California Baselines

  With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California's Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman's $104 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Once Jerry Brown starts campaigning and the unions supporting him spend more money too, he should be able to pick up a few points. Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Anyway, this is going to be a close race. This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.

The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/california_map.html clearer map of California

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2008 results

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2006_general/ag.pdf 2006 Attorney General results

(click for whole image)

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%
Blue: Brown 56%-69%
Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

County Names, Brown, Meg Whitman, Percentages

Alameda 281,992 122,008 70%-30%

Alpine 228 223 51%-49%

Amador 4,056 8,215 33%-67%

Butte 25,182 38,977 39%-61%

Calaveras 5,175 10,045 34%-66%

Colusa 1,249 2,942 30%-70%

Contra Costa 173,524 121,084 59%-41%

Del Norte 2,407 3,788 39%-61%

El Dorado 20,174 40,197 33%-67%

Fresno 59,988 117,755 34%-66%

Glenn 1,766 4,655 28%-72%

Humboldt 22,494 19,085 54%-46%

Imperial 12,844 12,389 51%-49%

Inyo 1,999 3,547 36%-64%

Kern 41,243 110,109 27%-73%

Kings 6,561 16,259 29%-71%

Lake 8,346 8,312 50%-50%

Lassen 1,801 5,624 24%-76%

Los Angeles 1,246,840 888,300 58%-42%

Madera 7,606 20,002 28%-72%

Marin 62,269 29,101 68%-32%

Mariposa 1,975 4,315 31%-69%

Mendocino 16,088 10,029 62%-38%

Merced 16,694 24,938 40%-60%

Modoc 664 2,209 23%-77%

Mono 1,593 2,027 44%-56%

Monterey 49,391 34,965 59%-41%

Napa 21,903 16,864 57%-43%

Nevada 14,975 21,196 41%-59%

Orange 267,713 482,183 36%-64%

Placer 36,548 76,429 32%-68%

Plumas 2,412 4,756 34%-66%

Riverside 165,563 255,181 39%-61%

Sacramento 163,902 188,955 46%-54%

San Benito 6,553 6,309 51%-49%

San Bernadino 161,731 223,802 42%-58%

San Diego 342,077 458,103 43%-57%

San Francisco 188,722 60,745 76%-24%

San Joaquin 58,303 78,398 43%-57%

San Luis Obisbo 34,966 51,584 40%-60%

San Mateo 125,577 71,561 64%-36%

Santa Barbara 55,411 58,603 49%-51%

Santa Clara 245,302 187,329 57%-43%

Santa Cruz 56,957 26,071 69%-31%

Shasta 13,847 38,406 27%-73%

Sierra 381 913 29%-71%

Siskiyou 4,703 9,314 34%-66%

Solano 56,297 48,735 54%-46%

Sonoma 94,217 54,860 63%-37%

Stanislaus 39,683 65,299 38%-62%

Sutter 6,106 15,357 28%-72%

Tehama 4,366 11,598 27%-73%

Trinity 1,717 2,456 41%-59%

Tulare 17,799 50,792 26%-74%

Tuloumne 5,883 11,891 33%-67%

Ventura 96,762 124,914 44%-56%

Yolo 28,380 23,460 55%-45%

Yuba 4,173 9,737 30%-70%

Total 4,397,078 4,396,901 50%-50%

Changing Senate Races After Labor Day

 In many states across the country, Democrats are looking at losing Senate seats. Fortunately, most pundits including myself believe that the Republicans will not pick up enough seats to gain a majority in the Senate. Still, many people believe the Republicans will pick up about 6-7 seats and the trend is more for the Republicans. Some races though are not as solidly Republican as you may think though. It may be because the Democrat is not well known to voters or has not spent enough time to define him/herself and the opponent. Since Labor Day is not here yet, the real campaign season is not here either (unless your name is Meg Whitman and you are spending money nonstop.) That is a good example (and probably the most famous) one of the races where the Democrat has not kicked the campaign into high gear. Not all races where one candidate will start doing better after Labor Day are races where Democrats will improve. For example, Ohio has a tied race with Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D). Portman has raised a large amount of money and when he starts spending it, he should open a lead. Now here is a list of the races which should change after Labor Day:

Delaware: Michael Castle (R) vs. Chris Coons (D)
Chris Coons is the County Supervisor for New Castle County (Wilmington) which is known as the state's  bellwether. Castle is the At-Large Representative for Delaware, he is a moderate and he has represented it for awhile. Also, his moderate views make him appealing to independents. Most polling also shows Castle with about a 10 point lead. Although Coons at first appears to be in trouble, he has a good shot at making this close. Coons needs to introduce himself to voters and the Democratic lean of Delaware should help him close in on castle. Still, this race looks like Castle's to lose.

