Will Trump Hurt House Republicans?

Cross posted on racesandredistricting.blogspot.com which has more election analysis. 

We are also on Facebook: www.facebook.com/...

Recently, the cook political report updated its House race ratings and all ten races favored Democrats. Before mid March of 2016, most pundits assumed that Democrats could not take the House. Trump may be the nomiee  and can harm downballot Republican candidates with his hateful rhetoric. While the downballot Republicans may not make the statements themselves, many will endorse Trump for President and many may appear with him at rallies. One however has already implied that he will not endorse Trump and possibly even vote for Hillary. This representative, Carlos Cuebelo (R) represents FL-26, a Democratic leaning and heavily Hispanic district that he narrowly won in 2014. 

The main question is though how strong of an impact will Trump have on downballot races? My answer is that if his candidacy causes high Democratic turnout, it will. If Trump’s candidacy does not generate high turnout among Democrats but only causes Independents to switch, it will not. As shown in states such as Ohio, Virginia and New York, Democratic wave elections that rely on low propensity voters (infrequent voters) have stronger downballot effects than wave elections that rely on persuading Independents.  

1. Ohio in 2006: Ohio in 2006 is a prime example of how top of the ticket races that rely on persuading voters instead of turning out base voters do not help downticket. In 2006, Rep. Ted Strickland (D) won the Governorship with 60%. He won for a couple of reasons. One was that Strickland’s opponent, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell (R) was unpopular statewide. Strickland also ran touting his moderate roots and connection to Appalachia (he represented a congressional district in southeastern Ohio). At the same time, Democrats failed to make major gains in House  seats. They only gained one, Rep. Bob Ney’s (R) seat which could have been explained as the result of a scandal. 

Ohio 2006 Gubernatorial Election results (red and blue are switched) 

As shown by the 2006 exit polls, turnout among key groups such as African Americans, Democrats and young voters remained similar to 2004 but Independents backed Strickland by 43 points. Therefore, Republicans won House seats such as OH-15 which was located in the Columbus area and strongly backed Strickland. The reason the Republican won though was that the voters were not low propensity Democrats but regular voters who backed Republicans in the past (OH-15 supported Bush in 2004) and decided to stick with Republicans downballot. Columbus has a high number of  college students and African Americans so a high  turnout among those groups would be problematic for Republicans in this district. The same happened in OH-01 as well which voted for  Bush by 2 points in 2004. The district is located around Cinncinatti and has a high African American population (27%).  

In 2008 however, although Obama won by five points instead of 24 in Ohio, turnout was stronger among young voters, African Americans and Democrats. OH-15 flipped however with help from high turnout from African Americans and young voters in Franklin County (Columbus). OH-01 flipped as well. With high  African American turnout in Cinncinati, OH-01 flipped as well. 

2. 2008 Virginia: in 2008, President Obama won Virginia by seven points, thanks to high turnout among upscale liberals/Hispanics/Asians  in Northern Virginia, high turnout from African Americans in SE  VA and high turnout from college students in areas such as Charlottesville. It is no surprise that Democrats gained three House seats in Virginia in 2008 despite gaining none in  2006. Even though Democrats won on top of the ticket, Dems won on winning over Independents, not by turning out low propensity voters.  

In 2006, Democrats did win a Senate seat with Jim Webb (D) defeating  Sen. George Allen (R). Webb’s strategy though did not appear to rely on turning out low propensity voters but appeared to rely on winning over blue dog Democrats in SW VA with his moderate views and winning over upscale voters in NoVA due to Allen’s extremism. Allen called an Indian campaign  worker of Webb’s a “macaca” (a racial slur from North Africa). Webb used that to cause upscale voters who may have backed Bush in 2004 (Bush received 46% in Fairfax County, the main suburban county in NoVa), to switch to Webb (Allen won 40% of the Fairfax County vote). At the same time, those voters voted Republican downballot. Take VA-11 for example, it flipped in 2008 when Obama won it by 11 but its Republican incumbent won by 13 points. The reason is  that its incumbent, Tom Davis (R) was a moderate similar to many of the upscale voters who switched from Bush in 2004 to Webb in 2006. If Webb had brought out more low propensity Democrats though, they may have voted against Davis. 

2008 overall was a strong year for Democrats in Virginia. Besides Obama winning statewide by seven points, Democrats also gained VA-2 and VA-5. VA-2 was a district in the Hampton Roads with a sizable African American population that turned out to elect  a Democrat. VA-5 is a rural district with some  African Americans as well as young voters in Charlottesville. 

