The highly
gerrymandered 5th district connects primarily African American neighborhoods in
both Jacksonville and Orlando with a few in between in Gainesville. This
district voted 71% for President Obama in 2012 while many of the surrounding
districts voted 51%-55% for Romney, showing that this gerrymandering prevented
Democrats from winning in those other districts. The argument Republicans used
for keeping the 5th district intact was that the VRA required that a majority
African American district should be drawn. As courts have ruled though, the
VRA's goal is to create African American (and Hispanic) majority districts in
areas with large African American populations instead of creating a district
that connects African American communities that are far away from each other.
In this case, Jacksonville and Orlando are more than 100 miles away from each
other.
Florida's
10th district was a major beneficiary of the 5th. The 10th represents parts of
Lake and Polk Counties, two Republican leaning counties bordering Democratic
leaning Orange County (Orlando) and the 10th district also represented part of
Orange County. The 5th, though, covered the Democratic areas in
Orange County, so the 10th was able to represent more Republican parts of
Orange County, keeping the 10th Republican leaning.
The
Republican Legislature is tasked with redrawing the 5th and 10th (plus
surrounding districts) and their new
proposal released on August 7th keeps the Jacksonville to Orlando
string on the 5th district and keeps the 10th Republican leaning.
This map
is how a fair map of how Florida should be drawn using the California
redistricting model of combining communities of interest and creating
competitive districts. This map redraws Florida's districts 3-15 and creates
two new swing districts. The other districts were not included in the redrawing
because they were not affected by the ruling. Here is the old map of Florida's
districts:
Old election results:
New Florida map:
New Florida election results:
Florida's
3rd District:
Ted Yoho
(R)
Demographics:
17.5% African American, 8.6% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Lean
Republican
The 3rd
district represents communities of interest by representing rural areas and
small cities in northern Florida. By including Gainesville (University of
Florida), and losing Clay County in suburban Jacksonville, this district
becomes more Democratic, voting for Romney by 10 points and voting Republican
in the 2010-12 average by seven (??). While those numbers show a Republican
lean, this district is culturally southern and open to voting for conservative
Democrats down-ballot. Senator Nelson in 2012 won the district by seven points.
If Democrats are able to find a strong candidate in a good year such as 2016
with Hillary (likely) on the ticket, Democrats have a shot. Also, Rep. Yoho’s
suggestion that voting
should only be limited to property owners
does not hurt the Democrats' chances either.
Florida's
4th District:
Ander
Crenshaw (R) vs. Ron DeSantis (R)
Demographics:
8.8% African American, 6.1% Hispanic, 80.6% White
Safe
Republican
The 4th
undergoes changes by gaining Clay County and representing communities of
interest by representing suburban Jacksonville. This is Romney's best Florida
district so no Democrat will win here. The 4th district mostly contains area
represented by Crenshaw but also adds DeSantis’s home county - St. John's
County with about 200,000 people. . DeSantis may choose to run here because the
6th is a swing district but DeSantis was first elected in 2012 and Crenshaw has
served since 2001 (and represents more of the district), putting DeSantis at a
disadvantage. But if DeSantis were to win, he would not have to worry about a
competitive race in the 6th district every two years.
Florida's
5th District:
Corrine
Brown (D)
Demographics:
33.8% African American, 7.9% Hispanic, 4.5% Asian, 51.0% White
Tilt
Democratic with Corrine Brown, Lean Democratic with Alvin Brown
The 5th
district is now more compact and combines communities of interest by
representing urban Jacksonville instead of combining urban Jacksonville with
urban Orlando. Even though Bush won the district in 2004, it is trending
Democratic so Democrats should have the advantage here barring another year
similar to 2010. Brown, though, is disliked by many Democrats by supporting her
district's current lines which keep her safe but prevent Democrats from winning
in the 10th district. Under these new lines though, Brown will have to fight to
keep her seat and may even face a primary challenge from Jacksonville mayor
Alvin Brown (D) who can question her ethics
issues. Alvin Brown won citywide in Jacksonville
and since the 5th district represents most of Jacksonville, Brown is familiar
to the voters and his moderate profile should allow him to win in this
marginally Democratic seat.
Florida's
6th District:
Vacant
(Ron De Santis (R))?
Demographics:
11.8% African American, 12.0% Hispanic, 72.4% White
Pure
Tossup
The 6th
district loses heavily Republican Putnam and St. Johns Counties and gains
Democratic leaning Deltona in Volusia County and Democratic Sanford in Seminole
County. These changes bring Romney's margin from 16.4% to 0.2%, making it the
closest district in Florida in the 2012 Presidential election. Both Flagler and
Volusia Counties in the district are swing counties, supporting Obama in 2008
narrowly and Romney in 2012 narrowly. The representative for the old 6th
district (58% Romney) is freshman Ron DeSantis (R) who may run in the new 4th
district which is safely Republican and contains his home county. A potential
Democratic candidate for the 6th district is young Daytona Beach mayor Derrick
Henry (D) who represents the largest city in the district and the center of
Volusia County, one of the closest counties in Florida.
