Final Election Predictions + 2014 Election Night Guide

One more dawn, one more day, one day more!

Here are my final election predictions. After an extremely rocky road to the Election day with polls showing 10 tossups according to RCP, this is going to be an exciting night! The Democrats are looking to lose some House seats (I predict eight) and gain three Governorships. The Senate is too close to call and we may not know the final outcome until January.

Reps will automatically pick up Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Arkansas looks increasingly likely to go red too. The other seats however will be explained in the post.

Also, I will be including county baselines with the two party vote. The baselines were calculated using the Obama 2012 numbers as well as numbers from a recent statewide race that one of the candidates on the ballot ran in before 2014. This statewide race is factored in to look at regional trends while Obama 2012 looks at recent trends. Also, click on the maps for the full picture.

Here is a Google doc with a detailed baseline breakdown, keep this handy during election night:
https://docs.google.com/a/usc.edu/spreadsheets/d/1qnT5zDXyZwGhJKYL3Dl6oomua5aJ_XI1QubxxwOTjMw/edit#gid=36061957

Alaska:
Alaska does not report by county. My only note though is that the first votes in Alaska usually lean Republican because the rural areas report late. The rural areas have a large Native American population and Begich has been aggressively courting their vote. While I am not as optimistic here, they can help narrow the race.

Prediction: Sullivan +1

Colorado:
Jefferson Jefferson Jefferson, if you want to know the final result in Colorado, look at Jefferson County (also known as JeffCo). It is a suburban Denver County with a leaning Democratic north and leaning Republican south. The baselines have Udall at 49.9% there in the two party vote. Other important counties to watch are Arapahoe (Udall needs to win it by 3.6% or more) and Larimer County (Udall is at 49.4% in the two party vote). These three counties will decide the election, especially Jefferson. Watch these three counties only, period.

I predict that Udall squeaks by here, this may go to a recount. The reason is that polling always underestimates Dems in Colorado and with the race tightening a bit; Udall has a good chance to pull it out. Udall by 0.5-1.

(Baselines are Obama 2012 and Udall 2008)

Map legend:
Dark Red = Republican by 10 or more points
Light Red = Republican by 0%-9.9%
Light Blue = Democratic by 0%-9.9%
Dark Blue = Democratic by 10 or more points

Georgia:
Polls have shown an extremely tight race expected to go into runoff. Watch Gwinnett and Cobb Counties. If Nunn gets 47% of the vote in those counties, she has a great chance at entering the runoff. These counties were once Republican strongholds but Hispanic and African American growth have made them less Republican like the rest of Georgia. Also, Nunn should perform well in south Georgia due to her Father’s popularity with voters there. Look at Decatur County as a barometer for the runoff, if she breaks 50% there, she will probably break 50% statewide, if not, then she will be in a runoff.

Prediction is that this race goes to runoff. Nunn leads by 1 on November 4th.
In the Gubernatorial race, Deal leads by 2, also goes to runoff.

The baselines include the 2012 Presidential election and the 2010 Gubernatorial election because the Democratic candidate had rural strength.

Iowa:
There are no baselines for this race because neither candidate has run statewide. Due to historical trends though, Braley needs a strong margin out of Polk County (10 or more points) and needs his margin in Johnston County to be 30 points or more. Overall prediction is that Braley barely pulls it out thanks to the ground game and the history of Dems getting underestimated in Iowa polls (the RCP average had Obama up by 2 and he won by 6).

Prediction: Braley by 1.

Kansas:
To win, Orman needs to run up the score in the eastern Kansas urban areas. He needs to win Leavenworth County by more than 30 points. Counties Orman must win include Sedgwick (Wichita) and Johnson (Kansas City suburbs). If Orman loses both of them, he is done. If he wins one, he will probably lose and if he wins both, he is in good shape.

Prediction: Roberts by 1, I see Kansas coming home to the Republicans.

Kentucky:
For Grimes to win, she must run up numbers in Jefferson County (Louisville) to offset rural Republican margins. Democrats have collapsed in rural Kentucky so she needs urban margins. A winning Grimes electorate will have her winning Jefferson County by 61.7% or more of the two party vote. Important bellwethers to watch include Pike County (Grimes 50.3%) and Lyon (Grimes 50.1%) Pike County is in coal country and will show how well Grimes is performing among the coal country voters.