Indiana: Dan Coats (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Coats is a former Indiana Senator and a former lobbyist. Ellsworth has been a U.S House member in southwestern Indiana for four years. Coats is definitely more of the incumbent but this race will tell us whether it is really an anti incumbent year or just an anti Democratic year. Most polls show Coats with a solid lead over Ellsworth. Do not expect the lead to be so large soon. Ellsworth won by 24 points in 2006, knocking out Republican John Hosteletter (R) and he is extremely popular in that district. Once Ellsworth starts introducing himself to rural voters outside of his district, he should get closer to Coats because Ellsworth pro gun stances and other views popular in rural areas should help him. Coats voted for the Brady Bill so it is even possible Ellsworth will get the NRA endorsement. Although I expect a Coats win by 5 points, Coats's big lead in the polls now is due to Ellsworth not being well known.

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Carnahan is the Secretary of State and she won by 26 points in 2008 and won the important rural areas of Missouri. For a Democrat to win an election here, he/she must keep Republican margins in rural areas down enough so they do not offset Democratic votes in St. Louis/Kansas City areas. Also, Carnahan's opponent is Roy Blunt who is from conservative southwest Missouri where Democrats never make big inroads (so no hometown advantage for him.) Blunt also is the former Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. You would think Carnahan would have this race in the bag but most polls show Blunt leading Carnahan by a few points. The likely explanation is that since Obama is unpopular in Missouri (he did not even win here in 2008,) the unpopularity is spilling over to Carnahan. Still, she has a better shot once she starts defining Roy Blunt and reminding 61% of Missouri voters why they supported her. This race should get closer but I expect a Blunt win.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
So far, races that I am saying will change are races which should shift toward the Democratic candiate. This race though should shift towards the Republicans. Portman (R) is the former U.S Trade Representative under the Bush Administration and Bush is still unpopular in Ohio. Lee Fisher (D), the Lieutenant Governor is a solid candidate from Northeast Ohio where Democrats need big turnout to win. Most polls show a close race but after Labor Day, Portman should get a bigger lead. His advantage is that he has much more money than Fisher so he will be able to blanket the state with ads while Fisher will not. Although Fisher has the backing of the state's strong unions, it will probably not be enough for him to win.

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) vs. Joe Sestak (D)
If one race will see a big shift in polls after Labor Day, it will be this one. Joe Sestak surprised everyone by beating Arlen Specter (D) by 8 points, thanks to an ad blitz at the end with Sestak defining himself as a populist which played really well in West Pennsylvania. Also, there was a clear contrast when Specter gave a not so exciting concession speech while Sestak was very energetic. Now Sestak needs to use his energy against Toomey, a former big Club For Growth conservative. In 2004, Toomey ran as the conservative when he primaried Specter but Toomey is now running to the center. Although most polls show Sestak behind, Sestak has not kicked in his campaign yet. If there is one race that will see a big shift, it will be this one. Sestak will probably wait until the last minute to do an ad blitz but as we saw with Martha Coakley (D) in Massachusetts, waiting until the last minute is not a good idea. Still, it worked for Sestak in the primary so it might work again. This race will end up being really close.

Washington Baselines: Murray v. Rossi

 Until Chris Christie was elected, New Jersey was the state where Republicans were Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy. The Republicans kept nominating candidates there who kept losing. Finally in 2009, they nominated Christie who beat Corzine. Since Christie was elected, he has run his approval ratings to the ground, especially among teachers and other people who value education. The Christie debacle is another story for another post. This post will focus on the other state where Republicans keep attempting to kick the football. Washington State is that state. Interestingly, Washington and New Jersey voted 53% and 57% for the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2004 and 2008 respectively. Washington State was a big state for Republican gains in 1994 where an 8-1 Democratic delegation turned into a 7-2 Republican delegation. Now the delegation is at 6-3 Democratic. Since 1994 though, Republicans have not been winning too many statewide races. Democrats hold the Governorship and both Senate seats. The holders of these seats are interestingly all woman, the only state with the Governorship and both Senate seats held by women. Republicans could not beat the Senators Patti Murray (D) in 2004 and Maria Cantwell (D) in 2006. Still, Republicans have come dangerously close to winning. In 2004, a certain "moderate" Republican named Dino Rossi almost beat Christine Greigoire (D) for the Governorship but lost after a lengthy recount. He returned for a rematch in 2008 but lost by 6 points. Republicans now believe he is their candidate who can grab Murray's seat.

With the anti incumbent climate, Murray is facing a close race with Dino Rossi. He did lose one advantage in the general election though. In 2004, he was able to eat into Greigoire's margin in King County (Seattle) because he was moderate. Now he is more conservative so he can win the teabagger wing of the party. This is important for him because Washington has an interesting way of conducting elections. Instead of holding primaries for each party, the state has a jungle primary. This means that any Republican or Democrat can run in the election. If no one gets 50% or more of the vote, the top two vote getters will face each other in a runoff. If Rossi cannot win the teabaggers' approval, a teabagger may jump into the race. Most polls show Murray leading Rossi in the jungle primary but she is not winning 50% of the vote yet. Still, other polls show her winning the runoff. This will be a close election so I have here a map of the baselines for the runoff assuming it happens. This map shows how the counties will vote if the candidates tied (actually, my vote count had Rossi winning by 72 votes but a lead that small out of almost 2 million votes is close enough.) I found the baseline percentages by adding the percentages by county from the 2008 Presidential, 2004 Senatorial and 2004 Gubernatorial elections. I then divided by three. For the votes, I had turnout be 65% of the 2008 level. I used the 2008 Presidential election for current trends, the 2004 Senatorial election for Murray and the 2004 Gubernatorial election for Rossi. First, you will see a map of the baselines, then a list of the counties and their votes. Next, you will see a list of the regions which are Seattle & Vicinity, Coastal Washington and Eastern Washington. Enough chatter about baselines, here is the map (click for a better view:)

 
Dark Red: Rossi 65% +
Red: Rossi 55%-64%
Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%
Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%
Blue: Murray 55%-64%
Dark Blue: Murray 65%+

Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/washington_map.html

List of counties:

County Names Murray Rossi Percentages


Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%

Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%

Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%

Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%

Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%

Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%

Garfield 237 655 27%-73%

Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%

Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%

Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%

Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%

Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%

Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%

Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%

Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%

Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%

Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%

Here is how the baselines break down regionally:
Seattle & Vicinity
Counties   Murray Rossi

King 366,136  236,061 61%-39%

Snohomish 104,923  104,505 50%-50%

Pierce 103,807  111,561 48%-52%

Kitsap 39,653  41,604 49%-51%

Thurston 44,051  38,752 53%-47%

Total 658,570  532,483 55%-45%


Coastal Washington Murray Rossi


Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Total 184,470 211,693 47%-53%

Rest of the State

            Murray Rossi
Total 148,640 247,576 38%-62%

Senate Race Rankings: August Edition: Republican Pickups but how many?

 Welcome to the Dog Days of August everyone. Besides many people enjoying themselves on vacation, we also have many races enjoying vacations too. Therefore, there will not be too many Senate Ranking changes here...at least in the Senate races higher up the list. Although this is definitely a Republican year (at least for the House of Representatives,) Republicans may be picking up less seats in the Senate than they hoped. In my opinion, the chance of the Republicans picking up the Senate is an absolute no no. It is not because they will not steal ten seats from the Democrats, it is because Democrats may obtain some seats previously held by Republicans. The rhetoric this year is anti incumbent. For some places though, it is just anti Democratic Party (or Democrat party as conservatives will say.) For example, Delaware is looking to elect Michael Castle (R) who has served as Governor and U.S House Representative in Delaware for a very long time.

Also, Republicans are losing chances for pickups due to strong Democratic candidates or Republican candidate imploding. Nevada is the most famous example with Sharron Angle. First she thought we should get rid of social security and the Department of Education. She will not stop making gaffes either. She said she will only take questions from people who like her. Even on Fox News, she faced some trouble answering their questions. Another example of Republicans falling into problems is the Colorado Senate race. Ken Buck (R) has gone to the right to beat Jane Norton (R) as he says women do not have the right to an abortion even in cases of rape and incest. In a state that rejected a measure by 46 points to "define life from the moment of conception," these views should not play too well. Also, many of the Democratic candidates are good campaigners but have managed to close gaps or take leads because campaign season has not started yet. If you are looking for a race where a Democrat has a shot at making it close due to campaign skills, look at races like Indiana or Delaware. I expect Republicans to win those races but if the Democrats make them close, do not be surprised.

Now off to the rankings:

1. North Dakota OPEN Byron Dorgan (D)
North Dakota is known for electing candidates who are well known to voters like Democrats Kent Conrad, Earl Pomeroy and Byron Dorgan. Apparently, this applies even more strongly to Republican Governors who are named John Hoeven who are running for Senate in 2010.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)
Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D) when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Although Blanche Lincoln came from behind to win, that should not happen this time. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead by double digits. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas's next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)
Mel Martinez (R) resigned so then popular Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed LeMieux to hold Martinez's Senate seat. Now Crist wants the seat so he ran for it. Unfortunately, he learned that saying something positive about Obama's stimulus is suicide for a Republican stimulus. Marco Rubio (R) ran as the teabagger and kicked Crist out of the primary. At the beginning of the race though, a poll showed Rubio down by 53 points. Now Crist is running as an independent and most polls show him ahead of Rubio by the mid single digits. The Democratic primary is a big circus too. Kendrick Meek (D) from Miami is running against Jeff Greene, a corrupt billionaire. As Meek's chance of winning shrinks, many Democrats like me are switching to Crist because he may decide to caucus with the Democrats. The race might get closer but expect Crist to win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)
At first, this seat looked like an easy hold for the Democrats. Beau Biden, Joe Biden's son would run and that would be that. When popular Rep. Michael Castle (R) decided to run, Beau Biden decided not to. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether in Presidential so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents...Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican
 
5. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)
Bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held. Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama's winning coalition in 2008. If Ellsworth does not start closing the gap in September when voters get to know him, then he is toast.

Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)
Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Almost every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher's main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush's problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. In many races, I believe it will get better once the Democrat starts campaigning. In this race though, Portman will be able to spend his money but the unions will be able to help Fisher due to their power here. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

7. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)
This race is another shape shifter that finally seems to have settled. First, Specter was a Republican who would face a primary against closeted conservative Pat Toomey (R) from Allentown. Specter switched parties and got another primary challenge, this time from Joe Sestak (D) from Delaware County. Specter lost the primary and gave a not so stirring concession speech. Sestak however was excited and energetic in his speech. He should be able to transfer that energy into the general election campaign. The issue is that Toomey is running to the center so he does not get Santorumed for being too conservative. Being more of an economic conservative, Toomey should have a shot at picking up suburban Philadelphia voters which Democrats must have to win in Pennsylvania. There is just one little problem: Sestak's base is in suburban Philadelphia. This is one of those races that will be very close and to win, Sestak must hold on to the suburbs.
Ranking: Toss Up

8. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)
Bennett is facing a tough primary from the not so stellar fundraiser Andrew Romanoff (D). At first, I thought this was a race the Republicans would eventually win. Then like Virginia 2006, Montana 2006 and Nevada 2010, the Republicans made some mistakes. Ken Buck (R) is facing Jane Norton (R) in the primary. He called birthers (in case you do not know, birthers are people who believe Obama was not born in this country even if a newspaper announces Obama's birth in Honolulu, Hawaii when Obama was born) dumba*ses which should play well in the general election (but not in the primary.) Also, the Governor's race has imploded for the Republicans too. Tom Tancredo (R) is running as an Independent because Scott McInnis (R) plagiarized and this should split the Republican vote. The implosion may spread to the Senate race too so stand by for further developments.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

9. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)
 In a year like 2006 or 2008, this seat would be an easy pickup for the Democrats. Even in a neutral year, the Democrats would probably win this seat. The Democrats nominated Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri's Secretary of State who won by 26 points in 2008 (she also received the largest number of votes for a candidate in Missouri history.) She did well in rural areas in that election and she has rural roots. If a Democrat wants to win in Missouri, he/she must keep down Republican margins in rural areas so urban areas allow Democrats to pull through in Missouri. Also, Carnahan is a good campaigner so it appears she is the best candidate the Democrats can find. She is the best candidate but the Republicans nominated Roy Blunt from conservative southwest Missouri. Yes, the Roy Blunt who was the Majority Whip during the Bush Administration. Most polls though show Blunt leading by a few points and this is probably because of Missouri's conservative trend. Even Obama did not win the state while winning big in the St. Louis area and doing well near Kansas City too. Also, the recent statewide primary showed high Republican turnout and low Democratic turnout. Although Carnahan should make the race closer once she starts campaigning, this race looks more and more like a Republican hold.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)
I considered taking this race off the list but I have decided to keep it here because the race could shift toward the Democrats quickly (although this seems less and less likely.) After winning a bruising primary against Daniel Mongirado (D), progressive Jack Conway (D) hopes to beat Rand Paul (R) who soundly beat the establishment's favorite Trey Grayson (R). At first, Paul resembled a gaffe machine by saying he hopes to repeal part of the Civil Rights Act. Kentucky is a conservative state (Obama only won 41% of the vote here) but even here, Conway has been able to make the race close. Paul however has zipped his lips and is not making anymore gaffes. Conway is a strong candidate but he seems to have difficulties winning in the eastern Kentucky coal counties. For a Democrat to win in Kentucky, he/she must do extremely well in eastern Kentucky and carry the 5th Congressional district to offset Republican margins in western Kentucky. Overall, this appears to be just the wrong year for Conway. If Rand Paul makes a few more gaffes though...

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Overall, expect Republicans to pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. Also, do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any rankings you want to share? Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.

Colorado Baselines 2010

A few weeks ago, it appeared that Colorado would hold two very competitive races. One race would be the Colorado Gubernatorial race. John Hickelooper (D), the mayor of Denver is facing the former Western Slope congressman Scott McInnis (R). Then McInnis plagiarized so he has imploded. One Republican, Tom Tancredo from conservative Denver suburbs has announced he will run as a Constitution Party member. With the Republican vote split, Hickelooper should win easily unless the Republicans line up with Tancredo. The Senatorial race is a more interesting story. Michael Bennett (D) will either face Jane Norton (R) or Ken Buck (R) who are both very conservative and are destroying each other in the primary. Most polls show a close race here.

Although election night is far away, I have here a map with the baselines. The baselines show how each county in Colorado will vote if the race is tied. You may have seen my earlier baseline posts on races in Maryland, Nevada, Florida and/or Oregon. I put in results from individual candidates to get baselines there but now the only results I am using for the baselines are Obama's 2008 election results. At first, it does not seem too accurate but it probably is because Obama's improvement over Kerry in 2004 was mostly uniform across the state. The only place that may go more Democratic than the map suggests is the Hispanic areas in southern Colorado. The Denver suburbs might vote more Republican but since there are two Denver area Democrats on the ticket, it could tilt the suburbs towards the Democrats. I am also expecting Democratic turnout in the Rocky Mountain counties to drop a bit if the Democrats are unable to excite voters there. Also, I will soon add exit poll baselines with demographic numbers from 2004.
Anyway, the Democrats need to win by pulling out big margins in Denver and Boulder, winning the suburban swing counties of Jefferson and Araphoe and win enough ski area counties. The Republicans need to win by winning big in Douglas and El Paso Counties. They also need to do well in rural Colorado and the Western Slope by winning big in Mesa County. Without further ado, here is the map of the baselines

Here is a link for a clearer map of Colorado: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/colorado_map.html

Dark Red: Republican 65%+
Red: Republican 55%-64%
Light Red: Republican 50%-54%
Light Blue: Democrat 50%-54%
Blue: Democrat 55%-64%
Dark Blue: Democrat 65%+
County Names Democrat Republican


Adams 54% 46%

Alamosa 53% 47%

Arapahoe 52% 48%

Archuleta 39% 61%

Baca 22% 78%

Bent 38% 62%

Boulder 69% 31%

Broomfield 51% 49%

Chaffee 45% 55%

Cheyenne 15% 85%

Clear Creek 55% 45%

Conejos 52% 48%

Costilla 70% 30%

Crowley 32% 68%

Custer 31% 69%

Delta 29% 71%

Denver 72% 28%

Dolores 27% 73%

Eagle 57% 43%

Elbert 26% 74%

El Paso 36% 64%

Fremont 31% 69%

Garfield 45% 55%

Gilpin 57% 43%

Grand 45% 55%

Gunnison 60% 40%

Hinsdale 37% 63%

Huerfano 51% 49%

Jackson 26% 74%

Jefferson 50% 50%

Kiowa 19% 81%

Kit Carson 23% 77%

Lake 58% 42%

La Plata 53% 47%

Larmier 50% 50%

Douglas 37% 63%

Las Animas 49% 51%

Lincoln 21% 79%

Logan 29% 71%

Mesa 31% 69%

Mineral 41% 59%

Moffat 24% 76%

Montezuma 36% 64%

Montrose 31% 69%

Morgan 33% 67%

Otero 40% 60%

Ouray 50% 50%

Park 42% 58%

Philips 23% 77%

Prowers 29% 71%

Pueblo 53% 47%

Rio Blanco 17% 83%

Rio Grande 41% 59%

Routt 59% 41%

Saguache 60% 40%

San Juan 50% 50%

San Miguel 73% 27%

Pitkin 70% 30%

Sedgwick 31% 69%

Summit 62% 38%

Teller 32% 68%

Washington 17% 83%

Weld 41% 59%

Yuma 21% 79%

The First Gubernatorial Rankings for 2010

You may have seen my Senate rankings that I posted about two weeks ago. Unfortunately, those rankings did not cover all the races because they just mentioned the races I believed were most likely to switch parties. In the Senate, there appeared to be a large amount of movement in what party picked up seats. In the Gubernatorial elections though, there appears to be even more movement because of many term limited Governors. Many Governorships are switching parties mostly because it is easier to become Governor based on personal popularity instead of what letter is next to your name on the ballot. In Wyoming, the Governor is Dave Freudental (D) but in Hawaii, the Governor is Linda Lingle (R). Both of these Governorships should switch parties and by looking at the polls, it appears that people are becoming more partisan. Democratic states seem to be leaning towards Democratic Governors and Republican states are leaning towards Republican Governors. There are a few exceptions though including Illinois where unpopular Pat Quinn (D) may lose to the conservative Downstate candidate Bill Brady (R) who has far right views on a woman's right to choose. Another exception is Georgia where former Governor Roy Barnes (D) is running. Right now, I am looking at the Republican getting an overall gain of 1-3 seats. Now here are the rankings:

Safe Dem (3 held seats, 1 potential Democratic pickup)
Arkansas (Beebe), Hawaii OPEN (Lingle), New Hampshire (Lynch), New York OPEN (Paterson)

Likely Dem (0 seats)

Lean Dem (4 held seats, 3 potential Democratic pickups)
Colorado OPEN (Ritter), Conneticut OPEN (Rell), Florida OPEN (Crist), Georgia OPEN (Perdue), Maine OPEN (Baldacci), Maryland (O'Malley), Oregon OPEN (Kulogoshi)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic (2 held seats, 2 potential Democratic pickups)
California OPEN (Schwarzenegger), Massachusetts (Patrick), Minnesota OPEN (Pawlenty), New Mexico OPEN (Richardson)

REAL Toss Ups (2 Democratic seats, 2 Republican seats)
Illinois (Quinn), Ohio (Strickland), Rhode Island OPEN (Carcieri), Vermont OPEN (Douglas)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican (1 held seat, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Michigan OPEN (Granholm), Texas (Perry), Wisconsin OPEN (Doyle)

Lean Republican (2 held seats, 1 potential Republican pickup)
Arizona (Brewer), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Pennsylvania OPEN (Rendell)

Likely Republican (4 held seats, 3 potential Republican pickups)
Alabama OPEN (Riley), Iowa (Culver), Nevada OPEN (Gibbons), Oklahoma OPEN (Henry), South Carolina OPEN (Sanford), Tennessee OPEN (Bredesen)

Solid Republican (4 held seats, 2 potential Republican pickups)
Alaska (Parnell), Idaho (Otter), Kansas OPEN (Parkinson), Nebraska (Heineman), South Dakota (Rounds), Utah (Herbert), Wyoming OPEN (Freudental)

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours? Please feel free to shrae your thoughts.

How Lee Fisher Can Win

 Yet again, Ohio will be a battleground state for a hard fought race. In 2004, this state was ground zero for campaigning as Bush and Kerry focused all their efforts here. Kerry did well in traditionally Democratic cities and even did well in urban swing counties. He unfortunately could not match Bush's margins in rural and suburban counties so he lost. In 2008 though, Obama turned out the cities even more. He improved in certain rural areas, most specifically the northern and western parts of the state. The area Obama was most successful in improving over Kerry was the suburbs of the big cities. Still, the national trend to Obama over Kerry was higher than the trend in Ohio. In the 2010 Senate race, Lee Fisher (D) will need to perform well to be successful in winning Ohio like Obama. Fisher is the Lieutenant Governor and he is from Cleveland. Before he was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2006 , Fisher was a State Senator from Cleveland. Polls show him in a tight race for George Voinovich's (R) open U.S Senate seat against Rob Portman (R). Besides being a former congressman from the Cincinnati area, Portman worked under the Bush Administration. Although 2010 should be a good year for Republicans, Fisher has a chance of actually picking up a Republican Senate seat by beating Portman. Fisher will soon have to face Portman's deep pockets but Fisher can still win this race. Here are some good ways for him to do that:

• Make the race about Portman and his background. Rob Portman was a U.S trade representative under the Bush Administration.  On his website, Fisher does mention how he will not be a continuation of Bush policies. Unfortunately, this strategy is starting to become stale with the Democrats' popularity falling. The strategy works though because Portman is not an outsider Republican, he was a Republican in the Bush Administration. Fisher must remind voters about how bad Bush was while portraying himself as someone with new ideas. Already, Fisher mentions on his website frequently how he  does not represent the policies that lead us into this economic decline but Portman does. Something else Fisher does well is that he has a page devoted to jobs with a detailed plan for creating them. He needs to keep focusing on jobs. It did not work for Kerry in 2004 in Ohio but it will work now.
• Focus more on the rural voters. Fisher's website does have a page for rural voters but it should be more detailed and show specific ways Fisher helped farmers and others in rural communities. Farmers and others in rural areas were the reason Bush won Ohio in 2004 so if Fisher can swing some of them to the Democrats, he should be successful. Fisher should run an ad showing how Portman wanted to cut farm subsidies by 60% while Fisher has strongly supported the 2008 farm bill and development for rural communities. Fisher highlights how he strongly fought crime and helped children in urban areas. These issues should help with votes in Cleveland, Akron and will probably play well in Columbus. Farmers working on their crops will not be thinking about crime in urban areas right now though.
• Win the rural counties near the Ohio River (also known as Southeast Ohio.) Fisher has roots in Northeast Ohio while Portman is popular in the Cincinnati and Southwest Ohio areas. The union presence may help Fisher in Southeast Ohio but if Fisher wants to win, he must run up numbers here. In 2006, successful Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland (D) and Senatorial candidate Sherrod Brown piled up large margins in these counties. In 2004, Kerry tried to win by winning big margins in Northeast Ohio. Even though he won areas outside of Northeast Ohio like Columbus and Dayton, it still was not enough to win. Overall, Kerry proved that unless you do well in rural areas (or run up margins in urban areas outside of Northeast Ohio,) you cannot win in Ohio. For Fisher to win here, he needs to highlight his family's background as eastern European immigrants. Although many voters are Scots-Irish, there is a good portion of eastern European immigrant descendants throughout Northeast Ohio and the river counties. Also, Fisher needs to highlight strongly how he helped workers rights with his support of the Paycheck Fairness Act for example.
• Win the progressive base that supported Jennifer Brunner (D) before Fisher beat her in the Senatorial primary. This should not be too hard for Fisher even though Brunner said she will not endorse him. This should not impact Fisher strongly because there is not a large progressive base in Ohio. Many of the Democrats here are more liberal on issues like the economy but are not the environment liberals you find in California or the social liberals you find in New York City. Columbus and Athens are two of the few areas where progressives are strong. Fisher is trying to appeal to the base by highlighting his work on civil rights. Also, the results from the primary show Fisher not doing poorly in progressive areas so maybe he never had any trouble with them at all.
• Match Portman on the money front. Rob Portman is beating Fisher on the money front. Fisher could consider pandering to the progressive base but that could hurt his standing among moderates. Anyway, Brunner was considered the progressive but she received little money from donors, even the progressive base. At the primary, Brunner interestingly won some rural counties with few progressives though. If Fisher successfully painted Portman as a product of the Bush Administration, he could energize some progressives which would cause him to raise money. Still, Fisher should not nationalize the race. I believe the best way for Fisher to get money is through the unions because they are powerful in Ohio and he has a record of supporting workers rights.

Overall, Fisher is running a good campaign with putting jobs as front and center and making comparisons between Portman and Bush. He is also solidifying his lead in urban Ohio by talking about how he helped reduce crime. What he needs to do is focus more on rural issues and rural voters. Highlighting his family's background as immigrants from Russia and working in the steel industry helps him along the Ohio River and strengthens him in  Northeast Ohio. Many farmers and other rural residents cannot relate to Fisher's family story though. Fisher does not give specific examples of bills he helped work on or sponsored to help rural areas. Saying you support rural residents is good but Fisher must give specific examples of how he helped them. If urban voters turn out strongly for Fisher because he highlighted important issues for them such as crime and workers rights but if Fisher also keeps down margins in rural areas, Fisher can be Ohio's next Senator.

Senate Race Rankings

These are my first rankings of any set of seats for the 2010 Congressional elections. The Senate outlook for the Democrats was at first good (this was early 2009.) Then it became poor as fall hit but now the Democrats have a stronger shot in the Senate. Still, the Republicans will pick up seats but the Democrats will still have a majority in the Senate. I am expecting the Republican to pick up 5 seats and they should lose one or two so I am looking at a 3-4 seat gain for the Republican. This is more optimistic than other rankings I have seen but Republican candidates made some mistakes and/or Democrats found the right candidates. Unfortunately, with the economy starting to slump again, the climate will be less favorable to the Democrats. Still, in many races, it is the candidate and not the climate that people are thinking about when they cast their ballots. This at first looks good for the Democrats but it actually helps the Republicans in a few states such as Illinois where Obama and Democrats are popular but Republicans are waging tough races. Enough chatter about Senate races, to the rankings!

1. North Dakota OPEN (D)
Byron Dorgan (D) retired so popular Governor John Hoeven (R) is running. The race was over before it even started.
Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)
Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D)  when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Although Blanche Lincoln came from behind to win, that should not happen this time. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All recent polls show Boozmen with a lead about 20 points. Although this race has not been polled for a couple of weeks, all indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas's next Senator.
Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)
The Democrats have had bad luck with this seat. First, Michael Castle (R), Delaware's popular representative threw his hat in the ring and Beau Biden (D), Joe Biden's son who was supposed to run jumped ship. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents...Still, expect a Michael Castle win.
Ranking: Lean Republican

4. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)
Bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held. Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama's winning coalition in 2008. I think due to the Republican lean of the state and the year's climate, Coats will win by about 5 points.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

5. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)
Michael Bennett was the former School Superintendent for Colorado and he was appointed by Bill Ritter (D) because Ken Salazar (D) was pulled out to become Secretary of the Interior. Now Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton are challenging Bennett. Also, Bennett faces a challenge from Andrew Romanoff (D) who is the former speaker for Colorado's House. Although the Republicans are not very moderate, Bennett keeps trailing them by a few points and Romanoff trails them too. Ken Buck though, the leader in the primary favors strong cuts to the Department of Education and Norton favors eliminating it. This could come back to haunt them. Most polls show Bennett winning the primary but I do not have a good feeling about this race.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

6. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)
I was debating whether I should put Ohio here but in the end, I decided that this spot belonged to Missouri. Christopher Bond, one of the dwindling group of reasonable Republicans is now retiring. A not so reasonable Republican, Roy Blunt (R) from southwest Missouri is running to replace Bond. Blunt is the former House Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. The Democrats found a good candidate in Robin Carnahan (D), a member of a strong political family and the Secretary of State. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Blunt with a 5 point lead but Rasmussen is known to be biased toward the right. The latest non Rasmussen poll was in March and it showed Blunt with a 4 point lead. Missouri has a strong rural conservative base but Carnahan has her advantages. She won by 26 points in 2010, losing only 10 counties so she proved she can win rural areas. Also, her family owns a farm so she can highlight her rural roots. This is why I believe that once Carnahan starts campaigning, the race will become very close.
Ranking: Toss Up

7. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)
Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher's main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush's problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.
Ranking: Toss Up

8. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)
Really good candidates, especially those whose names are spelled L-I-S-A M-A-D-I-G-A-N decided not to run so we have Alexi Giannoulis (D) who is the State Treasurer. He is young but his family's bank problems are not. Mark Kirk (R), the moderate Republican from Chicago suburbs and candidate for Senate appeared to have an advantage because of this. He still did not think that gave him a strong enough lead so he decided he could woo voters by bragging about military credentials...he forgot he did not have. Now the race is closer and I think due to the Democratic lean of the state, Giannoulis will win by a couple of points.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

9. Nevada Harry Reid (D)
The Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid will be facing Sharron Angle (R) a State Senator from Washoe County. Harry Reid is very unpopular in Nevada but neither is Sharron Angle. Her beliefs range from wanting to eliminate social security, the Department of Education, support of Scientology and that Abraham Lincoln lost all his elections but President (he lost only one election is his whole lifetime.) Also, Angle faces another problem because as of last month, Harry Reid has $12 million COH (cash on hand) and Angle has only $138,000. Recent polls show this race close because many people have not heard about Angle just yet. She is trying to hide her opinions though by saying Harry Reid cannot quote them and she seems shocked that people are monitoring everything she says. Angle...welcome to the world of campaigning. Harry Reid is still unpopular but I expect him to win by a few points. In Nevada, you can vote for "None of these candidates" and I would not be surprised if they won.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)
Once Bunning realized he had a poor shot at hitting a home run and winning again, he decided to bail out of the race. Rand Paul (R), the son on Ron Paul (R) is now running against Jack Conway (D). At first, it appeared that teabagger Paul would win this race until he revealed how much he hated big government. He thought that government could not prevent businesses from discriminating. Then he flip flopped and believes the U.S needs to use government spending to build a border fence. Conway is a good candidate but Kentucky is too conservative for him and this is not a good year for Democrats.
Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

What to watch this election night for California races

On May 18th, everyone called that day the Super Tuesday for primaries. They apparently were not thinking about this Tuesday, June 8th. Today, about a dozen states are holding their primaries. Some states like Virginia only have primaries for House and State legislature while states like Arkansas have very contested Senatorial primaries. The state I will examine is my home state, California. Today, we have important primaries for many of our statewide seats. California had the potential to have even more. First, Jerry Brown sealed the Democratic nomination once Newsom dropped out of the primary although polls showed he did not have a strong chance. Although no one has dropped out of the Gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican primaries, Fiorina and Whitman are leading by more than 20 points in most polls. In March, Whitman was leading by 40 points and in early May, her lead was in the single digits. She came ahead again by writing herself another check so she has spent the most money of any candidate ever. Fiorina earned her money after running Hewlett Packard to the ground and she is now using that to defeat Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore. I see Chuck DeVore signs all around but he is not winning, he just has very enthusiastic supporters. The races I will examine are both Attorney General Primaries, the Lieutenant Governor priamry and Prop 16. I will discuss what to watch in each of them and here are the three most important factors: turnout, turnout and turnout.

For the Democrats Attorney General primary, the candidates are San Francisco Attorney Kamala Harris, Facebook's former privacy officer Chris Kelly, Rocky Delgadillo from the Los Angeles area, Pedro Nava from Santa Barbara and Ted Lieu. The three main candidates are Harris, Kelly and Delgadillo although polls show the race is between Kelly and Harris. A recent Survey USA poll showed Harris leading by 6 points. For Harris to win, she needs to win big margins in the Bay Area. Kelly should win big in the Los Angeles area although Harris received the LA Times endorsement. Delgadillo though might steal votes from Kelly, especially among Hispanics. The Survey USA poll has Kelly and Delgadillo tied in the Inland Empire. While watching the returns, ask yourself these questions: is Harris getting the margins she needs in the Bay Area and the Central Valley? Is Kelly winning in the Inland Empire or is he tied with Delgadillo? Most importantly, is Kelly crushing Harris in Los Angeles or is it a three way tie?


In the Republican Attorney General primary, Steve Cooley from Los Angeles goes against Orange County State Senator Tom Harman and teabagger John Eastman. Cooley is the more moderate candidate and he is establishment backed. This resembles many previous primaries this year where most people voted for teabaggers. The problem was that the teabagger divided the vote, allowing the establishment candidate to receive the nomination. This may happen in this election because a recent Survey USA poll showed Cooley leading by five points. Although Cooley is popular in the Los Angeles area, Eastman should win Orange County because he is from there. The Survey USA poll shows Harman leading in Northern California even though he has no strong connection to the area. Remember to ask yourself these questions while the results arrive: how high is the Los Angeles area turnout? Is Harman actually winning in the Bay Area and the Central Valley or is Eastman splitting the vote with him? Most importantly, who is winning the Inland Empire?

The Lieutenant Governor primaries are less active. For the Republicans, moderate Abel Maldonado is leading against Nevada County conservative Sam Aanestad. Maldonado has his Central Valley state Senate open with a close race brewing. This is another blog post for another time though. The Democrats have a more interesting race. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom faces Janice Hahn, the sister of a former Los Angeles mayor. Although the Hahn family is popular in LA, the LA Times endorsed Newsom. Although Newsom should probably win by getting high turnout from the Bay Area, Hahn may get close if there is low turnout. Newsom needs to win big margins in Northern California while keeping down her margins in Southern California. Although the state’s main political divide is Coastal vs. Inland California in the general election now, the primaries still have the NorCal vs. SoCal divide. While the results come in, ask yourself these questions: Is Hahn winning LA County by more than 30 points? Is Newsom winning the Bay Area by more than 30 points? If Hahn is winning the Inland Empire, is she winning it in the double digits? Most importantly, how high is the Bay Area turnout?

Prop 16 is the last race I will examine but it is very intriguing. PG&E put Prop 16 on the ballot and they are spending $46 million so it will pass. The ads claim it is about the taxpayers right to vote but they “forget” to mention it has to be 2/3 of the taxpayers. If passed, PG&E has its competition eliminated and it can raise electricity rates. If a county does not like that and wants to start a new electricity provider, it will not be able to. PG&E will start spending to prevent 2/3 of the people from supporting a new one and PG&E should get at least 1/3 of the voters to support PG&E. A Survey USA poll had the No side leading by 4 points. The poll also showed that minorities are split on their opinions of Prop 16 as well as LA County. Also, a good number of Republicans are against Prop 16 but many Democrats are for it. I would expect San Diego and Orange Counties to go strongly for Prop 16 because many people there care about taxes. The poll also showed the Central Valley mostly opposing Prop 16. You should remember these questions to ask yourself while the results come in: is the Central Valley actually opposing Prop 16? How high is the margin and the turnout in the Bay Area? Most importantly, which side is winning LA County?