New Jersey Redistricting with Christie in Office

Camden and Vicinity

Southern New Jersey

Central New Jersey

Western New Jersey

Urban New Jersey

Northern New Jersey

The census should show that New Jersey will lose one congressional district. Currently, New Jersey has 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans representing it in the House of Representatives. Democrats control New Jersey's State Legislature and Governor Christie is a Republican so I expect there will be a bipartisan deal. I combined the districts of Rush Holt (D) and Leonard Lance (R) in a district that leans Democratic but Lance can win in it since it contains alot of his current district. I strengthened all the other incumbents and kept the 10th and 12th district African American and Hispanic majority respectively. For this map, I tried to not make it too convoluted because realistically, I do not see that happening. Also, I calculated the partisan data for these districts by town and I tried not to split the towns. I had to in a few cases but the partisan data should be accurate most of the time. Also, I calculated it for the top two candidates only. Here are some helpful links

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
For results by town: http://njelections.org/2008_general_election.html
For map of current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NJ

For map of the state: maps.google.com

District 1 Rob Andrews (D)
Demographics: 17% African American, 10% Hispanic and 68% White Partisan data: Obama 209,913 64%, McCain 116,314 36%
Communities of interest: Camden, Pennesauken

The district grows a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic neighborhoods in Burlington County to help strengthen the 3rd district. I also added more of Gloucester County and the areas I added are marginal. I also added a heavily Democratic slice of Salem County. Overall, I made mostly minor changes so Rob Andrews should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democrat

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 11% Hispanic and 76% White

Partisan data: Obama 179,951 49%, McCain 188,164 51%

Communities of interest: Vineland, Atlantic City, Berkeley

LoBiondo looks safe in his current district but since Obama won his current district 54%-45%, a bipartisan plan would strengthen him. To strengthen LoBiondo, I mostly removed Democratic areas. I removed Democratic parts of Salem County and some Democratic areas in Cumberland County. Since LoBiondo lives in Vineland, I could not remove it. I also removed small parts of Atlantic County but Obama barely won them. The main additions in Burlington County are Medford and Southampton which lean Republican. To completely shore up LoBiondo, I added about half of Ocean County and McCain won a 25,000 vote margin in the portion I added. These changes help boost McCain's performance from 45% to 51%, ensuring LoBiondo safety and his sucessor's safety too. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Adler (D)

Demographics: 20% African American, 10% Hispanic and 64% White
Partisan data: Obama 202,172 63%, McCain 120,457 37%

Communities of interest: Cherry Hill, Burlington, Trenton

I definitely strengthened Adler so he will have no problems with reelection. I strengthened him a bit too much though. I removed all of heavily Republican Ocean County while adding territory in South Jersey that leans Democratic as well as more Democratic territory in Burlington County. I also added Trenton which voted 92% for Obama so that brings up the Democratic total. I had to give Adler Trenton because I do not see Christie signing a bill with Trenton in the 7th district. Overall, Adler should have no problem in this district. Corzine won it in his unsucessful Gubernatorial run in 2009. Status is Safe Democratic.

District 4 Chris Smith (R)

Demographics 8% Hispanic, 83% White

Partisan Data: Obama 138,535 43%, McCain 184,011 57%

Communities of interest: Toms River, Lakewood, Freehold

Chris Smith seemed safe already, even with Democratic parts of Mercer and Burlington Counties inside his district. He lives in the Democratic parts of the district but he would probably not mind moving as long as his district is safer. I increased McCain's percentage from 52% to 57% by removing most of the Democratic areas along the Delaware River and adding more Republican areas in Monmouth County. Smith should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Scott Garrett (R)

Demographics: Hispanic 6%, Asian 6%, 85% White

Partisan Data: Obama 154,049 43%, McCain 215,083 57%

Communities of Interest: Newton, Rockaway and Montvale

This district does not go through large changes but the few I made strengthen Garrett. I removed marginal towns in Bergen County such as Bergenfield and Ridgewood. I mostly did this because the 9th district needed room to expand. I added in some Republican townships in Morris County. I also kept Garrett's home, Wantage in the district. Increasing the McCain percentage here should keep Garrett safe for until he retires. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 13% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 58% White

Partisan Data: Obama 165,102 58%, McCain 117,226 42%

Communities of Interest: Edison, Asbury Park, New Brunswick

Pallone's district gets a bit weaker. I removed Plainfield to give more African Americans to the 10th and since I tried to keep town boundries intact, I removed the small Democratic slice of Somerset County. I replaced it with Woodbridge and Edison which lean Democratic even though Christie barely won them. Still, Pallone is entrenched here and since the minority population is growing quickly here (the white population was 65% in 2000,) this district should grow more Democratic. Pallone should not have trouble. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) vs. Leonard Lance (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 8% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 69% White

Partisan Data: Obama 215,083 58%, McCain 154,049 42%

Communities of Interest: Ewing, North Brunswick

This district may at first look like a sure win for Holt because he has represented his district since the 90's and this district contains most of his old territory. Lance is a freshman but he is a moderate. He also ran a great campaign in 2008, winning against Linda Stender (D) by nine points in a district Obama barely carried. Stender was a good candidate and she almost beat Mike Ferguson (R) who formerly represented the 7th district in 2006. Also, the territory here is less Democratic than it looks with high income independents who swung heavily toward Christie in the Gubernatorial race last year. About the areas in the district, I had to remove Trenton because I think Christie would never sign a plan putting Lance in the same district as Trenton. Still, the district is Democratic with other parts of Mercer County as well as Democratic areas in Middlesex County. Overall, this should be a tough battle but Holt should win. Status is Lean Democratic.

