California Redistricting

(Beware, this post is very long so read if you are not in a rush.)

First, this is finally finished! It took me a couple of months to map and write, including when half of the write up mysteriously vanished.

This is a hypothetical map but I wanted to see how big a Democratic gerrymander I could create. I tried to keep only seven Republicans safe while making the other seats winnable for the Democrats. Although 2010 is definitely looking like a bad year for the Democrats, 2012 with Obama on the ticket should be better. 2010 should be better than expected but that's another story. I drew this map assuming California has 53 congressional districts after the census. Yes, I know that keeping only seven Republicans safe could turn into a dummymander because I weakened too many Democrats. I hope to avoid that and I made current Democrats safe. Many of  the shakier seats should trend Democratic overtime so the Democrats will be able to pick up all the seats I made for them sometime in the decade if not 2012. I created 33 Safe Democratic, 9 Likely Democratic, 3 Lean Democratic, 2 Toss Up, 1 Likely Republican and 6 Safe Republican seats. Besides the Republican district, Obama does not win less than 53% of the vote in any district. He wins 53% in only one and 54% in two. Also, I gave the Hispanics four new districts while increasing the Asian population in the 31st district and 15th district. I also protected two of LA's three African American representatives. Diane Watson is retiring so I made her district more Hispanic so the 34th and 36th districts will be more African American but the Hispanics will get an extra district.

(if the photo is not fitting on the blog, click it for the full picture. I apoligize for the poor quailty)

1st District Mike Thompson (D) St. Helena
Obama 203,307 62% McCain 117,072 36%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 13% Hispanic, 78% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Santa Rosa, Eureka
Status: Safe Democratic

I removed most of Napa County except for Thompson's home in St. Helena. I also added most of heavily Republican Shasta County. The North Coast keeps the district safely Democratic though.

2nd District Wally Herger (R) Chico
Obama 160,489 55%, McCain 122,712 43%
Change: Obama +24
Demographics: 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 72% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Davis
Status: Lean Democratic

Herger's seat makes a big turn to the left because I removed Shasta County and Republican parts of Butte County. I added parts of Democratic Sonoma and Yolo Counties. Herger is unfamiliar with these areas so he should have trouble making inroads in them. Although he still has his home in the district, I should say he will lose by seven points to a strong challenger.

3rd district Dan Lungren (R) Folsom
Obama 148,675 56% McCain 110,520 42%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 7% African American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 67% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Folsom, Citrus Heights
Status: Likely Democratic

Lungren is already shaky in his current 49%-49% seat so a 56% Obama seat would be too Democratic for him. I added parts of Sacramento where he is not entrenched while removing Republican areas outside of Sacramento County. A strong challenger in 2012 when Obama is on the ballot should be able to knock off Lungren.

4th District Tom McClintock (R) Granite Bay
Obama 149,211 41% McCain 203,357 57%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 8% Hispanic, 85% White
Communities of Interest: Roseville, Lincoln, Rocklin
Status: Safe Republican

The only real change is that McClintock loses the Democratic Lake Tahoe area. He gets even safer with the addition of more Republican areas.


5th District Doris Matsui (D) Sacramento
Obama 165,279 62% McCain 96,765 36%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 12% African American, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 50% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove,
Status: Safe Democratic

Although her district picks up some moderate Sacramento suburbs, her district still remains strong for her with a base in Sacramento.

(click for full picture)

6th District Lynn Woolsey (D) Petaluma
Obama 223,326 68% McCain 99,268 30%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: San Rafael, Petaluma, Napa, Yuba City
Status: Safe Democratic

First, this is my home district! I am not too pleased with this district because Central Valley Democrats will have an influence over voters next to San Francisco. The district is still anchored in the North Bay so when Woolsey retires, a North Bay Democrat will replace her. A good candidate is Jared Huffman, a liberal State Assembly member from Marin County which cast 48% of the district's Obama votes with 1/3 of the district's population. Marin County does not have a representative in the State Senate or the House so when Woolsey retires, Marin probably will have one in the House (finally.)

7th District George Miller (D) Martinez
Obama 182,391 68%, McCain 83,750 31%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 14% African American, 20% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg
Status: Safe Democratic

George Miller loses most of Richmond and gains all of Solano County which drops the Obama percentage a bit but Miller is still safe.

8th District Nancy Pelosi (D) San Francisco
Obama 282,287 85%, McCain 41,850 12%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 8% African American, 15% Hispanic, 29% Asian, 44% White
Communities of Interest: San Francisco
Status: Safe Democratic

Keeping all of San Francisco except part of the Sunset District, the district does not change a bit.

9th District Barbara Lee (D) Oakland
Obama 249,791 84%, McCain 41,860 14%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 27% African American, 19% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 36% White
Communities of Interest: Oakland, Berkeley, Lafayette
Status: Safe Democratic

Lee's district gets a bit more Republican by going into the less Democratic cities in the San Ramon Valley such as Danville and Orinda but still stays extremely safe.

10th District John Garamendi (D)
Obama 208,364 65% McCain 108,189 33%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 67% White
Communities of Interest: El Cerrito, Concord, Antioch, Lodi
Status: Safe Democratic
This district keeps its anchor in north-central Contra Costa County but gains mostly white but heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Oakland and goes further into the Central Valley to pick up Republican parts of San Joaquin County. Also for Garamendi, the district picks up a few more precincts in Sacramento County.

11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Pleasanton
Obama 164,551 58% McCain 115,845 40%
Change: Obama +8
Demographics: 5% African American, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 61% White
Communities of Interest: Pleasanton, Oakley, Tracy

Status: Likely Democratic

McNerney gets safer. I was able to give him Democratic Castro Valley and Oakley while removing the Republican area around Lodi. I slipped in Livermore too because Tauscher does not represent the 10th anymore and she wanted Livermore in her district. McNerney also picks up a few precincts in Stockton from the 18th district. Most of McNerney's old territory is in the district too.