Old map of I-4 Corridor:
New map of I-4 Corridor:
Florida's
7th District:
John Mica
(R)
Demographics:
9.1% African American, 15.3% Hispanic, 70.3% White
Safe
Republican
The 7th
district becomes more Republican, going from a 5% Romney win to a 10% Romney
win. It loses some close suburbs to Orlando and gains some exurban areas in
Lake County. While placing part of Lake County in this district was not ideal
due to communities of interest, it was necessary for population reasons. Mica
may face a primary challenge from Rep. Daniel Webster (R) who represents the
10th district which has become Democratic under the new lines. With a solid
base in his home area of Seminole County though, Mica should be able to win
easily, even though parts of the 10th district are now in the 7th.
(The 8th
district is not included because it does not undergo any changes. Rep. Bill
Posey (R) should have an easy reelection).
Florida's
9th District:
Alan
Grayson (D)
Demographics:
9.8% African American, 43.4% Hispanic, 40.3% White
Safe
Democratic
This
district represents heavily Hispanic suburban Osceola County and heavily Hispanic parts of Orange County.
Rep. Grayson’s reputation for making inflammatory statements about Republicans
hurt him when he represented a swing district from 2009 to 2011. His 9th
district however, has very minor changes and remains strongly Democratic with
President Obama winning 61% of the vote.
Florida's
10th District:
Daniel
Webster (R)?
Demographics:
25.6% African American, 19.8% Hispanic, 4.5% Asian, 47.0% White
Likely
Democratic
The 10th
district undergoes major changes, losing most of Republican Lake County, all of
Republican Polk County and gaining heavily African American precincts in Orange
County that were formerly represented by the 5th district. As a result, the
district is more compact and combines communities of interest by representing (inner-
is “central” a better term?) Orlando. These changes would bring President
Obama's percentage from 46% to 58% in the 2012 election. Webster will probably
not run here because the district is too Democratic. His 2012 opponent and
former Orlando Chief of Police Val Demmings (D) may run for this seat.
Florida's
11th District:
Rich
Nugent (R)
Demographics:
5.7% African American, 8.5% Hispanic, 82.9% White
Safe
Republican
The 11th
undergoes a few minor changes, mainly in Ocala and Pasco Counties. The district
remains safely Republican and retains its large retiree population.
Florida's
12th District:
Gus
Bilirakis (R)
Demographics:
10.7% Hispanic, 80.9% White
Safe
Republican
Despite the
12th district voting for Romney by only seven points, Bilirakis has not faced a
serious Democratic contender since 2006 in his suburban Tampa district with a
large population of retirees. Besides gaining some Republican leaning parts of
Pinellas County, the 12th district does not change much.
Florida's
13th District:
David
Jolly (R)
Demographics:
12.2% African American, 8.4% Hispanic, 74.0% White
Lean
Democratic
In March
of 2014, there was a low turnout special election for this seat where moderate Republican David Jolly beat Democrat Alex Sink for this
seat by 2 points. While that was a tough election loss for some Democrats, it
was not unexpected because the Republican electorate skews much older in this district
thanks to the retirees and therefore has high turnout in low turnout elections
such as this one. The old district's lines voted for President Obama by one
point in 2012 and the new district supported him by ten points. Even though
Jolly is moderate, he should be unable to win in a 10 point Obama district. The
district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic neighborhoods
in St. Petersburg that were in the 14th district and connected by water
contiguity.
Florida's
14th District:
Kathy
Castor (D)
Demographics:
20.3% African American, 28.9% Hispanic, 45.5% White
Safe
Democratic
This
district used to combine Tampa and St. Petersburg which violated communities of
interest by crossing water. The 14th district now is 100% in Hillsborough
County (Tampa) and represents Tampa and some close suburbs. The district voted
61% for President Obama in 2012 though so it should remain safely Democratic.
Florida's
15th District:
Dennis
Ross (R)
Demographics:
13.0% African American, 16.4% Hispanic, 65.7% White
Safe
Republican
The
district loses a few heavily Hispanic precincts to the 9th district and gains a
few from the 10th but otherwise does not change. It remains Republican leaning
and continues to represent the fast growing Lakeland area and some Tampa
suburbs.
The other
districts remain unchanged. The political results overall show one Democratic
seat (the 5th) becoming competitive and the Republicans losing two
seats (the 10th and the 13th) and getting a 50/50 chance
in another (the 6th). Overall, this map's goal was to suggest a fair
map that Florida should draw that increases the number of competitive districts
(the 5th and 6th districts) while combining communities of interest into the
same district. While it is likely the Republican controlled Florida Legislature
will aim to pass a proposal that creates minor changes to the 5th and 10th
district, this map shows what needs to be done in order to give Florida voters
a fair chance to choose their representatives.