3. New York 2014: In 2010, Andrew Cuomo (D), then Gubernatorial candidate was thought to be facing a tough race (a poll showed him leading by only 6 points). Cuomo won by 28 points. Democrats however lost many House seats in New York, especially in Upstate. The reason is that although Cuomo may have won, he won by winning over enough center right voters. The Republican candidate, Carl Paladino (R) was in my opinion in a mini Donald Trump. Paladino told a reporter who asked him a tough question, “I’ll take you out!” Paladino then went on to compare being LGBT to being alcoholic. At his concession speech, Paladino also appeared to threaten newly elected Gov. Cuomo with a baseball bat. One can also make parallels between Paladino and Trump (they both made outlandish statements and both had a chance at winning for awhile) but that is a discussion for another article. 

 In 2014, Cuomo had angered most of the Democratic base and won by only 13 points, despite being on no one’s radar. At the same time though, Democratic turnout was extremely low hurting Democrats across the state. In NY-24 for example, a 57% Obama seat centered around Syracuse, a Republican John Katko (R) won it thanks to low Democratic turnout. Also, Rep.  Bishop (D) lost a Long Island Congressional seat that he had held for 12 years and won through 2010 and the Republican leaning years of 2002 and 2004. 

Conclusion: 

Overall, Trump will hurt House Republicans as long as his candidacy increases Democratic turnout.  It should not be difficult for Democrats to bring out their base regardless of the nominee, especially  with Trump’s hateful comments toward women, hateful comments toward Hispanics and refusal to denounce the KKK. If Trump’s candidacy though fails to turnout the Democratic base and instead mainly persuades moderate suburban Republicans to support the nominee, it will  not have as strong an impact downballot.

Also, both Democrats have arguments that they will increase higher turnout. Hillary’s campaign will argue that they can increase turnout with African Americans and Hispanics and Bernie’s campaign will argue that they will increase turnout among young people. With Trump’s candidacy though, turnout among all three groups should skyrocket. 

At this time, it is still unlikely that Democrats regain the House due to gerrymandering but  they can greatly narrow the GOP majority. At least any swing district Democrats hold with a high Hispanic population will now be safer due to high Hispanic turnout against Trump. What will be important for Democrats though is that besides persuading center right Hispanics, they also need to register and turnout as many low propensity Hispanic voters as they can. As shown in Ohio, New York and Virginia, sweeping Democratic wins have stronger coattail effects when those sweeping Democratic wins are fueled by low propensity voters instead of simply by persuading Independents to vote Democratic in a top of the ticket race.

Key Counties to Watch on the March 15th Primaries

The  Super Tuesday 2.0 is here and there are 691 delegates at stake. As  my friend calls it, “Significant Tuesday.” This is a chance for Hillary to secure her 200+ pledged delegate lead or for Sanders to prolong the race. Pundits expect Clinton to win Florida and North Carolina easily while Ohio, Illinois and Missouri should be close (although a few pundits say Sanders will win Missouri). Here are the key counties and regions to watch while the results unfold (on the Democratic side only).

Florida:

Florida is expected to go strongly for Hillary Clinton. The RCP polling average shows Hillary with a  29 point lead. The three main regions are: Gold Coast, I-4 Corridor and outstate Florida.  Hillary should perform well in outstate, mainly because of the high African American population in northern Florida, the elderly voters in the Villages and the wealthy voters on the southwest coast of Florida. She is also expected to do well in  the Gold Coast (Miami) with the high Hispanic, African American and elderly populations. Counties Sanders can try to score an upset:

Alachua County: the University of Florida is here but a  high African American population is here as well. This county will be close.

Counties north of Tampa: counties such as Pasco, Hernando and Citrus are heavily white and not as wealthy as the southwest coast of Florida. These have similar demographics to counties Bernie won in Michigan (and Midwestern transplants). At the same time, the percentage of elderly voters here is almost the highest in the nation so it is likely Bernie cannot even win here.

North Carolina:

This is another state where Hillary is expected to perform well, this time with a 24 point lead in the RCP average. Hillary should perform well in the eastern part of the state due to the high African American population. She should do well in the urban areas of  Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte as well. If Bernie wins a few counties, he needs to perform well in:

Western North Carolina: this is Appalachia with a low African American population but as shown in Tennessee, Georgia and Virginia, Hillary wins southern rural white voters.

Durham and Orange Counties: Duke and UNC are here but so are high African American populations.

Charlotte suburbs: Gaston and Union Counties  voted for Hillary by narrow margins in 08. These are heavily white and upscale suburban counties. If Bernie wants to make inroads among the upscale voters he needs to win these.