12th District Jackie Speier (D) Hillsborough
Obama 216,684 74% McCain 70,455 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: Hispanic 20%, Asian 27%, 46% White
Communities of Interest: South San Francisco (the industrial city,) Redwood City, Half Moon Bay
Status: Safe Democratic

The district picks up the San Mateo County coastline and part of Redwood City but besides that, the district remains the same.

13th District Pete Stark (D) Fremont
Obama 183,890 74%, McCain 58,035 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 7% African American, 25% Hispanic, 23% Asian, 40% White
Communities of Interest: Hayward, Fremont, Santa Clara
Status: Safe Democratic

Stark's district loses some of Fremont to the plurality Asian 15th and gains minority majority areas in Sunnyvalle and Santa Clara. These changes should affect the district much.

14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Atherton
Obama 220,962 70% McCain 90,352 28%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 13% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Los Altos, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

The district loses all of Santa Cruz County and goes into mostly white areas formerly in the 15th district. Although the changes rise the McCain percentage a bit, Eshoo is still very safe and has her home in the district.


15th District Mike Honda (D) San Jose
Obama: 170,000 70% McCain 69,345 28%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 43% Asian, 31% White
Communities of Interest: Fremont, San Jose, Cupertino
Status: Safe Democratic

This is one of the two Asian plurality districts I created on the map. I added Union City and Asian parts of Fremont while removing white neighborhoods in western San Jose. Honda should be safe here.

16th District Zoe Lofgren (D) San Jose

Obama 130,902 67% McCain 60,558 32%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 13% Asian, 50% Hispanic, 29% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Watsonville, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

I think Zoe is a great representative but I had to create more districts for Hispanic representatives. This district keeps Hispanic areas in San Jose and picks up Hispanic areas in San Benito, Santa Cruz and Fresno Counties. Although 50% Hispanic is barely a majority, the number should be 54% about now and Hispanics outside her district are not used to voting for her in the primary.

17th District Sam Farr (D) Carmel
Obama 216,197 65% McCain 109,291 33%
Change: McCain +14
Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: San Carlos, Santa Cruz, Monterey
Status: Safe Democratic

The district gets whiter and safer for Farr. It is interesting though having a district represent Peninsula and San Luis Obisbo communities. I removed Hispanic parts of Monterey County and San Benito County while adding Republican eastern San Luis Obisbo County as well as some white San Mateo County neighborhoods. Farr is still very safe.

18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Atwater
Obama 96,786 61% McCain 59,722 37%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 6% African American, 46% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 36% White
Communities of Interest: Stockton, Modesto, Merced
Status: Safe Democratic

Cardoza loses whiter parts of Merced County and picks up more Hispanic neighborhoods in Madera County, making the district a tad more Democratic and Hispanic.

19th District George Radanovich (R) Mariposa

Obama 115,407 41% McCain 157,413 57%
Change: McCain +10
Communities of Interest: Clovis, Madera, Merced
Status: Safe Republican

Radanovich’s district was safe already but now it is even safer with the removal of Democratic parts of Fresno and the inclusion of Republican parts of Merced. Also, Yosemite National Park which is Democratic was removed.

20th District Jim Costa (D) Fresno
Obama 91,480 59% McCain 61,190 40%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 6% African American, 55% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 27% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Salinas, Shafter
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Costa’s district picks up Democratic and Hispanic areas in Monterey County, the district grows more Republican as it extends into Republican white areas around Fresno formerly in the 19th district. Costa’s district is still Hispanic and Democratic.

21st District Devin Nunes (R) Tulare
Obama 70,892 53% McCain 61,228 46%
Change: Obama +22
Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 25% White
Communities of Interest: Bakersfield, Visalia, Delano
Status: Likely Democratic

This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Central Valley. Nunes’s district now takes in Hispanic parts of Fresno County and Hispanic parts of Tulare County. The district also takes in Hispanic parts of Bakersfield. This district is probably too Hispanic for Nunes so he will probably not run here. The Democrats should find a Hispanic candidate who will help increase the Obama percentage by turning out the Hispanics and having them vote more Democratic. Even if Nunes runs, he should lose.

22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Bakersfield
Obama 96,063 37% McCain 161,271 61%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 67% White
Communities of Interest: Bakersfield, Visalia, California City
Status: Safe Republican

McCarthy’s district changes as it loses San Luis Obisbo County and picks up Republican parts of Tulare and Ventura Counties. It even goes into Simi Valley which is close to the San Fernando Valley. Nunes might run in this district because the 21st is too Democratic for him. McCarthy should win because most of his current district is in the new 22nd district.

23rd District Lois Capps (D) Santa Barbara
Obama 187,384 61% McCain 115,227 37%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 31% Hispanic, 60% White
Communities of Interest: San Luis Obisbo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Status: Safe Democratic

Capps’s district gets less Democratic. I removed heavily Hispanic Oxnard and added the Republican interior of Santa Barbara County. I also added Ventura and Ojai which lean Democratic. The only place where Capps’s district is a line along the coast is in San Luis Obisbo County. Although her district becomes similar to the competitive 1990’s lines, she is entrenched enough and the areas trended Democratic enough to protect her.

24th District Elton Gallegy (R) Simi Valley
Obama 149,125 59% McCain 100,007 40%
Change: Obama +16
Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 45% White
Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, San Fernando Valley
Status: Likely Democratic

Gallegy’s district gets much more Democratic and the Hispanic population rises from 24% to 39% with the inclusion of Oxnard, Hispanic areas in the San Fernando Valley and the loss of interior Santa Barbara County. Although Gallegy is a popular incumbent, the 24th district is too Democratic. He is also not entrenched in Oxnard and the San Fernando Valley. This should get him to retire which he has been considering. This is a good district for Brad Sherman to run in because his district is combined with the more entrenched Howard Berman. The 24th also contains part of Sherman's current district. If Sherman ran, he would definitely win here.