Grimes has been sinking in recent polls. A Marist poll shows her down by nine and while I do not expect her to lose by that much, I do not see her winning this and this is hard for me to say because I am a major supporter. I predict McConnell wins by 5.

(Baselines are Obama 2012, Grimes 2011 and McConnell 2008)

Louisiana:
More detailed explanation on Louisiana baselines + close counties here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2014/10/louisiana-county-benchmarks.html
The final prediction is a runoff. I will release a final prediction for the runoff a few days before it after seeing polling and the November 4th election results.

New Hampshire:
Shaheen has led in most polls here (and New Hampshire underestimated Dems in 2012,) plus Scott Brown (R) has reinforced his narrative as a carpetbagger by thinking Sullivan County was in northern New Hampshire. The county to watch is Rockingham, if Shaheen can win it or lose it by less than five, Brown should drive his truck back to Massachusetts.

Prediction: Shaheen by 3.

North Carolina:
Many Democrats are optimistic about North Carolina. The early votes show Democrats have much higher turnout than 2010 plus polling shows Hagan with a narrow lead which is important because unlike other states, Democrats are not severely underestimated in polling. For Hagan to win, she needs to turnout the urban Democratic counties and hit these marks in them (Mecklenburg 61%, Orange 70%, Guilford 59%) The two major bellwether counties are New Hanover and Nash so if Hagan wins those, expect a good night for her.


I predict Hagan wins by 3.
(Hagan 2008 and Obama 2012)

Overall, the Senate range could be anywhere from Republicans gaining four seats to eight seats. The playing field is wide open and the Senate appears to be a coin flip, especially with new polls on Sunday and Monday confirming that.

The three major Gubernatorial races I will be watching are the Florida and Wisconsin Gubernatorial races, both because I dislike Scott and Walker and will be extremely happy if they lose.

Florida:
Florida always has extremely close elections and this one will be no exception. For Charlie Crist (D) to win, he must perform well in the I-4 Corridor, a formerly swingy area that is trending Democratic. He must win Hillsborough County by at least five points (Alex Sink (D) who ran for Governor in 2010 lost it by four). Another I-4 county to watch include Orange County which is Democratic but has bad midterm turnout. Crist must win by at least 15 points there. The most populous and important county to watch in Florida is Miami Dade County. Crist needs to win by at least 19 points there and he can do that by winning that important Hispanic vote.

Prediction: Crist by 2.

(Note: Crist may overperform the baselines in counties around Tallahassee thanks to residual Democratic strength there but the change should not be enough to impact any of the other major county baselines. The baselines btw are from the 2010 gubernatorial election and the 2012 Presidential election).

Michigan:
Rick Snyder (R) has seen his lead evaporate and is in a close reelection contest with Mark Schauer (D). In order for Schauer to win, he needs to win Wayne County (Detroit) by at least 40 points and win Oakland County which is a big bellwether. He also needs to win or come within 3 points in Macomb County.

Prediction: Snyder by 1, the Peters coattails may not be enough.

Wisconsin:
Most polls show this race within one point. Burke has run a solid campaign attacking Walker for job losses instead of the union debacle. The major counties to watch here are Dane and Milwaukee which have a large Democratic base. The anti Walker vote should be high there (Burke needs to win Milwaukee by 30 points to offset Walker’s overperformance in rural Wisconsin as predicted by the baselines,) and Burke needs to win Dane County by 41 points. A good bellwether county is Racine County, it leans slightly Republican but if Burke can keep the margin within one point or win it, she will be the next Governor.

Prediction: recount, Burke +0.3
Baselines are from the 2012 recall and the 2012 Presidential election.

Senate Outlook 2014: Tossup in the Works

The Senate has been very competitive and conventional wisdom by inside the beltway pundits has suggested that Republicans have a narrow advantage. 2014 was supposed to be the year that Republicans nominated moderates so they could take the Senate unlike in 2010 and 2012 when they nominated far right candidates (we will never forget Todd Akin with his legitimate rape comment and Christine O'Donnell who ran an ad saying she's not a witch).  Many Republicans however have shown extremist views such as in Iowa where Joni Ernst (R) believes that federal agents promoting the ACA should be arrested and in North Carolina where State Senate President Thom Tillis (R) lost his lead with Sen. Hagan (D) due to his extremism in the legislature.

Thanks to these extremist candidates and an Independent candidate in Kansas, Democrats have a stronger chance at keeping the Senate. If I had written a Senate outlook in March of 2014, I would have probably stated that the Republicans would take back the Senate, thanks to the anti ACA numbers in the polls. The anti ACA movement has died down a bit and there is no major issue uniting the Republicans this year unlike 2010 which was about ACA and the economy. About the economy actually; the U.S. under President Obama has gained nearly 10 million new jobs over the last four years so Republicans cannot use the economy as a major issue. They may be able to attack him on foreign policy but they need to offer solutions and show the voters how foreign policy affects them personally. Still, midterm turnout is generally low for Democrats so my assessment is that Democrats have a very slightly better chance of keeping the Senate but not by much. Even if Democrats do lose the Senate, they will retake it in 2016 with winnable Republican seats up in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. Anyway, here are the races:

Safe D = Dark blue
Likely D = Blue
Lean D = Bright blue
Tilt D = Pale Blue
Pure Tossup = Purple
Tilt R = Pale Red
Lean R = Orange
Safe R = Red

Safe D

Delaware:
Sen. Chris Coons (D) faced Christine O'Donnell (R) in 2010 who told voters she was not a witch. This seat however is not bewitched, Coons should win easily.

Hawaii:
After a bruising Democratic Primary, Sen. Brian Schatz (D) should have no trouble winning the general.

Illinois:
Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) will win easily and hopefully provide coattails to Gov. Pat Quinn (D) who is facing a tough reelection.

Massachusetts:
Sen. Ed Markey (D) will have no trouble winning here.

New Jersey:
Sen. Cory Booker (D) is a rising star and that star will not fall this year.

New Mexico:
Despite being a Republican held seat in 2008, this Senate seat should stay in Democratic hands now that New Mexico has shifted to be a strongly Democratic state. Sen. Tom Udall (D) will have a 2nd term.

Oregon:
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) may have faced a competitive challenge from physician Monica Wehby (R) but she's faced issues including problems with her ex boyfriend (she stalked him and harassed his employees) and then plagiarized Republican economic plans, Merkley should win this race easily.

Rhode Island:
Jack Reed (D) will have no trouble winning reelection.

Virginia:
Sen. Mark Warner (D) was supposed to face a strong challenge from former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R). Virginia is a Democratic leaning swing state so Republicans should at least run a competitive race? Nope, Warner is extremely personally popular (he won by 30 points in 2008 against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)). While Warner's margin will not be as large (the RCP average has him at 13 points,) he will still win easily.

Likely D

Minnesota
Sen. Al Franken (D) had a tough election in 2008 and faced a recount that continued into July of 2009. This year though, polls show him with about a 10 point lead so he should win reelection without any difficulties.

Lean D

Michigan:
This seat used to be a tossup but Michigan showed its true colors and is shifting toward Rep. Gary Peters (D). Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) was nearly tied with Peters early in the year when Obamacare was in the news. The race now has shifted back to Peters with leads in the high single digits. One mistake Land made was running an ad with the message that she would protect women based on the fact that she was one. This ad inspired responses such as this one. Also, the NRSC is pulling out of Michigan, suggesting that Republicans think they will lose. This race may be in the Likely Democratic column next week.

New Hampshire:
Scott Brown (R) was heralded by the inside the beltway pundits as the strongest candidate in New Hampshire and the one that would take down Sen. Shaheen (D). New Hampshire is historically a bellwether state (voting strongly Democratic in 2008 and 2012 and strongly Republican in 2010,) Republicans do not seem to have much luck there this year. Shaheen is consistently posting high single digit leads in reputable polls. Also, the carpetbagging issue is not helping Brown either.

North Carolina:
Infusion after infusion of cash from Republican Super PACs has hit Incumbent Kay Hagan (D) but is she far behind in the polls? Nope, since September 2nd, not a single poll has shown Hagan behind her opponent. Hagan has been successful so far because her Republican opponent, Thom Tillis (R) represents the unpopular North Carolina Legislature. While President Obama is unpopular in North Carolina, the Legislature is more unpopular.  ratings. Also, many Republicans believe that Hagan is driftwood from 2008. She is not because she won in rural counties in east NC that are traditional Dem areas that Obama lost. This is enough to shift the race into Lean Democratic for now but it could easily shift back to Tilt D.

Tilt D

Colorado: This is another race which is over hyped by the establishment. Originally, Cory Gardner (R), a representative of a conservative exurban and rural congressional district, was the Republican savior candidate. People keep saying he is an amazing contender but I have yet to see what makes him such a strong candidate. All Gardner has done since he stepped into the race is flip flop and stumble over the personhood issue (Colorado has a ballot initiative deciding whether a fetus is a person or not). With women's issues at the forefront this year with the Hobby Lobby ruling, Gardner needs to be careful. He should also take note that the 2010 Republican losing Senatorial candidate, Ken Buck (R) said he should be elected because he doesn't wear high heels. Gardner also released an ad saying one may like Udall but that does not mean one should vote for him. This may seem to be a strong attack according to pundits but the pundits need to look at North Dakota Senate in 2012. Republicans tried the exact same attack on Heidi Heitkamp (D) which failed. A PPP poll came out showing Gardner with a 2 point lead and while PPP is almost always right, the poll also shows the President with a 35% approval rating. With the President having an approval rating in the low-mid 40s nationally and Colorado has mirrored the national average, 35% seems a bit low so the sample may have skewed more conservative. If the poll showed the President with a low mid 40s approval in Colorado, this poll probably would be an accurate picture of the Senate race. Plus, Colorado polls always underestimate the Democratic performance. In 2010, Dem Gov. Hickenlooper was supposed to win by 4 points and U.S. Senator Michael Bennett (D) led in only one poll since Sept. 14th but Hickenlooper won by 14 and Bennett won by 2.


Lean I:

Kansas:
Senator Pat Roberts (R) was originally a shoo in for reelection but Kansas Republicans have faced a backlash. Kansas' Republicans are divided between a conservative and moderate wing and Gov. Sam Brownback (R) offended the moderate wing. He's down in the polls and appears so desperate that he released an ad attacking his opponent for going to a strip club. The unpopularity of Republicans seems to be hurting Roberts, who also is under fire for claiming his Kansas home was a laz-boy place. Also, Greg Orman (I) is an Independent candidate and former Democrat who persuaded Chad Taylor (D) to drop out of the race (even though the Secretary of State found the relative of a Republican campaign staffer to sue Taylor,) and Orman is ahead in every single poll but one since August and led in a Marist poll by 10, shifting this race to Lean Independent. Roberts does not appear to be recovering so Orman should be able to win this. Orman though has stated he will caucus with whatever party is in the majority. If he is a tiebreaker though, history suggests he will go with the Democrats because of his views and the fact that the Democrat dropped out of the race.

Pure Tossup

Arkansas:
This seat has bounced back between Tilt R, Tilt D and Tossup but if the election were held today, the Republican would have a very minor edge but not quite enough for Tilt R (thanks to a poll from Suffolk which does not have a Democratic bias showing Pryor leading by 2 points). Pryor is from a political family and in 2008 faced no opposition. Arkansas has changed as Republican gained all congressional seats and the Legislature. In February, Obamacare was extremely unpopular and Pryor was being tied to it. In July though, Pryor seems to have regained his footing. While Arkansas may vote Republican nationally (supporting Romney with 61%,) it is open to voting for Democrats locally if those Democrats connect with the voters. Pryor's style is folksy and resembles Arkansas while Cotton went to Harvard and may appear too wooden and East Coast for Arkansas. Also, Pryor has been campaigning on a minimum wage increase, an important issue in Arkansas which will be on the ballot this year. Cotton got into hot water on income inequality issues by recently comparing food stamp recipients to drug addicts and voting against farm bill funding and the only pediatric hospital in Arkansas. While Arkansas is socially conservative, many voters here agree with Democrats on economic issues.

Iowa: Longtime Senator Tom Harkin (D) is retiring and Rep. Bruce Braley (D) is running against Joni Ernst (R). Ernst is most famous for being 2014's version of Sue Lowden (she was a Nevada Senatorial candidate suggesting that people should trade chickens for healthcare,) and ran an ad about castrating pigs.  However, in the last few weeks, polls have shifted and shown Ernst has taken a narrow lead. There is no explanation for the leading shifting suddenly to Ernst after polls in August and early September showed Braley leading. In the first week of October though, three polls have been released, one showing Ernst ahead by two, one showing them tied and another showing Braley leading by one point. This shows the race as basically a complete tie. It may shift toward Braley. Democrats have booked extra airtime for late October so it is possible Braley might pull a Joe Sestak and start spending heavily in the very end and win over voters (but hopefully unlike Sestak, Braley will win). Also, the polls showing Braley behind show the undecideds and Democratic leaning voters, suggesting that Braley may need to consolidate his base. One way to do that is add a more personal tone to his ads and his newest ad on bipartisanship does that to an extent. Also, Democrats are underpolled in Iowa. The RCP final average had Obama winning by two points and he won by six.

Louisiana:
 Senator Landrieu (D) may be from a political family (her brother Mitch is mayor of New Orleans) and has survived close elections in 2002 and 2008 but this may be her last year. Polling shows this race to be close. One potential negative for Landrieu is the jungle primary system. All candidates run in one election on election day and if no one gets 50%, there is a runoff in December. While conventional wisdom suggests runoffs have lower turnout rates, especially for Dems, turnout during the 2002 Senate runoff where Landrieu was expected to lose (she won) was only down by 1%. Also, Landrieu is running close because she is supported by voters who support Republicans nationally but personally like Landrieu and her moderate views. Landrieu though does have support from oil companies which are powerful in Louisiana and could help her campaign immensely. What is keeping Landrieu in the running though is that her opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) has made a few stumbles on the campaign trail.


Tilt R

Alaska
Sen. Mark Begich (D) is running a strong campaign as a moderate in a state President Obama lost by 13 points. In order to win, Begich needs a strong margin among Native American voters who generally have low turnout rates as well as keeping his strength in the Anchorage area (he's a former mayor). Dan Sullivan (R) has been leading a few polls however. Alaska seems to have a problem of having polls that underestimate Republicans at a first glance. This helped Stevens in 2008 and Murkowski in 2004. What the difference in those races were that they favored incumbents. Alaska seems to have support for incumbents and one fact analysts tend to forget was that in 2010, Joe Miller (R) was in the lead but Lisa Murkowski (R) came from behind in the general election to win, even though Miller was more conservative than her. Also, President Obama lost Alaska in 2012 by only 13 points, (he lost 2008 by 20) and polls were predicting a loss closer to 20 points. This suggests that Alaska's underpolling favors incumbents, not necessarily Republicans but since most Alaska incumbents are Republicans, the underpolling favors them. Also, Native Americans in Alaska usually favor Republicans and they are hard to poll but Begich has worked aggressively to court them so there is a strong likelihood they will support him. Remember, if a Democrat seems to be tying Murkowski in the polls in 2016, the chances of Democrats winning it are very small because Alaska polls underestimate incumbents. Still, Sullivan's lead puts this race in the Tilt R category for now.

Georgia:
This race has been close for awhile. Republican David Perdue (R) is the strongest candidate the Republicans could find unlike some of his primary opponents (who believed that evolution was a lie and that Todd Akin's rape comments were partially right). Perdue is less conservative though. This means that daughter of Senator Sam Nunn (D), Michelle Nunn (D) the Democratic candidate does not have a major chance to win this seat. Nunn though has an extensive registration program looking at registering African Americans and has the ability to reach out to conservative rural white voters. Nunn's goal is to win 30% of Georgia white voters which can be done by appealing to southern rural white voters in Georgia that voted for Sam Nunn and upper middle class white voters in the Atlanta area who used to be strongly Republican but are turned off by the Republicans' shift to the right. Polls continue to show Nunn in the high 20s with white voters and enough undecideds to get her to 30%. What the polls do not say is where those undecided white voters are located. Also, Nunn's campaign is undergoing a large registration operation among African American voters so it is possible they will have a higher percentage in the electorate and Nunn can win with white support in the high 20s. While polls throughout September showed Perdue with a small lead, he recently released an ad linking Michelle Nunn's organization, Points of Light to terrorism. The ad has been criticized and even one of the Bushes criticized the ad. This could change the trajectory of the race. Also, David Perdue said he is proud of outsourcing (let's ask Mitt Romney how comments like that help win votes). The only problem though is that if no candidate gets 50%, there is a runoff and Democratic turnout tends to drop in runoffs in Georgia. This runoff is in January, after a possible runoff for the competitive Gubernatorial race. Nunn has been spending heavily on November turnout, suggesting they feel pessimistic about the runoff turnout and believe the only way to win is by increasing November turnout.

Kentucky:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has maintained a consistent small lead throughout the summer. Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D) has run a strong campaign in a state that President Obama lost by 24 points. This race would have been Lean R if I wrote it in late September.  However, this race barely makes it in the Tilt R category thanks to two new polls. The first is from the Melman group which showed Grimes ahead by 2 points. Melman famously predicted the Democrats' wins in North Dakota and Nevada Senate races in 2012 and 2010 respectively despite other polling firms showing Republicans in the lead. Also, SurveyUSA which does not have a reputation for any Democratic bias showed Grimes ahead by 2 points (they showed McConnell ahead by four points in late August in line with most pollsters at the time). This shows that Grimes may be winning traditionally Democratic voters in eastern Kentucky who usually back Republicans in federal races but Democrats must win in order to win statewide.

Lean R

South Dakota:
Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retired and Democrats nominated Daschle aid Rick Weiland (D). Republicans however got one of their strongest candidates in former Gov. Mike Rounds (R). Also, former Republican Larry Pressler (I) is running as an Independent and getting about 25% of the vote. Polls show that Pressler is actually taking more votes away from Weiland than Rounds surprisingly. Weiland though has been attacking Pressler as a conservative in order to win back Democrats. Rounds also has been facing trouble from the EB-5 scandal. Also, a super PAC supporting campaign finance reform (yes they exist) just announced they are spending 1 milllon on behalf of Rick Weiland. A poll was released showing Rounds with 35, Pressler with 32 and Weiland with 28. Pressler is an Independent with little funds so he could easily lose because Independents tend to fizzle (at least unless there's no Democrat or Republican on the ticket like in Kansas). The support would likely go to Weiland because Pressler tends to align with the Democrats (he endorsed President Obama in 208 and 2012). Also, on October 8th, the DSCC just announced a $1 million ad buy in South Dakota. $1 million goes a long way in a small state such as South Dakota and that $1 million could be used in competitive races such as Iowa and Arkansas but the DSCC clearly sees something in South Dakota. Therefore, this race is at Lean Republican for now but if more polls show a close race, it will move to Tilt R or even Tossup.

Safe R

Alabama:
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) will not have any trouble here.

Idaho:
There are rumors Governor Butch Otter (R) may have a closer than expected reelection but all Senator Jim Risch (R) should worry about whether his margin is closer to 20% or 40%.

Maine:
Democrats are expected to takeover the Maine Governorship.  Sen. Susan Collins (R) fans however have taken over Maine.

Montana:
Democrats won the Senate and Governorship here in 2012 but this time, they lost their main candidate after a plagiarism scandal and will be unable to win. Also, former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) was supposed to run for the seat but declined.

Nebraska:
This seat may not be a 20 point win for Republicans but it will be still be a solid win.

Oklahoma:
Despite calling global warming one of the biggest hoaxes on American people, poll numbers showing Sen. James Inhofe (R) in the lead are not a hoax.

Oklahoma 2:
Tom Coburn (R) is leaving, another Republican is replacing him.

South Carolina:
Lindsey Graham (R) loves to talk about the embassy attack in Benghazi (but not about the 13 embassy attacks that occurred while George W. Bush was President,) and will have six more years to mention it.

South Carolina 2:
Tim Scott (R) should win his special election to Senate.

Tennessee:
Lamar Alexander (R) got above 60% even in 2008, the most Democratic year since I was born, nothing to see here...

Texas:
John Cornyn (R) is facing David Alameel (D) who may not be a weak candidate but is no Wendy Davis (and while I even see Davis doing better than most pundits predict, she will not win).

West Virginia:
Sen. Jay Rockeller IV (D) vacated this seat and despite nominating Sec. of State Natalie Tennett (D), Democrats will lose a Senate seat in West Virginia for the first time in decades. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is extremely popular and does not have the baggage that McConnell does in neighboring Kentucky.

Wyoming:
There may have been some drama when Senator Michael Enzi (R) would face a Liz Cheney (R) but after some misshaps, she dropped out of the primary and Enzi can win easily in heavily red Wyoming.

Overall, the Senate battle will be extremely close either way. By looking at the poll numbers though and the fundamentals, it seems that Democrats have an extremely narrow advantage. They will have to win at least one of the Pure Tossups in order to win (assuming they hold all the Democratic Leaning states and Orman caucuses with them). It could easily shift direction though and it is possible Republicans will sweep all three pure tossups.

The Big Tossups of the Cycle

 The 2010 election season as many pundits know is a year where almost every race is competitive for both Democrats and Republicans. The pundits like to say it is a Republican year with Democrats being the party in trouble? Am I disagreeing with that? No I am not and the Democrats will definitely get a big beating and have a poor chance of holding the House. They will probably hold the Senate but the question is will they lose 6 or 9 seats out of the 10 Republicans must win to control the Senate? Unlike 2000 where the political races came down to Florida and 2004 where they came down to Ohio, this election is more like 2008 where control of the Senate will not come down to one seat. The same is true for the control of the House and the majority of Governorships which Republicans will definitely gain. The object of this post though is to highlight those big tossup races to watch during election night for both the Senate and the Governorships. Although those races are crucial to deciding who controls the Senate, the Republicans will not gain the Senate even if they pick up all the tossups. If they can get races such as Washington and California into the tossup column though, they will have a shot at picking up the Senate though. Anyway, here are those important Senate and Gubernatorial tossups that will keep you up on election night:

Senate Pure Tossups (4 seats)

Colorado: At first, this race appeared to be in Ken Buck's (R) column. Buck is a teabagger who has extreme beliefs such as he is better than any opponent of his who wears high heels and that being gay is a choice. Does he really think people would choose to be gay when people keep denying them rights and bullying them in school? Anyway, Michael Bennett (D), the former Colorado Superintendent of Schools is getting closer in the polls with a Rasmussen poll showing Buck ahead by only 2 points. He is helped by a great ad "extremes" where he talks about Colorado's extreme mountains, extreme rivers and extremists. At the end, he says that some extremes are good but not Ken Buck. Also, the Democratic base in Colorado may be waking up too. Overall, it appears that the combination of the base coming home and moderate voters realizing how extreme Buck is are the factors tilting the race toward Bennett. How far will it tilt though?

Illinois: If any race is within one point or heads for a recount, it will be this one. Unlike Colorado, this race has not experienced a shift toward either party. This race has always been a tossup with two not so popular candidates. Mark Kirk (R) may be moderate AND he may be from the crucial suburban collar counties BUT he lied about his Vietnam war record and yesterday he lied about legislation he passed. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis (D) is running in a heavily Democratic state where Obama is still popular BUT his family's bank is running into problems, making him look poorly. In Illinois, Democrats need to turn out heavily Democratic Cook County with Chicago and some Democratic suburbs. Giannoulis is not inspiring so having Obama come and help him is exactly what he needs. This campaign is very nasty and closepin sellers will become rich when people buy closepins to hold their noses when they vote.

Nevada: This is yet another race full of noseholding. Harry Reid (D) as the Majority leader in the Senate is getting blamed for Nevada's poor economy even though he has passed numerous legislation helping Nevada including a bill that prevented massive teacher layoffs. At first, Reid was in trouble against rich Sue Lowden (R) but after she suggested you should trade healthcare benefits for hens and roosters, she lost the Republican primary. Sharron Angle (R) won the primary and she is equally (or worse) as strange as Lowden. Angle wants to eliminate social security, the right of people to drink liquor (I bet the casino unions and the casinos love her,) and she wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Of course, you may have heard about her recently saying that Hispanics look Asian. Harry Reid is taking advantage of Angle and running ads attacking her whenever he can. Reid is still in a dead heat with Angle even while Nevadans are familiar with her extreme views. Overall, I think Reid pulls it off by 2 points because of Nevada's strong Democratic Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation and some Hispanics shifting to Reid after Angle's comment and an ad encouraging Hispanics not to vote.

Pennsylvania: If I had published this post on Tuesday, there is no way I would put this race on here. Most polls have showed fake moderate Pat Toomey (R) leading by 7 points...a few weeks ago. Former Admiral Joe Sestak (D) from the pivotal Philadelphia suburbs has been lying low. The polls have been narrowing ever so slowly but a new poll came out yesterday showing Sestak ahead. The poll is from PPP, a firm famous for getting the results of NJ Gov, MA Sen and the Maine anti gay rights initiative right on target (no pun intended, Target is in MN anyway.) Another poll came out today (not an internal for Sestak) from the Morning Call showing Sestak leading by three. This is similar to May when Sestak was trailing Arlen Specter (D) in the primary. Then Sestak came out of nowhere campaigning really hard. He won by eight points while pundits predicted a nailbiter. Sestak seems to be attempting a late surge again by slowly but surely running more ads until it explodes (which should be really soon.) Is Sestak ahead? Maybe he is ahead or maybe he is behind but it is certain this race is becoming closer. If the trend keeps up, more polls will show a close race and everyone else will view it as a Tossup.

Governor (2 races)

Florida: Although this race has been shifting, most of the time it has been close. State CFO Alex Sink (D) was always a shoo in for the Democratic nomination and I thought she would face Attorney General Bill McCollum (R). Rick Scott (R) leaped into the race though and playing on voter anger, won the Republican primary. Scott has money and is spending it while Sink does not have as much. She has been going negative against him which works until Scott starts spending again. Then he retakes the lead against her. Right now, Scott seems to be retrieving the lead again. He also shows how strong voter anger is right now because he is drawing support even though his company has been accused of fraud, the Government raided it and the company ended up paying 1.7 billion in settlements. Sink is highlighting Scott's past but will it work? Although the race always has about a 3 point lead for either candidate, this race will be very close. No, I am NOT looking at a 36 day hassle over yellow jacket...er butterfly ballots again but I am looking at a 2 point win by either candidate. It all depends on who can win the I-4 corridor with Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Oregon: Democrats have recently been bragging about a pacific firewall which I am worried about now that Patti Murray (D) in Washington State is leading by 3 points and Barbara Boxer (D) in California is leading by only 5. Oregon though has always been a close race. In Oregon, John Kitzhaber (D), the former Governor of Oregon who won with 64% in 1998 wants his old job back. It looked like an easy win until May when polls showed basketball player Chris Dudley (R) (who is famous for breaking the record of missing 13 consecutive free throws) in a tight race. Dudley has raised twice as much money as Kitzhaber and not until Labor Day did Kitzhaber campaign actively. His hard work seems to be paying off though because a few polls have shown Kitzhaber is taking a small lead. Still, Dudley has the money and it is a Republican friendly year. Also, Oregon is the only state that votes entirely by mail and many voters have mailed in their ballots. In the last two weeks though, Kitzhaber has had the wind at his back and Oregon is trending Democratic so Kitzhaber will probably pull it out but barely.

Do you think these races are all tossups? Should I add more races? Who do you think will win these races anway? Please feel free to share your thoughts.