Ohio:

Here we go to our first  swing state of the evening. The RCP average has Hillary with an 8 point lead but after Michigan, it is highly unlikely that the Clinton folks are taking any chances. Ohio though will probably not be a Michigan repeat because Independents are represented in these polls. Also, Michigan has only one large urban area, Ohio however has:

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland): this county is the center of Ohio’s Democratic base. Obama won here by 260,000 votes in 2008, Kerry won here by 227,000  votes in 2004. It is about 30% African American. Hillary will need those votes and if she wins Cuyahoga County with a margin of 57% or higher, she will probably win statewide. Obama won 54% here with his 8 point loss in 2008.

Franklin County: (Columbus) Franklin County used to be a swing county (Gore won by a few point) but as shown in 2012 (Obama won it by 20) it has become strongly Democratic. It is the 2nd most populous county in Ohio (after Cuyahoga). Obama won 56% here but expect Hillary to do worse because while there is a large African American population (20% of the county), there is a large population of college students as well. There are upscale Democrats  too so Hillary should win (although narrowly). If she loses, expect a good night for Bernie.

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Hamilton is the 3rd most populated county in Ohio and it was also Obama’s best. With a low number of white Democrats and a 23% African American population, Hillary  should aim to at least match Obama’s percentages in the low 60s.

Lucas County (Toledo): Toledo is a smaller city (Lucas County has roughly 480k people) and Obama lost it by 5 points in 2008 but Hillary should win here. The reason is that she lost Monroe County, Michigan (which borders Toledo) by only one point and Monroe County has a lower African American population than Lucas County does. It depends how big the Hillary win is here though.

Summit County (Akron): this is a county to watch. It has a 13% African American population and a large number of working class union voters who may lean Sanders. Hillary can probably win Ohio without Summit county but if she wins it, Bernie cannot win.

Sanders should do well in the rural part of the state, but Hillary can make a play for:

Southeast Ohio: this is a heavily white and rural area. Hillary though showed that she can win Appalachian voters on March 1st so if she can win northern Appalachian voters and score some surprise wins in rural areas, this is the area to watch. It  voted heavily for her in 08.

Illinois:

This is another close state. Despite a high African American population (15%), a large number of upscale voters and high Obama popularity, Illinois could be a tough state for Hillary. The RCP average has her winning by 2.3 points and the trusty PPP poll has her leading by 3. Here are the key counties to watch:

Cook County (Chicago): nearly half of the state’s Democratic votes live here. Hillary wants a large margin from the south side with its high African American population. She also wants to do well in northern Cook County with upscale Democrats near Evanston similar to the upscale Dems in Massachusetts that helped her win there. Sanders though is making a play for Hispanics, young African Americans and working class voters. He also is tying Hillary to the unpopular mayor Rahm Emanuel.  If Hillary wins Cook County by 5 points or less, she should be worried.

Lake County: is Hillary winning upscale voters? Look no further than Lake County which is north of Cook County, is upscale and suburban. I was phone banking for Hillary here and found mostly Hillary supporters but I do not know how they targeted the voters. Hillary will also look to do well in other upscale areas such as McHenry and DuPage. If she loses Lake County though and gets a five point or lower win in Cook, she will lose Illinois.

Downstate: this is rural Illinois and Sanders needs large margins in the rural areas to win. Hillary though could try to score some upsets in:

-St. Clair/Madison Counties: these are St. Louis suburbs with some heavily African American areas.

-Sangamon County: this is Springfield which also has some heavily African American neighborhoods.

-Pulaski County: this county is 30% African American and at the southern tip of Illinois. This was the only part of Illinois Hillary won in 08 so watch her try to repeat her win there.

Missouri:

This is the state Sanders has the best chance to win. With the state being only 11% African American and having a large white working class population, this is tough terrain for Hillary. PP has  Sanders winning by one point. Nate Silver says Hillary has a 54% chance of winning here.

St. Louis City: African Americans are about half the population here but there are many younger white Democrats as well. Hillary should win here but if her  margin is under 60% she should be concerned.

St. Louis County: with upscale voters, a 20% African American population and Ferguson, Hillary should win here. She also needs to keep her percentage above 60%. Obama won 63% here in his narrow Missouri win.

Jackson County (Kansas City): although there is an African American population in the 20s here, it is more working class and borders Kansas where Bernie performed well. If Hillary loses this county, she is in trouble.

Rural Missouri: although Hillary won rural Iowa on the Missouri border, that may have been more due to her ground game. Sanders should perform well in this part of the state. Hillary though can score some wins in rural counties in southeastern Missouri which border her husband’s home state Arkansas and a few counties in southeast Missouri such as New Madrid have  significant African American populations as well.