25th District Buck McKeon (R) Santa Clarita
Obama 135,401 55% McCain 106,766 43%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 9% African American, 31% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Lancaster, Victorville, South Lake Tahoe
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Although Buck McKeon does not live in the district, it belongs to him because it contains most of his old territory. It will be harder for him to win because I added the Democratic Lake Tahoe area, moved Republican Santa Clarita and added a few Hispanic neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley. Although McKeon is popular, the district is trending Democratic, especially around Lancaster and Palmdale. If the Democrats find a great candidate, they should be able to kick off McKeon.

26th District Vacant (D)
Obama 128,868 63% McCain 71,638 36%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 5% African American, 56% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 28% White
Communities of Interest: Upland, Glendora, San Fernando
Status: Safe Democratic

This new district is also a new Hispanic majority district. It looks like David Dreier’s (R) current district but this district picks up heavily Hispanic areas instead of areas that lean Republican. It does contain Glendora which is Republican though. Still, a Democratic should have no trouble winning here and a 56% Hispanic population (and increasing) should be enough to elect a Hispanic representative.

27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Green
Obama 204,550 65% McCain 104,583 33%
Change: McCain +22
Demographics: 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, San Fernando Valley, Burbank
Status: Safe Democratic

Berman’s district gets less Democratic with the inclusion of Santa Clarita and more white but remains heavily Democratic. Sherman has less territory here than Berman so if I were Sherman, I would run in the 24th District which has part of Sherman’s current territory.

28th District Adam Schiff (D) Burbank (originally the 29th)
Obama 179,592 68% McCain 80,069 30%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Pasadena, Glendale, La Canada Flitridge
Status: Safe Democratic

Schiff’s district remains pretty similar with a high enough white population to keep him in office and Democratic.

29th District Henry Waxman (D) Los Angeles (originally the 30th)
Obama 245,543 68% McCain 111,756 30%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Thousand Oaks, Beverly Hills, Santa Monica
Status: Safe Democratic

Waxman’s district picks up marginal Thousand Oaks and loses a few Democratic areas in the San Fernando Valley. These minor changes do not affect the district’s strong Democratic lean.

30th District Xavier Beccara (D) Eagle Rock (originally the 31st)
Obama 141,239 81% McCain 29,245 17%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 5% African American, 61% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 16% White
Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic

Beccara’s district was formerly 70% Hispanic but now has less Hispanics with the inclusion of white areas formerly in Watson’s district. Beccara’s district is still heavily Hispanic and safely Democratic though.

31st District Judy Chu (D) Monterey Park (originally the 32nd)
Obama 132,559 62% McCain 78,365 36%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 38% Asian, 18% White
Communities of Interest: El Monte, Temple City, Walnut
Status: Safe Democratic

I know that Asians do not vote as one bloc but I think if given the choice, they will support an Asian candidate over a Hispanic one. Chu’s district gets more Asian with a small line to Walnut and Diamond Bar and the exclusion of Baldwin Park and the vicinity. Her district gets more Republican but she is still safe.

32nd District Diane Watson (D) Los Angeles (originally the 33rd) Orange color
Obama 149,611 83% McCain 28,305 16%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 20% African American, 53% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 12% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Huntington Park
Status: Safe Democratic

Watson is retiring and the Hispanic population is getting too high in Los Angeles to keep three districts with African American representatives. I removed white areas in the northern part of the district and added Hispanic areas on the east and west sides of the original 35th district while taking out some African American areas in the district’s center. The Hispanic population will keep growing so the district should elect a Hispanic.

33rd District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Los Angeles (formerly the 34th)
Obama 123,083 66% McCain 59,211 32%
Change: McCain +18
Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 18% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Park, Downey, La Habra
Status: Safe Democratic

Allard’s district gets more Republican with losing some Hispanic areas in Los Angeles and adding whiter Whitter and La Habra. Although La Habra is Republican, Allard’s district is still safe and Democratic.

34th District Maxine Waters (D)
Obama 202,877 88% McCain 23,877 10%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 43% African American, 41% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Inglewood, Gardena
Status: Safe Democratic

Waters’s district gets safer as the African American population increases from 34% to 43%. Also, something interesting is you can see how high African American turnout really was by looking at the precincts. There were 930 votes in a 92% African American precinct with 1,380 people.

35th District Jane Harman (D) Venice (formerly the 36th) Purple
Obama 192,875 62% McCain 113,650 36%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 26% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Torrance, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach
Status: Safe Democratic

Harman’s district gets more Republican with the addition of Rancho Palos Verdes which leans Republican. Communities in the district’s northern part like Venice keep Harman safe though.



36th District Laura Richardson (D) Long Beach (formerly the 37th)

Obama 162,948 71% McCain 61,850 28%
Change: McCain +18
Demographics: 22% African American, 40% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 23% White
Communities of Interest: Carson, Compton, Seal Beach
Status: Safe Democratic

Adding Orange County communities that lean Republican such as Seal Beach and Los Alamitos make this district more Republican. They also reduce the Hispanic population by a few points though. Richardson should have no problems from Republicans in a district where McCain won 28% of the vote though.

37th District Grace Napolitiano (D) Norwalk (formerly the 38th district)
Obama 131,462 67% McCain 59,629 31%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 66% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 14% White
Communities of Interest: Baldwin Park, Chino Hills, Pico Rivera
Status: Safe Democratic

Grace Napolitiano (D) has her home in the 38th district but she should run here because this district has most of her current district. The district becomes a bit gerrymandered by having the 32nd cut into the middle of it. Also, her district gets Republican Chino Hills. It is still safely Democratic though.

38th District Linda Sanchez (D) Lakewood (formerly the 39th)
Obama 135,584 60% McCain 87,210 38%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 6% African American, 54% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 29% White
Communities of Interest: Lynwood, Bellflower, Fullerton
Status: Safe Democratic

Napolitiano should run in the 37th district so Sanchez should be safe from a primary challenge. Also, the district should be Hispanic and Democratic enough to protect her from Republicans. Her district does get weaker with the addition of Republican parts of Fullerton though.

