for Senate as an Independent (which is another story.) He leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink  is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a Rasmussen poll showed McCollum leading by 7. This poll on April 16th is the most recent poll on the race and Rasmussen usually leans to the right. For these reasons, it is hard to tell if McCollum still has a lead. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes.

Sink's background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education commission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)
McCollum's background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.

About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is...the rest of Florida.

How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Here are some helpful links:
For 2006 CFO election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2006 Attorney General election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Now finally the baselines:
County name Sink McCollum Other
Alachua          59%  40%  1%
Baker             27%  72%  1%
Bay                32%  67%  1%
Bradford        35%  64%  1%
Brevard          45%  54%  1%
Broward         66%  33%  1%
Calhoun          42%  57%  1%
Charlotte        44%  55%  1%
Citrus             44%  55%  1%
Clay               28%  71%  1%
Collier            35%  64%  1%
Columbia       39%  60%  1%
DeSoto          43%  56%   1%
Dixie              42%  57%   1%
Duval             44%  55%  1%
Escambia       38%  61%  1%
Flager            49%  50%  1%
Franklin         47%  52%  1%
Gadsden        72%  27%  1%
Gilchrest        39%  60%  1%
Glades          47%  52%  1%
Gulf              43%  56%  1%
Hamilton       51%  48%  1%
Hardee         36%  63%  1%
Hendry         45%  54%  1%
Hernando     47%  52%  1%
Highlands      41%  58%  1%
Hillsborough  48% 51% 1%
Holmes           31% 68% 1%
Indian River    40% 59% 1%
Jackson          43% 56% 1%
Jefferson         60% 39% 1%
Lafayette        38% 61% 1%
Lake              41% 58% 1%
Lee                41% 58% 1%
Leon              63% 36% 1%
Levy              44% 55% 1%
Liberty           45% 54% 1%
Madison        56% 43% 1%
Manatee        45% 54% 1%
Marion          44% 55% 1%
Martin           42% 57% 1%
Miami-Dade  56% 43% 1%
Monroe         52% 47% 1%
Nassau          31% 68%  1%
Okaloosa      26%  73% 1%
Okeechobee  46% 53% 1%
Orange          53%  46%  1%
Osceola        52%  47%  1%
Palm Beach   62%  37%  1%
Pasco            46%  53%  1%
Pinellas          51%  48%  1%
Polk              44%  55%  1%
Putnam          44%  55%  1%
Santa Rosa    27%  72%  1%
Sarasota        48%  51%  1%
Seminole        43%  56%  1%
St. Johns        34%  65%  1%
St. Lucie        53%  46%   1%
Sumter          37%   62%   1%
Suwanee       38%   61%   1%
Taylor           44%   55%   1%
Union            35%   64%   1%
Volusia          51%   48%   1%
Wakulla         50%  49%    1%
Walton          30%  69%    1%
Washington   34%  65%    1%

Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.
Dark Red: McCollum 65%+
Red: McCollum 60%-64%
Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%
Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%
Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%
Blue: Sink 55%-59%
Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%
Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+

A little more analysis:

The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink's margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County's leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.

Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama's coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular Florida election.

Maryland County Baselines

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+
Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%
Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%
Blue=O'Malley 60%-69%
Dark Blue= O'Malley 70%+

This is a map for those who like visual aides like myself. This is for the baselines which I will explain below.

Robert Ehlrich (R), the former Governor of Maryland is running against Martin O' Malley (D) the incumbent Governor of Maryland. This is like a repeat of 2010 because the two same candidates are running for the same seat, except O'Malley is the Governor this time. Yes, Maryland is a Democratic state where Obama won 62% but a recent Rasmussen poll showed O' Malley ahead by only three points. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maryland/election_2010_maryland_governor
Rasmussen usually leans to the right in their polling but still, Maryland should have a competitive race. Obama had a boost from high African American turnout but most political people believe it will be lower. For your knowledge and enjoyment, I have created the baseline for Maryland counties which are the expected percentages for each candidate by county if the race is tied. I factored in the 2006 Gubernatorial election because Ehlrich and O'Malley were the candidates in it. I also factored in the 2008 Presidential election because the results are more recent and should reflect Republican and Democratic trends. The two elections combined should offer a clear picture of Maryland's county baselines. The math I used was adding the 2006 and 2008 Republican and Democratic percentages. I then divided by two and subtracted 8 from the Democratic percentage for the baseline.