8th District Bill Pascrell (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 29% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 53% White

Partisan Data: Obama 193,000 +-2,000 63% McCain 113,000 +-2,000 37%

Communities of Interest: Westfield, West Orange, Paterson, Clifton

I had to split some towns in this district so the vote totals are not exact. Overall, his district gets more Democratic by a few points. I removed all the Republican parts of Passaic County, leaving only Paterson, Clifton, Passaic and a few small Democratic suburbs. Obama won 74% of the vote in the 8th district's part of Passaic. I added most of western Union County which Obama and McCain split but most of the time, Republicans should win that area. I also added a slice of Bergen County which is also split between Obama and McCain. These changes should not affect Pascrell much because Paterson and neighborhoods in Essex County keep this district strongly Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Steven Rotham (D)

Demographics: 7% African American, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 56% White

Partisan Data: Obama 181,000 +-1,000 62%, McCain 113,000 +-1,000 38%

Communities of Interest: Jersey City (part,) Englewood, Hackensack, Garfield

Rotham's district gets a touch more Republican but does not make many changes. I gave the district some northern Bergen County suburbs such as Bergenfield and Tenafly which lean Democratic. The only areas I removed were Fairview and North Bergen which are heavily Democratic. These changes should not affect the composition of the district strongly. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Donald Payne (D)

Demographics: 55% African American, 17% Hispanic and 23% White

Partisan Data: 82% Obama, 18% McCain

Communities of Interest: Plainfield, Rahway, Linden, Elizabeth, East Orange, Newark

Since I split most of the towns in the district, I decided to just estimate the partisan data. Also, Payne's district changes a bit. I did not remove many areas from it but I added Plainfield and the marginal Union County suburbs for a few reasons: Plainfield has an African American majority and since the 10th is New Jersey's African American majority district, I decided it should be included. Also, the 10th helps shore up the 8th by taking in some marginal suburbs. I am not sure if the New Jersey legislature would go for this but since it would help keep the 10th African American majority, they would go for it. The district still remains heavily Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Harding

Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 75% White

Partisan Data: Obama 162,166 47%, McCain 184,827

Communities of Interest: Dover, Morristown

I weakened Frelinghuysen a bit by removing all of Republican Sussex and Warren Counties. I also removed parts of Morris County too. The new areas I put in the district are mostly in Somerset, Union and Essex Counties. The new areas are marginal but Obama overperformed in most of the district so Frelinghuysen should still be very safe. Status is Safe Republican.

12th District Albio Sires (D) West New York

Demographics: 10% African American, 53% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 30% White

Partisan Data: Obama 76% McCain 23%

Communities of Interest: Linden, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Hoboken, Newark

Since I split too many towns in this district, I had to estimate the partisan data. Overall, the district experiences few changes. I added all of North Bergen as well as Fairview in Bergen County. I also added a few neighborhoods in Elizabeth but besides this, I made few changes. Sires's district gets more Hispanic and he remains safe. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this redistricting plan? Do you have a redistricting map or idea you want to share? Please feel free to share your thoughts. 

New York Redistricting Map

Long Island

New York City

Westchester County and vicinity

Upstate New York

Western Upstate New York

Buffalo/Rochester area

The 2010 census will be here shortly and that is when legislators redistrict congressional districts. There is this tool called Dave's Redistricting App that lets you create maps of the new congressional districts. Dave's Redistricting App now has partisan data for New York! New York has 29 U.S House seats and New York is expected to lose one due to slow population growth. There are currently 27 Democrats and 2 Republicans representing New Yorkers in Congress. I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation and he represents Buffalo and Rochester suburbs. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in western Suffolk County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district's heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa's (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama's performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. "Important areas" refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Here are some helpful links:
For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Congressional_Districts

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_york_map.html
Where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island
1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson, Patchouge and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is alot safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village vs. Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Change: Obama -7

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King's current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel's district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 181,941 57%, McCain 137,845 42%

Demographics: 17% African American, 11% Hispanic and 68%White Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47% Change: Obama +20

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, Seaford, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains his home and large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district's new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,592 55%, McCain 140,394 44%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian and 72% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -6

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but it was the best I could give her. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60's for Obama. McCarthy might dislike getting used to her new territory but it is only a few points less Democratic from her old district should she should be safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36%
Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley's district that the 5th has is Crowley's home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 193,857 81%, McCain 43,718 18%
Demographics: 50% African American, 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 18% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%
Change: Obama -15

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district's number are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district, he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,916 84%, McCain 26,857 15%
Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Change: Obama +10

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City's growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district's votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York's 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 134,644 65%, McCain 69,317 34%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 20%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -17

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler's home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 124,137 63%, McCain 71,713 36%

Demographics: 10% African American, 17% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 54% White Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44%
Change: Obama +16

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama's percentage here from 55% to 63% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 10%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 185,755 84%, McCain 34,960 15%

Demographics: 51% African American, 16% Hispanic and 25% White Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to protect it. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 199,766 90%, McCain 20,258 9%

Demographics: 57% African American, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 20% White. Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 154,211 85%, McCain 26,156 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White. Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters levels. I barely kept Velazquez's home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 239,860 80%, McCain 56,360 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler's home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 219,782 92%, McCain 18,728 7%

Demographics: 35% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 158,103 94%, McCain 10,173 5% Demographics: 27% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%
Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano's district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,893 61%, McCain 105,865 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White. Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel's district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama's percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 188,392 61%, McCain 116,831 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey's district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

Upstate

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,336 55%, McCain 133,922 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,121 54%, McCain 145,588 44%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County help make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 179,619 54%, McCain 144,301 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schnectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama's percentage from the high 50's to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,175 54%, McCain 143,225 45%
Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa's home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa's district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,891 54%, McCain 125,010 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onodaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama's performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 162,838 54%, McCain 131,420 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48%

Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Onodaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama's margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama's performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates piling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,745 57%, McCain 136,803 42%
Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Onodaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, YatesMaffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei's home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 138,514 42%, McCain 183,587 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52%

Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 188,071 55%, McCain 146,218 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama's performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,743 61%, McCain 120,668 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30%

Change: Obama -16

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama's performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this plan? Do you have a redistricting plan or idea you want to share. Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts. 

Revised Maryland Redistricting

Central Maryland

East Maryland

West Maryland

I created these redistricting maps with this great tool called Dave's Redistricting App like I did with the other maps. I already did a map with Maryland redistricting on swing state project in September but now that Obama/McCain election results are incorporated into maps of Maryland, I decided to create a new map this time knowing how each congressional district I made voted for Obama. I decided to do an 8-0 Democratic map without creating a convoluted gerrymander. I also wanted to make sure none of the district violated the Voting Rights Act which requires Maryland to have two African American majority districts. If you are confused with the district labeling, CD4 is for the red district while CD8 is for the light purple district. CD3 is for the purple district and CD6 represents the teal district. Gerrymanders are when redistrictors create maps with districts that are not too compact but instead send tendrils out to pick up areas with certain voters. I think I gerrymandered a bit with the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts but on the most part, I probably avoided a large gerrymander. My main goals here were to shore up Frank Kratovli (D) who barely won in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional district last year. I also wanted to make Roscoe Bartlett's 6th district too Democratic so he would retire. Here is a link to the current map of Maryland's Congressional districts: http://http//www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Redist/congd02/cong02_md.htm

Here is a link for Maryland's demographic data: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/maryland_map.html

Here is yet another link, this time for 2008 election results in Maryland: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

1st District Frank Kratovli (D)
I could not split the eastern shore because the Maryland State Legislature would probably not back that kind of plan. The old district went onto the western shore taking in heavily Republican parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties. For this plan, I sent the 1st into Democratic Annapolis and up north towards Prince Georges County. Along the way, I slipped in some Democratic parts of Anne Arundel County besides Annapolis and put about 130,000 people in Prince George's County into the 1st. This raises Obama's percentage of the vote to 54% which is about the same as my old map. Prince Georges County had high turnout in 2008 because of Obama but the turnout may drop in an off year election, causing trouble for Kratovli. He should still win because the Republican base in the 1st district is in the Eastern Shore which is Kratovli's base. In 2008, the Republican challenger did well on the western shore. Demographics are 25% African American and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

2nd district Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

By creating a more compact district, I included more Republican areas in the district. Giving the 2nd district more of Baltimore compensates a bit but I still decreased the African American population from 27% to 23%. The 2nd district represents many working class neighborhoods in Baltimore City and Baltimore County and most of those votes should support Democrats except they might lean towards former Governor Bob Ehlrich (R). Unless a candidate like Ehlrich runs, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning. Obama won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% African American and 68% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

3rd district John Sarbanes (D)

I removed all of Anne Arundel County and parts of Baltimore County. I replaced those areas with Carroll County, more of Howard County and a bit more of Baltimore City. Even though Carroll County is heavily Republican, the Democratic areas in Howard County, Baltimore City and County make the 3rd district heavily Democratic. Also, I increased the African American percentage from 16% to 23%. In my last map, the 3rd district voted 55% for Obama because I did not have enough of Howard County and too much of Carrol County. Now with these changes, Obama won a solid 60% of the vote. Demographics are 23% African American, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th district Donna Edwards (D)

Originally, this district contained heavily Democratic areas in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties. In my old map I gave the district some Republican parts of Frederick County. Now this version of the 4th district has part of Carroll County too. The district also does not violate the Voting Rights Act because 50% of the population in my 4th district is African American. Donna Edwards should have no trouble winning here against a Republican. Obama won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Steny Hoyer (D)
Steny Hoyer is the House Majority Leader so he should get whatever kind of district he wants. By removing parts of Prince Georges County and adding Republican parts of Anne Arundel County, the district grows less Democratic. Even though he should win in this district, he may not view it as safe enough for him. Still, the 27% African American population should be enough to protect him. Obama won 57% of the vote here. Demographics are 27% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

6th District Vacant

This district formerly belonged to octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett (R) but since I moved his home out of the 6th, the district is currently vacant. Since I put the majority of the district in Montgomery County, the district turns from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. I also slipped in a small piece of Prince George's County which was in the old 8th district and basically caused Chris Van Hollen (D) to win there in 2002. The Republican areas in the west should not be enough to offset Democratic margins here. Obama won 61% of the vote in the new 6th. Demographics are 14% African American, 7% Asian, 12% Hispanic and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

7th District Elijah Cummings (D)
This district also barely meets the VRA standards but it does. It also includes heavily African American and Democratic parts of Baltimore City and County (Obama won 98% of the vote in many of the precincts) but also goes to the Pennsylvania border and includes heavily Republican exurban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties. Even though the suburban areas are extremely Republican, the district still remains heavily Democratic and Cummings should not have much trouble with reelection. Obama won 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American and 42% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

8th District Chris Van Hollen (D) v. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Since Bartlett is very old and this district is anchored in Montgomery County, he should just retire instead of facing a hard race. Van Hollen is a strong candidate with deep pockets. Anyway, Van Hollen's new district contains most of Frederick County which leans Republican and retains part of Montgomery County which leans Democratic. Obama won 64% of the vote here. Demographics are 14% African American, 11% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

How Christie won in New Jersey: Urban and Northern New Jersey

Here is my next and last post in analyzing county by county why Christie beat Corzine in New Jersey. Here is my first post: http://http//frogandturtle.blogspot.com/2009/11/how-christie-won-in-new-jersey-southern.html

Here is the link to the 2008 election results (red is Democratic and blue is Republican)http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Here is the link to the 2009 election results: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2009&fips=34&f=0&off=5&elect=0

Here is the link for New Jersey demographics by county: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_jersey_map.html


Urban New Jersey
This area contains Union, Essex and Hudson Counties. Christie underperformed the most in this part of the state with Corzine winning it almost 2-1. This was no surprise because Urban New Jersey is by far the most Democratic part of the state. It is minority majority and mostly resembles a city instead of suburbs. Christie also was unable to make large inroads here. In Hudson County where Obama won 73%-26%, Corzine won 69%-27% which only shows a decrease in the Democratic margin by 5 points, the smallest decrease of any county in New Jersey from 2008 to 2009. Hudson County is 35% White, one of the smallest percentages in New Jersey. Christie had a difficult time making inroads among minority voters. The main reason for Christie's small increase is that Corzine lives in Hoboken, a really nice town in Hudson County where alot of transplants from Manhattan live. Corzine's proximity was a large factor in Hudson County. Since Christie had a difficult time winning minority voters, it appears that Republicans can still win in New Jersey without having to make inroads among minorities if they want to win. Essex County which contains heavily Democratic Newark voted 67%-28% for Corzine while Obama won there 76%-23%. This shows a 14 point decrease in the Democratic margin, only 5 points below the statewide decrease of 19 points. Even though Corzine appeared to hold minorities, there are many independent high income white voters in the western part of Essex County that trended heavily toward Christie, causing the Democratic margin in Essex County to shrink. Union County is where Christie performed the best, decreasing Obama's 28 point margin to an eight point margin for Corzine. While Union County contains Elizabeth and Plainfield, two cities with large minority populations, Union County is basically Somerset County in the west with heavily white and high income Westfield and Summit. In my post about what to watch for in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, I said Corzine had to win Union County but ten points or more and unfortunately, he did not. Overall, Corzine did very well in Urban New Jersey by preventing Christie from making large inroads among minorities.

Northern New Jersey
Except for Passaic and Bergen Counties, Christie did very well here. He pulled a combined margin of about 30,000 votes out of Sussex and Warren Counties, even though Daggett did very well in them winning 9% and 10% of the vote there. Christie won his home county, Morris by 28 points and its residents are mostly high income white voters. The trend towards Christie over 2008 was 19 points, the same as the overall trend towards him in New Jersey. The reason for the trend not being too sharp in Morris County is party due to Daggett's strong 8% of the vote here and that Christie appeared to spend more time campaigning on the Shore than here. Passaic County is a different story where Corzine won 51%-44% and Obama won there by 22 points. Passaic County is a mixture of Hispanic immigrants in the city of Paterson and high income white voters in the suburbs along with some working class white voters. The Hispanics probably kept Passaic County from trending too far to the right but it appears that Christie did very well with white voters and Corzine failed to excite the base enough. Corzine won Bergen County by 3 points, only a 6 point decrease from Obama's 9 point win. Corzine was definitely helped by his running mate Loretta Weinberg who has held political office in Bergen County for more than 20 years. Bergen County is full of high income white voters and if Weinberg were not on the ballot, Christie would probably win Bergen County by about 7 points. Weinberg was not perfect because she was unpopular with party bosses which probably contributed to low turnout in Democratic areas. Also, Corzine's close proximity in Hudson County may have swayed a few voters.

So overall, what happened to make Corzine lose? On the issues, people swayed towards Christie not because he was a fantastic candidate. In New Jersey, almost all campaigns are negative so the candidates spent most of their time criticizing each other. People believed Corzine was an ineffective Governor who caused the New Jersey economy to sour while he sat in his office counting all his money. Also, Corzine made the mistake of not appeasing the New Jersey Democratic party. If he had chosen a popular party official as his running mate instead of Weinberg who was unpopular with the party, Corzine may have been able to boost turnout enough to offset Christie's margins. A good person for running mate would be Richard Codey who was the New Jersey Senate President. He was active Governor in 2005 and he is extremely popular with New Jersey's Democratic party. He was even considered last August as a candidate to replace Corzine on the ballot. The turnout levels in Democratic counties was about 50%-60% of the 2008 Presidential election turnout while turnout in Republican counties was closer to 66%. Christie on his part excited the base because he portrayed himself as one of the voters on the Shore or in the high income suburbs. He also took independents by highlighting New Jersey's poor economy. The main reason though is that Christie swept the high income voters who trended towards the Democrats in the 1990's because the Republicans were too socially Conservative. Now that the Republicans are downplaying their social Conservatism and highlighting the poor economy, they are able to win in the Northeast suburbs again. If Democrats want to start winning in New Jersey again, they have to excite the base while also reaching out to the white high income socially moderate but economically Conservative suburban voter.

How Christie Won In New Jersey: Southern and Central New Jersey

The New Jersey Gubernatorial race appeared to resemble one of the Obama/Clinton primaries in 2008. In those primaries, Clinton lead until about two weeks before the primary where Obama started kicking his volunteers into full geer. Then in the last few days (or the last second as in New Hampshire,) Clinton came from behind and won. The comparison does not include Clinton's tactics or political beliefs, it just includes what the polls showed in the primaries. In early 2009, Chris Christie (R) was ahead of incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) and in the summer, Christe lead by ten points. I was not too worried until then because since 1997, Republicans are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy. Christie painted himself as a new voice and blamed Corzine for the economic recession. Corzine highlighted his experience on Wall Street and pointed out how Christie had no real plan for fixing the economy (Christie, releasing the same economic plan twice does not mean you have two economic plans.) Then in September, the race became very narrow. Independent Chris Daggett began to take independents on the Jersey Shore and Republican suburbs around Somerset and Morris Counties. Corzine, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs began running ads with his gigantic warchest and overall spent around $23 million, about 12 million more than Christie. These two factors heavily contributed to Christie's slip in the polls but Daggett was the more prominent factor. He had numbers in the teens throughout October while Christie and Corzine hovered around 40%. This pattern remained until the last few days until election day on November 3rd. Many Daggett supporters realized that Daggett could not win so they began drifting towards Christie. This explains the final result where Christie beat Corzine and his running mate Loretta Weinberg from Bergen County 49%-45% with Daggett winning most of the remaining 6%. It looks like Charlie Brown finally got what he wanted. Corzine also learned that attacking your opponent's weight does NOT gain voters. On average, Corzine won 12 points less than Obama and the margin between the two races leaned towards the Republicans by 19 points. Corzine did not lose much ground among minority voters but Obama performed much better among independent white voters. Yes, the main reason Corzine lost was that Daggett's poll numbers fell down the drain. In this post though, I will explain how Christie won by analyzing each county in Southern and Central New Jersey. In an earlier post, I wrote about what to watch in New Jersey during election night. Besides analyzing the Gubernatorial race results, I will also compare to my last post. As in the last post, the geographical designations are in the same places. Okay, here are the links: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
for election results in 2008. Once you click the link, go to the icon choose another office, select gubernatorial races, select a year and you should find yourself a map.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_jersey_map.html
This is for New Jersey's demographic data. Click on a county and you will find it for each county.

Southern New Jersey
In my last post, I said that even Corzine wins, he should still lose Southern New Jersey. Corzine lost and he definitely lost Southern New Jersey. Camden County is the most urban county in Southern New Jersey and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. I said that Corzine needed to win by at least 15 points to win. Corzine barely missed, winning by 14 points. This explains that Christie was able to win white middle class independents but Christie lost Camden County because of heavily Democratic Camden City and its close suburbs. In my last post, I said that if Corzine won Gloucester County, he was sucessful with winning white voters in Camden County. Christie won Gloucester County by three points so Christie's sucess among the Camden County suburban voter was widespread. Gloucester County has the same demographics as Camden County without the inner city. I found heavily white and rural Salem County's result unexpected. Christie won by six points and since the county narrowly voted for Obama, I would have expected a larger Christie win. The answer to this question could be that Daggett peeled away enough Christie voters to narrow the margin. Daggett won 10% of the vote in Salem. Another interesting result is Cape May County where Obama won 45% of the vote but Corzine won 38%, higher than counties with similar counties on the Jersey Shore. This could be because Kim Guandango, Christie's running mate helped him in Monmouth and Ocean Counties further north but not at Cape May. Corzine won Cumberland County 50%-42% winning ten points less than Obama. I expected a smaller drop here due to large numbers of minority voters. As always, Atlantic County was the complete bellweather in the race as it was in 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2008. Christie won 49% of the vote and only 0.05% less than his statewide average, 48.75%. Atlantic County's population is 61% White, one point less than New Jersey's 62% White population. Atlantic County culturally may be closer to Las Vegas on the beach than the rest of New Jersey but Atlantic County has a close proportion to the rest of New Jersey of urban, suburban and rural areas. Ocean County just to Atlantic County's north voted for Christie by 38 points and the increase over McCain's margin in 2008 was only a bit above the average increase. The important point is the turnout which is about 2/3 the level of 2008, showing that Christie was able to turn out the base. Another important county was Burlington County which usually votes 1-2 points more Democratic than New Jersey and has similar demographics to Camden County. Christie won Burlington County by two points showing his narrow margin among the demographic of southwestern New Jersey white voters. Overall, Southern New Jersey voted similar to what I expected.

Central New Jersey:
Christie received large margins here, losing only one county. Christie lost Mercer County which contains heavily Democratic Trenton by only 16 points, 19 points less than Obama. Most of the voting was polarized with Christie gaining more than average over McCain while Christie gained less in heavily Democratic areas. Mercer County was a different story because even though it was a base county, the base did not turn out and Christie made inroads among the white voters here. In Monmouth County on the Shore, Christie's running Kim Guandango who is from Monmouth County definitely helped him there. Obama lost Monmouth County by three points even though it is an upper class county that is 77% White. Christie won by 31 points, improving over McCain's margin by 28 points. The large increase is probably due to not only Guandango but also that Daggett was unable to garner enough votes. He won only 6% of the vote and I expected the Shore would be a strong area for Daggett. If Daggett stayed strong and won somewhere around 15% of the vote, he probably would have reudced Christie 64,000 vote margin in Monmouth County by about 15,000. Another reason for Monmouth County's strong Christie result is that the New York suburban white voter is trending towards the Republicans. As long as the Republicans stay away from cultural issues, they can start winning these voters again. If Democrats want to keep these voters, they need to highlight how they will keep your job or create one for you. Moving onto Hunterdon County, Christie won there by 40 points, 27 points higher than McCain's 13 point margin. Hunterdon County has wealthy independents and the large shift towards Christie is probably because Obama overperformed with wealthy independents and they are reverting back to their normal voting patterns. Also, many of the wealthy voters may have trusted Wall Street so were angry that a former Wall Street corporate executive could not fix their economy. Somerset County is less Republican but contains many of the same voters as Hunterdon County. When I saw the Middlesex County result, I was pretty shocked. Obama won there by 22 points but Christie won by three. Middlesex County was not extremely white, its population was 53% White. Most of the minorities were Hispanic or Asians but Christie did not appear to make inroads among those groups. My explanation would be that Corzine failed to turn out the base and Christie did extremely well with white independents. Northwestern Middlesex County is close to his home, Mendhem so Christie's close proximity probably helped him.
Overall in Southern and Central New Jersey, Christie and Guandango's homes helped them win voters while sweeping independents and preventing Corzine from turning out his base.
My next post, this time analyzing Urban and Northern New Jersey should be up in about a week.

What to Watch for in the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race

This race has definitely been turning in every direction possible. In the begining of 2009, Republican Chris Christie had a small lead. In the summer, Christie was leading easily and now, it looks like an extremely close race. I have seen a few suggestions that Corzine should win by two to three points. I actually have to agree with them. The main question I plan to address in this diary is what to watch for on election night. I am not planning to address campaign strategies, it will only be what you should watch in each county while the votes are reporting. I know a Gubernatorial election is extremely different from a Presidential election. It does not matter if Corzine or Christie wins the swing counties, it matters who racks up the most votes. For example, if Corzine won all the swing counties, it could require only a shift of a few votes to win them all. However, the swing counties determine how well Christe, Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett are doing in parts of New Jersey. During this diary, I will split New Jersey into four geographical areas. They are Southern New Jersey, Central New Jersey, Northern New Jersey and Urban New Jersey. The counties in Southern New Jersey are Burlington, Ocean Counties and all the counties south of them. The counties in Central NJ are Monmouth, Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex. Urban New Jersey is Union, Essex and Hudson Counties. All the other counties are in Northern New Jersey.

Southern New Jersey
This area leans Democratic in most elections. I believe that Christie should beat Corzine here for a few reasons: Corzine tends to do better than average in urban areas but below average in suburban areas. Southern New Jersey is mostly suburban except for Camden County which has 517,000 people. Southern New Jersey has more white voters and more independents than the rest of the state and Christie should do well with these groups. If Daggett grows stronger, southern New Jersey should be one of his strongholds. He goes to Ocean County every summer but then again, so do many other New Jersey residents. The only solid stronghold Corzine has here is Camden County which he won 60% of the vote in 2005 and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. Camden County is 63% White, just above the 62% White population of NJ. Therefore, I believe that Corzine needs to beat Christie in Camden by more than 15 points if Corzine wants to win. To do that, Corzine needs to maximize minority turnout but also win over middle class white voters in the Camden suburbs. Other counties in Southern Jersey are mostly swing counties except for Ocean County which is going solidly for Christie due to all the Conservative retirees there. Cape May County should also go the same way. Salem County is a small rural county which Obama barely won but Christie should win due to its working class voters. If Corzine were sucessful with white working class voters in Camden County, he would win Gloucester County which demographically is Camden County without the heavily Democratic city Camden and its close in suburbs. Cumberland County with Vineland is 53% White with large numbers of Hispanics and African Americans. Due to the large minority population, Christie should fail to win this county where Obama won 60% of the vote. If Christie wins Cumberland County, expect Christie to be moving to Trenton and Corzine moving back to Hoboken. Burlington County which gave Obama 59% of the vote seems to be one of the three big bellweathers. Even though it voted 2 points more for Obama than the rest of the state, the population is 72% White. Most of the white voters are the working class voters Corzine needs to win over along the Pennsylvania border from Salem County to Trenton. The other bellweather county is Atlantic County. In one sense, it is completely different from most of New Jersey. It represents beach communities while New Jersey has some nice beaches New Jersey is basically a suburb, not a beach resort or a gambling capital. Obama won 57% of the vote here, Corzine in 2000 won 50%, in 2005 Corzine won 53%. These percentages are also the percentages of the respective candidates statewide wins. Demographically, Atlantic County is like the rest of New Jersey. The population is 62% White, the same as New Jersey. Also, there is a correct balance between urban and suburban. Atlantic County has Atlantic City as the urban area, some suburban mainland communities and some rural areas in the Pine Barrens. This relates to New Jersey as a whole because there are urban areas in Essex and Hudson Counties with suburban counties further out and a few rural areas. Since Christie appears more popular on the shore, I could see him winning Atlantic County by one or even two points but still losing. This is why I believe that if Corzine wins Atlantic County, he wins the Governorship.

Central New Jersey
I will start with Mercer County where Trenton, New Jersey's capital is located. With heavily African American Trenton and Princeton University, Chrisite has absolutely no chance winning in Mercer County. John McCain even failed to win a single municipality in Mercer County which explains why he won only 31% of the vote here. There are some working class voters here but not as many as the other Delaware River counties. Corzine's percentage should drop below Obama's because Corzine will not get Obama's boost of African American and University turnout even though Obama's recent visit may help a bit. To hold down Chrisite, Corzine needs to beat him here 3:2 and if Corzine can do that, this shows he was able to bring Democrats out to the polls. Monmouth County along the shore is 77% White with a mix of Conservatives and middle class voters should be an easy win for Christie and his Lieutenant Governor candidate Kim Guadango who lives there. This area is possibly strong Daggett territory so if Daggett gets more than 20% of the vote here, expect Christie to be in trouble. Hunterdon County is a high income Conservative area where Christie needs to slow down Daggett's advances. Somerset County should be watched carefully. It has high income voters and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 lost the county. Somerset County definitely has been trending Democratic with Obama winning 52% of the vote and Somerset County barely trended toward Bush from 2000 to 2004, even with 9/11. Corzine's sucess as a businessman may appeal to the high income voters but Chrisite's close proximity in western Union County and the independent streak of the voters should give Somerset County to Christie. Daggett has a chance to overperform here among all the independents so if Christie can carry Somerset County by more than 15 points, he definitely has won. Christie can still win with a few less votes here. Middlesex County is 53% White. It does not have a singificantly high African American or even Hispanic population, Middlesex County is 19% Asian. Middlesex County is not the most important county in New Jersey but Corzine should try to keep his margin at about 10 points.

Urban New Jersey
This is the smallest area I designated in New Jersey. There is a fair argument for including Passaic and Bergen Counties but most of those counties are suburban. Hudson, Essex and Union County are all expected to go for Corzine and Daggett should win few votes in these areas because independents are less abundant here. Also, an important group are Hispanics who are 41% of the population in Hudson County. Corzine has not cracked down harder on immigrants but he has not pushed to help them. Christie however does not address immigration directly on his website. Corzine does not either but he does address diversity, has worked to improve health care for minorities and he started a panel that discussed immigration reform. Since Christie and Daggett represent the more Conservative suburban voters, I do not see them making inroads in Hudson County. Corzine lives in Hoboken which is a really nice Liberal town filled with transplants from Manhattan. Corzine has always overperformed in Hudson County, winning 75% of the vote there in 2005 in his sucessful Gubernatorial race against Republican Douglas Forrester. Corzine won 53% of the vote, like John Kerry but Kerry won 67% of the vote in Hudson County, much worse than Corzine. Another county to watch is Essex County which contains Newark and is heavily Democratic. Christie should make few inroads there due to its large minority population. Corzine would at least need to receive about 60% of the vote there if he wants to win. Union County is probably the most crucial county in Urban New Jersey. It is basically Essex County in the east and Somerset County in the west. Even though it is Christie's home county, Corzine should still win it due to margins in Elizabeth. If Christie can pull it close in his home area, it shows he is winning overall. This is why Christie needs to hold Corzine below a 10 point win in Union County.

Northern New Jersey
Except for Passiac County and possibly Bergen County, Christie looks set to sweep this area. Warren and Sussex Counties are both heavily Republican and lightly populated so Christie should have no trouble winning them. Morris County also looks like a set Christie win because Morris County is traditionally Republican and McCain won 54% of the vote there. The issue for Christie in Morris County is that Daggett should be able to garner votes there. During the election, I expect Christie's and McCain's percentages to remain similar and if Christe beats Corzine by more than 20 points, Christie's percentage in Morris County should be near McCain's. If Christie wins Morris County by less than 20 points, it will show Daggett made inroads or Corzine overperformed so Christie needs to win by more than 20 points. Passaic County is the only county in northern New Jersey that Corzine looks set to win. If Corzine does not win Passaic County, it will demonstrate he failed to increase turnout in the central cities and therefore he will lose. I believe if he is reelected, he will have won Passaic County by six points or more. In 2000, Corzine won Passaic County by eight points and won the Senate seat by three. Passaic County includes heavily Hispanic Paterson but also some Republican suburbs which are outnumbered by Democratic areas. The real county to watch is Bergen County. Obama won 54% of the vote, 3 points less than his 57% statewide win. Corzine lost the county by three points in 2000. The White population is above average for New Jersey. On paper, it appears that Corzine can lose Bergen County but still beat Christie. I would agree except the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate is Loretta Weinberg who is from Bergen County. Weinberg is 74 years old but neither Christie nor Daggett has made her age an issue. She represents that 37th Legislative district which is mostly in southeastern Bergen County, a Democratic area. Someone running for Lieutenant Governor should not have the biggest influence on the voters but Weinberg has been in Bergen County politics since Gerald Ford was president. She was elected in 1975 to countywide office and has remained in Bergen County politics since. Her problem is that party bosses are not crazy about her but that should not impact Bergen County as much as other counties. If Weinberg had a large effect on the campaign, Corzine could win Bergen County and still lose to Christie but if Weinberg's effect was minimal, Corzine could lose Bergen County but still beat Christie.

Here are the last words: If you look at the final map and see Corzine won a line of counties stretching from Bergen to Cumberland, Corzine has won. Also, ask yourself; is Christie pulling up large margins along the shore, is there large turnout in Urban New Jersey, how heavily is Union County swinging towards Corzine, who is leading in Bergen County and how large is Corzine's margin in Camden County?

Alabama Redistricting

This is my first real post conducting analysis of something here in a long time. The other maps here were just so people on swing state project could see them. I hope in the future, I will use both this blog and Swing state project to post my opinions. My next post should be about the New Jersey Gubernatorial race. Now here is a Democratic Gerrymander of Alabama. My goal was to keep the representation at 4-3 Republican. I know Bobby Bright is a Conservative blue dog so I gave a heavily Black district. This should make his voting record more Liberal or a Black candidate could easily challenge him in a primary and win. At the same time, I kept Artur Davis's district majority Black to protect his sucessor if he vacates his seat to run against Richard Shelby. As for the four Republicans, they are all safer than they used to be, including Mike Rogers. I had to make some sacrifices but I thought it would be better if we had 3 strong seats. I still was unable to strengthen Griffith because I could not go Cleo Fields and send a finger down to the Black belt. Still, I could not avoid an extremely grotesque gerrymander. P.S This was double posted on swing state project too.

1st District Jo Banner (R) Blue

Yes, this district grows more convoluted. I added Covington, Geneva counties and Houston Counties to the east which are heavily Republican. I removed Monroe County which leans Republican but has some Democratic areas. The main change to this district was sending a finger from Bobby Bright's district down to Mobile to take in Black precincts. I kept in Republican parts of Mobile so I probably kept Banner's home in here. I kept his district contiguous by water with Mobile Bay. The courts may object to this district but since it gets more Republican, Banner should be happy. McCain probably won 70% of the vote here, up from 61% in the old district. Demographics are 16% Black and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.

2nd District Bobby Bright (D) Green

He keeps his Montgomery County home base but besides that, his district completely changes. I removed heavily Republican southeastern Alabama from his district. I replaced it with all of Montgomery County and some Democratic counties currently in the 3rd such as Macon and the 7th such as Dallas. Yes, this district is the culprit of the Mobile County finger. I sent up the finger to Talladega to stregthen the 2nd and 3rd districts for their respective parties. Overall, I wanted to knock down two birds with one stone in this district. Not only would there be another Black majority district in Alabama that was heavily Democratic, Bobby Bright will have a tough time holding onto the seat if a Black candidate challenges him in the primary. Unless Steve Cohen from Memphis decided to move here and run, Bright should probably lose. A possible candidate would be the Liberal Black mayor of Mobile, Sam Jones. He is pretty old but he was also the first Black mayor of Mobile. Overall, this district looks set to change. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 57% Black and 38% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

3rd District Mike Rogers (R) Purple

To protect the 2nd district, I had to stregthen Rogers because it was impossible to make the 2nd district safe and keep the 3rd vulnerable. Rogers won only 53% of the vote in 2008 against Democrat Joshua Segall so Rogers should be thrilled with the new plan. I made some drastic changes to protect him by removing heavily Democratic Montgomery, Macon and part of Russel Counties. I added heavily Republican counties to the south of the old district. As a bonus, I removed Segall's home in Montgomery into the 2nd so Rogers now has no strong challenger. Just to shake Rogers up, I removed his home and put it in the 4th district. Overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 33% to 22%, so McCain win to probably 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.

4th District Rodney Aderholt (R) Red

I made some minor changes to the district but McCain still crushed Obama here. I removed Cullman and Blount Counties, both areas where residents of Birmingham are moving. More than 70% of the old district's residents lived in rural areas and more do now. I added Calhoun and Clerburne Counties, both rural and heavily Republican. Those counties explain the makeup of the entire district. McCain probably won 73% of the vote here, a bit lower than the current percentage but not much different. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Parker Griffith (D) Yellow

This was the district that is closest to its current form. I could not move it at all because this was the safest district I could make for Griffith. I hope we can keep him and if he survives 2010, he probably will keep winning. The problem is that in 2008 when he was elected, there was high Black turnout. In 2010, it should be normal unless Artur Davis runs for U.S Senate. Since Blacks are only 17% of the district's population, they do not make a big impact. I want most blue dogs to become Liberals but Griffith should remain as Conservative as he wants, he is another vote for Pelosi. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

6th District Spencer Baucus (R) Teal

On the most part, I was able to leave Baucus alone. His old district was the most Republican district in the U.S in 2008 and should be even more so. I removed Chilton and Coosa Counties which are Republican but not as Republican as Cullman and Blount Counties which I put into the district. I pushed this district further out of slow growing Jefferson County so overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 11% to 8%. McCain probably won 80% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Republican.

7th District Artur Davis (D) Gray

Davis is currently the only Black member of Congress in Alabama. He may no longer be if he gets the nomination to challenge Senator Richard Shelby (R) in 2010. I feel that no one has viewed Davis as a formidable candidate. He might appeal to some white voters because he is pretty Conservative on a few issues. He could be the Harold Ford of Alabama without the corrupt family background. In Tennessee, Ford lost to moderate (for the South) Republican Bob Corker. Shelby is a Conservative and a turncoat which he probably could not use to his advantage. If Davis can bring Black turnout up to 30%, he would have to win about 30% of the white vote to win. In Alabama, this appears hard to do but Davis has a shot. Back to the district, I barely kept the 7th district majority Black because I had to trade some areas such as Hale County with the 2nd and I took in more of Jefferson County for population purposes. Even with the reduced Obama percentage, I expect Davis or his replacement to win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 51% Black and 44% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

New Post on Swing State Project

I just put a new post on Swing state Project. It is about Colorado redistricting this time. Click the link below to check it out.

http://http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5656/colorado-redistricting

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For the moment, I have stopped posting political articles on here. The post below me has the link (just click the title and there you are.) Comment if you have any questions. Thanks!