39th District Ed Royce (R) Fullerton (formerly the 40th district)
Obama 113,574 54% McCain 93,975 44%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 35% White
Communities of Interest: Norwalk, Cypress, Anaheim
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Royce’s district gets much more Democratic with the addition of Democratic parts of Anaheim, Norwalk and he loses Republican parts of Fullerton to the 42nd. Royce is pretty entrenched in his district but not in the Norwalk area so Democrats have a strong shot at replacing him. Also, it would not be easy for a Republican to win in a 35% White district (and decreasing.)

40th District David Dreier (R) San Dimas (formerly the 26th)
Obama 127,168 58% McCain 89,498 40%
Change: Obama +14
Demographics: 7% African American, 46% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 37% White
Communities of Interest: Pomona, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga
Status: Likely Democratic

Dreier is a pretty popular incumbent but even he will have trouble in a 58% Obama district with unfamiliar territory such as Azusa, Ontario and Pomona. He also loses the most Republican parts of his current district. Dreier will probably not run and a Democrat will win easily. If Dreier runs, he will probably not be strong enough to compete with the new Democratic areas. I hope a Hispanic politician wins this seat and although Hispanics do not make a large share of voters, there should be more in the Democratic primary.

41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Redlands
Obama 104,391 41% McCain 147,051 57%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 20% Hispanic, 69% White
Communities of Interest: Hesperia, Beaumont, Yucaipa
Status: Safe Republican

Lewis was extremely safe before and he gets even safer. Enough said.

42nd District Gary Miller (R) Diamond Bar
Obama 131,169 40% McCain 189,640 58%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 71% White
Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Murrieta, Rancho Santa Margarita
Status: Safe Republican

Miller loses his home but he does not have to live in this district to run. His district gets more Republican by picking up the Lake Forest area formerly in the 44th and Murrieta formerly in the 45th. He has no worries.

43rd District Joe Baca (D) Rialto
Obama 107,522 66% McCain 52,753 32%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 14% African American, 51% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 27% White
Communities of Interest: San Bernadino, Fontana, Ontario
Status: Safe Democratic

Baca’s district gets less Hispanic but the Hispanic population is growing quickly and he is entrenched enough to survive. He should have no problems from Republicans though.

44th District Ken Calvert (R) Corona
Obama 92,733 56% McCain 70,846 43%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 7% African American, 43% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 41% White
Communities of Interest: Riverside, Norco, Colton
Status: Likely Democratic

In 2008, Calvert barely won reelection but he lost Riverside County. Now with the Republican parts of Orange County removed, Calvert is in trouble. I also removed Republican areas in Riverside County too and the addition of heavily Hispanic Colton does not help Calvert either. Since Calvert was already weak, it should not be too difficult to find a challenger, get the DCCC interested and kick out Calvert.

45th District Mary Bono (R) Palm Springs

Obama 113,612 57% McCain 82,064 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 10% African American, 36% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Moreno Valley, Perris, San Jacinto
Status: Lean Democratic

Bono is a popular moderate incumbent but she will probably lose here. I added Democratic Perris and Lake Elsinore while removing Hemet. Also, the district has fast growing African American and Hispanic populations so if a Democrat is not reelected in 2012, a Democrat certainly will be soon.

46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Huntington Beach

Obama 163,591 55% McCain 127,405 43%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 23% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 58% White
Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa
Status: Lean Democratic

Rohrabacher keeps most of his old district where he is entrenched. Still, the addition of Irvine and Democratic Long Beach areas should be enough to unseat him with a good candidate.

47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Garden Grove
Obama 89,040 55% McCain 69,075 43%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 19% Asian, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Tustin
Status: Likely Democratic

Sanchez’s district gets less Democratic and Hispanic but Sanchez is entrenched and should win Hispanic by large margins.

48th District John Campbell (R) Irvine  Peach
Obama 135,283 48% McCain 144,225 51%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 21% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 65% White
Communities of Interest: Vista, Oceanside, Lake Forest
Status: Likely Republican

Yes, I know Campbell is a birther but I realized that if I tried to get rid of him, I would make other seats safer for Republicans that I wanted Democratic. Campbell’s district is mostly shifted out of the Irvine area into more conservative Vista and Oceanside. By the end of the decade, Campbell should be vulnerable but for now, he is unfortunately safe.

49th District Darrell Issa (R) Vista
Obama 113,663 39% McCain 175,745 59%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 73% White
Communities of Interest: Hemet, Temecula, Poway
Status: Safe Republican

Issa’s home is not in the district but he should not mind. His district gets more Republican with the loss of Perris and Lake Elsinore.

50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Carlsbad
Obama 187,575 56% McCain 144,396 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 70% White
Communities of Interest: Carlsbad, Escondido, San Diego
Status: Likely Democratic

Bilbray has faced close races in his currently marginal district but the addition of liberal parts of San Diego near the coast make the district more Democratic. He also loses more conservative areas in the east to the 53rd district. These changes should be enough to elect a Democrat.

51st District Bob Filner (D) San Diego
Obama 112,770 63% McCain 64,790 36%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 7% African American, 62% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 19% White
Communities of Interest: Indio, El Centro, Chula Vista
Status: Safe Democratic

I think Bob Filner is fine but I wanted another Hispanic congressman so I increased the Hispanic population from 53% to 62%. Although Filner has not faced many challenges recently, the change in population should attract a strong Hispanic candidate.

52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) Lakeside
Obama 135,237 56% McCain 101,445 42%
Change: Obama +22
Demographics: 7% African American, 29% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: La Mesa, El Cajon, Chula Vista
Status: Likely Democratic

This district undergoes one of the largest partisan changes under my plan. Duncan Hunter Jr. is new to this district. The addition of Chula Vista and Democratic parts of San Diego unfamiliar with him (and his father) will not help him. The changes should make the district Democratic enough to elect a Democrat.

53rd District Susan Davis (D) San Diego
Obama 167,156 60% McCain 107,595 38%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 7% African American, 24% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Cornado, Imperial Beach, San Diego
Status: Safe Democratic

Davis’s district goes inland and therefore gets more Republican but coastal areas keep this district Democratic.

Baselines for Florida's Gubernatorial Race

 Charlie Crist (R), the current Governor of Florida is not running for reelection this year because he is running for Senate as an Independent (which is another story.) He leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink  is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a Rasmussen poll showed McCollum leading by 7. This poll on April 16th is the most recent poll on the race and Rasmussen usually leans to the right. For these reasons, it is hard to tell if McCollum still has a lead. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes.

Sink's background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education commission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)
McCollum's background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.

About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is...the rest of Florida.

How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Here are some helpful links:
For 2006 CFO election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2006 Attorney General election: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/7/2006&DATAMODE=

For 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Now finally the baselines:
County name Sink McCollum Other
Alachua          59%  40%  1%
Baker             27%  72%  1%
Bay                32%  67%  1%
Bradford        35%  64%  1%
Brevard          45%  54%  1%
Broward         66%  33%  1%
Calhoun          42%  57%  1%
Charlotte        44%  55%  1%
Citrus             44%  55%  1%
Clay               28%  71%  1%
Collier            35%  64%  1%
Columbia       39%  60%  1%
DeSoto          43%  56%   1%
Dixie              42%  57%   1%
Duval             44%  55%  1%
Escambia       38%  61%  1%
Flager            49%  50%  1%
Franklin         47%  52%  1%
Gadsden        72%  27%  1%
Gilchrest        39%  60%  1%
Glades          47%  52%  1%
Gulf              43%  56%  1%
Hamilton       51%  48%  1%
Hardee         36%  63%  1%
Hendry         45%  54%  1%
Hernando     47%  52%  1%
Highlands      41%  58%  1%
Hillsborough  48% 51% 1%
Holmes           31% 68% 1%
Indian River    40% 59% 1%
Jackson          43% 56% 1%
Jefferson         60% 39% 1%
Lafayette        38% 61% 1%
Lake              41% 58% 1%
Lee                41% 58% 1%
Leon              63% 36% 1%
Levy              44% 55% 1%
Liberty           45% 54% 1%
Madison        56% 43% 1%
Manatee        45% 54% 1%
Marion          44% 55% 1%
Martin           42% 57% 1%
Miami-Dade  56% 43% 1%
Monroe         52% 47% 1%
Nassau          31% 68%  1%
Okaloosa      26%  73% 1%
Okeechobee  46% 53% 1%
Orange          53%  46%  1%
Osceola        52%  47%  1%
Palm Beach   62%  37%  1%
Pasco            46%  53%  1%
Pinellas          51%  48%  1%
Polk              44%  55%  1%
Putnam          44%  55%  1%
Santa Rosa    27%  72%  1%
Sarasota        48%  51%  1%
Seminole        43%  56%  1%
St. Johns        34%  65%  1%
St. Lucie        53%  46%   1%
Sumter          37%   62%   1%
Suwanee       38%   61%   1%
Taylor           44%   55%   1%
Union            35%   64%   1%
Volusia          51%   48%   1%
Wakulla         50%  49%    1%
Walton          30%  69%    1%
Washington   34%  65%    1%

Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.
Dark Red: McCollum 65%+
Red: McCollum 60%-64%
Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%
Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%
Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%
Blue: Sink 55%-59%
Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%
Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+

A little more analysis:

The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink's margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County's leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.

Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama's coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular Florida election.

Nevada Senate County Baselines

Dark Red: Republican 70%+

Red: Republican 60%-69%

Light Red: Republican 50%-59%

Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

This map above is the visual for the Nevada Senate county baselines. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (who Keith Olbermann calls the chicken lady,) a State Senator from Republican areas in Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. No recent poll has shown her lead (or hopefully deficit) compared to Reid. Also, Lowden benefits from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid's past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may not keep down Republican margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates' percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid's 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Link for 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City 45% 54% 1%

Churchill 29% 70% 1%

Clark 54% 45% 1%
Douglas 35% 64% 1%

Elko 27% 72% 1%

Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%

Eureka 21% 78% 1%

Humboldt 34% 65% 1%

Lander 29% 70% 1%

Lincoln 24% 75% 1%

Lyon 35% 64% 1%

Mineral 52% 47% 1%

Nye 41% 58% 1%

Pershing 37% 62% 1%

Storey 42% 57% 1%

Washoe 49% 50% 1%

White Pine 38% 61% 1%

Maryland County Baselines

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+
Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%
Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%
Blue=O'Malley 60%-69%
Dark Blue= O'Malley 70%+

This is a map for those who like visual aides like myself. This is for the baselines which I will explain below.

Robert Ehlrich (R), the former Governor of Maryland is running against Martin O' Malley (D) the incumbent Governor of Maryland. This is like a repeat of 2010 because the two same candidates are running for the same seat, except O'Malley is the Governor this time. Yes, Maryland is a Democratic state where Obama won 62% but a recent Rasmussen poll showed O' Malley ahead by only three points. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maryland/election_2010_maryland_governor
Rasmussen usually leans to the right in their polling but still, Maryland should have a competitive race. Obama had a boost from high African American turnout but most political people believe it will be lower. For your knowledge and enjoyment, I have created the baseline for Maryland counties which are the expected percentages for each candidate by county if the race is tied. I factored in the 2006 Gubernatorial election because Ehlrich and O'Malley were the candidates in it. I also factored in the 2008 Presidential election because the results are more recent and should reflect Republican and Democratic trends. The two elections combined should offer a clear picture of Maryland's county baselines. The math I used was adding the 2006 and 2008 Republican and Democratic percentages. I then divided by two and subtracted 8 from the Democratic percentage for the baseline.

A bit about Ehlrich and O' Malley's past elections: Ehlrich won in 2002 by running far ahead of Republican percentages in the Baltimore County suburbs of Anne Arundel and Baltimore County (which does not include Balitmore City.) Ehlrich used to represent a congressional district in Republican Baltimore suburbs. In 2006, he was unable to pull big margins from them because O'Malley is the former mayor of Baltimore City and he was popular with the working class Baltimore suburban voters Ehlrich won in 2002. For example, he won Baltimore County with 61% in 2002 but lost by 300 votes in 2006. For Ehlrich to win, he needs to do very well with the working class voters. He did not so he lost with 53%-46%. Enough talk about elections, here are the baselines:

Wait, here are some helpful links:

For 2006 election: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/MD/G/00/county.000.html
For 2008 election:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#MDP00p1

Now finally the baselines:

County name O'Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George's 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne's 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary's 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

As seen in the baselines, O'Malley only wins the big three (Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's Counties.) I think he should barely win Charles County which is trending Democratic quickly. Overall, the baselines should fluctuate a bit but I wanted to stay with election results, not my personal opinion on each county. Any thoughts?

We Cannot Drill Our Way Out of this

First things first, my letter about oil drilling just got published in the chronicle! Here it is:http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/01/EDA31COH4M.DTL

New Jersey Redistricting with Christie in Office

Camden and Vicinity

Southern New Jersey

Central New Jersey

Western New Jersey

Urban New Jersey

Northern New Jersey

The census should show that New Jersey will lose one congressional district. Currently, New Jersey has 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans representing it in the House of Representatives. Democrats control New Jersey's State Legislature and Governor Christie is a Republican so I expect there will be a bipartisan deal. I combined the districts of Rush Holt (D) and Leonard Lance (R) in a district that leans Democratic but Lance can win in it since it contains alot of his current district. I strengthened all the other incumbents and kept the 10th and 12th district African American and Hispanic majority respectively. For this map, I tried to not make it too convoluted because realistically, I do not see that happening. Also, I calculated the partisan data for these districts by town and I tried not to split the towns. I had to in a few cases but the partisan data should be accurate most of the time. Also, I calculated it for the top two candidates only. Here are some helpful links

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
For results by town: http://njelections.org/2008_general_election.html
For map of current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NJ

For map of the state: maps.google.com

District 1 Rob Andrews (D)
Demographics: 17% African American, 10% Hispanic and 68% White Partisan data: Obama 209,913 64%, McCain 116,314 36%
Communities of interest: Camden, Pennesauken

The district grows a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic neighborhoods in Burlington County to help strengthen the 3rd district. I also added more of Gloucester County and the areas I added are marginal. I also added a heavily Democratic slice of Salem County. Overall, I made mostly minor changes so Rob Andrews should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democrat

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 11% Hispanic and 76% White

Partisan data: Obama 179,951 49%, McCain 188,164 51%

Communities of interest: Vineland, Atlantic City, Berkeley

LoBiondo looks safe in his current district but since Obama won his current district 54%-45%, a bipartisan plan would strengthen him. To strengthen LoBiondo, I mostly removed Democratic areas. I removed Democratic parts of Salem County and some Democratic areas in Cumberland County. Since LoBiondo lives in Vineland, I could not remove it. I also removed small parts of Atlantic County but Obama barely won them. The main additions in Burlington County are Medford and Southampton which lean Republican. To completely shore up LoBiondo, I added about half of Ocean County and McCain won a 25,000 vote margin in the portion I added. These changes help boost McCain's performance from 45% to 51%, ensuring LoBiondo safety and his sucessor's safety too. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Adler (D)

Demographics: 20% African American, 10% Hispanic and 64% White
Partisan data: Obama 202,172 63%, McCain 120,457 37%

Communities of interest: Cherry Hill, Burlington, Trenton

I definitely strengthened Adler so he will have no problems with reelection. I strengthened him a bit too much though. I removed all of heavily Republican Ocean County while adding territory in South Jersey that leans Democratic as well as more Democratic territory in Burlington County. I also added Trenton which voted 92% for Obama so that brings up the Democratic total. I had to give Adler Trenton because I do not see Christie signing a bill with Trenton in the 7th district. Overall, Adler should have no problem in this district. Corzine won it in his unsucessful Gubernatorial run in 2009. Status is Safe Democratic.

District 4 Chris Smith (R)

Demographics 8% Hispanic, 83% White

Partisan Data: Obama 138,535 43%, McCain 184,011 57%

Communities of interest: Toms River, Lakewood, Freehold

Chris Smith seemed safe already, even with Democratic parts of Mercer and Burlington Counties inside his district. He lives in the Democratic parts of the district but he would probably not mind moving as long as his district is safer. I increased McCain's percentage from 52% to 57% by removing most of the Democratic areas along the Delaware River and adding more Republican areas in Monmouth County. Smith should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Scott Garrett (R)

Demographics: Hispanic 6%, Asian 6%, 85% White

Partisan Data: Obama 154,049 43%, McCain 215,083 57%

Communities of Interest: Newton, Rockaway and Montvale

This district does not go through large changes but the few I made strengthen Garrett. I removed marginal towns in Bergen County such as Bergenfield and Ridgewood. I mostly did this because the 9th district needed room to expand. I added in some Republican townships in Morris County. I also kept Garrett's home, Wantage in the district. Increasing the McCain percentage here should keep Garrett safe for until he retires. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 13% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 58% White

Partisan Data: Obama 165,102 58%, McCain 117,226 42%

Communities of Interest: Edison, Asbury Park, New Brunswick

Pallone's district gets a bit weaker. I removed Plainfield to give more African Americans to the 10th and since I tried to keep town boundries intact, I removed the small Democratic slice of Somerset County. I replaced it with Woodbridge and Edison which lean Democratic even though Christie barely won them. Still, Pallone is entrenched here and since the minority population is growing quickly here (the white population was 65% in 2000,) this district should grow more Democratic. Pallone should not have trouble. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) vs. Leonard Lance (R)

Demographics: 9% African American, 8% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 69% White

Partisan Data: Obama 215,083 58%, McCain 154,049 42%

Communities of Interest: Ewing, North Brunswick

This district may at first look like a sure win for Holt because he has represented his district since the 90's and this district contains most of his old territory. Lance is a freshman but he is a moderate. He also ran a great campaign in 2008, winning against Linda Stender (D) by nine points in a district Obama barely carried. Stender was a good candidate and she almost beat Mike Ferguson (R) who formerly represented the 7th district in 2006. Also, the territory here is less Democratic than it looks with high income independents who swung heavily toward Christie in the Gubernatorial race last year. About the areas in the district, I had to remove Trenton because I think Christie would never sign a plan putting Lance in the same district as Trenton. Still, the district is Democratic with other parts of Mercer County as well as Democratic areas in Middlesex County. Overall, this should be a tough battle but Holt should win. Status is Lean Democratic.

8th District Bill Pascrell (D)

Demographics: 11% African American, 29% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 53% White

Partisan Data: Obama 193,000 +-2,000 63% McCain 113,000 +-2,000 37%

Communities of Interest: Westfield, West Orange, Paterson, Clifton

I had to split some towns in this district so the vote totals are not exact. Overall, his district gets more Democratic by a few points. I removed all the Republican parts of Passaic County, leaving only Paterson, Clifton, Passaic and a few small Democratic suburbs. Obama won 74% of the vote in the 8th district's part of Passaic. I added most of western Union County which Obama and McCain split but most of the time, Republicans should win that area. I also added a slice of Bergen County which is also split between Obama and McCain. These changes should not affect Pascrell much because Paterson and neighborhoods in Essex County keep this district strongly Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Steven Rotham (D)

Demographics: 7% African American, 20% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 56% White

Partisan Data: Obama 181,000 +-1,000 62%, McCain 113,000 +-1,000 38%

Communities of Interest: Jersey City (part,) Englewood, Hackensack, Garfield

Rotham's district gets a touch more Republican but does not make many changes. I gave the district some northern Bergen County suburbs such as Bergenfield and Tenafly which lean Democratic. The only areas I removed were Fairview and North Bergen which are heavily Democratic. These changes should not affect the composition of the district strongly. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Donald Payne (D)

Demographics: 55% African American, 17% Hispanic and 23% White

Partisan Data: 82% Obama, 18% McCain

Communities of Interest: Plainfield, Rahway, Linden, Elizabeth, East Orange, Newark

Since I split most of the towns in the district, I decided to just estimate the partisan data. Also, Payne's district changes a bit. I did not remove many areas from it but I added Plainfield and the marginal Union County suburbs for a few reasons: Plainfield has an African American majority and since the 10th is New Jersey's African American majority district, I decided it should be included. Also, the 10th helps shore up the 8th by taking in some marginal suburbs. I am not sure if the New Jersey legislature would go for this but since it would help keep the 10th African American majority, they would go for it. The district still remains heavily Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Harding

Demographics: 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 75% White

Partisan Data: Obama 162,166 47%, McCain 184,827

Communities of Interest: Dover, Morristown

I weakened Frelinghuysen a bit by removing all of Republican Sussex and Warren Counties. I also removed parts of Morris County too. The new areas I put in the district are mostly in Somerset, Union and Essex Counties. The new areas are marginal but Obama overperformed in most of the district so Frelinghuysen should still be very safe. Status is Safe Republican.

12th District Albio Sires (D) West New York

Demographics: 10% African American, 53% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 30% White

Partisan Data: Obama 76% McCain 23%

Communities of Interest: Linden, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Hoboken, Newark

Since I split too many towns in this district, I had to estimate the partisan data. Overall, the district experiences few changes. I added all of North Bergen as well as Fairview in Bergen County. I also added a few neighborhoods in Elizabeth but besides this, I made few changes. Sires's district gets more Hispanic and he remains safe. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this redistricting plan? Do you have a redistricting map or idea you want to share? Please feel free to share your thoughts. 

New York Redistricting Map

Long Island

New York City

Westchester County and vicinity

Upstate New York

Western Upstate New York

Buffalo/Rochester area

The 2010 census will be here shortly and that is when legislators redistrict congressional districts. There is this tool called Dave's Redistricting App that lets you create maps of the new congressional districts. Dave's Redistricting App now has partisan data for New York! New York has 29 U.S House seats and New York is expected to lose one due to slow population growth. There are currently 27 Democrats and 2 Republicans representing New Yorkers in Congress. I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation and he represents Buffalo and Rochester suburbs. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in western Suffolk County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district's heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa's (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama's performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. "Important areas" refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Here are some helpful links:
For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Congressional_Districts

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/new_york_map.html
Where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island
1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson, Patchouge and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is alot safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village vs. Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Change: Obama -7

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King's current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel's district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R) Seaford

Vote totals: Obama 181,941 57%, McCain 137,845 42%

Demographics: 17% African American, 11% Hispanic and 68%White Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47% Change: Obama +20

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, Seaford, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains his home and large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district's new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,592 55%, McCain 140,394 44%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian and 72% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -6

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but it was the best I could give her. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60's for Obama. McCarthy might dislike getting used to her new territory but it is only a few points less Democratic from her old district should she should be safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36%
Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley's district that the 5th has is Crowley's home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 193,857 81%, McCain 43,718 18%
Demographics: 50% African American, 15% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 18% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%
Change: Obama -15

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district's number are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district, he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,916 84%, McCain 26,857 15%
Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Change: Obama +10

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City's growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district's votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York's 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 134,644 65%, McCain 69,317 34%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 20%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -17

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler's home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 124,137 63%, McCain 71,713 36%

Demographics: 10% African American, 17% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 54% White Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44%
Change: Obama +16

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama's percentage here from 55% to 63% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 10%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 185,755 84%, McCain 34,960 15%

Demographics: 51% African American, 16% Hispanic and 25% White Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to protect it. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 199,766 90%, McCain 20,258 9%

Demographics: 57% African American, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 20% White. Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 154,211 85%, McCain 26,156 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White. Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters levels. I barely kept Velazquez's home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 239,860 80%, McCain 56,360 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler's home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 219,782 92%, McCain 18,728 7%

Demographics: 35% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 158,103 94%, McCain 10,173 5% Demographics: 27% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%
Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano's district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,893 61%, McCain 105,865 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White. Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel's district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama's percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 188,392 61%, McCain 116,831 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38% Change: Obama -1

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey's district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

Upstate

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,336 55%, McCain 133,922 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,121 54%, McCain 145,588 44%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County help make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 179,619 54%, McCain 144,301 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schnectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama's percentage from the high 50's to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,175 54%, McCain 143,225 45%
Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa's home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa's district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,891 54%, McCain 125,010 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onodaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama's performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 162,838 54%, McCain 131,420 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48%

Change: Obama +7

Important areas: Onodaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama's margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama's performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates piling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,745 57%, McCain 136,803 42%
Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Onodaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, YatesMaffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei's home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 138,514 42%, McCain 183,587 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52%

Change: Obama -8

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 188,071 55%, McCain 146,218 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44%

Change: Obama +2

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama's performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,743 61%, McCain 120,668 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30%

Change: Obama -16

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama's performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic.

Do you have any suggestions for improving this plan? Do you have a redistricting plan or idea you want to share. Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts. 

Revised Maryland Redistricting

Central Maryland

East Maryland

West Maryland

I created these redistricting maps with this great tool called Dave's Redistricting App like I did with the other maps. I already did a map with Maryland redistricting on swing state project in September but now that Obama/McCain election results are incorporated into maps of Maryland, I decided to create a new map this time knowing how each congressional district I made voted for Obama. I decided to do an 8-0 Democratic map without creating a convoluted gerrymander. I also wanted to make sure none of the district violated the Voting Rights Act which requires Maryland to have two African American majority districts. If you are confused with the district labeling, CD4 is for the red district while CD8 is for the light purple district. CD3 is for the purple district and CD6 represents the teal district. Gerrymanders are when redistrictors create maps with districts that are not too compact but instead send tendrils out to pick up areas with certain voters. I think I gerrymandered a bit with the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts but on the most part, I probably avoided a large gerrymander. My main goals here were to shore up Frank Kratovli (D) who barely won in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional district last year. I also wanted to make Roscoe Bartlett's 6th district too Democratic so he would retire. Here is a link to the current map of Maryland's Congressional districts: http://http//www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Redist/congd02/cong02_md.htm

Here is a link for Maryland's demographic data: http://http//quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/maryland_map.html

Here is yet another link, this time for 2008 election results in Maryland: http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

1st District Frank Kratovli (D)
I could not split the eastern shore because the Maryland State Legislature would probably not back that kind of plan. The old district went onto the western shore taking in heavily Republican parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties. For this plan, I sent the 1st into Democratic Annapolis and up north towards Prince Georges County. Along the way, I slipped in some Democratic parts of Anne Arundel County besides Annapolis and put about 130,000 people in Prince George's County into the 1st. This raises Obama's percentage of the vote to 54% which is about the same as my old map. Prince Georges County had high turnout in 2008 because of Obama but the turnout may drop in an off year election, causing trouble for Kratovli. He should still win because the Republican base in the 1st district is in the Eastern Shore which is Kratovli's base. In 2008, the Republican challenger did well on the western shore. Demographics are 25% African American and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

2nd district Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

By creating a more compact district, I included more Republican areas in the district. Giving the 2nd district more of Baltimore compensates a bit but I still decreased the African American population from 27% to 23%. The 2nd district represents many working class neighborhoods in Baltimore City and Baltimore County and most of those votes should support Democrats except they might lean towards former Governor Bob Ehlrich (R). Unless a candidate like Ehlrich runs, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning. Obama won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% African American and 68% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

3rd district John Sarbanes (D)

I removed all of Anne Arundel County and parts of Baltimore County. I replaced those areas with Carroll County, more of Howard County and a bit more of Baltimore City. Even though Carroll County is heavily Republican, the Democratic areas in Howard County, Baltimore City and County make the 3rd district heavily Democratic. Also, I increased the African American percentage from 16% to 23%. In my last map, the 3rd district voted 55% for Obama because I did not have enough of Howard County and too much of Carrol County. Now with these changes, Obama won a solid 60% of the vote. Demographics are 23% African American, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th district Donna Edwards (D)

Originally, this district contained heavily Democratic areas in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties. In my old map I gave the district some Republican parts of Frederick County. Now this version of the 4th district has part of Carroll County too. The district also does not violate the Voting Rights Act because 50% of the population in my 4th district is African American. Donna Edwards should have no trouble winning here against a Republican. Obama won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Steny Hoyer (D)
Steny Hoyer is the House Majority Leader so he should get whatever kind of district he wants. By removing parts of Prince Georges County and adding Republican parts of Anne Arundel County, the district grows less Democratic. Even though he should win in this district, he may not view it as safe enough for him. Still, the 27% African American population should be enough to protect him. Obama won 57% of the vote here. Demographics are 27% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

6th District Vacant

This district formerly belonged to octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett (R) but since I moved his home out of the 6th, the district is currently vacant. Since I put the majority of the district in Montgomery County, the district turns from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. I also slipped in a small piece of Prince George's County which was in the old 8th district and basically caused Chris Van Hollen (D) to win there in 2002. The Republican areas in the west should not be enough to offset Democratic margins here. Obama won 61% of the vote in the new 6th. Demographics are 14% African American, 7% Asian, 12% Hispanic and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

7th District Elijah Cummings (D)
This district also barely meets the VRA standards but it does. It also includes heavily African American and Democratic parts of Baltimore City and County (Obama won 98% of the vote in many of the precincts) but also goes to the Pennsylvania border and includes heavily Republican exurban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties. Even though the suburban areas are extremely Republican, the district still remains heavily Democratic and Cummings should not have much trouble with reelection. Obama won 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American and 42% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

8th District Chris Van Hollen (D) v. Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Since Bartlett is very old and this district is anchored in Montgomery County, he should just retire instead of facing a hard race. Van Hollen is a strong candidate with deep pockets. Anyway, Van Hollen's new district contains most of Frederick County which leans Republican and retains part of Montgomery County which leans Democratic. Obama won 64% of the vote here. Demographics are 14% African American, 11% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe Democrat.