A bit about Ehlrich and O' Malley's past elections: Ehlrich won in 2002 by running far ahead of Republican percentages in the Baltimore County suburbs of Anne Arundel and Baltimore County (which does not include Balitmore City.) Ehlrich used to represent a congressional district in Republican Baltimore suburbs. In 2006, he was unable to pull big margins from them because O'Malley is the former mayor of Baltimore City and he was popular with the working class Baltimore suburban voters Ehlrich won in 2002. For example, he won Baltimore County with 61% in 2002 but lost by 300 votes in 2006. For Ehlrich to win, he needs to do very well with the working class voters. He did not so he lost with 53%-46%. Enough talk about elections, here are the baselines:

Wait, here are some helpful links:

For 2006 election: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/MD/G/00/county.000.html
For 2008 election:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#MDP00p1

Now finally the baselines:

County name O'Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George's 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne's 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary's 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

As seen in the baselines, O'Malley only wins the big three (Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's Counties.) I think he should barely win Charles County which is trending Democratic quickly. Overall, the baselines should fluctuate a bit but I wanted to stay with election results, not my personal opinion on each county. Any thoughts?

New Version of Villaraigosa Article

Recently, Obama went to Costa Mesa in Orange County to give a speech. Why did he go to a Republican area in California instead of a heavily Democratic city such as Los Angeles or California? The answer is the Hispanic voters Obama is trying to court. They could decide the future in the gubernatorial primary. The potential Democratic field includes: Former Governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Other potential candidates could include California Schools Superintendent Jack O’ Connell and former State Controller Steve Westley though it seems difficult for them to make a serious run. I do not believe Dianne Feinstein will run because she is now the leader of the U.S Senate’s Intelligence Committee, a post she may not want to give up if she runs for Governor. If she does run, she would be the clear favorite and others could drop out of the field. Since it is a very tight primary field, a candidate, does not need 50% of the vote to win. A recent Field poll had Jerry Brown and Villaraigosa tied at 16%, Newsom with 10% and Garamendi with 4%. Dianne Feinstein was about 20 points ahead of Brown and Villaraigosa. Still, this is an early field poll and leads can change. Pundits seemed surprised Villaraigosa was performing so well but I was not. I have held the theory for a long time that in the end, the race will come down to Jerry Brown, Antonio Villaraigosa and perhaps Gavin Newsom with Villaraigosa winning by a few points.

Here is why:
1) Garamendi has long been a standing figure in California politics. He even ran in the 1982 California Democratic gubernatorial Primary but lost to Tom Bradley. He was a state senator but then was elected the Insurance Commissioner for California in 1990. In 2006, he ran for Lieutenant Governor against Conservative Tom McClintock and won by only four points. Garamendi's base is in Sacramento which he represented in the state legislature from 1974 to 1990. That did not help him in the primary for lieutenant governor in 06, because he lost that county by 5 points to Jackie Speier, the new congresswoman for California's 12th Congressional District (that district covers the Sunset District of San Francisco as well the northern part of San Mateo County). Garamendi won by racking up huge margins in Southern California, winning Los Angeles County by 29 points and accumulating a margin of 167,000 votes there, more than twice his state margin of victory which was 70,000 votes. Garamendi will probably lose the Southern California battle to Villaraigosa. From analyzing this data, Garamendi does not have a strong enough base to win the Democratic gubernatorial primary. It seems that time has passed by Garamendi.

2) Gavin Newsom is the charismatic young mayor of San Francisco. He has not run a statewide race before so there is no hard data outside of his home base of San Francisco to show how he will do statewide. I can speculate and we have some very good guesses to how Newsom will fare in the primary. When he first ran for mayor of San Francisco, he ran as a centrist Democrat, calling himself a moderate by that city’s standards. In the rest of California however, Newsom is viewed as very Liberal. He is young, extremely photogenic and articulate and could campaign in the style of Barack Obama. Like Obama, Newsom is reaching out to voters on the internet. He will dominate the blogosphere, facebook and twitter. Newsom’s problem is that his popularity does not seem to extend outside of San Francisco and even in San Francisco, he lost some popularity. State-wide he is viewed as too controversial on gay rights as his portrayal in Proposition 8 ads alienated some voters. This could hurt him among the 32% of the Democratic voters who supported Proposition 8. That vote came mostly from religious Hispanics and African Americans. This Proposition 8 stance will probably hurt in the general election. Also, the affair with his former campaign manager’s wife may return to haunt him. In the primary, Newsom will carry San Francisco but where else will he win? He will probably carry Marin County, just north of San Francisco because of his local roots. He can probably win university counties such as Yolo, Santa Cruz, Humboldt, Santa Barbara along with maybe San Luis Obispo and Butte counties. Still, the available amount of votes in those counties is too small to win. He is a progressive Liberal but so is Jerry Brown. Newsom will be too Liberal and controversial for the Central Valley and most of Southern California. If Newsom is able to get rid of his baggage and appear as an Obama “for change” Liberal, he should do better than expected. He is trying to win the Westside Los Angeles Liberals. They were not so warm to Villaraigosa during his recent primary. He could wage a battle in the Bay Area and beat Brown there. This is possible and if it does happen, it is unlikely Brown will obtain enough votes to win.

3) Jerry Brown is the Attorney General of California and was the Governor in the 1970’s. He was a popular Governor with progressive policies but since he was Governor a generation ago, I estimate that only 20%-25% of the voters remember Jerry Brown. He has reinvented himself, however by becoming mayor of Oakland and becoming Attorney General in 2006. He won 63%-37% against Rocky Delgadillo who was the Hispanic City Attorney for Los Angeles. This race reunited Brown with California’s voters. This large margin could bode well for Brown in the primary. Still, Brown will face stronger competition in the Gubernatorial primary from Villaraigosa and Newsom. In general, Villaraigosa would do well in Southern California and the Central Valley. For Jerry Brown, the key will be to beat Gavin Newsom in the Bay Area by racking up large margins in the East Bay and winning in San Jose. Villaraigosa may be competitive in San Jose because of its large Hispanic population. Jerry Brown will need to do well, as he did against Delgadillo, in the Sierras, and San Diego County. A swing group for all three main candidates could be Bay Area Hispanics. The prospect of a Hispanic Governor could appeal to them but they may be inclined to vote for someone from the Bay Area. Also, Jerry Brown will have to beat Newsom in the university counties which will be an arduous task. Yet, it really comes down to Jerry Brown getting enough votes against Newsom in the Bay Area to carry enough votes against the Los Angeles based and potential statewide support of Villaraigosa. Brown seems keenly aware of this based on his office’s recent decision to oppose Proposition 8. Still, Jerry Brown won by 18 points in the general election for Attorney General, a sign that he could still be extremely popular around the state.
4) Antonio Villaraigosa, the current mayor of Los Angeles is also the former Speaker of the state legislature and is a national Hispanic leader. He is popular in Los Angeles but the key to win will be a large turnout of Hispanics, his Los Angeles base and key Hispanic Congressional districts through the state. He needs to carry San Joaquin County. It is a swing area with Hispanics and voters from the Bay Area. In the 2008 California Democratic Presidential Primary, Hispanics made up 30% of the primary's voters. That is good news for Villaraigosa and because of that turnout, he should benefit if he can garner that support in a non Presidential primary year. Another strength of Villaraigosa’s is that he is popular with organized labor. Villaraigosa also did very well with African Americans in the Los Angeles mayoral election. He won white liberals in the Westside of Los Angeles so Villaraigosa could prevent Newsom and Brown from making inroads among them. Newsom’s strategy to win them may make that group more competitive. The key is turnout of the Hispanic voter and the basic support of the rest of his base because there may be a large turnout of white Liberals in the Bay Area for Newsom and Brown which might offset any increase in Hispanic turnout. Villaraigosa first has to become more known and appear as a leader to Hispanics. The problem is he may not even be very popular in his own city. On the March 3rd, 2009 mayoral primary, he won with only 55% of the vote. Still, this was a low turnout primary. This margin for Villaraigosa shows how his ratings are poor as a mayor, especially for education. Something else is that Villaraigosa has a general election later this year and he has to raise money for that. In the Gubernatorial election, if Villaraigosa were running against Newsom or Brown only, Villaraigosa would lose. Yet, if Brown and Newsom do split the vote, it could be sure victory for Villaraigosa. Gubernatorial primaries in California usually have low turnout so if Villaraigosa can energize enough Hispanics, this could be the formula he needs to win. Consider the math: If Hispanics are 30% of the primary vote and Villaraigosa wins them 3-1, he already has 23% of the vote. He needs probably 39% to win. He can win the other 16% with organized labor and split the Los Angeles Westside with Newsom and Brown.

If all four of these candidates run, this gubernatorial primary will be very competitive and draw clear lines among voter groups. If it goes the way I predict, it will come down to Brown and Villaraigosa with Villaraigosa winning by a slight margin because of his expected turnout and Brown’s inability to gather enough votes in the Bay Area. If Newsom is competitive, he will hamper Brown’s chances. If Brown plays his cards completely wrong and Newsom gets past his scandals, Newsom will be Villaraigosa’s main rival. This may change because Garamendi may be stronger than I expect after years of courting party leadership. Still, that is unlikely. Feinstein may decide to run. Brown may have done enough for the liberal Bay Area voter on his revised stand on Prop. 8. Villaraigosa may not have the turnout among his base to win. Still, this is a primary not to be underestimated. Leads will keep changing and the primary could generate rising stars for the Democratic Party. This is a battle between three groups of Democrats: Obama Democrats who are part of the facebook generation led by Newsom, the baby boomer Liberals led by Jerry Brown and the Hispanics lead by Villaraigosa. If the race did not shift from where it is now, Villaraigosa will be the winner.