Three Takeaways for Hillary on Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday was a strong night for Hillary. It was not the knockout she wanted but it was still strong. Sanders failed to cause an upset in any of the heavily diverse southern states (the lowest she won was 64%). He did win Oklahoma but Nate Silver predicted a Sanders win there. Sanders also won Colorado and Minnesota but both states were caucus states which as shown in 2008 do not favor Hillary (although she made gains in both states compared to 2008). At the same time, both states had high white liberal and college aged populations. 

Something else I have noticed is that Hillary has become much more personable. To quote my professor "she should rent an RV from craigslist, travel around the country and stop at small towns unannounced.” She has not done that yet but she has shown moments of spontaneity. Examples of those include when she saw Steve Harvey and seemed really happy to see him. Another time was when she crashed a bachelor party. During that party, I thought she was about to say “Holy s**t” but instead said “Holy moley." A few people I know who know her well said she is very personable one on one and this campaign may be making her a better candidate and letting her express the personality more that she has at one on one meetings. 

In terms of last night however, here are three major takeaways on the Democratic side. 

1. Hillary Clinton won Hispanic  voters overwhelmingly.  This bodes extremely well for her in Florida which is roughly ¼ Hispanic. It also bodes well for her in Arizona, New Mexico and even New York which has a sizable Hispanic population as well. We know Hillary Clinton won Hispanic voters by looking at her numbers in Texas. Along the Rio Grande border, there are counties which are 90%+ Hispanic so they can show how Hispanic voters voted without having white voters dilute the county voters. Hillary won 72% in Webb County (94% Hispanic), 78% in Starr County (97% Hispanic) and 69% in Hildago County (92% Hispanic).  In Nevada, there was debate over who won the Hispanic vote. The Super Tuesday results though confirm that it was probably Hillary. 

2. She held her own with rural white voters. She won them in most regions as well. Yes, she lost rural Minnesota, rural Vermont, western rural Colorado and rural Oklahoma. At the same time, she won overwhelmingly in northern rural Texas. She also won overwhelmingly in rural Arkansas and Tennessee which are heavily white. The key area for her was Appalachia because Bernie said that he could win it because of the poor economy there. Hillary however won Appalachia, although not by a large margin. She won every Appalachian county in Georgia and narrowly won them in VA. Without Vermont, Nate Cohn said that Hillary won 54% in counties that were over 90% white. This means she can run it close or even with Sanders with this demographic in Mi and OH when combined with African American support translates into a win. Also, the white helped her deliver such crushing margins in states such as AL (78%), GA (71%) and Tennessee which is majority Democratic White voters (65%).

3. She is not getting crushed with young voters anymore. She is still losing them but her margins in the South with young voters were nowhere near the 15% she won in the first three caucus states. At first, I thought the shift toward Hillary among young voters was ancedotal as a few of my Bernie supporting friends switched to Hillary. The results on Tuesday show that there is a small shift toward her. This is shown in the county results which surprised even me, as an ardent Hillary supporter. Hillary Clinton won 48% in Travis County, Texas which I thought should have overwhelmingly supported Sanders, due to the high number of college students and liberal white voters. She also won Clarke County, GA (51%) which is a college county and where Athens, GA is located. In Massachusetts, she won 50% in Medford (Tufts) and 53% in Cambridge (Harvard). This connects back to Hillary’s win in Massachusetts. Sanders’ loss there is a bad sign for him. The state was made for him. It is in New England, it is heavily white, heavily working class, the Democrats are very liberal and it has a large number of colleges. 

At the same time though, Hillary did not deliver a knockout blow to Sanders that will cause him to drop out of the race this week. While she cemented her place as the front runner (by taking Massachusetts and winning both African Americans and Hispanics), Sanders will probably stay in the race much longer. He won CO showing he has a shot in the West and won MN showing he still has appeal to some liberals and working class voters. This could be a good sign for Sanders in other rural western states and the Upper Midwest in states such as Wisconsin (but not Michigan due to the African American population there). At the same time, Sanders needs to prove he can win a diverse state with high African American and Hispanic populations. Yesterday, he did not do that and every diverse southern state he lost by 29 to 59 points. Her margins among African American voters was unchanged from South Carolina. For example, she won 89% in Macon County and 90% in Greene County, AL. Both of these counties have extremely high African American populations, especially in the Democratic primary. 

So overall, this race will continue. Sanders is raising money, performing well in the caucus states but overall, it is still very likely that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.

Final note: all county results can be found here: